AngelAw的个人主页 - 老虎社区

AngelAw

AngelAw

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

18关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-10-27

Buy can earn profit

Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Tax will increase in US[流泪]

These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Buy dun wait to regret

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

Can buy

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

[财迷]

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Just take the vaccines

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

Just wait

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575032741986642","uuid":"3575032741986642","gmtCreate":1611940009733,"gmtModify":1617114532585,"name":"AngelAw","pinyin":"angelaw","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":18,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.17%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.46%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":855833018,"gmtCreate":1635347781733,"gmtModify":1635347781833,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy can earn profit","listText":"Buy can earn profit","text":"Buy can earn profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855833018","repostId":"1186134889","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186134889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635145020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186134889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-25 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186134889","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continue","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea并没有像预期的那样在大流行后时期遭受游戏行业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电商GMV持续爆发，尽管亏损也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布了一项大规模融资，这凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是Sea的关键限制因素，该股的交易价格约为预期收入的14倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea并没有像预期的那样在大流行后时期遭受游戏行业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电商GMV持续爆发，尽管亏损也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布了一项大规模融资，这凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是Sea的关键限制因素，该股的交易价格约为预期收入的14倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340829097,"gmtCreate":1617374279719,"gmtModify":1634521189836,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340829097","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340103427,"gmtCreate":1617348998069,"gmtModify":1634521284628,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340103427","repostId":"1117428745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117428745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617326984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117428745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117428745","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semicond","content":"<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>关于拜登总统大规模支出计划的消息凸显了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到很大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始回升。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%3月31日上涨2.4%，其所有30个成分股均出现上涨。SOXX追踪PHLX半导体指数SOX，+3.69%。在30只股票中，有15只较2月16日SOXX创下历史新高时下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，半导体行业协会(SIA)董事会，其中包括Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD(+3.30%)、Nvidia Corp.NVDA(+3.47%)、高通Inc.QCOM(+3.92%)的首席执行官或高级管理人员、英特尔公司INTC、+0.86%、德州仪器公司TXN、+1.62%等公司致信拜登。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已经从1990年的37%“稳步下降”到12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是其他国家政府对半导体行业进行大量投资的结果，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。SIA首席执行官John Neuffer在3月31日的一份声明中表示，拜登的支出计划“将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新——美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，该支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供500亿美元。此外，还将拨出1740亿美元帮助美国“赢得”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然会帮助特斯拉公司（TSLA，-0.93%），但它也将支持车辆中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅回落</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了SOX 30指数中自2月16日SOXX创下历史新高以来跌幅最大的15只半导体行业股票：华尔街最喜欢的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师一致价格目标所暗示的12个月上涨潜力最大的15只SOXX股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX的远期市盈率为22.7，SPDR标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%的远期市盈率为21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>关于拜登总统大规模支出计划的消息凸显了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到很大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始回升。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%3月31日上涨2.4%，其所有30个成分股均出现上涨。SOXX追踪PHLX半导体指数SOX，+3.69%。在30只股票中，有15只较2月16日SOXX创下历史新高时下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，半导体行业协会(SIA)董事会，其中包括Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD(+3.30%)、Nvidia Corp.NVDA(+3.47%)、高通Inc.QCOM(+3.92%)的首席执行官或高级管理人员、英特尔公司INTC、+0.86%、德州仪器公司TXN、+1.62%等公司致信拜登。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已经从1990年的37%“稳步下降”到12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是其他国家政府对半导体行业进行大量投资的结果，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。SIA首席执行官John Neuffer在3月31日的一份声明中表示，拜登的支出计划“将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新——美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，该支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供500亿美元。