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小晚财经
08-07
$路特斯(LOT)$
欧洲和中东市场混动才是最优解,For Me的超级混动版本正是应对全球分化市场的正确答案
小晚财经
08-05
$百望股份(06657)$
Tax-Swift三级工作区结构直击跨国痛点:总部管全局、海外管合规、一线管开票。企业一旦把全球税务数据接入,替换成本极高,这是比签约本身更重要的竞争壁垒
小晚财经
07-30
$东阳光药(06887)$
减重管线GLP-1三靶点激动剂的临床进展,这是当前医药最热赛道
小晚财经
07-27
$云知声(09678)$
上市以来控股股东零减持+现在反向加,这种结构在港股AI里不算常见
小晚财经
07-27
$百望股份(06657)$
以前觉得合规费钱,现在看是核心竞争力。架构稳了,出海才敢迈大步。长期看,这玩意是基础设施
小晚财经
07-22
$云知声(09678)$
复购占比超 60%、复购规模 yoy +40%,这两个数字一起看才有分量:不是一次性冲收入,是客户真留存、真扩容。主营业务稳定性上来,估值折扣就该收窄
小晚财经
07-21
$百望股份(06657)$
这两天看下来,我反而觉得“智能体接真实流程”这句话比各种模型参数实在多了。没真数据,很多东西就是演示一下热闹热闹。百望这种手里本来就有票税和交易链路的,至少比纯讲故事的更容易让人多看两眼
小晚财经
07-17
$云知声(09678)$
接连中标三甲,说明云知声的交付体系已经成熟了,以后复制起来速度会很快
小晚财经
07-17
$赤子城科技(09911)$
最近走得还可以吧,我还算满意
小晚财经
07-16
业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇
$国泰君安国际(01788)$
2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。
小晚财经
07-16
$百望股份(06657)$
AI 新规今天生效后,企业级AI更拼合规和留痕,这反而对有票税数据底座的公司更友好
小晚财经
07-16
$路特斯(LOT)$
Emeya繁花这外观回头率爆表,主动尾翼升起来的那一刻,旁边BBA都得看一眼,英伦跑车味儿太正了
小晚财经
07-13
$百望股份(06657)$
这次签约最值钱的是信任背书。印尼、马来西亚那几家伙伴在当地深耕多年,税务局认、企业信。百望借他们的船出海,省了太多建信任的时间成本
小晚财经
07-10
$云知声(09678)$
高盛说要做多中国AI价值链
小晚财经
07-07
稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望
$国泰君安国际(01788)$
稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向"数字资产综合服务枢纽"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换
小晚财经
07-06
$百望股份(06657)$
来的是数据局不是税务局,这个细节很关键——关注点在数据要素和数字治理,不是传统财税。百望有望搭上地方政府数据基建的快车,这块想象空间不小
小晚财经
07-06
$云知声(09678)$
利空出尽了,可以放心的进了
小晚财经
06-22
$云知声(09678)$
格局打开,解禁期,一直在压股价,有U2加持,后期涨起来,分分钟的事
小晚财经
06-18
$云知声(09678)$
全球大模型TOP10,云知声U2位列第9,与Anthropic、OpenAI、Google同台竞技,用硬实力敲开全球顶级阵营的大门
小晚财经
06-16
香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际
$国泰君安国际(01788)$
最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。
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这两天看下来,我反而觉得“智能体接真实流程”这句话比各种模型参数实在多了。没真数据,很多东西就是演示一下热闹热闹。百望这种手里本来就有票税和交易链路的,至少比纯讲故事的更容易让人多看两眼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588051817902784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586684161196360,"gmtCreate":1784264866784,"gmtModify":1784264868580,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>接连中标三甲,说明云知声的交付体系已经成熟了,以后复制起来速度会很快","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>接连中标三甲,说明云知声的交付体系已经成熟了,以后复制起来速度会很快","text":"$云知声(09678)$ 接连中标三甲,说明云知声的交付体系已经成熟了,以后复制起来速度会很快","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586684161196360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586618633250080,"gmtCreate":1784248943757,"gmtModify":1784248946063,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09911\">$赤子城科技(09911)$ </a>最近走得还可以吧,我还算满意","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09911\">$赤子城科技(09911)$ </a>最近走得还可以吧,我还算满意","text":"$赤子城科技(09911)$ 