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AngelAw

AngelAw

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2021-03-30

Just wait

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2021-03-30

Buy dun wait to regret

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2021-04-02

Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-30

[财迷]

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Just take the vaccines

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2021-10-27

Buy can earn profit

Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Tax will increase in US[流泪]

These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Can buy

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can earn profit","listText":"Buy can earn profit","text":"Buy can earn profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855833018","repostId":"1186134889","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186134889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635145020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186134889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-25 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186134889","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continue","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着这家东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea 的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea 并没有像预期的那样在后大流行时期遭受博彩业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电子商务GMV继续爆炸式增长，尽管损失也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布大规模融资，凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是 Sea 的关键限制因素，股票交易价格约为远期收入的 14 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着这家东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea 的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea 并没有像预期的那样在后大流行时期遭受博彩业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电子商务GMV继续爆炸式增长，尽管损失也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布大规模融资，凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是 Sea 的关键限制因素，股票交易价格约为远期收入的 14 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340829097,"gmtCreate":1617374279719,"gmtModify":1634521189836,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340829097","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340103427,"gmtCreate":1617348998069,"gmtModify":1634521284628,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340103427","repostId":"1117428745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117428745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617326984,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117428745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117428745","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semicond","content":"<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>有关拜登总统大规模支出计划的新闻突出了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到巨大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始活跃起来。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68% 3 月 31 日上涨 2.4%，其所有 30 只成分股当日均出现上涨。SOXX 追踪 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX,+3.69%。在 30 只股票中，有 15 只较 2 月 16 日 SOXX 创下历史新高时下跌至少 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年 2 月，半导体行业协会 (SIA) 董事会致信拜登，董事会成员包括 Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%、Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%、Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%、Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%、Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62% 等公司。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已从 1990 年的 37% “稳步下降 ”至 12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是由于其他国家政府对半导体行业进行了大量投资，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。新航首席执行官约翰-诺伊弗（John Neuffer）在3月31日的一份声明中说，拜登的支出计划 “将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新--美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供 500 亿美元。此外，还将拨出 1740 亿美元，帮助美国 “赢得 ”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然将有助于特斯拉公司 TSLA,-0.93%, 但它也将支持汽车中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅收窄</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>该表显示了自 2 月 16 日（SOXX 创下历史新高的当天）收盘以来跌幅最大的 15 只 SOX 30 指数中的 15 只半导体行业股票：华尔街最受欢迎的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师共识价格目标所暗示的 15 只 12 个月上涨潜力最大的 SOXX 股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX 的远期市盈率为 22.7，SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08% 的远期市盈率为 21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>有关拜登总统大规模支出计划的新闻突出了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到巨大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始活跃起来。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68% 3 月 31 日上涨 2.4%，其所有 30 只成分股当日均出现上涨。SOXX 追踪 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX,+3.69%。在 30 只股票中，有 15 只较 2 月 16 日 SOXX 创下历史新高时下跌至少 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年 2 月，半导体行业协会 (SIA) 董事会致信拜登，董事会成员包括 Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%、Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%、Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%、Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%、Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62% 等公司。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已从 1990 年的 37% “稳步下降 ”至 12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是由于其他国家政府对半导体行业进行了大量投资，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。新航首席执行官约翰-诺伊弗（John Neuffer）在3月31日的一份声明中说，拜登的支出计划 “将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新--美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供 500 亿美元。