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浅水蛟龙

浅水蛟龙

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2021-06-08

short sell Tesla to $450

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-11

猜明天阿里巴巴股票会爆升吗？

2021-03-22

Tiger coin

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn "Hotter And Shorter" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将燃烧“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑淘汰早期周期赢家</blockquote>

2021-03-17

People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.

Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>特斯拉股价为何周二大幅下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-08

收皮啦，吊你

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-04

$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ is fucking rubbishgo to hell

2021-04-04

Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?

2021-03-22

Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?

The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>

2021-05-24

中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。

2021-04-23

Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示摩根士丹利比特币基金两周内筹集 2940 万美元</blockquote>

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$Tencent(00700)$</a> what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","text":"$Tencent(00700)$ what the hell happened, your mother sucker....!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154084763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160264484,"gmtCreate":1623799981648,"gmtModify":1631893175239,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","listText":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","text":"Some stupid still pressing gold price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160264484","repostId":"1147269544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147269544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770166,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147269544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>迈克尔“大空头”伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫“两个数量级”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147269544","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he p","content":"<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，迈克尔·“大空头”·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为未来的蓝图</b>在一场冗长的推文风暴中，大量抄袭了帕尔森的开创性作品，警告说<b>:</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在通过其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通货膨胀。强劲的债务/GDP，M2增加，而零售销售，PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，更多的刺激措施和重新开放将提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，有其自身明确无误的特征。其中之一是巨大的财富，至少是那些受繁荣青睐的人……许多巨额财富一夜之间涌现……城市里有着漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股票市场都蒸蒸日上，马克对美元和其他货币的汇率居然一度上涨，马克暂时是全球最强势的货币”，通货膨胀前夕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫穷的口袋。更多的人停留在容易赚钱的外面，往里看却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记载表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，再加上他们对快节奏的厌倦，没有明显的目的，以及他们害怕眼睁睁地看着自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此引人注目地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何类型的生意都能赚钱。企业倒闭和破产变得很少。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，通过这些过程，非必要和无效的生意就会被淘汰出去。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“光是投机，虽然没有给德国的财富增加任何东西，但却成了它最大的活动之一。加入快速转换标记的狂热感染了几乎所有阶层……从电梯操作员到每个人都在玩弄市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到1923年11月，1922年夏天，世界上所有的印记都不足以买一份报纸或一张电车票。这是经济崩溃最引人注目的部分，但真正的货币财富损失大多发生在更早的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，该结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通胀周期不是持续了一年，而是持续了九年，相当于八年的酝酿，只有一年的#崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：上面是“写于1974年回复：1914-1923年”，然后做出不祥的推断，“<b>2010-2021：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时……管理团队变得有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资有风险的增长机会已经彻底击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，好像是从同一个剧本里读到的，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“在我看来，通货膨胀是暂时的......这并不符合我对世界的看法”。</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上最新的推特警告……</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。很简单。这是有史以来最大的投机泡沫。大了两个数量级。”</b></i>#飞猪360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住!”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么做？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>迈克尔“大空头”伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫“两个数量级”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>迈克尔“大空头”伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫“两个数量级”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，迈克尔·“大空头”·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为未来的蓝图</b>在一场冗长的推文风暴中，大量抄袭了帕尔森的开创性作品，警告说<b>:</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在通过其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通货膨胀。强劲的债务/GDP，M2增加，而零售销售，PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，更多的刺激措施和重新开放将提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，有其自身明确无误的特征。其中之一是巨大的财富，至少是那些受繁荣青睐的人……许多巨额财富一夜之间涌现……城市里有着漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股票市场都蒸蒸日上，马克对美元和其他货币的汇率居然一度上涨，马克暂时是全球最强势的货币”，通货膨胀前夕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫穷的口袋。更多的人停留在容易赚钱的外面，往里看却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记载表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，再加上他们对快节奏的厌倦，没有明显的目的，以及他们害怕眼睁睁地看着自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此引人注目地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何类型的生意都能赚钱。企业倒闭和破产变得很少。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，通过这些过程，非必要和无效的生意就会被淘汰出去。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“光是投机，虽然没有给德国的财富增加任何东西，但却成了它最大的活动之一。