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wky
wky
·
2024-10-03
$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$
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wky
wky
·
2024-10-03
$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$
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wky
wky
·
2024-10-02
$UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL$
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wky
wky
·
2024-09-18
不是covered call ？
@Z先生2021：
$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ 我开仓了$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ ,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股
$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ 我开仓了$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ ,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股
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wky
wky
·
2024-09-06
$TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT$
尝试做空纳指
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wky
wky
·
2024-06-24
$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$
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wky
wky
·
2023-11-11
夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货
空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸
美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤，净空头仓位基本达到历史极高。
空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸
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wky
wky
·
2022-09-01
波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的 没人玩了
华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏
在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周
华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏
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wky
wky
·
2022-08-17
偏空 预计小跌
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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wky
wky
·
2022-03-16
这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356017702756624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355622671167728,"gmtCreate":1727831469318,"gmtModify":1727831958621,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL\">$UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL\">$UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL$</a> ","text":"$UVXY 20241018 40.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32861f4ac97a7da109599f4f397a9c7","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355622671167728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350793109967032,"gmtCreate":1726668334830,"gmtModify":1726668336605,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不是covered call ？","listText":"不是covered call ？","text":"不是covered call ？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350793109967032","repostId":"350790904955152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":350790904955152,"gmtCreate":1726667797190,"gmtModify":1732092571005,"author":{"id":"4165037302708470","authorId":"4165037302708470","name":"Z先生2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a7bc27d6c37e837d42cde4384da13","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4165037302708470","idStr":"4165037302708470"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT\">$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ </a>我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT\">$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ </a>,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT\">$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ </a>我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT\">$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ </a>,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股","text":"$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ 我开仓了$TLT 20241018 98.0 PUT$ ,持有正股，但是之前卖出的TLT 