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pxczy
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2024-04-13
分析的不错
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-04-25
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
凉了 凉了
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-03-30
神仙
计划出售价值3亿美元股票,3B家居跌超16%
截至发稿,该股跌超10%,报0.721美元
计划出售价值3亿美元股票,3B家居跌超16%
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-03-17
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
老砸他干嘛
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-03-10
$硅谷银行(SIVB)$
可怕 太可怕了
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-03-09
还有五美元呢,赚大了
Wedbush:Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元
智通财经APP获悉,Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”,并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元,原因是该公司上周五表示,以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解,SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品,以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力,该行认为,SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。对此,Wedbush认为,破产/清算的可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元。
Wedbush:Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2023-02-23
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
你真行啊你
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2022-10-28
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
脑瓜子嗡嗡的
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2022-08-12
爱加不加
美国通胀开始熄火了吗?接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标?
东吴证券认为,7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降,但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连
美国通胀开始熄火了吗?接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标?
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pxczy
pxczy
·
2022-08-09
$英伟达(NVDA)$
好惨噢
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","BBBY":"3B家居","BK4547":"WSB热门概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/903388.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2323710418","content_text":"3月30日,3B家居股价走低,截至发稿,该股跌超16%,报0.6755美元。此前该公司称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票,同时终止了先前与对冲基金Hudson Bay Capital Management 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21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush:Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317758451","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”,并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元,原因是该公司上周五表示,以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解,SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品,以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力,该行认为,SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。对此,Wedbush认为,破产/清算的可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元。","content":"<html><body><article><p>智通财经APP获悉,Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate Capital</a>(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”,并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元,原因是该公司上周五表示,以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。</p><p>据了解,SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品,以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力,该行认为,SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。</p><p>对此,Wedbush认为,破产/清算的可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush:Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush:Silvergate Capital(SI.US)破产/清算可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-06 21:48 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”,并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元,原因是该公司上周五表示,以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解,SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品,以前是吸引储户将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023030621490584168be2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2317758451","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,Wedbush分析师David Chiaverini将Silvergate Capital(SI.US)的评级从“中性”下调至“跑输大盘”,并将其目标价从9美元下调至4美元,原因是该公司上周五表示,以做出“基于风险的决定”立即停止 Silvergate Exchange Network(SEN)支付网络服务。据了解,SEN是Silvergate的主要旗舰产品,以前是吸引储户将资金带到银行的主要吸引力,该行认为,SEN的终止可能标志着Silvergate可能会考虑逐步结束其业务。