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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
09-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
千亿外卖大战,阿里已经赢了?
二季度,京东收入同比增加22.4%,但净利润同比下降50.8%,粗略估算在外卖上烧掉了近140亿;美团收入同比增长11.7%,但净利润同比暴跌89%,大约烧掉了115亿;阿里家大业大,收入同比微增2%,但净利润同比下降18%,粗略估计也为“外卖大战”烧掉了百亿。而按照三家平台公布的计划,他们今年将会为外卖大战累计投入近千亿元。与之相映衬的是,阿里在财报发布后股价大涨超12%。
千亿外卖大战,阿里已经赢了?
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
09-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
七年来首次温和涨价?大摩:下周的苹果发布会,所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价
摩根士丹利预测,苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式,实现七年来首次“温和涨价”,推动iPhone平均售价增长5%,将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真,不仅有望抵消成本压力,还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒,成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。
七年来首次温和涨价?大摩:下周的苹果发布会,所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
08-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
半导体关税风暴将至?特朗普宣称税率或高达300%
美国商务部已启动对半导体和制药业的调查。
半导体关税风暴将至?特朗普宣称税率或高达300%
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
08-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工
转为由国内一家企业代工。
市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
08-29
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施
英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施
英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
08-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
关税风险消退+定价潜力,大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US):iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部
智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司iPhone 9月当季销量的预测,将原本预计的5000万部上调8%至5400万部。值得注意的是,此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型,各新增200万部产能。展望2025年下半年,分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间,同比下降5%至1%。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平,9月季度存在更大的补库空间,这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。
关税风险消退+定价潜力,大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US):iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
08-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为
摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为苹果的情况可能即将出现转机。”该公司提到了iPhone的积极发展趋势、苹果的定价
摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
04-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
美股大跌以后就是抄底的好机会
@空jun大队长:
昨天美股在特朗普的关税大棒一下血流成河,我一直说过,美国加关税是一个七伤拳,美国的经济会受到特别大的伤害,美股最先反应过来的,道琼斯纳斯达克都是暴跌,美元指数暴跌,不过美元暴跌倒是对美国的出口是一件好事,因为美元贬值以后出口的商品就便宜了,但是进口的商品就更贵了,估计那些红脖子是买不起进口产品了,因为美元贬值以后他们的购买力就下降了,还有加了关税以后,进口的商品会更贵了。 我这一个月对关税说得特别多,我一直说了,驱赶非法移民会让美国的服务业价格上涨,加关税会让美国的商品变得更贵,特朗普一直说加的关税是由生产商出,这是特朗普骗红脖子的,这些人因为没有读书,不懂经济学常识,所以给特朗普骗了,因为美国进口的商品基本上都是毛利润在10%左右的商品,如果把关税加了20%以上,这些厂家如果按原价卖,就会直接破产,这个世界上犯fa的买卖有人做,但是亏本的买卖是没有人干的,不可能亏本把商品出口给美国人,所以只会涨价,那涨价最终买单的就是美国的消费者,关税实际上就是一种消费税,是由消费者买单的。 特朗普的内阁因为没有技术官僚,全部是一群业余的草台班子,包括特朗普自己也没有多少文化,他是红脖子的老大吗,大部分红脖子一辈子没有离开自己的家乡,更没有出过国,一个是穷,第二个是没有文化,加上素质也低,低收入,低学历,低素质,所以叫3D人员,他们这些人来管理美国这个国家,自然会搞得鸡飞狗跳,美国的人均GDP在所有的工业国家里面是最高的,工资也是七大工业国里面最高的,但是特朗普一直说这些国家占了美国的便宜,如果占了美国的便宜,应该他们的工资比美国人的工资高,为什么还低呢,欧洲的总人口有5亿人,美国只有3亿多人,但是欧洲的GDP总量以20年前是高于美国的,现在远远低于美国,谁占谁便宜,一目了然。 美国拥有全世界利润最高的几个行业,芯片,软件,互联网,创新药,医疗器械,这些行业的毛利润高达50%以上,而汽车
美股大跌以后就是抄底的好机会
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
01-29
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
中国不只有DeepSeek,阿里除夕夜抛出重磅新模型,是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?
继DeepSeek之后,Qwen2.5-Max的发布是中国AI阵营在高性能、低成本技术路线上的又一重要突破。市场人士分析称,此前过度聚焦DeepSeek,却忽视了包括阿里通义在内的中国AI整体性追赶。02是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?如果说DeepSeek V3的横空出世展现了中国AI的锐度,那么本次阿里的突破则体现了产业生态的深度进化。如果阿里Qwen-2.5-max的性能确实展现出预期水平,加之其低成本优势与完整云生态,有理由期待,它将引发DeepSeek之后的中国AI资产新一轮重估。
中国不只有DeepSeek,阿里除夕夜抛出重磅新模型,是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?
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许愿百万美金
许愿百万美金
·
01-28
deepseek的出圈极有可能戳破ai泡沫,所以英伟达暴跌,纳斯达克大跌
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11:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千亿外卖大战,阿里已经赢了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565350195","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"二季度,京东收入同比增加22.4%,但净利润同比下降50.8%,粗略估算在外卖上烧掉了近140亿;美团收入同比增长11.7%,但净利润同比暴跌89%,大约烧掉了115亿;阿里家大业大,收入同比微增2%,但净利润同比下降18%,粗略估计也为“外卖大战”烧掉了百亿。而按照三家平台公布的计划,他们今年将会为外卖大战累计投入近千亿元。与之相映衬的是,阿里在财报发布后股价大涨超12%。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member51558/202509/wx_article__26ccde850188fb653fd9a7a18be5673b.jpg\"/><p>罗马不是一天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>的,护城河也不是短期挖出的。</p><p><strong>文 |</strong><strong>浩然</strong></p><p><strong>本文为商隐社原创文章,转载请联系后台</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250905114310478d163hp6ngjbtftk\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250905114310935d163fcs7o8cwl6i\"/><p>淘宝闪购的叙事</p><p>最近一段时间,“外卖三傻”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>的新一季财报陆续出炉,让我们看到了外卖价格战的惨烈程度。</p><p>二季度,京东收入同比增加22.4%,但<span>净利润</span>同比下降50.8%,粗略估算在外卖上烧掉了近140亿;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>收入同比增长11.7%,但净利润同比暴跌89%,大约烧掉了115亿;</p><p>阿里家大业大,收入同比微增2%,但净利润同比下降18%,粗略估计也为“外卖大战”烧掉了百亿。</p><p>而按照三家平台公布的计划,他们今年将会为外卖大战累计投入近千亿元。</p><p>先后遭遇京东、阿里两大电商巨头的围攻、把外卖作为根基的美团看起来受伤最严重,财报发布后,其港股重挫10%,创去年九月来的股价新低。</p><p>这里面也考虑到了七八月份外卖大战投入更大、战况更为激烈,美团流血更重,王兴也坦言:“预计三季度会因为战略投资,导致核心本地商业出现重大损失,但依然有信心未来行业会回复到合理水平”。