20240930 98 CALL大概率会被行权，卖出同等数量的PUT增加一点盈利，而且98的价格也不怕接正股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350790904955152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165037302708470","authorId":"4165037302708470","name":"Z先生2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a7bc27d6c37e837d42cde4384da13","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4165037302708470","idStr":"4165037302708470"},"content":"是covered call，有正股备兑的","text":"是covered call，有正股备兑的","html":"是covered call，有正股备兑的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346421960179816,"gmtCreate":1725612961385,"gmtModify":1725613501689,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT\">$TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT$</a> 尝试做空纳指","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT\">$TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT$</a> 尝试做空纳指","text":"$TQQQ 20241220 60.0 PUT$ 尝试做空纳指","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45065ee094d41b48a53e6a25141b9b7f","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346421960179816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320216055419032,"gmtCreate":1719207984358,"gmtModify":1719208000040,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL\">$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL\">$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$</a> ","text":"$TLT 20240712 98.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2580b0a2a9d4e1672e8a58ed7aa7aae4","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320216055419032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":240151380930864,"gmtCreate":1699649240155,"gmtModify":1699649242223,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","listText":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","text":"夸大了空头 好多都是期现套利盘 ，目前市场长债现货利率高于期货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/240151380930864","repostId":"1123548071","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123548071","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1699350800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123548071?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-07 17:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123548071","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤，净空头仓位基本达到历史极高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，<strong>杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平</strong>。尽管现金债券上周出现反弹，但投资者的押注仍在继续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如麦格理集团驻新加坡策略师Gareth Berry表示，<strong>上周美国国债的空头头寸似乎达到了极端，而逼空行情是一场迟早会发生的“意外”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要注意的是，对冲基金在此之前已经<strong>增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸</strong>，而在国债收益率连续三天大幅下滑的背景下，<strong>国债流动性进一步恶化</strong>，数据显示，美国国债的流动性<strong>处于2010年以来最差水平</strong>（比2020年收益率崩溃的峰值更糟糕，当时美联储专门介入以确保流动性）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c767018c60b1878447c35f1e3c58f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在此前的研究报告中指出，对冲基金可能已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，此举对金融稳定构成风险。<strong>而基差交易的具体规模有多大，则连美联储也只能猜测。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807982cb1978e96f57cb4c644c7c0251\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储报告指出，当前情况似乎与2018年和2019年的情况相似</strong>：当时由于美联储加息提振了资产管理公司的对冲需求，对冲基金基差交易迅速增长。而当疫情爆发后，资金纷纷转向避险资产，并撤出基差交易，从而引发了债市失稳，迫使美联储承诺提供数万亿美元的刺激资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研究人员写道<strong>：如果基差交易头寸快速上升，那么对冲基金所持有的大量敞口将再度构成影响金融市场稳定的脆弱性因素。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_526832833\" style=\"text-align: start;\">一场“世纪对决”正在进行中</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻此前提及，10月底，美国国债利率攀升至十多年来的新高之际，市场对其未来走势的分歧达到了前所未有的程度，而美债收益率未来的大幅波动正关乎所有资产命运。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方观点认为，美国国债的“苦日子”还会继续，收益率将继续维持在历史高位，非商业投机投资者(ES）继续加大空头头寸。