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哈利波特長
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2023-01-08
可惜你说了不算
美联储已经明确告诉股市:不要大涨
市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎,只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹,将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午,美联储发布了1
美联储已经明确告诉股市:不要大涨
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2022-11-01
大反指说话了
华尔街齐声造势,小摩:加息周期将在2023年初结束
这一次,美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗?
华尔街齐声造势,小摩:加息周期将在2023年初结束
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2022-10-20
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
11月就要中期选举,我觉得下探的空间不大,年底的走势我觉得要么震荡行情要么就是反弹行情,12月正常来说还有圣诞行情,所以我没有很悲观年底的走势
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2022-10-18
华尔街的人说的话一句都不能信
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2022-10-14
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
难道11000是无敌金刚底?
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
·
2022-07-26
cpi爆雷9.1都暴涨还有什么不可能的,涨就完事了,最近的走势就是向上,中期选举过后可以跌了
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哈利波特長
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2022-07-19
苹果将会是市场最后一波暴跌的黑天鹅
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
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2022-07-15
真正的暴跌在20号以后,财报绝对爆雷
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哈利波特長
哈利波特長
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2022-05-09
$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$
现在整个市场都在唱衰美股,美股的泡沫已经破裂,反弹已经不远了,做空者需非常谨慎,个人觉得纳斯达克在11000左右应该会开启新的牛市
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哈利波特長
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2022-05-06
$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$
这么下去真有可能破12000
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class=\"title\">\n美联储已经明确告诉股市:不要大涨 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-08 12:11 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎,只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹,将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午,美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到,与会者指出,由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用,所以金融环境不合理的放松(unwarranted easing),特别是因公众误解(FOMC)委员会反应功能而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175436624","content_text":"市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎,只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹,将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午,美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到,与会者指出,由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用,所以金融环境不合理的放松(unwarranted easing),特别是因公众误解(FOMC)委员会反应功能而驱动的放松,将让委员会恢复价格稳定的努力变得复杂。这被分析师和经济学家视为对金融市场参与者的警告,即对美联储在2023年进行政策转向的押注并不受政策制定者的欢迎;而且,在股市反弹甚至整体金融条件放松的情况下,这些押注只会迫使FOMC把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。Navellier & Associates总裁兼创始人 Louis Navellier 在周四的一份报告中表示:用通俗点的话来说,美联储暗示,FOMC成员们不喜欢股市上涨,因为他们担心这可能导致潜在的消费者支出通胀。BMO 资本市场利率策略师 Ian Lyngen 和 Benjamin Jeffery 在周三的一份报告中写道:“会议纪要显示,美联储又在刻意劝阻市场不要相信美联储将在2023年触发看跌期权。”当楼市或者资本市场出现大动荡,资产价格大幅下跌的时候,美联储对市场注入流动性避免出现危机,这种现象被“美联储看跌期权”。自上世纪80年代末以来,数千名交易员、投资者和分析师都习惯了美联储看跌期权,他们相信,在动荡时刻,政策制定者总是会通过缩减加息计划或直接降息来支撑市场,因此,许多投资者总是会逢低买入。国会证券管理公司(Capitol Securities Management)首席经济策略师 Kent Engelke 在周四的一份报告中表示,这份会议纪要清楚地表明,“众所周知的美联储看跌期权机制已经正式消亡”。周五,美股大涨,道琼斯工业指数上涨2.1%,标普500指数上涨2.28%,纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.6%;另外,美国12月非农就业报告显示,工资增长意外放缓,ISM服务业指数跌至收缩区间。一些市场观察人士想知道,美联储政策制定者会对市场的反应有何反应。目前,美债收益率继续下跌,市场对美联储2月1日加息25个基点的押注从有所提高。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)经济学家 Carl Riccadonna、Yelena Shulyatyeva 和 Andrew Schneider 认为,这份非农就业报告在一定程度上缓解了美联储在2月1日加息50个基点的压力,但政策制定者似乎对市场定价越来越没有耐心,因为美联储与市场在联邦基金利率的峰值和首次降息时机方面存在分歧。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Ryan Sweet 在周三的一份报告中表示:会议纪要明确强调了美联储对通胀的关注,但也强调了他们对金融市场状况开始松动的不满,他们认为这阻碍了他们实现价格稳定的努力。从会议纪要中可以看出,美联储将冒着伤害劳动力市场和更广泛经济的风险降低通胀。Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席经济学家 Ian Shepherdson 也认为,美联储提到金融状况是为了传达一种信息,即投资者不应指望政策制定者在经济数据出现明显的重大转变之前,会放松通胀底线。