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我就一手希尔伯克A
09-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来增发那天,我很幸运的加仓了些,这几天走势很好。 蔚来社区之前的唱空者,吃屎者少了很多。但看了一些逆天虎友的发言,有点明白为蔚来车黑都是些什么人。 我简单分析下当时加仓思路。 首先,蔚来增发,无疑是因为流动资金周转紧张,准备几万辆es8交付显然是一项巨大的工作,半年度财报账面流动资金才七十亿,显然需要大量现金。 根据公开报告,蔚来es8的第一代 ES8 的起售价 44.8 万元,但 BOM(物料清单)成本接近 40 万元。 这种不计成本的用料理念,一直延续到了第二代 ES8。第二代 ES8 切换到 NT2.0 平台仍在做加法,全系标配 33 个感知硬件、四颗 Orin X 芯片,采用双腔空气悬架+CDC 动态阻尼控制系统,车辆起售价格也从原来的 44.8 万元涨到了 49.6 万元,所以BOM不可能下降,估计在四十万以上。 到了现在的第三代es8,根据中信证券报告显示,对比第二代蔚来 ES8,新 ES8 的 BOM 成本下降了 18.6%,按之前40万算,物料成本显然也超过30万。 我们简单计算下,30万一辆,准备5万辆,需要的资金就高达150亿人民币。 这是蔚来必须增发的基本原因,这也是为什么机构踊跃认购的原因,显然他们知道蔚来es8大卖。 对某些黑子来说,不仅数学不好,逻辑思维也不好,完全就是硬黑,于是踏空了,自然就恼羞成怒了。 下图发言,你们能找到多少槽点?[笑哭]
我就一手希尔伯克A
2024-04-18
好事,早就该裁员了,理想人均销售额1200万,蔚来不到400万。 蔚来员工现在31000,控制在20000人差不多。
市场消息:蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜
我就一手希尔伯克A
08-21
$蔚来(NIO)$
买了六年蔚来股票,跑输大盘,但依然长期看好[害羞] ,希望下个六年能跑赢大盘。
我就一手希尔伯克A
2024-04-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
想把es8都卖了换ec7,一问置换价亏了65%。 想了想,还是把买车计划放一放,换成蔚来股票放三年吧。 三年后股票再跌一半到,也可以买个二手ec7,股票涨一倍就直接et9,我简直是大聪明[贱笑] 。
我就一手希尔伯克A
08-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
已4.6买入一万股,现在蔚来市值甚至低于小鹏,明显是被过度低估了,蔚来的估值应该超过小鹏,起码和理想差不多。 唱空不做空,就是一场空。 建议唱空的同志也真正行动起来。
我就一手希尔伯克A
07-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
买爆了,这价格。
我就一手希尔伯克A
2020-04-29
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
唯一的问题,才买了一手。。。
我就一手希尔伯克A
08-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
$理想汽车(LI)$
周日去了万象城看车,理想、蔚来两家店面对面,蔚来客流量是理想的3-5倍,隔壁乐道和理想差不多。蔚来你这样赤裸裸摆在理想门口diss增程,求生欲也是拉满了,但这点作战强度,友商应该可以承受?
我就一手希尔伯克A
2019-12-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
哎,会买是徒弟,会卖才是师傅。
我就一手希尔伯克A
07-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
如果中国电车市场都是**和小米,那是多么悲哀的事情,蔚来罪不至死。
我就一手希尔伯克A
09-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
以当前总股本22.65亿股计算,此次增发将稀释约7.4%股权,跌个10%很正常,做空的可以开心一段时间了,加油空吧,5块补仓。
我就一手希尔伯克A
09-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
笑死我了,暴跌暴涨,看到了各种乐子人表演,看多看少的我都支持,只要你晒单。
我就一手希尔伯克A
2019-11-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这么明显的诱空。。。
我就一手希尔伯克A
2019-11-13
$36氪(KRKR)$
3块钱差不多可以进
我就一手希尔伯克A
09-10
为啥呢?
蔚来申请在新加坡交易所暂停交易
我就一手希尔伯克A
2023-11-17
最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。
化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义
我就一手希尔伯克A
09-08
谁在做空都不知道,你这股票也不用炒了
我就一手希尔伯克A
2019-12-20
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
9亿的流入?别吓我。。。
我就一手希尔伯克A
2019-12-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
马斯克甚至撒尿都快,跟消防水枪似的。”SpaceX前高级工程师凯文·布罗根回忆说,“他真的很匆忙。”(来源:Business Insider)好吧,冲着这个,我也要买一手特斯拉股票。
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蔚来员工现在31000,控制在20000人差不多。","listText":"好事,早就该裁员了,理想人均销售额1200万,蔚来不到400万。 蔚来员工现在31000,控制在20000人差不多。","text":"好事,早就该裁员了,理想人均销售额1200万,蔚来不到400万。 蔚来员工现在31000,控制在20000人差不多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296573740388600","repostId":"2428550111","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428550111","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1713432527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428550111?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-18 17:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428550111","media":"智通财经","summary":"蔚来中国人力资源部门将在未来几天召开会议但不确定裁员的程度或具体条款。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据报道,蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜,以应对市场压力和销量下降。公司人力资源部门将在未来几天召开会议,但不确定裁员的程度及具体条款。</p><p>据此前报道,去年11月份李斌发布全员信表示公司人员将优化10%,并且三年内不提升财务表现的项目将被推迟和削减,以确保长期竞争力。而在12月份又有媒体报道蔚来将扩大裁员比例,对此蔚来方面曾表示没有进一步裁员计划。</p></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2428550111","content_text":"据报道,蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜,以应对市场压力和销量下降。公司人力资源部门将在未来几天召开会议,但不确定裁员的程度及具体条款。据此前报道,去年11月份李斌发布全员信表示公司人员将优化10%,并且三年内不提升财务表现的项目将被推迟和削减,以确保长期竞争力。而在12月份又有媒体报道蔚来将扩大裁员比例,对此蔚来方面曾表示没有进一步裁员计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1.1,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578915251371542","authorId":"3578915251371542","name":"天才一一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578915251371542","authorIdStr":"3578915251371542"},"content":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。","text":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。","html":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293129175253200,"gmtCreate":1712584272490,"gmtModify":1712585081958,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401d68d106adc3f843f90af23ed4e92","width":"1080","height":"2310"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293129175253200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554955583528736","authorId":"3554955583528736","name":"Jeremy_1092","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f04ed86a42fa7c7aa67c0f426a8a723e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554955583528736","authorIdStr":"3554955583528736"},"content":"我这么三年下来,已经两辆ES8进去了,现在连半辆ET5都没剩下。