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2021-09-16

Hi

@Michane:‌AMC Entertainment-buy/wait?

2021-08-16

Hi

How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>

2021-08-09

Hi

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2021-08-09

Thanks

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2021-08-09

Hi

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2021-08-08

Hi

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2021-08-08

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2021-08-08

Hi

Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，而这个迹象值得关注</blockquote>

2021-08-08

Hi

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2021-08-02

Hi

Semiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote>

2021-08-02

Hi

Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Hi

Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Hi

Infrastructure Spending Is on Its Way. Here’s a Cheap Way to Play It<blockquote>基础设施支出正在进行中。这里有一个便宜的玩法</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Hi grade

Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Hi

You can beat stock market indexes — this fund manager has, and this is how she and her team did it<blockquote>你可以击败股票市场指数——这位基金经理做到了，这就是她和她的团队做到的</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Thanks

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2021-07-31

Hi

This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Hi every one grad day

This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>

2021-07-30

Thanks

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2021-07-30

Hi

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And it does get tempting at times.Hence, just sharing a little&nbsp;analysis here for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Same as my previous analysis for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>, I would use the 3 indicators:1) MACD2) Bollinger bands3) RSIMACD showed that the BLUE&nbsp;line has already crossed the RED&nbsp;line for quite a while &amp; it seems it has already gotten over the \"edge\" &amp; soon it will get&nbsp;closer on converging with the RED&nbsp;line. So do not \"herd\" with&nbsp;the crowd &amp; enter at this point.Next, the bollinger bands looks like it is going to&nbsp;expand. So do be aware that if it does, it could dip any moment.And checking&nbsp;the RSI, I would also tak","listText":"I see a lot of tigers who have&nbsp;this share. And it does get tempting at times.Hence, just sharing a little&nbsp;analysis here for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Same as my previous analysis for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>, I would use the 3 indicators:1) MACD2) Bollinger bands3) RSIMACD showed that the BLUE&nbsp;line has already crossed the RED&nbsp;line for quite a while &amp; it seems it has already gotten over the \"edge\" &amp; soon it will get&nbsp;closer on converging with the RED&nbsp;line. So do not \"herd\" with&nbsp;the crowd &amp; enter at this point.Next, the bollinger bands looks like it is going to&nbsp;expand. So do be aware that if it does, it could dip any moment.And checking&nbsp;the RSI, I would also tak","text":"I see a lot of tigers who have this share. And it does get tempting at times.Hence, just sharing a little analysis here for $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Same as my previous analysis for $Apple(AAPL)$, I would use the 3 indicators:1) MACD2) Bollinger bands3) RSIMACD showed that the BLUE line has already crossed the RED line for quite a while & it seems it has already gotten over the \"edge\" & soon it will get closer on converging with the RED line. So do not \"herd\" with the crowd & enter at this point.Next, the bollinger bands looks like it is going to expand. So do be aware that if it does, it could dip any moment.And checking the RSI, I would also tak","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c83b824b62be0bc865d032e192b2aa9f","width":"1229","height":"2048"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814758137","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830867944,"gmtCreate":1629057676088,"gmtModify":1631888909573,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830867944","repostId":"2159214569","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159214569","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628989290,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159214569?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159214569","media":"MarkeWatch","summary":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.So where does Nio $$","content":"<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarkeWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news\">MarkeWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HMC":"本田汽车","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","STLA":"Stellantis NV"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159214569","content_text":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.\nA Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)\nChinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.\nThat might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.\nSo where does Nio $(NIO)$, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.\nDoubling car production\nFor the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.\nHere's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYou can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.\nFor now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.\nOne thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.\nAmong those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:\nFor Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.\nVolkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.\nFor Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.\nValuation to earnings estimates\nFor companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.\nA high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.\nThen again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.\nNormally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.\nFirst, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:\n\nNio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.\nValuation to sales\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.\nHere's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:\n\nFor reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalysts' opinions\nHere's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMC":0.9,"STLA":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898035705,"gmtCreate":1628448420007,"gmtModify":1631888909572,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898035705","repostId":"1180025090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898035519,"gmtCreate":1628448358331,"gmtModify":1631888909576,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898035519","repostId":"1190347839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898035226,"gmtCreate":1628448291765,"gmtModify":1631888909577,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898035226","repostId":"2157490509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891179270,"gmtCreate":1628360653290,"gmtModify":1631888909583,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891179270","repostId":"1177306817","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891179396,"gmtCreate":1628360537215,"gmtModify":1631888909588,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891179396","repostId":"1187374387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891170536,"gmtCreate":1628360318125,"gmtModify":1631888909591,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891170536","repostId":"1124487485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124487485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628258241,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124487485?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，而这个迹象值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124487485","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a to","content":"<p>  <b>S&amp;P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b>  The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500行业的相对实力排名闪烁着红色。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率（+0.08%）的领先指标，美国股市正接近顶部。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市见顶之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，各板块近期相对强弱的排名与这一模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>这是自五月中旬以来的一个重大变化，当时正如我报道的那样，这一领先指标没有检测到任何迫在眉睫的麻烦迹象。当时追踪三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在见顶之前引领市场的行业，追踪三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，各板块的相对强度排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Ned Davis Research 进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自 1970 年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据 Ned Davis Research 的数据，在过去牛市见顶之前的三个月里，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月中表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强度排名向看跌方向移动了多少，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据从最高值 1.0（这意味着各行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负 1.0（这意味着完全的负相关关系）不等。系数为零意味着没有可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，该系数大幅为负0.66。相比之下，今天是正0.67。这是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两个（也不是任何指标，就此而言）都不能保证有效。2015 年 4 月，我关于该指标的专栏文章标题为 “领先指标预示着市场见顶 ”。根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史模式之间的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加悲观。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，而这个迹象值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，而这个迹象值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 21:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>S&amp;P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b>  The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500行业的相对实力排名闪烁着红色。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率（+0.08%）的领先指标，美国股市正接近顶部。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市见顶之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，各板块近期相对强弱的排名与这一模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>这是自五月中旬以来的一个重大变化，当时正如我报道的那样，这一领先指标没有检测到任何迫在眉睫的麻烦迹象。当时追踪三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在见顶之前引领市场的行业，追踪三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，各板块的相对强度排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Ned Davis Research 进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自 1970 年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据 Ned Davis Research 的数据，在过去牛市见顶之前的三个月里，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月中表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强度排名向看跌方向移动了多少，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据从最高值 1.0（这意味着各行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负 1.0（这意味着完全的负相关关系）不等。系数为零意味着没有可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，该系数大幅为负0.66。相比之下，今天是正0.67。这是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两个（也不是任何指标，就此而言）都不能保证有效。2015 年 4 月，我关于该指标的专栏文章标题为 “领先指标预示着市场见顶 ”。根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史模式之间的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加悲观。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124487485","content_text":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.\nOver the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.\nThis is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.\nNow, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.\nAccording to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.\n\nIn contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.\nTo quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.\nIn mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.\nNeedless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891170843,"gmtCreate":1628360274382,"gmtModify":1631888909593,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891170843","repostId":"1187374387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804959623,"gmtCreate":1627917472162,"gmtModify":1631888909598,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804959623","repostId":"1183793139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183793139","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627914562,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183793139?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183793139","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(August 2) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broa","content":"<p>(August 2)&nbsp;The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）芯片制造商 ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) 公布强劲盈利和上行预测后，费城半导体指数上涨 1.6%，跑赢了更广泛科技板块 (NYSEARCA:XLK) 0.3% 的涨幅，尽管供应链持续受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> ON Semiconductor stock surges over&nbsp;14%&nbsp;after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.</p><p><blockquote>盈利创纪录超出预期，前景乐观，半导体股价飙升超过 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor Corp.</a> (ON) shot up over&nbsp;14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.</p><p><blockquote>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体公司</a>(ON) 在周一早盘交易中飙升超过 14%，此前这家芯片制造商公布了创纪录的调整后利润和收入，超出预期，并提供了乐观的前景，理由是汽车和工业终端市场需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Net income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.</li>  <li>Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.</li>  <li>Revenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.</li>  <li>For the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.</li>  <li>Gross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.</li> </ul> The stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has advanced 17.0%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>净利润为 1.841 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分，去年同期亏损 14 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分。</li><li>不包括非经常性项目，调整后每股收益从 12 美分增至创纪录的 63 美分，超过了 FactSet 共识的 49 美分。</li><li>收入增长 37.6%，达到 16.7 亿美元，高于 FactSet 共识的 16.2 亿美元。</li><li>该公司预计第三季度调整后每股收益为 68 美分至 80 美分，收入为 16.6 亿美元至 17.6 亿美元，高于 FactSet 普遍预期的每股收益为 51 美分，收入为 16.1 亿美元。</li><li>毛利率预计将从第二季度的38.3%改善至第三季度的38.8%至40.9%。</li></ul>截至周五，该股今年迄今已上涨 19.3%，而 PHLX 半导体指数上涨 20.1%，标普500上涨 17.0%。</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 指出，尽管全球芯片短缺仍在继续，但 ON 仍呼吁“汽车和工业终端市场的需求加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Top semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.</p><p><blockquote>半导体涨幅最大的公司包括 ON 的汽车芯片同行 Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) 和恩智浦半导体 (NXPI +2.6%)，后者今天盘后公布了财报。半导体设备公司应用材料公司 (AMAT +3.2%) 和 Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) 也是科技涨幅最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.</p><p><blockquote>Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) 在宣布计划进行 10 亿美元的修改荷兰拍卖后继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29705170f6277ecc6c92943d45c08bb7\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks rally after ON Semi's strong earnings<blockquote>半导体股因 Semi 强劲盈利而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 2)&nbsp;The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>（8 月 2 日）芯片制造商 ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) 公布强劲盈利和上行预测后，费城半导体指数上涨 1.6%，跑赢了更广泛科技板块 (NYSEARCA:XLK) 0.3% 的涨幅，尽管供应链持续受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> ON Semiconductor stock surges over&nbsp;14%&nbsp;after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.</p><p><blockquote>盈利创纪录超出预期，前景乐观，半导体股价飙升超过 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor Corp.</a> (ON) shot up over&nbsp;14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.</p><p><blockquote>股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体公司</a>(ON) 在周一早盘交易中飙升超过 14%，此前这家芯片制造商公布了创纪录的调整后利润和收入，超出预期，并提供了乐观的前景，理由是汽车和工业终端市场需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Net income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.</li>  <li>Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.</li>  <li>Revenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.</li>  <li>For the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.</li>  <li>Gross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.</li> </ul> The stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has advanced 17.0%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>净利润为 1.841 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分，去年同期亏损 14 亿美元，即每股收益 42 美分。</li><li>不包括非经常性项目，调整后每股收益从 12 美分增至创纪录的 63 美分，超过了 FactSet 共识的 49 美分。</li><li>收入增长 37.6%，达到 16.7 亿美元，高于 FactSet 共识的 16.2 亿美元。</li><li>该公司预计第三季度调整后每股收益为 68 美分至 80 美分，收入为 16.6 亿美元至 17.6 亿美元，高于 FactSet 普遍预期的每股收益为 51 美分，收入为 16.1 亿美元。</li><li>毛利率预计将从第二季度的38.3%改善至第三季度的38.8%至40.9%。</li></ul>截至周五，该股今年迄今已上涨 19.3%，而 PHLX 半导体指数上涨 20.1%，标普500上涨 17.0%。</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 指出，尽管全球芯片短缺仍在继续，但 ON 仍呼吁“汽车和工业终端市场的需求加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Top semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.</p><p><blockquote>半导体涨幅最大的公司包括 ON 的汽车芯片同行 Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) 和恩智浦半导体 (NXPI +2.6%)，后者今天盘后公布了财报。半导体设备公司应用材料公司 (AMAT +3.2%) 和 Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) 也是科技涨幅最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.