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浅水蛟龙

浅水蛟龙

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2021-06-08

short sell Tesla to $450

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-11

猜明天阿里巴巴股票会爆升吗？

2021-03-22

Tiger coin

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn "Hotter And Shorter" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>

2021-03-17

People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.

Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股价周二大幅下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-08

收皮啦，吊你

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2021-05-04

$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ is fucking rubbishgo to hell

2021-04-04

Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?

2021-03-22

Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?

The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>

2021-05-24

中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。

2021-04-23

Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage

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2021-04-23

All semicon industry die

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2021-03-30

Buy on first day

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2021-03-24

Tesla is not stupid. For those who against Tesla to buy bitcoin are idiot.

Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment<blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付</blockquote>

2021-03-18

Ducking 10 year yield, tiu lai Lou mou chao hei

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2021-03-18

I don't know what to said, just need Tiger coin

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2021-03-11

$TIGR 20210319 15.0 PUT(TIGR)$ open Tiger account to trade Tiger options

2021-07-05

$Tencent(00700)$ what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!

2021-05-02

All are rubbish

3 of Cathie Wood's Biggest Losers of 2021 That Should Still Be Huge Long-Term Winners<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)2021年最大输家中的3个仍然应该是巨大的长期赢家</blockquote>

2021-04-19

今晚Nasdaq大升，会破前新高

2021-04-04

So, what is the answer?

