个人中心 - 老虎社区

专注期货

左侧交易，顺大逆小，凯利公式

IP属地：0

帖子 · 62帖子 · 62
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-11-08
  $美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$长到120以上
  2,873 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-08-21
  $美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$不会涨到120吧？
  2,495 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-08-17
  等着美国被罚款吧？拼多多套路在美国行不通！美国消费者不是中国消费者好忽悠的！
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  4,636 3
  1
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-07-20
  $微型铜2209(MHG2209)$现在可以玩微型铜了，下个月入金。
  2,383 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-07-15
  **才相信
  美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！
  华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！
  美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！
  2,438 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-06-29
  $微型SP500指数2209(MES2209)$大熊市到2024年2000点以下。
  2,748 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-05-12
  $NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 2024年之前，下跌4000点以下！
  2,458 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-05-07
  我如何才能证明验证自己期货交易系统能否长期盈利？听说最少要经过一个牛熊周期才能证明。如果通过实战需要几年或者10多年，比如美股最近牛熊周期长达14年（如果今年是熊市的开始）。时间太长了，人生有几个14年来验证啊？
  2,683 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-04-27
  $A50指数主连 2205(CNmain)$ 没有散户在这里发言啊？
  2,981 2
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 专注期货专注期货
  ·2022-04-27
  $NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 2024年前，下跌80%以下。
  5,389 4
  3
  分享
  举报
暂无粉丝

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3434601917282356","uuid":"3434601917282356","gmtCreate":1471700655466,"gmtModify":1673538407872,"name":"专注期货","pinyin":"zzqhzhuanzhuqihuo","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"左侧交易，顺大逆小，凯利公式","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":191,"headSize":34,"tweetSize":62,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":5,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":13,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-2","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识探索家","description":"观看学堂课程满20节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cc10a4789c3eaa019b225a55136cf9","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f0cbf3ae1b0a4593ddb3434df74ce0","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.54%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.49%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"0","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":664833386,"gmtCreate":1667911128846,"gmtModify":1667911130064,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a>长到120以上","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a>长到120以上","text":"$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$长到120以上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664833386","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687268901,"gmtCreate":1661079683606,"gmtModify":1661079683606,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a>不会涨到120吧？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a>不会涨到120吧？","text":"$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$不会涨到120吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687268901","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687949999,"gmtCreate":1660724771217,"gmtModify":1660727315198,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等着美国被罚款吧？拼多多套路在美国行不通！美国消费者不是中国消费者好忽悠的！","listText":"等着美国被罚款吧？拼多多套路在美国行不通！美国消费者不是中国消费者好忽悠的！","text":"等着美国被罚款吧？拼多多套路在美国行不通！美国消费者不是中国消费者好忽悠的！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687949999","repostId":"1130583336","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686219542,"gmtCreate":1658330973889,"gmtModify":1704869666115,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MHG2209\">$微型铜2209(MHG2209)$</a>现在可以玩微型铜了，下个月入金。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MHG2209\">$微型铜2209(MHG2209)$</a>现在可以玩微型铜了，下个月入金。","text":"$微型铜2209(MHG2209)$现在可以玩微型铜了，下个月入金。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12612dfbc53183959d399f348d9ee4c5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686219542","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688722826,"gmtCreate":1657861662670,"gmtModify":1704868512738,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**才相信","listText":"**才相信","text":"**才相信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688722826","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174033197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：叶桢</p><p>隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。</p><p>周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。</p><p>Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。</p><p>Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。</p><p>那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？</p><p>明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表</p><p>周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，<b>大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。</b></p><p>同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：</p><blockquote>鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：</p><blockquote>因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。</blockquote><p>Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：</p><blockquote>美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率&#34;正常化&#34;，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。</blockquote><p>Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:</p><blockquote>由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。</blockquote><p>至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：</p><blockquote>与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股隔夜大逆转背后：前官员预测美联储“转向”时间！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 11:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683729357,"gmtCreate":1656512900382,"gmtModify":1704865081886,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MES2209\">$微型SP500指数2209(MES2209)$</a>大熊市到2024年2000点以下。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MES2209\">$微型SP500指数2209(MES2209)$</a>大熊市到2024年2000点以下。","text":"$微型SP500指数2209(MES2209)$大熊市到2024年2000点以下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6372502982b0b13e2d46913838636451","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683729357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612690246,"gmtCreate":1652299881285,"gmtModify":1652299881285,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>2024年之前，下跌4000点以下！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>2024年之前，下跌4000点以下！","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 2024年之前，下跌4000点以下！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612690246","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616450903,"gmtCreate":1651903861502,"gmtModify":1651904685835,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我如何才能证明验证自己期货交易系统能否长期盈利？听说最少要经过一个牛熊周期才能证明。如果通过实战需要几年或者10多年，比如美股最近牛熊周期长达14年（如果今年是熊市的开始）。时间太长了，人生有几个14年来验证啊？","listText":"我如何才能证明验证自己期货交易系统能否长期盈利？听说最少要经过一个牛熊周期才能证明。如果通过实战需要几年或者10多年，比如美股最近牛熊周期长达14年（如果今年是熊市的开始）。时间太长了，人生有几个14年来验证啊？","text":"我如何才能证明验证自己期货交易系统能否长期盈利？听说最少要经过一个牛熊周期才能证明。如果通过实战需要几年或者10多年，比如美股最近牛熊周期长达14年（如果今年是熊市的开始）。时间太长了，人生有几个14年来验证啊？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616450903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618506993,"gmtCreate":1651074025616,"gmtModify":1651074025616,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2205(CNmain)$ &nbsp;</a>没有散户在这里发言啊？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2205(CNmain)$ &nbsp;</a>没有散户在这里发言啊？","text":"$A50指数主连 2205(CNmain)$ 没有散户在这里发言啊？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618506993","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618233806,"gmtCreate":1651045169822,"gmtModify":1651045169822,"author":{"id":"3434601917282356","authorId":"3434601917282356","name":"专注期货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae81b960085a4f72191d371e4c0fbd4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434601917282356","idStr":"3434601917282356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>2024年前，下跌80%以下。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>2024年前，下跌80%以下。","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 2024年前，下跌80%以下。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618233806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3444016586296070","authorId":"3444016586296070","name":"哈利波特長","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3444016586296070","idStr":"3444016586296070"},"content":"又疯了一个，印度男孩说了5月经济开始恢复，今年年底疫情开始好转","text":"又疯了一个，印度男孩说了5月经济开始恢复，今年年底疫情开始好转","html":"又疯了一个，印度男孩说了5月经济开始恢复，今年年底疫情开始好转"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}