</p><p><blockquote>Silicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) 在宣布计划进行 10 亿美元的修改荷兰拍卖后继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29705170f6277ecc6c92943d45c08bb7\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183793139","content_text":"(August 2) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.6%, outperforming the 0.3% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) after chipmaker ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) reported strong earnings and an upside forecast despite the continuing supply chain constraints.\nON Semiconductor stock surges over 14% after record earnings that beat expectations, upbeat outlook.\nShares of ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON) shot up over 14% in morning trading Monday, after the chipmaker reported record adjusted profit and revenue that beat expectations and provided an upbeat outlook, citing accelerating demand in the automotive and industrial end markets.\n\nNet income was $184.1 million, or 42 cents a share, after a loss of $1.4 billion, or roughly breakeven on a per-share basis, in the year-ago period.\nExcluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share increased to a record 63 cents from 12 cents, beating the FactSet consensus of 49 cents.\nRevenue grew 37.6% to $1.67 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.62 billion.\nFor the third quarter, the company expects adjusted EPS of 68 cents to 80 cents and revenue of $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion, above the FactSet consensus for EPS of 51 cents and revenue of $1.61 billion.\nGross margin is expected to improve to 38.8% to 40.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% in the second quarter.\n\nThe stock has rallied 19.3% year to date through Friday, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has run up 20.1% and the S&P 500 has advanced 17.0%.\nMKM Partners notes that ON called out \"accelerating demand for the auto and industrial end markets\" even as the global chip shortage continues.\nTop semiconductor gainers include ON's auto chip peers Microchip (MCHP +3.3%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +2.6%) with the latter reporting earnings today after the bell. Semiconductor equipment players Applied Materials (AMAT +3.2%) and Lam Research (LRCX +2.0%) are also among the top tech gainers.\nSilicon Labs (SLAB +4.2%) continues to rally after announcing plans for a $1B modified Dutch auction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805981744,"gmtCreate":1627837852388,"gmtModify":1631891858365,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805981744","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802851895,"gmtCreate":1627767743717,"gmtModify":1631891858385,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802851895","repostId":"1154216466","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154216466","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627713678,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154216466?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154216466","media":"Barron's","summary":"About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson Unive","content":"<p><i>About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;His latest book is</i>The Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.</p><p><blockquote><i>关于作者：托马斯·W·黑兹利特是H.H。麦考利是克莱姆森大学经济学捐赠教授，曾担任联邦通信委员会首席经济学家。他的最新著作是</i>政治光谱：无线技术的动荡解放，从赫伯特·胡佛到智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> Big Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&amp;T-Time Warner merger.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司正处于反垄断的风口浪尖。但在司法部试图拆分谷歌或苹果等公司之前，它应该回顾一下 T&amp;T 与时代华纳合并的历史和最终结果。</blockquote></p><p> The DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&amp;T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.</p><p><blockquote>司法部花费了大量时间和资源阻止 AT&amp;T 收购时代华纳，这标志着司法部 40 多年来首次挑战重大垂直合并。尽管政府尽了最大努力，包括向华盛顿巡回法院提出上诉，但还是没有成功，时间表明，它的担忧显然一直是错误的。合并没有导致价格上涨、项目中断，甚至没有给公司带来任何明显的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2016 AT&amp;Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.&nbsp; Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement: &nbsp;“AT&amp;T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”&nbsp; With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 10 月，美国电话电报公司宣布计划收购时代华纳。唐纳德-特朗普的总统竞选团队在一份声明中否决了这一合并： “美国电话电报公司.现在正试图收购时代华纳，从而收购狂热反特朗普的 CNN。唐纳德-特朗普绝不会批准这样的交易”。特朗普上任后，司法部采取行动阻止了这一交易。</blockquote></p><p> In 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&amp;T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&amp;T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&amp;T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.</p><p><blockquote>2017 年，司法部向法院投诉称，合并将允许 AT&amp;T “利用时代华纳的 '必备 '网络，如 CNN、TNT、TBS 和 HBO，提高向康卡斯特或 DISH 等竞争对手有线电视分销商收取的费用，从而 “大大减少视频领域的竞争”。收购了国家卫星运营商 DirecTV 的 AT&amp;T 可能会威胁 “停电 ”，剥夺竞争对手分销商的关键节目--他们的用户随后会退出并涌向 DirecTV（AT&amp;T），以便继续在 TNT 上观看 CNN 或 NBA 季后赛。不仅主要的电视和有线电视系统会受到损害，新兴的在线流媒体服务也会受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> The government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets.&nbsp;Here, AT&amp;T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt.&nbsp;Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality.&nbsp;So facts, not just a story, are needed.&nbsp; District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”</p><p><blockquote>政府的案例集中在 “垂直杠杆”上，即一家公司使用两种互补的产品，使竞争对手更难在各自的市场上竞争。在这种情况下，AT&amp;T 将视频内容创作与视频节目发行相结合；指控称，这两个领域的竞争对手都可能受到伤害。然而，正如在对垂直一体化公司的研究中广泛发现的那样，联合运营提高了消费者的幸福感，这显然会带来效率。好市多（Costco）的买家急于snap好市多（Costco）供应的柯克兰（Kirkland）产品，如果这些产品能提高价格或质量，零售商就会囤积柯克兰（Kirkland）产品。因此，我们需要的是事实，而不仅仅是一个故事。地区法院法官 Richard J. Leon 认为，司法部的案件 “远不能证明其.理论的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years.&nbsp;Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”</p><p><blockquote>除了此案的政治色彩之外，还有充分的历史理由怀疑官方的投诉。一家有线电视节目主持人近年来多次与一家视频发行商合并（或分拆）。计量经济学分析表明，垂直整合并没有导致更高的价格。正如司法部承认的那样，垂直整合也不会导致 “停电”。华盛顿特区巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭确认了莱昂法官的意见，认为 “近年来，随着 Netflix 和 Hulu 等公司的出现，该行业变得充满活力”。</blockquote></p><p> Owning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&amp;T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&amp;T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion.&nbsp;In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，共同拥有 DirecTV 和时代华纳并没有多大优势，更不用说垄断了。尽管大流行病对视频内容的需求大大增加，但竞争对手很快就吃了 AT&amp;T-时代华纳的午餐。AT&amp;T 在 2015 年收购 DirecTV 时支付了 670 亿美元。2021 年 2 月，随着 DirecTV 的卫星用户群崩溃，分拆业务的估值为 163 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> And AT&amp;Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&amp;T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&amp;T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.</p><p><blockquote>美国电话电报公司随后卸载了时代华纳的视频资产。一家新企业——华纳兄弟探索频道——正在分拆并与探索频道（探索频道、动物星球、TLC、HGTV、食品网络等）合并。这家只做内容的公司自愿切断了DOJ批评为容易垄断金钱的链接。由于反竞争捆绑的指控，它已被放弃，因为不值得麻烦。 AT&amp;T 股东获得 430 亿美元，不到三年前 AT&amp;T 为时代华纳花费的 1000 亿美元（债务和股权）的一半。政府提出的反竞争垂直一体化方案被证明是一种幻想。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AT&amp;T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&amp;T so spectacularly failed to do in video.&nbsp; Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.</p><p><blockquote>AT&amp;T 的举动值得数十亿股东损失所带来的蔑视。愤世嫉俗者可能会建议加强反垄断法，以防止此类公司错误，而忽略了经济处罚——比反垄断执法者可能处理的任何事情都更可靠、更严厉——显然已经到位。但是很少有人注意到这个具有讽刺意味的政治传奇。政策制定者们正在全力制定法规，以加强对科技领域的反垄断起诉，而美国电话电报公司（AT&amp;T）在视频中却未能做到这一点。众议员普拉米拉-贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal，民主党-华盛顿州）和众议员兰斯-古登（Lance Gooden，共和党-德克萨斯州）提出了 “终止垄断平台法案”，该法案将限制在线服务的垂直合并。至少还有五项新的反垄断规则法案已经出台。</blockquote></p><p> Not only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast).&nbsp;Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&amp;T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success. </p><p><blockquote>此类政策不仅可能是昂贵的法律转移，还会阻碍为客户点燃令人兴奋的新选择的创新。在推出Roku后，Netflix 已将流媒体整合到电影制作中。Hulu 由新闻集团（Fox）和 NBC-Universal（Comcast）创建。亚马逊 Prime Video、Sling、YouTube TV、苹果电视台、Disney Plus、HBO Max 和派拉蒙 Plus——每个都扩展了大型媒体或电子商务平台。每一个都是从对更好产品的追求演变而来的。将创业视为嫌疑人只会加剧目前扰乱在线娱乐市场的混乱。美国电话电报公司惨痛地认识到，拥有互补产品并不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAntitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;His latest book is</i>The Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.</p><p><blockquote><i>关于作者：托马斯·W·黑兹利特是H.H。麦考利是克莱姆森大学经济学捐赠教授，曾担任联邦通信委员会首席经济学家。他的最新著作是</i>政治光谱：无线技术的动荡解放，从赫伯特·胡佛到智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> Big Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&amp;T-Time Warner merger.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司正处于反垄断的风口浪尖。但在司法部试图拆分谷歌或苹果等公司之前，它应该回顾一下 T&amp;T 与时代华纳合并的历史和最终结果。</blockquote></p><p> The DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&amp;T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.</p><p><blockquote>司法部花费了大量时间和资源阻止 AT&amp;T 收购时代华纳，这标志着司法部 40 多年来首次挑战重大垂直合并。尽管政府尽了最大努力，包括向华盛顿巡回法院提出上诉，但还是没有成功，时间表明，它的担忧显然一直是错误的。合并没有导致价格上涨、项目中断，甚至没有给公司带来任何明显的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2016 AT&amp;Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.&nbsp; Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement: &nbsp;“AT&amp;T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”&nbsp; With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 10 月，美国电话电报公司宣布计划收购时代华纳。唐纳德-特朗普的总统竞选团队在一份声明中否决了这一合并： “美国电话电报公司.现在正试图收购时代华纳，从而收购狂热反特朗普的 CNN。唐纳德-特朗普绝不会批准这样的交易”。特朗普上任后，司法部采取行动阻止了这一交易。</blockquote></p><p> In 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&amp;T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&amp;T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&amp;T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.</p><p><blockquote>2017 年，司法部向法院投诉称，合并将允许 AT&amp;T “利用时代华纳的 '必备 '网络，如 CNN、TNT、TBS 和 HBO，提高向康卡斯特或 DISH 等竞争对手有线电视分销商收取的费用，从而 “大大减少视频领域的竞争”。收购了国家卫星运营商 DirecTV 的 AT&amp;T 可能会威胁 “停电 ”，剥夺竞争对手分销商的关键节目--他们的用户随后会退出并涌向 DirecTV（AT&amp;T），以便继续在 TNT 上观看 CNN 或 NBA 季后赛。不仅主要的电视和有线电视系统会受到损害，新兴的在线流媒体服务也会受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> The government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets.&nbsp;Here, AT&amp;T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt.&nbsp;Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality.&nbsp;So facts, not just a story, are needed.&nbsp; District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”</p><p><blockquote>政府的案例集中在 “垂直杠杆”上，即一家公司使用两种互补的产品，使竞争对手更难在各自的市场上竞争。在这种情况下，AT&amp;T 将视频内容创作与视频节目发行相结合；指控称，这两个领域的竞争对手都可能受到伤害。然而，正如在对垂直一体化公司的研究中广泛发现的那样，联合运营提高了消费者的幸福感，这显然会带来效率。好市多（Costco）的买家急于snap好市多（Costco）供应的柯克兰（Kirkland）产品，如果这些产品能提高价格或质量，零售商就会囤积柯克兰（Kirkland）产品。因此，我们需要的是事实，而不仅仅是一个故事。地区法院法官 Richard J. Leon 认为，司法部的案件 “远不能证明其.理论的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years.&nbsp;Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”</p><p><blockquote>除了此案的政治色彩之外，还有充分的历史理由怀疑官方的投诉。一家有线电视节目主持人近年来多次与一家视频发行商合并（或分拆）。计量经济学分析表明，垂直整合并没有导致更高的价格。正如司法部承认的那样，垂直整合也不会导致 “停电”。华盛顿特区巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭确认了莱昂法官的意见，认为 “近年来，随着 Netflix 和 Hulu 等公司的出现，该行业变得充满活力”。</blockquote></p><p> Owning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&amp;T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&amp;T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion.&nbsp;In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，共同拥有 DirecTV 和时代华纳并没有多大优势，更不用说垄断了。尽管大流行病对视频内容的需求大大增加，但竞争对手很快就吃了 AT&amp;T-时代华纳的午餐。AT&amp;T 在 2015 年收购 DirecTV 时支付了 670 亿美元。2021 年 2 月，随着 DirecTV 的卫星用户群崩溃，分拆业务的估值为 163 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> And AT&amp;Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&amp;T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&amp;T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.</p><p><blockquote>美国电话电报公司随后卸载了时代华纳的视频资产。一家新企业——华纳兄弟探索频道——正在分拆并与探索频道（探索频道、动物星球、TLC、HGTV、食品网络等）合并。这家只做内容的公司自愿切断了DOJ批评为容易垄断金钱的链接。由于反竞争捆绑的指控，它已被放弃，因为不值得麻烦。 AT&amp;T 股东获得 430 亿美元，不到三年前 AT&amp;T 为时代华纳花费的 1000 亿美元（债务和股权）的一半。政府提出的反竞争垂直一体化方案被证明是一种幻想。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AT&amp;T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&amp;T so spectacularly failed to do in video.&nbsp; Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.</p><p><blockquote>AT&amp;T 的举动值得数十亿股东损失所带来的蔑视。愤世嫉俗者可能会建议加强反垄断法，以防止此类公司错误，而忽略了经济处罚——比反垄断执法者可能处理的任何事情都更可靠、更严厉——显然已经到位。但是很少有人注意到这个具有讽刺意味的政治传奇。政策制定者们正在全力制定法规，以加强对科技领域的反垄断起诉，而美国电话电报公司（AT&amp;T）在视频中却未能做到这一点。众议员普拉米拉-贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal，民主党-华盛顿州）和众议员兰斯-古登（Lance Gooden，共和党-德克萨斯州）提出了 “终止垄断平台法案”，该法案将限制在线服务的垂直合并。至少还有五项新的反垄断规则法案已经出台。</blockquote></p><p> Not only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast).&nbsp;Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&amp;T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success. </p><p><blockquote>此类政策不仅可能是昂贵的法律转移，还会阻碍为客户点燃令人兴奋的新选择的创新。在推出Roku后，Netflix 已将流媒体整合到电影制作中。Hulu 由新闻集团（Fox）和 NBC-Universal（Comcast）创建。亚马逊 Prime Video、Sling、YouTube TV、苹果电视台、Disney Plus、HBO Max 和派拉蒙 Plus——每个都扩展了大型媒体或电子商务平台。每一个都是从对更好产品的追求演变而来的。将创业视为嫌疑人只会加剧目前扰乱在线娱乐市场的混乱。美国电话电报公司惨痛地认识到，拥有互补产品并不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/antitrust-activists-want-to-go-full-throttle-heres-a-lesson-they-should-consider-first-51627509048?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_3\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/antitrust-activists-want-to-go-full-throttle-heres-a-lesson-they-should-consider-first-51627509048?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154216466","content_text":"About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission. His latest book isThe Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.\nBig Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&T-Time Warner merger.\nThe DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.\nIn October 2016 AT&Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.  Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement:  “AT&T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”  With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.\nIn 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.\nThe government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets. Here, AT&T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt. Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality. So facts, not just a story, are needed.  District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”\nAside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years. Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”\nOwning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion. In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.\nAnd AT&Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.\nAT&T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&T so spectacularly failed to do in video.  Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.\nNot only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast). Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802851925,"gmtCreate":1627767701167,"gmtModify":1631891858396,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802851925","repostId":"1186334150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186334150","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627713845,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186334150?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 14:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Infrastructure Spending Is on Its Way. Here’s a Cheap Way to Play It<blockquote>基础设施支出正在进行中。这里有一个便宜的玩法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186334150","media":"Barron's","summary":"U.S. lawmakers appear to be on the cusp of passing a massive and long-awaitedinfrastructure-investme","content":"<p>U.S. lawmakers appear to be on the cusp of passing a massive and long-awaitedinfrastructure-investment bill, totaling some $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>美国立法者似乎即将通过一项期待已久的大规模基础设施投资法案，总额约为 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The legislation should be a boost to businesses like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMC\">Vulcan Materials</a>(ticker: VMC) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLM\">Martin Marietta Materials</a>(MLM), which make concrete and asphalt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>(CAT) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEX\">Terex</a>(TEX), which make construction equipment; and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URI\">United Rentals</a>(URI), which rents the machinery. Most of their stocks have already jumped on theprospect of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>这项立法应该会对以下企业起到推动作用：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMC\">火神材料</a>（股票代码：VMC）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLM\">马丁·玛丽埃塔材料</a>（MLM），生产混凝土和沥青；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">毛虫</a>（猫）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEX\">特雷克斯</a>（TEX），制造建筑设备；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URI\">联合租赁</a>（URI），租赁机器。由于基础设施支出的前景，他们的大多数股票已经上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> infrastructure play has been overlooked:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFH\">Atlas</a> Technical Consultants(ATCX) provides engineering and design services, inspection and certification of buildings and public works, and other construction-related services. More construction means more plans and designs for Atlas to review. These eventually become finished projects that need annual inspections, paying dividends for years.</p><p><blockquote>但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>基础设施的发挥被忽视了：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFH\">地图集</a>技术顾问（ATCX）提供工程和设计服务、建筑物和公共工程的检查和认证以及其他与建筑相关的服务。