此外，还将拨出 1740 亿美元，帮助美国 “赢得 ”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然将有助于特斯拉公司 TSLA,-0.93%, 但它也将支持汽车中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅收窄</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>该表显示了自 2 月 16 日（SOXX 创下历史新高的当天）收盘以来跌幅最大的 15 只 SOX 30 指数中的 15 只半导体行业股票：华尔街最受欢迎的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师共识价格目标所暗示的 15 只 12 个月上涨潜力最大的 SOXX 股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX 的远期市盈率为 22.7，SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08% 的远期市盈率为 21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔","SOX":"费城半导体指数","TXN":"德州仪器","SPY":"标普500ETF","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117428745","content_text":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.Biden’s spending planIn February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.Chip stocks pare gainsThis table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocksHere are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"XLNX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354084790,"gmtCreate":1617112500110,"gmtModify":1634522591063,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy dun wait to regret","listText":"Buy dun wait to regret","text":"Buy dun wait to regret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354084790","repostId":"1193934463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354014911,"gmtCreate":1617112197133,"gmtModify":1634522594787,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can buy","listText":"Can buy","text":"Can buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354014911","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354018962,"gmtCreate":1617112067856,"gmtModify":1634522596620,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354018962","repostId":"1102162544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102162544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617106353,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102162544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102162544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing a","content":"<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。</li><li>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至 0.95%，创 13 个月新高，随后票据出现批量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国由于 10 年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及 14 个月高点，股票期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔 500 指数较前一交易日创纪录的收盘价下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。三月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪每月亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 26 点，跌幅 0.08%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13.5 点，跌幅 0.34%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 91.25 点，跌幅 0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通信、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>- 在对冲基金 Archegos Capital 参与的股票被清盘后，这两只媒体股今早走高。Discovery 在连续 6 天下跌后，盘前上涨 1.6%，市值蒸发近 47%；Viacom 在连续 5 天下跌后，市值蒸发 55%，盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>- 野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在盘前交易中再次下滑，此前有消息称，由于 Archegos Capital 出售股票造成的预期损失，野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在周一的盘前交易中再次下滑。野村证券下跌 1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>– 这家连锁超市宣布与 Phabet 旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>– PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万家在线商家结账时使用加密货币。客户可以选择在完成购买之前将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>- 这家无线运营商将于 4 月底结束其 “TVision ”直播电视服务，转而为订阅谷歌 YouTube 电视服务的用户提供折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>- 这家香料和调味品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 72 美分，比市场普遍预期高出 13 美分，收入也超出预期。由于大流行病继续导致越来越多的消费者在家做饭，该公司还上调了全年预测。麦考密克股价在盘前交易中上涨了 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>画</b>– 该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股 7 美分提高到 9.5 美分，将于 7 月 1 日支付给截至 6 月 4 日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>- 这家视频流媒体设备制造商的股价盘前上涨了 1.6%，此前 Truist Financial 将其股票评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，理由是该公司认为有多个增加收入的机会以及当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>- 花旗将评论网站运营商的评级从 “中性 ”上调至 “买入 ”，花旗认为 Yelp 将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp 盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>生物技术</b>- 这家德国生物技术公司将 Covid-19 疫苗的生产目标提高到 2021 年底前的 25 亿剂，其股价盘前大涨 4.9%。此前，BioNTech 的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞公司曾预测产量在 23 亿至 24 亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>事实集</b>- 这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度收益为每股 2.72 美元，比市场普遍预期低 2 美分，而收入与华尔街的预测一致。FactSet 还预测全年调整后每股收益为 10.75 美元至 11.15 美元，而市场普遍预期为 11.17 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>– 这家医疗产品制造商获得了 FDA 的紧急使用授权，用于一种新型快速抗原测试，该测试可以检测流感和 Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>选秀王</b>- 体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司 VSiN，收购金额未公开。DraftKings 股价盘前上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头 Metro AG 合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚电信公司欺诈股东的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上升1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 2%，至每桶 60.30 美元。布伦特原油下跌 1.9%，至每桶 63.77 美元。金价下跌 1.3%，至每盎司 1,689.76 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。</li><li>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至 0.95%，创 13 个月新高，随后票据出现批量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国由于 10 年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及 14 个月高点，股票期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔 500 指数较前一交易日创纪录的收盘价下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。三月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪每月亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 26 点，跌幅 0.08%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13.5 点，跌幅 0.34%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 91.25 点，跌幅 0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通信、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>- 在对冲基金 Archegos Capital 参与的股票被清盘后，这两只媒体股今早走高。Discovery 在连续 6 天下跌后，盘前上涨 1.6%，市值蒸发近 47%；Viacom 在连续 5 天下跌后，市值蒸发 55%，盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>- 野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在盘前交易中再次下滑，此前有消息称，由于 Archegos Capital 出售股票造成的预期损失，野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在周一的盘前交易中再次下滑。野村证券下跌 1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>– 这家连锁超市宣布与 Phabet 旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>– PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万家在线商家结账时使用加密货币。客户可以选择在完成购买之前将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>- 这家无线运营商将于 4 月底结束其 “TVision ”直播电视服务，转而为订阅谷歌 YouTube 电视服务的用户提供折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>- 这家香料和调味品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 72 美分，比市场普遍预期高出 13 美分，收入也超出预期。