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665652587,"gmtCreate":1667278615849,"gmtModify":1667278618429,"author":{"id":"3444016586296070","authorId":"3444016586296070","name":"哈利波特長","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3444016586296070","authorIdStr":"3444016586296070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大反指说话了","listText":"大反指说话了","text":"大反指说话了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665652587","repostId":"1177705687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177705687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667263743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177705687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-01 08:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街齐声造势,小摩:加息周期将在2023年初结束","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177705687","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一次,美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗?","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>这一次,美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗?</blockquote><p>越来越多的华尔街分析师加入了认为美联储即将转向的队伍。</p><p>本周,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在内的策略分析师都在报告中表示,美联储的加息行动即将结束。</p><p>曾经作为华尔街最大看跌分析师之一的摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson在周一的报告中表示,包括美股反弹、10年期和3个月期国债收益率曲线倒挂在内的指标“都支持美联储尽早调整政策,而不是推迟”:</p><blockquote>在周期接近尾声时,(反弹)这种价格走势并不罕见,特别是在美联储收紧政策行动接近尾声之际,(因此)我们认为美联储正在接近尾声。</blockquote><blockquote>因此,本周的美联储会议对加息的继续、暂停甚至完全结束至关重要。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02737c23a5a2f650c93c74b07298a0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另一边,摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic也在本周的报告中预计,美联储可能会在12月加息50基点,在明年一季度再加息25基点后暂停加息:</p><blockquote>欧洲央行态度的转变、英国财政压力的缓解以及加拿大和澳大利亚加息步伐的放缓,增强了人们的乐观情绪,我们认为全球紧缩周期可能在2023年初结束。</blockquote><blockquote>风险市场的一个重要支撑来自以下信号:美联储的收紧步伐已见顶,此后任何进一步加息的规模可能都将变小。</blockquote><p>与Wilson不同的是,Kolanovic此前一直是华尔街最大的多头分析师之一。</p><p>但现在,“大空头”与“大多头”观点开始统一。</p><p>不过,这些策略师也表示,放松紧缩步伐并不意味着全球央行将放松对抗通胀的力度。<b>要实现放松紧缩,就需要消费者的价格压力继续下降。</b></p><p>彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出,目前全球CPI扩散指数处于最高值,该指数反映了全球通胀处于上升趋势的国家的比例,而此前仅在1974年和2008年两次达到该水平,并且达到后迅速开始下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac8cd063cb08ad5e8f2df02e1fa4aef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>现在,市场的目光都将集中在美联储身上。<b>市场普遍预计美联储将在本周三第四次加息75基点,而美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也将对市场之后的走向至关重要。</b></p><p>过去两周,美国大型科技股的惨淡业绩使得标普500指数一度跌17%,纳指跌近22%,但随着之后分析师们预测美联储即将转向,美股出现反弹。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师认为,美联储收紧步伐可能放缓、仓位较轻以及对第四季度季节性因素强劲的预期是最近几周美股反弹的背后原因。</p><blockquote>在1970年以来的17次熊市反弹中,标准普尔500指数在44天内平均上涨了15%。</blockquote><p>然而,此前美股每次燃起希望,最终都被鹰派央行所浇灭,这一次呢?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00ff4a8809dfd3061b2ab28faaa769a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街齐声造势,小摩:加息周期将在2023年初结束</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街齐声造势,小摩:加息周期将在2023年初结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-01 08:49 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这一次,美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗?越来越多的华尔街分析师加入了认为美联储即将转向的队伍。本周,包括摩根士丹利和摩根大通在内的策略分析师都在报告中表示,美联储的加息行动即将结束。曾经作为华尔街最大看跌分析师之一的摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson在周一的报告中表示,包括美股反弹、10年期和3个月期国债收益率曲线倒挂在内的指标“都支持美联储尽早调整政策,而不是推迟”:在周期接近尾声时,(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177705687","content_text":"这一次,美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗?越来越多的华尔街分析师加入了认为美联储即将转向的队伍。本周,包括摩根士丹利和摩根大通在内的策略分析师都在报告中表示,美联储的加息行动即将结束。曾经作为华尔街最大看跌分析师之一的摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson在周一的报告中表示,包括美股反弹、10年期和3个月期国债收益率曲线倒挂在内的指标“都支持美联储尽早调整政策,而不是推迟”:在周期接近尾声时,(反弹)这种价格走势并不罕见,特别是在美联储收紧政策行动接近尾声之际,(因此)我们认为美联储正在接近尾声。因此,本周的美联储会议对加息的继续、暂停甚至完全结束至关重要。另一边,摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic也在本周的报告中预计,美联储可能会在12月加息50基点,在明年一季度再加息25基点后暂停加息:欧洲央行态度的转变、英国财政压力的缓解以及加拿大和澳大利亚加息步伐的放缓,增强了人们的乐观情绪,我们认为全球紧缩周期可能在2023年初结束。风险市场的一个重要支撑来自以下信号:美联储的收紧步伐已见顶,此后任何进一步加息的规模可能都将变小。与Wilson不同的是,Kolanovic此前一直是华尔街最大的多头分析师之一。但现在,“大空头”与“大多头”观点开始统一。不过,这些策略师也表示,放松紧缩步伐并不意味着全球央行将放松对抗通胀的力度。要实现放松紧缩,就需要消费者的价格压力继续下降。彭博宏观策略师Simon 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