更多的建设意味着更多的计划和设计供阿特拉斯审查。这些最终成为需要年检的成品项目，支付多年的红利。</blockquote></p><p> And yet Atlas shares have stalled. At a recent $9, the stock trades for just eight times enterprise value to estimated 2022 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. That multiple is a significant discount to companies in related inspection businesses, such asMontrose Environmental Group(MEG) andTetra Tech(TTEK), which trade for more than 22 times EV/2022 Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿特拉斯股价却停滞不前。该股最近的价格为 9 美元，其交易价格仅为企业价值的八倍，即 2022 年息税折旧摊销前利润 (Ebitda)。对于相关检测业务的公司来说，这个倍数是一个很大的折扣，例如 Montrose Environmental Group (MEG) 和 Tetra Tech (TTEK)，它们的交易价格是 EV/2022 年 Ebitda 的 22 倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ad62f427fb70a25aa96068bc5d1756\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“Right now, part of the valuation discount is due to the debt, but I would say there are companies like Atlas where the debt is appropriate,” says Kevin Silverman, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at small-cap–focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STL\">Sterling</a> Partners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">Equity</a> Advisors, which owns more than $2 million worth of Atlas stock, accounting for about 2% of its assets under management. “The debt helps equity holders if you have steady profit margins and can use it for growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“专注于小盘股的公司首席投资官兼投资组合经理凯文-西尔弗曼（Kevin Silverman）表示：”目前，估值折扣的部分原因是债务，但我认为像阿特拉斯这样的公司的债务是合适的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STL\">英镑</a>合伙人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">公平</a>Advisors 拥有价值超过 200 万美元的 Atlas 股票，约占其管理资产的 2%。“如果你有稳定的利润率，并能将其用于增长，那么债务就能帮助股东。”</blockquote></p><p> And Atlas has substantial opportunities for growth. Beyond the infrastructure-bill boost, Atlas has a long-term strategy of consolidating the fragmented U.S. inspection-services market while reducing its debt levels. Both should increase its appeal to investors and earn it a higher valuation multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 拥有巨大的增长机会。除了基础设施法案的增加之外，Atlas 还有一项长期战略，即整合分散的美国检验服务市场，同时降低其债务水平。两者都应该增加其对投资者的吸引力，并为其赢得更高的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> The Austin, Texas–headquartered company went public inearly 2020via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. The deal saddled the company with a convoluted capital structure, including multiple share classes, outstanding warrants, and other complications. That complexity has probably kept some investors away, as has Atlas’ relatively high debt load, which comes to 5.5 times net debt to 2021 Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的公司于 2020 年初通过与一家特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) 合并上市。这笔交易给该公司带来了复杂的资本结构，包括多种股票类别、未发行的认股权证和其他复杂情况。这种复杂性可能让一些投资者望而却步，Atlas 相对较高的债务负担也是如此，2021 年 Ebitda 的债务是净债务的 5.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bb73a7c212bfed6d0890b8b14fbc15\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Atlas has reduced that complexity—redeeming its preferred equity, buying out warrants, and increasing the stock’s publicly traded float—and is focused on bringing its net debt below three times Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 已经降低了这种复杂性--赎回其优先股、买断认股权证和增加股票的公开交易流通量--并专注于将其净债务降至 Ebitda 的三倍以下。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas is forecast to grow sales 13% this year, to $530 million, with Ebitda up 21%, to $76 million.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 预计今年销售额将增长 13%，达到 5.3 亿美元，Ebitda 将增长 21%，达到 7600 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Its customers include state departments of transportation, private building owners, electric and water utilities, airports, schools, hospitals, and more. Its national presence and leading scale helps win and retain marquee projects and big clients, including the U.S. Postal <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCI\">Service</a>, the Environmental Protection Agency, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a> Housing Authority, Stanford University,Walmart(WMT), and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>其客户包括州交通部门、私人建筑业主、电力和自来水公司、机场、学校、医院等。其全国影响力和领先规模有助于赢得和留住大型项目和大客户，包括美国邮政<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCI\">服务</a>环境保护局<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>房管局、斯坦福大学、沃尔玛 (WMT) 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>（苹果）。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas earned $64 million in adjusted Ebitda over the past four reported quarters, while it had a net loss of $18 million. As of the end of the first quarter, the company had a backlog of $689 million, or more than 140% of its last 12 months’ revenue of $482 million. “I’ve been in this business for 30 years, and it’s by far the highest I’ve seen,” Atlas CEO Joe Boyer tells<i>Barron’s</i>.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 在过去四个报告季度的调整后 Ebitda 盈利 6400 万美元，而净亏损 1800 万美元。截至第一季度末，该公司积压了 6.89 亿美元的订单，占过去 12 个月 4.82 亿美元收入的 140% 以上。“Atlas 首席执行官乔-博耶（Joe Boyer）说：”我从事这个行业已经 30 年了，这是迄今为止我所见过的最高的一次。<i>巴伦</i>.</blockquote></p><p> About 70% of the company’s revenue comes from work on existing buildings, pipes, roads, and bridges. Those jobs are nondiscretionary: As we’ve tragically learned at times, infrastructure needs to be inspected and brought up to code at regular intervals, no matter what the economic or pandemic situation is.</p><p><blockquote>该公司约 70% 的收入来自现有建筑、管道、道路和桥梁的建设。这些工作是非自由裁量的： 正如我们有时悲惨地了解到的那样，无论经济或大流行病形势如何，基础设施都需要定期检查并符合规范。</blockquote></p><p> The remaining 30% of Atlas’ sales are tied to new construction, which dipped during the pandemic but is nearly back to pre-Covid-19 levels, according to Boyer.</p><p><blockquote>据 Boyer 称，Atlas 其余 30% 的销售额与新建筑有关，新建筑在大流行病期间有所下降，但已接近 Covid-19 之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A long-term trend toward outsourcing services by cities and states, stricter environmental standards, and aging infrastructure in the U.S. have been drivers of Atlas’ organic growth in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，美国城市和州将服务外包的长期趋势、更严格的环境标准以及基础设施的老化一直是 Atlas 有机增长的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> That trend has been responsible for about half of Atlas’ 20% compound annual growth in sales since 2016, when it was owned by private-equity firm Bernhard Capital Partners. The other avenue for growth has been Atlas’ acquisition strategy.</p><p><blockquote>自 2016 年私募股权公司 Bernhard Capital Partners 收购 Atlas 以来，这一趋势约占 Atlas 年销售额 20% 复合增长率的一半。另一条增长途径是阿特拉斯的收购战略。</blockquote></p><p> “The idea is to find a company in a geography or a service that we don’t dominate in, bring it onto our platform, and cross-sell across our network,” Boyer says.</p><p><blockquote>“博耶说：”我们的想法是在我们不占据主导地位的地区或服务中找到一家公司，将其引入我们的平台，并在我们的网络中进行交叉销售。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas’ sweet spot for acquisition targets is about $5 million to $20 million in Ebitda, The company typically pays four to six times Ebitda in a mix of cash and stock. That makes each deal immediately accretive to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 收购目标的最佳利润约为 500 万至 2000 万美元的 Ebitda，该公司通常以现金和股票的组合支付 Ebitda 的四到六倍。这使得每笔交易都会立即增加收益。</blockquote></p><p> As a small and relatively young public company, Atlas gets minimal coverage from Wall Street, but the three analysts who cover the firm are bullish. “We think the company is in end markets that are strong or recovering; they’ve been winning large contracts, and its backlog has been growing,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SF\">Stifel</a> analyst Noelle Dilts. “So, we feel good about the fundamental revenue outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>作为一家小型且相对年轻的上市公司，Atlas 从华尔街获得的报道很少，但报道该公司的三位分析师都看好该公司。“我们认为该公司所处的终端市场强劲或正在复苏；他们一直在赢得大合同，而且积压的订单也在不断增长，”他说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SF\">斯蒂费尔</a>分析师诺埃尔·迪尔茨。“因此，我们对基本收入前景感到满意”。</blockquote></p><p> She rates Atlas a Buy, with a $14.50 price target, or 11 times her estimate of 2022 Ebitda, which doesn’t include any upside from a potential infrastructure bill. Using a 15 times Ebitda multiple, Sterling’s Silverman sees shares going to $43 three years from now, as debt paydown continues and earnings rise.</p><p><blockquote>她给予 Atlas 买入评级，目标价为 14.50 美元，是她对 2022 年 Ebitda 预估的 11 倍，这还不包括潜在的基础设施账单带来的任何上涨空间。Sterling's Silverman 采用 15 倍的 Ebitda 倍数，预计三年后，随着债务偿还的继续和盈利的上升，股价将达到 43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas’ balance sheet remains a fixer-upper, but the company has the right foundation.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 的资产负债表仍然是一个固定的上限，但该公司拥有良好的基础。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Infrastructure Spending Is on Its Way. Here’s a Cheap Way to Play It<blockquote>基础设施支出正在进行中。这里有一个便宜的玩法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInfrastructure Spending Is on Its Way. Here’s a Cheap Way to Play It<blockquote>基础设施支出正在进行中。这里有一个便宜的玩法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 14:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. lawmakers appear to be on the cusp of passing a massive and long-awaitedinfrastructure-investment bill, totaling some $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>美国立法者似乎即将通过一项期待已久的大规模基础设施投资法案，总额约为 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The legislation should be a boost to businesses like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMC\">Vulcan Materials</a>(ticker: VMC) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLM\">Martin Marietta Materials</a>(MLM), which make concrete and asphalt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>(CAT) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEX\">Terex</a>(TEX), which make construction equipment; and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URI\">United Rentals</a>(URI), which rents the machinery. Most of their stocks have already jumped on theprospect of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>这项立法应该会对以下企业起到推动作用：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMC\">火神材料</a>（股票代码：VMC）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLM\">马丁·玛丽埃塔材料</a>（MLM），生产混凝土和沥青；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">毛虫</a>（猫）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEX\">特雷克斯</a>（TEX），制造建筑设备；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URI\">联合租赁</a>（URI），租赁机器。由于基础设施支出的前景，他们的大多数股票已经上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> infrastructure play has been overlooked:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFH\">Atlas</a> Technical Consultants(ATCX) provides engineering and design services, inspection and certification of buildings and public works, and other construction-related services. More construction means more plans and designs for Atlas to review. These eventually become finished projects that need annual inspections, paying dividends for years.</p><p><blockquote>但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>基础设施的发挥被忽视了：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFH\">地图集</a>技术顾问（ATCX）提供工程和设计服务、建筑物和公共工程的检查和认证以及其他与建筑相关的服务。更多的建设意味着更多的计划和设计供阿特拉斯审查。这些最终成为需要年检的成品项目，支付多年的红利。</blockquote></p><p> And yet Atlas shares have stalled. At a recent $9, the stock trades for just eight times enterprise value to estimated 2022 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. That multiple is a significant discount to companies in related inspection businesses, such asMontrose Environmental Group(MEG) andTetra Tech(TTEK), which trade for more than 22 times EV/2022 Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿特拉斯股价却停滞不前。该股最近的价格为 9 美元，其交易价格仅为企业价值的八倍，即 2022 年息税折旧摊销前利润 (Ebitda)。对于相关检测业务的公司来说，这个倍数是一个很大的折扣，例如 Montrose Environmental Group (MEG) 和 Tetra Tech (TTEK)，它们的交易价格是 EV/2022 年 Ebitda 的 22 倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ad62f427fb70a25aa96068bc5d1756\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“Right now, part of the valuation discount is due to the debt, but I would say there are companies like Atlas where the debt is appropriate,” says Kevin Silverman, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at small-cap–focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STL\">Sterling</a> Partners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">Equity</a> Advisors, which owns more than $2 million worth of Atlas stock, accounting for about 2% of its assets under management. “The debt helps equity holders if you have steady profit margins and can use it for growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“专注于小盘股的公司首席投资官兼投资组合经理凯文-西尔弗曼（Kevin Silverman）表示：”目前，估值折扣的部分原因是债务，但我认为像阿特拉斯这样的公司的债务是合适的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STL\">英镑</a>合伙人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">公平</a>Advisors 拥有价值超过 200 万美元的 Atlas 股票，约占其管理资产的 2%。“如果你有稳定的利润率，并能将其用于增长，那么债务就能帮助股东。”</blockquote></p><p> And Atlas has substantial opportunities for growth. Beyond the infrastructure-bill boost, Atlas has a long-term strategy of consolidating the fragmented U.S. inspection-services market while reducing its debt levels. Both should increase its appeal to investors and earn it a higher valuation multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 拥有巨大的增长机会。除了基础设施法案的增加之外，Atlas 还有一项长期战略，即整合分散的美国检验服务市场，同时降低其债务水平。两者都应该增加其对投资者的吸引力，并为其赢得更高的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> The Austin, Texas–headquartered company went public inearly 2020via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. The deal saddled the company with a convoluted capital structure, including multiple share classes, outstanding warrants, and other complications. That complexity has probably kept some investors away, as has Atlas’ relatively high debt load, which comes to 5.5 times net debt to 2021 Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的公司于 2020 年初通过与一家特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) 合并上市。这笔交易给该公司带来了复杂的资本结构，包括多种股票类别、未发行的认股权证和其他复杂情况。这种复杂性可能让一些投资者望而却步，Atlas 相对较高的债务负担也是如此，2021 年 Ebitda 的债务是净债务的 5.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bb73a7c212bfed6d0890b8b14fbc15\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Atlas has reduced that complexity—redeeming its preferred equity, buying out warrants, and increasing the stock’s publicly traded float—and is focused on bringing its net debt below three times Ebitda.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 已经降低了这种复杂性--赎回其优先股、买断认股权证和增加股票的公开交易流通量--并专注于将其净债务降至 Ebitda 的三倍以下。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas is forecast to grow sales 13% this year, to $530 million, with Ebitda up 21%, to $76 million.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 预计今年销售额将增长 13%，达到 5.3 亿美元，Ebitda 将增长 21%，达到 7600 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Its customers include state departments of transportation, private building owners, electric and water utilities, airports, schools, hospitals, and more. Its national presence and leading scale helps win and retain marquee projects and big clients, including the U.S. Postal <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCI\">Service</a>, the Environmental Protection Agency, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a> Housing Authority, Stanford University,Walmart(WMT), and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>其客户包括州交通部门、私人建筑业主、电力和自来水公司、机场、学校、医院等。其全国影响力和领先规模有助于赢得和留住大型项目和大客户，包括美国邮政<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCI\">服务</a>环境保护局<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>房管局、斯坦福大学、沃尔玛 (WMT) 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>（苹果）。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas earned $64 million in adjusted Ebitda over the past four reported quarters, while it had a net loss of $18 million. As of the end of the first quarter, the company had a backlog of $689 million, or more than 140% of its last 12 months’ revenue of $482 million. “I’ve been in this business for 30 years, and it’s by far the highest I’ve seen,” Atlas CEO Joe Boyer tells<i>Barron’s</i>.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 在过去四个报告季度的调整后 Ebitda 盈利 6400 万美元，而净亏损 1800 万美元。截至第一季度末，该公司积压了 6.89 亿美元的订单，占过去 12 个月 4.82 亿美元收入的 140% 以上。“Atlas 首席执行官乔-博耶（Joe Boyer）说：”我从事这个行业已经 30 年了，这是迄今为止我所见过的最高的一次。<i>巴伦</i>.</blockquote></p><p> About 70% of the company’s revenue comes from work on existing buildings, pipes, roads, and bridges. Those jobs are nondiscretionary: As we’ve tragically learned at times, infrastructure needs to be inspected and brought up to code at regular intervals, no matter what the economic or pandemic situation is.</p><p><blockquote>该公司约 70% 的收入来自现有建筑、管道、道路和桥梁的建设。这些工作是非自由裁量的： 正如我们有时悲惨地了解到的那样，无论经济或大流行病形势如何，基础设施都需要定期检查并符合规范。</blockquote></p><p> The remaining 30% of Atlas’ sales are tied to new construction, which dipped during the pandemic but is nearly back to pre-Covid-19 levels, according to Boyer.</p><p><blockquote>据 Boyer 称，Atlas 其余 30% 的销售额与新建筑有关，新建筑在大流行病期间有所下降，但已接近 Covid-19 之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A long-term trend toward outsourcing services by cities and states, stricter environmental standards, and aging infrastructure in the U.S. have been drivers of Atlas’ organic growth in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，美国城市和州将服务外包的长期趋势、更严格的环境标准以及基础设施的老化一直是 Atlas 有机增长的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> That trend has been responsible for about half of Atlas’ 20% compound annual growth in sales since 2016, when it was owned by private-equity firm Bernhard Capital Partners. The other avenue for growth has been Atlas’ acquisition strategy.