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Margin of Safety

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1

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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·09-10 21:41
  我平仓了4手$ORCL 20250912 290.0 CALL$ ,财报前判断会涨15% 因此设置买290Call 从0.6陆续买入 0.39时买入最多结果财报前大涨30% 开盘后果断平仓实现40倍以上的增长最成功的看涨投资之一
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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·09-10 13:54
  牛逼可以持续看涨2年
  甲骨文爆了，这些数字和图表让市场和AI交易疯狂
  甲骨文庞大的RPO（剩余履约义务）和炸裂的云收入指引共同点燃市场情绪。其RPO本季度同比大增359%，达4550亿美元；云基础设施（OCI）业务收入预计将在未来四年分别攀升至320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元和1440亿美元，远超市场预期。
  甲骨文爆了，这些数字和图表让市场和AI交易疯狂
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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·08-12
  我开仓了1手$CRWV 20250815 138.0 CALL$ ,摩根大通分析师大幅上调了对CoreWeave的目标价，从此前的66美元提高至135美元，上调幅度超过100%。个人认为这是摩根大通对这次财报的超级看好！不然不会这么激进的上调目标价！值得买入看涨期权！
  673 评论
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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·08-12
  我开仓了1手$CRWV 20250815 138.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  308 评论
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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·08-07
  我开仓了$CRWV 20250815 118.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  346 评论
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- Margin of SafetyMargin of Safety
  ·2023-12-12
  余大嘴 Low货
  小米：余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论
  与事实严重不符。
  小米：余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论
  1,844 评论
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最成功的看涨投资之一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477140027945728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468998585565553","authorId":"3468998585565553","name":"辣椒爱吃辣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8b5aa35e61088e15ba54672e28fbaf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468998585565553","authorIdStr":"3468998585565553"},"content":"买少了，搞1000张财务自由了","text":"买少了，搞1000张财务自由了","html":"买少了，搞1000张财务自由了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477025115009808,"gmtCreate":1757483653774,"gmtModify":1757483955882,"author":{"id":"3464082344881626","authorId":"3464082344881626","name":"Margin of 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justify;\">消息公布后，甲骨文盘后大涨28%创历史新高，使其成为首家市值超过5000亿美元、且单日涨幅超过25%的美国公司。这清晰地表明，在当前的投资环境中，<strong>围绕AI构建的宏大叙事，其权重已经压倒了传统的财务指标，投资者愿意为增长前景支付高昂溢价。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17acbcbc6f8a961cd636fab4a6ed6429\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"593\"/></p><h2 id=\"backlog\">积压订单“惊人”，需求还在增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">引爆市场情绪的核心数据，是甲骨文急剧膨胀的“剩余履约义务”（RPO），即已签订合同但尚未确认为收入的金额。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Safra Catz在声明中表示，<strong>公司在第一财季与三个不同的客户签订了四份数十亿美元的合同。这直接导致甲骨文的RPO合同积压同比增长了惊人的359%，达到4550亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Catz将这一数据形容为“惊人的”，并强调“市场对甲骨文云基础设施（Oracle Cloud Infrastructure）的需求仍在持续增长”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她进一步透露，<strong>预计在未来几个月内，公司还将与“另外几家数十亿美元的客户”签约，届时RPO总额可能超过5000亿美元。