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Starry

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- StarryStarry
  ·2022-09-13
  不能说真话不如不说话🙊
  iPhone 14预售喜忧参半，“最懂苹果分析师”称非Pro机型定位失败
  天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，iPhone14和iPhone14Plus的预购结果“糟糕”，表明苹果对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。目前这两款产品占整个系列出货量的45%左右。倘若在发售后需求没有改...
  iPhone 14预售喜忧参半，“最懂苹果分析师”称非Pro机型定位失败
  2,760 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2022-02-02
  A股关门就是利好
  以史为鉴，中美股市共振下行几时休？
  中美股市2022年以来均遭遇连续的回调，截至本周五，上证综指和标普500年初至今的跌幅分别达到了8%和9%。从历史来看，中美股市在不到一个月的时间内如此快速下跌并不多见，虽然两国股市下跌因素有所不同，
  以史为鉴，中美股市共振下行几时休？
  2,786 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-12-21
  故意压低价格退市吧？私有化
  @Julian_Zhang：
  $波奇宠物(BQ)$要退市了吧
  $波奇宠物(BQ)$要退市了吧
  3,056 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-12-03
  $波奇宠物(BQ)$什么时候退市？
  5,338 1
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-11-18
  $Zynga(ZNGA)$新低向6.19进发
  3,260 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-06-23
  你先买晒实单
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,415 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-02-26
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$要给股东烧纸吗？送瘟神
  2,880 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-02-24
  Half a billion ，5 亿美元
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,558 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2021-01-02
  牛股价上天
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,383 评论
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- StarryStarry
  ·2020-12-07
  说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,093 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。目前这两款产品占整个系列出货量的45%左右。倘若在发售后需求没有改变，则苹果可能会在数周内下调这两款机型在11月与之后的出货量。</p><p>对于另外两款机型iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max，与iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max相比，他们的预购结果“中性”和“良好”。但预售结果不代表苹果会立即增加Pro机型的订单，苹果将视Pro机型的强劲需求在经济衰退期间能持续多久来做出决定。据目前预售结果，iPhone 14 Pro机型的强劲需求可能将至少持续到11月。</p><p>对于备受瞩目的中国地区市场，郭明錤指出iPhone 14线下预购调查显示，中国地区iPhone 14 Pro系列占订单分配约为85%，非常受欢迎。而在发布之前被认为可能会最火爆的iPhone 14 Plus，仅分配了约5%的订单，占比在全系四款机型最少。从这次调查来看，今年苹果的产品分化策略较为成功，iPhone 14 Pro系列独享的A16、灵动岛、4800万像素主摄等等，深受消费者喜欢，而这无疑带动苹果业绩提升。</p><p>郭明錤对“如何推广两款iPhone 14标准版机型”发表了几点建议。他认为，在营销策略上，苹果应将A16命名为A16 Pro，将两款iPhone 14标准机型使用的A15命名为A16/A15Plus.此外，苹果还应该重新命名处理器采用的高级制程节点，例如A16 Pro/A16 是由N4 Pro/N4 Plus制程制造，苹果未来几年将停留在3nm制程，因此开始命名高级节点可能对营销有帮助。</p><p>据苹果官方，iPhone 14 Pro搭载苹果最新版芯片A16，专注于节约能耗、显示和摄像方面。它具有160亿晶体管，采用4纳米制造工艺，不但运行速度更快，也可以延长电池寿命。总体而言，A16比竞品芯片速度提升40%。