此外，还将拨出1740亿美元帮助美国“赢得”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然会帮助特斯拉公司（TSLA，-0.93%），但它也将支持车辆中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅回落</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了SOX 30指数中自2月16日SOXX创下历史新高以来跌幅最大的15只半导体行业股票：华尔街最喜欢的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师一致价格目标所暗示的12个月上涨潜力最大的15只SOXX股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX的远期市盈率为22.7，SPDR标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%的远期市盈率为21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司","QCOM":"高通","TSM":"台积电","TXN":"德州仪器","SOX":"费城半导体指数"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117428745","content_text":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.Biden’s spending planIn February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.Chip stocks pare gainsThis table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocksHere are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"XLNX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354084790,"gmtCreate":1617112500110,"gmtModify":1634522591063,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy dun wait to regret","listText":"Buy dun wait to regret","text":"Buy dun wait to regret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354084790","repostId":"1193934463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354014911,"gmtCreate":1617112197133,"gmtModify":1634522594787,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can buy","listText":"Can buy","text":"Can buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354014911","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354018962,"gmtCreate":1617112067856,"gmtModify":1634522596620,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354018962","repostId":"1102162544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102162544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617106353,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102162544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102162544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing a","content":"<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。</li><li>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至0.95%，创13个月新高，随后票据遭到大量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国。由于10年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及14个月高点，股指期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔500指数从前一交易日的创纪录收盘价下跌。尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。3月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪月度亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指E-minis下跌26点，跌幅0.08%，标普500 E-minis下跌13.5点，跌幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌91.25点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通讯、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>-在涉及对冲基金Archegos Capital的股票被清算后，这两只媒体股今天上午走高。Discovery在连续6天下跌后盘前上涨1.6%，市值蒸发近47%，而Viacom在连续5天下跌后上涨1.1%，市值蒸发55%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>-野村证券和瑞士信贷在盘前交易中再次下跌，周一有消息称Archegos Capital出售股票导致预期亏损。野村证券下跌1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>–该连锁超市宣布与Alphabet旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>-PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万在线商家结账时使用持有的加密货币。在完成购买之前，客户可以选择将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>-该无线运营商将于4月底结束其“TVision”直播电视服务，转而为其客户提供订阅谷歌YouTube电视服务的折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>-这家香料和调味品制造商报告调整后季度利润为每股72美分，超出市场普遍预期13美分，收入也超出预期。该公司还上调了全年预期，因为疫情继续导致更多消费者在家做饭。味好美股价在盘前上涨2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>泰格纳</b>–该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股7美分提高到9.5美分，将于7月1日支付给截至6月4日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>–Truist Financial将该股评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，该公司认为该股存在多种增加收入的机会以及当前估值，该公司股价盘前上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>-花旗将这家评论网站运营商的评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，花旗认为Yelp将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp盘前上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>BioNTech</b>-这家德国生物技术公司将其Covid-19疫苗的生产目标提高到2021年底的25亿剂后，其股价盘前上涨4.9%。此前，BioNTech的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞曾预测产量在23亿至24亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>FactSet</b>-这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度每股收益为2.72美元，比市场普遍预期低2美分，而营收与华尔街预测一致。FactSet还预测全年调整后每股收益为10.75美元至11.15美元，市场普遍预期为11.17美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>-这家医疗产品制造商获得了FDA的紧急使用授权，用于一种新的快速抗原测试，可以检测流感和Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>DraftKing</b>-体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司VSiN，收购金额未披露DraftKings股价盘前大涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据cnEVpost报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头Metro AG合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚公司（Nokia Oyj）的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回，该诉讼指控该电信公司欺诈股东。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35日元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌2%，至每桶60.30美元。布伦特原油下跌1.9%，至每桶63.77美元。金价下跌1.3%，至每盎司1,689.76美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。</li><li>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至0.95%，创13个月新高，随后票据遭到大量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国。由于10年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及14个月高点，股指期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔500指数从前一交易日的创纪录收盘价下跌。尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。3月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪月度亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指E-minis下跌26点，跌幅0.08%，标普500 E-minis下跌13.5点，跌幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌91.25点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通讯、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>-在涉及对冲基金Archegos Capital的股票被清算后，这两只媒体股今天上午走高。Discovery在连续6天下跌后盘前上涨1.6%，市值蒸发近47%，而Viacom在连续5天下跌后上涨1.1%，市值蒸发55%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>-野村证券和瑞士信贷在盘前交易中再次下跌，周一有消息称Archegos Capital出售股票导致预期亏损。野村证券下跌1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>–该连锁超市宣布与Alphabet旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>-PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万在线商家结账时使用持有的加密货币。在完成购买之前，客户可以选择将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>-该无线运营商将于4月底结束其“TVision”直播电视服务，转而为其客户提供订阅谷歌YouTube电视服务的折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>-这家香料和调味品制造商报告调整后季度利润为每股72美分，超出市场普遍预期13美分，收入也超出预期。该公司还上调了全年预期，因为疫情继续导致更多消费者在家做饭。味好美股价在盘前上涨2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>泰格纳</b>–该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股7美分提高到9.5美分，将于7月1日支付给截至6月4日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>–Truist Financial将该股评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，该公司认为该股存在多种增加收入的机会以及当前估值，该公司股价盘前上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>-花旗将这家评论网站运营商的评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，花旗认为Yelp将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp盘前上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>BioNTech</b>-这家德国生物技术公司将其Covid-19疫苗的生产目标提高到2021年底的25亿剂后，其股价盘前上涨4.9%。