</p><p>与之相映衬的是,阿里在财报发布后股价大涨超12%。</p><p>于是,不少媒体分析认为,阿里一出手就打掉了美团近90%的利润,而且未来一年对闪购还有几百亿的持续投入,更何况它的现金及其他流动投资高达5856.6亿元,是三家里面最多的(京东、美团分别为2234亿元、1711亿元),巨量资金砸下去,肯定能赢得外卖大战的最终胜利。</p><p>但外卖毕竟是苦生意,无论之前的饿了么还是淘宝闪购,都是亏损的,巨量资金砸下去不能正常盈利怎么办?</p><p>对于这个问题,蒋凡在财报会上也做出了说明,即阿里的逻辑并非为了外卖本身,而是用外卖这个高频场景来为增长放缓的淘宝引流。</p><p>换言之,外卖业务的战略地位要放在一个大棋局上去看,其本身的盈利状况并不重要。</p><p>更有一些分析人士认为,阿里每年从小红书、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">B站</a>、抖音等渠道采买流量的费用就高达上千亿,外卖补贴相当于把这几百亿拿来补贴用户,不但同样给淘宝带来了流量,还维持了闪购业务的壮大。</p><p>在这样一套叙事之下,无论从短期还是长期来看,淘宝闪购击败美团似乎只是时间问题。</p><p>但这就属于对短期事件反应过度了。</p><p>需要明确的是,阿里在财报后股价大涨,并不是因为其闪购业务的胜利,更多归因于阿里云超预期的、26%的增长,以及自研AI芯片。</p><p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在研报中所认为的,市场对阿里财报的初步积极反应主要归因于云业务的加速增长和超预期的资本支出。</p><p>而事实上,淘宝闪购的叙事逻辑存在挺多漏洞。</p><p>首先,外卖与电商的协同效应并不明显。</p><p>蒋凡在财报会上披露了8月份日均8000万单的淘宝闪购拉动了淘宝APP日活上涨20%。但这是8月份的数据,或许第二季度时淘宝闪购订单数还未达到一个数量级,对日活带动并不明显。</p><p>如此大力度的补贴,很多茶饮甚至可以领券免费喝,必然会带来月活的大幅提升。</p><p>日活提升最终还是为了带来更多交易量,第二季度淘天最核心的客户管理收入(主要来自佣金和广告)增长了10%,但上一季度这个数字是12%,尚难看出闪购的带动作用。</p><p>另外,本季阿里销售与市场费用为531亿元,比上年同期多出200多亿,有100多亿是用来补贴的,当下来看并没有抵消广告投入,至于什么时候外卖引流能替代广告投流的费用,还需要观察。</p><p>此外,广告投流吸引的是主动点进来的相对高意向用户,与被低价券吸引来点外卖的用户还是有所区别的。</p><p>其次,阿里做淘宝闪购仍是沿用“炮灰思维”。</p><p>阿里这次推出淘宝闪购的决心和力度很大,也迅速取得了不错的成果,很多人又看到了那个能打的阿里。</p><p>但淘宝闪购本质上还是为了解决淘宝主站的流量稀缺问题,这其实还是在沿用以往的思路,即这项业务本身的投入产出比并不重要,能有益于整个生态或给电商业务带来流量就算成功。</p><p>阿里的优势在于强大的生态系统,也强调协同作战,而端坐于生态系统核心位置的就是电商业务。在阿里大踏步扩张的那些年,收购来的UC浏览器、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOKU\">优酷土豆</a>、高德、饿了么等,都承担了给主站导流的重任。</p><p>比如2018年阿里联合蚂蚁金服以95亿美元全资收购饿了么之后,时任饿了么CEO的王磊认为“从饿了么对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团(本地生活入口、即时配送和支付场景)的三大价值来看,怎么投入都是划算的”。</p><p>当时饿了么把三四线城市作为核心战场,因为阿里考虑到饿了么从下沉市场拉来一个新客户,就会带来带来一个支付宝新用户和手淘新用户。</p><p>生态协同能让新业务借助生态圈内的力量补齐短板,快速破局,但也容易让新业务丧失发展主动权。</p><p>如果一项新业务的存在一开始就锚定在为核心业务提供流量,那其发展就跟核心业务牢牢绑到了一块,如果核心业务遭遇困境,不惜花重金打造、没有造血能力的新业务处境就极其尴尬,沦为“炮灰”。</p><p>根据高盛研报的测算,淘天第二季度GMV增速为5%左右,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、抖音电商、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>都维持了双位数增长。</p><p>而且在阿里进攻外卖战场时,拼多多和抖音电商都在大力扶持中小商家,拼多多搞了“千亿扶持”,抖音电商累计投入了160多亿,它们都试图让更能捕捉消费者需求的优质中小商家在供给端实现升级,未来可能会对淘天进一步造成冲击。</p><p>更为重要的是,目前淘宝闪购仍处于一种“战时状态”,依靠强补贴维持现有的单量,7月单月补贴峰值就超过了100亿元,此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>预计2026财年阿里外卖业务每单亏损2.7元,即时零售每单亏损3.7元。低价退潮后,多少被低价吸引来的用户还会留下还是未知。</p><p>阿里到底能不能赢,还是要看市场份额和平均单位成本的平衡。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250905114311715d163v47afnvq94k\"/><p>美团的护城河</p><p>利润跌掉89%之后,很多人觉得美团的护城河并没有想象中坚不可摧,甚至怀疑美团有没有护城河。</p><p>新入局者短期内用几百亿轰击,无论多坚固的护城河都得抖三抖,更何况美团持续赚钱也是近三年刚有的事,一个季度净利润只有大约100亿元,而对家一入局就要豪掷500亿。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member51558/202509/wx_article__8721d8d21802bb5689c73ed0dbe5ed2b.jpg\"/><p>到底怎样才算有护城河?</p><p>看了很多关于护城河的资料,我觉得讲的最系统的是哥伦比亚大学商学院教授布鲁斯·格林<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688028\">沃尔德</a>,他写了一本书叫《竞争优势:透视企业护城河》,他认为有护城河的企业一般具有这样的特征:市场份额稳定且长期占支配地位;企业所在的行业新进入者不多;能持续保持高利润。</p><p>护城河是怎么建立起来的呢?格林沃尔德认为主要是两方面的结合:规模经济优势和客户锁定。</p><p>先来说规模经济优势,“规模经济”指的是在一定的产量范围内,固定成本变化不大,那么随着产量增加,新增的产品就可以分摊更多固定成本,从而使平均单位成本下降。</p><p>很多人其实对规模经济有误解,把规模经济等同于规模,这是差别很大的。</p><p>比如你开了100家店可能比开50家规模经济更差,因为开100家相应的租金、管理、人工等固定成本都在增加,分摊到每单产品中的成本可能反而升高了。</p><p>而且,你四处开店,肯定在每个区域都会遇到更激烈的竞争,由此产生的营销成本也更高,进一步提高单位产品成本,减低利润。</p><p>“客户锁定”是什么呢?其实就是客户心智,可能来源于使用习惯、用户体验、转化成本等等,总之就是有相当数量顾客能一直选用你的产品。用数据来观测就是<span>市场占有率</span>始终很高。</p><p>这两方面一旦互锁,威力强劲:平均单位成本低保证了你有足够的利润,新进入企业只要达不到相应的份额,平均单位成本就降不下来;而客户锁定维持了市场份额,保证了规模效应。</p><p>所以前面提到,阿里最终还是要平衡市场份额和平均单位成本,只有靠补贴带来的市场份额还是远远不够的。</p><p>从这两方面来看,美团是怎样的呢?</p><p>根据瑞银报告,当前外卖市场份额分布为美团65%、饿了么28%、京东7%。</p><p>而在平均单位成本方面,美团财报会透露出的数据显示,其与主要竞争对手的UE(单位利润)差从2元变为4元。也就是说,外卖大战前美团一单盈利1.5元,饿了么为-0.5元;外卖大战后美团一单亏2元,淘闪亏6元。美团在平均单位成本方面存在竞争优势。</p><p>但就此认为美团护城河很坚固也是不合理的,毕竟一开始也说了,存在护城河的企业是能持续保持高利润。美团利润这几年虽持续增长,但却被价格战暂时打断了。</p><p>这该怎么解释?</p><p>我认为还是跟挑战者的实力和体量有关,护城河的作用在于拦截竞争者,独享本行业的利润,能被挡在外面的竞争者越多,护城河越坚固。</p><p>刚开始面对京东外卖的挑战时,美团压力其实没有这么大,利润也保持了相对正常的水平,仍然有100多亿,说明京东外卖是能被美团的护城河拦截在外的挑战者。</p><p>但面对阿里这样的超级巨头级企业,一入局就能投入500亿来争夺市场,美团护城河的拦截作用就有所减弱。</p><p>简言之,护城河是动态的。如果这次美团最终能胜出,那反而能加固其护城河。</p><p>罗马不是一天建成的,护城河也不是短期挖出的。</p><p>格林沃尔德认为,如果行业存在进入壁垒,你又是主导企业,当遇到挑战者时只需要管理自身的竞争优势就可以。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250905114329668d163oi17qicnv4s\"/><p>图源:布鲁斯·格林沃尔德《竞争优势:透视企业护城河》</p><p>而当进入壁垒不存在或者不稳固了,高效运营(效率,效率,还是效率)就是唯一的头等大事。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千亿外卖大战,阿里已经赢了?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千亿外卖大战,阿里已经赢了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-05 11:41 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025090511565397793808&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>罗马不是一天建成的,护城河也不是短期挖出的。文 |浩然本文为商隐社原创文章,转载请联系后台淘宝闪购的叙事最近一段时间,“外卖三傻”京东、美团和阿里的新一季财报陆续出炉,让我们看到了外卖价格战的惨烈程度。二季度,京东收入同比增加22.4%,但净利润同比下降50.8%,粗略估算在外卖上烧掉了近140亿;美团收入同比增长11.7%,但净利润同比暴跌89%,大约烧掉了115亿;阿里家大业大,收入同比微增...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025090511565397793808&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0651947912.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","BK4558":"双十一","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","09618":"京东集团-SW","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1051769294.HKD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A6\"(HKDHDG) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) 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|浩然本文为商隐社原创文章,转载请联系后台淘宝闪购的叙事最近一段时间,“外卖三傻”京东、美团和阿里的新一季财报陆续出炉,让我们看到了外卖价格战的惨烈程度。