A16仍然是六个CPU核心，包括两个性能核和四个能效核，其中性能核不但性能更高，功耗还比A15降低了20%，能效核则号称只有竞品三分之一的功耗。</p><p>iPhone 14 Pro还大幅提升了摄像功能，配有4800万像素的摄像头和支持像素四合一技术的传感器，比iPhone 13 Pro大65%，镜头聚焦24mm.主摄像头在暗光环境拍摄效果提升一倍，拍摄远景效果提升一倍，并且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>聚焦更适合的颜色和光线，增加高动态范围(HDR)的更多细节。</p><p>iPhone 14 Pro也提高了Apple ProRAW拍摄功能，大幅提高了RAW格式拍摄时的空间。其超广角镜头在捕捉光线和微距拍摄方面效果提升三倍。和iPhone 13 Pro系列的发布起步价一样，iPhone 14 Pro起售价也是999美元，iPhone 14 Pro Max起售价1099美元。</p><p>而iPhone 14遇冷，市场认为主要因为iPhone 14相比iPhone 13几乎没有变化，只有运行内存增加了2GB，以及CPU多了1个核心。外观、电池和摄像头均与iPhone 13保持一致，价格则仍旧从5999元起售。内存和处理器的一点点升级很难满足消费者的日常使用体验。</p><p>iPhone 14系列预定数据虽然喜忧参半，但苹果股价反应积极，盘中该股涨幅扩大至4.4%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f86edb6e9fb0d754d33651878f9667f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\niPhone 14预售喜忧参半，“最懂苹果分析师”称非Pro机型定位失败\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-13 07:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670113><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，iPhone 14和iPhone 14 Plus的预购结果“糟糕”，表明苹果对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max的预购结果“中性”和“良好”。天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，iPhone 14和iPhone 14 Plus的预购结果“糟糕”，表明苹果对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。目前这两款产品占整个系列...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670113\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09a64127be7efd0782335072a1046e3a","relate_stocks":{"BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","AAPL":"苹果","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670113","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267375754","content_text":"天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，iPhone 14和iPhone 14 Plus的预购结果“糟糕”，表明苹果对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max的预购结果“中性”和“良好”。天风国际分析师郭明錤表示，iPhone 14和iPhone 14 Plus的预购结果“糟糕”，表明苹果对这两款新标准机型的定位可能已经失败。目前这两款产品占整个系列出货量的45%左右。倘若在发售后需求没有改变，则苹果可能会在数周内下调这两款机型在11月与之后的出货量。对于另外两款机型iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max，与iPhone 13 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max相比，他们的预购结果“中性”和“良好”。但预售结果不代表苹果会立即增加Pro机型的订单，苹果将视Pro机型的强劲需求在经济衰退期间能持续多久来做出决定。据目前预售结果，iPhone 14 Pro机型的强劲需求可能将至少持续到11月。对于备受瞩目的中国地区市场，郭明錤指出iPhone 14线下预购调查显示，中国地区iPhone 14 Pro系列占订单分配约为85%，非常受欢迎。而在发布之前被认为可能会最火爆的iPhone 14 Plus，仅分配了约5%的订单，占比在全系四款机型最少。从这次调查来看，今年苹果的产品分化策略较为成功，iPhone 14 Pro系列独享的A16、灵动岛、4800万像素主摄等等，深受消费者喜欢，而这无疑带动苹果业绩提升。郭明錤对“如何推广两款iPhone 14标准版机型”发表了几点建议。他认为，在营销策略上，苹果应将A16命名为A16 Pro，将两款iPhone 14标准机型使用的A15命名为A16/A15Plus.此外，苹果还应该重新命名处理器采用的高级制程节点，例如A16 Pro/A16 是由N4 Pro/N4 Plus制程制造，苹果未来几年将停留在3nm制程，因此开始命名高级节点可能对营销有帮助。