李斌真的对不起我","text":"我这么三年下来,已经两辆ES8进去了,现在连半辆ET5都没剩下。李斌真的对不起我","html":"我这么三年下来,已经两辆ES8进去了,现在连半辆ET5都没剩下。李斌真的对不起我"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286692415348784,"gmtCreate":1711013356756,"gmtModify":1711013358638,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"et5风格类似沃尔沃风格,我很喜欢","listText":"et5风格类似沃尔沃风格,我很喜欢","text":"et5风格类似沃尔沃风格,我很喜欢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286692415348784","repostId":"286685914497040","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":286685914497040,"gmtCreate":1711009088326,"gmtModify":1711009090136,"author":{"id":"9000000000000283","authorId":"9000000000000283","name":"雷斯司机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66be84645eeac71f62d4ad271c145cd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000283","authorIdStr":"9000000000000283"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看过蔚来门店实车,也试驾了一下。就我个人而言,感觉总体不值他的价钱。主要是内饰用料,不管环不环保啥的,都就是不够豪华,比同价位BBA差一些。尤其是ET5,这个车如此局促,用料不豪华,怎么能卖30万? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">$蔚来(NIO.SI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"看过蔚来门店实车,也试驾了一下。就我个人而言,感觉总体不值他的价钱。主要是内饰用料,不管环不环保啥的,都就是不够豪华,比同价位BBA差一些。尤其是ET5,这个车如此局促,用料不豪华,怎么能卖30万? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">$蔚来(NIO.SI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"看过蔚来门店实车,也试驾了一下。就我个人而言,感觉总体不值他的价钱。主要是内饰用料,不管环不环保啥的,都就是不够豪华,比同价位BBA差一些。尤其是ET5,这个车如此局促,用料不豪华,怎么能卖30万? $蔚来(NIO)$ $蔚来(NIO.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286685914497040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264868981776640,"gmtCreate":1705687710144,"gmtModify":1705687715165,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这就是为什么我不买大G的原因。","listText":"这就是为什么我不买大G的原因。","text":"这就是为什么我不买大G的原因。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7137f9eeade598b479098ed321a2d998"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264868981776640","repostId":"2404850873","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2404850873","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"蔚来官方公众账号","home_visible":1,"media_name":"蔚来","id":"1061141779","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/461b3743fad24c09a80e713f39da6adf"},"pubTimestamp":1705659660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2404850873?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-19 18:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为了优雅地上下车,人们究竟有多努力","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2404850873","media":"蔚来","summary":"说说你觉得最优雅的上下车方式是什么?欢迎在评论区分享我们将选出3位朋友,送上NIO Life精品马克杯 \n\n文章原文","content":"<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f24f2ed87145dea30c91696a7bce10\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2918ea64fe844ee394b48cf26f71f0e1\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527d586c272147db8c43fd0d34e42e3f\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64c0beadcba40fa948ce7969e6306c0\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db2a48031be44bcc9eca9efbe66a4c29\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6dfbfe070d4f49aee40ac6e6dd0595\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e04a9495f640b69d85403b2bcf439f\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5a43b90b2c44f38b8bb8c06457a3a4\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9de8bc74cc45b8aff4778aea8c8a77\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dab13b3545439cae9917e7513ce59a\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383cd7ac3657407083b6cbb244da9adb\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p> 说说你觉得最优雅的上下车方式是什么?