二季度,京东收入同比增加22.4%,但净利润同比下降50.8%,粗略估算在外卖上烧掉了近140亿;美团收入同比增长11.7%,但净利润同比暴跌89%,大约烧掉了115亿;阿里家大业大,收入同比微增2%,但净利润同比下降18%,粗略估计也为“外卖大战”烧掉了百亿。而按照三家平台公布的计划,他们今年将会为外卖大战累计投入近千亿元。先后遭遇京东、阿里两大电商巨头的围攻、把外卖作为根基的美团看起来受伤最严重,财报发布后,其港股重挫10%,创去年九月来的股价新低。这里面也考虑到了七八月份外卖大战投入更大、战况更为激烈,美团流血更重,王兴也坦言:“预计三季度会因为战略投资,导致核心本地商业出现重大损失,但依然有信心未来行业会回复到合理水平”。与之相映衬的是,阿里在财报发布后股价大涨超12%。于是,不少媒体分析认为,阿里一出手就打掉了美团近90%的利润,而且未来一年对闪购还有几百亿的持续投入,更何况它的现金及其他流动投资高达5856.6亿元,是三家里面最多的(京东、美团分别为2234亿元、1711亿元),巨量资金砸下去,肯定能赢得外卖大战的最终胜利。但外卖毕竟是苦生意,无论之前的饿了么还是淘宝闪购,都是亏损的,巨量资金砸下去不能正常盈利怎么办?对于这个问题,蒋凡在财报会上也做出了说明,即阿里的逻辑并非为了外卖本身,而是用外卖这个高频场景来为增长放缓的淘宝引流。换言之,外卖业务的战略地位要放在一个大棋局上去看,其本身的盈利状况并不重要。更有一些分析人士认为,阿里每年从小红书、B站、抖音等渠道采买流量的费用就高达上千亿,外卖补贴相当于把这几百亿拿来补贴用户,不但同样给淘宝带来了流量,还维持了闪购业务的壮大。在这样一套叙事之下,无论从短期还是长期来看,淘宝闪购击败美团似乎只是时间问题。但这就属于对短期事件反应过度了。需要明确的是,阿里在财报后股价大涨,并不是因为其闪购业务的胜利,更多归因于阿里云超预期的、26%的增长,以及自研AI芯片。正如高盛在研报中所认为的,市场对阿里财报的初步积极反应主要归因于云业务的加速增长和超预期的资本支出。而事实上,淘宝闪购的叙事逻辑存在挺多漏洞。首先,外卖与电商的协同效应并不明显。蒋凡在财报会上披露了8月份日均8000万单的淘宝闪购拉动了淘宝APP日活上涨20%。但这是8月份的数据,或许第二季度时淘宝闪购订单数还未达到一个数量级,对日活带动并不明显。如此大力度的补贴,很多茶饮甚至可以领券免费喝,必然会带来月活的大幅提升。日活提升最终还是为了带来更多交易量,第二季度淘天最核心的客户管理收入(主要来自佣金和广告)增长了10%,但上一季度这个数字是12%,尚难看出闪购的带动作用。另外,本季阿里销售与市场费用为531亿元,比上年同期多出200多亿,有100多亿是用来补贴的,当下来看并没有抵消广告投入,至于什么时候外卖引流能替代广告投流的费用,还需要观察。此外,广告投流吸引的是主动点进来的相对高意向用户,与被低价券吸引来点外卖的用户还是有所区别的。其次,阿里做淘宝闪购仍是沿用“炮灰思维”。阿里这次推出淘宝闪购的决心和力度很大,也迅速取得了不错的成果,很多人又看到了那个能打的阿里。但淘宝闪购本质上还是为了解决淘宝主站的流量稀缺问题,这其实还是在沿用以往的思路,即这项业务本身的投入产出比并不重要,能有益于整个生态或给电商业务带来流量就算成功。阿里的优势在于强大的生态系统,也强调协同作战,而端坐于生态系统核心位置的就是电商业务。在阿里大踏步扩张的那些年,收购来的UC浏览器、优酷土豆、高德、饿了么等,都承担了给主站导流的重任。比如2018年阿里联合蚂蚁金服以95亿美元全资收购饿了么之后,时任饿了么CEO的王磊认为“从饿了么对阿里巴巴集团(本地生活入口、即时配送和支付场景)的三大价值来看,怎么投入都是划算的”。当时饿了么把三四线城市作为核心战场,因为阿里考虑到饿了么从下沉市场拉来一个新客户,就会带来带来一个支付宝新用户和手淘新用户。生态协同能让新业务借助生态圈内的力量补齐短板,快速破局,但也容易让新业务丧失发展主动权。如果一项新业务的存在一开始就锚定在为核心业务提供流量,那其发展就跟核心业务牢牢绑到了一块,如果核心业务遭遇困境,不惜花重金打造、没有造血能力的新业务处境就极其尴尬,沦为“炮灰”。根据高盛研报的测算,淘天第二季度GMV增速为5%左右,而拼多多、抖音电商、快手都维持了双位数增长。而且在阿里进攻外卖战场时,拼多多和抖音电商都在大力扶持中小商家,拼多多搞了“千亿扶持”,抖音电商累计投入了160多亿,它们都试图让更能捕捉消费者需求的优质中小商家在供给端实现升级,未来可能会对淘天进一步造成冲击。更为重要的是,目前淘宝闪购仍处于一种“战时状态”,依靠强补贴维持现有的单量,7月单月补贴峰值就超过了100亿元,此前汇丰预计2026财年阿里外卖业务每单亏损2.7元,即时零售每单亏损3.7元。低价退潮后,多少被低价吸引来的用户还会留下还是未知。阿里到底能不能赢,还是要看市场份额和平均单位成本的平衡。美团的护城河利润跌掉89%之后,很多人觉得美团的护城河并没有想象中坚不可摧,甚至怀疑美团有没有护城河。新入局者短期内用几百亿轰击,无论多坚固的护城河都得抖三抖,更何况美团持续赚钱也是近三年刚有的事,一个季度净利润只有大约100亿元,而对家一入局就要豪掷500亿。到底怎样才算有护城河?看了很多关于护城河的资料,我觉得讲的最系统的是哥伦比亚大学商学院教授布鲁斯·格林沃尔德,他写了一本书叫《竞争优势:透视企业护城河》,他认为有护城河的企业一般具有这样的特征:市场份额稳定且长期占支配地位;企业所在的行业新进入者不多;能持续保持高利润。护城河是怎么建立起来的呢?格林沃尔德认为主要是两方面的结合:规模经济优势和客户锁定。先来说规模经济优势,“规模经济”指的是在一定的产量范围内,固定成本变化不大,那么随着产量增加,新增的产品就可以分摊更多固定成本,从而使平均单位成本下降。很多人其实对规模经济有误解,把规模经济等同于规模,这是差别很大的。比如你开了100家店可能比开50家规模经济更差,因为开100家相应的租金、管理、人工等固定成本都在增加,分摊到每单产品中的成本可能反而升高了。而且,你四处开店,肯定在每个区域都会遇到更激烈的竞争,由此产生的营销成本也更高,进一步提高单位产品成本,减低利润。“客户锁定”是什么呢?其实就是客户心智,可能来源于使用习惯、用户体验、转化成本等等,总之就是有相当数量顾客能一直选用你的产品。用数据来观测就是市场占有率始终很高。这两方面一旦互锁,威力强劲:平均单位成本低保证了你有足够的利润,新进入企业只要达不到相应的份额,平均单位成本就降不下来;而客户锁定维持了市场份额,保证了规模效应。所以前面提到,阿里最终还是要平衡市场份额和平均单位成本,只有靠补贴带来的市场份额还是远远不够的。从这两方面来看,美团是怎样的呢?根据瑞银报告,当前外卖市场份额分布为美团65%、饿了么28%、京东7%。而在平均单位成本方面,美团财报会透露出的数据显示,其与主要竞争对手的UE(单位利润)差从2元变为4元。也就是说,外卖大战前美团一单盈利1.5元,饿了么为-0.5元;外卖大战后美团一单亏2元,淘闪亏6元。美团在平均单位成本方面存在竞争优势。但就此认为美团护城河很坚固也是不合理的,毕竟一开始也说了,存在护城河的企业是能持续保持高利润。美团利润这几年虽持续增长,但却被价格战暂时打断了。这该怎么解释?我认为还是跟挑战者的实力和体量有关,护城河的作用在于拦截竞争者,独享本行业的利润,能被挡在外面的竞争者越多,护城河越坚固。刚开始面对京东外卖的挑战时,美团压力其实没有这么大,利润也保持了相对正常的水平,仍然有100多亿,说明京东外卖是能被美团的护城河拦截在外的挑战者。但面对阿里这样的超级巨头级企业,一入局就能投入500亿来争夺市场,美团护城河的拦截作用就有所减弱。简言之,护城河是动态的。如果这次美团最终能胜出,那反而能加固其护城河。罗马不是一天建成的,护城河也不是短期挖出的。格林沃尔德认为,如果行业存在进入壁垒,你又是主导企业,当遇到挑战者时只需要管理自身的竞争优势就可以。图源:布鲁斯·格林沃尔德《竞争优势:透视企业护城河》而当进入壁垒不存在或者不稳固了,高效运营(效率,效率,还是效率)就是唯一的头等大事。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.6,"BABA":1,"ALBmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":475625295093832,"gmtCreate":1757123034147,"gmtModify":1757123035845,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475625295093832","repostId":"2565536651","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2565536651","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1757050202,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2565536651?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-05 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"七年来首次温和涨价?大摩:下周的苹果发布会,所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565536651","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利预测,苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式,实现七年来首次“温和涨价”,推动iPhone平均售价增长5%,将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真,不仅有望抵消成本压力,还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒,成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摩根士丹利预测,苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式,实现七年来首次“温和涨价”,推动iPhone平均售价增长5%,将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真,不仅有望抵消成本压力,还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒,成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。</p></blockquote><p>随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>秋季发布会临近,投资者的目光正越过新产品本身,聚焦于一个更关键的问题:价格。</p><p>据追风交易台消息,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在9月4日发布的报告中指出,苹果或将通过一系列微妙的产品线调整,<strong>实现七年以来对iPhone的首次“温和涨价”。而这可能成为公司股价上涨的催化剂。</strong></p><p>分析师Erik W Woodring预测,即将发布的iPhone 17系列虽然在<strong>产品功能上可能不会带来太多意外</strong>,但其定价策略可能是整场活动的核心看点。该行预计,苹果不会直接上调现有型号的同配置价格,而是通过更巧妙的方式提升整体售价。