据苹果官方，iPhone 14 Pro搭载苹果最新版芯片A16，专注于节约能耗、显示和摄像方面。它具有160亿晶体管，采用4纳米制造工艺，不但运行速度更快，也可以延长电池寿命。总体而言，A16比竞品芯片速度提升40%。A16仍然是六个CPU核心，包括两个性能核和四个能效核，其中性能核不但性能更高，功耗还比A15降低了20%，能效核则号称只有竞品三分之一的功耗。iPhone 14 Pro还大幅提升了摄像功能，配有4800万像素的摄像头和支持像素四合一技术的传感器，比iPhone 13 Pro大65%，镜头聚焦24mm.主摄像头在暗光环境拍摄效果提升一倍，拍摄远景效果提升一倍，并且智能聚焦更适合的颜色和光线，增加高动态范围(HDR)的更多细节。iPhone 14 Pro也提高了Apple ProRAW拍摄功能，大幅提高了RAW格式拍摄时的空间。其超广角镜头在捕捉光线和微距拍摄方面效果提升三倍。和iPhone 13 Pro系列的发布起步价一样，iPhone 14 Pro起售价也是999美元，iPhone 14 Pro Max起售价1099美元。而iPhone 14遇冷，市场认为主要因为iPhone 14相比iPhone 13几乎没有变化，只有运行内存增加了2GB，以及CPU多了1个核心。外观、电池和摄像头均与iPhone 13保持一致，价格则仍旧从5999元起售。内存和处理器的一点点升级很难满足消费者的日常使用体验。iPhone 14系列预定数据虽然喜忧参半，但苹果股价反应积极，盘中该股涨幅扩大至4.4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633395945,"gmtCreate":1643731894244,"gmtModify":1643731894244,"author":{"id":"3466372792127707","authorId":"3466372792127707","name":"Starry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714b68f712c299f09627b965876647ab","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3466372792127707","authorIdStr":"3466372792127707"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A股关门就是利好","listText":"A股关门就是利好","text":"A股关门就是利好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633395945","repostId":"2207280373","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2207280373","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643419685,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2207280373?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 09:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，中美股市共振下行几时休？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2207280373","media":"格隆汇","summary":"中美股市2022年以来均遭遇连续的回调，截至本周五，上证综指和标普500年初至今的跌幅分别达到了8%和9%。从历史来看，中美股市在不到一个月的时间内如此快速下跌并不多见，虽然两国股市下跌因素有所不同，","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>中美股市2022年以来均遭遇连续的回调，截至本周五，上证综指和标普500年初至今的跌幅分别达到了8%和9%。</b>从历史来看，中美股市在不到一个月的时间内如此快速下跌并不多见，虽然两国股市下跌因素有所不同，但作为市值在全球股市中排名前二的市场，中美股市共振下跌难免会加重投资者的悲观预期，<b>因此，谁能率先打破这种共振下行的局面，对于市场预期的逆转就显得尤为重要。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587bca836614e324a1876d063a58fcbd\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>金融危机后除去2020年3月新冠疫情爆发，中美股市的只出现过如下6次共振下跌：</p><p><b>2010年1月-2月（图2）：</b>中美股市这波开年下跌持续了23天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为7%和8%，<b>起因是1月18日中国央行上调存款准备金率，</b>在全球率先结束了超宽松的货币政策，A股由此在下跌后震荡；同期美股的下跌则叠加了欧债危机和金融监管新规的影响，但随着欧盟承诺救助希腊和强劲的美国财报数据公布，美股率先反弹。</p><p><b>2010年4月-7月（图2）：</b>这波持续了74天的共振下跌源于国内外政策面利空的叠加，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为21%和16%，<b>同期中国“国十条”地产调控政策出台，而欧债危机则因希腊和葡萄牙评级遭下调再度发酵。</b>三季度随着中美经济数据的走弱，A股因紧缩政策告一段落而超跌反弹，美股则因宽松预期未兑现而继续震荡。