由于大流行病继续导致越来越多的消费者在家做饭，该公司还上调了全年预测。麦考密克股价在盘前交易中上涨了 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>画</b>– 该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股 7 美分提高到 9.5 美分，将于 7 月 1 日支付给截至 6 月 4 日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>- 这家视频流媒体设备制造商的股价盘前上涨了 1.6%，此前 Truist Financial 将其股票评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，理由是该公司认为有多个增加收入的机会以及当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>- 花旗将评论网站运营商的评级从 “中性 ”上调至 “买入 ”，花旗认为 Yelp 将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp 盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>生物技术</b>- 这家德国生物技术公司将 Covid-19 疫苗的生产目标提高到 2021 年底前的 25 亿剂，其股价盘前大涨 4.9%。此前，BioNTech 的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞公司曾预测产量在 23 亿至 24 亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>事实集</b>- 这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度收益为每股 2.72 美元，比市场普遍预期低 2 美分，而收入与华尔街的预测一致。FactSet 还预测全年调整后每股收益为 10.75 美元至 11.15 美元，而市场普遍预期为 11.17 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>– 这家医疗产品制造商获得了 FDA 的紧急使用授权，用于一种新型快速抗原测试，该测试可以检测流感和 Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>选秀王</b>- 体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司 VSiN，收购金额未公开。DraftKings 股价盘前上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头 Metro AG 合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚电信公司欺诈股东的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上升1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 2%，至每桶 60.30 美元。布伦特原油下跌 1.9%，至每桶 63.77 美元。金价下跌 1.3%，至每盎司 1,689.76 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102162544","content_text":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.(March 30) U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&P 500 fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku & more1) Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital. Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.2) Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse – Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales. Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.3) Albertsons – The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.4) PayPal Holdings – PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.5) T-Mobile US – The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.6) McCormick & Co. – The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well. The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.  McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.7) Tegna – The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.8) Roku – The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.9) Yel – The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses. Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.10) BioNTech – The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021. Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.11) FactSet – The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.12) Becton Dickinson – The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.13) DraftKings – The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount. DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.14) Nio Inc - NIO has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.15) Nokia Oyj - A lawsuit against  Nokia Oyj alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355759762,"gmtCreate":1617108445156,"gmtModify":1634522626897,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just take the vaccines","listText":"Just take the vaccines","text":"Just take the vaccines","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355759762","repostId":"1165495068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355727299,"gmtCreate":1617108246211,"gmtModify":1634522628500,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just wait","listText":"Just wait","text":"Just wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355727299","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355727299,"gmtCreate":1617108246211,"gmtModify":1634522628500,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just wait","listText":"Just wait","text":"Just wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355727299","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354084790,"gmtCreate":1617112500110,"gmtModify":1634522591063,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy dun wait to regret","listText":"Buy dun wait to regret","text":"Buy dun wait to regret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354084790","repostId":"1193934463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340829097,"gmtCreate":1617374279719,"gmtModify":1634521189836,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&amp;P[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Patience has paid off for those who has bought S&P[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340829097","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354018962,"gmtCreate":1617112067856,"gmtModify":1634522596620,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354018962","repostId":"1102162544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102162544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617106353,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102162544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102162544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing a","content":"<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。</li><li>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至 0.95%，创 13 个月新高，随后票据出现批量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国由于 10 年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及 14 个月高点，股票期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔 500 指数较前一交易日创纪录的收盘价下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。三月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪每月亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 26 点，跌幅 0.08%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13.5 点，跌幅 0.34%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 91.25 点，跌幅 0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通信、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>- 在对冲基金 Archegos Capital 参与的股票被清盘后，这两只媒体股今早走高。