</p><p>欢迎在评论区分享</p><p>我们将选出3位朋友,送上NIO Life精品马克杯</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9725dac4f224f6da05781c6e2eee7d3\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c16d3ba044458d99da70d4ccfbc507\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a81dbd14c84715b195e2cd7275b8d9\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f04a35a9f7e4cd1bd9c9da2cdb49358\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa141c9d50844e8b62c96b1c3bb7d48\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae3513666e2499c89eda1d9f3159447\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df3680087b842889f2fdf863742bf96\"/></p></div>\n<br/>\n文章原文\n<br/>\n<img height=\"1px\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5fe6e4f6afb42d09d3416eb4ad2ea2d\" width=\"1px\"/>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为了优雅地上下车,人们究竟有多努力</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为了优雅地上下车,人们究竟有多努力\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1061141779\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/461b3743fad24c09a80e713f39da6adf);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">蔚来 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-19 18:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f24f2ed87145dea30c91696a7bce10\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2918ea64fe844ee394b48cf26f71f0e1\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527d586c272147db8c43fd0d34e42e3f\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64c0beadcba40fa948ce7969e6306c0\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db2a48031be44bcc9eca9efbe66a4c29\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6dfbfe070d4f49aee40ac6e6dd0595\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e04a9495f640b69d85403b2bcf439f\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5a43b90b2c44f38b8bb8c06457a3a4\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9de8bc74cc45b8aff4778aea8c8a77\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dab13b3545439cae9917e7513ce59a\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383cd7ac3657407083b6cbb244da9adb\" width=\"100%\"/></p><p> 说说你觉得最优雅的上下车方式是什么?</p><p>欢迎在评论区分享</p><p>我们将选出3位朋友,送上NIO Life精品马克杯</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9725dac4f224f6da05781c6e2eee7d3\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c16d3ba044458d99da70d4ccfbc507\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a81dbd14c84715b195e2cd7275b8d9\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f04a35a9f7e4cd1bd9c9da2cdb49358\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa141c9d50844e8b62c96b1c3bb7d48\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae3513666e2499c89eda1d9f3159447\"/> </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df3680087b842889f2fdf863742bf96\"/></p></div>\n<br/>\n文章原文\n<br/>\n<img height=\"1px\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5fe6e4f6afb42d09d3416eb4ad2ea2d\" width=\"1px\"/>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK6125":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4NjAxMzM2Mg==&mid=2750325273&idx=1&sn=53cc3a2a7ad368a6226db75bf07ba7da&chksm=cdf960c4fa8ee9d2dfd3fe9b5ea677e3b14c0431953159cf004263c0bdf23be6809cfd445229#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2404850873","content_text":"说说你觉得最优雅的上下车方式是什么?欢迎在评论区分享我们将选出3位朋友,送上NIO Life精品马克杯 \n\n文章原文","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO":0.62,"NIO.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256648741306496,"gmtCreate":1703691877098,"gmtModify":1703691878679,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"穷人思维就是这样的,认为便宜就是好。便宜车市场上已经很多了,你可以去买那些车。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4109416008385830\">@Ohwgo</a>:说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","listText":"穷人思维就是这样的,认为便宜就是好。便宜车市场上已经很多了,你可以去买那些车。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4109416008385830\">@Ohwgo</a>:说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","text":"穷人思维就是这样的,认为便宜就是好。便宜车市场上已经很多了,你可以去买那些车。