</p><p><b>2011年7月-9月（图2）：</b>这波共振下跌持续了64天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为11%和13%。A股的下跌源于国内滞胀担忧的升温，亦叠加了地产调控的不放松，<b>而同期美股的走弱则因美债违约风险的加大，尤其是8月美债评级的下调。</b>此后美股因经济数据的持续改善迎来超跌后反弹，但A股则延续弱势震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44db241e359d7022368870f1a2208ccc\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2015年8月-9月（图3）：</b>中美股市的下跌共持续了12天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为26%和7%。<b>导火索为我国“811”汇改，人民币的大幅贬值打乱了其自2005年以来稳步升值步伐，对全球股市形成冲击。</b>8月26日中国央行宣布降准降息，A股才逐步回暖。而美股方面，消化了利空因素后，强劲的基本面带动美股反弹。</p><p><b>2016年1月（图3）：</b>这波开年开始的共振下跌共持续11天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为18%和8%，<b>起因是我国2016年初生效的熔断机制，造成A股在1月4日和7日各熔断两次，外溢性波及美股，</b>1月7日晚我国证监会决定取消熔断机制，市场情绪逐渐稳定下中美股市企稳。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a7c5d461a4b0156c55374525672cf7\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2018年9月-12月（图4）：</b>中美股市的下跌共持续了70天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为7%和10%。9月18日，中美贸易战升级，美方宣布对来自中国进口的约2,000 亿美元商品加征关税，中美股市应声下挫。<b>12 月1日双方同意停止加征关税90 天，中美股市才逐渐企稳。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d61b62cb0c0a1e75689d5732676c740\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在上述中美股市共振下行时期，<b>债券和黄金多为上涨，基本金属普遍下跌（表1）。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d93808bafe1252a65e1295dae9c121b\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>综合上述复盘可以看出，政策的收紧或事件的冲击往往是中美股市共振下行的触发因素。因此，<b>扭转这一局面的最有效方式便是政策的纠偏或事件冲击的消退，但如果这两个条件尚不具备，则只能期待经济基本面的持续改善。</b></p><p><b>我们再来看2022年以来的这波中美股市共振下行，市场对美联储货币紧缩的担忧的回落无疑是一个主导因素，</b>而A股的下跌也叠加了国内稳增长政策出台的缓不济急。因此，要结束当前的局面，无非取决于两个条件：一是美联储重回鸽派，二是中国的稳增长政策开始见效。<b>就第一条件而言，我们认为美股的调整尚未结束。</b>这是美联储已经一致表达了遏制通胀的决心，除非金融条件大幅收紧，否则美联储短期内很难转鸽。<b>就第二个条件而言，我们认为A股有望在节后迎来反弹。</b>市场可能会担心1月金融数据不及预期，但即便出现这样的结果，我们认为货币宽松和财政发力的空间将进一步打开，而房地产销售大幅下滑会加速放松政策在节后的出台。因此，2022年一季度的宽信用虽然可能迟到，但不会缺席。</p><p><b>风险提示：</b>疫情扩散超预期，政策对冲经济下行力度不及预期</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，中美股市共振下行几时休？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-29 09:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/508330><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中美股市2022年以来均遭遇连续的回调，截至本周五，上证综指和标普500年初至今的跌幅分别达到了8%和9%。从历史来看，中美股市在不到一个月的时间内如此快速下跌并不多见，虽然两国股市下跌因素有所不同，但作为市值在全球股市中排名前二的市场，中美股市共振下跌难免会加重投资者的悲观预期，因此，谁能率先打破这种共振下行的局面，对于市场预期的逆转就显得尤为重要。金融危机后除去2020年3月新冠疫情爆发，中美...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/508330\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f37245cdd9f577000f7193c7907d3f","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/508330","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2207280373","content_text":"中美股市2022年以来均遭遇连续的回调，截至本周五，上证综指和标普500年初至今的跌幅分别达到了8%和9%。