Discovery 在连续 6 天下跌后，盘前上涨 1.6%，市值蒸发近 47%；Viacom 在连续 5 天下跌后，市值蒸发 55%，盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>- 野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在盘前交易中再次下滑，此前有消息称，由于 Archegos Capital 出售股票造成的预期损失，野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在周一的盘前交易中再次下滑。野村证券下跌 1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>– 这家连锁超市宣布与 Phabet 旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>– PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万家在线商家结账时使用加密货币。客户可以选择在完成购买之前将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>- 这家无线运营商将于 4 月底结束其 “TVision ”直播电视服务，转而为订阅谷歌 YouTube 电视服务的用户提供折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>- 这家香料和调味品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 72 美分，比市场普遍预期高出 13 美分，收入也超出预期。由于大流行病继续导致越来越多的消费者在家做饭，该公司还上调了全年预测。麦考密克股价在盘前交易中上涨了 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>画</b>– 该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股 7 美分提高到 9.5 美分，将于 7 月 1 日支付给截至 6 月 4 日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>- 这家视频流媒体设备制造商的股价盘前上涨了 1.6%，此前 Truist Financial 将其股票评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，理由是该公司认为有多个增加收入的机会以及当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>- 花旗将评论网站运营商的评级从 “中性 ”上调至 “买入 ”，花旗认为 Yelp 将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp 盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>生物技术</b>- 这家德国生物技术公司将 Covid-19 疫苗的生产目标提高到 2021 年底前的 25 亿剂，其股价盘前大涨 4.9%。此前，BioNTech 的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞公司曾预测产量在 23 亿至 24 亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>事实集</b>- 这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度收益为每股 2.72 美元，比市场普遍预期低 2 美分，而收入与华尔街的预测一致。FactSet 还预测全年调整后每股收益为 10.75 美元至 11.15 美元，而市场普遍预期为 11.17 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>– 这家医疗产品制造商获得了 FDA 的紧急使用授权，用于一种新型快速抗原测试，该测试可以检测流感和 Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>选秀王</b>- 体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司 VSiN，收购金额未公开。DraftKings 股价盘前上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头 Metro AG 合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚电信公司欺诈股东的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上升1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 2%，至每桶 60.30 美元。布伦特原油下跌 1.9%，至每桶 63.77 美元。金价下跌 1.3%，至每盎司 1,689.76 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.</li><li>TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.</li><li>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</li><li>Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.</li></ul>(March 30)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&amp;P 500&nbsp;fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国股指期货周二下跌。</li><li>道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。</li><li>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</li><li>十年期国债收益率升至1.76%。五年期利率升至 0.95%，创 13 个月新高，随后票据出现批量抛售。</li></ul>（3月30日）美国由于 10 年期国债收益率在早盘交易中触及 14 个月高点，股票期货周二下跌。周一，纳斯达克下跌，标准普尔 500 指数较前一交易日创纪录的收盘价下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Averagement）周一逆势收盘，再创历史新高，尽管受 Archegos Capital Management 保证金看涨期权混乱影响，银行股走软。三月份还剩两天，道琼斯指数和标普500指数本月稳步上涨。纳斯达克正在追踪每月亏损。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:00，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 26 点，跌幅 0.08%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 13.5 点，跌幅 0.34%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 91.25 点，跌幅 0.70%。</blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克 100 指数期货下跌 0.7%，亚马逊、苹果、Netflix 和微软盘前下跌 0.6% 至 0.8%，美国 10 年期国债收益率触及 14 个月高点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ede03a42bb32770210aaa7338d553\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:00</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：Discovery、ViacomCBS、瑞士信贷、PayPal、Roku等</b></blockquote></p><p>1)&nbsp;<b>Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS</b>– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital.&nbsp;Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>1) <b>探索通信、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司</b>- 在对冲基金 Archegos Capital 参与的股票被清盘后，这两只媒体股今早走高。Discovery 在连续 6 天下跌后，盘前上涨 1.6%，市值蒸发近 47%；Viacom 在连续 5 天下跌后，市值蒸发 55%，盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p>2)&nbsp;<b>Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse</b>&nbsp;– Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales.&nbsp;Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>2) <b>野村证券、瑞士信贷</b>- 野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在盘前交易中再次下滑，此前有消息称，由于 Archegos Capital 出售股票造成的预期损失，野村证券（Nomura）和瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）在周一的盘前交易中再次下滑。野村证券下跌 1.9%，瑞士信贷下跌 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p>3)&nbsp;<b>Albertsons</b>&nbsp;– The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.</p><p><blockquote>3) <b>艾伯森</b>– 这家连锁超市宣布与 Phabet 旗下的谷歌建立广泛的合作伙伴关系，将整合各种谷歌服务，以增强艾伯森顾客的购物体验。</blockquote></p><p>4)&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings</b>&nbsp;– PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>4) <b>PayPal控股</b>– PayPal将推出结账服务，允许美国客户在数百万家在线商家结账时使用加密货币。客户可以选择在完成购买之前将加密货币转换为法定货币。</blockquote></p><p>5)&nbsp;<b>T-Mobile US</b>&nbsp;– The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.</p><p><blockquote>5) <b>T-Mobile美国</b>- 这家无线运营商将于 4 月底结束其 “TVision ”直播电视服务，转而为订阅谷歌 YouTube 电视服务的用户提供折扣。</blockquote></p><p>6)&nbsp;<b>McCormick &amp; Co.</b>&nbsp;– The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well.&nbsp;The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.&nbsp; McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <b>麦考密克公司。</b>- 这家香料和调味品制造商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 72 美分，比市场普遍预期高出 13 美分，收入也超出预期。由于大流行病继续导致越来越多的消费者在家做饭，该公司还上调了全年预测。麦考密克股价在盘前交易中上涨了 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p>7)&nbsp;<b>Tegna</b>&nbsp;– The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.</p><p><blockquote>7) <b>画</b>– 该媒体公司将季度股息从之前的每股 7 美分提高到 9.5 美分，将于 7 月 1 日支付给截至 6 月 4 日登记在册的股东。</blockquote></p><p>8)&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;– The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>8) <b>Roku</b>- 这家视频流媒体设备制造商的股价盘前上涨了 1.6%，此前 Truist Financial 将其股票评级从 “持有 ”上调至 “买入 ”，理由是该公司认为有多个增加收入的机会以及当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>9)&nbsp;<b>Yel</b>&nbsp;– The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses.&nbsp;Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>9) <b>耶尔</b>- 花旗将评论网站运营商的评级从 “中性 ”上调至 “买入 ”，花旗认为 Yelp 将受益于未来几年的一系列趋势，包括餐厅重新开业和销售费用减少。Yelp 盘前上涨了 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p>10)&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;– The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.&nbsp;Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>10) <b>生物技术</b>- 这家德国生物技术公司将 Covid-19 疫苗的生产目标提高到 2021 年底前的 25 亿剂，其股价盘前大涨 4.9%。此前，BioNTech 的疫苗合作伙伴辉瑞公司曾预测产量在 23 亿至 24 亿剂之间。</blockquote></p><p>11)&nbsp;<b>FactSet</b>&nbsp;– The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts.&nbsp;FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.</p><p><blockquote>11) <b>事实集</b>- 这家金融信息提供商公布的调整后季度收益为每股 2.72 美元，比市场普遍预期低 2 美分，而收入与华尔街的预测一致。FactSet 还预测全年调整后每股收益为 10.75 美元至 11.15 美元，而市场普遍预期为 11.17 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>12)<b>&nbsp;Becton Dickinson</b>&nbsp;– The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>12)<b>贝克顿·迪金森</b>– 这家医疗产品制造商获得了 FDA 的紧急使用授权，用于一种新型快速抗原测试，该测试可以检测流感和 Covid-19。</blockquote></p><p>13)&nbsp;<b>DraftKings</b>&nbsp;– The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount.&nbsp;DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.</p><p><blockquote>13) <b>选秀王</b>- 体育博彩公司宣布收购体育博彩和内容公司 VSiN，收购金额未公开。DraftKings 股价盘前上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p>14)&nbsp;<b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.</p><p><blockquote>14) <b>蔚来公司</b> <b>-</b>据 cnEVpost 报道，蔚来已同意与德国零售巨头 Metro AG 合作建设电动汽车充电站和电池交换站。</blockquote></p><p>15)&nbsp;<b>Nokia Oyj</b>&nbsp;<b>-</b>&nbsp;A lawsuit against&nbsp;&nbsp;Nokia&nbsp;Oyj&nbsp;alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.</p><p><blockquote>15) <b>诺基亚</b> <b>-</b>据路透社报道，针对诺基亚电信公司欺诈股东的诉讼周一在纽约被驳回。</blockquote></p><p><b>These are some of the main moves in financial markets:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是金融市场的一些主要走势：</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Currencies</b></li></ul>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>货币</b></li></ul>彭博美元现货指数上涨0.3%。欧元下跌0.2%，至1.1736美元。英镑下跌0.1%，至1.3753美元。在岸人民币汇率变化不大，为1美元兑6.57元。日元贬值0.5%，至1美元兑110.35元。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Bonds</b></li></ul>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>债券</b></li></ul>10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.76%。两年期国债收益率上升1个基点至0.15%。德国10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点至-0.27%。英国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至0.848%。日本10年期国债收益率上升2个基点至0.091%。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Commodities</b></li></ul>West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>商品</b></li></ul>西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 2%，至每桶 60.30 美元。布伦特原油下跌 1.9%，至每桶 63.77 美元。金价下跌 1.3%，至每盎司 1,689.76 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102162544","content_text":"U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday.TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.Ten-year Treasury yields increased to 1.76%. The five-year rate rose as high as 0.95%, a 13-month high, followed by a block sale in the notes.(March 30) U.S. stock futures droppedTuesday as the10-year Treasury yieldhit a 14-month high in early trading. On Monday, the Nasdaq dropped and theS&P 500 fell from the previous session’s record close. TheDow Jones Industrial Averagebucked Monday’s downdraft,closing at another recorddespite weakness in bank stocks caught in the fallout of the Archegos Capital Management margin call chaos. With two days left in March, the Dow and S&P 500 were sitting on solid gains for the month. The Nasdaq was tracking for a monthly loss.At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were fell 91.25 points, or 0.70%.Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.7% as Amazon.com, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Microsoft Corp dropped between 0.6% and 0.8% premarket, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:00Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Discovery, ViacomCBS, Credit Suisse, PayPal, Roku & more1) Discovery Communications,ViacomCBS– The two media stocks are higher this morning, after being battered amid the liquidation of stocks involving hedge fund Archegos Capital. Discovery rose 1.6% premarket after a 6-day losing streak that stripped nearly 47% of its value, while Viacom gained 1.1% after a 5-day skid that saw it lose 55% of its value.2) Nomura Securities,Credit Suisse – Nomura and Credit Suisse slid again in premarket trading, after tumbling Monday on news of anticipated loss from the fallout of Archegos Capital’s stock sales. Nomura fell 1.9%, while Credit Suisse was down 2.6%.3) Albertsons – The supermarket chain announced a wide-ranging partnership withAlphabet-owned Google that will integrate a variety of Google services to enhance the shopping experience for Albertsons customers.4) PayPal Holdings – PayPal will launch acheckout service allowing U.S. customers to use cryptocurrency holdingswhen they check out at millions of online merchants. Customers will be given the option of converting cryptocurrency to fiat currencies before they complete their purchases.5) T-Mobile US – The wireless carrier will end its “TVision” live TV service at the end of April, and will instead offer its customers discounts to subscribe to Google’s YouTube TV service.6) McCormick & Co. – The spice and condiment maker reported adjusted quarterly profit of 72 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 13 cents, with revenue beating estimates as well. The company also raised its full-year forecast, as the pandemic continues to see more consumers cooking at home.  