</p><p><blockquote>自 2016 年私募股权公司 Bernhard Capital Partners 收购 Atlas 以来，这一趋势约占 Atlas 年销售额 20% 复合增长率的一半。另一条增长途径是阿特拉斯的收购战略。</blockquote></p><p> “The idea is to find a company in a geography or a service that we don’t dominate in, bring it onto our platform, and cross-sell across our network,” Boyer says.</p><p><blockquote>“博耶说：”我们的想法是在我们不占据主导地位的地区或服务中找到一家公司，将其引入我们的平台，并在我们的网络中进行交叉销售。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas’ sweet spot for acquisition targets is about $5 million to $20 million in Ebitda, The company typically pays four to six times Ebitda in a mix of cash and stock. That makes each deal immediately accretive to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 收购目标的最佳利润约为 500 万至 2000 万美元的 Ebitda，该公司通常以现金和股票的组合支付 Ebitda 的四到六倍。这使得每笔交易都会立即增加收益。</blockquote></p><p> As a small and relatively young public company, Atlas gets minimal coverage from Wall Street, but the three analysts who cover the firm are bullish. “We think the company is in end markets that are strong or recovering; they’ve been winning large contracts, and its backlog has been growing,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SF\">Stifel</a> analyst Noelle Dilts. “So, we feel good about the fundamental revenue outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>作为一家小型且相对年轻的上市公司，Atlas 从华尔街获得的报道很少，但报道该公司的三位分析师都看好该公司。“我们认为该公司所处的终端市场强劲或正在复苏；他们一直在赢得大合同，而且积压的订单也在不断增长，”他说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SF\">斯蒂费尔</a>分析师诺埃尔·迪尔茨。“因此，我们对基本收入前景感到满意”。</blockquote></p><p> She rates Atlas a Buy, with a $14.50 price target, or 11 times her estimate of 2022 Ebitda, which doesn’t include any upside from a potential infrastructure bill. Using a 15 times Ebitda multiple, Sterling’s Silverman sees shares going to $43 three years from now, as debt paydown continues and earnings rise.</p><p><blockquote>她给予 Atlas 买入评级，目标价为 14.50 美元，是她对 2022 年 Ebitda 预估的 11 倍，这还不包括潜在的基础设施账单带来的任何上涨空间。Sterling's Silverman 采用 15 倍的 Ebitda 倍数，预计三年后，随着债务偿还的继续和盈利的上升，股价将达到 43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Atlas’ balance sheet remains a fixer-upper, but the company has the right foundation.</p><p><blockquote>Atlas 的资产负债表仍然是一个固定的上限，但该公司拥有良好的基础。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/infrastructure-buy-atlas-technical-consultants-stock-51627684191?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/infrastructure-buy-atlas-technical-consultants-stock-51627684191?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186334150","content_text":"U.S. lawmakers appear to be on the cusp of passing a massive and long-awaitedinfrastructure-investment bill, totaling some $1 trillion.\nThe legislation should be a boost to businesses likeVulcan Materials(ticker: VMC) andMartin Marietta Materials(MLM), which make concrete and asphalt;Caterpillar(CAT) andTerex(TEX), which make construction equipment; andUnited Rentals(URI), which rents the machinery. Most of their stocks have already jumped on theprospect of infrastructure spending.\nBut one infrastructure play has been overlooked:Atlas Technical Consultants(ATCX) provides engineering and design services, inspection and certification of buildings and public works, and other construction-related services. More construction means more plans and designs for Atlas to review. These eventually become finished projects that need annual inspections, paying dividends for years.\nAnd yet Atlas shares have stalled. At a recent $9, the stock trades for just eight times enterprise value to estimated 2022 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. That multiple is a significant discount to companies in related inspection businesses, such asMontrose Environmental Group(MEG) andTetra Tech(TTEK), which trade for more than 22 times EV/2022 Ebitda.\n“Right now, part of the valuation discount is due to the debt, but I would say there are companies like Atlas where the debt is appropriate,” says Kevin Silverman, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at small-cap–focused Sterling Partners Equity Advisors, which owns more than $2 million worth of Atlas stock, accounting for about 2% of its assets under management. “The debt helps equity holders if you have steady profit margins and can use it for growth.”\nAnd Atlas has substantial opportunities for growth. Beyond the infrastructure-bill boost, Atlas has a long-term strategy of consolidating the fragmented U.S. inspection-services market while reducing its debt levels. Both should increase its appeal to investors and earn it a higher valuation multiple.\nThe Austin, Texas–headquartered company went public inearly 2020via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. The deal saddled the company with a convoluted capital structure, including multiple share classes, outstanding warrants, and other complications. That complexity has probably kept some investors away, as has Atlas’ relatively high debt load, which comes to 5.5 times net debt to 2021 Ebitda.\n\nAtlas has reduced that complexity—redeeming its preferred equity, buying out warrants, and increasing the stock’s publicly traded float—and is focused on bringing its net debt below three times Ebitda.\nAtlas is forecast to grow sales 13% this year, to $530 million, with Ebitda up 21%, to $76 million.\nIts customers include state departments of transportation, private building owners, electric and water utilities, airports, schools, hospitals, and more. Its national presence and leading scale helps win and retain marquee projects and big clients, including the U.S. Postal Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, the New York City Housing Authority, Stanford University,Walmart(WMT), andApple(AAPL).\nAtlas earned $64 million in adjusted Ebitda over the past four reported quarters, while it had a net loss of $18 million. As of the end of the first quarter, the company had a backlog of $689 million, or more than 140% of its last 12 months’ revenue of $482 million. “I’ve been in this business for 30 years, and it’s by far the highest I’ve seen,” Atlas CEO Joe Boyer tellsBarron’s.\nAbout 70% of the company’s revenue comes from work on existing buildings, pipes, roads, and bridges. Those jobs are nondiscretionary: As we’ve tragically learned at times, infrastructure needs to be inspected and brought up to code at regular intervals, no matter what the economic or pandemic situation is.\nThe remaining 30% of Atlas’ sales are tied to new construction, which dipped during the pandemic but is nearly back to pre-Covid-19 levels, according to Boyer.\nA long-term trend toward outsourcing services by cities and states, stricter environmental standards, and aging infrastructure in the U.S. have been drivers of Atlas’ organic growth in recent years.\nThat trend has been responsible for about half of Atlas’ 20% compound annual growth in sales since 2016, when it was owned by private-equity firm Bernhard Capital Partners. The other avenue for growth has been Atlas’ acquisition strategy.\n“The idea is to find a company in a geography or a service that we don’t dominate in, bring it onto our platform, and cross-sell across our network,” Boyer says.\nAtlas’ sweet spot for acquisition targets is about $5 million to $20 million in Ebitda, The company typically pays four to six times Ebitda in a mix of cash and stock. That makes each deal immediately accretive to earnings.\nAs a small and relatively young public company, Atlas gets minimal coverage from Wall Street, but the three analysts who cover the firm are bullish. “We think the company is in end markets that are strong or recovering; they’ve been winning large contracts, and its backlog has been growing,” says Stifel analyst Noelle Dilts. “So, we feel good about the fundamental revenue outlook.”\nShe rates Atlas a Buy, with a $14.50 price target, or 11 times her estimate of 2022 Ebitda, which doesn’t include any upside from a potential infrastructure bill. Using a 15 times Ebitda multiple, Sterling’s Silverman sees shares going to $43 three years from now, as debt paydown continues and earnings rise.\nAtlas’ balance sheet remains a fixer-upper, but the company has the right foundation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802860703,"gmtCreate":1627753084202,"gmtModify":1631891858408,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi grade&nbsp;","listText":"Hi grade&nbsp;","text":"Hi grade","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802860703","repostId":"1154216466","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154216466","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627713678,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154216466?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154216466","media":"Barron's","summary":"About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson Unive","content":"<p><i>About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;His latest book is</i>The Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.</p><p><blockquote><i>关于作者：托马斯·W·黑兹利特是H.H。麦考利是克莱姆森大学经济学捐赠教授，曾担任联邦通信委员会首席经济学家。他的最新著作是</i>政治光谱：无线技术的动荡解放，从赫伯特·胡佛到智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> Big Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&amp;T-Time Warner merger.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司正处于反垄断的风口浪尖。但在司法部试图拆分谷歌或苹果等公司之前，它应该回顾一下 T&amp;T 与时代华纳合并的历史和最终结果。</blockquote></p><p> The DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&amp;T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.</p><p><blockquote>司法部花费了大量时间和资源阻止 AT&amp;T 收购时代华纳，这标志着司法部 40 多年来首次挑战重大垂直合并。尽管政府尽了最大努力，包括向华盛顿巡回法院提出上诉，但还是没有成功，时间表明，它的担忧显然一直是错误的。合并没有导致价格上涨、项目中断，甚至没有给公司带来任何明显的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2016 AT&amp;Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.&nbsp; Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement: &nbsp;“AT&amp;T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”&nbsp; With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 10 月，美国电话电报公司宣布计划收购时代华纳。唐纳德-特朗普的总统竞选团队在一份声明中否决了这一合并： “美国电话电报公司.现在正试图收购时代华纳，从而收购狂热反特朗普的 CNN。唐纳德-特朗普绝不会批准这样的交易”。特朗普上任后，司法部采取行动阻止了这一交易。</blockquote></p><p> In 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&amp;T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&amp;T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&amp;T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.</p><p><blockquote>2017 年，司法部向法院投诉称，合并将允许 AT&amp;T “利用时代华纳的 '必备 '网络，如 CNN、TNT、TBS 和 HBO，提高向康卡斯特或 DISH 等竞争对手有线电视分销商收取的费用，从而 “大大减少视频领域的竞争”。收购了国家卫星运营商 DirecTV 的 AT&amp;T 可能会威胁 “停电 ”，剥夺竞争对手分销商的关键节目--他们的用户随后会退出并涌向 DirecTV（AT&amp;T），以便继续在 TNT 上观看 CNN 或 NBA 季后赛。不仅主要的电视和有线电视系统会受到损害，新兴的在线流媒体服务也会受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> The government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets.&nbsp;Here, AT&amp;T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt.&nbsp;Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality.&nbsp;So facts, not just a story, are needed.&nbsp; District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”</p><p><blockquote>政府的案例集中在 “垂直杠杆”上，即一家公司使用两种互补的产品，使竞争对手更难在各自的市场上竞争。在这种情况下，AT&amp;T 将视频内容创作与视频节目发行相结合；指控称，这两个领域的竞争对手都可能受到伤害。然而，正如在对垂直一体化公司的研究中广泛发现的那样，联合运营提高了消费者的幸福感，这显然会带来效率。好市多（Costco）的买家急于snap好市多（Costco）供应的柯克兰（Kirkland）产品，如果这些产品能提高价格或质量，零售商就会囤积柯克兰（Kirkland）产品。因此，我们需要的是事实，而不仅仅是一个故事。地区法院法官 Richard J. Leon 认为，司法部的案件 “远不能证明其.理论的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years.&nbsp;Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”</p><p><blockquote>除了此案的政治色彩之外，还有充分的历史理由怀疑官方的投诉。一家有线电视节目主持人近年来多次与一家视频发行商合并（或分拆）。计量经济学分析表明，垂直整合并没有导致更高的价格。正如司法部承认的那样，垂直整合也不会导致 “停电”。华盛顿特区巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭确认了莱昂法官的意见，认为 “近年来，随着 Netflix 和 Hulu 等公司的出现，该行业变得充满活力”。</blockquote></p><p> Owning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&amp;T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&amp;T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion.&nbsp;In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，共同拥有 DirecTV 和时代华纳并没有多大优势，更不用说垄断了。尽管大流行病对视频内容的需求大大增加，但竞争对手很快就吃了 AT&amp;T-时代华纳的午餐。AT&amp;T 在 2015 年收购 DirecTV 时支付了 670 亿美元。2021 年 2 月，随着 DirecTV 的卫星用户群崩溃，分拆业务的估值为 163 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> And AT&amp;Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&amp;T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&amp;T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.</p><p><blockquote>美国电话电报公司随后卸载了时代华纳的视频资产。一家新企业——华纳兄弟探索频道——正在分拆并与探索频道（探索频道、动物星球、TLC、HGTV、食品网络等）合并。这家只做内容的公司自愿切断了DOJ批评为容易垄断金钱的链接。由于反竞争捆绑的指控，它已被放弃，因为不值得麻烦。 AT&amp;T 股东获得 430 亿美元，不到三年前 AT&amp;T 为时代华纳花费的 1000 亿美元（债务和股权）的一半。政府提出的反竞争垂直一体化方案被证明是一种幻想。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AT&amp;T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&amp;T so spectacularly failed to do in video.&nbsp; Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.</p><p><blockquote>AT&amp;T 的举动值得数十亿股东损失所带来的蔑视。愤世嫉俗者可能会建议加强反垄断法，以防止此类公司错误，而忽略了经济处罚——比反垄断执法者可能处理的任何事情都更可靠、更严厉——显然已经到位。但是很少有人注意到这个具有讽刺意味的政治传奇。政策制定者们正在全力制定法规，以加强对科技领域的反垄断起诉，而美国电话电报公司（AT&amp;T）在视频中却未能做到这一点。众议员普拉米拉-贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal，民主党-华盛顿州）和众议员兰斯-古登（Lance Gooden，共和党-德克萨斯州）提出了 “终止垄断平台法案”，该法案将限制在线服务的垂直合并。至少还有五项新的反垄断规则法案已经出台。</blockquote></p><p> Not only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast).&nbsp;Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&amp;T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success. </p><p><blockquote>此类政策不仅可能是昂贵的法律转移，还会阻碍为客户点燃令人兴奋的新选择的创新。在推出Roku后，Netflix 已将流媒体整合到电影制作中。Hulu 由新闻集团（Fox）和 NBC-Universal（Comcast）创建。亚马逊 Prime Video、Sling、YouTube TV、苹果电视台、Disney Plus、HBO Max 和派拉蒙 Plus——每个都扩展了大型媒体或电子商务平台。每一个都是从对更好产品的追求演变而来的。将创业视为嫌疑人只会加剧目前扰乱在线娱乐市场的混乱。美国电话电报公司惨痛地认识到，拥有互补产品并不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Antitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAntitrust Activists Want to Go Full Throttle. Here’s a Lesson They Should Consider First<blockquote>反垄断活动家想要全力以赴。这是他们应该首先考虑的一个教训</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission.&nbsp;His latest book is</i>The Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.</p><p><blockquote><i>关于作者：托马斯·W·黑兹利特是H.H。麦考利是克莱姆森大学经济学捐赠教授，曾担任联邦通信委员会首席经济学家。他的最新著作是</i>政治光谱：无线技术的动荡解放，从赫伯特·胡佛到智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> Big Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&amp;T-Time Warner merger.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司正处于反垄断的风口浪尖。但在司法部试图拆分谷歌或苹果等公司之前，它应该回顾一下 T&amp;T 与时代华纳合并的历史和最终结果。</blockquote></p><p> The DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&amp;T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.</p><p><blockquote>司法部花费了大量时间和资源阻止 AT&amp;T 收购时代华纳，这标志着司法部 40 多年来首次挑战重大垂直合并。尽管政府尽了最大努力，包括向华盛顿巡回法院提出上诉，但还是没有成功，时间表明，它的担忧显然一直是错误的。合并没有导致价格上涨、项目中断，甚至没有给公司带来任何明显的优势。</blockquote></p><p> In October 2016 AT&amp;Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.&nbsp; Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement: &nbsp;“AT&amp;T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”&nbsp; With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.</p><p><blockquote>2016 年 10 月，美国电话电报公司宣布计划收购时代华纳。唐纳德-特朗普的总统竞选团队在一份声明中否决了这一合并： “美国电话电报公司.现在正试图收购时代华纳，从而收购狂热反特朗普的 CNN。唐纳德-特朗普绝不会批准这样的交易”。特朗普上任后，司法部采取行动阻止了这一交易。</blockquote></p><p> In 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&amp;T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&amp;T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&amp;T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.</p><p><blockquote>2017 年，司法部向法院投诉称，合并将允许 AT&amp;T “利用时代华纳的 '必备 '网络，如 CNN、TNT、TBS 和 HBO，提高向康卡斯特或 DISH 等竞争对手有线电视分销商收取的费用，从而 “大大减少视频领域的竞争”。收购了国家卫星运营商 DirecTV 的 AT&amp;T 可能会威胁 “停电 ”，剥夺竞争对手分销商的关键节目--他们的用户随后会退出并涌向 DirecTV（AT&amp;T），以便继续在 TNT 上观看 CNN 或 NBA 季后赛。不仅主要的电视和有线电视系统会受到损害，新兴的在线流媒体服务也会受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> The government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets.&nbsp;Here, AT&amp;T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt.&nbsp;Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality.&nbsp;So facts, not just a story, are needed.&nbsp; District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”</p><p><blockquote>政府的案例集中在 “垂直杠杆”上，即一家公司使用两种互补的产品，使竞争对手更难在各自的市场上竞争。在这种情况下，AT&amp;T 将视频内容创作与视频节目发行相结合；指控称，这两个领域的竞争对手都可能受到伤害。然而，正如在对垂直一体化公司的研究中广泛发现的那样，联合运营提高了消费者的幸福感，这显然会带来效率。好市多（Costco）的买家急于snap好市多（Costco）供应的柯克兰（Kirkland）产品，如果这些产品能提高价格或质量，零售商就会囤积柯克兰（Kirkland）产品。因此，我们需要的是事实，而不仅仅是一个故事。地区法院法官 Richard J. Leon 认为，司法部的案件 “远不能证明其.理论的有效性”。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years.&nbsp;Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”</p><p><blockquote>除了此案的政治色彩之外，还有充分的历史理由怀疑官方的投诉。一家有线电视节目主持人近年来多次与一家视频发行商合并（或分拆）。计量经济学分析表明，垂直整合并没有导致更高的价格。正如司法部承认的那样，垂直整合也不会导致 “停电”。华盛顿特区巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭确认了莱昂法官的意见，认为 “近年来，随着 Netflix 和 Hulu 等公司的出现，该行业变得充满活力”。</blockquote></p><p> Owning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&amp;T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&amp;T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion.&nbsp;In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，共同拥有 DirecTV 和时代华纳并没有多大优势，更不用说垄断了。尽管大流行病对视频内容的需求大大增加，但竞争对手很快就吃了 AT&amp;T-时代华纳的午餐。AT&amp;T 在 2015 年收购 DirecTV 时支付了 670 亿美元。2021 年 2 月，随着 DirecTV 的卫星用户群崩溃，分拆业务的估值为 163 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> And AT&amp;Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&amp;T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&amp;T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.