</p><p>这一策略的关键在于两点。首先,报告预测苹果将取消iPhone 17 Pro的128GB入门级存储版本,这意味着Pro系列的起步存储容量将变为256GB,<strong>其起步价也将随之升至1099美元,较前代999美元(128GB)的起步价提高100美元。</strong></p><p>其次,备受关注的新款超薄机型<strong>iPhone 17 Air起售价预计为999美元(256GB)</strong>,这比它所取代的iPhone 16 Plus机型高出100美元。同时,iPhone 17 Air将新增1TB版本(定价1399美元),而其他型号的同容量价格保持不变。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5322438e0adb344d6d36396c7f02cdc3\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"685\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2923218454\">涨价逻辑:抵消关税及成本压力</h2><p>报告分析,涨价主要源于两个因素:一是抵消进口关税和零部件价格上涨带来的成本压力,二是通过存储配置调整驱动用户选择更高价位机型。</p><p><strong>这一潜在的定价举措,是摩根士丹利看好苹果业绩前景的核心原因。</strong>该行预测,此举将推动苹果2026财年的iPhone平均售价(ASP)同比增长5%至939美元。相比之下,市场普遍预期仅为增长1%至910美元,<strong>暗示着苹果的营收和利润潜力可能被低估。</strong></p><p>由于市场共识对iPhone销量和价格增长的预期相对平淡,此次发布会可能一反常态,扭转以往发布会引发的“卖出事件”,转变为一个积极的催化剂,为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑。</p><p>尽管价格上调,分析师认为其影响可控:“这些涨幅较为温和,若分摊到2-3年的换机周期后,不太可能对(消费者的购买)需求构成实质性阻碍。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8439adc5cd40973a62dcf64413384ea\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"555\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3625939728\">发布会本身惊喜不大</h2><p>报告认为,此次发布会预计不会出现重大意外。iPhone 17系列将包括常规的iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max,以及全新超薄机型iPhone 17 Air,其采用单后置摄像头和苹果自研C1调制解调器。</p><p>此外,苹果还将推出Apple Watch Series 11、Ultra 3、SE 3和AirPods Pro 3。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7426516c563880e31e136a1b5d316fa\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"559\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3452828535\">销量预期保守,或存上行空间</h2><p>尽管价格看涨,摩根士丹利与市场共识目前对iPhone 17的销量增长均持保守态度,<strong>预计2026财年出货量将与前一年基本持平,约为2.36亿部。</strong>这一预测意味着用户的平均换机周期将进一步拉长至接近5年。</p><p>然而,报告同时指出,这一保守预期本身可能蕴含着上行风险。摩根士丹利引用其早前的调查数据称,截至2025年3月,有51%的美国iPhone用户表示在未来12个月内“极有可能”升级设备,创下历史新高。此外,30%的美国iPhone用户对超薄机型表现出“极大兴趣”。</p><p>不过,价格敏感性依然是一个需要警惕的风险。<strong>一份于2025年7月在中国进行的调查显示,如果iPhone 17价格上涨5%,25%的中国消费者表示他们升级的可能性会降低。</strong>综合来看,分析师认为当前的出货量预期设定合理,但未来的风险更偏向于上行而非下行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562929b3d339d184ef7748f6c966eb09\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"605\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_135836219\">打破“卖出新闻”魔咒?</h2><p>从历史上看,苹果的iPhone发布会往往是“卖出新闻”(sell the news)的典型事件,即股价在事件兑现后出现回调。这通常是因为市场预期在发布会前已被充分计价,甚至过度乐观。</p><p>但摩根士丹利认为,今年的情况可能有所不同。报告分析称,当前市场对苹果2026财年iPhone收入增长的普遍预期仅为4%,远低于过去十年的历史平均水平,2011-2020年间同期平均预期为9%。</p><p>因此,如果摩根士丹利关于定价策略的判断是正确的,那么iPhone 17的发布会结果很可能超出市场偏低的预期。届时,这一事件不仅不会成为负面催化剂,反而可能引发分析师上调盈利预测,为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑,从而打破近年来的“发布会魔咒”。</p><p>报告总结称:“若定价策略超预期,发布会可能成为股价的积极催化剂,推动估值修复和业绩上修。”摩根士丹利对苹果股票评级为“增持”,目标价240美元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>七年来首次温和涨价?大摩:下周的苹果发布会,所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n七年来首次温和涨价?大摩:下周的苹果发布会,所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-05 13:30 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754992><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利预测,苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式,实现七年来首次“温和涨价”,推动iPhone平均售价增长5%,将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真,不仅有望抵消成本压力,还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒,成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。随着苹果秋季发布会临近,投资者的目光正越过新产品本身,聚焦于一个更关键的问题:价格。据追风交易台消息,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754992\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d9ba94a347164a5cd3ec1bac06488","relate_stocks":{"LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR 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ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754992","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2565536651","content_text":"摩根士丹利预测,苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式,实现七年来首次“温和涨价”,推动iPhone平均售价增长5%,将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真,不仅有望抵消成本压力,还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒,成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。随着苹果秋季发布会临近,投资者的目光正越过新产品本身,聚焦于一个更关键的问题:价格。据追风交易台消息,摩根士丹利在9月4日发布的报告中指出,苹果或将通过一系列微妙的产品线调整,实现七年以来对iPhone的首次“温和涨价”。而这可能成为公司股价上涨的催化剂。分析师Erik W Woodring预测,即将发布的iPhone 17系列虽然在产品功能上可能不会带来太多意外,但其定价策略可能是整场活动的核心看点。该行预计,苹果不会直接上调现有型号的同配置价格,而是通过更巧妙的方式提升整体售价。这一策略的关键在于两点。首先,报告预测苹果将取消iPhone 17 Pro的128GB入门级存储版本,这意味着Pro系列的起步存储容量将变为256GB,其起步价也将随之升至1099美元,较前代999美元(128GB)的起步价提高100美元。其次,备受关注的新款超薄机型iPhone 17 Air起售价预计为999美元(256GB),这比它所取代的iPhone 16 Plus机型高出100美元。同时,iPhone 17 Air将新增1TB版本(定价1399美元),而其他型号的同容量价格保持不变。涨价逻辑:抵消关税及成本压力报告分析,涨价主要源于两个因素:一是抵消进口关税和零部件价格上涨带来的成本压力,二是通过存储配置调整驱动用户选择更高价位机型。这一潜在的定价举措,是摩根士丹利看好苹果业绩前景的核心原因。该行预测,此举将推动苹果2026财年的iPhone平均售价(ASP)同比增长5%至939美元。相比之下,市场普遍预期仅为增长1%至910美元,暗示着苹果的营收和利润潜力可能被低估。由于市场共识对iPhone销量和价格增长的预期相对平淡,此次发布会可能一反常态,扭转以往发布会引发的“卖出事件”,转变为一个积极的催化剂,为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑。尽管价格上调,分析师认为其影响可控:“这些涨幅较为温和,若分摊到2-3年的换机周期后,不太可能对(消费者的购买)需求构成实质性阻碍。”发布会本身惊喜不大报告认为,此次发布会预计不会出现重大意外。iPhone 17系列将包括常规的iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max,以及全新超薄机型iPhone 17 Air,其采用单后置摄像头和苹果自研C1调制解调器。此外,苹果还将推出Apple Watch Series 11、Ultra 3、SE 3和AirPods Pro 3。销量预期保守,或存上行空间尽管价格看涨,摩根士丹利与市场共识目前对iPhone 17的销量增长均持保守态度,预计2026财年出货量将与前一年基本持平,约为2.36亿部。这一预测意味着用户的平均换机周期将进一步拉长至接近5年。然而,报告同时指出,这一保守预期本身可能蕴含着上行风险。