最近走得还可以吧,我还算满意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586618633250080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586289963376712,"gmtCreate":1784167295959,"gmtModify":1784167613787,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","listText":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","text":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586289963376712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4242196785042320","authorId":"4242196785042320","name":"亦翻新盘点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/339602f8c82e0b6d1a6687fc9363bcc4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4242196785042320","idStr":"4242196785042320"},"content":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢","text":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢","html":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586271042736256,"gmtCreate":1784164113088,"gmtModify":1784164115156,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06657\">$百望股份(06657)$ </a>AI 新规今天生效后,企业级AI更拼合规和留痕,这反而对有票税数据底座的公司更友好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06657\">$百望股份(06657)$ </a>AI 新规今天生效后,企业级AI更拼合规和留痕,这反而对有票税数据底座的公司更友好","text":"$百望股份(06657)$ AI 新规今天生效后,企业级AI更拼合规和留痕,这反而对有票税数据底座的公司更友好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586271042736256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586266423071000,"gmtCreate":1784162965597,"gmtModify":1784162967735,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOT\">$路特斯(LOT)$ 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</a>这次签约最值钱的是信任背书。印尼、马来西亚那几家伙伴在当地深耕多年,税务局认、企业信。百望借他们的船出海,省了太多建信任的时间成本","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06657\">$百望股份(06657)$ </a>这次签约最值钱的是信任背书。印尼、马来西亚那几家伙伴在当地深耕多年,税务局认、企业信。百望借他们的船出海,省了太多建信任的时间成本","text":"$百望股份(06657)$ 这次签约最值钱的是信任背书。印尼、马来西亚那几家伙伴在当地深耕多年,税务局认、企业信。百望借他们的船出海,省了太多建信任的时间成本","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585209695732016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584208989331528,"gmtCreate":1783659245655,"gmtModify":1783659247507,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a> 高盛说要做多中国AI价值链","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a> 高盛说要做多中国AI价值链","text":"$云知声(09678)$ 高盛说要做多中国AI价值链","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584208989331528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583133469725808,"gmtCreate":1783398009463,"gmtModify":1783398036999,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","listText":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","text":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583133469725808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241910580987920","authorId":"4241910580987920","name":"数策财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff27ca2c58516373d3307fe1f16f4d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4241910580987920","idStr":"4241910580987920"},"content":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理","text":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理","html":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582753745379368,"gmtCreate":1783305282154,"gmtModify":1783306625971,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06657\">$百望股份(06657)$ </a>来的是数据局不是税务局,这个细节很关键——关注点在数据要素和数字治理,不是传统财税。