McCormick shares gained 2.1% in premarket action.7) Tegna – The media company increased its quarterly dividend to 9.5 cents per share from the prior 7 cents, payable on July 1 to stockholders of record as of June 4.8) Roku – The maker of video streaming devices saw its stock rise 1.6% premarket, after Truist Financial upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold” on what it sees as multiple opportunities for revenue enhancement as well as current valuation.9) Yel – The review site operator was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Citi, which sees Yelp benefiting from a number of trends over the next few years including restaurant reopenings and reduced sales expenses. Yelp gained 1.8% premarket.10) BioNTech – The German biotech company’s shares jumped 4.9% premarket after it raised its manufacturing goal for its Covid-19 vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021. Previously, BioNTech’s vaccine partnerPfizerhad predicted output of between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion.11) FactSet – The financial information provider reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, missing consensus estimates by 2 cents, while revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. FactSet also predicted full-year adjusted earnings of $10.75 to $11.15 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $11.17.12) Becton Dickinson – The medical-products maker received emergency use authorization from the FDA for a new rapid antigen test that can detect both flu and Covid-19.13) DraftKings – The sports betting company announced the acquisition of sports betting and content company VSiN for an undisclosed amount. DraftKings shares jumped 1% premarket.14) Nio Inc - NIO has agreed to partner with German retail giant Metro AG to construct electric vehicle charging stations and battery swap stations, cnEVpost reported.15) Nokia Oyj - A lawsuit against  Nokia Oyj alleging that the telecom company defrauded shareholders was dismissed in New York on Monday, Reuters reported.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.3%.The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1736.The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.3753.The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.57 per dollar.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 110.35 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose five basis points to 1.76%.The yield on two-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 0.15%.Germany’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to -0.27%.Britain’s 10-year yield increased six basis points to 0.848%.Japan’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.091%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude declined 2% to $60.30 a barrel.Brent crude dipped 1.9% to $63.77 a barrel.Gold weakened 1.3% to $1,689.76 an ounce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355759762,"gmtCreate":1617108445156,"gmtModify":1634522626897,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just take the vaccines","listText":"Just take the vaccines","text":"Just take the vaccines","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355759762","repostId":"1165495068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855833018,"gmtCreate":1635347781733,"gmtModify":1635347781833,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy can earn profit","listText":"Buy can earn profit","text":"Buy can earn profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855833018","repostId":"1186134889","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186134889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635145020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186134889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-25 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186134889","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continue","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着这家东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea 的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea 并没有像预期的那样在后大流行时期遭受博彩业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电子商务GMV继续爆炸式增长，尽管损失也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布大规模融资，凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是 Sea 的关键限制因素，股票交易价格约为远期收入的 14 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>大海：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li>  <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li>  <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li>  <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li>  <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着这家东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea 的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea 并没有像预期的那样在后大流行时期遭受博彩业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电子商务GMV继续爆炸式增长，尽管损失也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布大规模融资，凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是 Sea 的关键限制因素，股票交易价格约为远期收入的 14 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对 Sea (SE) 采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的上涨速度太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有疫情投资像Sea那样偶然。在大流行之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股 50 美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了 Sea 三个关键领域（在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付）的增长，Sea 的股价已超过 350 美元，自疫情开始以来上涨了约 7 倍，到 2021 年迄今为止上涨了近 2 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场的不安以及最近 9 月/10 月成长型股票的调整，我们不得不问：<b>大海真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my&nbsp;<b>neutral</b>&nbsp;opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>意见在海上。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票在五年后仍将是权重股。但我着眼于未来 1-2 年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超越了自己，短期内无法有意义地跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting&nbsp;<b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark&nbsp;<b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看看估值；以目前接近 355 美元的股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1,962 亿美元，已经成为超大型市值，超过了道琼斯 30 指数许多成分股的规模。在扣除 Sea 最新资产负债表上的 58.9 亿美元现金和 12.8 亿美元可转换债务后，该公司的结果<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计 2022 财年 Sea 将产生 135.4 亿美元的收入，同比增长 49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea 的贸易状况非常糟糕<b>14.1 倍 EV/2022 财年收入倍数。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea 的综合毛利率仅为约 40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约 15%。