摩根士丹利引用其早前的调查数据称,截至2025年3月,有51%的美国iPhone用户表示在未来12个月内“极有可能”升级设备,创下历史新高。此外,30%的美国iPhone用户对超薄机型表现出“极大兴趣”。不过,价格敏感性依然是一个需要警惕的风险。一份于2025年7月在中国进行的调查显示,如果iPhone 17价格上涨5%,25%的中国消费者表示他们升级的可能性会降低。综合来看,分析师认为当前的出货量预期设定合理,但未来的风险更偏向于上行而非下行。打破“卖出新闻”魔咒?从历史上看,苹果的iPhone发布会往往是“卖出新闻”(sell the news)的典型事件,即股价在事件兑现后出现回调。这通常是因为市场预期在发布会前已被充分计价,甚至过度乐观。但摩根士丹利认为,今年的情况可能有所不同。报告分析称,当前市场对苹果2026财年iPhone收入增长的普遍预期仅为4%,远低于过去十年的历史平均水平,2011-2020年间同期平均预期为9%。因此,如果摩根士丹利关于定价策略的判断是正确的,那么iPhone 17的发布会结果很可能超出市场偏低的预期。届时,这一事件不仅不会成为负面催化剂,反而可能引发分析师上调盈利预测,为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑,从而打破近年来的“发布会魔咒”。报告总结称:“若定价策略超预期,发布会可能成为股价的积极催化剂,推动估值修复和业绩上修。”摩根士丹利对苹果股票评级为“增持”,目标价240美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473005335896120,"gmtCreate":1756503555209,"gmtModify":1756503556602,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473005335896120","repostId":"1183522475","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183522475","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1755269046,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183522475?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-15 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"半导体关税风暴将至?特朗普宣称税率或高达300%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183522475","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国商务部已启动对半导体和制药业的调查。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在前往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会的空军一号专机上向记者透露,<strong>他计划在未来两周内对半导体产品加征关税,这成为其大幅扩展关税政策体系的最新动向。</strong>特朗普表示:“下周和下下周,我将宣布对钢铁、芯片和半导体加征关税。”</p><p>在周五的最新表态中,<strong>特朗普暗示对进口半导体征收的实际关税税率可能远超此前提到的100%。他反问记者:"我的税率会定在200%还是300%?"</strong></p><p>截至发稿,英伟达、博通跌1.5%,AMD、迈威尔科技跌超2%,美光跌3.6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b183e69cd792dd86f54368077a442d0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,特朗普在6月已将钢铁和铝的进口关税提升至50%,但此次是否涉及钢铁关税的进一步调整尚不明确。尽管这位总统多次承诺将在数周内对芯片和医药行业加征关税,但目前仍未发布正式公告。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自今年4月起,美国商务部已启动对半导体和制药行业的调查,这是特朗普政府以"国家安全"为由征收关税的必要程序。不过此类调查通常耗时数月甚至更久,流程较为复杂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于芯片广泛应用于消费电子产品和人工智能领域,制造商及科技公司迫切希望了解特朗普的半导体关税具体方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周,特朗普在与苹果公司(AAPL.US)首席执行官蒂姆·库克的公开活动中曾表示,计划对进口半导体征收100%的关税,但承诺对将生产线转移至美国的企业给予豁免。白宫尚未就豁免机制出台细则,但特朗普暗示苹果公司可能符合条件——该公司此前已承诺投入6000亿美元推进本土制造计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,这位总统还表示,将在与普京的会晤中讨论关税议题,并注意到俄方拟邀请商界领袖参会:"我注意到他带了很多俄罗斯商人,这很好,我喜欢他们做生意的意愿。但在战争问题解决前,商业合作无从谈起。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期特朗普还威胁对俄罗斯能源买家加码关税,包括承诺对印度商品征收50%关税,并暗示若会谈进展不顺,可能进一步加大对俄经济施压。这一系列动作显示出其关税政策正从传统贸易领域向地缘政治博弈延伸。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半导体关税风暴将至?特朗普宣称税率或高达300%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半导体关税风暴将至?特朗普宣称税率或高达300%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-15 22:44 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330454.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在前往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会的空军一号专机上向记者透露,他计划在未来两周内对半导体产品加征关税,这成为其大幅扩展关税政策体系的最新动向。特朗普表示:“下周和下下周,我将宣布对钢铁、芯片和半导体加征关税。”在周五的最新表态中,特朗普暗示对进口半导体征收的实际关税税率可能远超此前提到的100%。他反问记者:\"我的税率会定在200%还是300%?\"截至发稿,英伟达、博通跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330454.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","SMCI":"超微电脑","AMD":"美国超微公司","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","AVGO":"博通","ARM":"ARM Holdings","TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330454.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1183522475","content_text":"美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在前往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会的空军一号专机上向记者透露,他计划在未来两周内对半导体产品加征关税,这成为其大幅扩展关税政策体系的最新动向。特朗普表示:“下周和下下周,我将宣布对钢铁、芯片和半导体加征关税。”在周五的最新表态中,特朗普暗示对进口半导体征收的实际关税税率可能远超此前提到的100%。他反问记者:\"我的税率会定在200%还是300%?\"截至发稿,英伟达、博通跌1.5%,AMD、迈威尔科技跌超2%,美光跌3.6%。值得注意的是,特朗普在6月已将钢铁和铝的进口关税提升至50%,但此次是否涉及钢铁关税的进一步调整尚不明确。尽管这位总统多次承诺将在数周内对芯片和医药行业加征关税,但目前仍未发布正式公告。自今年4月起,美国商务部已启动对半导体和制药行业的调查,这是特朗普政府以\"国家安全\"为由征收关税的必要程序。不过此类调查通常耗时数月甚至更久,流程较为复杂。由于芯片广泛应用于消费电子产品和人工智能领域,制造商及科技公司迫切希望了解特朗普的半导体关税具体方案。上周,特朗普在与苹果公司(AAPL.US)首席执行官蒂姆·库克的公开活动中曾表示,计划对进口半导体征收100%的关税,但承诺对将生产线转移至美国的企业给予豁免。白宫尚未就豁免机制出台细则,但特朗普暗示苹果公司可能符合条件——该公司此前已承诺投入6000亿美元推进本土制造计划。此外,这位总统还表示,将在与普京的会晤中讨论关税议题,并注意到俄方拟邀请商界领袖参会:\"我注意到他带了很多俄罗斯商人,这很好,我喜欢他们做生意的意愿。但在战争问题解决前,商业合作无从谈起。\"近期特朗普还威胁对俄罗斯能源买家加码关税,包括承诺对印度商品征收50%关税,并暗示若会谈进展不顺,可能进一步加大对俄经济施压。这一系列动作显示出其关税政策正从传统贸易领域向地缘政治博弈延伸。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":1.1,"ARM":1.1,"AVGO":1.1,"INTC":1.1,"MU":1.1,"NVDA":1.1,"QCOM":1.1,"SMCI":1.1,"TSM":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472970456986160,"gmtCreate":1756503026694,"gmtModify":1756503028479,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472970456986160","repostId":"1143336870","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143336870","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1756474727,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143336870?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143336870","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"转为由国内一家企业代工。