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王6688

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- 王6688王6688
  ·01-02 10:08
  $壁仞科技(06082)$ 想玩格局，可惜港股这个烂市场不允许，这个市场就不配有好公司
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-12-26
  拿钱办事，这种言论一出，应该就快到顶了
  华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关
  先看盈利，再看市盈率。
  华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关
  131 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-06-27
  $小米集团-W(01810)$ 一帮乌合之众
  856 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-05-12
  $三倍做多FANG+指数-MicroSectors(FNGA)$ 为啥不涨了？
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-03-28
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 破鼓万人捶，继续空
  1,524 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-03-28
  $NQ100指数主连 2506(NQmain)$ 这次都变聪明了，一看不对都减仓或者买了空单，美股今年不好玩，得拿出A股的思维来跟他玩，哈哈
  1,724 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-03-12
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 队伍心散了，不好带了
  1,620 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-02-12
  $NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ 猴市，天天上蹿下跳的
  1,544 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-01-27
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 买点，投资者也太恐慌了，不至于
  1,140 评论
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- 王6688王6688
  ·2025-01-14
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 可能性很大，首先消息源可信度就挺高，还有就逻辑上来讲TT如果不能在美股继续留存下去，卖给马斯克就是最好的选择，中国官方可以以此作为筹码和美国下一届政府当局者谈判，把损失降到最低
  2,494 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 想玩格局，可惜港股这个烂市场不允许，这个市场就不配有好公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 想玩格局，可惜港股这个烂市场不允许，这个市场就不配有好公司","text":"$壁仞科技(06082)$ 想玩格局，可惜港股这个烂市场不允许，这个市场就不配有好公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/517508408553880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514955433906664,"gmtCreate":1766751905631,"gmtModify":1766751908369,"author":{"id":"12012867840342","authorId":"12012867840342","name":"王6688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5e09cc776acb2a594bc0fa0eb6772c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"12012867840342","idStr":"12012867840342"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"拿钱办事，这种言论一出，应该就快到顶了","listText":"拿钱办事，这种言论一出，应该就快到顶了","text":"拿钱办事，这种言论一出，应该就快到顶了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514955433906664","repostId":"1106149044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106149044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766738852,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106149044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-26 16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106149044","media":"智通财经","summary":"先看盈利，再看市盈率。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加“数十美元”——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那个标题数字：500美元 × 20 = 10000点</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这是可能的。更大的波动因素是估值倍数，当经济衰退概率上升时，市盈率往往会收缩。他的论点隐含了一个假设：经济将继续吸收冲击而不会深度下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在完整访谈中，亚德尼更深入地探讨了是什么支撑着高估值倍数——以及什么会迫使估值重置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>为何他认为“咆哮的二十年代”依然成立</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼认为，他在本十年初提出的这个“咆哮的二十年代”得到了最简单的记分牌指标支持：经济产出和消费保持强劲，市场屡创新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这种韧性之下，他非常重视生产率：数字经济正变得更快、更便宜、更具扩展性。在他看来，人工智能与其说是一种独立的狂热，不如说是长达数十年演进的下一阶段，从大型机到个人电脑，再到云计算，再到人工智能，使公司能够以更少的资源做更多的事，并支撑更高的盈利能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他也谈到了政策不确定性，包括关税问题。市场已有时间“适应”贸易风险，亚德尼暗示，政治激励最终可能倾向于回调极端做法。尽管如此，他也承认围绕行政权力能走多远以及法院介入可能发生什么存在不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>AI泡沫恐惧：为何今天不像1999年</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼对AI“泡沫”辩论的看法异常直接：在他看来，如此多的投资者在辩论泡沫风险这一事实本身，可能表明我们并未处于真正的狂热顶峰。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他将今天与1990年代末进行了对比。据他回忆，那时投机行为更被广泛接受，质疑声较少。而现在，AI龙头股可能在负面催化剂下大幅下跌，随后又因基本面重新发挥作用而企稳。他以今年围绕与中国相关的AI发展叙事引发的市场波动为例：市场反应剧烈，但主要公司重申其支出计划保持不变，因为需求仍然存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他更重要的观点是，AI领域的领导地位并非单一公司的故事。