加入快速转换标记的狂热感染了几乎所有阶层……从电梯操作员到每个人都在玩弄市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到1923年11月，1922年夏天，世界上所有的印记都不足以买一份报纸或一张电车票。这是经济崩溃最引人注目的部分，但真正的货币财富损失大多发生在更早的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，该结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通胀周期不是持续了一年，而是持续了九年，相当于八年的酝酿，只有一年的#崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：上面是“写于1974年回复：1914-1923年”，然后做出不祥的推断，“<b>2010-2021：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时……管理团队变得有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资有风险的增长机会已经彻底击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，好像是从同一个剧本里读到的，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“在我看来，通货膨胀是暂时的......这并不符合我对世界的看法”。</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上最新的推特警告……</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。很简单。这是有史以来最大的投机泡沫。大了两个数量级。”</b></i>#飞猪360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住!”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么做？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147269544","content_text":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically itshyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes nextin a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that:\n\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"\n#ParadigmShift\n\"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"\n\"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.\n\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"\n\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"\n\"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"\n\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"\n\"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #robinhooddown\n\"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"\n\"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"\nHis punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"2010-2021: Gestation\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"\nAnd, as if reading from the same playbook,Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"and if Jay Powell\n\n“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"\n\nAll of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...\n\n\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.#FlyingPigs360\"\n\nIn other words:\"Brace!\"\nSo what are you going to do about it?\nTudor Jones had some simple advice: \"buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188022217,"gmtCreate":1623417296239,"gmtModify":1631893175247,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","listText":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","text":"If he die during this test drive, space stock price fell like hell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188022217","repostId":"1115909292","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115909292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623413127,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115909292?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这有多危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115909292","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or s","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游世界，也可以乘坐巨型游艇船队永远航行。他买得起整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过 65,000 辆布加迪 Chiron（底价 290 万美元），尽管只生产了 500 辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐 11 分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多大风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管贝佐斯前往太空的风险不一定是天文数字，但他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新型谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐它完成一系列成功的试飞。（此外，进入太空是贝佐斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将要做的事情——进行新谢泼德的首次载人飞行，新谢泼德是一种完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在将持票人带入短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们在多大程度上将自己的生命掌握在自己手中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班是什么样子的</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一个宇航员绕地球飞行，在太空中漂浮至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>这不是贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客们会做的事情。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上上下下，而且比大多数人上班所需的时间更短——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源公司的新谢泼德飞行将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将飞越地球超过62英里，这被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要积累足够的动力来达到至少 17,000 英里/小时的速度，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上为航天器提供足够的能量来继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回地球。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的动力和速度要低得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，燃烧航天器外部的温度更低，对航天器的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗的速度约为音速的三倍——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，让乘客有几分钟的失重时间。它的工作原理有点像你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重状态的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者，在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带回地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新的谢泼德太空舱部署了一大群降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时不到 20 英里。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>单独飞行的火箭重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的垂直着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX对其猎鹰9号火箭所做的事情，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源公司的新型谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试具有更低的风险。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重新进入地球大气层的激烈过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。通过重返轨道，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以感受到4.5 Gs的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，而越来越厚的大气层则围绕着太空舱。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球的大气层通常被认为无法在 50,000 英尺的高度上存活很长时间，而贝佐斯将飞行到 350,000 英尺的高度。