//@Ohwgo:说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256648741306496","repostId":"256643952447680","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":256643952447680,"gmtCreate":1703690846027,"gmtModify":1703690847611,"author":{"id":"4109416008385830","authorId":"4109416008385830","name":"Ohwgo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ab0fac32f7e1f5ece18a349be8a291","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109416008385830","authorIdStr":"4109416008385830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","listText":"说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","text":"说的太对了,不出低价车没有前途的,要顺应社会,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256643952447680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242523345228008,"gmtCreate":1700231019311,"gmtModify":1700231021606,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","listText":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","text":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242523345228008","repostId":"2384339368","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2384339368","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1700208256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2384339368?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-17 16:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2384339368","media":"格隆汇","summary":"对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。","content":"<html><body><p><span>近年来,伴随着中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。</span></p><p>近期,关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a><span>(NIO.US)</span><span>业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。</span></p><p>事实上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企的痛点——在新能源汽车行业发展到了技术创新为重的阶段,对研发的投入加大必不可少,但也导致大部分车企处于亏损状态。</p><p>一分为二来看,蔚来其实是一家坚持长期主义的公司。根据财报数据,截至2023年6月30日,蔚来现金储备达到了315亿元。手握丰厚的资金,并大额加注研发,这本身就代表了蔚来的发展态度:为了长期发展,增加前瞻性的投入。从这个层面来看,亏损并不是一件坏事,因为蔚来仍然坚持长期投资、筑牢根基的发展目标,而不是把目光放在短期的商业回报上。</p><p>资本市场一般将这种情况称之为“战略性亏损”。对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。</p><p><font color=\"#dc143c\"><b>一、何为战略性亏损?</b></font></p><p>一般来说,战略性亏损常见于互联网公司,最为典型的案例当属<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、滴滴。</p><p>其中,滴滴的战略性亏损的耗资规模最大。数据显示,经过23轮融资之后,滴滴的累计融资金额至少达到220亿美元以上。今年三季度,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场所占有的份额高达60%,公司核心平台交易达到35.79亿单,同比增长34%,网约车活跃司机达到586万。</p><p>当前,国内的网约车竞争激烈程度与当年相比已经不可同日而语,但遭遇了中概股风波的滴滴,依然在大多数网约车平台单量未出现明显增长,甚至略有下滑的情况下,拿到了市场复苏的绝大部分增量。就滴滴当前的体量而言,依旧是国内网约车市场当之无愧的No.1。</p><p>相比之下,京东的战略性亏损周期最长,连亏10年,直到2016年才实现首次年度盈利。这十年,京东选择了一条“异常难走”的路——投入巨资打造物流体系。尽管这曾经带来了数十年的净投入“包袱”,但由此建立起与“四通一达”截然不同的完整的物流及供应链服务平台,从B2B的仓储中心到B2C的最后一公里快递服务。</p><p>当前,京东在物流方面的投入早已进入收获期,同时孵化了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>两家上市公司及京东数科这家互联网金融独角兽。</p><p>聚焦到新能源汽车领域,战略性亏损的案例也并不少见。以电动汽车行业中的领头羊——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为例,当年特斯拉多年不赚钱的情况大家早已烂熟于心。</p><p>特斯拉自成立以来,连续16年挣扎在亏损的“泥潭”。在2017年,其净亏损更是超过22亿美元(折合人民币超160亿元)。</p><p>但是特斯拉倒闭了吗?</p><p>事实证明并没有,2018年二季度,特斯拉迎来了转机,实现亏损收窄,并于2020年实现了全年盈利。当前,特斯拉的市值已经超过了7700亿美元,并在五年的时间内大涨近1000%,为长期投资者带来丰厚回报。</p><p>总的来说,通过战略性亏损,京东建立了供应链体系,滴滴占据了巨大的流量入口,特斯拉成为了电动汽车行业的霸主。以上历史经验无一不在说明一个事实,在新兴市场或赛道上做好前期大规模投入的准备,不可避免会出现战略性亏损的情况,但这也一度定义了这些公司的高估值。</p><p><b><font color=\"#dc143c\">二、大笔投入的背后,蔚来获得了什么?</font></b></p><p>回到蔚来的话题,蔚来当前所处的阶段与盈利前的特斯拉极为相似。从当前蔚来的动作来看,无疑是在为其长期发展“交学费”,以筑牢底层技术基础。</p><p>企业在研发上的投入,往往体现在其拥有的专利数量上。蔚来于过去五年半的时间内,在技术研发领域的投入已经接近330亿元,当前已经形成了诸多阶段成果。一份公开数据显示,蔚来在多项专利数据方面,在新势力队伍中保持领先。就全球总数来看,蔚来以6390件保持绝对第一,比排在第二位的车企多将近3000件。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/594c0-c1fe721c-1e83-4111-869d-b4abb2b4b3e3.jpg\"/></p><p>那么,必要的研发投入、远超同行的专利数,给蔚来带来了什么?在笔者看来,可以从产品品质和技术全栈两方面进行解读。</p><p><b>其一,带来了蔚来过硬的产品品质。</b>一直以来,蔚来为保证产品品质属于一流,在研发方面加大投入,最大力度的保证了品质到位。在今年下半年,蔚来有三款车获得全球最权威安全测试机构之一Euro NCAP欧盟新车安全评鉴协会五星安全评级(2023新规)。这一鉴定严格而高水平,意味着蔚来的整车品质已属于世界一流。</p><p>而蔚来一直坚持的硬核品质,既为蔚来带来良好口碑,亦在潜移默化引领着国内高端纯电市场。根据2023年1-10月高端品牌销量增速榜单显示,蔚来的同比增速是其他品牌的数倍。在30万以上的高端纯电动市场,蔚来的市场占有率已经超过60%,蔚来有力的带动了中国汽车品牌的高端化发展。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/93502-72478be6-9983-494d-8b8c-1349f0f7c45f.jpg\"/></p><p><b>其二,必要研发投入带来了完善的技术全栈和底层创新能力。</b>蔚来将其技术创新布局称之为“蔚来技术全栈”,包括了芯片和车载<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>硬件、电池系统、电驱及高压系统、车辆工程、整车全域操作系统、全景互联、智能驾驶、智能座舱、智慧能源、智能制造、人工智能、全球数字运营在内的12项关键技术领域。</p><p>在今年的蔚来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>日中,围绕“蔚来技术全栈”布局,蔚来整车全域操作系统天枢<span>SkyOS、其自研的第一款芯片产品“杨戬”、NIO Link蔚来全景互联、跨域融合超算集群</span><span>CCC等多项全新技术与新产品悉数亮相。这不仅让蔚来实现了在整车研发的各个领域长期发展和创新,亦积极推动了智能电动汽车技术变革,也让蔚来在更为“内卷”的电动汽车市场中更具有竞争资本。</span></p><p>值得一提的是,今年二季度,蔚来完成了5款二代新车的高质量上市和交付,验证了公司快速迭代产品和管理多款产品复杂度的能力。今年三季度,蔚来交付量再创新高,值得注意的是,该成绩是在公司保持价格体系基本稳定的情况下获得的,该交付量更具有含金量。今年下半年,蔚来在纯电车企的月收入排行中也处于遥遥领先的地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b15a6-31103a0a-3394-4e8a-aa29-98181ccbf11c.jpg\"/></p><p>由此看来,蔚来一直以来坚持的长期主义理念的投入,正在不断收获果实。鉴于当前蔚来的整体运营效率在逐步提升,未来随着销量释放和投入保持稳定规模,摊折稀释效应加强,将进一步摊薄单车成本,带动蔚来整体毛利的提升,蔚来的亏损有望出现明显收窄。