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社长从来不假装
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
·
08-25
不是兴奋过头了,是垃圾美联储不装了,继续放水继续嗨
都在欢庆9月降息,鲍威尔的讲话真有这么“鸽派”吗?
Jonathan Levin认为,市场对鲍威尔讲话的鸽派解读可能有些过度,实际上,鲍威尔讲话的核心信息并非无条件的宽松,他的言外之意是如果美联储真的降息,其原因可能是经济陷入了麻烦,央行不得不出手干预,而非因为通胀降温。
都在欢庆9月降息,鲍威尔的讲话真有这么“鸽派”吗?
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
·
2022-05-17
不管怎么洗地,美联储被操控这个事实,已经显现出来了。去年我就说了美国通胀爆表了,但美联储无动于衷,反而数据造假
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2022-05-10
一群吸血鬼,去年我就说通胀爆表了,这一切都来自美联储的超级大放水
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2022-03-15
美联储已经明显被操控的
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2022-01-31
都待宰的羔羊,美联储这群吸血鬼已经被深层政府所控制,早已失去独立性
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2021-11-25
美联储处于被操控状态,已经失去了独立的决策力了
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2021-10-19
这次超级通胀,这个垃圾功不可没…
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
·
2021-06-11
美联储早就被操控了.
美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?
美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。 美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐
美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2021-05-11
垃圾中的战斗机…通胀那么严重
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社长从来不假装
社长从来不假装
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2021-04-28
美国通胀何止百分之2.美联储在装瞎
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id=\"id_1985956213\">双重目标下的艰难抉择</h2><p>文章指出,当通胀率在2022年飙升至9.1%时,美联储的目标非常明确,政策共识也相对容易达成。但如今,政策制定者面临的局面要复杂得多。</p><p>鲍威尔也在讲话中强调:</p><blockquote><p>“当我们的目标像这样处于紧张状态时,我们的框架要求我们平衡双重使命的两个方面。”</p></blockquote><p>Levin解释称,一方面,尽管失业率处于低位,但劳动力市场数据已开始动摇。另一方面,通胀率仍略高于美联储2%的目标。</p><p>文章援引鲍威尔的讲话称,“我们的政策利率现在比一年前更接近中性水平100个基点”,<strong>这使得美联储可以“谨慎行事”。但他同时警告,“货币政策并未设定在预设的轨道上”。</strong></p><p>这种政策上的分歧在美联储内部已经显现。7月份将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的决定,引发了两位理事的反对,这是自1992年以来首次出现的情况,凸显了在如何解读当前经济数据上的巨大分歧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1119758467\">劳动力市场的下行风险</h2><p>文章强调,市场欢呼降息的背后,一个被忽视的关键点是:美联储降息的主要动机,可能源于对经济恶化的担忧。</p><p>在周五的讲话中,鲍威尔特别指出,<strong>当前劳动力市场处于一种“奇特的平衡”,即劳动力供给和需求同时显著放缓,这部分是由于移民政策收紧所致。</strong></p><p>鲍威尔对此直言不讳:</p><blockquote><p>“这种不寻常的情况表明,就业的下行风险正在上升。如果这些风险成为现实,它们可能会以裁员急剧增加和失业率上升的形式迅速出现。”</p></blockquote><p>换言之,<strong>降息将是一种防御性举措,而非经济强劲的胜利宣言。</strong></p><p>文章指出,支持这一担忧的还有其他数据。鲍威尔提到,今年上半年美国的GDP增速仅为2024年的一半左右,部分原因是消费者支出放缓。这与股市持续牛市的基础并不相符。</p><h2 id=\"id_258839159\">通胀难题悬而未决</h2><p>在担忧就业市场的同时,通胀风险依然存在。</p><p>文章称,许多经济学家持续担心,特朗普推行的关税政策将在未来数月乃至数个季度推高商品价格。尽管目前影响尚显温和,但业内人士预计,当2026年款新车上市时,价格上涨的压力将真正显现。</p><p>如何应对关税带来的价格冲击,本身就是一个激烈辩论的话题。鸽派人士认为,决策者应忽略这种“一次性的”价格水平变化;而鹰派则担心,在已经忍受了近五年高通胀的背景下,这可能会加剧通胀预期的失控。</p><p>Levin认为,<strong>鲍威尔本人似乎倾向于“忽略”关税影响的阵营,这可能是他讲话中为数不多的偏鸽派的细微信号。</strong>但他同时明确警告,“我们不能理所当然地认为通胀预期会保持稳定”,并承认了这方面的担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_2039889512\">市场反应可能过度</h2><p>文章最后强调,<strong>市场对鲍威尔讲话的鸽派解读可能有些过度,或者是因为投资者此前普遍预期其立场会更加强硬,从而导致了头寸调整。实际情况远比这平淡,但对于当前的经济形势而言却完全恰当。</strong></p><p>在政策挑战之外,鲍威尔的讲话也巧妙地回避了来自特朗普要求其大幅降息的政治压力。从任何角度看,鲍威尔的讲话都没有屈服于压力的迹象。</p><p>Levin表示,基于现有数据,美联储看起来准备最早在下月降息,并在此后恢复摸索支持可持续增长和低通胀的适当利率水平。<strong>但前景仍高度不确定,政策宽松进程可能比市场预期更加缓慢。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n都在欢庆9月降息,鲍威尔的讲话真有这么“鸽派”吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-25 12:08 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754014><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Jonathan Levin认为,市场对鲍威尔讲话的鸽派解读可能有些过度,实际上,鲍威尔讲话的核心信息并非无条件的宽松,他的言外之意是如果美联储真的降息,其原因可能是经济陷入了麻烦,央行不得不出手干预,而非因为通胀降温。上周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话,被普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号,这一表态瞬间点燃了市场热情,美股再创历史新高。