</p><p><blockquote>美国电话电报公司随后卸载了时代华纳的视频资产。一家新企业——华纳兄弟探索频道——正在分拆并与探索频道（探索频道、动物星球、TLC、HGTV、食品网络等）合并。这家只做内容的公司自愿切断了DOJ批评为容易垄断金钱的链接。由于反竞争捆绑的指控，它已被放弃，因为不值得麻烦。 AT&amp;T 股东获得 430 亿美元，不到三年前 AT&amp;T 为时代华纳花费的 1000 亿美元（债务和股权）的一半。政府提出的反竞争垂直一体化方案被证明是一种幻想。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AT&amp;T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&amp;T so spectacularly failed to do in video.&nbsp; Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.</p><p><blockquote>AT&amp;T 的举动值得数十亿股东损失所带来的蔑视。愤世嫉俗者可能会建议加强反垄断法，以防止此类公司错误，而忽略了经济处罚——比反垄断执法者可能处理的任何事情都更可靠、更严厉——显然已经到位。但是很少有人注意到这个具有讽刺意味的政治传奇。政策制定者们正在全力制定法规，以加强对科技领域的反垄断起诉，而美国电话电报公司（AT&amp;T）在视频中却未能做到这一点。众议员普拉米拉-贾亚帕尔（Pramila Jayapal，民主党-华盛顿州）和众议员兰斯-古登（Lance Gooden，共和党-德克萨斯州）提出了 “终止垄断平台法案”，该法案将限制在线服务的垂直合并。至少还有五项新的反垄断规则法案已经出台。</blockquote></p><p> Not only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast).&nbsp;Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&amp;T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success. </p><p><blockquote>此类政策不仅可能是昂贵的法律转移，还会阻碍为客户点燃令人兴奋的新选择的创新。在推出Roku后，Netflix 已将流媒体整合到电影制作中。Hulu 由新闻集团（Fox）和 NBC-Universal（Comcast）创建。亚马逊 Prime Video、Sling、YouTube TV、苹果电视台、Disney Plus、HBO Max 和派拉蒙 Plus——每个都扩展了大型媒体或电子商务平台。每一个都是从对更好产品的追求演变而来的。将创业视为嫌疑人只会加剧目前扰乱在线娱乐市场的混乱。美国电话电报公司惨痛地认识到，拥有互补产品并不能保证成功。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/antitrust-activists-want-to-go-full-throttle-heres-a-lesson-they-should-consider-first-51627509048?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_3\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/antitrust-activists-want-to-go-full-throttle-heres-a-lesson-they-should-consider-first-51627509048?mod=hp_COMMENTARY_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154216466","content_text":"About the author: Thomas W. Hazlett is H.H. Macaulay endowed professor of economics at Clemson University, and previously served as chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission. His latest book isThe Political Spectrum: The Tumultuous Liberation of Wireless Technologies, from Herbert Hoover to the Smartphone.\nBig Tech is in the antitrust hot seat. But before the Department of Justice tries to break up companies likeGoogleorApple,it should recall the history, and eventual outcome, of theAT&T-Time Warner merger.\nThe DOJ expended extensive time and resources to stop AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner, marking the department’s first challenge to a major vertical merger in over 40 years. The government was unsuccessful despite its best efforts, which included an appeal to the D.C. Circuit, and time reveals that its concerns were evidently misplaced all along. The merger did not result in higher prices, program blackouts, or even any appreciable advantage for the companies.\nIn October 2016 AT&Tannouncedits plan to buy Time Warner.  Donald Trump’s presidential campaign trashed the merger in a statement:  “AT&T … is now trying to buy Time Warner and thus the wildly anti-Trump CNN. Donald Trump would never approve such a deal.”  With Trump in office, the DOJ moved to block it.\nIn 2017, the DOJ went to court tocomplainthat the merger would “substantially lessen competition in video” by allowing AT&T to “use Time Warner’s ‘must have’” networks like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO to raise fees charged to rival cable TV distributors like Comcast or DISH. AT&T, which had acquired national satellite operator DirecTV, could threaten “blackouts” depriving rival distributors of key programs—their subscribers would then quit and flock to DirecTV (AT&T) so as to keep watching CNN or the NBA Playoffs on TNT. Not only would major TV and cable systems be hurt, but emerging online streaming services would be crushed.\nThe government’s case focused on “vertical leveraging,” where a company uses two complementary products to make it more difficult for rivals to compete in the individual markets. Here, AT&T was combining video content creation with video program distribution; the allegation was that competitors in either segment might be hurt. Yet there are clear efficiencies to be had, as widely found in studies of vertically integrated firms, with joint operations boosting consumer happiness. Buyers at Costco eagerly snap up Costco-supplied Kirkland products—which the retailer stocks in place of those of some independent producers—if they improve price or quality. So facts, not just a story, are needed.  District Court Judge Richard J. Leonfoundthat the DOJ case “falls far short of establishing the validity of its… theory.”\nAside from the political overtones of the case, there was good historical reason to doubt the official complaint. A cable TV programmer combined with (or split from) a video distributor several times in recent years. Vertical integration did not cause higher prices, as shown by econometric analysis. Nor did vertical integration lead to “blackouts,” as the DOJ conceded. A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit confirmed Judge Leon’s opinion, finding that “the industry had become dynamic in recent years with the emergence, for example, of Netflix and Hulu.”\nOwning DirecTV and Time Warner together turned out to be not much advantage, let alone a monopoly. Despite a huge boost in pandemic demand for video content, rivals soon dined on AT&T-Time Warner’s lunch. When AT&T bought DirecTV in 2015, it paid $67 billion. In February 2021, with DirecTV’s satellite subscriber base collapsing, the spun-off operation wasvaluedat $16.3 billion.\nAnd AT&Tthen unloaded the video assets of Time Warner. A new enterprise—Warner Bros. Discovery—is being spun off and merged with Discovery (Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, TLC, HGTV, the Food Networkand more). The content-only firm voluntarily severs the link the DOJ critiqued as easy monopoly money. With the allegations of anticompetitive bundling, it has been cast off as not worth the trouble.AT&T shareholders receive $43 billion, less than half the $100 billion AT&T expended (in debt and equity) for Time Warner three years ago. The government’s scenario of anti-competitive vertical integration proved a fantasy.\nAT&T’s maneuvers deserve whatever scorn billions in shareholder losses can buy. A cynic might offer that antitrust laws be beefed up to protect against such corporate errors, ignoring that economic penalties—more reliable and harsher than whatever antitrust enforcers might deal—are visibly in place. But little note has been made of the ironic political saga. Policymakers are moving full throttle to enact statutes to beef up antitrust prosecution in tech for exactly what AT&T so spectacularly failed to do in video.  Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) introduced the “Ending Monopoly Platforms Act” that would restrict vertical mergers in online services, for example. At least five other bills for new antitrust rules have been introduced.\nNot only can such policies be expensive legal diversions, they can block the innovations igniting exciting new choices for customers. Netflix has integrated from streaming into movie production, after launching Roku. Hulu was created by News Corp. (Fox) and NBC-Universal (Comcast). Amazon Prime Video, Sling, YouTube TV, Apple TV, Disney Plus, HBO Max and Paramount Plus—each has extended a large media or e-commerce platform. Each evolved from a quest for better products. Treating entrepreneurship as suspect puts the screws to just the disruptions now roiling online entertainment markets. AT&T learned the hard way that owning complementary products is no guarantee of success.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802860554,"gmtCreate":1627753043178,"gmtModify":1631891858419,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802860554","repostId":"1147779023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147779023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627716124,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147779023?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You can beat stock market indexes — this fund manager has, and this is how she and her team did it<blockquote>你可以击败股票市场指数——这位基金经理做到了，这就是她和她的团队做到的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147779023","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Five key lessons on outperformance from Prabha Ram at the American Century Focused Dynamic Growth Fu","content":"<p>  <b>Five key lessons on outperformance from Prabha Ram at the American Century Focused Dynamic Growth Fund.</b>  Investing is a tough game. That’s why so many mutual funds lag behind their indices.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国世纪聚焦动态增长基金的Prabha Ram关于优异表现的五个关键教训。</b>投资是一场艰难的游戏。这就是为什么这么多共同基金落后于指数的原因。</blockquote></p><p> So when you find a fund with a great record, it pays to investigate what the fund managers are doing — to learn some lessons.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当你发现一只记录良好的基金时，调查基金经理在做什么是值得的——吸取一些教训。</blockquote></p><p> The American Century Focused Dynamic Growth FundACFSXfits the bill. The $2.8 billion fund beats its Russell 1000 Growth&nbsp;Index by over 6 percentage points annualized over the past three and five years, according toMorningstar. It outperforms its large-growth category by 8.6 percentage points annualized over five years. It has a reasonable 0.65% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>美国世纪聚焦动态增长基金CFSX符合要求。据 toMorningstar 称，这只 28 亿美元的基金在过去三年和五年中的年化表现超过了罗素 1000 增长指数 6 个百分点以上。五年来，它的年化表现优于高增长类别 8.6 个百分点。它有一个合理的0.65%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p> The fund is co-managed by Prabha Ram, who I recently caught up with. Raised in India, Ram came to the U.S. as a teaching assistant at the University of Maine, where she earned a master’s degree in computer science. She went on to receive an MBA at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Ram and three other portfolio managers have led this fund since 2016.</p><p><blockquote>该基金由 Prabha Ram 共同管理，我最近采访了他。拉姆在印度长大，后来来到美国，在缅因大学担任助教，并获得了计算机科学硕士学位。她随后在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院获得了工商管理硕士学位。拉姆和其他三位投资组合经理自 2016 年以来一直领导该基金。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the five key takeaways, with examples of specific stocks.</p><p><blockquote>以下是五个关键要点，并附有具体股票的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Own companies that can “land and expand” in big markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 拥有能够在大市场“落地并扩张”的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though we’ve been in the digital age for years, many small companies still do much of their business on paper. Bill.comBILLwants to change that. The company was founded by CEO René Lacerte, who in the late 1990s started the online payroll company PayCycle, which was acquired by Intuit.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经进入数字时代多年，但许多小公司的大部分业务仍然停留在纸面上。Bill.comBill想改变这一点。该公司由首席执行官 René Lacerte 创立，他于 20 世纪 90 年代末创办了在线薪资公司 PayCycle，后来被 Intuit 收购。</blockquote></p><p> Bill.com helps small companies go digital in accounts payable and receivable payments. But that’s just the start. Once inside a company, Bill.com digitizes other areas like cash and expense account management.</p><p><blockquote>Bill.com 帮助小型企业在应付账款和应收账款方面实现数字化。但这仅仅是开始。一旦进入公司，Bill.com 就会将现金和费用账户管理等其他领域数字化。</blockquote></p><p> Bill.com “lands and expands” at clients, but it also uses their business partners to create a network of leads.</p><p><blockquote>Bill.com 在客户身上 “落地并扩张 ”，但它也利用客户的商业伙伴来建立潜在客户网络。</blockquote></p><p> “Every vendor is a network member, even if it is not a Bill.com customer,” says Ram. This network has about 2.5 million members. Bill.com also gets prospects from its partners, including Bank of AmericaBAC,JPMorgan ChaseJPMand American ExpressAXP.Sales grew 45% in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“拉姆说：”每个供应商都是网络成员，即使它不是 Bill.com 的客户。这个网络有大约250万成员。Bill.com 还从其合作伙伴那里获得了潜在客户，包括美国银行 BAC、摩根大通 JPM 和美国运通 XP。第一季度销售额增长了 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Founder-run companies such as this one are worth considering because they often outperform.</p><p><blockquote>像这样的创始人经营的公司值得考虑，因为它们通常跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seek out innovators</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 寻找创新者</b></blockquote></p><p> Ram’s portfolio contains obvious innovators, including TeslaTSLA,Amazon.comAMZNand AlphabetGOOGL,her top three positions. Let’s look beyond technology — to beer.</p><p><blockquote>拉姆的投资组合中包括明显的创新者，包括特斯拉斯拉、亚马逊、Amazon.comAMZNand 和 AlphabetGOOGL，她的前三名。让我们超越技术--啤酒。</blockquote></p><p> Back in the 1980s, Boston Beer founder Jim Koch began taking share from beer giants Anheuser-Busch InBevBUDand HeinekenHEINYby rolling out successful “craft” brews, starting with Samuel Adams. Koch helped invent the craft brew category, essentially taking the country back to pre-Prohibition days when the U.S. had hundreds of regional breweries making more flavorful beers for local tastes.</p><p><blockquote>早在 20 世纪 80 年代，波士顿啤酒创始人吉姆-科赫（Jim Koch）就开始从啤酒巨头百威英博（Anheuser-Busch）和喜力喜力（Heinekenheiny）手中分一杯羹，推出了成功的 “手工 ”啤酒，从塞缪尔-亚当斯（Samuel Adams）开始。科赫帮助发明了精酿啤酒类别，本质上将美国带回了禁酒令前的时代，当时美国有数百家地区啤酒厂为当地口味酿造更美味的啤酒。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Beer stock did very well, but then it stalled during 2015-2017 as beer sales overall went flat. In response, Boston Beer helped put a new category on the map — with its Truly Hard Seltzer brand rolled out in 2106. It remains one of the leading hard seltzers.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿啤酒股票表现非常好，但随后在 2015 年至 2017 年期间由于啤酒销售总体持平而停滞不前。作为回应，波士顿啤酒帮助推出了一个新的类别——其真正的硬苏打水品牌于2106年推出。它仍然是领先的硬苏打水之一。</blockquote></p><p> “We were drawn to the company because of its history of innovation,” says Ram, referring to her fund’s early position from the second quarter of 2016. “The stock was doing poorly because the beer market was flattening, but they were coming up with Truly Hard Seltzer. Truly was more successful than we anticipated. It created a new category.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们之所以被该公司吸引，是因为它的创新历史，”拉姆说，他指的是她的基金从 2016 年第二季度开始的早期仓位。“由于啤酒市场趋于平稳，股票表现不佳，但他们推出了真正的硬苏打水。Truly 比我们预期的要成功。它创造了一个新的品类”。</blockquote></p><p> This penchant for innovation at Boston Beer has helped keep Ram’s fund in the name. Other successful Boston Beer brands include Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿啤酒的这种创新倾向帮助拉姆的基金保持了名字。其他成功的波士顿啤酒品牌包括扭曲茶、愤怒果园和狗鱼头。</blockquote></p><p> A key takeaway here is that to find innovative companies, look for the ones led by people who have demonstrated a knack for innovation in the past. Innovative managers tend to keep on innovating. Boston Beer continually tests new seltzers, beers, hard ciders, distilled spirits and other drinks. Shareholders are betting they will come through again.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个关键要点是，要寻找创新公司，要寻找那些由过去展示过创新技巧的人领导的公司。创新的管理者倾向于不断创新。波士顿啤酒不断测试新的苏打水、啤酒、烈性苹果酒、蒸馏酒和其他饮料。股东们打赌他们会再次渡过难关。</blockquote></p><p> They’ll need the help. Boston Beer shares fell 20% on July 23 because so many competitors entered the hard cider niche. Sales grew 33% but net income fell 1.6% as the company jacked up advertising costs to try to combat the competition. The company slashed estimates for the year on an expected slowdown in sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>他们需要帮助。7 月 23 日，波士顿啤酒股价下跌 20%，因为太多竞争对手进入了烈性苹果酒市场。由于该公司提高广告成本以应对竞争，销售额增长了 33%，但净利润下降了 1.6%。由于预计销售增长放缓，该公司下调了今年的预期。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t count out this innovator yet.</p><p><blockquote>但先别排除这位创新者。</blockquote></p><p> “We recently announced plans to develop new innovative beverages with&nbsp;Beam Suntory&nbsp;that we are planning to launch in early 2022,” Boston Beer’s Koch said. Beam Suntory&nbsp;sells Jim Beam whiskey and other brands of spirits. “We believe these new beverages will further demonstrate our ability to innovate and grow our business as drinker preferences evolve.”</p><p><blockquote>“波士顿啤酒公司的科赫说：”我们最近宣布了与 Beam Suntory 合作开发新型创新饮料的计划，并计划于 2022 年初推出。梁三得利出售吉姆梁威士忌和其他品牌的烈酒。“我们相信，随着饮酒者喜好的演变，这些新饮料将进一步展示我们创新和发展业务的能力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Look for companies that can create and dominate a niche</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 寻找能够创造并主导利基市场的公司</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For years as the gig economy emerged, the big credit card companies didn’t really care that much if the local yoga instructor could accept payments with a credit card. SquareSQrecognized this as an opportunity. So it launched its card payment device business in 2009. Since then, it has grown by taking on larger customers, and expanding into new lines of business in financial services such as cash management, debit cards loans and tax filing. Transaction-based revenue grew 27% in the first quarter, and subscription and services revenue soared 88%.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，随着零工经济的出现，大型信用卡公司并不太在意当地的瑜伽教练是否可以接受信用卡付款。Squaresq认为这是一个机会。于是它在2009年推出了卡支付设备业务。从那时起，它通过接受更大的客户，并扩展到现金管理、借记卡贷款和报税等金融服务的新业务领域而发展壮大。第一季度基于交易的收入增长了 27%，订阅和服务收入飙升了 88%。</blockquote></p><p> This is a great example of a company that created a business niche. But it’s also a “land and expand” company because it grows by offering customers new services. Both qualities help companies maintain the competitive advantage Ram likes see in investments.