从历史来看，中美股市在不到一个月的时间内如此快速下跌并不多见，虽然两国股市下跌因素有所不同，但作为市值在全球股市中排名前二的市场，中美股市共振下跌难免会加重投资者的悲观预期，因此，谁能率先打破这种共振下行的局面，对于市场预期的逆转就显得尤为重要。金融危机后除去2020年3月新冠疫情爆发，中美股市的只出现过如下6次共振下跌：2010年1月-2月（图2）：中美股市这波开年下跌持续了23天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为7%和8%，起因是1月18日中国央行上调存款准备金率，在全球率先结束了超宽松的货币政策，A股由此在下跌后震荡；同期美股的下跌则叠加了欧债危机和金融监管新规的影响，但随着欧盟承诺救助希腊和强劲的美国财报数据公布，美股率先反弹。2010年4月-7月（图2）：这波持续了74天的共振下跌源于国内外政策面利空的叠加，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为21%和16%，同期中国“国十条”地产调控政策出台，而欧债危机则因希腊和葡萄牙评级遭下调再度发酵。三季度随着中美经济数据的走弱，A股因紧缩政策告一段落而超跌反弹，美股则因宽松预期未兑现而继续震荡。2011年7月-9月（图2）：这波共振下跌持续了64天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为11%和13%。A股的下跌源于国内滞胀担忧的升温，亦叠加了地产调控的不放松，而同期美股的走弱则因美债违约风险的加大，尤其是8月美债评级的下调。此后美股因经济数据的持续改善迎来超跌后反弹，但A股则延续弱势震荡。2015年8月-9月（图3）：中美股市的下跌共持续了12天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为26%和7%。导火索为我国“811”汇改，人民币的大幅贬值打乱了其自2005年以来稳步升值步伐，对全球股市形成冲击。8月26日中国央行宣布降准降息，A股才逐步回暖。而美股方面，消化了利空因素后，强劲的基本面带动美股反弹。2016年1月（图3）：这波开年开始的共振下跌共持续11天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为18%和8%，起因是我国2016年初生效的熔断机制，造成A股在1月4日和7日各熔断两次，外溢性波及美股，1月7日晚我国证监会决定取消熔断机制，市场情绪逐渐稳定下中美股市企稳。2018年9月-12月（图4）：中美股市的下跌共持续了70天，上证综指和标普500跌幅分别为7%和10%。9月18日，中美贸易战升级，美方宣布对来自中国进口的约2,000 亿美元商品加征关税，中美股市应声下挫。12 月1日双方同意停止加征关税90 天，中美股市才逐渐企稳。在上述中美股市共振下行时期，债券和黄金多为上涨，基本金属普遍下跌（表1）。综合上述复盘可以看出，政策的收紧或事件的冲击往往是中美股市共振下行的触发因素。因此，扭转这一局面的最有效方式便是政策的纠偏或事件冲击的消退，但如果这两个条件尚不具备，则只能期待经济基本面的持续改善。我们再来看2022年以来的这波中美股市共振下行，市场对美联储货币紧缩的担忧的回落无疑是一个主导因素，而A股的下跌也叠加了国内稳增长政策出台的缓不济急。因此，要结束当前的局面，无非取决于两个条件：一是美联储重回鸽派，二是中国的稳增长政策开始见效。就第一条件而言，我们认为美股的调整尚未结束。这是美联储已经一致表达了遏制通胀的决心，除非金融条件大幅收紧，否则美联储短期内很难转鸽。就第二个条件而言，我们认为A股有望在节后迎来反弹。市场可能会担心1月金融数据不及预期，但即便出现这样的结果，我们认为货币宽松和财政发力的空间将进一步打开，而房地产销售大幅下滑会加速放松政策在节后的出台。因此，2022年一季度的宽信用虽然可能迟到，但不会缺席。风险提示：疫情扩散超预期，政策对冲经济下行力度不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.6,".IXIC":0.6,".SPX":0.9,"BND":0.6,"CNmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.6,"MGCmain":0.65,"TNmain":0.81,"UBmain":0.81,"ZBmain":0.81,"ZFmain":0.81,"ZNmain":0.81,"ZTmain":0.81,"SPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691040657,"gmtCreate":1640101697386,"gmtModify":1640101697386,"author":{"id":"3466372792127707","authorId":"3466372792127707","name":"Starry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714b68f712c299f09627b965876647ab","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3466372792127707","authorIdStr":"3466372792127707"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"故意压低价格 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