然而,美国经济学家、斯坦福大学校长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754014\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754014","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2562295878","content_text":"Jonathan Levin认为,市场对鲍威尔讲话的鸽派解读可能有些过度,实际上,鲍威尔讲话的核心信息并非无条件的宽松,他的言外之意是如果美联储真的降息,其原因可能是经济陷入了麻烦,央行不得不出手干预,而非因为通胀降温。上周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话,被普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号,这一表态瞬间点燃了市场热情,美股再创历史新高。然而,美国经济学家、斯坦福大学校长Jonathan Levin周六在彭博专栏撰文表示,深入解读鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话,会发现其核心信息并非无条件的宽松,而是在一个充满迷雾的经济环境中,艰难地权衡着劳动力市场萎靡与通胀高企的双重风险。Levin表示,市场周五狂欢式的反应,很大程度上忽略了鲍威尔讲话中关键的微妙之处。他强调,如果美联储真的降息,其原因可能是经济陷入了麻烦,央行不得不出手干预,而非因为通胀降温。这层意味深长的背景,被市场的第一反应所淹没。文章强调,鲍威尔在讲话中坦承,决策者正面临一项棘手的任务,即在促进充分就业和维持物价稳定的双重使命之间取得平衡。这种政策上的两难境地,预示着未来的降息路径可能比市场预期的更为缓慢和不确定。双重目标下的艰难抉择文章指出,当通胀率在2022年飙升至9.1%时,美联储的目标非常明确,政策共识也相对容易达成。但如今,政策制定者面临的局面要复杂得多。鲍威尔也在讲话中强调:“当我们的目标像这样处于紧张状态时,我们的框架要求我们平衡双重使命的两个方面。”Levin解释称,一方面,尽管失业率处于低位,但劳动力市场数据已开始动摇。另一方面,通胀率仍略高于美联储2%的目标。文章援引鲍威尔的讲话称,“我们的政策利率现在比一年前更接近中性水平100个基点”,这使得美联储可以“谨慎行事”。但他同时警告,“货币政策并未设定在预设的轨道上”。这种政策上的分歧在美联储内部已经显现。7月份将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的决定,引发了两位理事的反对,这是自1992年以来首次出现的情况,凸显了在如何解读当前经济数据上的巨大分歧。劳动力市场的下行风险文章强调,市场欢呼降息的背后,一个被忽视的关键点是:美联储降息的主要动机,可能源于对经济恶化的担忧。在周五的讲话中,鲍威尔特别指出,当前劳动力市场处于一种“奇特的平衡”,即劳动力供给和需求同时显著放缓,这部分是由于移民政策收紧所致。鲍威尔对此直言不讳:“这种不寻常的情况表明,就业的下行风险正在上升。如果这些风险成为现实,它们可能会以裁员急剧增加和失业率上升的形式迅速出现。”换言之,降息将是一种防御性举措,而非经济强劲的胜利宣言。文章指出,支持这一担忧的还有其他数据。鲍威尔提到,今年上半年美国的GDP增速仅为2024年的一半左右,部分原因是消费者支出放缓。这与股市持续牛市的基础并不相符。通胀难题悬而未决在担忧就业市场的同时,通胀风险依然存在。文章称,许多经济学家持续担心,特朗普推行的关税政策将在未来数月乃至数个季度推高商品价格。尽管目前影响尚显温和,但业内人士预计,当2026年款新车上市时,价格上涨的压力将真正显现。如何应对关税带来的价格冲击,本身就是一个激烈辩论的话题。鸽派人士认为,决策者应忽略这种“一次性的”价格水平变化;而鹰派则担心,在已经忍受了近五年高通胀的背景下,这可能会加剧通胀预期的失控。Levin认为,鲍威尔本人似乎倾向于“忽略”关税影响的阵营,这可能是他讲话中为数不多的偏鸽派的细微信号。但他同时明确警告,“我们不能理所当然地认为通胀预期会保持稳定”,并承认了这方面的担忧。市场反应可能过度文章最后强调,市场对鲍威尔讲话的鸽派解读可能有些过度,或者是因为投资者此前普遍预期其立场会更加强硬,从而导致了头寸调整。实际情况远比这平淡,但对于当前的经济形势而言却完全恰当。在政策挑战之外,鲍威尔的讲话也巧妙地回避了来自特朗普要求其大幅降息的政治压力。从任何角度看,鲍威尔的讲话都没有屈服于压力的迹象。Levin表示,基于现有数据,美联储看起来准备最早在下月降息,并在此后恢复摸索支持可持续增长和低通胀的适当利率水平。但前景仍高度不确定,政策宽松进程可能比市场预期更加缓慢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"content":"大哥太牛逼了,美联储应该让你去当主席","text":"大哥太牛逼了,美联储应该让你去当主席","html":"大哥太牛逼了,美联储应该让你去当主席"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615986591,"gmtCreate":1652745185613,"gmtModify":1652751209012,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不管怎么洗地,美联储被操控这个事实,已经显现出来了。去年我就说了美国通胀爆表了,但美联储无动于衷,反而数据造假","listText":"不管怎么洗地,美联储被操控这个事实,已经显现出来了。去年我就说了美国通胀爆表了,但美联储无动于衷,反而数据造假","text":"不管怎么洗地,美联储被操控这个事实,已经显现出来了。去年我就说了美国通胀爆表了,但美联储无动于衷,反而数据造假","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615986591","repostId":"2236592912","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612966497,"gmtCreate":1652142850719,"gmtModify":1652146400382,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一群吸血鬼,去年我就说通胀爆表了,这一切都来自美联储的超级大放水","listText":"一群吸血鬼,去年我就说通胀爆表了,这一切都来自美联储的超级大放水","text":"一群吸血鬼,去年我就说通胀爆表了,这一切都来自美联储的超级大放水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612966497","repostId":"2234688177","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634020312,"gmtCreate":1647299274965,"gmtModify":1647308850250,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美联储已经明显被操控的","listText":"美联储已经明显被操控的","text":"美联储已经明显被操控的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634020312","repostId":"2219209224","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633083544,"gmtCreate":1643584565056,"gmtModify":1643590368669,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都待宰的羔羊,美联储这群吸血鬼已经被深层政府所控制,早已失去独立性","listText":"都待宰的羔羊,美联储这群吸血鬼已经被深层政府所控制,早已失去独立性","text":"都待宰的羔羊,美联储这群吸血鬼已经被深层政府所控制,早已失去独立性","images":[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11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐","content":"<blockquote>\n 美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">潘多拉</a>魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。