此前，BioNTech的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞曾预测产量在23亿至24亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>FactSet</b>-这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度每股收益为2.72美元，比市场普遍预期低2美分，而营收与华尔街预测一致。FactSet还预测全年调整后每股收益为10.75美元至11.15美元，市场普遍预期为11.17美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>-这家医疗产品制造商获得了FDA的紧急使用授权，用于一种新的快速抗原测试，可以检测流感和Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>DraftKing</b>-体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司VSiN，收购金额未披露DraftKings股价盘前大涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据cnEVpost报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头Metro AG合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚公司（Nokia Oyj）的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回，该诉讼指控该电信公司欺诈股东。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35日元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌2%，至每桶60.30美元。布伦特原油下跌1.9%，至每桶63.77美元。金价下跌1.3%，至每盎司1,689.76美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102162544","content_text":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.(March 30) U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&P 500 fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku & more1) Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital. Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.2) Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse – Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales. Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.3) Albertsons – The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.4) PayPal Holdings – PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.5) T-Mobile US – The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.6) McCormick & Co. – The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well. The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.  McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.7) Tegna – The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.8) Roku – The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.9) Yel – The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses. Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.10) BioNTech – The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021. Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.11) FactSet – The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.12) Becton Dickinson – The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.13) DraftKings – The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount. DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.14) Nio Inc - NIO has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.15) Nokia Oyj - A lawsuit against  Nokia Oyj alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355759762,"gmtCreate":1617108445156,"gmtModify":1634522626897,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just take the vaccines","listText":"Just take the vaccines","text":"Just take the vaccines","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355759762","repostId":"1165495068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355727299,"gmtCreate":1617108246211,"gmtModify":1634522628500,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just wait","listText":"Just wait","text":"Just wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355727299","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355727299,"gmtCreate":1617108246211,"gmtModify":1634522628500,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just wait","listText":"Just wait","text":"Just wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355727299","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354084790,"gmtCreate":1617112500110,"gmtModify":1634522591063,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy dun wait to regret","listText":"Buy dun wait to regret","text":"Buy dun wait to regret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354084790","repostId":"1193934463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340829097,"gmtCreate":1617374279719,"gmtModify":1634521189836,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340829097","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354018962,"gmtCreate":1617112067856,"gmtModify":1634522596620,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354018962","repostId":"1102162544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102162544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617106353,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102162544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102162544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing a","content":"<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。</li><li>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至0.95%，创13个月新高，随后票据遭到大量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国。由于10年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及14个月高点，股指期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔500指数从前一交易日的创纪录收盘价下跌。尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。3月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪月度亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指E-minis下跌26点，跌幅0.08%，标普500 E-minis下跌13.5点，跌幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌91.25点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通讯、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>-在涉及对冲基金Archegos Capital的股票被清算后，这两只媒体股今天上午走高。Discovery在连续6天下跌后盘前上涨1.6%，市值蒸发近47%，而Viacom在连续5天下跌后上涨1.1%，市值蒸发55%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>-野村证券和瑞士信贷在盘前交易中再次下跌，周一有消息称Archegos Capital出售股票导致预期亏损。野村证券下跌1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>–该连锁超市宣布与Alphabet旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>-PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万在线商家结账时使用持有的加密货币。在完成购买之前，客户可以选择将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>-该无线运营商将于4月底结束其“TVision”直播电视服务，转而为其客户提供订阅谷歌YouTube电视服务的折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>-这家香料和调味品制造商报告调整后季度利润为每股72美分，超出市场普遍预期13美分，收入也超出预期。该公司还上调了全年预期，因为疫情继续导致更多消费者在家做饭。