根据高盛数据统计，<strong>美国国债期货净空头头寸DV01规模仍处在创纪录的水平。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而另一方观点认为，美债收益率已经触顶，开始“抄底”美国长债，iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT）看涨期权的押注上周激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就在多空双方世纪对决进行之时，上周美国国债在美国财政部新一季再融资债券发行规模低于市场预期，且美联储暗示加息周期已经结束的双重利好下迎来了大反弹。</p><p>可是，当美债“咸鱼翻身”之时，位于高位的空头仓位或将出现平仓导致的大规模的踩踏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3316748545\" style=\"text-align: start;\">当史诗级的逼空行情出现或将出现踩踏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华创证券研究所副所长，首席宏观分析师张瑜做客华尔街见闻指出，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，张瑜认为，美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤。CBOT的10年美债净空头仓位，基本上达到历史极高，接下来一旦平仓就会形成踩踏，利率就会下得特别快：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说，对于现在短期美债，对于利率上行的押注，仓位已经非常极致。这是有数据以来最高的一次，上一次这么高是2018年的10月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以我们认为在四季度美债利率的波动率应该是大幅加大，并不是简单地看多和看空。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">张瑜认为，短期可能会看到美债利率可能会呈现一个大的N字形走势，十年美债短期或许可以再上行30-40个BP，因为多头现在仓位很小，可能会出现很多极端的资产价格定位：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以未来可能会看到美债利率有一个非常大的波动率，它其实是一个风险，因为你并不能判断它是多还是空，它可能是波动率的一个放大，有可能会带来美国回购市场上的短端资金利率的紧张，流动性紧张都是有可能的。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n空头创新高，流动性新低！“全球资产定价之锚”一点就炸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-07 17:53 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平。尽管现金债券...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadcfb88697d09bb90cb85e829df2277","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701440","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123548071","content_text":"“全球资产定价之锚”美国国债的流动性再度枯竭，在空头头寸位于新高的背景下，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，或将对金融稳定构成风险。11月6日，媒体报道称，就在美国财政部与美联储的双重好消息推动美债大幅上涨之前，对冲基金所持有的美国国债空头头寸增至创纪录水平。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月31日的最新数据显示，杠杆基金的美国国债期货净空头头寸增至2006年以来的最高水平。尽管现金债券上周出现反弹，但投资者的押注仍在继续。正如麦格理集团驻新加坡策略师Gareth Berry表示，上周美国国债的空头头寸似乎达到了极端，而逼空行情是一场迟早会发生的“意外”。需要注意的是，对冲基金在此之前已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，而在国债收益率连续三天大幅下滑的背景下，国债流动性进一步恶化，数据显示，美国国债的流动性处于2010年以来最差水平（比2020年收益率崩溃的峰值更糟糕，当时美联储专门介入以确保流动性）。美联储在此前的研究报告中指出，对冲基金可能已经增加了高杠杆国债基差交易头寸，此举对金融稳定构成风险。而基差交易的具体规模有多大，则连美联储也只能猜测。美联储报告指出，当前情况似乎与2018年和2019年的情况相似：当时由于美联储加息提振了资产管理公司的对冲需求，对冲基金基差交易迅速增长。而当疫情爆发后，资金纷纷转向避险资产，并撤出基差交易，从而引发了债市失稳，迫使美联储承诺提供数万亿美元的刺激资金。研究人员写道：如果基差交易头寸快速上升，那么对冲基金所持有的大量敞口将再度构成影响金融市场稳定的脆弱性因素。一场“世纪对决”正在进行中华尔街见闻此前提及，10月底，美国国债利率攀升至十多年来的新高之际，市场对其未来走势的分歧达到了前所未有的程度，而美债收益率未来的大幅波动正关乎所有资产命运。一方观点认为，美国国债的“苦日子”还会继续，收益率将继续维持在历史高位，非商业投机投资者(ES）继续加大空头头寸。根据高盛数据统计，美国国债期货净空头头寸DV01规模仍处在创纪录的水平。而另一方观点认为，美债收益率已经触顶，开始“抄底”美国长债，iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT）看涨期权的押注上周激增。就在多空双方世纪对决进行之时，上周美国国债在美国财政部新一季再融资债券发行规模低于市场预期，且美联储暗示加息周期已经结束的双重利好下迎来了大反弹。可是，当美债“咸鱼翻身”之时，位于高位的空头仓位或将出现平仓导致的大规模的踩踏。当史诗级的逼空行情出现或将出现踩踏华创证券研究所副所长，首席宏观分析师张瑜做客华尔街见闻指出，美债收益率短期可能出现较大波动，张瑜认为，美债现在的空头交易极度的拥挤。CBOT的10年美债净空头仓位，基本上达到历史极高，接下来一旦平仓就会形成踩踏，利率就会下得特别快：也就是说，对于现在短期美债，对于利率上行的押注，仓位已经非常极致。这是有数据以来最高的一次，上一次这么高是2018年的10月。所以我们认为在四季度美债利率的波动率应该是大幅加大，并不是简单地看多和看空。张瑜认为，短期可能会看到美债利率可能会呈现一个大的N字形走势，十年美债短期或许可以再上行30-40个BP，因为多头现在仓位很小，可能会出现很多极端的资产价格定位：所以未来可能会看到美债利率有一个非常大的波动率，它其实是一个风险，因为你并不能判断它是多还是空，它可能是波动率的一个放大，有可能会带来美国回购市场上的短端资金利率的紧张，流动性紧张都是有可能的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669041628,"gmtCreate":1662007197072,"gmtModify":1662007197072,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的 没人玩了","listText":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的 没人玩了","text":"波动这么大 而且上窜下跳的 没人玩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669041628","repostId":"1121784380","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121784380","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661990095,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121784380?