百望有望搭上地方政府数据基建的快车,这块想象空间不小","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06657\">$百望股份(06657)$ </a>来的是数据局不是税务局,这个细节很关键——关注点在数据要素和数字治理,不是传统财税。百望有望搭上地方政府数据基建的快车,这块想象空间不小","text":"$百望股份(06657)$ 来的是数据局不是税务局,这个细节很关键——关注点在数据要素和数字治理,不是传统财税。百望有望搭上地方政府数据基建的快车,这块想象空间不小","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582753745379368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582752316084888,"gmtCreate":1783304944353,"gmtModify":1783304946199,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>利空出尽了,可以放心的进了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>利空出尽了,可以放心的进了","text":"$云知声(09678)$ 利空出尽了,可以放心的进了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582752316084888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577824843628592,"gmtCreate":1782094088133,"gmtModify":1782094221216,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>格局打开,解禁期,一直在压股价,有U2加持,后期涨起来,分分钟的事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>格局打开,解禁期,一直在压股价,有U2加持,后期涨起来,分分钟的事","text":"$云知声(09678)$ 格局打开,解禁期,一直在压股价,有U2加持,后期涨起来,分分钟的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577824843628592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576429222950184,"gmtCreate":1781753276593,"gmtModify":1781753466207,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>全球大模型TOP10,云知声U2位列第9,与Anthropic、OpenAI、Google同台竞技,用硬实力敲开全球顶级阵营的大门","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09678\">$云知声(09678)$ </a>全球大模型TOP10,云知声U2位列第9,与Anthropic、OpenAI、Google同台竞技,用硬实力敲开全球顶级阵营的大门","text":"$云知声(09678)$ 全球大模型TOP10,云知声U2位列第9,与Anthropic、OpenAI、Google同台竞技,用硬实力敲开全球顶级阵营的大门","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576429222950184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575743901010016,"gmtCreate":1781576429603,"gmtModify":1781578353265,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4242187543026390","idStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","listText":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","text":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575743901010016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241910580987920","authorId":"4241910580987920","name":"数策财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff27ca2c58516373d3307fe1f16f4d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4241910580987920","idStr":"4241910580987920"},"content":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上","text":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上","html":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":566808126126296,"gmtCreate":1779415284968,"gmtModify":1779415840871,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"联想FY25/26业绩点评:真正的变化,不在收入新高,而在利润弹性开始释放 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$ </a>在AI硬件和企业级基础设施需求持续升温的背景下,联想这份FY25/26财报给出的信号,比“历史最好财年”本身更值得玩味。收入创新高只是表层,更关键的是,利润增速明显跑赢收入增速,ISG从过去的估值拖累项转向盈利贡献项,AI相关收入也开始在集团收入结构中占据更大权重。