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息:<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息:<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5177d7812ef76cff1bd9b42843979808","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","BABA":"阿里巴巴","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143336870","content_text":"周五, 阿里巴巴 盘初大涨超9%。同时, 英伟达 快速下挫超3%, 台积电 跌超2%。市场消息:阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"NVDA":1.1,"TSM":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472592687890560,"gmtCreate":1756410826227,"gmtModify":1756410827229,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472592687890560","repostId":"1182394706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182394706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球快讯第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股速递","id":"1004306016","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1756410206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182394706?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 03:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182394706","media":"美股速递","summary":"英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施","content":"<p>英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1004306016\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股速递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 03:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>英伟达CEO称预计未来十年将建设价值3至4万亿美元的AI工厂基础设施</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4614":"Manus概念股","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" 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21:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"关税风险消退+定价潜力,大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US):iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2559914079","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司iPhone 9月当季销量的预测,将原本预计的5000万部上调8%至5400万部。值得注意的是,此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型,各新增200万部产能。展望2025年下半年,分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间,同比下降5%至1%。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平,9月季度存在更大的补库空间,这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>上调了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测,将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01126\">德林</a>为首的分析团队指出,这一调整源于多重积极因素:iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等,这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。</p><p>分析师强调,此前担忧的峰值关税风险(如第232条款)已基本消退,监管对短期业绩的冲击也弱于市场预期(尽管仍是长期风险)。此外,苹果的定价策略被低估——其服务价格已两年未调整,未来可通过这一杠杆释放增长潜力。当前苹果股价相对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的交易水平,与过去五年平均水平基本一致,估值具备支撑。</p><p>值得注意的是,此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型,各新增200万部产能。不过摩根士丹利表示,其内部预测的5500万部销量已部分涵盖这一增量,较修正后的5400万部预测高出约80万部。</p><p>展望2025年下半年,分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间,同比下降5%至1%(2024年同期为8400万部)。同时指出,12月季度iPhone生产的季节性波动通常大于9月季度,过去五年(排除2020-2021年疫情特殊期)的环比增幅范围在35%至71%之间。</p><p>该团队还观察到,当前市场对iPhone的估计正呈现上调趋势,而历史上苹果股价在估计修正期间常伴随估值扩张。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平,9月季度存在更大的补库空间,这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关税风险消退+定价潜力,大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US):iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关税风险消退+定价潜力,大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US):iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-15 21:18 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测,将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出,这一调整源于多重积极因素:iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等,这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调,此前担忧的峰值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC 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OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2559914079","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测,将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出,这一调整源于多重积极因素:iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等,这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调,此前担忧的峰值关税风险(如第232条款)已基本消退,监管对短期业绩的冲击也弱于市场预期(尽管仍是长期风险)。此外,苹果的定价策略被低估——其服务价格已两年未调整,未来可通过这一杠杆释放增长潜力。当前苹果股价相对标普500指数的交易水平,与过去五年平均水平基本一致,估值具备支撑。值得注意的是,此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型,各新增200万部产能。不过摩根士丹利表示,其内部预测的5500万部销量已部分涵盖这一增量,较修正后的5400万部预测高出约80万部。展望2025年下半年,分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间,同比下降5%至1%(2024年同期为8400万部)。同时指出,12月季度iPhone生产的季节性波动通常大于9月季度,过去五年(排除2020-2021年疫情特殊期)的环比增幅范围在35%至71%之间。该团队还观察到,当前市场对iPhone的估计正呈现上调趋势,而历史上苹果股价在估计修正期间常伴随估值扩张。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平,9月季度存在更大的补库空间,这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"MACW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":468529964204168,"gmtCreate":1755416250896,"gmtModify":1755416252560,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/468529964204168","repostId":"2559198759","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2559198759","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1755256461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2559198759?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-15 19:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2559198759","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为苹果的情况可能即将出现转机。”该公司提到了iPhone的积极发展趋势、苹果的定价","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\r\n 摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为苹果的情况可能即将出现转机。”