但是他乘坐的太空舱将是加压的，所以他不需要特殊的防护服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他将可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新的谢泼德太空舱和乘客从火箭上抛出。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞无法展开，也能帮助太空舱温和着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德发生故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行比轨道任务风险小，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时该飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降过程中稳定的羽翼系统。飞机上额外的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（此后，蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河公司对其 SpaceShipTwo 航天飞机的改进版进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到类似的悲惨事故，不过——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——空间很难。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这有多危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这有多危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游世界，也可以乘坐巨型游艇船队永远航行。他买得起整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过 65,000 辆布加迪 Chiron（底价 290 万美元），尽管只生产了 500 辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐 11 分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多大风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管贝佐斯前往太空的风险不一定是天文数字，但他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新型谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐它完成一系列成功的试飞。（此外，进入太空是贝佐斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将要做的事情——进行新谢泼德的首次载人飞行，新谢泼德是一种完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在将持票人带入短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们在多大程度上将自己的生命掌握在自己手中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班是什么样子的</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一个宇航员绕地球飞行，在太空中漂浮至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>这不是贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客们会做的事情。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上上下下，而且比大多数人上班所需的时间更短——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源公司的新谢泼德飞行将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将飞越地球超过62英里，这被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要积累足够的动力来达到至少 17,000 英里/小时的速度，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上为航天器提供足够的能量来继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回地球。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的动力和速度要低得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，燃烧航天器外部的温度更低，对航天器的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗的速度约为音速的三倍——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，让乘客有几分钟的失重时间。它的工作原理有点像你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重状态的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者，在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带回地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新的谢泼德太空舱部署了一大群降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时不到 20 英里。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>单独飞行的火箭重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的垂直着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX对其猎鹰9号火箭所做的事情，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源公司的新型谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试具有更低的风险。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重新进入地球大气层的激烈过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。通过重返轨道，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以感受到4.5 Gs的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，而越来越厚的大气层则围绕着太空舱。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球的大气层通常被认为无法在 50,000 英尺的高度上存活很长时间，而贝佐斯将飞行到 350,000 英尺的高度。但是他乘坐的太空舱将是加压的，所以他不需要特殊的防护服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他将可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新的谢泼德太空舱和乘客从火箭上抛出。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞无法展开，也能帮助太空舱温和着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德发生故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行比轨道任务风险小，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时该飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降过程中稳定的羽翼系统。飞机上额外的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（此后，蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河公司对其 SpaceShipTwo 航天飞机的改进版进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到类似的悲惨事故，不过——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——空间很难。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115909292","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.\nJust how risky is his decision?\nThe answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)\nStill, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.\nHere's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.\nWhat the flight looks like\nWhen most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.\nThat is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .\nThey'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.\nSuborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.\nOrbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.\nSuborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.\nNew Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.\n\nThe New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.\nThe rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.\nHow big are the risks?\nBlue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.\nBecause suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.\nHigh speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.\nBut even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.\nEven though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.\nOne of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.\n(Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)\nBlue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.