</strong>这份庞大的合同储备，为甲骨文大胆预测未来收入增长提供了基础。</p><h2 id=\"ad1349ce\">云业务收入有望实现指数级增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在庞大RPO的支持下，甲骨文对其云业务的未来给出了一个堪称指数级增长的财务预测，这成为推动股价的另一个关键燃料。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司预计，其云基础设施（OCI）业务的收入将在本财年增长77%，达到180亿美元。更引人注目的是未来四年的规划<strong>：OCI收入预计将接连攀升至320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元，最终在第五年达到1440亿美元。这意味着该业务在数年内将以接近每年翻一番的速度扩张。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c1650b7640508393dffe38b873a547\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文方面补充称，这个五年预测中的大部分收入，已经包含在当前报告的RPO中。</p><h2 id=\"id_3402561877\">资本支出高企释放积极信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文激进扩张的背后，是满足AI巨头算力需求的庞大计划。为兑现这些巨额合同，公司正准备进行大规模的资本投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Catz在财报电话会议上表示，<strong>公司本财年的资本支出预计将达到350亿美元。</strong>她强调，这些投资的大部分将用于数据中心的“创收设备”，而非土地或建筑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她补充说，<strong>如果未来资本支出数字继续走高，那将是“好消息，因为它意味着更多的容量”，</strong>公司需要容量来将庞大的RPO积压订单转化为加速增长的收入和利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在财报发布前，Cantor Fitzgerald的分析师Thomas Blakey就曾指出，投资者应重点关注甲骨文的资本支出计划，以评估其满足新合同需求的能力。他认为，由AI需求驱动的OCI业务的强劲势头，“应能抵消在资本支出、资本结构和资本回报策略方面可能出现的短期风险”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文爆了，这些数字和图表让市场和AI交易疯狂</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文爆了，这些数字和图表让市场和AI交易疯狂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-10 08:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755282><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文庞大的RPO（剩余履约义务）和炸裂的云收入指引共同点燃市场情绪。其RPO本季度同比大增359%，达4550亿美元；云基础设施（OCI）业务收入预计将在未来四年分别攀升至320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元和1440亿美元，远超市场预期。甲骨文向市场证明，在AI驱动的狂热中，未来的承诺远比当前的业绩更具吸引力。尽管这家软件巨头刚刚公布的Q1业绩未能达到预期，但其股价却在盘后交易中飙升，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755282\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f48a892cdcaab300c901c1e9e1c374","relate_stocks":{"LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW 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SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755282","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566476196","content_text":"甲骨文庞大的RPO（剩余履约义务）和炸裂的云收入指引共同点燃市场情绪。其RPO本季度同比大增359%，达4550亿美元；云基础设施（OCI）业务收入预计将在未来四年分别攀升至320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元和1440亿美元，远超市场预期。甲骨文向市场证明，在AI驱动的狂热中，未来的承诺远比当前的业绩更具吸引力。尽管这家软件巨头刚刚公布的Q1业绩未能达到预期，但其股价却在盘后交易中飙升，原因在于公司与OpenAI签下的一笔巨额交易让订单额出现大幅增长，并对云基础设施业务给出了激进的增长预期。公司首席执行官Safra Catz发布声明宣布，公司在第一财季签订了数份价值数十亿美元的巨额合同，这使得公司的积压订单量猛增。同时，预计甲骨文云基础设施业务在本财年将增长77%，高于此前70%的预测，达到180亿美元。消息公布后，甲骨文盘后大涨28%创历史新高，使其成为首家市值超过5000亿美元、且单日涨幅超过25%的美国公司。这清晰地表明，在当前的投资环境中，围绕AI构建的宏大叙事，其权重已经压倒了传统的财务指标，投资者愿意为增长前景支付高昂溢价。积压订单“惊人”，需求还在增长引爆市场情绪的核心数据，是甲骨文急剧膨胀的“剩余履约义务”（RPO），即已签订合同但尚未确认为收入的金额。Safra Catz在声明中表示，公司在第一财季与三个不同的客户签订了四份数十亿美元的合同。这直接导致甲骨文的RPO合同积压同比增长了惊人的359%，达到4550亿美元。Catz将这一数据形容为“惊人的”，并强调“市场对甲骨文云基础设施（Oracle Cloud Infrastructure）的需求仍在持续增长”。她进一步透露，预计在未来几个月内，公司还将与“另外几家数十亿美元的客户”签约，届时RPO总额可能超过5000亿美元。这份庞大的合同储备，为甲骨文大胆预测未来收入增长提供了基础。云业务收入有望实现指数级增长在庞大RPO的支持下，甲骨文对其云业务的未来给出了一个堪称指数级增长的财务预测，这成为推动股价的另一个关键燃料。公司预计，其云基础设施（OCI）业务的收入将在本财年增长77%，达到180亿美元。更引人注目的是未来四年的规划：OCI收入预计将接连攀升至320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元，最终在第五年达到1440亿美元。