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的例子，说明一家公司创造了一个利基市场。但它也是一家 “土地和扩张 ”的公司，因为它通过为客户提供新服务而发展壮大。这两种品质都有助于公司保持 Ram 喜欢在投资中看到的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Buy companies in the early stages of rapid growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4、买入处于快速增长初期的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to find these is to identify companies developing products that will transform an entire industry. Ram thinks that is the case with Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY.It’s developing novel therapies base on a technique called RNA interference (RNAi). Inside the body, messenger RNA (mRNA) encodes proteins we need, based on signals from RNA. Sometimes mRNA gets the signals crossed, and it encodes flawed proteins. This causes diseases.</p><p><blockquote>找到这些的一个方法是确定开发将改变整个行业的产品的公司。Ram 认为 Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY 就是这种情况。它正在开发一种名为 RNA 干扰（RNAi）的新疗法。在体内，信使RNA（mRNA）根据RNA的信号编码我们需要的蛋白质。有时mRNA会交叉信号，编码有缺陷的蛋白质。这会导致疾病。</blockquote></p><p> Alnylam has developed a way to tweak the RNAi pathway to silence the flawed signaling and block the creation of disease-causing proteins. So far, Alnylam has four approved RNAi-based medicines that treat rare hereditary diseases. The company has a dozen other therapies in clinical studies, including six in late-stage development.</p><p><blockquote>Alnylam开发了一种调整RNAi途径的方法，以沉默有缺陷的信号并阻止致病蛋白质的产生。到目前为止，Alnylam已经有四种治疗罕见遗传性疾病的基于RNAi的药物获得批准。该公司还有十几种其他疗法正在进行临床研究，其中六种处于后期开发阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a completely new area of therapeutics,” says Ram. “It is a platform of products that can treat a variety of conditions.”</p><p><blockquote>“拉姆说：”这是一个全新的治疗领域。“这是一个可以治疗多种疾病的产品平台”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Hold stocks for the long term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.长期持有股票</b></blockquote></p><p> All of the names above are large positions in Ram’s fund, which tells me that Ram and her team think they have considerably more upside. If you buy any of them, though, remember you have to do so with a multi-year time horizon. That’s what Ram’s fund does. It has a low annual portfolio turnover of 27%. It’s important to have a long-term view, because it is so tough to call short-term moves in the stock market or in stocks, and you need to give companies time to develop.</p><p><blockquote>以上所有名字都是拉姆基金的重仓股，这告诉我拉姆和她的团队认为他们的上涨空间要大得多。不过，如果您购买其中任何一种，请记住您必须在多年的时间范围内购买。拉姆基金就是这么做的。它的年投资组合周转率很低，仅为 27%。重要的是要有长远的眼光，因为很难看涨期权股市或股票的短期走势，你需要给公司发展的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You can beat stock market indexes — this fund manager has, and this is how she and her team did it<blockquote>你可以击败股票市场指数——这位基金经理做到了，这就是她和她的团队做到的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou can beat stock market indexes — this fund manager has, and this is how she and her team did it<blockquote>你可以击败股票市场指数——这位基金经理做到了，这就是她和她的团队做到的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Five key lessons on outperformance from Prabha Ram at the American Century Focused Dynamic Growth Fund.</b>  Investing is a tough game. That’s why so many mutual funds lag behind their indices.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国世纪聚焦动态增长基金的Prabha Ram关于优异表现的五个关键教训。</b>投资是一场艰难的游戏。这就是为什么这么多共同基金落后于指数的原因。</blockquote></p><p> So when you find a fund with a great record, it pays to investigate what the fund managers are doing — to learn some lessons.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当你发现一只记录良好的基金时，调查基金经理在做什么是值得的——吸取一些教训。</blockquote></p><p> The American Century Focused Dynamic Growth FundACFSXfits the bill. The $2.8 billion fund beats its Russell 1000 Growth&nbsp;Index by over 6 percentage points annualized over the past three and five years, according toMorningstar. It outperforms its large-growth category by 8.6 percentage points annualized over five years. It has a reasonable 0.65% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>美国世纪聚焦动态增长基金CFSX符合要求。据 toMorningstar 称，这只 28 亿美元的基金在过去三年和五年中的年化表现超过了罗素 1000 增长指数 6 个百分点以上。五年来，它的年化表现优于高增长类别 8.6 个百分点。它有一个合理的0.65%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p> The fund is co-managed by Prabha Ram, who I recently caught up with. Raised in India, Ram came to the U.S. as a teaching assistant at the University of Maine, where she earned a master’s degree in computer science. She went on to receive an MBA at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Ram and three other portfolio managers have led this fund since 2016.</p><p><blockquote>该基金由 Prabha Ram 共同管理，我最近采访了他。拉姆在印度长大，后来来到美国，在缅因大学担任助教，并获得了计算机科学硕士学位。她随后在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院获得了工商管理硕士学位。拉姆和其他三位投资组合经理自 2016 年以来一直领导该基金。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the five key takeaways, with examples of specific stocks.</p><p><blockquote>以下是五个关键要点，并附有具体股票的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Own companies that can “land and expand” in big markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 拥有能够在大市场“落地并扩张”的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though we’ve been in the digital age for years, many small companies still do much of their business on paper. Bill.comBILLwants to change that. The company was founded by CEO René Lacerte, who in the late 1990s started the online payroll company PayCycle, which was acquired by Intuit.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经进入数字时代多年，但许多小公司的大部分业务仍然停留在纸面上。Bill.comBill想改变这一点。该公司由首席执行官 René Lacerte 创立，他于 20 世纪 90 年代末创办了在线薪资公司 PayCycle，后来被 Intuit 收购。</blockquote></p><p> Bill.com helps small companies go digital in accounts payable and receivable payments. But that’s just the start. Once inside a company, Bill.com digitizes other areas like cash and expense account management.</p><p><blockquote>Bill.com 帮助小型企业在应付账款和应收账款方面实现数字化。但这仅仅是开始。一旦进入公司，Bill.com 就会将现金和费用账户管理等其他领域数字化。</blockquote></p><p> Bill.com “lands and expands” at clients, but it also uses their business partners to create a network of leads.</p><p><blockquote>Bill.com 在客户身上 “落地并扩张 ”，但它也利用客户的商业伙伴来建立潜在客户网络。</blockquote></p><p> “Every vendor is a network member, even if it is not a Bill.com customer,” says Ram. This network has about 2.5 million members. Bill.com also gets prospects from its partners, including Bank of AmericaBAC,JPMorgan ChaseJPMand American ExpressAXP.Sales grew 45% in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“拉姆说：”每个供应商都是网络成员，即使它不是 Bill.com 的客户。这个网络有大约250万成员。Bill.com 还从其合作伙伴那里获得了潜在客户，包括美国银行 BAC、摩根大通 JPM 和美国运通 XP。第一季度销售额增长了 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Founder-run companies such as this one are worth considering because they often outperform.</p><p><blockquote>像这样的创始人经营的公司值得考虑，因为它们通常跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seek out innovators</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 寻找创新者</b></blockquote></p><p> Ram’s portfolio contains obvious innovators, including TeslaTSLA,Amazon.comAMZNand AlphabetGOOGL,her top three positions. Let’s look beyond technology — to beer.</p><p><blockquote>拉姆的投资组合中包括明显的创新者，包括特斯拉斯拉、亚马逊、Amazon.comAMZNand 和 AlphabetGOOGL，她的前三名。让我们超越技术--啤酒。</blockquote></p><p> Back in the 1980s, Boston Beer founder Jim Koch began taking share from beer giants Anheuser-Busch InBevBUDand HeinekenHEINYby rolling out successful “craft” brews, starting with Samuel Adams. Koch helped invent the craft brew category, essentially taking the country back to pre-Prohibition days when the U.S. had hundreds of regional breweries making more flavorful beers for local tastes.</p><p><blockquote>早在 20 世纪 80 年代，波士顿啤酒创始人吉姆-科赫（Jim Koch）就开始从啤酒巨头百威英博（Anheuser-Busch）和喜力喜力（Heinekenheiny）手中分一杯羹，推出了成功的 “手工 ”啤酒，从塞缪尔-亚当斯（Samuel Adams）开始。科赫帮助发明了精酿啤酒类别，本质上将美国带回了禁酒令前的时代，当时美国有数百家地区啤酒厂为当地口味酿造更美味的啤酒。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Beer stock did very well, but then it stalled during 2015-2017 as beer sales overall went flat. In response, Boston Beer helped put a new category on the map — with its Truly Hard Seltzer brand rolled out in 2106. It remains one of the leading hard seltzers.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿啤酒股票表现非常好，但随后在 2015 年至 2017 年期间由于啤酒销售总体持平而停滞不前。作为回应，波士顿啤酒帮助推出了一个新的类别——其真正的硬苏打水品牌于2106年推出。它仍然是领先的硬苏打水之一。</blockquote></p><p> “We were drawn to the company because of its history of innovation,” says Ram, referring to her fund’s early position from the second quarter of 2016. “The stock was doing poorly because the beer market was flattening, but they were coming up with Truly Hard Seltzer. Truly was more successful than we anticipated. It created a new category.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们之所以被该公司吸引，是因为它的创新历史，”拉姆说，他指的是她的基金从 2016 年第二季度开始的早期仓位。“由于啤酒市场趋于平稳，股票表现不佳，但他们推出了真正的硬苏打水。Truly 比我们预期的要成功。它创造了一个新的品类”。</blockquote></p><p> This penchant for innovation at Boston Beer has helped keep Ram’s fund in the name. Other successful Boston Beer brands include Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿啤酒的这种创新倾向帮助拉姆的基金保持了名字。其他成功的波士顿啤酒品牌包括扭曲茶、愤怒果园和狗鱼头。</blockquote></p><p> A key takeaway here is that to find innovative companies, look for the ones led by people who have demonstrated a knack for innovation in the past. Innovative managers tend to keep on innovating. Boston Beer continually tests new seltzers, beers, hard ciders, distilled spirits and other drinks. Shareholders are betting they will come through again.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个关键要点是，要寻找创新公司，要寻找那些由过去展示过创新技巧的人领导的公司。创新的管理者倾向于不断创新。波士顿啤酒不断测试新的苏打水、啤酒、烈性苹果酒、蒸馏酒和其他饮料。股东们打赌他们会再次渡过难关。</blockquote></p><p> They’ll need the help. Boston Beer shares fell 20% on July 23 because so many competitors entered the hard cider niche. Sales grew 33% but net income fell 1.6% as the company jacked up advertising costs to try to combat the competition. The company slashed estimates for the year on an expected slowdown in sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>他们需要帮助。7 月 23 日，波士顿啤酒股价下跌 20%，因为太多竞争对手进入了烈性苹果酒市场。由于该公司提高广告成本以应对竞争，销售额增长了 33%，但净利润下降了 1.6%。由于预计销售增长放缓，该公司下调了今年的预期。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t count out this innovator yet.</p><p><blockquote>但先别排除这位创新者。</blockquote></p><p> “We recently announced plans to develop new innovative beverages with&nbsp;Beam Suntory&nbsp;that we are planning to launch in early 2022,” Boston Beer’s Koch said. Beam Suntory&nbsp;sells Jim Beam whiskey and other brands of spirits. “We believe these new beverages will further demonstrate our ability to innovate and grow our business as drinker preferences evolve.”</p><p><blockquote>“波士顿啤酒公司的科赫说：”我们最近宣布了与 Beam Suntory 合作开发新型创新饮料的计划，并计划于 2022 年初推出。梁三得利出售吉姆梁威士忌和其他品牌的烈酒。“我们相信，随着饮酒者喜好的演变，这些新饮料将进一步展示我们创新和发展业务的能力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Look for companies that can create and dominate a niche</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 寻找能够创造并主导利基市场的公司</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For years as the gig economy emerged, the big credit card companies didn’t really care that much if the local yoga instructor could accept payments with a credit card. SquareSQrecognized this as an opportunity. So it launched its card payment device business in 2009. Since then, it has grown by taking on larger customers, and expanding into new lines of business in financial services such as cash management, debit cards loans and tax filing. Transaction-based revenue grew 27% in the first quarter, and subscription and services revenue soared 88%.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，随着零工经济的出现，大型信用卡公司并不太在意当地的瑜伽教练是否可以接受信用卡付款。Squaresq认为这是一个机会。于是它在2009年推出了卡支付设备业务。从那时起，它通过接受更大的客户，并扩展到现金管理、借记卡贷款和报税等金融服务的新业务领域而发展壮大。第一季度基于交易的收入增长了 27%，订阅和服务收入飙升了 88%。</blockquote></p><p> This is a great example of a company that created a business niche. But it’s also a “land and expand” company because it grows by offering customers new services. Both qualities help companies maintain the competitive advantage Ram likes see in investments.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的例子，说明一家公司创造了一个利基市场。但它也是一家 “土地和扩张 ”的公司，因为它通过为客户提供新服务而发展壮大。这两种品质都有助于公司保持 Ram 喜欢在投资中看到的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Buy companies in the early stages of rapid growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4、买入处于快速增长初期的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to find these is to identify companies developing products that will transform an entire industry. Ram thinks that is the case with Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY.It’s developing novel therapies base on a technique called RNA interference (RNAi). Inside the body, messenger RNA (mRNA) encodes proteins we need, based on signals from RNA. Sometimes mRNA gets the signals crossed, and it encodes flawed proteins. This causes diseases.</p><p><blockquote>找到这些的一个方法是确定开发将改变整个行业的产品的公司。Ram 认为 Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY 就是这种情况。它正在开发一种名为 RNA 干扰（RNAi）的新疗法。在体内，信使RNA（mRNA）根据RNA的信号编码我们需要的蛋白质。有时mRNA会交叉信号，编码有缺陷的蛋白质。这会导致疾病。</blockquote></p><p> Alnylam has developed a way to tweak the RNAi pathway to silence the flawed signaling and block the creation of disease-causing proteins. So far, Alnylam has four approved RNAi-based medicines that treat rare hereditary diseases. The company has a dozen other therapies in clinical studies, including six in late-stage development.</p><p><blockquote>Alnylam开发了一种调整RNAi途径的方法，以沉默有缺陷的信号并阻止致病蛋白质的产生。到目前为止，Alnylam已经有四种治疗罕见遗传性疾病的基于RNAi的药物获得批准。该公司还有十几种其他疗法正在进行临床研究，其中六种处于后期开发阶段。</blockquote></p><p> “This is a completely new area of therapeutics,” says Ram. “It is a platform of products that can treat a variety of conditions.”</p><p><blockquote>“拉姆说：”这是一个全新的治疗领域。“这是一个可以治疗多种疾病的产品平台”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Hold stocks for the long term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.长期持有股票</b></blockquote></p><p> All of the names above are large positions in Ram’s fund, which tells me that Ram and her team think they have considerably more upside. If you buy any of them, though, remember you have to do so with a multi-year time horizon. That’s what Ram’s fund does. It has a low annual portfolio turnover of 27%. It’s important to have a long-term view, because it is so tough to call short-term moves in the stock market or in stocks, and you need to give companies time to develop.</p><p><blockquote>以上所有名字都是拉姆基金的重仓股，这告诉我拉姆和她的团队认为他们的上涨空间要大得多。不过，如果您购买其中任何一种，请记住您必须在多年的时间范围内购买。拉姆基金就是这么做的。它的年投资组合周转率很低，仅为 27%。重要的是要有长远的眼光，因为很难看涨期权股市或股票的短期走势，你需要给公司发展的时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-beat-stock-market-indexes-this-fund-manager-has-and-this-is-how-she-and-her-team-did-it-11627481445?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-beat-stock-market-indexes-this-fund-manager-has-and-this-is-how-she-and-her-team-did-it-11627481445?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147779023","content_text":"Five key lessons on outperformance from Prabha Ram at the American Century Focused Dynamic Growth Fund.\n\nInvesting is a tough game. That’s why so many mutual funds lag behind their indices.\nSo when you find a fund with a great record, it pays to investigate what the fund managers are doing — to learn some lessons.\nThe American Century Focused Dynamic Growth FundACFSXfits the bill. The $2.8 billion fund beats its Russell 1000 Growth Index by over 6 percentage points annualized over the past three and five years, according toMorningstar. It outperforms its large-growth category by 8.6 percentage points annualized over five years. It has a reasonable 0.65% expense ratio.\nThe fund is co-managed by Prabha Ram, who I recently caught up with. Raised in India, Ram came to the U.S. as a teaching assistant at the University of Maine, where she earned a master’s degree in computer science. She went on to receive an MBA at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Ram and three other portfolio managers have led this fund since 2016.\nHere are the five key takeaways, with examples of specific stocks.\n1. Own companies that can “land and expand” in big markets\nEven though we’ve been in the digital age for years, many small companies still do much of their business on paper. Bill.comBILLwants to change that. The company was founded by CEO René Lacerte, who in the late 1990s started the online payroll company PayCycle, which was acquired by Intuit.\nBill.com helps small companies go digital in accounts payable and receivable payments. But that’s just the start. Once inside a company, Bill.com digitizes other areas like cash and expense account management.\nBill.com “lands and expands” at clients, but it also uses their business partners to create a network of leads.\n“Every vendor is a network member, even if it is not a Bill.com customer,” says Ram. This network has about 2.5 million members. Bill.com also gets prospects from its partners, including Bank of AmericaBAC,JPMorgan ChaseJPMand American ExpressAXP.Sales grew 45% in the first quarter.\nFounder-run companies such as this one are worth considering because they often outperform.\n2. Seek out innovators\nRam’s portfolio contains obvious innovators, including TeslaTSLA,Amazon.comAMZNand AlphabetGOOGL,her top three positions. Let’s look beyond technology — to beer.\nBack in the 1980s, Boston Beer founder Jim Koch began taking share from beer giants Anheuser-Busch InBevBUDand HeinekenHEINYby rolling out successful “craft” brews, starting with Samuel Adams. Koch helped invent the craft brew category, essentially taking the country back to pre-Prohibition days when the U.S. had hundreds of regional breweries making more flavorful beers for local tastes.