味好美股价在盘前上涨2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>泰格纳</b>–该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股7美分提高到9.5美分，将于7月1日支付给截至6月4日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>–Truist Financial将该股评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，该公司认为该股存在多种增加收入的机会以及当前估值，该公司股价盘前上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>-花旗将这家评论网站运营商的评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，花旗认为Yelp将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp盘前上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>BioNTech</b>-这家德国生物技术公司将其Covid-19疫苗的生产目标提高到2021年底的25亿剂后，其股价盘前上涨4.9%。此前，BioNTech的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞曾预测产量在23亿至24亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>FactSet</b>-这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度每股收益为2.72美元，比市场普遍预期低2美分，而营收与华尔街预测一致。FactSet还预测全年调整后每股收益为10.75美元至11.15美元，市场普遍预期为11.17美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>-这家医疗产品制造商获得了FDA的紧急使用授权，用于一种新的快速抗原测试，可以检测流感和Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>DraftKing</b>-体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司VSiN，收购金额未披露DraftKings股价盘前大涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据cnEVpost报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头Metro AG合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚公司（Nokia Oyj）的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回，该诉讼指控该电信公司欺诈股东。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35日元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌2%，至每桶60.30美元。布伦特原油下跌1.9%，至每桶63.77美元。金价下跌1.3%，至每盎司1,689.76美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。</li><li>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至0.95%，创13个月新高，随后票据遭到大量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国。由于10年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及14个月高点，股指期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔500指数从前一交易日的创纪录收盘价下跌。尽管Archegos Capital Management利润率看涨期权混乱的影响导致银行股疲软，但道琼斯工业平均指数顶住了周一的跌势，收盘再创历史新高。3月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪月度亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指E-minis下跌26点，跌幅0.08%，标普500 E-minis下跌13.5点，跌幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌91.25点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.7%，亚马逊、苹果公司、Netflix公司和微软公司盘前下跌0.6%至0.8%，美国10年期国债收益率触及14个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通讯、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>-在涉及对冲基金Archegos Capital的股票被清算后，这两只媒体股今天上午走高。Discovery在连续6天下跌后盘前上涨1.6%，市值蒸发近47%，而Viacom在连续5天下跌后上涨1.1%，市值蒸发55%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>-野村证券和瑞士信贷在盘前交易中再次下跌，周一有消息称Archegos Capital出售股票导致预期亏损。野村证券下跌1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>–该连锁超市宣布与Alphabet旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>-PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万在线商家结账时使用持有的加密货币。在完成购买之前，客户可以选择将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>-该无线运营商将于4月底结束其“TVision”直播电视服务，转而为其客户提供订阅谷歌YouTube电视服务的折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>-这家香料和调味品制造商报告调整后季度利润为每股72美分，超出市场普遍预期13美分，收入也超出预期。该公司还上调了全年预期，因为疫情继续导致更多消费者在家做饭。味好美股价在盘前上涨2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>泰格纳</b>–该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股7美分提高到9.5美分，将于7月1日支付给截至6月4日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>–Truist Financial将该股评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，该公司认为该股存在多种增加收入的机会以及当前估值，该公司股价盘前上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>-花旗将这家评论网站运营商的评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，花旗认为Yelp将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp盘前上涨1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>BioNTech</b>-这家德国生物技术公司将其Covid-19疫苗的生产目标提高到2021年底的25亿剂后，其股价盘前上涨4.9%。此前，BioNTech的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞曾预测产量在23亿至24亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>FactSet</b>-这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度每股收益为2.72美元，比市场普遍预期低2美分，而营收与华尔街预测一致。FactSet还预测全年调整后每股收益为10.75美元至11.15美元，市场普遍预期为11.17美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>-这家医疗产品制造商获得了FDA的紧急使用授权，用于一种新的快速抗原测试，可以检测流感和Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>DraftKing</b>-体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司VSiN，收购金额未披露DraftKings股价盘前大涨1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据cnEVpost报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头Metro AG合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚公司（Nokia Oyj）的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回，该诉讼指控该电信公司欺诈股东。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35日元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌2%，至每桶60.30美元。布伦特原油下跌1.9%，至每桶63.77美元。金价下跌1.3%，至每盎司1,689.76美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102162544","content_text":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.(March 30) U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&P 500 fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku & more1) Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital. Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.2) Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse – Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales. Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.3) Albertsons – The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.4) PayPal Holdings – PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.5) T-Mobile US – The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.6) McCormick & Co. – The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well. The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.  McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.7) Tegna – The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.8) Roku – The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.9) Yel – The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses. Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.10) BioNTech – The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021. Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.11) FactSet – The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.12) Becton Dickinson – The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.13) DraftKings – The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount. DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.14) Nio Inc - NIO has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.15) Nokia Oyj - A lawsuit against  Nokia Oyj alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355759762,"gmtCreate":1617108445156,"gmtModify":1634522626897,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just take the vaccines","listText":"Just take the vaccines","text":"Just take the vaccines","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355759762","repostId":"1165495068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855833018,"gmtCreate":1635347781733,"gmtModify":1635347781833,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy can earn profit","listText":"Buy can earn profit","text":"Buy can earn profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855833018","repostId":"1186134889","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186134889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635145020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186134889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-25 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186134889","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continue","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea并没有像预期的那样在大流行后时期遭受游戏行业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电商GMV持续爆发，尽管亏损也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布了一项大规模融资，这凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是Sea的关键限制因素，该股的交易价格约为预期收入的14倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea并没有像预期的那样在大流行后时期遭受游戏行业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电商GMV持续爆发，尽管亏损也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布了一项大规模融资，这凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是Sea的关键限制因素，该股的交易价格约为预期收入的14倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340103427,"gmtCreate":1617348998069,"gmtModify":1634521284628,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340103427","repostId":"1117428745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117428745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617326984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117428745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117428745","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semicond","content":"<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>关于拜登总统大规模支出计划的消息凸显了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到很大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始回升。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%3月31日上涨2.4%，其所有30个成分股均出现上涨。SOXX追踪PHLX半导体指数SOX，+3.69%。在30只股票中，有15只较2月16日SOXX创下历史新高时下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，半导体行业协会(SIA)董事会，其中包括Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD(+3.30%)、Nvidia Corp.NVDA(+3.47%)、高通Inc.QCOM(+3.92%)的首席执行官或高级管理人员、英特尔公司INTC、+0.86%、德州仪器公司TXN、+1.62%等公司致信拜登。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已经从1990年的37%“稳步下降”到12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是其他国家政府对半导体行业进行大量投资的结果，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。SIA首席执行官John Neuffer在3月31日的一份声明中表示，拜登的支出计划“将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新——美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，该支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供500亿美元。此外，还将拨出1740亿美元帮助美国“赢得”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然会帮助特斯拉公司（TSLA，-0.93%），但它也将支持车辆中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅回落</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了SOX 30指数中自2月16日SOXX创下历史新高以来跌幅最大的15只半导体行业股票：华尔街最喜欢的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师一致价格目标所暗示的12个月上涨潜力最大的15只SOXX股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX的远期市盈率为22.7，SPDR标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%的远期市盈率为21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股票可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>关于拜登总统大规模支出计划的消息凸显了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到很大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始回升。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%3月31日上涨2.4%，其所有30个成分股均出现上涨。SOXX追踪PHLX半导体指数SOX，+3.69%。在30只股票中，有15只较2月16日SOXX创下历史新高时下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，半导体行业协会(SIA)董事会，其中包括Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD(+3.30%)、Nvidia Corp.NVDA(+3.47%)、高通Inc.QCOM(+3.92%)的首席执行官或高级管理人员、英特尔公司INTC、+0.86%、德州仪器公司TXN、+1.62%等公司致信拜登。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已经从1990年的37%“稳步下降”到12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是其他国家政府对半导体行业进行大量投资的结果，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。SIA首席执行官John Neuffer在3月31日的一份声明中表示，拜登的支出计划“将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新——美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，该支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供500亿美元。此外，还将拨出1740亿美元帮助美国“赢得”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然会帮助特斯拉公司（TSLA，-0.93%），但它也将支持车辆中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅回落</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了SOX 30指数中自2月16日SOXX创下历史新高以来跌幅最大的15只半导体行业股票：华尔街最喜欢的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师一致价格目标所暗示的12个月上涨潜力最大的15只SOXX股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX的远期市盈率为22.7，SPDR标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%的远期市盈率为21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司","QCOM":"高通","TSM":"台积电","TXN":"德州仪器","SOX":"费城半导体指数"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117428745","content_text":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.Biden’s spending planIn February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.Chip stocks pare gainsThis table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocksHere are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"XLNX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354014911,"gmtCreate":1617112197133,"gmtModify":1634522594787,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can buy","listText":"Can buy","text":"Can buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354014911","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}