该公司提到了iPhone的积极发展趋势、苹果的定价能力并认为 “我们已度过关税风险的高峰期”同时 “监管因素并非如担忧的那样构成重大的短期阻力”。 </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利表示苹果公司的股价近期呈上涨趋势可能还有更大的上涨空间。分析师埃里克・伍德林写道:“我们正变得更加乐观并且认为</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU2083900584.USD":"HSBC GIF US INCOME FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED 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“监管因素并非如担忧的那样构成重大的短期阻力”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"MACW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420964516676192,"gmtCreate":1743805603013,"gmtModify":1743805604559,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420964516676192","repostId":"420779614937496","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":420779614937496,"gmtCreate":1743760038273,"gmtModify":1745204296593,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空jun大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"74125836878304","authorIdStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"title":"美股大跌以后就是抄底的好机会","htmlText":"昨天美股在特朗普的关税大棒一下血流成河,我一直说过,美国加关税是一个七伤拳,美国的经济会受到特别大的伤害,美股最先反应过来的,道琼斯纳斯达克都是暴跌,美元指数暴跌,不过美元暴跌倒是对美国的出口是一件好事,因为美元贬值以后出口的商品就便宜了,但是进口的商品就更贵了,估计那些红脖子是买不起进口产品了,因为美元贬值以后他们的购买力就下降了,还有加了关税以后,进口的商品会更贵了。 我这一个月对关税说得特别多,我一直说了,驱赶非法移民会让美国的服务业价格上涨,加关税会让美国的商品变得更贵,特朗普一直说加的关税是由生产商出,这是特朗普骗红脖子的,这些人因为没有读书,不懂经济学常识,所以给特朗普骗了,因为美国进口的商品基本上都是毛利润在10%左右的商品,如果把关税加了20%以上,这些厂家如果按原价卖,就会直接破产,这个世界上犯fa的买卖有人做,但是亏本的买卖是没有人干的,不可能亏本把商品出口给美国人,所以只会涨价,那涨价最终买单的就是美国的消费者,关税实际上就是一种消费税,是由消费者买单的。 特朗普的内阁因为没有技术官僚,全部是一群业余的草台班子,包括特朗普自己也没有多少文化,他是红脖子的老大吗,大部分红脖子一辈子没有离开自己的家乡,更没有出过国,一个是穷,第二个是没有文化,加上素质也低,低收入,低学历,低素质,所以叫3D人员,他们这些人来管理美国这个国家,自然会搞得鸡飞狗跳,美国的人均GDP在所有的工业国家里面是最高的,工资也是七大工业国里面最高的,但是特朗普一直说这些国家占了美国的便宜,如果占了美国的便宜,应该他们的工资比美国人的工资高,为什么还低呢,欧洲的总人口有5亿人,美国只有3亿多人,但是欧洲的GDP总量以20年前是高于美国的,现在远远低于美国,谁占谁便宜,一目了然。 美国拥有全世界利润最高的几个行业,芯片,软件,互联网,创新药,医疗器械,这些行业的毛利润高达50%以上,而汽车","listText":"昨天美股在特朗普的关税大棒一下血流成河,我一直说过,美国加关税是一个七伤拳,美国的经济会受到特别大的伤害,美股最先反应过来的,道琼斯纳斯达克都是暴跌,美元指数暴跌,不过美元暴跌倒是对美国的出口是一件好事,因为美元贬值以后出口的商品就便宜了,但是进口的商品就更贵了,估计那些红脖子是买不起进口产品了,因为美元贬值以后他们的购买力就下降了,还有加了关税以后,进口的商品会更贵了。 我这一个月对关税说得特别多,我一直说了,驱赶非法移民会让美国的服务业价格上涨,加关税会让美国的商品变得更贵,特朗普一直说加的关税是由生产商出,这是特朗普骗红脖子的,这些人因为没有读书,不懂经济学常识,所以给特朗普骗了,因为美国进口的商品基本上都是毛利润在10%左右的商品,如果把关税加了20%以上,这些厂家如果按原价卖,就会直接破产,这个世界上犯fa的买卖有人做,但是亏本的买卖是没有人干的,不可能亏本把商品出口给美国人,所以只会涨价,那涨价最终买单的就是美国的消费者,关税实际上就是一种消费税,是由消费者买单的。 特朗普的内阁因为没有技术官僚,全部是一群业余的草台班子,包括特朗普自己也没有多少文化,他是红脖子的老大吗,大部分红脖子一辈子没有离开自己的家乡,更没有出过国,一个是穷,第二个是没有文化,加上素质也低,低收入,低学历,低素质,所以叫3D人员,他们这些人来管理美国这个国家,自然会搞得鸡飞狗跳,美国的人均GDP在所有的工业国家里面是最高的,工资也是七大工业国里面最高的,但是特朗普一直说这些国家占了美国的便宜,如果占了美国的便宜,应该他们的工资比美国人的工资高,为什么还低呢,欧洲的总人口有5亿人,美国只有3亿多人,但是欧洲的GDP总量以20年前是高于美国的,现在远远低于美国,谁占谁便宜,一目了然。 美国拥有全世界利润最高的几个行业,芯片,软件,互联网,创新药,医疗器械,这些行业的毛利润高达50%以上,而汽车","text":"昨天美股在特朗普的关税大棒一下血流成河,我一直说过,美国加关税是一个七伤拳,美国的经济会受到特别大的伤害,美股最先反应过来的,道琼斯纳斯达克都是暴跌,美元指数暴跌,不过美元暴跌倒是对美国的出口是一件好事,因为美元贬值以后出口的商品就便宜了,但是进口的商品就更贵了,估计那些红脖子是买不起进口产品了,因为美元贬值以后他们的购买力就下降了,还有加了关税以后,进口的商品会更贵了。 我这一个月对关税说得特别多,我一直说了,驱赶非法移民会让美国的服务业价格上涨,加关税会让美国的商品变得更贵,特朗普一直说加的关税是由生产商出,这是特朗普骗红脖子的,这些人因为没有读书,不懂经济学常识,所以给特朗普骗了,因为美国进口的商品基本上都是毛利润在10%左右的商品,如果把关税加了20%以上,这些厂家如果按原价卖,就会直接破产,这个世界上犯fa的买卖有人做,但是亏本的买卖是没有人干的,不可能亏本把商品出口给美国人,所以只会涨价,那涨价最终买单的就是美国的消费者,关税实际上就是一种消费税,是由消费者买单的。 特朗普的内阁因为没有技术官僚,全部是一群业余的草台班子,包括特朗普自己也没有多少文化,他是红脖子的老大吗,大部分红脖子一辈子没有离开自己的家乡,更没有出过国,一个是穷,第二个是没有文化,加上素质也低,低收入,低学历,低素质,所以叫3D人员,他们这些人来管理美国这个国家,自然会搞得鸡飞狗跳,美国的人均GDP在所有的工业国家里面是最高的,工资也是七大工业国里面最高的,但是特朗普一直说这些国家占了美国的便宜,如果占了美国的便宜,应该他们的工资比美国人的工资高,为什么还低呢,欧洲的总人口有5亿人,美国只有3亿多人,但是欧洲的GDP总量以20年前是高于美国的,现在远远低于美国,谁占谁便宜,一目了然。 美国拥有全世界利润最高的几个行业,芯片,软件,互联网,创新药,医疗器械,这些行业的毛利润高达50%以上,而汽车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420779614937496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397759519326752,"gmtCreate":1738131428423,"gmtModify":1738131430516,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397759519326752","repostId":"1122646398","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122646398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738124339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122646398?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-29 12:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国不只有DeepSeek,阿里除夕夜抛出重磅新模型,是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122646398","media":"硬AI","summary":"继DeepSeek之后,Qwen2.5-Max的发布是中国AI阵营在高性能、低成本技术路线上的又一重要突破。市场人士分析称,此前过度聚焦DeepSeek,却忽视了包括阿里通义在内的中国AI整体性追赶。02是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?如果说DeepSeek V3的横空出世展现了中国AI的锐度,那么本次阿里的突破则体现了产业生态的深度进化。如果阿里Qwen-2.5-max的性能确实展现出预期水平,加之其低成本优势与完整云生态,有理由期待,它将引发DeepSeek之后的中国AI资产新一轮重估。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>当阿里云展现出"强大模型+充足算力+完整云平台"的组合优势时,是否印证了类似去年北美云计算服务商的投资逻辑?</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">农历除夕夜,在全球华人喜迎新春之时,纽约证券交易所的电子屏上,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股价在收盘前出现显著异动——从涨幅1%快速拉升至6.7%。</strong></p><p><strong>行情异动的背后,是一场没有硝烟的技术奇袭。</strong></p><p>1月29日凌晨,<strong>阿里通义千问团队悄然上线的大模型Qwen2.5-Max,在多个权威基准测试中展现出与全球顶级模型比肩的性能。</strong></p><p>继DeepSeek之后,Qwen2.5-Max的发布是中国AI阵营在高性能、低成本技术路线上的又一重要突破。</p><p>市场人士分析称,此前过度聚焦DeepSeek,却忽视了包括阿里通义在内的中国AI整体性追赶。行业媒体《信息平权》表示,若阿里Qwen-2.5-max这次的确性能超过V3,可以对其RL推理模型给予更大期待。</p><p>进一步,<strong>当阿里云展现出"强大模型+充足算力+完整云平台"的组合优势时,是否印证了类似去年北美云计算服务商的投资逻辑?</strong></p><p><strong>如果美股因AI整体增值10万亿美元,中国AI资产的重估时机是否已至?