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","text":"$Tencent(00700)$ what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154084763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160264484,"gmtCreate":1623799981648,"gmtModify":1631893175239,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","listText":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","text":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160264484","repostId":"1147269544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147269544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147269544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147269544","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he p","content":"<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147269544","content_text":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically itshyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes nextin a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that:\n\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"\n#ParadigmShift\n\"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"\n\"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.\n\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"\n\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"\n\"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"\n\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"\n\"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #robinhooddown\n\"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"\n\"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"\nHis punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"2010-2021: Gestation\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"\nAnd, as if reading from the same playbook,Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"and if Jay Powell\n\n“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"\n\nAll of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...\n\n\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.#FlyingPigs360\"\n\nIn other words:\"Brace!\"\nSo what are you going to do about it?\nTudor Jones had some simple advice: \"buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188022217,"gmtCreate":1623417296239,"gmtModify":1631893175247,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","listText":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","text":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188022217","repostId":"1115909292","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115909292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623413127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115909292?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115909292","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or s","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游地球，或者乘坐巨型游艇永远航行。他有能力买下整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过65,000辆布加迪Chiron（底价290万美元），尽管只生产了500辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐11分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多冒险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案并不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管对于贝佐斯的太空之旅来说，风险不一定是天文数字，因为他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐该火箭进行一系列成功的试飞。（还有，进入太空是贝索斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将会做什么——参加新谢泼德号的首次载人飞行，这是一个完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在带持票人进行短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们前往外太空时将自己的生命掌握在自己手中的程度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班的样子</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一名宇航员绕地球飞行，漂浮在太空中，至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客不会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上去然后马上下来，而且他们会在比大多数人上班所需的时间更短的时间内完成——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源的新谢泼德航班将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将在地球上空62英里以上，地球被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要获得足够的动力才能达到至少17,000英里/小时，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上是为航天器提供足够的能量继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的功率和速度要小得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，烧焦航天器外部的温度更低，航天器上的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗达到了大约三倍音速——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在其飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，为乘客提供几分钟的失重状态。它的工作原理有点像当你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带着尖叫回到地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新谢泼德太空舱部署大量降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时20英里以下。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>火箭单独飞行，重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的直立着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源的新谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它的风险比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试要低。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重返地球大气层的紧张过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。随着轨道重返，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以承受4.5克的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，同时不断变厚的大气在太空舱周围跳动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球大气层通常被认为无法在50,000英尺以上的高度生存很长时间，贝佐斯将旅行到350,000英尺。但是他乘坐的太空舱将被加压，所以他不需要特殊的宇航服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新谢泼德太空舱和乘客抛离火箭。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞未能展开，也可以帮助太空舱平稳着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德出现故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行的风险低于轨道任务，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降时稳定的羽毛系统。飞机上增加的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河已经对其太空飞船二号的改进型进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到过类似的悲惨事故，尽管——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——太空是艰难的。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，这个风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游地球，或者乘坐巨型游艇永远航行。他有能力买下整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过65,000辆布加迪Chiron（底价290万美元），尽管只生产了500辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐11分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多冒险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案并不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管对于贝佐斯的太空之旅来说，风险不一定是天文数字，因为他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐该火箭进行一系列成功的试飞。（还有，进入太空是贝索斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将会做什么——参加新谢泼德号的首次载人飞行，这是一个完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在带持票人进行短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们前往外太空时将自己的生命掌握在自己手中的程度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班的样子</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一名宇航员绕地球飞行，漂浮在太空中，至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客不会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上去然后马上下来，而且他们会在比大多数人上班所需的时间更短的时间内完成——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源的新谢泼德航班将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将在地球上空62英里以上，地球被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要获得足够的动力才能达到至少17,000英里/小时，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上是为航天器提供足够的能量继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的功率和速度要小得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，烧焦航天器外部的温度更低，航天器上的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗达到了大约三倍音速——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在其飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，为乘客提供几分钟的失重状态。它的工作原理有点像当你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带着尖叫回到地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新谢泼德太空舱部署大量降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时20英里以下。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>火箭单独飞行，重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的直立着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源的新谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它的风险比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试要低。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重返地球大气层的紧张过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。随着轨道重返，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以承受4.5克的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，同时不断变厚的大气在太空舱周围跳动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球大气层通常被认为无法在50,000英尺以上的高度生存很长时间，贝佐斯将旅行到350,000英尺。