这是一场在超大规模厂商及芯片/软件生态系统之间持续进行的竞争赛跑——他称之为“一场永无止境的赛马”——这既会制造波动，也会带来持续的投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资产配置：不要“超配”已主导指数的部分</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼一个更实用的观点是关于投资组合构建，而非预测。鉴于科技和通信服务板块在标普500指数中已占据很大份额，在经历大幅上涨后，他对建议投资者简单“超配科技”持谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相反，他倾向于在由巨型股主导的领域保持市场权重，同时在其他领域寻求多元化。他提到了医疗保健等领域(他认为该板块相对低迷且可能改善)，以及工业和金融等周期性板块。他也在AI基础设施建设的背景下讨论了能源——如果AI需要巨大的算力，它就需要巨大的电力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是一个重要的微妙之处：亚德尼看涨，但他并非主张单一押注的投资组合。他主张参与主导趋势，同时不增加集中度风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄金：为何他改变了立场——以及为何“10000”会被谈及</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚德尼传统上不愿对黄金做出强力预测，因为黄金不产生现金流，难以用传统模型估值。但他表示，价格走势和资金流动已足够改变他的看法，他现在看好黄金作为多元化工具——甚至建议投资者超配黄金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的需求论述是双重的：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. 央行增持，特别是那些寻求从与美元挂钩的储备中多元化出来的国家。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. 关键地区(如中国和印度)的家庭/投资者需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此，亚德尼提出了一个引人深思的观点：在非常长的时期内，黄金和标普500指数的趋势经常相互呼应。这并不意味着它们月复一月地同步运动(它们经常不同步)。但这也部分解释了为何他可以设想一个世界：标普500指数向10000点移动的同时，黄金也可能向10000美元移动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即使这个具体目标听起来极端，其投资组合含义更为清晰：在地缘政治分裂、储备多元化和技术快速变革的时代，亚德尼将黄金视为一种战略对冲工具。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>需要关注什么(真正的波动因素)</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果亚德尼是正确的，那么故事就不仅仅是“股市上涨”。看涨情景取决于几个重大变量总体上保持支撑：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1. 没有衰退 / 没有导致估值重置的重大盈利下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. AI转化为可衡量的生产率提升，而不仅仅是资本支出炒作。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3. 政策和地缘政治保持破坏性(合理的基线情景)但未达到系统崩溃的程度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4. 市场集中度风险通过广度扩展或板块轮动得到管理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是为什么他的展望最好被理解为一个框架：盈利增长加上仍然可观的估值倍数可以使指数达到10000点——但这条道路很可能包含波动、轮动和周期性的叙事冲击。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街老将：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000大关\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-26 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385991.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1106149044","content_text":"华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——“咆哮的二十年代”的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加“数十美元”——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那个标题数字：500美元 × 20 = 10000点在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这是可能的。更大的波动因素是估值倍数，当经济衰退概率上升时，市盈率往往会收缩。他的论点隐含了一个假设：经济将继续吸收冲击而不会深度下滑。在完整访谈中，亚德尼更深入地探讨了是什么支撑着高估值倍数——以及什么会迫使估值重置。为何他认为“咆哮的二十年代”依然成立亚德尼认为，他在本十年初提出的这个“咆哮的二十年代”得到了最简单的记分牌指标支持：经济产出和消费保持强劲，市场屡创新高。在这种韧性之下，他非常重视生产率：数字经济正变得更快、更便宜、更具扩展性。在他看来，人工智能与其说是一种独立的狂热，不如说是长达数十年演进的下一阶段，从大型机到个人电脑，再到云计算，再到人工智能，使公司能够以更少的资源做更多的事，并支撑更高的盈利能力。他也谈到了政策不确定性，包括关税问题。市场已有时间“适应”贸易风险，亚德尼暗示，政治激励最终可能倾向于回调极端做法。尽管如此，他也承认围绕行政权力能走多远以及法院介入可能发生什么存在不确定性。AI泡沫恐惧：为何今天不像1999年亚德尼对AI“泡沫”辩论的看法异常直接：在他看来，如此多的投资者在辩论泡沫风险这一事实本身，可能表明我们并未处于真正的狂热顶峰。他将今天与1990年代末进行了对比。据他回忆，那时投机行为更被广泛接受，质疑声较少。而现在，AI龙头股可能在负面催化剂下大幅下跌，随后又因基本面重新发挥作用而企稳。他以今年围绕与中国相关的AI发展叙事引发的市场波动为例：市场反应剧烈，但主要公司重申其支出计划保持不变，因为需求仍然存在。他更重要的观点是，AI领域的领导地位并非单一公司的故事。这是一场在超大规模厂商及芯片/软件生态系统之间持续进行的竞争赛跑——他称之为“一场永无止境的赛马”——这既会制造波动，也会带来持续的投资。资产配置：不要“超配”已主导指数的部分亚德尼一个更实用的观点是关于投资组合构建，而非预测。鉴于科技和通信服务板块在标普500指数中已占据很大份额，在经历大幅上涨后，他对建议投资者简单“超配科技”持谨慎态度。相反，他倾向于在由巨型股主导的领域保持市场权重，同时在其他领域寻求多元化。他提到了医疗保健等领域(他认为该板块相对低迷且可能改善)，以及工业和金融等周期性板块。他也在AI基础设施建设的背景下讨论了能源——如果AI需要巨大的算力，它就需要巨大的电力。这是一个重要的微妙之处：亚德尼看涨，但他并非主张单一押注的投资组合。他主张参与主导趋势，同时不增加集中度风险。黄金：为何他改变了立场——以及为何“10000”会被谈及亚德尼传统上不愿对黄金做出强力预测，因为黄金不产生现金流，难以用传统模型估值。但他表示，价格走势和资金流动已足够改变他的看法，他现在看好黄金作为多元化工具——甚至建议投资者超配黄金。他的需求论述是双重的：1. 央行增持，特别是那些寻求从与美元挂钩的储备中多元化出来的国家。2. 关键地区(如中国和印度)的家庭/投资者需求。由此，亚德尼提出了一个引人深思的观点：在非常长的时期内，黄金和标普500指数的趋势经常相互呼应。这并不意味着它们月复一月地同步运动(它们经常不同步)。但这也部分解释了为何他可以设想一个世界：标普500指数向10000点移动的同时，黄金也可能向10000美元移动。即使这个具体目标听起来极端，其投资组合含义更为清晰：在地缘政治分裂、储备多元化和技术快速变革的时代，亚德尼将黄金视为一种战略对冲工具。需要关注什么(真正的波动因素)如果亚德尼是正确的，那么故事就不仅仅是“股市上涨”。看涨情景取决于几个重大变量总体上保持支撑：1. 没有衰退 / 没有导致估值重置的重大盈利下滑。2. 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