</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/945e5aa938102a1aed4c87ce9d700949\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2365375765\">01</h2><h2 id=\"id_318324864\">全面对标全球顶级模型,百万token里程碑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Qwen2.5-Max采用超大规模MoE(混合专家)架构,基于超过20万亿token的预训练数据。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6439d2475856310facd7416ab158b92d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"91\"/></p><p>在测试大学水平知识的MMLU-Pro、评估编程能力的LiveCodeBench、综合能力评估的LiveBench,以及近似人类偏好的Arena-Hard等多个权威评测中,<strong><em>该模型均展现出与DeepSeek V3、GPT-4和Claude-3.5-Sonnet比肩,甚至领先的性能。</em></strong></p><p>阿里团队表示,随着后训练技术的不断进步,下一个版本将有望达到更高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbd329ef3dbf3bb78af23f1cb1541cf\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"581\"/></p><p>Qwen2.5团队同步发布了两个创新型号:Qwen2.5-7b-instruct-1m和Qwen2.5-14b-instruct-1m。<strong><em>这些开源模型支持高达100万token的上下文窗口,成为业内首个达到此规模的公开可用模型。</em></strong></p><p>这些模型使用稀疏注意力,只关注上下文中最重要的部分。这种方法处理百万token输入的速度比传统方法快3到7倍,输出长度可达8000个token。然而,这需要模型识别上下文文档中的关键段落——这是当前语言模型经常难以完成的任务。</p><p>在测试中,14B型号和Qwen2.5-Turbo在查找非常长的文档中的隐藏数字时都达到了完美的准确性。较小的7B型号也表现良好,只有轻微的错误。</p><p>在RULER、LV-Eval和LongbenchChat等要求更高的复杂的上下文测试中,百万token模型的表现优于128K token模型,尤其是在超过64K token的序列中,14B型号甚至在RULER中得分超过90分——这是Qwen系列的第一次——在多个数据集上持续击败gpt - 4o mini。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2122b709ee813735624bb80c0615af4d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_479248133\">02</h2><h2 id=\"id_4279666145\">是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果说DeepSeek V3的横空出世展现了中国AI的锐度,那么本次阿里的突破则体现了产业生态的深度进化。</p><p>在Qwen2.5-Max发布当天,阿里云百炼平台同步开放了完整的工具链支持,开发者可以直接在云端调用。这种"超算集群+开源生态+云原生"的三位一体架构,与北美AWS、Azure、GCP三大云服务商的商业模式形成镜像。</p><p>此外,根据我们之前提到的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>最新研报,低成本高性能模型也将重塑数据中心和软件行业格局:</p><blockquote><p>对于中国数据中心而言,短期内,如果大型科技公司采用类似技术路线,可能减少AI训练相关需求。但从长远来看,低成本模型将推动推理需求增长,对一线城市数据中心形成利好;</p><p>对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600536\">中国软件</a>行业,AI模型成本的降低将降低应用程序运行AI功能的门槛,从供给侧改善行业环境。</p></blockquote><p>如果阿里Qwen-2.5-max的性能确实展现出预期水平,加之其低成本优势与完整云生态,有理由期待,它将引发DeepSeek之后的中国AI资产新一轮重估。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1690508328926","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9Xsd4MieeNUHDxC2SGBZEQ><strong>硬AI</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当阿里云展现出\"强大模型+充足算力+完整云平台\"的组合优势时,是否印证了类似去年北美云计算服务商的投资逻辑?农历除夕夜,在全球华人喜迎新春之时,纽约证券交易所的电子屏上,阿里巴巴股价在收盘前出现显著异动——从涨幅1%快速拉升至6.7%。行情异动的背后,是一场没有硝烟的技术奇袭。1月29日凌晨,阿里通义千问团队悄然上线的大模型Qwen2.5-Max,在多个权威基准测试中展现出与全球顶级模型比肩的性能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9Xsd4MieeNUHDxC2SGBZEQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af72d99d957fc5b849074d7b8b86dd9a","relate_stocks":{"LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4558":"双十一","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","BK4538":"云计算","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9Xsd4MieeNUHDxC2SGBZEQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122646398","content_text":"当阿里云展现出\"强大模型+充足算力+完整云平台\"的组合优势时,是否印证了类似去年北美云计算服务商的投资逻辑?农历除夕夜,在全球华人喜迎新春之时,纽约证券交易所的电子屏上,阿里巴巴股价在收盘前出现显著异动——从涨幅1%快速拉升至6.7%。行情异动的背后,是一场没有硝烟的技术奇袭。1月29日凌晨,阿里通义千问团队悄然上线的大模型Qwen2.5-Max,在多个权威基准测试中展现出与全球顶级模型比肩的性能。继DeepSeek之后,Qwen2.5-Max的发布是中国AI阵营在高性能、低成本技术路线上的又一重要突破。市场人士分析称,此前过度聚焦DeepSeek,却忽视了包括阿里通义在内的中国AI整体性追赶。行业媒体《信息平权》表示,若阿里Qwen-2.5-max这次的确性能超过V3,可以对其RL推理模型给予更大期待。进一步,当阿里云展现出\"强大模型+充足算力+完整云平台\"的组合优势时,是否印证了类似去年北美云计算服务商的投资逻辑?如果美股因AI整体增值10万亿美元,中国AI资产的重估时机是否已至?01全面对标全球顶级模型,百万token里程碑Qwen2.5-Max采用超大规模MoE(混合专家)架构,基于超过20万亿token的预训练数据。在测试大学水平知识的MMLU-Pro、评估编程能力的LiveCodeBench、综合能力评估的LiveBench,以及近似人类偏好的Arena-Hard等多个权威评测中,该模型均展现出与DeepSeek V3、GPT-4和Claude-3.5-Sonnet比肩,甚至领先的性能。阿里团队表示,随着后训练技术的不断进步,下一个版本将有望达到更高水平。Qwen2.5团队同步发布了两个创新型号:Qwen2.5-7b-instruct-1m和Qwen2.5-14b-instruct-1m。这些开源模型支持高达100万token的上下文窗口,成为业内首个达到此规模的公开可用模型。这些模型使用稀疏注意力,只关注上下文中最重要的部分。这种方法处理百万token输入的速度比传统方法快3到7倍,输出长度可达8000个token。然而,这需要模型识别上下文文档中的关键段落——这是当前语言模型经常难以完成的任务。在测试中,14B型号和Qwen2.5-Turbo在查找非常长的文档中的隐藏数字时都达到了完美的准确性。较小的7B型号也表现良好,只有轻微的错误。在RULER、LV-Eval和LongbenchChat等要求更高的复杂的上下文测试中,百万token模型的表现优于128K token模型,尤其是在超过64K token的序列中,14B型号甚至在RULER中得分超过90分——这是Qwen系列的第一次——在多个数据集上持续击败gpt - 4o mini。02是时候整体重估中国AI资产了吗?如果说DeepSeek V3的横空出世展现了中国AI的锐度,那么本次阿里的突破则体现了产业生态的深度进化。在Qwen2.5-Max发布当天,阿里云百炼平台同步开放了完整的工具链支持,开发者可以直接在云端调用。这种\"超算集群+开源生态+云原生\"的三位一体架构,与北美AWS、Azure、GCP三大云服务商的商业模式形成镜像。此外,根据我们之前提到的摩根士丹利最新研报,低成本高性能模型也将重塑数据中心和软件行业格局:对于中国数据中心而言,短期内,如果大型科技公司采用类似技术路线,可能减少AI训练相关需求。但从长远来看,低成本模型将推动推理需求增长,对一线城市数据中心形成利好;对于中国软件行业,AI模型成本的降低将降低应用程序运行AI功能的门槛,从供给侧改善行业环境。如果阿里Qwen-2.5-max的性能确实展现出预期水平,加之其低成本优势与完整云生态,有理由期待,它将引发DeepSeek之后的中国AI资产新一轮重估。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397198101086736,"gmtCreate":1737994361760,"gmtModify":1737994362920,"author":{"id":"3484606529440553","authorId":"3484606529440553","name":"许愿百万美金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7259231b743bcda3494105b20c660080","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484606529440553","authorIdStr":"3484606529440553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"deepseek的出圈极有可能戳破ai泡沫,所以英伟达暴跌,纳斯达克大跌","listText":"deepseek的出圈极有可能戳破ai泡沫,所以英伟达暴跌,纳斯达克大跌","text":"deepseek的出圈极有可能戳破ai泡沫,所以英伟达暴跌,纳斯达克大跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397198101086736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}