</p>\n<p>然而,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!</p>\n<p>在她看来,<b>随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服,未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。</b></p>\n<p>美国银行表示,在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际,市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险,反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失,届时失业福利将减少,儿童保育更好找,对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖,需求从商品转向服务,瓶颈就将逐渐消失;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退,劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速,贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨,而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升,涨势也将消退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 5、从定义出发,价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高,因为产出缺口仍旧存在,而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事,因为这有助于缩小收入差距;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 7、近年来,薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝,而非哀叹工资上涨;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 8、从定义出发,薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长,因为失业率仍旧太高,无法产生持续的薪资压力;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升,但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应;当这两大价格走低时,通胀预期也会消退;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 10、从历史上看,只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后,通胀预期才会走高;最近的上涨一定是侥幸;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升,如果真的存在问题,债市会告诉我们一切;\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查,对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为,长期来看,通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国银行还指出,最重要的一点在于,<b>市场相信“不要担心通胀过高,因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息,以此来冷却通胀”。</b></p>\n<p>对此,金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道:美联储行得很,不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀,还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。</p>\n<p>不过值得注意的是,市场的上述观点,多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么,美国银行在担心什么?</p>\n<p>Meyer认为,若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”,这并不合情理。最关键的地方是,<b>这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月,并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。</b></p>\n<p>她还称,考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明,他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高,上述可能性就变得非常之大。</p>\n<p>对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法,美国银行也并不认同:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近几十年来,我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n <b>但历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>此外,美联储已经承诺,加息将比常态情况下来得更晚,且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。</p>\n<p>这也就意味着,美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难,但如果有意外发生,加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早,那么对于市场而言,一切就已经太晚了。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银“打脸”美联储:哪有什么“暂时性”通胀?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-11 11:17 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。\n然而,美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!\n在她看来,随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样,可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上?美银不同意:“历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了,但市场似乎已经无所畏惧,美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞:通胀嘛,只是暂时走高而已。\n然而,美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言:我们不买账!