\nBut, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183449351,"gmtCreate":1623343980373,"gmtModify":1631893175249,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ugly design","listText":"Ugly design","text":"Ugly design","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183449351","repostId":"183564245","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183564245,"gmtCreate":1623336488287,"gmtModify":1623336488287,"author":{"id":"3494378197296027","authorId":"3494378197296027","name":"王春龙Bale","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e561afcd6e41b0d7953fc87b7c54a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494378197296027","authorIdStr":"3494378197296027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">$上汽集团(600104)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">$上汽集团(600104)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"传闻上海开放五菱宏光电动车上绿牌，网友：7000多人排队了，沪D牌发完发沪AA牌：1.今天（6月10日），有网友爆料，上海已经开放对五菱宏光MINI EV上绿牌的政策了，这引发了很多车友们的关注。有网友称：“上海现在开始恢复送牌”，“沪D牌发完了，发沪AA牌了”，“7000多在排队挂牌中”。2.此前，有媒体报道称，上海将对10万元以下或者车长低于4.6米的新能源车型进行限制，新购买的A0级电动汽车，无法申领上海市针对新能源汽车免费提供的专用牌照。有车主还表示：“4S店说最近不审批新能源（牌照），要等5月初的新政。”3.作为今年最畅销的一款车型，五菱宏光MINI EV以小巧的身材和超低的价格，连续多个月问鼎国内新能源汽车销量榜的第一位。今年5月，五菱宏光以29706辆的销量位居国内第一位，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏等均排在其后面。$上汽集团(600104)$$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae3691ac8db27aadc4723e025e857e1","width":"1000","height":"665"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf2b7495e39370f65c066fa3e06a0c3","width":"600","height":"913"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca124c5596d590c65b2aaa30d12b5644","width":"800","height":"535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183564245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183457325,"gmtCreate":1623343828467,"gmtModify":1631893175252,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","listText":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","text":"The answer is cannot. 收皮啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183457325","repostId":"1107871315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117428124,"gmtCreate":1623158417568,"gmtModify":1631893175255,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"short sell Tesla to $450","listText":"short sell Tesla to $450","text":"short sell Tesla to 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10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104593890,"gmtCreate":1620396584310,"gmtModify":1634205527192,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"地吸引力","listText":"地吸引力","text":"地吸引力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104593890","repostId":"104215152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":104215152,"gmtCreate":1620393479876,"gmtModify":1784235095374,"author":{"id":"3489725211341675","authorId":"3489725211341675","name":"英为财情","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/90beb74040cb78811d8df6ccd44be346","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489725211341675","authorIdStr":"3489725211341675"},"themes":[],"title":"美股盘前： 非农爆冷！纳指期货大涨150点 道指期货跳水转跌","htmlText":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","listText":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","text":"周五盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，受累于银行股，道指期货回吐涨幅；科技股直线拉升，纳指期货一度大涨约200点，不过随后有所回落。此前美国非农意外爆冷，远远低于市场预期，印证了美联储对维持宽松政策的立场。美国劳动统计局公布数据显示，美国4月非农就业人口变动季调后仅仅增加26.6万，远不及预期的增加100万，相比前值增加91.6万大幅回落。同时，失业率从6.0%意外升至6.1%，而市场原本预期将将至5.8%。数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升100点，涨幅扩大超1%；道指期货直线跳水，由涨转跌。黄金价格飙升20美元，升破1840美元。美元指数期货重挫0.5%，美债收益率大跌超2%。银行股集体下跌，高盛集团 (NYSE:GS)跌1.37%，摩根大通 (NYSE:JPM)跌1.84%，摩根士丹利 (NYSE:MS)跌1.98%，花旗集团 (NYSE:C)跌1.86%，富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)跌1.54%，美国银行 (NYSE:BAC)跌1.98%。科技股劲升，苹果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)涨1.34%，奈飞(NASDAQ:NFLX)涨0.98%，微软公司(NASDAQ:MSFT)涨1.22%，亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)涨1.09%，谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOG)涨1.20%，Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)涨1.46%，Twitter（NYSE:TWTR)涨1.73%。 特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨0.93%。与此同时，据报道，美国白宫已经准备就此次就业报告召开高级别会议，美国总统拜登及其经济团队、美国财长耶伦将参加稍晚的简报会。对于意外爆冷的数据，美联储卡什卡利指出，就业报告验证了美联储结果导向性的政策。前一交易日，美股收涨，道指涨0.93%，标普500涨0.82%，纳指涨0.37%。截至北京时间21:05（美国东部时间上午09:05），英为财情Investi","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a94b69cc0a72bb2dbfbb5c6c530c5c5","width":"800","height":"533"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104215152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":117428124,"gmtCreate":1623158417568,"gmtModify":1631893175255,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"short sell Tesla to $450","listText":"short sell Tesla to $450","text":"short sell Tesla to 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除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]","text":"不会 除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]","html":"不会 除非深度低开 期待打脸 [得意]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359126377,"gmtCreate":1616375454099,"gmtModify":1634526194770,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger coin","listText":"Tiger coin","text":"Tiger coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359126377","repostId":"1169559774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169559774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374328,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169559774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将燃烧“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑淘汰早期周期赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169559774","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought ","content":"<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:<b>Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?