大海能走多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea 在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，随着调整后的 EBITDA 亏损继续增加，我很难相信对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出有意义的实现目标轨迹的公司来说，约 2000 亿美元的估值是合适的。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是 Sea 在一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在 2020 年和 2021 年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会坚挺吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的做法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是，后疫情时期，学校和办公室的回归，将削弱今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added&nbsp;<b>76 million net-new QAUs</b>&nbsp;in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果这是真的，它还没有发生。Sea 的季度活跃用户数量放缓至约 3800 万，Sea 补充道<b>7600万净新增QAU</b>第二季度的增速大致与前两个季度的总和相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长 85%，达到 9,220 万，付费用户占 Sea 总 QAU 的 13%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming 用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年同期的10%上升了三个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这其中蕴含着投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，也是我不反对的一个催化剂：Sea 已经拥有大量的专属受众，而且它也被证明擅长内容策划和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，内部开发，仍然是该公司最大的热门）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea 或许能够从这 7 亿多用户群中获得越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the&nbsp;Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 Sea 首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第二季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p>   Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.    It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.    Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"  We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools&nbsp;shifted back to online education&nbsp;after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的移动大逃杀游戏。根据 App Annie 的数据，第二季度 Google Play 上的平均月活跃用户排名全球第三。此外，Free Fire 本季度日活跃用户峰值超过 1.5 亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏达到这个规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，Free Fire在第二季度仍然是东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度收入最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，在印度也连续三个季度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了吸引力，根据App Annie，该游戏在过去两个季度被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。第二季度，《Free Fire》也是美国 Google Play 上所有游戏类别中收入第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的流行病影响。例如，在 Sea 的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天新冠病例激增后，学校又转向在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于 Sea 第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长 65%，达到 12 亿美元，但对于 2021 财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长率仅为 45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that&nbsp;<b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对 Sea 的持续担忧是：投资者何时才能最终无法忽视不断累积的损失？我继续强调<b>Sea 的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要看好后者，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。海运调整后 EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea 第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li>  <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>海洋还没有走上稳定的道路；该公司 2021 财年调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 -2410 万美元，而 2020 财年的利润为 770 万美元。</li><li>Gaming 调整后 EBITDA 同比增长约 3 亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务领域同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于 Sea 来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级 EBITDA 盈亏平衡。然而，Sea 最大的市场印度尼西亚继续落后（在这个市场，Sea 与 Tokopedia 等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP 亏损比调整后 EBITDA 要广泛得多；今年迄今为止，截至第二季度，Sea 的 GAAP 亏损为 -8.561 亿美元，净利润率为 -21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea&nbsp;recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea 最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了 35 亿美元的新美国存托股票和 25 亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出信号，表明在相当长的一段时间内，Sea 将需要运营之外的更多流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对 Sea 仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。巨额亏损和高估值在 2021 年牛市中似乎是古怪的概念，但展望 2022 年，当华尔街大多数人呼吁未来交易波动时，Sea 等成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340103427,"gmtCreate":1617348998069,"gmtModify":1634521284628,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"Tax will increase in US[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340103427","repostId":"1117428745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117428745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617326984,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117428745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117428745","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semicond","content":"<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>有关拜登总统大规模支出计划的新闻突出了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到巨大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始活跃起来。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68% 3 月 31 日上涨 2.4%，其所有 30 只成分股当日均出现上涨。SOXX 追踪 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX,+3.69%。在 30 只股票中，有 15 只较 2 月 16 日 SOXX 创下历史新高时下跌至少 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年 2 月，半导体行业协会 (SIA) 董事会致信拜登，董事会成员包括 Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%、Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%、Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%、Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%、Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62% 等公司。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已从 1990 年的 37% “稳步下降 ”至 12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是由于其他国家政府对半导体行业进行了大量投资，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。新航首席执行官约翰-诺伊弗（John Neuffer）在3月31日的一份声明中说，拜登的支出计划 “将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新--美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供 500 亿美元。