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潍坊吉祥号

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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·05-20
  $小米集团-W(01810)$ 真有这么牛吗
  654 评论
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·01-01
  这个是那个币
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,069 1
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-06-23
  中国公司忽略
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,930 评论
  1
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-06-07
  $游戏驿站(GME)$ 涨到80
  2,023 评论
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-05-30
  $Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 4分还远吗
  3,032 1
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-05-29
  $Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 都买开心汽车吧，价格便宜
  1,824 评论
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-05-17
  $开心汽车(KXIN)$ 这个比贾会计的便宜，怎么换手率这么低呢，买的少吗
  2,376 评论
  1
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-05-16
  $国美零售(00493)$ 这个股票怎么没有炒作的呢？兄弟们搞一把
  2,112 评论
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-03-05
  $高途(GOTU)$ 还能回到3吗
  2,420 评论
  3
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- 潍坊吉祥号潍坊吉祥号
  ·2024-02-18
  继续加，再加三年吧
  今年不降息？甚至加息？美联储会再打脸吗
  美国通胀重新加速叠加劳动力市场火热，法兴认为，美联储没理由急于降息，甚至还可能进一步加息。萨默斯高呼今年加息概率为15%，英国资管巨头直言加息可能性达到20%。
  今年不降息？甚至加息？美联储会再打脸吗
  1,665 评论
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还能回到3吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281000014950696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":275406363029784,"gmtCreate":1708260549424,"gmtModify":1708260550984,"author":{"id":"242949638079967","authorId":"242949638079967","name":"潍坊吉祥号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"242949638079967","authorIdStr":"242949638079967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续加，再加三年吧","listText":"继续加，再加三年吧","text":"继续加，再加三年吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/275406363029784","repostId":"2412967517","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2412967517","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1708256074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2412967517?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-18 19:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"今年不降息？甚至加息？美联储会再打脸吗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2412967517","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国通胀重新加速叠加劳动力市场火热，法兴认为，美联储没理由急于降息，甚至还可能进一步加息。萨默斯高呼今年加息概率为15%，英国资管巨头直言加息可能性达到20%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美国通胀重新加速叠加劳动力市场火热，法兴认为，美联储没理由急于降息，甚至还可能进一步加息。萨默斯高呼今年加息概率为15%，英国资管巨头直言加息可能性达到20%。</strong></p></blockquote><p>美国1月两大重磅通胀数据CPI和PPI均超预期，服务类通胀重燃，美联储官员“强硬表态”也让市场开始不断调整将息预期。