</b>COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast that<b>conditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.</b></p><p><blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：<b>这是一个 “新 ”周期吗？</b>新冠肺炎导致全球经济突然停止，而积极的政策反应推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都如此之快，以至于<b>经济衰退期间，情况永远不会像通常那样 “重置”。</b></blockquote></p><p> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!</p><p><blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退都发生在：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；3）全球疫情。如果你正在寻找一场 “正常 ”的经济衰退，祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三个公司在开始前约 6 个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂的情况。这三者都遵循美联储加息周期，核心 CPI 同比高于 2.4%。在此之前，消费者信心高涨，失业率低，股市广度下降。</blockquote></p><p> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,<b>we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.</b></p><p><blockquote>这些有很多相似之处。他们一直延续到康复。自 2020 年 4 月活动低谷以来，“正常”早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动衡量，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它像一个新的周期一样行走，像一个新的周期一样说话，<b>我们认为投资者应该将其视为新的周期。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这个周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这种循环可能会异常激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The first is stimulus.</b>The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>首先是刺激。</b>全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。“史无前例”在我们的业务中是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他经济衰退后时期中是合格的，并且是独一无二的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>The second is savings.</b>Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>二是储蓄。</b>美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分配不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对 COVID-19 不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的回归，这种不确定性可能会进入支出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Third is the labor market.</b>Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>三是劳动力市场。</b>我们的经济学家指出，最近大部分失业发生在与 COVID-19 相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的复苏，我们可以看到异常快速的劳动力正常化似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Finally, there is the future path of policy.</b>Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>最后是政策的未来路径。</b>全球央行正在发出支持增长和将通胀恢复到更正常水平的坚定承诺。各国政府几乎没有表现出最终提高税收或削减开支的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策紧缩的限制。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.<b>But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.</b>Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.</p><p><blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。<b>但就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。</b>与过去 40 年的漫长扩张不同，这次可能看起来更类似于 20 世纪 40 年代末或 50 年代。</blockquote></p><p> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.</p><p><blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年扩张。咆哮的20年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年经历了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续三年。</blockquote></p><p> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.<b>If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.</b></p><p><blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同阶段发挥作用。<b>如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑淘汰早期周期的赢家。</b></blockquote></p><p> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleague<b>Michael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps</b>(see<i>US Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021</i>), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.</p><p><blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷在经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，这些策略都是我们所看好的。但随着周期的延长，所有人的表现都不太好。我的同事<b>迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股评级</b>（见<i>美股策略：每周热身：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益 &gt; 倍数，2021 年 3 月 15 日</i>），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.<b>Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag</b>. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.</p><p><blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和地区领导层也可能发生显著变化。<b>新兴市场股市历来在经济衰退后表现最佳，但随后滞后</b>随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is the<b>US breakeven expectations curve</b>. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...</p><p><blockquote>天气会变得太热吗？我密切关注的一个指标是<b>美国盈亏平衡预期曲线</b>目前，这反映出未来2-5年通货膨胀将略有超调……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.</p><p><blockquote>...随后通货膨胀率下降。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹起来。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.</p><p><blockquote>只要这条曲线保持倒置，市场就会发出信号，表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行就没有必要急剧改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是最近经历驱动期望的一个例子。无论如何，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将燃烧“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑淘汰早期周期赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将燃烧“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑淘汰早期周期赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:<b>Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?</b>COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast that<b>conditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.</b></p><p><blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：<b>这是一个 “新 ”周期吗？</b>新冠肺炎导致全球经济突然停止，而积极的政策反应推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都如此之快，以至于<b>经济衰退期间，情况永远不会像通常那样 “重置”。</b></blockquote></p><p> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!</p><p><blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退都发生在：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；3）全球疫情。