</p><p><font color=\"#dc143c\"><b>三、蔚来仍有“未来”</b></font></p><p>投资,投的是企业的未来价值。拉长时间周期来看,企业的股价走势和一时的盈亏关系不大,而是与业务发展、核心技术、战略方向、决策机制等方面相挂钩。</p><p>除了在新能源汽车领域的大额投入,蔚来也在持续推进服务及补能基建体系的建设,力求补能服务向更多应用场景拓展。数据显示,蔚来10月份在中国市场自建了254座充换电站,充换电站总数达到了5401座,超出第二名特斯拉两倍有余。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/2dff1-7ce034fc-2b3e-4c5c-826f-5393105a6903.png\"/></p><p>与此同时,蔚来海外和国内的门店也在不断增加,10月份就新增了25家门店。蔚来充换电网络和门店的布局,无疑是提高了蔚来用户的用车体验感并扩大了蔚来的影响力,只是很多人认为蔚来换电站的建设和运营成本过高,全球性的铺开占用大量资金。</p><p>补能基建作为蔚来的长期投资,属于持有型“现金流资产”,处于从一次性资本开支到现金流回收的初始阶段。即使该项业务出现阶段性亏损,也不足以对某个赛道或新兴市场进行战略性的卡位。现阶段,公司通过这些项目积累的管理和运营经验,比这些资产回报本身更重要。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>曾二十年如一日的亏损,也没有阻挡它从一家在线小书店成长为万亿美元市值的科技巨头。那些未能即刻见到回报的投入,最终都化为了让“飞轮”启动的燃料。对于蔚来来说,以公司当前的现金储备、研发创新进度和成果,亏损只是其成长过程中的小插曲,公司仍然有充足的底气坚守长期主义的发展目标。虽然目前可能要牺牲更多短期利益,但足以让蔚来成就一个未来。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-17 16:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近年来,伴随着中国新能源汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。近期,关于蔚来(NIO.US)业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。事实上,蔚来的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2.png","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK6125":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2384339368","content_text":"近年来,伴随着中国新能源汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。近期,关于蔚来(NIO.US)业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。事实上,蔚来的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企的痛点——在新能源汽车行业发展到了技术创新为重的阶段,对研发的投入加大必不可少,但也导致大部分车企处于亏损状态。一分为二来看,蔚来其实是一家坚持长期主义的公司。根据财报数据,截至2023年6月30日,蔚来现金储备达到了315亿元。手握丰厚的资金,并大额加注研发,这本身就代表了蔚来的发展态度:为了长期发展,增加前瞻性的投入。从这个层面来看,亏损并不是一件坏事,因为蔚来仍然坚持长期投资、筑牢根基的发展目标,而不是把目光放在短期的商业回报上。资本市场一般将这种情况称之为“战略性亏损”。对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。一、何为战略性亏损?一般来说,战略性亏损常见于互联网公司,最为典型的案例当属京东、滴滴。其中,滴滴的战略性亏损的耗资规模最大。数据显示,经过23轮融资之后,滴滴的累计融资金额至少达到220亿美元以上。今年三季度,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场所占有的份额高达60%,公司核心平台交易达到35.79亿单,同比增长34%,网约车活跃司机达到586万。当前,国内的网约车竞争激烈程度与当年相比已经不可同日而语,但遭遇了中概股风波的滴滴,依然在大多数网约车平台单量未出现明显增长,甚至略有下滑的情况下,拿到了市场复苏的绝大部分增量。就滴滴当前的体量而言,依旧是国内网约车市场当之无愧的No.1。相比之下,京东的战略性亏损周期最长,连亏10年,直到2016年才实现首次年度盈利。这十年,京东选择了一条“异常难走”的路——投入巨资打造物流体系。尽管这曾经带来了数十年的净投入“包袱”,但由此建立起与“四通一达”截然不同的完整的物流及供应链服务平台,从B2B的仓储中心到B2C的最后一公里快递服务。当前,京东在物流方面的投入早已进入收获期,同时孵化了京东物流、京东健康两家上市公司及京东数科这家互联网金融独角兽。聚焦到新能源汽车领域,战略性亏损的案例也并不少见。以电动汽车行业中的领头羊——特斯拉为例,当年特斯拉多年不赚钱的情况大家早已烂熟于心。特斯拉自成立以来,连续16年挣扎在亏损的“泥潭”。在2017年,其净亏损更是超过22亿美元(折合人民币超160亿元)。但是特斯拉倒闭了吗?事实证明并没有,2018年二季度,特斯拉迎来了转机,实现亏损收窄,并于2020年实现了全年盈利。当前,特斯拉的市值已经超过了7700亿美元,并在五年的时间内大涨近1000%,为长期投资者带来丰厚回报。总的来说,通过战略性亏损,京东建立了供应链体系,滴滴占据了巨大的流量入口,特斯拉成为了电动汽车行业的霸主。以上历史经验无一不在说明一个事实,在新兴市场或赛道上做好前期大规模投入的准备,不可避免会出现战略性亏损的情况,但这也一度定义了这些公司的高估值。二、大笔投入的背后,蔚来获得了什么?回到蔚来的话题,蔚来当前所处的阶段与盈利前的特斯拉极为相似。从当前蔚来的动作来看,无疑是在为其长期发展“交学费”,以筑牢底层技术基础。企业在研发上的投入,往往体现在其拥有的专利数量上。蔚来于过去五年半的时间内,在技术研发领域的投入已经接近330亿元,当前已经形成了诸多阶段成果。一份公开数据显示,蔚来在多项专利数据方面,在新势力队伍中保持领先。就全球总数来看,蔚来以6390件保持绝对第一,比排在第二位的车企多将近3000件。那么,必要的研发投入、远超同行的专利数,给蔚来带来了什么?在笔者看来,可以从产品品质和技术全栈两方面进行解读。其一,带来了蔚来过硬的产品品质。一直以来,蔚来为保证产品品质属于一流,在研发方面加大投入,最大力度的保证了品质到位。在今年下半年,蔚来有三款车获得全球最权威安全测试机构之一Euro NCAP欧盟新车安全评鉴协会五星安全评级(2023新规)。这一鉴定严格而高水平,意味着蔚来的整车品质已属于世界一流。而蔚来一直坚持的硬核品质,既为蔚来带来良好口碑,亦在潜移默化引领着国内高端纯电市场。根据2023年1-10月高端品牌销量增速榜单显示,蔚来的同比增速是其他品牌的数倍。在30万以上的高端纯电动市场,蔚来的市场占有率已经超过60%,蔚来有力的带动了中国汽车品牌的高端化发展。其二,必要研发投入带来了完善的技术全栈和底层创新能力。蔚来将其技术创新布局称之为“蔚来技术全栈”,包括了芯片和车载智能硬件、电池系统、电驱及高压系统、车辆工程、整车全域操作系统、全景互联、智能驾驶、智能座舱、智慧能源、智能制造、人工智能、全球数字运营在内的12项关键技术领域。在今年的蔚来创新科技日中,围绕“蔚来技术全栈”布局,蔚来整车全域操作系统天枢SkyOS、其自研的第一款芯片产品“杨戬”、NIO Link蔚来全景互联、跨域融合超算集群CCC等多项全新技术与新产品悉数亮相。这不仅让蔚来实现了在整车研发的各个领域长期发展和创新,亦积极推动了智能电动汽车技术变革,也让蔚来在更为“内卷”的电动汽车市场中更具有竞争资本。值得一提的是,今年二季度,蔚来完成了5款二代新车的高质量上市和交付,验证了公司快速迭代产品和管理多款产品复杂度的能力。今年三季度,蔚来交付量再创新高,值得注意的是,该成绩是在公司保持价格体系基本稳定的情况下获得的,该交付量更具有含金量。今年下半年,蔚来在纯电车企的月收入排行中也处于遥遥领先的地位。由此看来,蔚来一直以来坚持的长期主义理念的投入,正在不断收获果实。鉴于当前蔚来的整体运营效率在逐步提升,未来随着销量释放和投入保持稳定规模,摊折稀释效应加强,将进一步摊薄单车成本,带动蔚来整体毛利的提升,蔚来的亏损有望出现明显收窄。三、蔚来仍有“未来”投资,投的是企业的未来价值。拉长时间周期来看,企业的股价走势和一时的盈亏关系不大,而是与业务发展、核心技术、战略方向、决策机制等方面相挂钩。除了在新能源汽车领域的大额投入,蔚来也在持续推进服务及补能基建体系的建设,力求补能服务向更多应用场景拓展。数据显示,蔚来10月份在中国市场自建了254座充换电站,充换电站总数达到了5401座,超出第二名特斯拉两倍有余。与此同时,蔚来海外和国内的门店也在不断增加,10月份就新增了25家门店。蔚来充换电网络和门店的布局,无疑是提高了蔚来用户的用车体验感并扩大了蔚来的影响力,只是很多人认为蔚来换电站的建设和运营成本过高,全球性的铺开占用大量资金。补能基建作为蔚来的长期投资,属于持有型“现金流资产”,处于从一次性资本开支到现金流回收的初始阶段。即使该项业务出现阶段性亏损,也不足以对某个赛道或新兴市场进行战略性的卡位。现阶段,公司通过这些项目积累的管理和运营经验,比这些资产回报本身更重要。亚马逊曾二十年如一日的亏损,也没有阻挡它从一家在线小书店成长为万亿美元市值的科技巨头。那些未能即刻见到回报的投入,最终都化为了让“飞轮”启动的燃料。对于蔚来来说,以公司当前的现金储备、研发创新进度和成果,亏损只是其成长过程中的小插曲,公司仍然有充足的底气坚守长期主义的发展目标。