这意味着,市场对联想的理解,可能需要从“PC龙头的周期修复”,进一步切换到“AI终端、AI基础设施和AI服务共同驱动的系统级公司”。 最直接的变化,是利润弹性开始显现。 全年联想收入达到831亿美元,同比增长20%,创下历史新高;经调整净利润达到20亿美元,同比增长42%。利润增速约为收入增速的两倍,说明公司并不是单纯依靠出货和规模推高收入,而是在更大的业务体量上,开始释放经营杠杆。对于资本市场来说,这比“收入突破800亿美元”更有含金量。 第四财季的表现尤其值得关注。单季收入达到216亿美元,同比增长27%,创过去五年最高增速;经调整净利润达到5.59亿美元,同比增长101%。换句话说,Q4不是一个普通的高增长季度,而是利润改善开始兑现的季度。收入端的强劲固然重要,但更值得注意的是,利润端的弹性已经明显放大。 AI也不再只是战略叙事,而是进入了收入表。 全年AI相关收入同比增长105%,占集团总收入33%;第四财季AI相关收入同比增长84%,占比进一步提升至38%。这组数据说明,AI对联想的影响已经不局限于概念层面,而是实实在在体现在设备、服务器、服务和解决方案多个业务环节。市场过去习惯用PC公司的框架看联想,但从这份财报看,这一框架已经不够用了。 真正可能改变估值逻辑的,是ISG的反转。过去,基础设施方案业务虽然有增","listText":"联想FY25/26业绩点评:真正的变化,不在收入新高,而在利润弹性开始释放 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">$联想集团(00992)$ </a>在AI硬件和企业级基础设施需求持续升温的背景下,联想这份FY25/26财报给出的信号,比“历史最好财年”本身更值得玩味。收入创新高只是表层,更关键的是,利润增速明显跑赢收入增速,ISG从过去的估值拖累项转向盈利贡献项,AI相关收入也开始在集团收入结构中占据更大权重。这意味着,市场对联想的理解,可能需要从“PC龙头的周期修复”,进一步切换到“AI终端、AI基础设施和AI服务共同驱动的系统级公司”。 最直接的变化,是利润弹性开始显现。 全年联想收入达到831亿美元,同比增长20%,创下历史新高;经调整净利润达到20亿美元,同比增长42%。利润增速约为收入增速的两倍,说明公司并不是单纯依靠出货和规模推高收入,而是在更大的业务体量上,开始释放经营杠杆。对于资本市场来说,这比“收入突破800亿美元”更有含金量。 第四财季的表现尤其值得关注。单季收入达到216亿美元,同比增长27%,创过去五年最高增速;经调整净利润达到5.59亿美元,同比增长101%。换句话说,Q4不是一个普通的高增长季度,而是利润改善开始兑现的季度。收入端的强劲固然重要,但更值得注意的是,利润端的弹性已经明显放大。 AI也不再只是战略叙事,而是进入了收入表。 全年AI相关收入同比增长105%,占集团总收入33%;第四财季AI相关收入同比增长84%,占比进一步提升至38%。这组数据说明,AI对联想的影响已经不局限于概念层面,而是实实在在体现在设备、服务器、服务和解决方案多个业务环节。市场过去习惯用PC公司的框架看联想,但从这份财报看,这一框架已经不够用了。 真正可能改变估值逻辑的,是ISG的反转。过去,基础设施方案业务虽然有增","text":"联想FY25/26业绩点评:真正的变化,不在收入新高,而在利润弹性开始释放 $联想集团(00992)$ 在AI硬件和企业级基础设施需求持续升温的背景下,联想这份FY25/26财报给出的信号,比“历史最好财年”本身更值得玩味。收入创新高只是表层,更关键的是,利润增速明显跑赢收入增速,ISG从过去的估值拖累项转向盈利贡献项,AI相关收入也开始在集团收入结构中占据更大权重。这意味着,市场对联想的理解,可能需要从“PC龙头的周期修复”,进一步切换到“AI终端、AI基础设施和AI服务共同驱动的系统级公司”。 最直接的变化,是利润弹性开始显现。 全年联想收入达到831亿美元,同比增长20%,创下历史新高;经调整净利润达到20亿美元,同比增长42%。利润增速约为收入增速的两倍,说明公司并不是单纯依靠出货和规模推高收入,而是在更大的业务体量上,开始释放经营杠杆。对于资本市场来说,这比“收入突破800亿美元”更有含金量。 第四财季的表现尤其值得关注。单季收入达到216亿美元,同比增长27%,创过去五年最高增速;经调整净利润达到5.59亿美元,同比增长101%。换句话说,Q4不是一个普通的高增长季度,而是利润改善开始兑现的季度。收入端的强劲固然重要,但更值得注意的是,利润端的弹性已经明显放大。 AI也不再只是战略叙事,而是进入了收入表。 全年AI相关收入同比增长105%,占集团总收入33%;第四财季AI相关收入同比增长84%,占比进一步提升至38%。这组数据说明,AI对联想的影响已经不局限于概念层面,而是实实在在体现在设备、服务器、服务和解决方案多个业务环节。市场过去习惯用PC公司的框架看联想,但从这份财报看,这一框架已经不够用了。 真正可能改变估值逻辑的,是ISG的反转。过去,基础设施方案业务虽然有增","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566808126126296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566466454967624,"gmtCreate":1779331807015,"gmtModify":1779333234161,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"港股打新爆火,国泰君安国际坐享科技 IPO 红利","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近,港股打新热度空前,一众硬科技新股接连出现超高倍数认购,市场做多情绪彻底点燃,新股上市普遍迎来不俗涨幅,港股 IPO 赛道迎来新一轮黄金发展期。 在此市场风口之下,深耕港股市场多年的国泰君安国际充分把握行业机遇,顺势迎来业务全面提速。作为老牌头部跨境券商,公司投行实力雄厚,依托母公司强大资源优势,深度布局 AI、创新科技、高端制造等热门赛道 IPO 项目,手握大量优质拟上市企业资源。 随着大量优质新经济企业扎堆登陆港股,市场打新资金源源不断涌入,直接带动券商保荐承销、股票配售、财富管理等多项核心业务放量增长。国泰君安国际凭借成熟的跨境投融资服务体系,稳居港股配售市场前列,业务营收与盈利水平持续稳步攀升。 行情热度持续走高,港股科技企业上市浪潮仍在延续,市场流动性与投资活跃度不断提升。国泰君安国际牢牢占据赛道核心优势,持续享受 IPO 扩容与打新热潮带来的双重红利,业绩增长逻辑清晰明确,后续成长空间值得市场持续看好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近,港股打新热度空前,一众硬科技新股接连出现超高倍数认购,市场做多情绪彻底点燃,新股上市普遍迎来不俗涨幅,港股 IPO 赛道迎来新一轮黄金发展期。 