而现在更极端的情况出现了，美国前财政部长萨默斯与多家华尔街投行接连发出“加息”的呼声，投资者今年又要被打脸了？</p><p>过去两年里，金融市场出现了几次“虚假的曙光”，习惯了长期宽松货币时代的投资者一直预测美联储将“转向”，结果却被打了一次又一次脸。但自去年12月，美联储主席杰鲍威尔突然转向后，整个华尔街又开始大举押注降息真的快要来了。</p><p>但近期美联储货币政策让经济承压的同时，“抗通胀”进程意外颠簸。2月16日，作为美国高通胀的吹哨人，萨默斯在接受采访时表示直言，<strong>美联储下一步很有可能是上调利率，而不是下调利率，这一概率为15%。”</strong>他认为，美联储的举动必须“非常小心”。</p><p>不仅仅是萨默斯，多家华尔街投行也让投资者警惕美联储加息的风险，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>分析师Kit Juckes认为，美联储“没有理由急于”降息，如果美国经济重新加速增长，那么美联储下一次的利率决议可能是加息而非降息。</p><p>英国资管巨头Jupiter Asset Management宏观基金经理Mark Nash认为，美联储加息而不是降息的可能性达到20%，他认为强劲的消费需求和公司可能加大支出的前景或再次加剧通胀风险：</p><blockquote><p>“如果有大量的资本需求，支出也很大，且通胀高于目标，美联储将不得不进一步调高利率，”他说。“这不是一个巨大的风险，但也不容忽视。”</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>美国经济团队在上周的一份研究报告中提出，与FOMC的预测相比，美国经济未来可能面临更低的失业率以及更缓慢的通胀降温速度，这或许会让美联储在今年保持利率不变，且这种结果发生的概率并不低。</p><h2 id=\"id_3775953630\">市场不断推迟将息预期</h2><p>今年以来，对美联储降息的押注一直是华尔街投行们策略走向的关键。</p><p>去年12月，当美联储主席杰鲍威尔突然转向，交易员又开始押注美联储将会大幅降息，<strong>最早从3月开始，降息幅度最高达到了175个基点，这与美联储所暗示的降息3次，每次25个基点有差别巨大</strong>。</p><p>但由于近期数据显示美国“去通胀”波折不断，同时美国经济看起来仍具韧性，市场对美联储降息时间表的预期也被不断推迟。</p><p>目前，美联储观察工具显示，<strong>市场预计美联储的首次降息更可能发生在6月，概率为53.7%；</strong>而3月降息的可能性已经从一个月前的55%左右降至10%，3月维持利率不变的概率则高达90%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0851467c866e99439ec2470fef24c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"729\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1159155106\">美联储会再次打脸市场吗？</h2><p><strong>一方面，美国未来抗通胀之路崎岖不平。</strong>美国1月CPI同比上涨3.1%，PPI同比上涨0.9%，均高于市场预期。萨默斯提到这两项主要通胀指标时指出，美国经济“软着陆”的设想目前面临威胁。</p><p>从结构来看，1月核心通胀下行受阻的根源在于核心服务。1月核心服务通胀同比为5.4%，较2023年12月上行0.1个百分点，环比上行0.3个百分点至0.7%。<strong>核心服务通胀成了阻碍核心通胀下降的关键因素</strong>。</p><p>而<strong>最重要的原因就是租金通胀</strong>。1月主要居住租金和业主等价租金同比继续回落；但主要居住租金通胀环比持平0.4%，业主等价租金通胀环比扩大至0.6%，为2023年4月以来高点。</p><p>萨默斯表示，一段时间以来，经济学家们的主要预期是，住房成本将成为总体价格指标中的一个重要的压低通胀的因素。然而，这尚未实现。同时除住房外的服务通胀压力也较大。1月除住房外的服务通胀环比为0.6%，为2022年9月以来高点。萨默斯认为，<strong>2024年“去通胀”路径将仍有波折。</strong></p><p>萨默斯指出，在通胀仍是问题的情况下，美联储不会愿意过早冒险放松政策，他比喻道：</p><blockquote><p>“当医生给你开抗生素时，对此你最糟糕的做法就是只接受部分抗生素治疗，感觉好些了之后就不用了，而正是因为你不喜欢服药就提早放弃抗生素治疗，你的疾病往往会复发，而且在复发之后往往更难康复。”</p></blockquote><p><strong>另一方面，美国经济和劳动力市场似乎仍具韧性</strong>。1月非农报告显示就业人数超预期激增，显示劳动力市场依旧火热，经济增长势头强劲。此前，美国2023年GDP增速等一系列经济数据也疯狂打脸“美国经济很快步入衰退”的说法。</p><p>Kit Juckes在报告中写道，如果美国经济重新加速，美联储最终将不得不再次加息，美元将会上涨：</p><blockquote><p>即使目前市场对加息的可能性定价为零，加息的风险也开始在蔓延。美联储如果再次加息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>预计将逼近历史最高点。</p></blockquote><p>此外，有分析师指出，市场总是提前判断美联储的转向。全球对冲基金和投资组合经理合作的宏观咨询公司Stray Reflections的创始人贾瓦德·米安(Jawad Mian)在一份报告中指出，还记得2008-2009年，为了对抗经济衰退，美联储将联邦基金利率降至接近零的水平，但市场早早预期美联储要开始加息，但这种极低的利率环境持续了很长时间，直到2015年12月美联储才开始加息，这是自金融危机以来的首次加息。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年不降息？甚至加息？美联储会再打脸吗</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年不降息？