虽然目前可能要牺牲更多短期利益,但足以让蔚来成就一个未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义","text":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义","html":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397028704,"gmtCreate":1608132459908,"gmtModify":1703851379222,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532871133861998","authorIdStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397028704","repostId":"1164195357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164195357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1608131100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164195357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-16 23:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度涨8%,股价突破200美元关口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164195357","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三,百度盘中涨8%,股价突破200美元关口。百度昨日收涨13.8%,“华尔街女股神”执掌的ARK Invest于15日增持百度47.4万股,增持比例93%。近日,据路透社报道,百度正在考虑自行制造电","content":"<p>周三,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>盘中涨8%,股价突破200美元关口。百度昨日收涨13.8%,“华尔街女股神”执掌的ARK Invest于15日增持百度47.4万股,增持比例93%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d9986e928147941dcd7fefc174d4d7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>近日,据路透社报道,百度正在考虑自行制造电动汽车,或与汽车制造商组建一家合资企业,百度将持多数股权。路透社援引知情人士消息称,百度已与包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02238\">广汽集团</a>以及中国一汽集团旗下的红旗品牌等车企展开早期接洽,讨论成立合资公司的可能性,但未做出任何最后的决定。</p><p>针对该消息,百度回应称“不做评论”,吉利内部员工表示“尚不知情”,一汽红旗则表示:“虽然一汽红旗与百度在自动驾驶方面有很多合作,但对于造车一事并不知情”。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2428550111","content_text":"据报道,蔚来已开始向中国团队通报第二轮裁员事宜,以应对市场压力和销量下降。公司人力资源部门将在未来几天召开会议,但不确定裁员的程度及具体条款。据此前报道,去年11月份李斌发布全员信表示公司人员将优化10%,并且三年内不提升财务表现的项目将被推迟和削减,以确保长期竞争力。而在12月份又有媒体报道蔚来将扩大裁员比例,对此蔚来方面曾表示没有进一步裁员计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1.1,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578915251371542","authorId":"3578915251371542","name":"天才一一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578915251371542","idStr":"3578915251371542"},"content":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。","text":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。","html":"蔚来员工不热心,就是很佛系。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469872576119008,"gmtCreate":1755746217840,"gmtModify":1755859202004,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532871133861998","idStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"蔚来申请在新加坡交易所暂停交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566676507","media":"界面","summary":"蔚来9月10日在新加坡交易所公告称,申请暂停交易。","content":"<div>\n<p>蔚来9月10日在新加坡交易所公告称,申请暂停交易。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250910161118a71b9b75&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来申请在新加坡交易所暂停交易</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK1588":"回港中概股","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250910161118a71b9b75&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2566676507","content_text":"蔚来9月10日在新加坡交易所公告称,申请暂停交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541563027012124","authorId":"3541563027012124","name":"劳巴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82212a720d2b8886158c17b037c99283","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3541563027012124","idStr":"3541563027012124"},"content":"增发导致股价大跌,申请停牌","text":"增发导致股价大跌,申请停牌","html":"增发导致股价大跌,申请停牌"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242523345228008,"gmtCreate":1700231019311,"gmtModify":1700231021606,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532871133861998","idStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","listText":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","text":"最大的问题在于:如何在大环境剧变的时候活下去,蔚来的应对太慢了。 你可以有一百万个理由证明恐龙将永远成为地球霸主,但是适应不了环境巨变的终将灭亡,何况蔚来现在还不是恐龙。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242523345228008","repostId":"2384339368","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2384339368","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1700208256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2384339368?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-17 16:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2384339368","media":"格隆汇","summary":"对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。","content":"<html><body><p><span>近年来,伴随着中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。