在此市场风口之下,深耕港股市场多年的国泰君安国际充分把握行业机遇,顺势迎来业务全面提速。作为老牌头部跨境券商,公司投行实力雄厚,依托母公司强大资源优势,深度布局 AI、创新科技、高端制造等热门赛道 IPO 项目,手握大量优质拟上市企业资源。 随着大量优质新经济企业扎堆登陆港股,市场打新资金源源不断涌入,直接带动券商保荐承销、股票配售、财富管理等多项核心业务放量增长。国泰君安国际凭借成熟的跨境投融资服务体系,稳居港股配售市场前列,业务营收与盈利水平持续稳步攀升。 行情热度持续走高,港股科技企业上市浪潮仍在延续,市场流动性与投资活跃度不断提升。国泰君安国际牢牢占据赛道核心优势,持续享受 IPO 扩容与打新热潮带来的双重红利,业绩增长逻辑清晰明确,后续成长空间值得市场持续看好。","text":"$国泰君安国际(01788)$ 最近,港股打新热度空前,一众硬科技新股接连出现超高倍数认购,市场做多情绪彻底点燃,新股上市普遍迎来不俗涨幅,港股 IPO 赛道迎来新一轮黄金发展期。 在此市场风口之下,深耕港股市场多年的国泰君安国际充分把握行业机遇,顺势迎来业务全面提速。作为老牌头部跨境券商,公司投行实力雄厚,依托母公司强大资源优势,深度布局 AI、创新科技、高端制造等热门赛道 IPO 项目,手握大量优质拟上市企业资源。 随着大量优质新经济企业扎堆登陆港股,市场打新资金源源不断涌入,直接带动券商保荐承销、股票配售、财富管理等多项核心业务放量增长。国泰君安国际凭借成熟的跨境投融资服务体系,稳居港股配售市场前列,业务营收与盈利水平持续稳步攀升。 行情热度持续走高,港股科技企业上市浪潮仍在延续,市场流动性与投资活跃度不断提升。国泰君安国际牢牢占据赛道核心优势,持续享受 IPO 扩容与打新热潮带来的双重红利,业绩增长逻辑清晰明确,后续成长空间值得市场持续看好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566466454967624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241910580987920","authorId":"4241910580987920","name":"数策财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff27ca2c58516373d3307fe1f16f4d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4241910580987920","authorIdStr":"4241910580987920"},"content":"行情热度上来了,成交量和业务量都能跟着涨","text":"行情热度上来了,成交量和业务量都能跟着涨","html":"行情热度上来了,成交量和业务量都能跟着涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586289963376712,"gmtCreate":1784167295959,"gmtModify":1784167613787,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","listText":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","text":"业绩与估值阶段性错配?券商板块的“认知差”与国泰君安国际的Alpha机遇 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 2026年上半年,券商板块上演了一出典型的“业绩强、股价弱”:1Q26日均股基成交额3.15万亿元、同比大增77.3%,两融余额2.66万亿元、同比增长42.0%。然而,申万证券Ⅱ指数却跑输上证,50只成份股中仅8只收涨,且几乎清一色为头部券商,中小券商持续拖累指数。 从行业格局看,头部集中趋势不可逆,上市券商CR5净利润占比已攀升至55%以上,扩表能力、客户资源正向巨头聚拢。当前板块PB约1.25倍,仅处于近十年20%分位、近五年40%分位区间,估值性价比凸显。市场过度博弈短期成交额Beta,却忽视了行业从“靠天吃饭”向“存量运营”的深层转型。 在这一逻辑下,国泰君安国际(1788.HK)正是“头部券商+国际化”的稀缺样本。作为国泰海通体系下的境外核心平台,公司2025年营收62.30亿港元(+41%),归母净利润13.45亿港元(+287%),ROE由2.3%跃升至8.7%。具体看,投行收入大增133%,港股配售项目数位居市场前列;资管规模增长49%、收入翻倍;OTC产品交易量与客户数均增逾50%,财富管理向综合资产配置平台加速转型。随着母公司拟向国际业务平台增资90亿港元,公司在港深耕跨境业务的同时,亦积极布局东南亚等增量市场。在A股券商仍被成交额单一变量定价之时,这类能将交易流量沉淀为高粘性客户资产、且海外业务ROE显著高于境内的标的,无疑更具备穿越周期的Alpha潜力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586289963376712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4242196785042320","authorId":"4242196785042320","name":"亦翻新盘点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/339602f8c82e0b6d1a6687fc9363bcc4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4242196785042320","authorIdStr":"4242196785042320"},"content":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢","text":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢","html":"现在的券商不能只看两市成交额,国际业务和财富管理的估值溢价还没被市场充分定价呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583133469725808,"gmtCreate":1783398009463,"gmtModify":1783398036999,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","listText":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","text":"稳定币时代下的国泰君安国际后市展望 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 稳定币合规生态落地,国泰君安国际凭借中资券商唯一虚拟资产全牌照的先发优势,已从传统券商向\"数字资产综合服务枢纽\"升级。