甚至加息？美联储会再打脸吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-18 19:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708494><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国通胀重新加速叠加劳动力市场火热，法兴认为，美联储没理由急于降息，甚至还可能进一步加息。萨默斯高呼今年加息概率为15%，英国资管巨头直言加息可能性达到20%。美国1月两大重磅通胀数据CPI和PPI均超预期，服务类通胀重燃，美联储官员“强硬表态”也让市场开始不断调整将息预期。而现在更极端的情况出现了，美国前财政部长萨默斯与多家华尔街投行接连发出“加息”的呼声，投资者今年又要被打脸了？过去两年里，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708494\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708494","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2412967517","content_text":"美国通胀重新加速叠加劳动力市场火热，法兴认为，美联储没理由急于降息，甚至还可能进一步加息。萨默斯高呼今年加息概率为15%，英国资管巨头直言加息可能性达到20%。美国1月两大重磅通胀数据CPI和PPI均超预期，服务类通胀重燃，美联储官员“强硬表态”也让市场开始不断调整将息预期。而现在更极端的情况出现了，美国前财政部长萨默斯与多家华尔街投行接连发出“加息”的呼声，投资者今年又要被打脸了？过去两年里，金融市场出现了几次“虚假的曙光”，习惯了长期宽松货币时代的投资者一直预测美联储将“转向”，结果却被打了一次又一次脸。但自去年12月，美联储主席杰鲍威尔突然转向后，整个华尔街又开始大举押注降息真的快要来了。但近期美联储货币政策让经济承压的同时，“抗通胀”进程意外颠簸。2月16日，作为美国高通胀的吹哨人，萨默斯在接受采访时表示直言，美联储下一步很有可能是上调利率，而不是下调利率，这一概率为15%。”他认为，美联储的举动必须“非常小心”。不仅仅是萨默斯，多家华尔街投行也让投资者警惕美联储加息的风险，法国兴业银行分析师Kit Juckes认为，美联储“没有理由急于”降息，如果美国经济重新加速增长，那么美联储下一次的利率决议可能是加息而非降息。英国资管巨头Jupiter Asset Management宏观基金经理Mark Nash认为，美联储加息而不是降息的可能性达到20%，他认为强劲的消费需求和公司可能加大支出的前景或再次加剧通胀风险：“如果有大量的资本需求，支出也很大，且通胀高于目标，美联储将不得不进一步调高利率，”他说。“这不是一个巨大的风险，但也不容忽视。”德意志银行美国经济团队在上周的一份研究报告中提出，与FOMC的预测相比，美国经济未来可能面临更低的失业率以及更缓慢的通胀降温速度，这或许会让美联储在今年保持利率不变，且这种结果发生的概率并不低。市场不断推迟将息预期今年以来，对美联储降息的押注一直是华尔街投行们策略走向的关键。去年12月，当美联储主席杰鲍威尔突然转向，交易员又开始押注美联储将会大幅降息，最早从3月开始，降息幅度最高达到了175个基点，这与美联储所暗示的降息3次，每次25个基点有差别巨大。但由于近期数据显示美国“去通胀”波折不断，同时美国经济看起来仍具韧性，市场对美联储降息时间表的预期也被不断推迟。目前，美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储的首次降息更可能发生在6月，概率为53.7%；而3月降息的可能性已经从一个月前的55%左右降至10%，3月维持利率不变的概率则高达90%。美联储会再次打脸市场吗？一方面，美国未来抗通胀之路崎岖不平。美国1月CPI同比上涨3.1%，PPI同比上涨0.9%，均高于市场预期。萨默斯提到这两项主要通胀指标时指出，美国经济“软着陆”的设想目前面临威胁。从结构来看，1月核心通胀下行受阻的根源在于核心服务。1月核心服务通胀同比为5.4%，较2023年12月上行0.1个百分点，环比上行0.3个百分点至0.7%。核心服务通胀成了阻碍核心通胀下降的关键因素。而最重要的原因就是租金通胀。1月主要居住租金和业主等价租金同比继续回落；但主要居住租金通胀环比持平0.4%，业主等价租金通胀环比扩大至0.6%，为2023年4月以来高点。萨默斯表示，一段时间以来，经济学家们的主要预期是，住房成本将成为总体价格指标中的一个重要的压低通胀的因素。然而，这尚未实现。同时除住房外的服务通胀压力也较大。1月除住房外的服务通胀环比为0.6%，为2022年9月以来高点。萨默斯认为，2024年“去通胀”路径将仍有波折。萨默斯指出，在通胀仍是问题的情况下，美联储不会愿意过早冒险放松政策，他比喻道：“当医生给你开抗生素时，对此你最糟糕的做法就是只接受部分抗生素治疗，感觉好些了之后就不用了，而正是因为你不喜欢服药就提早放弃抗生素治疗，你的疾病往往会复发，而且在复发之后往往更难康复。”另一方面，美国经济和劳动力市场似乎仍具韧性。1月非农报告显示就业人数超预期激增，显示劳动力市场依旧火热，经济增长势头强劲。此前，美国2023年GDP增速等一系列经济数据也疯狂打脸“美国经济很快步入衰退”的说法。Kit Juckes在报告中写道，如果美国经济重新加速，美联储最终将不得不再次加息，美元将会上涨：即使目前市场对加息的可能性定价为零，加息的风险也开始在蔓延。美联储如果再次加息，美元指数预计将逼近历史最高点。此外，有分析师指出，市场总是提前判断美联储的转向。全球对冲基金和投资组合经理合作的宏观咨询公司Stray Reflections的创始人贾瓦德·米安(Jawad Mian)在一份报告中指出，还记得2008-2009年，为了对抗经济衰退，美联储将联邦基金利率降至接近零的水平，但市场早早预期美联储要开始加息，但这种极低的利率环境持续了很长时间，直到2015年12月美联储才开始加息，这是自金融危机以来的首次加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}