</span></p><p>近期,关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a><span>(NIO.US)</span><span>业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。</span></p><p>事实上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企的痛点——在新能源汽车行业发展到了技术创新为重的阶段,对研发的投入加大必不可少,但也导致大部分车企处于亏损状态。</p><p>一分为二来看,蔚来其实是一家坚持长期主义的公司。根据财报数据,截至2023年6月30日,蔚来现金储备达到了315亿元。手握丰厚的资金,并大额加注研发,这本身就代表了蔚来的发展态度:为了长期发展,增加前瞻性的投入。从这个层面来看,亏损并不是一件坏事,因为蔚来仍然坚持长期投资、筑牢根基的发展目标,而不是把目光放在短期的商业回报上。</p><p>资本市场一般将这种情况称之为“战略性亏损”。对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。</p><p><font color=\"#dc143c\"><b>一、何为战略性亏损?</b></font></p><p>一般来说,战略性亏损常见于互联网公司,最为典型的案例当属<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、滴滴。</p><p>其中,滴滴的战略性亏损的耗资规模最大。数据显示,经过23轮融资之后,滴滴的累计融资金额至少达到220亿美元以上。今年三季度,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场所占有的份额高达60%,公司核心平台交易达到35.79亿单,同比增长34%,网约车活跃司机达到586万。</p><p>当前,国内的网约车竞争激烈程度与当年相比已经不可同日而语,但遭遇了中概股风波的滴滴,依然在大多数网约车平台单量未出现明显增长,甚至略有下滑的情况下,拿到了市场复苏的绝大部分增量。就滴滴当前的体量而言,依旧是国内网约车市场当之无愧的No.1。</p><p>相比之下,京东的战略性亏损周期最长,连亏10年,直到2016年才实现首次年度盈利。这十年,京东选择了一条“异常难走”的路——投入巨资打造物流体系。尽管这曾经带来了数十年的净投入“包袱”,但由此建立起与“四通一达”截然不同的完整的物流及供应链服务平台,从B2B的仓储中心到B2C的最后一公里快递服务。</p><p>当前,京东在物流方面的投入早已进入收获期,同时孵化了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>两家上市公司及京东数科这家互联网金融独角兽。</p><p>聚焦到新能源汽车领域,战略性亏损的案例也并不少见。以电动汽车行业中的领头羊——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为例,当年特斯拉多年不赚钱的情况大家早已烂熟于心。</p><p>特斯拉自成立以来,连续16年挣扎在亏损的“泥潭”。在2017年,其净亏损更是超过22亿美元(折合人民币超160亿元)。</p><p>但是特斯拉倒闭了吗?</p><p>事实证明并没有,2018年二季度,特斯拉迎来了转机,实现亏损收窄,并于2020年实现了全年盈利。当前,特斯拉的市值已经超过了7700亿美元,并在五年的时间内大涨近1000%,为长期投资者带来丰厚回报。</p><p>总的来说,通过战略性亏损,京东建立了供应链体系,滴滴占据了巨大的流量入口,特斯拉成为了电动汽车行业的霸主。以上历史经验无一不在说明一个事实,在新兴市场或赛道上做好前期大规模投入的准备,不可避免会出现战略性亏损的情况,但这也一度定义了这些公司的高估值。</p><p><b><font color=\"#dc143c\">二、大笔投入的背后,蔚来获得了什么?</font></b></p><p>回到蔚来的话题,蔚来当前所处的阶段与盈利前的特斯拉极为相似。从当前蔚来的动作来看,无疑是在为其长期发展“交学费”,以筑牢底层技术基础。</p><p>企业在研发上的投入,往往体现在其拥有的专利数量上。蔚来于过去五年半的时间内,在技术研发领域的投入已经接近330亿元,当前已经形成了诸多阶段成果。一份公开数据显示,蔚来在多项专利数据方面,在新势力队伍中保持领先。就全球总数来看,蔚来以6390件保持绝对第一,比排在第二位的车企多将近3000件。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/594c0-c1fe721c-1e83-4111-869d-b4abb2b4b3e3.jpg\"/></p><p>那么,必要的研发投入、远超同行的专利数,给蔚来带来了什么?在笔者看来,可以从产品品质和技术全栈两方面进行解读。</p><p><b>其一,带来了蔚来过硬的产品品质。</b>一直以来,蔚来为保证产品品质属于一流,在研发方面加大投入,最大力度的保证了品质到位。在今年下半年,蔚来有三款车获得全球最权威安全测试机构之一Euro NCAP欧盟新车安全评鉴协会五星安全评级(2023新规)。这一鉴定严格而高水平,意味着蔚来的整车品质已属于世界一流。</p><p>而蔚来一直坚持的硬核品质,既为蔚来带来良好口碑,亦在潜移默化引领着国内高端纯电市场。根据2023年1-10月高端品牌销量增速榜单显示,蔚来的同比增速是其他品牌的数倍。在30万以上的高端纯电动市场,蔚来的市场占有率已经超过60%,蔚来有力的带动了中国汽车品牌的高端化发展。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/93502-72478be6-9983-494d-8b8c-1349f0f7c45f.jpg\"/></p><p><b>其二,必要研发投入带来了完善的技术全栈和底层创新能力。</b>蔚来将其技术创新布局称之为“蔚来技术全栈”,包括了芯片和车载<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>硬件、电池系统、电驱及高压系统、车辆工程、整车全域操作系统、全景互联、智能驾驶、智能座舱、智慧能源、智能制造、人工智能、全球数字运营在内的12项关键技术领域。</p><p>在今年的蔚来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>日中,围绕“蔚来技术全栈”布局,蔚来整车全域操作系统天枢<span>SkyOS、其自研的第一款芯片产品“杨戬”、NIO Link蔚来全景互联、跨域融合超算集群</span><span>CCC等多项全新技术与新产品悉数亮相。这不仅让蔚来实现了在整车研发的各个领域长期发展和创新,亦积极推动了智能电动汽车技术变革,也让蔚来在更为“内卷”的电动汽车市场中更具有竞争资本。</span></p><p>值得一提的是,今年二季度,蔚来完成了5款二代新车的高质量上市和交付,验证了公司快速迭代产品和管理多款产品复杂度的能力。今年三季度,蔚来交付量再创新高,值得注意的是,该成绩是在公司保持价格体系基本稳定的情况下获得的,该交付量更具有含金量。今年下半年,蔚来在纯电车企的月收入排行中也处于遥遥领先的地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b15a6-31103a0a-3394-4e8a-aa29-98181ccbf11c.jpg\"/></p><p>由此看来,蔚来一直以来坚持的长期主义理念的投入,正在不断收获果实。鉴于当前蔚来的整体运营效率在逐步提升,未来随着销量释放和投入保持稳定规模,摊折稀释效应加强,将进一步摊薄单车成本,带动蔚来整体毛利的提升,蔚来的亏损有望出现明显收窄。</p><p><font color=\"#dc143c\"><b>三、蔚来仍有“未来”</b></font></p><p>投资,投的是企业的未来价值。拉长时间周期来看,企业的股价走势和一时的盈亏关系不大,而是与业务发展、核心技术、战略方向、决策机制等方面相挂钩。</p><p>除了在新能源汽车领域的大额投入,蔚来也在持续推进服务及补能基建体系的建设,力求补能服务向更多应用场景拓展。数据显示,蔚来10月份在中国市场自建了254座充换电站,充换电站总数达到了5401座,超出第二名特斯拉两倍有余。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/2dff1-7ce034fc-2b3e-4c5c-826f-5393105a6903.png\"/></p><p>与此同时,蔚来海外和国内的门店也在不断增加,10月份就新增了25家门店。蔚来充换电网络和门店的布局,无疑是提高了蔚来用户的用车体验感并扩大了蔚来的影响力,只是很多人认为蔚来换电站的建设和运营成本过高,全球性的铺开占用大量资金。</p><p>补能基建作为蔚来的长期投资,属于持有型“现金流资产”,处于从一次性资本开支到现金流回收的初始阶段。即使该项业务出现阶段性亏损,也不足以对某个赛道或新兴市场进行战略性的卡位。现阶段,公司通过这些项目积累的管理和运营经验,比这些资产回报本身更重要。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>曾二十年如一日的亏损,也没有阻挡它从一家在线小书店成长为万亿美元市值的科技巨头。那些未能即刻见到回报的投入,最终都化为了让“飞轮”启动的燃料。对于蔚来来说,以公司当前的现金储备、研发创新进度和成果,亏损只是其成长过程中的小插曲,公司仍然有充足的底气坚守长期主义的发展目标。虽然目前可能要牺牲更多短期利益,但足以让蔚来成就一个未来。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n化茧之际:浅谈蔚来(NIO.US)的长期主义\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-17 16:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近年来,伴随着中国新能源汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。