如果你正在寻找一场 “正常 ”的经济衰退，祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三个公司在开始前约 6 个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂的情况。这三者都遵循美联储加息周期，核心 CPI 同比高于 2.4%。在此之前，消费者信心高涨，失业率低，股市广度下降。</blockquote></p><p> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,<b>we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.</b></p><p><blockquote>这些有很多相似之处。他们一直延续到康复。自 2020 年 4 月活动低谷以来，“正常”早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动衡量，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它像一个新的周期一样行走，像一个新的周期一样说话，<b>我们认为投资者应该将其视为新的周期。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这个周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这种循环可能会异常激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The first is stimulus.</b>The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>首先是刺激。</b>全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。“史无前例”在我们的业务中是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他经济衰退后时期中是合格的，并且是独一无二的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>The second is savings.</b>Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>二是储蓄。</b>美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分配不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对 COVID-19 不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的回归，这种不确定性可能会进入支出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Third is the labor market.</b>Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>三是劳动力市场。</b>我们的经济学家指出，最近大部分失业发生在与 COVID-19 相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的复苏，我们可以看到异常快速的劳动力正常化似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Finally, there is the future path of policy.</b>Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>最后是政策的未来路径。</b>全球央行正在发出支持增长和将通胀恢复到更正常水平的坚定承诺。各国政府几乎没有表现出最终提高税收或削减开支的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策紧缩的限制。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.<b>But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.</b>Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.</p><p><blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。<b>但就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。</b>与过去 40 年的漫长扩张不同，这次可能看起来更类似于 20 世纪 40 年代末或 50 年代。</blockquote></p><p> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.</p><p><blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年扩张。咆哮的20年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年经历了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续三年。</blockquote></p><p> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.<b>If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.</b></p><p><blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同阶段发挥作用。<b>如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑淘汰早期周期的赢家。</b></blockquote></p><p> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleague<b>Michael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps</b>(see<i>US Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021</i>), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.</p><p><blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷在经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，这些策略都是我们所看好的。但随着周期的延长，所有人的表现都不太好。我的同事<b>迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股评级</b>（见<i>美股策略：每周热身：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益 &gt; 倍数，2021 年 3 月 15 日</i>），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.<b>Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag</b>. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.</p><p><blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和地区领导层也可能发生显著变化。<b>新兴市场股市历来在经济衰退后表现最佳，但随后滞后</b>随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is the<b>US breakeven expectations curve</b>. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...</p><p><blockquote>天气会变得太热吗？我密切关注的一个指标是<b>美国盈亏平衡预期曲线</b>目前，这反映出未来2-5年通货膨胀将略有超调……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.</p><p><blockquote>...随后通货膨胀率下降。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹起来。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.</p><p><blockquote>只要这条曲线保持倒置，市场就会发出信号，表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行就没有必要急剧改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是最近经历驱动期望的一个例子。无论如何，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169559774","content_text":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.\nAll cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!\nSurprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.\nThose are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.\nYet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.\n\nThe first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.\nThe second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.\nThird is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.\nFinally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.\n\nFor all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.\nShort cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.\nBut this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.\nWhere should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings > Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.\nSector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.\nWill conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...\n\n... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.\nAs long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324081144,"gmtCreate":1615943825488,"gmtModify":1703495311166,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","listText":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","text":"People don't know the different between Tesla and other car maker.