但是他乘坐的太空舱将被加压，所以他不需要特殊的宇航服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新谢泼德太空舱和乘客抛离火箭。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞未能展开，也可以帮助太空舱平稳着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德出现故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行的风险低于轨道任务，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降时稳定的羽毛系统。飞机上增加的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河已经对其太空飞船二号的改进型进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到过类似的悲惨事故，尽管——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——太空是艰难的。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，这个风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115909292","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.\nJust how risky is his decision?\nThe answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)\nStill, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.\nHere's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.\nWhat the flight looks like\nWhen most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.\nThat is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .\nThey'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.\nSuborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.\nOrbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.\nSuborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.\nNew Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.\n\nThe New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.\nThe rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.\nHow big are the risks?\nBlue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.\nBecause suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.\nHigh speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.\nBut even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.\nEven though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.\nOne of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.\n(Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)\nBlue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.\nBut, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183449351,"gmtCreate":1623343980373,"gmtModify":1631893175249,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ugly design","listText":"Ugly design","text":"Ugly design","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183449351","repostId":"183564245","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183564245,"gmtCreate":1623336488287,"gmtModify":1623336488287,"author":{"id":"3494378197296027","authorId":"3494378197296027","name":"王春龙Bale","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e561afcd6e41b0d7953fc87b7c54a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494378197296027","idStr":"3494378197296027"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">$上汽集团(600104)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">$上汽集团(600104)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。$上汽集团(600104)$$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae3691ac8db27aadc4723e025e857e1","width":"1000","height":"665"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf2b7495e39370f65c066fa3e06a0c3","width":"600","height":"913"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca124c5596d590c65b2aaa30d12b5644","width":"800","height":"535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183564245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183457325,"gmtCreate":1623343828467,"gmtModify":1631893175252,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","listText":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","text":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183457325","repostId":"1107871315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117428124,"gmtCreate":1623158417568,"gmtModify":1631893175255,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"short sell Tesla to $450","listText":"short sell Tesla to $450","text":"short sell Tesla to 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10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104593890,"gmtCreate":1620396584310,"gmtModify":1634205527192,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地吸引力","listText":"地吸引力","text":"地吸引力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104593890","repostId":"104215152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":104215152,"gmtCreate":1620393479876,"gmtModify":1744855390078,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3489725211341675","idStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"美股盘前： 非农爆冷！纳指期货大涨150点 道指期货跳水转跌","htmlText":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","listText":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","text":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a94b69cc0a72bb2dbfbb5c6c530c5c5","width":"800","height":"533"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104215152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":117428124,"gmtCreate":1623158417568,"gmtModify":1631893175255,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"short sell Tesla to $450","listText":"short sell Tesla to $450","text":"short sell Tesla to 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除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]","text":"不会 除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]","html":"不会 除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359126377,"gmtCreate":1616375454099,"gmtModify":1634526194770,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger coin","listText":"Tiger coin","text":"Tiger coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359126377","repostId":"1169559774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169559774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169559774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169559774","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought ","content":"<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:<b>Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?</b>COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast that<b>conditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.</b></p><p><blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：<b>这是一个“新”周期吗？</b>新冠肺炎让全球经济戛然而止，而积极的政策应对推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都太快了<b>情况永远不会像经济衰退期间那样“重置”。</b></blockquote></p><p> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!</p><p><blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退毗邻：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；和3)全球大流行。如果您正在寻找“正常”衰退，祝您好运！</blockquote></p><p> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三家公司在开始前约6个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂。这三者都遵循了美联储加息周期，核心CPI同比均高于2.4%。在这三个时期之前，消费者信心高、失业率低和股市广度下降。</blockquote></p><p> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,<b>we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.</b></p><p><blockquote>这些有太多的相似之处。他们会一直持续到康复。自2020年4月活动低点以来，“正常”的早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动计算，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它走路像新周期，说话像新周期，<b>我们认为投资者应该将其视为一个新的周期。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这一周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这一周期可能会异常火爆。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The first is stimulus.</b>The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>首先是刺激。</b>全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。在我们的业务中，“前所未有”是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他衰退后时期中是合格且独特的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>The second is savings.</b>Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>二是储蓄。</b>美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分布不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对COVID-19不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的恢复，这种不确定性可能会影响支出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Third is the labor market.</b>Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>三是劳动力市场。</b>我们的经济学家指出，最近的大部分失业发生在与COVID-19相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的回归，我们可能会看到异常快速的劳动力正常化，这似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Finally, there is the future path of policy.</b>Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>最后是政策的未来路径。