\nBoston Beer stock did very well, but then it stalled during 2015-2017 as beer sales overall went flat. In response, Boston Beer helped put a new category on the map — with its Truly Hard Seltzer brand rolled out in 2106. It remains one of the leading hard seltzers.\n“We were drawn to the company because of its history of innovation,” says Ram, referring to her fund’s early position from the second quarter of 2016. “The stock was doing poorly because the beer market was flattening, but they were coming up with Truly Hard Seltzer. Truly was more successful than we anticipated. It created a new category.”\nThis penchant for innovation at Boston Beer has helped keep Ram’s fund in the name. Other successful Boston Beer brands include Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head.\nA key takeaway here is that to find innovative companies, look for the ones led by people who have demonstrated a knack for innovation in the past. Innovative managers tend to keep on innovating. Boston Beer continually tests new seltzers, beers, hard ciders, distilled spirits and other drinks. Shareholders are betting they will come through again.\nThey’ll need the help. Boston Beer shares fell 20% on July 23 because so many competitors entered the hard cider niche. Sales grew 33% but net income fell 1.6% as the company jacked up advertising costs to try to combat the competition. The company slashed estimates for the year on an expected slowdown in sales growth.\nBut don’t count out this innovator yet.\n“We recently announced plans to develop new innovative beverages with Beam Suntory that we are planning to launch in early 2022,” Boston Beer’s Koch said. Beam Suntory sells Jim Beam whiskey and other brands of spirits. “We believe these new beverages will further demonstrate our ability to innovate and grow our business as drinker preferences evolve.”\n3. Look for companies that can create and dominate a niche\nFor years as the gig economy emerged, the big credit card companies didn’t really care that much if the local yoga instructor could accept payments with a credit card. SquareSQrecognized this as an opportunity. So it launched its card payment device business in 2009. Since then, it has grown by taking on larger customers, and expanding into new lines of business in financial services such as cash management, debit cards loans and tax filing. Transaction-based revenue grew 27% in the first quarter, and subscription and services revenue soared 88%.\nThis is a great example of a company that created a business niche. But it’s also a “land and expand” company because it grows by offering customers new services. Both qualities help companies maintain the competitive advantage Ram likes see in investments.\n4. Buy companies in the early stages of rapid growth\nOne way to find these is to identify companies developing products that will transform an entire industry. Ram thinks that is the case with Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY.It’s developing novel therapies base on a technique called RNA interference (RNAi). Inside the body, messenger RNA (mRNA) encodes proteins we need, based on signals from RNA. Sometimes mRNA gets the signals crossed, and it encodes flawed proteins. This causes diseases.\nAlnylam has developed a way to tweak the RNAi pathway to silence the flawed signaling and block the creation of disease-causing proteins. So far, Alnylam has four approved RNAi-based medicines that treat rare hereditary diseases. The company has a dozen other therapies in clinical studies, including six in late-stage development.\n“This is a completely new area of therapeutics,” says Ram. “It is a platform of products that can treat a variety of conditions.”\n5. Hold stocks for the long term\nAll of the names above are large positions in Ram’s fund, which tells me that Ram and her team think they have considerably more upside. If you buy any of them, though, remember you have to do so with a multi-year time horizon. That’s what Ram’s fund does. It has a low annual portfolio turnover of 27%. It’s important to have a long-term view, because it is so tough to call short-term moves in the stock market or in stocks, and you need to give companies time to develop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806578344,"gmtCreate":1627685792888,"gmtModify":1631891858430,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806578344","repostId":"2155715865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806571727,"gmtCreate":1627685719669,"gmtModify":1631891858441,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806571727","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198838390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806561536,"gmtCreate":1627679665325,"gmtModify":1631883895717,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi every one grad day&nbsp;","listText":"Hi every one grad day&nbsp;","text":"Hi every one grad day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806561536","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198838390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808202151,"gmtCreate":1627581883273,"gmtModify":1631891858451,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808202151","repostId":"2155090430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808206473,"gmtCreate":1627581832692,"gmtModify":1631891858464,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808206473","repostId":"1165345369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":174214014,"gmtCreate":1627100995138,"gmtModify":1633767941087,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174214014","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178383844,"gmtCreate":1626788324188,"gmtModify":1633771043250,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi everyone&nbsp;","listText":"Hi everyone&nbsp;","text":"Hi everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178383844","repostId":"1193549178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193549178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626784018,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193549178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMD Stock Is Headed for $100<blockquote>为什么 AMD 股票将达到 100 美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193549178","media":"The Street","summary":"AMD shares could be headed for $100 based on the company's expected strong sales growth, taking mark","content":"<p>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> shares could be headed for $100 based on the company's expected strong sales growth, taking market share away from Intel and a potential acquisition.  During periods of market volatility and deteriorating breadth like we have witnessed over the past few trading sessions, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye out for buying opportunities in the strongest stocks.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>根据该公司预计的强劲销售增长，股价可能会达到 100 美元，从而从英特尔手中夺走市场份额并进行潜在收购。在市场波动和广度恶化的时期，就像我们在过去几个交易日所看到的那样，密切关注最强劲股票的买入机会总是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Getting too caught up in the ebbs and flows of the indices tends to distract investors from their overall goal - generating long-term alpha by identifying businesses with innovative products and services.</p><p><blockquote>过于关注指数的起伏往往会分散投资者对其总体目标的注意力——通过识别具有创新产品和服务的企业来产生长期阿尔法。</blockquote></p><p> For example, semiconductor stocks are a great place to look for buying opportunities on market weakness given all of the secular growth drivers that are creating opportunities for the best companies in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>例如，考虑到所有长期增长动力都在为业内最好的公司创造机会，半导体股票是在市场疲软时寻找买入机会的好地方。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices&nbsp;(<b>AMD</b>)&nbsp;is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> chip stock that really stands out, as there are plenty of catalysts specific to its business that couldhelp the stock rallyin the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>先进微器件（<b>AMD</b>）是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>真正脱颖而出的芯片股，因为其业务有很多特定的催化剂可以帮助该股在未来几个月反弹。</blockquote></p><p> With substantial demand for AMD’s computer chips expected to deliver strong annual sales growth this year, a fantastic opportunity to take market share away from a rival, and a potentially groundbreaking acquisition on the horizon, there’s a good chance this stock is headed for $100 a share sooner than the current market action would lead you to believe.</p><p><blockquote>预计今年对 AMD 电脑芯片的巨大需求将带来强劲的年销售额增长，这是一个从竞争对手手中夺取市场份额的绝佳机会，而且一项潜在的突破性收购即将到来，因此该股很有可能比目前的市场走势更早达到每股 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a deeper look at why AMD stock could be on its way toward passing the century mark in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>让我们深入了解一下为什么 AMD 的股价会在未来几个月内突破世纪大关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Explosive Growth Across All Business Segments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所有业务板块均实现爆炸式增长</b></blockquote></p><p> When you consider all of the different forms of technology that rely on AMD’s high-powered chips, it’s easy to recognize the opportunity here.</p><p><blockquote>当你考虑到依赖 AMD 高性能芯片的所有不同形式的技术时，就很容易发现这里的机会。</blockquote></p><p> We live in an increasingly tech-centric world, which means that the need for devices such as computers, consumer electronics and data centers is increasing at an astounding pace.</p><p><blockquote>我们生活在一个日益以技术为中心的世界，这意味着对计算机、消费电子产品和数据中心等设备的需求正以惊人的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD designs the microprocessors that power these devices, and the company isexperiencing explosive growthacross all of its major business segments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 设计为这些设备提供动力的微处理器，目前该公司所有主要业务部门都经历了爆炸式增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s central processing units are essentially the brain of a computer and are seeing heavy demand thanks to data center growth and a red hot PC market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的中央处理器本质上是计算机的大脑，由于数据中心的增长和火热的个人电脑市场，该公司的中央处理器需求量很大。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s graphics processing units are used to increase the speed of rendering images and improve image resolution and color definition. With high growth end markets like video games and machine learning, this is another area of AMD’s business with clear upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的图形处理单元用于提高渲染图像的速度，提高图像分辨率和色彩清晰度。随着视频游戏和机器学习等高增长终端市场的出现，这是 AMD 业务中另一个具有明显上升空间的领域。</blockquote></p><p> For confirmation that this is a business firing on all cylinders, look no further than the company’s massive first-quarter earnings beat, as AMD’s revenue improved by 93% year over year to reach $3.45 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的收入同比增长 93%，达到 34.5 亿美元，因此该公司第一季度的巨额盈利增长就知道了。</blockquote></p><p> This top-line growth was driven by higher revenue in computing and graphics and enterprise, embedded and semi-custom segments, which tells us that the company’s Ryzen, Radeon and EPYC processors are flying off the shelves.</p><p><blockquote>这一营收增长是由计算和图形以及企业、嵌入式和半定制领域收入的增加推动的，这告诉我们，该公司的 Ryzen、Radeon 和 EPYC 处理器即将下架。</blockquote></p><p> Given that AMD boosted its forward guidance after the first quarter and now anticipates 50% annual sales growth vs. the previously anticipated 37%, the strong earnings momentum here should play a big part in helping the stock outperform going forward.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 AMD 在第一季度后提高了前瞻性指引，目前预计年销售额增长 50%，而之前预期为 37%，强劲的盈利势头应该会在帮助该股未来跑赢大盘方面发挥重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaining Market Share from Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>从英特尔获得市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> A few years back, it was hard to envision a scrappy chipmaker like AMD taking significant market share from a tech powerhouse like Intel(<b>INTC</b>).</p><p><blockquote>几年前，很难想象像 AMD 这样斗志昂扬的芯片制造商会从英特尔这样的科技巨头手中夺取大量市场份额（<b>国际电联</b>).</blockquote></p><p> However, thanks to a delay in the production of Intel’s newest generation of chips and incredibly strong data center sales in wake of the pandemic, AMD isgaining significant market sharefrom its competitor and should continue to do so going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于英特尔最新一代芯片的生产延迟，以及大流行病后数据中心销量异常强劲，AMD 正在从竞争对手手中夺取大量市场份额，并应继续保持这一势头。</blockquote></p><p> AMD competes with Intel to supply data center chips, which are in high demand across the cloud and enterprise markets with so many companies moving forward with their digital transformations.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 与英特尔竞争供应数据中心芯片，随着许多公司推进数字化转型，云和企业市场对数据中心芯片的需求量很大。</blockquote></p><p> The key difference between Intel and AMD here is that Intel handles the manufacturing of its chips in-house, while AMD operates with a fabless model.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔和AMD之间的关键区别在于，英特尔在内部处理芯片的制造，而AMD采用无晶圆厂模式。</blockquote></p><p> That means AMD relies on third-party foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing&nbsp;(<b>TSM</b>) to create its cutting-edge chips instead of handling the manufacturing itself.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着 AMD 依赖于台积电等第三方代工厂（<b>TSM</b>）来制造其尖端芯片，而不是处理制造本身。</blockquote></p><p> Intel’s chip manufacturing woes will last until early 2022, which provides AMD a nice window of opportunity to continue taking business away from Intel.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的芯片制造困境将持续到 2022 年初，这为 AMD 提供了一个继续从英特尔手中夺走业务的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth noting that in the first quarter, AMD’s data center revenue doubled while Intel’s data center revenue declined by 20%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，第一季度，AMD的数据中心收入翻了一番，而英特尔的数据中心收入则下降了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Any further evidence of this shift in market share after both companies report their second-quarter earnings in late July could be a strong catalyst for AMD stock.</p><p><blockquote>在两家公司于 7 月下旬公布第二季度收益后，市场份额变化的任何进一步证据都可能成为 AMD 股票的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Xilinx Acquisition a Potential Game-Changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赛灵思收购可能改变游戏规则</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> High-profile acquisitions can be hit or miss, but investors should certainly be intrigued byAMD’s move to acquire Xilinx&nbsp;(<b>XLNX</b>) , the leader in programmable logic chips that are used in data centers, machine learning, 5G, edge computing, and more.</p><p><blockquote>备受瞩目的收购可能会成功，也可能会失败，但投资者肯定会对 AMD 收购赛灵思的举动感兴趣（<b>XLNX</b>），是数据中心、机器学习、5G、边缘计算等领域使用的可编程逻辑芯片的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to close by the end of the year and could be just the catalyst the stock needs to get going.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将于今年年底完成，可能是该股上涨所需的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a lot to like about this strategic move, as it increases AMD’s total addressable market to $110 billion and won’t add a ton of debt to the company’s balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>这一战略举措有很多值得称道的地方，因为它将 AMD 的总目标市场增加到 1100 亿美元，而且不会给公司的资产负债表增加大量债务。</blockquote></p><p> The deal could be a game-changer for AMD, as it will allow for more growth in the cloud data center market and diversify the company’s revenue streams.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易可能会改变 AMD 的游戏规则，因为它将使云数据中心市场实现更多增长，并使公司的收入来源多样化。</blockquote></p><p> Although this deal still has to pass a few regulatory hurdles, it’s clear that AMD is currently generating a ton of cash and using it aggressively to develop a true industry-leading product portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这笔交易还需要通过一些监管障碍，但很明显，AMD 目前正在产生大量现金，并积极利用这些现金开发真正行业领先的产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD stock might drop in the short term amid market volatility, a dip to the 200-day moving average could end up being a great place to add shares for a move back to $100 later this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 股价可能会在短期内因市场波动而下跌，但跌至 200 天移动平均线最终可能成为今年晚些时候增持股票回升至 100 美元的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMD Stock Is Headed for $100<blockquote>为什么 AMD 股票将达到 100 美元</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMD Stock Is Headed for $100<blockquote>为什么 AMD 股票将达到 100 美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 20:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> shares could be headed for $100 based on the company's expected strong sales growth, taking market share away from Intel and a potential acquisition.  During periods of market volatility and deteriorating breadth like we have witnessed over the past few trading sessions, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye out for buying opportunities in the strongest stocks.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>根据该公司预计的强劲销售增长，股价可能会达到 100 美元，从而从英特尔手中夺走市场份额并进行潜在收购。在市场波动和广度恶化的时期，就像我们在过去几个交易日所看到的那样，密切关注最强劲股票的买入机会总是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Getting too caught up in the ebbs and flows of the indices tends to distract investors from their overall goal - generating long-term alpha by identifying businesses with innovative products and services.</p><p><blockquote>过于关注指数的起伏往往会分散投资者对其总体目标的注意力——通过识别具有创新产品和服务的企业来产生长期阿尔法。