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121784380","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。</blockquote><p>上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理Pierre Andurand也高呼油市出问题。</p><p>当地时间8月31日周三，Andurand发推称，石油期货市场已经被彻底破坏，没有任何明显原因，期货油价就能一天跌10美元。</p><p>Andurand质疑油市的前一天，本周二，国际原油期货自7月12日以来首次一日收跌逾5%，美国WTI原油盘中跌超6%，布伦特原油盘中甚至跌超7%，全数抹平周一反弹涨超4%所创的7月18日以来最大涨幅，周一才创7月末以来新高就跌至上周一以来低谷。</p><p>Andurand的质疑是华尔街最近再次指出油市的问题。</p><p>华尔街见闻稍早文章提到，将近两个月前，就有分析师发现，原油期货市场正因担心经济放缓而出现抛售，而现货市场看起来仍相当稳定，两者之间出现了错位。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>表示，石油金融市场正与极其紧张的实物市场严重脱节，实物市场的定价体现的是供应的稀缺性，而金融市场的定价体现的是经济衰退。这可能会产生一些混乱的信号。</p><p>自今年2月俄乌冲突升级以来，油价有十多天都出现了单日超过5美元的价格波动。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie等分析师最近在报告中解释，近期商品下跌主要是由期货市场和现货市场之间的脱节引起的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7d7d29b2052491cfcf300fbc1b358a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然这样的大幅波动过去被视为非正常现象，但在原油期货未平仓合约量处于七年来最低谷之际，大波动已经成为常态。渣打银行的报告称，上周四种主要布伦特和WTI合约的合计未平仓规模自2015年6月以来首次低于40亿桶。高盛最近报告指出，投机性的净多头仓位和商品的未平仓合约都在剧减。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00182b29aaccf3ac844edce86d001191\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>尽管如此，高盛仍然看好商品、尤其是石油，其最近报告将高盛GSCI和BCOM商品指数的总回报率预期分别上调至38.3%和13.6%。报告称，能源极度短缺的时代，石油是最后可以倚靠的大宗商品。由于缺乏流动性而被夸大的大宗商品市场疲软，反而是一个很有吸引力的入手点。</p><p>同时高盛指出，宏观形势仍然具有挑战性，美元短期内可能进一步上涨。其中提到的最大风险包括投资者因波动性上升、追加保证金而进行的大规模金融清算，以及对经济衰退的担忧最终会引发价格下跌。因此不能完全排除再次出现流动性驱动的抛售。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街再次警告油市问题，明星基金经理高呼市场被彻底破坏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 07:54 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","RY":"加拿大皇家银行","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3669260","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121784380","content_text":"在明星基金经理Pierre Andurand质疑期油没有原因就能一天跌10美元前，高盛指出，最近价格下跌是因为期货和现货脱节，但又认为，商品的疲软因缺乏流动性而被夸大，这反而让入手变得很有吸引力。上周沙特能源大臣警告OPEC+因可能油价与基本面而被迫减产，这周，全球名列前茅的大宗商品对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、以看多商品闻名业内的欧洲明星基金经理Pierre Andurand也高呼油市出问题。当地时间8月31日周三，Andurand发推称，石油期货市场已经被彻底破坏，没有任何明显原因，期货油价就能一天跌10美元。Andurand质疑油市的前一天，本周二，国际原油期货自7月12日以来首次一日收跌逾5%，美国WTI原油盘中跌超6%，布伦特原油盘中甚至跌超7%，全数抹平周一反弹涨超4%所创的7月18日以来最大涨幅，周一才创7月末以来新高就跌至上周一以来低谷。Andurand的质疑是华尔街最近再次指出油市的问题。华尔街见闻稍早文章提到，将近两个月前，就有分析师发现，原油期货市场正因担心经济放缓而出现抛售，而现货市场看起来仍相当稳定，两者之间出现了错位。加拿大皇家银行表示，石油金融市场正与极其紧张的实物市场严重脱节，实物市场的定价体现的是供应的稀缺性，而金融市场的定价体现的是经济衰退。这可能会产生一些混乱的信号。自今年2月俄乌冲突升级以来，油价有十多天都出现了单日超过5美元的价格波动。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie等分析师最近在报告中解释，近期商品下跌主要是由期货市场和现货市场之间的脱节引起的。虽然这样的大幅波动过去被视为非正常现象，但在原油期货未平仓合约量处于七年来最低谷之际，大波动已经成为常态。渣打银行的报告称，上周四种主要布伦特和WTI合约的合计未平仓规模自2015年6月以来首次低于40亿桶。高盛最近报告指出，投机性的净多头仓位和商品的未平仓合约都在剧减。尽管如此，高盛仍然看好商品、尤其是石油，其最近报告将高盛GSCI和BCOM商品指数的总回报率预期分别上调至38.3%和13.6%。报告称，能源极度短缺的时代，石油是最后可以倚靠的大宗商品。由于缺乏流动性而被夸大的大宗商品市场疲软，反而是一个很有吸引力的入手点。同时高盛指出，宏观形势仍然具有挑战性，美元短期内可能进一步上涨。其中提到的最大风险包括投资者因波动性上升、追加保证金而进行的大规模金融清算，以及对经济衰退的担忧最终会引发价格下跌。因此不能完全排除再次出现流动性驱动的抛售。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"RY":0.9,"GS":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687946488,"gmtCreate":1660726283147,"gmtModify":1660726283147,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"偏空 预计小跌","listText":"偏空 预计小跌","text":"偏空 预计小跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687946488","repostId":"1141574679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634159073,"gmtCreate":1647414528865,"gmtModify":1647414528865,"author":{"id":"3447926573484248","authorId":"3447926573484248","name":"wky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e107637508a0a8db7b4a3c584e54d6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447926573484248","idStr":"3447926573484248"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心] ","listText":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 还等最后几分钱[开心] ","text":"这周到期的145put 不早就归零了 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