</b>全球央行正在发出坚定承诺支持增长并将通胀恢复到更正常的水平的信号。各国政府没有表现出最终提高税收或削减支出的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策收紧的限制。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.<b>But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.</b>Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.</p><p><blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。<b>但是就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。</b>与过去40年的长期扩张不同，这次扩张可能看起来更类似于20世纪40年代末或50年代。</blockquote></p><p> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.</p><p><blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年的扩张。咆哮的二十年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的经济衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年出现了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续了三年。</blockquote></p><p> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.<b>If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.</b></p><p><blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同部分发挥作用。<b>如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑轮换出早期周期的赢家。</b></blockquote></p><p> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleague<b>Michael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps</b>(see<i>US Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021</i>), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.</p><p><blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷都是我们喜欢的策略。但随着周期的延长，所有这些都表现不佳。我的同事<b>迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股的评级</b>（见<i>美股策略：周度预热：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益&gt;倍数，2021年3月15日</i>），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.<b>Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag</b>. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.</p><p><blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和区域领导力也可能发生显着变化。<b>从历史上看，新兴市场股市在经济衰退后表现最好，但随后会滞后</b>随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is the<b>US breakeven expectations curve</b>. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...</p><p><blockquote>天气会不会太热？我密切关注的一个指标是<b>美国盈亏平衡预期曲线</b>目前，它反映了未来2-5年通胀的适度超调...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.</p><p><blockquote>...此后通胀水平较低。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹着。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.</p><p><blockquote>只要该曲线保持倒挂，市场就表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行几乎没有必要大幅改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是一个由最近的经验驱动的期望的例子。不管怎样，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:<b>Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?</b>COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast that<b>conditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.</b></p><p><blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：<b>这是一个“新”周期吗？</b>新冠肺炎让全球经济戛然而止，而积极的政策应对推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都太快了<b>情况永远不会像经济衰退期间那样“重置”。</b></blockquote></p><p> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!</p><p><blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退毗邻：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；和3)全球大流行。如果您正在寻找“正常”衰退，祝您好运！</blockquote></p><p> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三家公司在开始前约6个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂。这三者都遵循了美联储加息周期，核心CPI同比均高于2.4%。在这三个时期之前，消费者信心高、失业率低和股市广度下降。</blockquote></p><p> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,<b>we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.</b></p><p><blockquote>这些有太多的相似之处。他们会一直持续到康复。自2020年4月活动低点以来，“正常”的早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动计算，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它走路像新周期，说话像新周期，<b>我们认为投资者应该将其视为一个新的周期。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这一周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这一周期可能会异常火爆。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The first is stimulus.</b>The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>首先是刺激。</b>全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。在我们的业务中，“前所未有”是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他衰退后时期中是合格且独特的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>The second is savings.</b>Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>二是储蓄。</b>美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分布不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对COVID-19不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的恢复，这种不确定性可能会影响支出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Third is the labor market.</b>Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>三是劳动力市场。</b>我们的经济学家指出，最近的大部分失业发生在与COVID-19相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的回归，我们可能会看到异常快速的劳动力正常化，这似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Finally, there is the future path of policy.</b>Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>最后是政策的未来路径。</b>全球央行正在发出坚定承诺支持增长并将通胀恢复到更正常的水平的信号。各国政府没有表现出最终提高税收或削减支出的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策收紧的限制。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.<b>But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.</b>Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.</p><p><blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。<b>但是就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。</b>与过去40年的长期扩张不同，这次扩张可能看起来更类似于20世纪40年代末或50年代。</blockquote></p><p> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.</p><p><blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年的扩张。咆哮的二十年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的经济衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年出现了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续了三年。</blockquote></p><p> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.<b>If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.</b></p><p><blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同部分发挥作用。<b>如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑轮换出早期周期的赢家。</b></blockquote></p><p> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleague<b>Michael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps</b>(see<i>US Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021</i>), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.</p><p><blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷都是我们喜欢的策略。但随着周期的延长，所有这些都表现不佳。我的同事<b>迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股的评级</b>（见<i>美股策略：周度预热：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益&gt;倍数，2021年3月15日</i>），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.<b>Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag</b>. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.</p><p><blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和区域领导力也可能发生显着变化。<b>从历史上看，新兴市场股市在经济衰退后表现最好，但随后会滞后</b>随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is the<b>US breakeven expectations curve</b>. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...</p><p><blockquote>天气会不会太热？我密切关注的一个指标是<b>美国盈亏平衡预期曲线</b>目前，它反映了未来2-5年通胀的适度超调...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.</p><p><blockquote>...此后通胀水平较低。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹着。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.</p><p><blockquote>只要该曲线保持倒挂，市场就表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行几乎没有必要大幅改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是一个由最近的经验驱动的期望的例子。不管怎样，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169559774","content_text":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.\nAll cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!\nSurprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.\nThose are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.\nYet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.\n\nThe first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.\nThe second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.\nThird is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.\nFinally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.\n\nFor all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.\nShort cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.\nBut this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.\nWhere should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings > Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.