此外，还将拨出 1740 亿美元，帮助美国 “赢得 ”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然将有助于特斯拉公司 TSLA,-0.93%, 但它也将支持汽车中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅收窄</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>该表显示了自 2 月 16 日（SOXX 创下历史新高的当天）收盘以来跌幅最大的 15 只 SOX 30 指数中的 15 只半导体行业股票：华尔街最受欢迎的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师共识价格目标所暗示的 15 只 12 个月上涨潜力最大的 SOXX 股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX 的远期市盈率为 22.7，SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08% 的远期市盈率为 21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese semiconductor stocks might benefit the most from Biden’s spending plan<blockquote>这些半导体股可能从拜登的支出计划中受益最大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.</p><p><blockquote>有关拜登总统大规模支出计划的新闻突出了基础设施。但美国半导体公司可能会看到巨大的好处，该行业的股票已经开始活跃起来。</blockquote></p><p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68% 3 月 31 日上涨 2.4%，其所有 30 只成分股当日均出现上涨。SOXX 追踪 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX,+3.69%。在 30 只股票中，有 15 只较 2 月 16 日 SOXX 创下历史新高时下跌至少 10%。</blockquote></p><p>Biden’s spending plan</p><p><blockquote>拜登的支出计划</blockquote></p><p>In February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.</p><p><blockquote>今年 2 月，半导体行业协会 (SIA) 董事会致信拜登，董事会成员包括 Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%、Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%、Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%、Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%、Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62% 等公司。</blockquote></p><p>They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)</p><p><blockquote>他们写道，美国在全球计算机芯片制造中的市场份额已从 1990 年的 37% “稳步下降 ”至 12%。SIA董事会表示，市场份额的损失主要是由于其他国家政府对半导体行业进行了大量投资，而美国则没有。（你可以在这里阅读整封信。）</blockquote></p><p>And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”</p><p><blockquote>现在总统正试图给美国半导体行业它想要的东西。新航首席执行官约翰-诺伊弗（John Neuffer）在3月31日的一份声明中说，拜登的支出计划 “将雄心勃勃地投资于美国半导体工人、制造业和创新--美国实力和未来的三大基石”。</blockquote></p><p>Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的投资策略师将芯片制造商列入了可能从拜登计划中受益的公司名单。</blockquote></p><p>The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>在全球芯片短缺的情况下，支出计划将包括为美国半导体行业提供 500 亿美元。此外，还将拨出 1740 亿美元，帮助美国 “赢得 ”电动汽车行业主导地位的全球竞争。这显然将有助于特斯拉公司 TSLA,-0.93%, 但它也将支持汽车中使用的无数计算机芯片的制造商。</blockquote></p><p>Chip stocks pare gains</p><p><blockquote>芯片股涨幅收窄</blockquote></p><p>This table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4804f0c18e685cdf504a6367364f6cb4\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocks</p><p><blockquote>该表显示了自 2 月 16 日（SOXX 创下历史新高的当天）收盘以来跌幅最大的 15 只 SOX 30 指数中的 15 只半导体行业股票：华尔街最受欢迎的半导体股票</blockquote></p><p>Here are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师共识价格目标所暗示的 15 只 12 个月上涨潜力最大的 SOXX 股票：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11d3aa68909b96aa726b3a4bc8339963\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.</p><p><blockquote>该表包括远期市盈率。相比之下，SOXX 的远期市盈率为 22.7，SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08% 的远期市盈率为 21.8。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔","SOX":"费城半导体指数","TXN":"德州仪器","SPY":"标普500ETF","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/semiconductor-stocks-are-getting-a-lift-from-bidens-big-spending-plan-11617274965?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117428745","content_text":"The news about President Biden’s massive spending plans highlights infrastructure. But U.S. semiconductor companies may see a big benefit, and stocks in the sector are already starting to perk up.The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETFSOXX,+3.68%was up 2.4% on March 31, with all 30 its components showing gains for the session. SOXX tracks the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,+3.69%.Among the 30 stocks, 15 are down at least 10% from Feb. 16, when SOXX hit its all-time high.Biden’s spending planIn February, the Semiconductor Industry Association’s (SIA) board of directors, which includes CEOs or senior executives of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD,+3.30%,Nvidia Corp.NVDA,+3.47%,Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,+3.92%,Intel Corp.INTC,+0.86%,Texas Instruments Inc.TXN,+1.62%and others, sent a letter to Biden.They wrote that the U.S. market share of global computer chip manufacturing had “steadily declined” to 12% from 37% in 1990. The SIA board said the loss of market share was largely the result of significant government investment in the semiconductor industry in other countries, while there was none in the U.S. (You can read the entire letterhere.)And now the president is trying to give the U.S. semiconductor industry what it wants. SIA CEO John Neuffer said in a statement on March 31 that Biden’s spending program “would invest ambitiously in U.S. semiconductor workers, manufacturing and innovation — three cornerstones of America’s strength and its future.”Investment strategists at Bank of America included chip makers in theirlistof companies that could benefit from the Biden plan.The spending package would include$50 billionfor the American semiconductor industry amid a worldwide shortage of chips. In addition, $174 billion would be set aside to help the U.S. “win” the worldwide competition for dominance in the electric-car industry. This would obviously help Tesla Inc.TSLA,-0.93%,but it would also support manufacturers of the myriad computer chips used in the vehicles.Chip stocks pare gainsThis table shows the 15 semiconductor-industry stocks among the SOX 30 that have declined the most since the close on Feb. 16, the day SOXX hit its all-time high:Wall Street’s favorite semiconductor stocksHere are the 15 SOXX stocks with the most 12-month upside potential implied by consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios. In comparison, the forward P/E ratio for SOXX is 22.7 and the forward P/E for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY,+1.08%is 21.8.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"XLNX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354014911,"gmtCreate":1617112197133,"gmtModify":1634522594787,"author":{"id":"3575032741986642","authorId":"3575032741986642","name":"AngelAw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8206a20c5dd9d81d85c5335051c8830","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575032741986642","authorIdStr":"3575032741986642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can buy","listText":"Can buy","text":"Can buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354014911","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}