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324081144","repostId":"1192607248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192607248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615942564,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1192607248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>特斯拉股价为何周二大幅下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192607248","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year","content":"<p>The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商目前的股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低约 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）周二遭受打击。这家电动汽车制造商下跌高达 5.2%，交易日收盘下跌 4.4%。</blockquote></p><p> That decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.</p><p><blockquote>这一下跌可能主要是由于许多成长型股票的价格在收盘时广泛回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>标普500</b>市场指数从交易日中期的涨幅回落，收盘下跌0.2%。然而，许多成长型股票下跌了几个百分点或更多。</blockquote></p><p> The bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个小时的市场看跌趋势反映了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三召开新闻发布会之前华尔街的谨慎态度。一些投资者可能担心他的言论会如何影响市场。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今年一直是一只波动特别大的股票，1 月份股价升至略高于 900 美元，然后在 3 月初跌至 550 美元以下。在过去几周里，价格已经回升了不少，但周二的下跌使股价保持在 677 美元左右。鉴于特斯拉是一只最纯粹的成长型股票，这种剧烈的波动不应被视为不寻常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉管理层表示，预计 2021 年汽车销量将比 2020 年飙升 50% 以上，2020 年交付了约 50 万辆。分析师也抱有很高的期望。平均而言，他们预测该公司 2021 财年收入将增长 53%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题是特斯拉的股票已经被寄予厚望。虽然该汽车制造商总是有可能超过最乐观的分析师的观点，但投资者应该为更大的波动做好准备，这对于预期增长很大的股票来说是很正常的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>特斯拉股价为何周二大幅下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday<blockquote>特斯拉股价为何周二大幅下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商目前的股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低约 25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）周二遭受打击。这家电动汽车制造商下跌高达 5.2%，交易日收盘下跌 4.4%。</blockquote></p><p> That decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.</p><p><blockquote>这一下跌可能主要是由于许多成长型股票的价格在收盘时广泛回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>标普500</b>市场指数从交易日中期的涨幅回落，收盘下跌0.2%。然而，许多成长型股票下跌了几个百分点或更多。</blockquote></p><p> The bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个小时的市场看跌趋势反映了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三召开新闻发布会之前华尔街的谨慎态度。一些投资者可能担心他的言论会如何影响市场。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今年一直是一只波动特别大的股票，1 月份股价升至略高于 900 美元，然后在 3 月初跌至 550 美元以下。在过去几周里，价格已经回升了不少，但周二的下跌使股价保持在 677 美元左右。鉴于特斯拉是一只最纯粹的成长型股票，这种剧烈的波动不应被视为不寻常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉管理层表示，预计 2021 年汽车销量将比 2020 年飙升 50% 以上，2020 年交付了约 50 万辆。分析师也抱有很高的期望。平均而言，他们预测该公司 2021 财年收入将增长 53%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题是特斯拉的股票已经被寄予厚望。虽然该汽车制造商总是有可能超过最乐观的分析师的观点，但投资者应该为更大的波动做好准备，这对于预期增长很大的股票来说是很正常的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/why-tesla-stock-fell-sharply-on-tuesday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/why-tesla-stock-fell-sharply-on-tuesday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192607248","content_text":"The electric vehicle maker is now trading about 25% below the all-time high it hit earlier this year.\nWhat happened\nShares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) took a hit on Tuesday. The electric car maker slid by as much as 5.2%, and ended the trading day down by 4.4%.\nThat decline was likely primarily due to a broad pullback in the prices of manygrowth stockstoward the end of the session.\nSo what\nThe S&P 500 market index retreated from a gain during the middle of the trading day to end it down by 0.2%. Lots of growth stocks, however, fell by several percentage points or more.\nThe bearish trend in the market during the last few hours of trading reflected caution on Wall Street ahead of a news conference Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold Wednesday. Some investors may be concerned about how his remarks could impact the market.\nTesla has been an especially volatile stock this year, rising to a price just above $900 in January and then falling to below $550 in early March. The price has recovered quite a bit in the past couple of weeks, but Tuesday's decline left the shares at about $677. Given that Tesla is a growth stock in its purest form, such wild volatility shouldn't be considered unusual.\nNow what\nMeanwhile, Tesla management says it expects vehicle sales to soar by more than 50% in 2021 compared to 2020, when it delivered about 500,000. Analysts have big expectations, too. On average, they're forecasting the company's fiscal 2021 revenue will increase by 53%.\nThe problem, of course, is that high expectations are already baked into Tesla's stock. While it's always possible that the automaker will exceed even the most bullish analysts' views, investors should prepare for more volatility, which is quite normal for stocks that have a lot of anticipated growth priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117421131,"gmtCreate":1623158362323,"gmtModify":1631893175262,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"收皮啦，吊你","listText":"收皮啦，吊你","text":"收皮啦，吊你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117421131","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106512382,"gmtCreate":1620133493846,"gmtModify":1631887366321,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> is fucking rubbishgo to hell","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> is fucking rubbishgo to hell","text":"$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ is fucking rubbishgo to hell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106512382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349962259,"gmtCreate":1617522402171,"gmtModify":1634520652516,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","listText":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","text":"Is Nasdaq recovery now or rebound?