\nSector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.\nWill conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...\n\n... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.\nAs long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324081144,"gmtCreate":1615943825488,"gmtModify":1703495311166,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","listText":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","text":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324081144","repostId":"1192607248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192607248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615942564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192607248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股价周二大幅下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192607248","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year","content":"<p>The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商目前的股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低了约25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）周二遭受重创。这家电动汽车制造商股价下跌5.2%，收盘下跌4.4%。</blockquote></p><p> That decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌可能主要是由于许多成长型股票的价格在交易结束时普遍回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>标普500</b>市场指数在交易日中期回吐涨幅，最终下跌0.2%。然而，许多成长型股票下跌了几个百分点或更多。</blockquote></p><p> The bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.</p><p><blockquote>最后几个小时交易中市场的看跌趋势反映了华尔街在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三举行新闻发布会之前的谨慎态度。一些投资者可能担心他的言论会如何影响市场。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今年是一只波动特别大的股票，1月份价格升至略高于900美元，然后在3月初跌至550美元以下。过去几周，股价已回升不少，但周二的下跌使股价约为677美元。鉴于特斯拉是最纯粹形式的成长型股票，如此剧烈的波动不应被认为是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉管理层表示，预计2021年汽车销量将比2020年飙升50%以上，2020年交付量约为50万辆。分析师也抱有很高的期望。平均而言，他们预测该公司2021财年的收入将增长53%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于特斯拉的股票已经被寄予了很高的期望。虽然这家汽车制造商总是有可能超越最乐观的分析师的观点，但投资者应该为更大的波动做好准备，这对于定价中包含大量预期增长的股票来说是很正常的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股价周二大幅下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股价周二大幅下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商目前的股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低了约25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）周二遭受重创。这家电动汽车制造商股价下跌5.2%，收盘下跌4.4%。</blockquote></p><p> That decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌可能主要是由于许多成长型股票的价格在交易结束时普遍回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>标普500</b>市场指数在交易日中期回吐涨幅，最终下跌0.2%。然而，许多成长型股票下跌了几个百分点或更多。</blockquote></p><p> The bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.</p><p><blockquote>最后几个小时交易中市场的看跌趋势反映了华尔街在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三举行新闻发布会之前的谨慎态度。一些投资者可能担心他的言论会如何影响市场。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今年是一只波动特别大的股票，1月份价格升至略高于900美元，然后在3月初跌至550美元以下。过去几周，股价已回升不少，但周二的下跌使股价约为677美元。鉴于特斯拉是最纯粹形式的成长型股票，如此剧烈的波动不应被认为是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉管理层表示，预计2021年汽车销量将比2020年飙升50%以上，2020年交付量约为50万辆。分析师也抱有很高的期望。平均而言，他们预测该公司2021财年的收入将增长53%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于特斯拉的股票已经被寄予了很高的期望。虽然这家汽车制造商总是有可能超越最乐观的分析师的观点，但投资者应该为更大的波动做好准备，这对于定价中包含大量预期增长的股票来说是很正常的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/why-tesla-stock-fell-sharply-on-tuesday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/why-tesla-stock-fell-sharply-on-tuesday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192607248","content_text":"The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.\nWhat happened\nShares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.\nThat decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.\nSo what\nThe S&P 500 market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.\nThe bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.\nTesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.\nNow what\nMeanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.\nThe problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117421131,"gmtCreate":1623158362323,"gmtModify":1631893175262,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收皮啦，吊你","listText":"收皮啦，吊你","text":"收皮啦，吊你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117421131","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106512382,"gmtCreate":1620133493846,"gmtModify":1631887366321,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> is fucking rubbishgo to hell","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> is fucking rubbishgo to hell","text":"$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ is fucking rubbishgo to hell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106512382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349962259,"gmtCreate":1617522402171,"gmtModify":1634520652516,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","listText":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","text":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349962259","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359150111,"gmtCreate":1616375787633,"gmtModify":1634526191310,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","listText":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","text":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359150111","repostId":"1160065206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160065206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160065206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160065206","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHow","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&amp;T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，拖累这些行业也随之走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&amp;T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，拖累这些行业也随之走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131259195,"gmtCreate":1621864370817,"gmtModify":1631887176791,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","listText":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","text":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131259195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503578376363058","authorId":"3503578376363058","name":"91积累财富663","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab3741925d58e40b3316bcd8595a2ac","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3503578376363058","idStr":"3503578376363058"},"content":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","text":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","html":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376264684,"gmtCreate":1619133129548,"gmtModify":1634288391059,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","listText":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","text":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376264684","repostId":"1194377792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376265323,"gmtCreate":1619133028862,"gmtModify":1634288392366,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All semicon industry die","listText":"All semicon industry die","text":"All semicon industry die","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376265323","repostId":"2129331349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355827812,"gmtCreate":1617062406836,"gmtModify":1634522899276,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy on first day","listText":"Buy on first day","text":"Buy on first day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355827812","repostId":"1135921653","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351191503,"gmtCreate":1616572315802,"gmtModify":1634525142152,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla is not stupid. For those who against Tesla to buy bitcoin are idiot.","listText":"Tesla is not stupid. For those who against Tesla to buy bitcoin are idiot.","text":"Tesla is not stupid. For those who against Tesla to buy bitcoin are idiot.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351191503","repostId":"1177666109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177666109","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616567642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177666109?