The May jobs report is expected to reflect the fastest hiring since August as companies juggle booming demand, easing business restrictions, and pockets of difficulty across the country in finding workers. The April report was expected to be strong, too, but it was a massive disappointment.
There are two key questions we’re focused on heading into the report. First, by how much did generous unemployment benefits, ongoing child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns cap hiring during the month.Second, how fast did wages rise as companies struggle to attract help. The latter question is central to determining whether inflation that is running hot is already something more than transitory.
Economists surveyed by FactSet predict an increase of 650,000 in nonfarm payrolls in May, up from April’s disappointing gain of 266,000. The unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 5.9% from 6.1% as the participation rate edged up, a sign that the unemployment rate is falling for the right reasons.
Wages, meanwhile, are expected to have risen 0.2% from April after surging 0.7% a month earlier. On a year-over-year basis, that would translate to a 1.6% rate. We note the average hourly earnings component of the monthly jobs report doesn’t include bonuses that many employers are offering to recruit workers.
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