公司将通过虚拟资产交易、托管、做市及RWA(真实世界资产)代币化等业务,切入稳定币生态。 业务增量空间明确。随着汇丰、渣打等持牌机构计划于2026年下半年推出合规港元稳定币,虚拟资产交易需求将集中释放。公司作为首批可提供全方位虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商,可直接对接新增的机构与零售客户交易需求,交易佣金及托管费收入有望显著提升。 母公司协同效应强化增长逻辑。背靠国泰海通(原国泰君安与海通证券合并)的庞大客户网络,公司可将传统证券客户导入虚拟资产市场,形成跨资产协同。东吴证券指出,该牌照验证了中资券商承接虚拟资产合规运营的能力,公司估值逻辑迎来质 估值存在修复空间。 当前市盈率约14.5倍,仍处于传统券商估值区间,随着稳定币相关业务收入逐步兑现,若市场对其数字金融属性重新定价,估值中枢有望向更高水平切换","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583133469725808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241910580987920","authorId":"4241910580987920","name":"数策财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff27ca2c58516373d3307fe1f16f4d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4241910580987920","authorIdStr":"4241910580987920"},"content":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理","text":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理","html":"有独家全牌照就是硬道理"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575743901010016,"gmtCreate":1781576429603,"gmtModify":1781578353265,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","listText":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">$国泰君安国际(01788)$ </a>最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","text":"香港数字金融全面提速,看好国泰君安国际 $国泰君安国际(01788)$ 最近香港金管局总裁余伟文在北京那场采访信息量真炸,稳定币、数字货币、理财通3.0全放利好,最受益的中资券商绝对是国泰君安国际。 先说稳定币这块,碇点几周后就试运营,汇丰年底上线。发币牌照只给两家银行,但散户和企业买卖稳定币、做代币化资产交易,都得走持牌券商渠道。1788是少数拿全虚拟资产全套牌照的中资券商,没有竞品分流,稳定币交易佣金比普通股票高不少,还是7×24小时能做,实打实多一块高利润收入。而且监管说了先让两家跑通再批新发行牌照,短期竞争压力很小,先发优势稳了。 再看跨境理财通,现在QDII额度紧缺,不少基金都限购,理财通不占个人换汇额度,吸引力直接拉满。监管一边严打非法跨境投资,一边推进3.0扩容,放宽产品、额度,大量之前走灰色渠道的资金都会回流正规券商。国泰君安国际早就布局理财通业务,背靠内地国泰君安,能持续导入大湾区客户,财富业务增量肉眼可见。 再加离岸人民币额度扩容到2000亿,流动性充足,理财、跨境结算业务成本更低。香港三类数字货币同步落地,机构大额链上结算、散户数字资产配置它全都能做。 现在香港数字金融不再是空概念,马上有产品落地,1788多条增长线同时发力,后面业绩和估值都有想象空间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575743901010016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241910580987920","authorId":"4241910580987920","name":"数策财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff27ca2c58516373d3307fe1f16f4d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4241910580987920","authorIdStr":"4241910580987920"},"content":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上","text":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上","html":"金管局明确先观察首批发行机构运营再批新牌照,未来数月稳定币交易需求集中释放在现有合规券商身上"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":590327763325912,"gmtCreate":1785124527223,"gmtModify":1785124529099,"author":{"id":"4242187543026390","authorId":"4242187543026390","name":"小晚财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860f959b3206aeff70d6d2f628b9202f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4242187543026390","authorIdStr":"4242187543026390"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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