对此,Wedbush认为,破产/清算的可能性很大,清算价值为每股5美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624365116,"gmtCreate":1677088873035,"gmtModify":1677088874137,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450578137237105","authorIdStr":"3450578137237105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a>你真行啊你","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a>你真行啊你","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 你真行啊你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624365116","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665963593,"gmtCreate":1666902885812,"gmtModify":1666903350052,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450578137237105","authorIdStr":"3450578137237105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>脑瓜子嗡嗡的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>脑瓜子嗡嗡的","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$脑瓜子嗡嗡的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665963593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684639144,"gmtCreate":1660247175889,"gmtModify":1660247175889,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450578137237105","authorIdStr":"3450578137237105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"爱加不加","listText":"爱加不加","text":"爱加不加","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684639144","repostId":"2258174229","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2258174229","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660200122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2258174229?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-11 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国通胀开始熄火了吗?接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2258174229","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"东吴证券认为,7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降,但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>东吴证券认为,7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降,但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。</blockquote><p>在连续多月超预期高涨后,2022年7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息 75bp的概率下降。不过,各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行,我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个月通胀的下行,美联储才会认可通胀模式的转变,在此之前美联储仍将以非常态的幅度加息,<b>因此仍不能排除年内加息至4%的可能。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4407b2b628bba87774a598dd343d14\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从细项上来看7月通胀数据,汽油价格环比回落抵消了食品和住房租金的上涨,CPI环比增速为零:汽油环比降7.7%(前值+11.2%),食品环比升1.1%(前值+1.0%)。8月第一周汽油价格延续了7月的下跌,而期货市场预期年内此趋势将延续,助力CPI逐步放缓的趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8711454c58c52f44113389f826fbd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"808\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>不过,核心CPI的走势仍有待观察,尽管其7月环比增速放缓至0.3%(前值0.6%),但5.9%的同比增速与上月持平。由此可见,年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,我们认为主要有三个:</p><p>首先,住房租金作为美国通胀超预期的最大风险点。7月住房租金同比增幅扩大至5.7%,环比增速回落0.1%至0.5%(图2)。标普美国房价指数领先住房租金约15个月,以此倒推,2022年8至11月对应2021年5至8月,而彼时标普美国房价指数持续跳升,直到2021年9月上涨动能才减弱(图3)。<b>因此,住房租金环比动能最早可能在2022年12月才能减弱,而住房市场整体趋势性的降温要到2023年年中才能有所体现。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04a1d0ab0f02acf71f293d48462eecd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再者,车辆作为核心商品的重要组成部分(占比CPI近8%),其价格下行趋势尚不稳定。尽管7月新车价格环比增速回落至0.6%(前值0.7%),二手车价格环比增速回落至-0.4%(前值1.6%)。鉴于芯片供应问题尚未完全缓解,并且受到被压抑的需求释放的影响,车辆价格增速的回落尚未形成稳定态势(图4)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c56fa0350e6c750c146ab03176c624c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>最后,薪资环比增速仍在回升,加剧通胀的粘性。7月美国平均时薪增速回落至5.2%,回落幅度不及我们的预期。尽管制造业、批发贸易等行业工资增速放缓,但是以增幅最大的休闲和酒店业为代表的服务业尚未放缓(图5-图6)。而降至3.5%的失业率更是印证了美国经济尚未放缓,这需要美联储进一步采取行动,才能使得经济“降温”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a920ee7d2cfb5dcf7ee4492e950a9faf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8554b0add0b765eac88837492f0875\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们的模型显示2022年年内核心CPI回落至5%、核心PCE回落至4%均面临挑战(图7)。如此来看,直至2023年末,通胀回归美联储2%的目标难度很大,锚定3%或许更为现实。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b97850db848bbac06a071e87ed55bd1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。我们此前的报告参考了当前中性利率的估计(0.3%)和上一轮加息周期(2015-2018年)的经验,认为只有当实际政策利率回归到零附近时,本轮加息周期才会结束(图8)。<b>这意味着若想要年内核心PCE回落至4%附近,美联储仍需加息至少150bp,才能将实际政策利率引导至零。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797faa55e6886208cc73faa7a47a3b9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不过鉴于通胀数据比就业对于美联储加息的指引性更强,我们认为9月加息75bp的概率下降。将在美联储9月20至21日的议息会议前发布的8月通胀数据至关重要,若届时通胀持续下降,则可以基本排除9月加息75bp的可能性。为此我们将对美联储官员的表态以及8月25-27日杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔讲话释放的信号进行持续的跟踪。