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349962259","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359150111,"gmtCreate":1616375787633,"gmtModify":1634526191310,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","listText":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","text":"Why after leave comment, will no Tiger coin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359150111","repostId":"1160065206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160065206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374606,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160065206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160065206","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHow","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131259195,"gmtCreate":1621864370817,"gmtModify":1631887176791,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","listText":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","text":"中国央行允许人民币升值，美国CPI会更糟，美股会死惨。如果中国十四亿人每人卖$100美股，美市会崩溃。中央已开绿灯，散户一起给它崩。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131259195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503578376363058","authorId":"3503578376363058","name":"91积累财富663","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab3741925d58e40b3316bcd8595a2ac","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3503578376363058","authorIdStr":"3503578376363058"},"content":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","text":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","html":"中国有那么多人玩美股吗？大A有多少人做？ [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376264684,"gmtCreate":1619133129548,"gmtModify":1634288391059,"author":{"id":"3566383397179750","authorId":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorIdStr":"3566383397179750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","listText":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","text":"Continue buy bitcoin with 100x leverage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376264684","repostId":"1194377792","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194377792","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619106065,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194377792?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-22 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示摩根士丹利比特币基金两周内筹集 2940 万美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194377792","media":"CoinDesk","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor cou","content":"<p><div> Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)One of Morgan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摩根士丹利的新比特币产品已经是同类基金中规模最大的基金之一。摩根士丹利首席执行官 James Gorman（Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images）摩根……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1572937250936","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示摩根士丹利比特币基金两周内筹集 2940 万美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Bitcoin Fund Draws $29.4M in 2 Weeks, Filings Show<blockquote>文件显示摩根士丹利比特币基金两周内筹集 2940 万美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CoinDesk</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-22 23:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)One of Morgan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摩根士丹利的新比特币产品已经是同类基金中规模最大的基金之一。摩根士丹利首席执行官 James Gorman（Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images）摩根……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show\">CoinDesk</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-bitcoin-fund-draws-29-4m-in-2-weeks-filings-show","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194377792","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin product is already one of the largest funds of its kind by investor count.Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman(Christinne Muschi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)One of Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin-only private funds raised $29.4 million from 322 investors in its first 14 days, according to regulatory documents published Thursday.Managed by FS Investments with NYDIG custodying the bitcoin, the fund is one of two new bitcoin investment vehicles offered by newly-bullish Morgan Stanley. When news of the institutional stalwart’s bitcoin offering broke last month, it kicked Wall Street’s crypto musings into high gear.The early returns for “FS NYDIG Select Bitcoin Fund LP” indicate investors are indeed hungry for accessing bitcoin products through their institutional managers. Passive funds like Morgan Stanley’s fare give clients unwilling to custody their own keys an easy way into the asset class.In just 14 days, Morgan Stanley’s FS/NYDIG fund has become one of the most popular private bitcoin vehicles, beating out far-older industry offerings from Pantera and Galaxy by investor count, according to fund data compiled by CoinDesk. (Galaxy is also accepting bitcoin investments from Morgan Stanley in a pre-existing fund.)Seeking exposure to bitcoin via fund is not without its drawbacks. Morgan Stanley limits clients’ bitcoin bets to 2.5% percent of their total net worth. They must have at least $2 million in net worth. And they must pay an upfront placement fee of 3% for bitcoin investments under $250,000, according to offering documents obtained by CoinDesk.The average investment in Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin fund was around $91,000. Morgan Stanley will receive placement fees, according to the regulatory documents.Morgan Stanley declined to comment. NYDIG and FS Investments did not immediately respond to CoinDesk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}