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 14:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment<blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177666109","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment.Tesla's official website: We cur","content":"<p>Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla's official website: We currently only support customers in the United States to pay with Bitcoin, and we will consider opening up new markets in the future.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉官网：我们目前只支持美国的客户用比特币支付，未来会考虑开拓新的市场。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin has risen by US$700 in the short-term, and is now quoted at US$54,429 per coin.</p><p><blockquote>比特币短线上涨700美元，现报54429美元/枚。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment<blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment<blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-24 14:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉美国官网支持使用比特币进行支付。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla's official website: We currently only support customers in the United States to pay with Bitcoin, and we will consider opening up new markets in the future.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉官网：我们目前只支持美国的客户用比特币支付，未来会考虑开拓新的市场。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin has risen by US$700 in the short-term, and is now quoted at US$54,429 per coin.</p><p><blockquote>比特币短线上涨700美元，现报54429美元/枚。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c7cb7483c270761f6679ffa0ee057","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177666109","content_text":"Tesla's US official website supports the use of Bitcoin for payment.Tesla's official website: We currently only support customers in the United States to pay with Bitcoin, and we will consider opening up new markets in the future.Bitcoin has risen by US$700 in the short-term, and is now quoted at US$54,429 per coin.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327800259,"gmtCreate":1616074573071,"gmtModify":1634527376232,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ducking 10 year yield, tiu lai Lou mou chao hei","listText":"Ducking 10 year yield, tiu lai Lou mou chao hei","text":"Ducking 10 year yield, tiu lai Lou mou chao hei","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327800259","repostId":"1145217400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327936967,"gmtCreate":1616047611059,"gmtModify":1703496852650,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I don't know what to said, just need Tiger coin","listText":"I don't know what to said, just need Tiger coin","text":"I don't know what to said, just need Tiger coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327936967","repostId":"2120133033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321216324,"gmtCreate":1615438169968,"gmtModify":1703489060214,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20210319 15.0 PUT(TIGR)$</a> open Tiger account to trade Tiger options","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20210319 15.0 PUT(TIGR)$</a> open Tiger account to trade Tiger options","text":"$TIGR 20210319 15.0 PUT(TIGR)$ open Tiger account to trade Tiger options","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17b6fc6df58890159fbc96f48ee37d8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321216324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154084763,"gmtCreate":1625460740452,"gmtModify":1631893175234,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","text":"$Tencent(00700)$ what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154084763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108086778,"gmtCreate":1619961661994,"gmtModify":1634208864250,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All are rubbish","listText":"All are rubbish","text":"All are rubbish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108086778","repostId":"1115363330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115363330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619791216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115363330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 of Cathie Wood's Biggest Losers of 2021 That Should Still Be Huge Long-Term Winners<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)2021年最大输家中的3个仍然应该是巨大的长期赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115363330","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"David Gardner, a co-founder of The Motley Fool, often says that \"winners win.\" And he's exactly righ","content":"<p>David Gardner, a co-founder of The Motley Fool, often says that \"winners win.\" And he's exactly right. However, he would be the first to tell you that winners don't win<i>all</i>of the time. They have their ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>The Motley Fool的联合创始人大卫·加德纳(David Gardner)经常说“赢家通吃”。他完全正确。然而，他会第一个告诉你赢家不会赢<i>全部</i>的时间。他们有起有落。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point: Cathie Wood certainly qualifies as a winner. Her ARK Invest exchange-traded funds have ranked among the best-performing ETFs in recent years. Not every stock in those funds has delivered a great return so far in 2021, though.</p><p><blockquote>例证：凯西·伍德当然有资格成为赢家。她的ARK Invest交易所交易基金近年来一直是表现最好的ETF之一。不过，到目前为止，这些基金中的每只股票在2021年都取得了丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Several of the ARK Invest CEO's favorites are actually down year to date. Don't count all of those recent underperformers out just yet, though. These three are among Wood's biggest losers of 2021, and all should still be huge winners over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，ARK Invest首席执行官最喜欢的几个股票实际上都有所下降。不过，现在还不要把最近表现不佳的所有人都排除在外。这三家公司是伍德2021年最大的输家之一，从长远来看，它们仍然应该是巨大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Teladoc Health</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc健康</blockquote></p><p> <b>Teladoc Health</b>(NYSE:TDOC)shares have fallen more than 15% year to date, and that's weighing on several of Wood's ETFs. Teladoc is the top holding in the<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>, the second-largest position in the<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>, and the fifth-largest holding in the<b>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>Teladoc健康</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TDOC）股价今年迄今已下跌超过15%，这给伍德的几只ETF带来了压力。Teladoc是该公司的第一大持股<b>方舟基因组革命ETF</b>，第二大位置<b>方舟创新ETF</b>，也是第五大持股<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>.</blockquote></p><p> It appears that many investors are focusing only on the negatives for Teladoc. For example,in its Q1 update, the company reported a huge net loss and said that U.S. paid membership in the quarter slipped to 51.5 million from 51.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎只关注Teladoc的负面影响。例如，该公司在第一季度更新中报告了巨额净亏损，并表示该季度美国付费会员从2020年第四季度的5180万下滑至5150万。</blockquote></p><p> However, that's only part of the story. Teladoc's total visits and utilization rate continue to climb. And much of that big loss was related to the company's acquisitions of Livongo and InTouch Health, deals that are already helping drive its revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这只是故事的一部分。Teladoc的总访问量和利用率持续攀升。巨额亏损很大程度上与该公司收购Livongo和InTouch Health有关，这些交易已经帮助推动了其收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> My view is that Teladoc's downturn will be temporary. The long-term opportunities for the company in virtual care remain exceptionally strong.</p><p><blockquote>我的观点是Teladoc的低迷将是暂时的。该公司在虚拟护理领域的长期机会仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Unity Software</p><p><blockquote>Unity软件</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unity Software</b>(NYSE:U)has been an especially poor performer for Wood this year -- the stock has plunged more than 30%. The gaming platform leader ranks No. 10 among the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF's holdings and No. 12 for the ARK Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote><b>Unity软件</b>Wood(NYSE：U)今年的表现尤其糟糕，该股已暴跌超过30%。这家游戏平台领导者在ARK下一代互联网ETF持股中排名第10位，在ARK Innovation ETF中排名第12位。</blockquote></p><p> The main knock against Unity is its slowing growth rate. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase. However, that was weaker than its full-year revenue growth rate of 43%. Even more concerning, Unity provided a full-year revenue guidance range for 2021 anticipating growth of 24% at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Unity面临的主要挑战是其增长率放缓。2020年第四季度，该公司报告收入同比增长39%。然而，这低于其43%的全年收入增长率。更令人担忧的是，Unity提供了2021年全年收入指导范围，预计中值增长24%。</blockquote></p><p> I don't think investors should be worried, though. For one thing, the pandemic boosted Unity's growth in 2020. It's not surprising that growth would slow somewhat after such an exceptional year. The company also anticipates taking a one-time hit to revenue in 2021 as advertisers adjust to<b>Apple</b>'s new IDFA user identification method.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我认为投资者不应该担心。一方面，疫情推动了Unity在2020年的增长。在经历了如此特殊的一年之后，增长会有所放缓也就不足为奇了。该公司还预计，随着广告商适应<b>苹果</b>的新IDFA用户识别方法。</blockquote></p><p> Unity still expects to generate annual revenue growth of at least 30% over the long term. Wood clearly remains a fan of the stock -- her ARK Innovation ETFscooped up more sharesrecently. I think that her optimism in this case is spot on.</p><p><blockquote>Unity仍预计长期年收入将增长至少30%。伍德显然仍然是该股的粉丝——她的ARK Innovation ETF最近买入了更多股票。我认为她在这种情况下的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Vertex Pharmaceuticals</p><p><blockquote>顶点制药</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b>(NASDAQ:VRTX)hasn't been quite as big of a problem for Wood in 2021 as Teladoc and Unity. However, thebiotech stockhas fallen more than 10% year to date. It's the seventh-largest position for the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF.</p><p><blockquote><b>顶点制药</b>（纳斯达克：VRTX）在2021年对Wood来说并不像Teladoc和Unity那样是一个大问题。然而，该生物科技股今年迄今已下跌超过10%。这是ARK Genomic Revolution ETF的第七大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts weren't happy with the Q4 results Vertex reported in February. Although the company narrowly beat revenue expectations, its adjusted earnings came in below analysts' estimates. Vertex also provided guidance for 2021 that anticipated slowing growth.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师对Vertex 2月份报告的第四季度业绩并不满意。尽管该公司的收入略高于预期，但调整后的盈利低于分析师的预期。Vertex还提供了2021年增长放缓的指引。</blockquote></p><p> However, Vertex still has a big market opportunity ahead for its newest cystic fibrosis treatment, Trikafta/Kaftrio, in Europe. The triple-drug combination quickly became a blockbuster in the U.S. after winning approval. However, its growth curve in Europe will take more time because Vertex has to negotiate reimbursement deals with the healthcare regulators in each individual country.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Vertex的最新囊性纤维化治疗药物Trikafta/Kaftrio在欧洲仍有很大的市场机会。这种三联药物组合在获得批准后迅速在美国成为重磅炸弹。然而，其在欧洲的增长曲线将需要更多时间，因为Vertex必须与每个国家的医疗监管机构谈判报销协议。</blockquote></p><p> I fully expect Vertex will achieve tremendous success outside of the cystic fibrosis market over the next few years. The big biotech seems really confident about the prospects for its candidate gene-editing therapy CTX001 in treating a pair of rare blood disorders: sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. It also has other promising pipeline candidates as well as a hefty cash stockpile. Vertex, like Teladoc and Unity, looks like a long-term winner despite its losing ways of late.</p><p><blockquote>我完全预计Vertex将在未来几年在囊性纤维化市场之外取得巨大成功。这家大型生物技术公司似乎对其候选基因编辑疗法CTX001在治疗两种罕见血液疾病（镰状细胞病和β地中海贫血）方面的前景非常有信心。它还有其他有前途的候选管道以及大量现金储备。与Teladoc和Unity一样，Vertex看起来像是一个长期赢家，尽管它最近失败了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 of Cathie Wood's Biggest Losers of 2021 That Should Still Be Huge Long-Term Winners<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)2021年最大输家中的3个仍然应该是巨大的长期赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 of Cathie Wood's Biggest Losers of 2021 That Should Still Be Huge Long-Term Winners<blockquote>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)2021年最大输家中的3个仍然应该是巨大的长期赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 22:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>David Gardner, a co-founder of The Motley Fool, often says that \"winners win.\" And he's exactly right. However, he would be the first to tell you that winners don't win<i>all</i>of the time. They have their ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>The Motley Fool的联合创始人大卫·加德纳(David Gardner)经常说“赢家通吃”。他完全正确。然而，他会第一个告诉你赢家不会赢<i>全部</i>的时间。他们有起有落。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point: Cathie Wood certainly qualifies as a winner. Her ARK Invest exchange-traded funds have ranked among the best-performing ETFs in recent years. Not every stock in those funds has delivered a great return so far in 2021, though.</p><p><blockquote>例证：凯西·伍德当然有资格成为赢家。她的ARK Invest交易所交易基金近年来一直是表现最好的ETF之一。不过，到目前为止，这些基金中的每只股票在2021年都取得了丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Several of the ARK Invest CEO's favorites are actually down year to date. Don't count all of those recent underperformers out just yet, though. These three are among Wood's biggest losers of 2021, and all should still be huge winners over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，ARK Invest首席执行官最喜欢的几个股票实际上都有所下降。不过，现在还不要把最近表现不佳的所有人都排除在外。这三家公司是伍德2021年最大的输家之一，从长远来看，它们仍然应该是巨大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Teladoc Health</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc健康</blockquote></p><p> <b>Teladoc Health</b>(NYSE:TDOC)shares have fallen more than 15% year to date, and that's weighing on several of Wood's ETFs. Teladoc is the top holding in the<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>, the second-largest position in the<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>, and the fifth-largest holding in the<b>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>Teladoc健康</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TDOC）股价今年迄今已下跌超过15%，这给伍德的几只ETF带来了压力。Teladoc是该公司的第一大持股<b>方舟基因组革命ETF</b>，第二大位置<b>方舟创新ETF</b>，也是第五大持股<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>.</blockquote></p><p> It appears that many investors are focusing only on the negatives for Teladoc. For example,in its Q1 update, the company reported a huge net loss and said that U.S. paid membership in the quarter slipped to 51.5 million from 51.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者似乎只关注Teladoc的负面影响。例如，该公司在第一季度更新中报告了巨额净亏损，并表示该季度美国付费会员从2020年第四季度的5180万下滑至5150万。</blockquote></p><p> However, that's only part of the story. Teladoc's total visits and utilization rate continue to climb. And much of that big loss was related to the company's acquisitions of Livongo and InTouch Health, deals that are already helping drive its revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这只是故事的一部分。Teladoc的总访问量和利用率持续攀升。巨额亏损很大程度上与该公司收购Livongo和InTouch Health有关，这些交易已经帮助推动了其收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> My view is that Teladoc's downturn will be temporary. The long-term opportunities for the company in virtual care remain exceptionally strong.</p><p><blockquote>我的观点是Teladoc的低迷将是暂时的。该公司在虚拟护理领域的长期机会仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Unity Software</p><p><blockquote>Unity软件</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unity Software</b>(NYSE:U)has been an especially poor performer for Wood this year -- the stock has plunged more than 30%. The gaming platform leader ranks No. 10 among the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF's holdings and No. 12 for the ARK Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote><b>Unity软件</b>Wood(NYSE：U)今年的表现尤其糟糕，该股已暴跌超过30%。这家游戏平台领导者在ARK下一代互联网ETF持股中排名第10位，在ARK Innovation ETF中排名第12位。</blockquote></p><p> The main knock against Unity is its slowing growth rate. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase. However, that was weaker than its full-year revenue growth rate of 43%. Even more concerning, Unity provided a full-year revenue guidance range for 2021 anticipating growth of 24% at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Unity面临的主要挑战是其增长率放缓。2020年第四季度，该公司报告收入同比增长39%。然而，这低于其43%的全年收入增长率。更令人担忧的是，Unity提供了2021年全年收入指导范围，预计中值增长24%。</blockquote></p><p> I don't think investors should be worried, though. For one thing, the pandemic boosted Unity's growth in 2020. It's not surprising that growth would slow somewhat after such an exceptional year. The company also anticipates taking a one-time hit to revenue in 2021 as advertisers adjust to<b>Apple</b>'s new IDFA user identification method.