这意味着该业务在数年内将以接近每年翻一番的速度扩张。甲骨文方面补充称，这个五年预测中的大部分收入，已经包含在当前报告的RPO中。资本支出高企释放积极信号甲骨文激进扩张的背后，是满足AI巨头算力需求的庞大计划。为兑现这些巨额合同，公司正准备进行大规模的资本投资。Catz在财报电话会议上表示，公司本财年的资本支出预计将达到350亿美元。她强调，这些投资的大部分将用于数据中心的“创收设备”，而非土地或建筑。她补充说，如果未来资本支出数字继续走高，那将是“好消息，因为它意味着更多的容量”，公司需要容量来将庞大的RPO积压订单转化为加速增长的收入和利润。在财报发布前，Cantor Fitzgerald的分析师Thomas 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Low货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251284061495456","repostId":"1142354611","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142354611","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1702356187,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142354611?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-12 12:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米：余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142354611","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"与事实严重不符。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>小米公司发文：近日，余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论，与事实严重不符。我们请余承东先生遵循“科学与严谨”的基本规则，请勿再抹黑同行、误导公众。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4338177799c4029094b8c77367ec6ea6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1483\" tg-height=\"4000\"/></p><p>此次事件起因于近日2023花粉年会上，华为终端BG CEO余承东对于知识产权的表态，余承东称：“友商抄袭时称不太尊重我们（华为）的知识产权，拿过去随便编个名字就说自己的。<strong>双旋水滴铰链直接变成龙骨铰链，龙骨是不存在的</strong>。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然余承东上述言论没提厂商名字，但业内猜测此番表态很可能是针对小米。余承东所说的“龙骨铰链”，恰好与小米 MIX Fold 3 手机的“小米龙骨转轴”名称类似。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据小米董事长雷军此前的介绍，小米龙骨转轴包含198个零件，14个可活动关节，3级连杆结构，在实现轻薄的同时还能提供更好的屏幕保护力。<strong>雷军更是称小米龙骨转轴是小米深耕底层核心技术的成果之一。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d192cfe6eddfd9e906abc6f563af64ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米：余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米：余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-12 12:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>小米公司发文：近日，余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论，与事实严重不符。我们请余承东先生遵循“科学与严谨”的基本规则，请勿再抹黑同行、误导公众。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4338177799c4029094b8c77367ec6ea6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1483\" tg-height=\"4000\"/></p><p>此次事件起因于近日2023花粉年会上，华为终端BG CEO余承东对于知识产权的表态，余承东称：“友商抄袭时称不太尊重我们（华为）的知识产权，拿过去随便编个名字就说自己的。<strong>双旋水滴铰链直接变成龙骨铰链，龙骨是不存在的</strong>。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然余承东上述言论没提厂商名字，但业内猜测此番表态很可能是针对小米。余承东所说的“龙骨铰链”，恰好与小米 MIX Fold 3 手机的“小米龙骨转轴”名称类似。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据小米董事长雷军此前的介绍，小米龙骨转轴包含198个零件，14个可活动关节，3级连杆结构，在实现轻薄的同时还能提供更好的屏幕保护力。<strong>雷军更是称小米龙骨转轴是小米深耕底层核心技术的成果之一。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d192cfe6eddfd9e906abc6f563af64ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142354611","content_text":"小米公司发文：近日，余承东先生无端针对我司龙骨转轴技术发布不实言论，与事实严重不符。我们请余承东先生遵循“科学与严谨”的基本规则，请勿再抹黑同行、误导公众。此次事件起因于近日2023花粉年会上，华为终端BG CEO余承东对于知识产权的表态，余承东称：“友商抄袭时称不太尊重我们（华为）的知识产权，拿过去随便编个名字就说自己的。双旋水滴铰链直接变成龙骨铰链，龙骨是不存在的。”虽然余承东上述言论没提厂商名字，但业内猜测此番表态很可能是针对小米。余承东所说的“龙骨铰链”，恰好与小米 MIX Fold 3 手机的“小米龙骨转轴”名称类似。根据小米董事长雷军此前的介绍，小米龙骨转轴包含198个零件，14个可活动关节，3级连杆结构，在实现轻薄的同时还能提供更好的屏幕保护力。雷军更是称小米龙骨转轴是小米深耕底层核心技术的成果之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}