\n在她看来,随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现,美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服,未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示,在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际,市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险,反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口:\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失,届时失业福利将减少,儿童保育更好找,对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退;\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖,需求从商品转向服务,瓶颈就将逐渐消失;\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退,劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速,贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解;\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨,而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升,涨势也将消退;\n\n\n 5、从定义出发,价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高,因为产出缺口仍旧存在,而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失;\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事,因为这有助于缩小收入差距;\n\n\n 7、近年来,薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝,而非哀叹工资上涨;\n\n\n 8、从定义出发,薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长,因为失业率仍旧太高,无法产生持续的薪资压力;\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升,但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应;当这两大价格走低时,通胀预期也会消退;\n\n\n 10、从历史上看,只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后,通胀预期才会走高;最近的上涨一定是侥幸;\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升,如果真的存在问题,债市会告诉我们一切;\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查,对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为,长期来看,通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出,最重要的一点在于,市场相信“不要担心通胀过高,因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息,以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此,金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道:美联储行得很,不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀,还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是,市场的上述观点,多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么,美国银行在担心什么?\nMeyer认为,若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”,这并不合情理。最关键的地方是,这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月,并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称,考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明,他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高,上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法,美国银行也并不认同:\n\n 近几十年来,我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明,一旦通胀走高,就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外,美联储已经承诺,加息将比常态情况下来得更晚,且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着,美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难,但如果有意外发生,加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早,那么对于市场而言,一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199890421,"gmtCreate":1620693726863,"gmtModify":1620693726863,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾中的战斗机…通胀那么严重","listText":"垃圾中的战斗机…通胀那么严重","text":"垃圾中的战斗机…通胀那么严重","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199890421","repostId":"2134569816","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100597630,"gmtCreate":1619620247220,"gmtModify":1619620247220,"author":{"id":"3442802602287875","authorId":"3442802602287875","name":"社长从来不假装","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debb0e42ae5269f70e3ca82fabcbc936","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442802602287875","authorIdStr":"3442802602287875"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国通胀何止百分之2.美联储在装瞎","listText":"美国通胀何止百分之2.美联储在装瞎","text":"美国通胀何止百分之2.美联储在装瞎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100597630","repostId":"2130372326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}