</p><p>至于加息步调何时回归25bp的常态?7月议息会议上鲍威尔曾表示,在物价涨势以“令人信服”的方式放缓之前,还会继续升息。<b>我们认为CPI至少要持续下降3个月,美联储才会认可通胀上升模式的转变,而对加息步调回归25bp的讨论最早要到11月的议息会议。</b>鉴于未来的加息节奏将更多依赖于经济数据,9月议息会议前公布经济数据仍有超市场预期的可能,这会让美联储放缓加息的选择更加困难。</p><p><b>从债券市场定价来看,</b>美联储引导实际利率上升的做法是成功的,7月议息会议以来,10Y美债收益率上升主要受到实际利率上升的带动(图9)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc58ab3ec77f5003851dd9551415f172\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而参考历史数据,在美联储以利率作为政策目标的时期,10年期美债收益率的高点往往不低于联邦基金利率的高点,这意味着当前10年期美国国债2.8%的利率水平过低,年内回升至3%的问题不大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20f8a5e94f0818fa2853fb332069f5e\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>风险提示:新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效,确诊病例大爆发导致美国经济重回封锁;俄乌局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国通胀开始熄火了吗?接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国通胀开始熄火了吗?接下来的加息节奏该关注什么指标?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-11 14:42 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247500492&idx=1&sn=ff46ddb59d0420b4c5361e5e10d92339&chksm=faaa37bfcdddbea9db2330c915e01a72d2e8c943c3d7d1eec40ea7cf25842b5babebb6336c76&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>东吴证券认为,7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降,但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连续多月超预期高涨后,2022年7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息 75bp的概率下降。不过,各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行,我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247500492&idx=1&sn=ff46ddb59d0420b4c5361e5e10d92339&chksm=faaa37bfcdddbea9db2330c915e01a72d2e8c943c3d7d1eec40ea7cf25842b5babebb6336c76&scene=0&xtrack=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247500492&idx=1&sn=ff46ddb59d0420b4c5361e5e10d92339&chksm=faaa37bfcdddbea9db2330c915e01a72d2e8c943c3d7d1eec40ea7cf25842b5babebb6336c76&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2258174229","content_text":"东吴证券认为,7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息75bp的概率下降,但年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。在连续多月超预期高涨后,2022年7月美国CPI和核心CPI终于双双不及预期,9月议息会议加息 75bp的概率下降。不过,各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标显示潜在的通胀依旧在上行,我们认为还需再连续观测到至少两个月通胀的下行,美联储才会认可通胀模式的转变,在此之前美联储仍将以非常态的幅度加息,因此仍不能排除年内加息至4%的可能。从细项上来看7月通胀数据,汽油价格环比回落抵消了食品和住房租金的上涨,CPI环比增速为零:汽油环比降7.7%(前值+11.2%),食品环比升1.1%(前值+1.0%)。8月第一周汽油价格延续了7月的下跌,而期货市场预期年内此趋势将延续,助力CPI逐步放缓的趋势。不过,核心CPI的走势仍有待观察,尽管其7月环比增速放缓至0.3%(前值0.6%),但5.9%的同比增速与上月持平。由此可见,年内通胀下行不及市场预期的风险点尚存,我们认为主要有三个:首先,住房租金作为美国通胀超预期的最大风险点。7月住房租金同比增幅扩大至5.7%,环比增速回落0.1%至0.5%(图2)。标普美国房价指数领先住房租金约15个月,以此倒推,2022年8至11月对应2021年5至8月,而彼时标普美国房价指数持续跳升,直到2021年9月上涨动能才减弱(图3)。因此,住房租金环比动能最早可能在2022年12月才能减弱,而住房市场整体趋势性的降温要到2023年年中才能有所体现。再者,车辆作为核心商品的重要组成部分(占比CPI近8%),其价格下行趋势尚不稳定。尽管7月新车价格环比增速回落至0.6%(前值0.7%),二手车价格环比增速回落至-0.4%(前值1.6%)。鉴于芯片供应问题尚未完全缓解,并且受到被压抑的需求释放的影响,车辆价格增速的回落尚未形成稳定态势(图4)。最后,薪资环比增速仍在回升,加剧通胀的粘性。7月美国平均时薪增速回落至5.2%,回落幅度不及我们的预期。尽管制造业、批发贸易等行业工资增速放缓,但是以增幅最大的休闲和酒店业为代表的服务业尚未放缓(图5-图6)。而降至3.5%的失业率更是印证了美国经济尚未放缓,这需要美联储进一步采取行动,才能使得经济“降温”。我们的模型显示2022年年内核心CPI回落至5%、核心PCE回落至4%均面临挑战(图7)。如此来看,直至2023年末,通胀回归美联储2%的目标难度很大,锚定3%或许更为现实。通胀回落还未形成趋势,尚不能排除美联储年内加息至4%的可能性。我们此前的报告参考了当前中性利率的估计(0.3%)和上一轮加息周期(2015-2018年)的经验,认为只有当实际政策利率回归到零附近时,本轮加息周期才会结束(图8)。这意味着若想要年内核心PCE回落至4%附近,美联储仍需加息至少150bp,才能将实际政策利率引导至零。不过鉴于通胀数据比就业对于美联储加息的指引性更强,我们认为9月加息75bp的概率下降。将在美联储9月20至21日的议息会议前发布的8月通胀数据至关重要,若届时通胀持续下降,则可以基本排除9月加息75bp的可能性。为此我们将对美联储官员的表态以及8月25-27日杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔讲话释放的信号进行持续的跟踪。至于加息步调何时回归25bp的常态?7月议息会议上鲍威尔曾表示,在物价涨势以“令人信服”的方式放缓之前,还会继续升息。我们认为CPI至少要持续下降3个月,美联储才会认可通胀上升模式的转变,而对加息步调回归25bp的讨论最早要到11月的议息会议。鉴于未来的加息节奏将更多依赖于经济数据,9月议息会议前公布经济数据仍有超市场预期的可能,这会让美联储放缓加息的选择更加困难。从债券市场定价来看,美联储引导实际利率上升的做法是成功的,7月议息会议以来,10Y美债收益率上升主要受到实际利率上升的带动(图9)。而参考历史数据,在美联储以利率作为政策目标的时期,10年期美债收益率的高点往往不低于联邦基金利率的高点,这意味着当前10年期美国国债2.8%的利率水平过低,年内回升至3%的问题不大。风险提示:新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效,确诊病例大爆发导致美国经济重回封锁;俄乌局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684956450,"gmtCreate":1660060538573,"gmtModify":1660060538573,"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3450578137237105","authorIdStr":"3450578137237105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>好惨噢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>好惨噢","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$好惨噢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684956450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}