近期,关于蔚来(NIO.US)业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。事实上,蔚来的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2.png","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK6125":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/665331","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2384339368","content_text":"近年来,伴随着中国新能源汽车市场快速发展,各大新能源汽车品牌的表现备受市场关注。随着竞争加剧,新势力队伍不断壮大,除蔚小理外,哪咤、零跑、极氪等新秀品牌加入“战斗”。近期,关于蔚来(NIO.US)业绩现状及暂时亏损的消息,引发热议。事实上,蔚来的亏损早已不是新鲜事。从过去蔚来披露的财报数据来看,在研发方面持续不断地大笔投入,是延缓盈利的主要原因。不过,这也与市场趋势相符,更反映出了大部分新能源车企的痛点——在新能源汽车行业发展到了技术创新为重的阶段,对研发的投入加大必不可少,但也导致大部分车企处于亏损状态。一分为二来看,蔚来其实是一家坚持长期主义的公司。根据财报数据,截至2023年6月30日,蔚来现金储备达到了315亿元。手握丰厚的资金,并大额加注研发,这本身就代表了蔚来的发展态度:为了长期发展,增加前瞻性的投入。从这个层面来看,亏损并不是一件坏事,因为蔚来仍然坚持长期投资、筑牢根基的发展目标,而不是把目光放在短期的商业回报上。资本市场一般将这种情况称之为“战略性亏损”。对于蔚来来说,这既是公司起跳前的深蹲,也是成蝶前的化茧阶段。一、何为战略性亏损?一般来说,战略性亏损常见于互联网公司,最为典型的案例当属京东、滴滴。其中,滴滴的战略性亏损的耗资规模最大。数据显示,经过23轮融资之后,滴滴的累计融资金额至少达到220亿美元以上。今年三季度,滴滴出行在中国网约车市场所占有的份额高达60%,公司核心平台交易达到35.79亿单,同比增长34%,网约车活跃司机达到586万。当前,国内的网约车竞争激烈程度与当年相比已经不可同日而语,但遭遇了中概股风波的滴滴,依然在大多数网约车平台单量未出现明显增长,甚至略有下滑的情况下,拿到了市场复苏的绝大部分增量。就滴滴当前的体量而言,依旧是国内网约车市场当之无愧的No.1。相比之下,京东的战略性亏损周期最长,连亏10年,直到2016年才实现首次年度盈利。这十年,京东选择了一条“异常难走”的路——投入巨资打造物流体系。尽管这曾经带来了数十年的净投入“包袱”,但由此建立起与“四通一达”截然不同的完整的物流及供应链服务平台,从B2B的仓储中心到B2C的最后一公里快递服务。当前,京东在物流方面的投入早已进入收获期,同时孵化了京东物流、京东健康两家上市公司及京东数科这家互联网金融独角兽。聚焦到新能源汽车领域,战略性亏损的案例也并不少见。以电动汽车行业中的领头羊——特斯拉为例,当年特斯拉多年不赚钱的情况大家早已烂熟于心。特斯拉自成立以来,连续16年挣扎在亏损的“泥潭”。在2017年,其净亏损更是超过22亿美元(折合人民币超160亿元)。但是特斯拉倒闭了吗?事实证明并没有,2018年二季度,特斯拉迎来了转机,实现亏损收窄,并于2020年实现了全年盈利。当前,特斯拉的市值已经超过了7700亿美元,并在五年的时间内大涨近1000%,为长期投资者带来丰厚回报。总的来说,通过战略性亏损,京东建立了供应链体系,滴滴占据了巨大的流量入口,特斯拉成为了电动汽车行业的霸主。以上历史经验无一不在说明一个事实,在新兴市场或赛道上做好前期大规模投入的准备,不可避免会出现战略性亏损的情况,但这也一度定义了这些公司的高估值。二、大笔投入的背后,蔚来获得了什么?回到蔚来的话题,蔚来当前所处的阶段与盈利前的特斯拉极为相似。从当前蔚来的动作来看,无疑是在为其长期发展“交学费”,以筑牢底层技术基础。企业在研发上的投入,往往体现在其拥有的专利数量上。蔚来于过去五年半的时间内,在技术研发领域的投入已经接近330亿元,当前已经形成了诸多阶段成果。一份公开数据显示,蔚来在多项专利数据方面,在新势力队伍中保持领先。就全球总数来看,蔚来以6390件保持绝对第一,比排在第二位的车企多将近3000件。那么,必要的研发投入、远超同行的专利数,给蔚来带来了什么?在笔者看来,可以从产品品质和技术全栈两方面进行解读。其一,带来了蔚来过硬的产品品质。一直以来,蔚来为保证产品品质属于一流,在研发方面加大投入,最大力度的保证了品质到位。在今年下半年,蔚来有三款车获得全球最权威安全测试机构之一Euro NCAP欧盟新车安全评鉴协会五星安全评级(2023新规)。这一鉴定严格而高水平,意味着蔚来的整车品质已属于世界一流。而蔚来一直坚持的硬核品质,既为蔚来带来良好口碑,亦在潜移默化引领着国内高端纯电市场。根据2023年1-10月高端品牌销量增速榜单显示,蔚来的同比增速是其他品牌的数倍。在30万以上的高端纯电动市场,蔚来的市场占有率已经超过60%,蔚来有力的带动了中国汽车品牌的高端化发展。其二,必要研发投入带来了完善的技术全栈和底层创新能力。蔚来将其技术创新布局称之为“蔚来技术全栈”,包括了芯片和车载智能硬件、电池系统、电驱及高压系统、车辆工程、整车全域操作系统、全景互联、智能驾驶、智能座舱、智慧能源、智能制造、人工智能、全球数字运营在内的12项关键技术领域。在今年的蔚来创新科技日中,围绕“蔚来技术全栈”布局,蔚来整车全域操作系统天枢SkyOS、其自研的第一款芯片产品“杨戬”、NIO Link蔚来全景互联、跨域融合超算集群CCC等多项全新技术与新产品悉数亮相。这不仅让蔚来实现了在整车研发的各个领域长期发展和创新,亦积极推动了智能电动汽车技术变革,也让蔚来在更为“内卷”的电动汽车市场中更具有竞争资本。值得一提的是,今年二季度,蔚来完成了5款二代新车的高质量上市和交付,验证了公司快速迭代产品和管理多款产品复杂度的能力。今年三季度,蔚来交付量再创新高,值得注意的是,该成绩是在公司保持价格体系基本稳定的情况下获得的,该交付量更具有含金量。今年下半年,蔚来在纯电车企的月收入排行中也处于遥遥领先的地位。由此看来,蔚来一直以来坚持的长期主义理念的投入,正在不断收获果实。鉴于当前蔚来的整体运营效率在逐步提升,未来随着销量释放和投入保持稳定规模,摊折稀释效应加强,将进一步摊薄单车成本,带动蔚来整体毛利的提升,蔚来的亏损有望出现明显收窄。三、蔚来仍有“未来”投资,投的是企业的未来价值。拉长时间周期来看,企业的股价走势和一时的盈亏关系不大,而是与业务发展、核心技术、战略方向、决策机制等方面相挂钩。除了在新能源汽车领域的大额投入,蔚来也在持续推进服务及补能基建体系的建设,力求补能服务向更多应用场景拓展。数据显示,蔚来10月份在中国市场自建了254座充换电站,充换电站总数达到了5401座,超出第二名特斯拉两倍有余。与此同时,蔚来海外和国内的门店也在不断增加,10月份就新增了25家门店。蔚来充换电网络和门店的布局,无疑是提高了蔚来用户的用车体验感并扩大了蔚来的影响力,只是很多人认为蔚来换电站的建设和运营成本过高,全球性的铺开占用大量资金。补能基建作为蔚来的长期投资,属于持有型“现金流资产”,处于从一次性资本开支到现金流回收的初始阶段。即使该项业务出现阶段性亏损,也不足以对某个赛道或新兴市场进行战略性的卡位。现阶段,公司通过这些项目积累的管理和运营经验,比这些资产回报本身更重要。亚马逊曾二十年如一日的亏损,也没有阻挡它从一家在线小书店成长为万亿美元市值的科技巨头。那些未能即刻见到回报的投入,最终都化为了让“飞轮”启动的燃料。对于蔚来来说,以公司当前的现金储备、研发创新进度和成果,亏损只是其成长过程中的小插曲,公司仍然有充足的底气坚守长期主义的发展目标。虽然目前可能要牺牲更多短期利益,但足以让蔚来成就一个未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义","text":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义","html":"没有现金流,奢谈长期主义"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":476354422817664,"gmtCreate":1757301303777,"gmtModify":1757301305704,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532871133861998","idStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谁在做空都不知道,你这股票也不用炒了","listText":"谁在做空都不知道,你这股票也不用炒了","text":"谁在做空都不知道,你这股票也不用炒了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/476354422817664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919437039,"gmtCreate":1576852678921,"gmtModify":1704272587922,"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532871133861998","idStr":"3532871133861998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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