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我认为投资者不应该担心。一方面，疫情推动了Unity在2020年的增长。在经历了如此特殊的一年之后，增长会有所放缓也就不足为奇了。该公司还预计，随着广告商适应<b>苹果</b>的新IDFA用户识别方法。</blockquote></p><p> Unity still expects to generate annual revenue growth of at least 30% over the long term. Wood clearly remains a fan of the stock -- her ARK Innovation ETFscooped up more sharesrecently. I think that her optimism in this case is spot on.</p><p><blockquote>Unity仍预计长期年收入将增长至少30%。伍德显然仍然是该股的粉丝——她的ARK Innovation ETF最近买入了更多股票。我认为她在这种情况下的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Vertex Pharmaceuticals</p><p><blockquote>顶点制药</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b>(NASDAQ:VRTX)hasn't been quite as big of a problem for Wood in 2021 as Teladoc and Unity. However, thebiotech stockhas fallen more than 10% year to date. It's the seventh-largest position for the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF.</p><p><blockquote><b>顶点制药</b>（纳斯达克：VRTX）在2021年对Wood来说并不像Teladoc和Unity那样是一个大问题。然而，该生物科技股今年迄今已下跌超过10%。这是ARK Genomic Revolution ETF的第七大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts weren't happy with the Q4 results Vertex reported in February. Although the company narrowly beat revenue expectations, its adjusted earnings came in below analysts' estimates. Vertex also provided guidance for 2021 that anticipated slowing growth.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师对Vertex 2月份报告的第四季度业绩并不满意。尽管该公司的收入略高于预期，但调整后的盈利低于分析师的预期。Vertex还提供了2021年增长放缓的指引。</blockquote></p><p> However, Vertex still has a big market opportunity ahead for its newest cystic fibrosis treatment, Trikafta/Kaftrio, in Europe. The triple-drug combination quickly became a blockbuster in the U.S. after winning approval. However, its growth curve in Europe will take more time because Vertex has to negotiate reimbursement deals with the healthcare regulators in each individual country.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Vertex的最新囊性纤维化治疗药物Trikafta/Kaftrio在欧洲仍有很大的市场机会。这种三联药物组合在获得批准后迅速在美国成为重磅炸弹。然而，其在欧洲的增长曲线将需要更多时间，因为Vertex必须与每个国家的医疗监管机构谈判报销协议。</blockquote></p><p> I fully expect Vertex will achieve tremendous success outside of the cystic fibrosis market over the next few years. The big biotech seems really confident about the prospects for its candidate gene-editing therapy CTX001 in treating a pair of rare blood disorders: sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. It also has other promising pipeline candidates as well as a hefty cash stockpile. Vertex, like Teladoc and Unity, looks like a long-term winner despite its losing ways of late.</p><p><blockquote>我完全预计Vertex将在未来几年在囊性纤维化市场之外取得巨大成功。这家大型生物技术公司似乎对其候选基因编辑疗法CTX001在治疗两种罕见血液疾病（镰状细胞病和β地中海贫血）方面的前景非常有信心。它还有其他有前途的候选管道以及大量现金储备。与Teladoc和Unity一样，Vertex看起来像是一个长期赢家，尽管它最近失败了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/3-of-cathie-woods-biggest-losers-of-2021-that-shou/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/3-of-cathie-woods-biggest-losers-of-2021-that-shou/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115363330","content_text":"David Gardner, a co-founder of The Motley Fool, often says that \"winners win.\" And he's exactly right. However, he would be the first to tell you that winners don't winallof the time. They have their ups and downs.\nCase in point: Cathie Wood certainly qualifies as a winner. Her ARK Invest exchange-traded funds have ranked among the best-performing ETFs in recent years. Not every stock in those funds has delivered a great return so far in 2021, though.\nSeveral of the ARK Invest CEO's favorites are actually down year to date. Don't count all of those recent underperformers out just yet, though. These three are among Wood's biggest losers of 2021, and all should still be huge winners over the long run.\nTeladoc Health\nTeladoc Health(NYSE:TDOC)shares have fallen more than 15% year to date, and that's weighing on several of Wood's ETFs. Teladoc is the top holding in theARK Genomic Revolution ETF, the second-largest position in theARK Innovation ETF, and the fifth-largest holding in theARK Next Generation Internet ETF.\nIt appears that many investors are focusing only on the negatives for Teladoc. For example,in its Q1 update, the company reported a huge net loss and said that U.S. paid membership in the quarter slipped to 51.5 million from 51.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020.\nHowever, that's only part of the story. Teladoc's total visits and utilization rate continue to climb. And much of that big loss was related to the company's acquisitions of Livongo and InTouch Health, deals that are already helping drive its revenue growth.\nMy view is that Teladoc's downturn will be temporary. The long-term opportunities for the company in virtual care remain exceptionally strong.\nUnity Software\nUnity Software(NYSE:U)has been an especially poor performer for Wood this year -- the stock has plunged more than 30%. The gaming platform leader ranks No. 10 among the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF's holdings and No. 12 for the ARK Innovation ETF.\nThe main knock against Unity is its slowing growth rate. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase. However, that was weaker than its full-year revenue growth rate of 43%. Even more concerning, Unity provided a full-year revenue guidance range for 2021 anticipating growth of 24% at the midpoint.\nI don't think investors should be worried, though. For one thing, the pandemic boosted Unity's growth in 2020. It's not surprising that growth would slow somewhat after such an exceptional year. The company also anticipates taking a one-time hit to revenue in 2021 as advertisers adjust toApple's new IDFA user identification method.\nUnity still expects to generate annual revenue growth of at least 30% over the long term. Wood clearly remains a fan of the stock -- her ARK Innovation ETFscooped up more sharesrecently. I think that her optimism in this case is spot on.\nVertex Pharmaceuticals\nVertex Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:VRTX)hasn't been quite as big of a problem for Wood in 2021 as Teladoc and Unity. However, thebiotech stockhas fallen more than 10% year to date. It's the seventh-largest position for the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF.\nWall Street analysts weren't happy with the Q4 results Vertex reported in February. Although the company narrowly beat revenue expectations, its adjusted earnings came in below analysts' estimates. Vertex also provided guidance for 2021 that anticipated slowing growth.\nHowever, Vertex still has a big market opportunity ahead for its newest cystic fibrosis treatment, Trikafta/Kaftrio, in Europe. The triple-drug combination quickly became a blockbuster in the U.S. after winning approval. However, its growth curve in Europe will take more time because Vertex has to negotiate reimbursement deals with the healthcare regulators in each individual country.\nI fully expect Vertex will achieve tremendous success outside of the cystic fibrosis market over the next few years. The big biotech seems really confident about the prospects for its candidate gene-editing therapy CTX001 in treating a pair of rare blood disorders: sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. It also has other promising pipeline candidates as well as a hefty cash stockpile. Vertex, like Teladoc and Unity, looks like a long-term winner despite its losing ways of late.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373347636,"gmtCreate":1618826109925,"gmtModify":1634290601473,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今晚Nasdaq大升，会破前新高","listText":"今晚Nasdaq大升，会破前新高","text":"今晚Nasdaq大升，会破前新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373347636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349962749,"gmtCreate":1617522492281,"gmtModify":1634520652275,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","idStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So, what is the answer?","listText":"So, what is the answer?","text":"So, what is the answer?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349962749","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}