</blockquote></p><p> For example, semiconductor stocks are a great place to look for buying opportunities on market weakness given all of the secular growth drivers that are creating opportunities for the best companies in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>例如，考虑到所有长期增长动力都在为业内最好的公司创造机会，半导体股票是在市场疲软时寻找买入机会的好地方。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices&nbsp;(<b>AMD</b>)&nbsp;is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> chip stock that really stands out, as there are plenty of catalysts specific to its business that couldhelp the stock rallyin the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>先进微器件（<b>AMD</b>）是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>真正脱颖而出的芯片股，因为其业务有很多特定的催化剂可以帮助该股在未来几个月反弹。</blockquote></p><p> With substantial demand for AMD’s computer chips expected to deliver strong annual sales growth this year, a fantastic opportunity to take market share away from a rival, and a potentially groundbreaking acquisition on the horizon, there’s a good chance this stock is headed for $100 a share sooner than the current market action would lead you to believe.</p><p><blockquote>预计今年对 AMD 电脑芯片的巨大需求将带来强劲的年销售额增长，这是一个从竞争对手手中夺取市场份额的绝佳机会，而且一项潜在的突破性收购即将到来，因此该股很有可能比目前的市场走势更早达到每股 100 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a deeper look at why AMD stock could be on its way toward passing the century mark in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>让我们深入了解一下为什么 AMD 的股价会在未来几个月内突破世纪大关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Explosive Growth Across All Business Segments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>所有业务板块均实现爆炸式增长</b></blockquote></p><p> When you consider all of the different forms of technology that rely on AMD’s high-powered chips, it’s easy to recognize the opportunity here.</p><p><blockquote>当你考虑到依赖 AMD 高性能芯片的所有不同形式的技术时，就很容易发现这里的机会。</blockquote></p><p> We live in an increasingly tech-centric world, which means that the need for devices such as computers, consumer electronics and data centers is increasing at an astounding pace.</p><p><blockquote>我们生活在一个日益以技术为中心的世界，这意味着对计算机、消费电子产品和数据中心等设备的需求正以惊人的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> AMD designs the microprocessors that power these devices, and the company isexperiencing explosive growthacross all of its major business segments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 设计为这些设备提供动力的微处理器，目前该公司所有主要业务部门都经历了爆炸式增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s central processing units are essentially the brain of a computer and are seeing heavy demand thanks to data center growth and a red hot PC market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的中央处理器本质上是计算机的大脑，由于数据中心的增长和火热的个人电脑市场，该公司的中央处理器需求量很大。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s graphics processing units are used to increase the speed of rendering images and improve image resolution and color definition. With high growth end markets like video games and machine learning, this is another area of AMD’s business with clear upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的图形处理单元用于提高渲染图像的速度，提高图像分辨率和色彩清晰度。随着视频游戏和机器学习等高增长终端市场的出现，这是 AMD 业务中另一个具有明显上升空间的领域。</blockquote></p><p> For confirmation that this is a business firing on all cylinders, look no further than the company’s massive first-quarter earnings beat, as AMD’s revenue improved by 93% year over year to reach $3.45 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的收入同比增长 93%，达到 34.5 亿美元，因此该公司第一季度的巨额盈利增长就知道了。</blockquote></p><p> This top-line growth was driven by higher revenue in computing and graphics and enterprise, embedded and semi-custom segments, which tells us that the company’s Ryzen, Radeon and EPYC processors are flying off the shelves.</p><p><blockquote>这一营收增长是由计算和图形以及企业、嵌入式和半定制领域收入的增加推动的，这告诉我们，该公司的 Ryzen、Radeon 和 EPYC 处理器即将下架。</blockquote></p><p> Given that AMD boosted its forward guidance after the first quarter and now anticipates 50% annual sales growth vs. the previously anticipated 37%, the strong earnings momentum here should play a big part in helping the stock outperform going forward.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 AMD 在第一季度后提高了前瞻性指引，目前预计年销售额增长 50%，而之前预期为 37%，强劲的盈利势头应该会在帮助该股未来跑赢大盘方面发挥重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaining Market Share from Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>从英特尔获得市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> A few years back, it was hard to envision a scrappy chipmaker like AMD taking significant market share from a tech powerhouse like Intel(<b>INTC</b>).</p><p><blockquote>几年前，很难想象像 AMD 这样斗志昂扬的芯片制造商会从英特尔这样的科技巨头手中夺取大量市场份额（<b>国际电联</b>).</blockquote></p><p> However, thanks to a delay in the production of Intel’s newest generation of chips and incredibly strong data center sales in wake of the pandemic, AMD isgaining significant market sharefrom its competitor and should continue to do so going forward.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于英特尔最新一代芯片的生产延迟，以及大流行病后数据中心销量异常强劲，AMD 正在从竞争对手手中夺取大量市场份额，并应继续保持这一势头。</blockquote></p><p> AMD competes with Intel to supply data center chips, which are in high demand across the cloud and enterprise markets with so many companies moving forward with their digital transformations.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 与英特尔竞争供应数据中心芯片，随着许多公司推进数字化转型，云和企业市场对数据中心芯片的需求量很大。</blockquote></p><p> The key difference between Intel and AMD here is that Intel handles the manufacturing of its chips in-house, while AMD operates with a fabless model.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔和AMD之间的关键区别在于，英特尔在内部处理芯片的制造，而AMD采用无晶圆厂模式。</blockquote></p><p> That means AMD relies on third-party foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing&nbsp;(<b>TSM</b>) to create its cutting-edge chips instead of handling the manufacturing itself.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着 AMD 依赖于台积电等第三方代工厂（<b>TSM</b>）来制造其尖端芯片，而不是处理制造本身。</blockquote></p><p> Intel’s chip manufacturing woes will last until early 2022, which provides AMD a nice window of opportunity to continue taking business away from Intel.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的芯片制造困境将持续到 2022 年初，这为 AMD 提供了一个继续从英特尔手中夺走业务的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth noting that in the first quarter, AMD’s data center revenue doubled while Intel’s data center revenue declined by 20%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，第一季度，AMD的数据中心收入翻了一番，而英特尔的数据中心收入则下降了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Any further evidence of this shift in market share after both companies report their second-quarter earnings in late July could be a strong catalyst for AMD stock.</p><p><blockquote>在两家公司于 7 月下旬公布第二季度收益后，市场份额变化的任何进一步证据都可能成为 AMD 股票的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Xilinx Acquisition a Potential Game-Changer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>赛灵思收购可能改变游戏规则</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> High-profile acquisitions can be hit or miss, but investors should certainly be intrigued byAMD’s move to acquire Xilinx&nbsp;(<b>XLNX</b>) , the leader in programmable logic chips that are used in data centers, machine learning, 5G, edge computing, and more.</p><p><blockquote>备受瞩目的收购可能会成功，也可能会失败，但投资者肯定会对 AMD 收购赛灵思的举动感兴趣（<b>XLNX</b>），是数据中心、机器学习、5G、边缘计算等领域使用的可编程逻辑芯片的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to close by the end of the year and could be just the catalyst the stock needs to get going.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将于今年年底完成，可能是该股上涨所需的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a lot to like about this strategic move, as it increases AMD’s total addressable market to $110 billion and won’t add a ton of debt to the company’s balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>这一战略举措有很多值得称道的地方，因为它将 AMD 的总目标市场增加到 1100 亿美元，而且不会给公司的资产负债表增加大量债务。</blockquote></p><p> The deal could be a game-changer for AMD, as it will allow for more growth in the cloud data center market and diversify the company’s revenue streams.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易可能会改变 AMD 的游戏规则，因为它将使云数据中心市场实现更多增长，并使公司的收入来源多样化。</blockquote></p><p> Although this deal still has to pass a few regulatory hurdles, it’s clear that AMD is currently generating a ton of cash and using it aggressively to develop a true industry-leading product portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这笔交易还需要通过一些监管障碍，但很明显，AMD 目前正在产生大量现金，并积极利用这些现金开发真正行业领先的产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD stock might drop in the short term amid market volatility, a dip to the 200-day moving average could end up being a great place to add shares for a move back to $100 later this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 股价可能会在短期内因市场波动而下跌，但跌至 200 天移动平均线最终可能成为今年晚些时候增持股票回升至 100 美元的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amd-stock-advanced-micro-devices-trading-072021\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amd-stock-advanced-micro-devices-trading-072021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193549178","content_text":"AMD shares could be headed for $100 based on the company's expected strong sales growth, taking market share away from Intel and a potential acquisition.\n\nDuring periods of market volatility and deteriorating breadth like we have witnessed over the past few trading sessions, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye out for buying opportunities in the strongest stocks.\nGetting too caught up in the ebbs and flows of the indices tends to distract investors from their overall goal - generating long-term alpha by identifying businesses with innovative products and services.\nFor example, semiconductor stocks are a great place to look for buying opportunities on market weakness given all of the secular growth drivers that are creating opportunities for the best companies in the industry.\nAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) is one chip stock that really stands out, as there are plenty of catalysts specific to its business that couldhelp the stock rallyin the coming months.\nWith substantial demand for AMD’s computer chips expected to deliver strong annual sales growth this year, a fantastic opportunity to take market share away from a rival, and a potentially groundbreaking acquisition on the horizon, there’s a good chance this stock is headed for $100 a share sooner than the current market action would lead you to believe.\nLet’s take a deeper look at why AMD stock could be on its way toward passing the century mark in the coming months.\nExplosive Growth Across All Business Segments\nWhen you consider all of the different forms of technology that rely on AMD’s high-powered chips, it’s easy to recognize the opportunity here.\nWe live in an increasingly tech-centric world, which means that the need for devices such as computers, consumer electronics and data centers is increasing at an astounding pace.\nAMD designs the microprocessors that power these devices, and the company isexperiencing explosive growthacross all of its major business segments at this time.\nThe company’s central processing units are essentially the brain of a computer and are seeing heavy demand thanks to data center growth and a red hot PC market.\nAMD’s graphics processing units are used to increase the speed of rendering images and improve image resolution and color definition. With high growth end markets like video games and machine learning, this is another area of AMD’s business with clear upside.\nFor confirmation that this is a business firing on all cylinders, look no further than the company’s massive first-quarter earnings beat, as AMD’s revenue improved by 93% year over year to reach $3.45 billion.\nThis top-line growth was driven by higher revenue in computing and graphics and enterprise, embedded and semi-custom segments, which tells us that the company’s Ryzen, Radeon and EPYC processors are flying off the shelves.\nGiven that AMD boosted its forward guidance after the first quarter and now anticipates 50% annual sales growth vs. the previously anticipated 37%, the strong earnings momentum here should play a big part in helping the stock outperform going forward.\nGaining Market Share from Intel\nA few years back, it was hard to envision a scrappy chipmaker like AMD taking significant market share from a tech powerhouse like Intel(INTC).\nHowever, thanks to a delay in the production of Intel’s newest generation of chips and incredibly strong data center sales in wake of the pandemic, AMD isgaining significant market sharefrom its competitor and should continue to do so going forward.\nAMD competes with Intel to supply data center chips, which are in high demand across the cloud and enterprise markets with so many companies moving forward with their digital transformations.\nThe key difference between Intel and AMD here is that Intel handles the manufacturing of its chips in-house, while AMD operates with a fabless model.\nThat means AMD relies on third-party foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) to create its cutting-edge chips instead of handling the manufacturing itself.\nIntel’s chip manufacturing woes will last until early 2022, which provides AMD a nice window of opportunity to continue taking business away from Intel.\nIt’s worth noting that in the first quarter, AMD’s data center revenue doubled while Intel’s data center revenue declined by 20%.\nAny further evidence of this shift in market share after both companies report their second-quarter earnings in late July could be a strong catalyst for AMD stock.\nXilinx Acquisition a Potential Game-Changer\nHigh-profile acquisitions can be hit or miss, but investors should certainly be intrigued byAMD’s move to acquire Xilinx (XLNX) , the leader in programmable logic chips that are used in data centers, machine learning, 5G, edge computing, and more.\nThe deal is expected to close by the end of the year and could be just the catalyst the stock needs to get going.\nThere’s a lot to like about this strategic move, as it increases AMD’s total addressable market to $110 billion and won’t add a ton of debt to the company’s balance sheet.\nThe deal could be a game-changer for AMD, as it will allow for more growth in the cloud data center market and diversify the company’s revenue streams.\nAlthough this deal still has to pass a few regulatory hurdles, it’s clear that AMD is currently generating a ton of cash and using it aggressively to develop a true industry-leading product portfolio.\nWhile AMD stock might drop in the short term amid market volatility, a dip to the 200-day moving average could end up being a great place to add shares for a move back to $100 later this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830867944,"gmtCreate":1629057676088,"gmtModify":1631888909573,"author":{"id":"4087982923993100","authorId":"4087982923993100","name":"Lourdu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e1d3ba110a606f192f5d2b5ea74c56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087982923993100","authorIdStr":"4087982923993100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830867944","repostId":"2159214569","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159214569","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628989290,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159214569?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159214569","media":"MarkeWatch","summary":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.So where does Nio $$","content":"<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarkeWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news\">MarkeWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HMC":"本田汽车","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","STLA":"Stellantis NV"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159214569","content_text":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.\nA Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)\nChinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.\nThat might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.\nSo where does Nio $(NIO)$, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.\nDoubling car production\nFor the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.\nHere's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYou can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.\nFor now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.\nOne thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.\nAmong those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:\nFor Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.\nVolkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.\nFor Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.\nValuation to earnings estimates\nFor companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.\nA high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.\nThen again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.\nNormally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.\nFirst, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:\n\nNio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.\nValuation to sales\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.\nHere's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:\n\nFor reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalysts' opinions\nHere's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local 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