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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·07-25
  berry is so stupid
  “大空头”迈克尔·伯里称尚未平仓特斯拉空头头寸
  著名投资人迈克尔·伯里表示，他正在加大对几项科技股看跌押注的力度，增加了对英伟达和VanEck半导体ETF的空头头寸，同时坚称尚未平仓其对特斯拉的获利空头押注。　　迈克尔·伯里因精准预测并做空2008年美国次贷危机而闻名全球，也是奥斯卡获奖电影《大空头》中主角的原型。　　“我没有平仓特斯拉空头头寸。它自己就在变小，”伯里周五在Substack上的一篇新帖子中写道。
  “大空头”迈克尔·伯里称尚未平仓特斯拉空头头寸
  8 评论
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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·07-13
  神经病这人
  “大空头”杀疯了！迈克尔·伯里从底层技术狙击AI信仰，AI牛市迎来“清算时刻”
  智通财经APP获悉，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。伯里所说的人工智能“参数陷阱”意味着什么?费城半导体指数今年以来已上涨88%。数月以来，伯里一直在建立针对人工智能热门科技股交易的空头头寸。伯里7月10日的文章则有所不同，因为他攻击的不是价格标签，而是AI技术架构。
  “大空头”杀疯了！迈克尔·伯里从底层技术狙击AI信仰，AI牛市迎来“清算时刻”
  123 评论
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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·01-30
  jobs表示有心无力
  1,402 评论
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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·2025-11-03
  $联合健康(UNH)$ 还没出现底背离，难道流动性被ai概念抽走了吗
  1,549 评论
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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·2025-10-30
  $联合健康(UNH)$ 谁能给点信心啊，ai相关的都踏空了，就留着这支让人哭笑不得的票，没信心等下去了
  4,480 3
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- 爱吹牛的傻大江爱吹牛的傻大江
  ·2025-10-29
  $联合健康(UNH)$ 还不如财报利好，一开盘被浇个透心凉
  3,656 2
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is so stupid","listText":"berry is so stupid","text":"berry is so stupid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/589456736514888","repostId":"2654034848","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654034848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1784920260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2654034848?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-25 03:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”迈克尔·伯里称尚未平仓特斯拉空头头寸","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654034848","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"著名投资人迈克尔·伯里表示，他正在加大对几项科技股看跌押注的力度，增加了对英伟达和VanEck半导体ETF的空头头寸，同时坚称尚未平仓其对特斯拉的获利空头押注。　　迈克尔·伯里因精准预测并做空2008年美国次贷危机而闻名全球，也是奥斯卡获奖电影《大空头》中主角的原型。　　“我没有平仓特斯拉空头头寸。它自己就在变小，”伯里周五在Substack上的一篇新帖子中写道。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　著名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）表示，他正在加大对几项科技股看跌押注的力度，增加了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和VanEck半导体ETF的空头头寸，同时坚称尚未平仓其对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的获利空头押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　迈克尔·伯里因精准预测并做空2008年美国次贷危机而闻名全球，也是奥斯卡获奖电影《大空头》（The Big Short）中主角的原型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　“我没有平仓特斯拉空头头寸。它自己就在变小，”伯里周五在Substack上的一篇新帖子中写道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　这家电动汽车制造商的股价周四暴跌15%，此前公布的季度财报令人失望。该股周五再跌3%，使7月累计跌幅扩大至约26%，股价跌至约308美元。伯里在6月底曾表示，他在416.22美元的价格做空了特斯拉。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　伯里表示，他继续持有相当规模的英伟达看跌期权，并且通过看跌期权继续做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03455\">景顺QQQ</a>信托基金以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">　　在解释其英伟达投资逻辑时，伯里认为，对人工智能基础设施的需求更多是由融资安排驱动，而非最终客户需求。他表示，“很大一部分，甚至可能是大部分”当前及未来的需求是通过表外循环融资安排实现的。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”迈克尔·伯里称尚未平仓特斯拉空头头寸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-25 03:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-25/doc-iniixwvx1494387.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>著名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）表示，他正在加大对几项科技股看跌押注的力度，增加了对英伟达和VanEck半导体ETF的空头头寸，同时坚称尚未平仓其对特斯拉的获利空头押注。　　迈克尔·伯里因精准预测并做空2008年美国次贷危机而闻名全球，也是奥斯卡获奖电影《大空头》（The Big Short）中主角的原型。　　“我没有平仓特斯拉空头头寸。它自己就在变小，”伯里周五在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-25/doc-iniixwvx1494387.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU2047632596.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2100268510.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU3102509885.SGD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"A8P\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ 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Burry）表示，他正在加大对几项科技股看跌押注的力度，增加了对英伟达和VanEck半导体ETF的空头头寸，同时坚称尚未平仓其对特斯拉的获利空头押注。　　迈克尔·伯里因精准预测并做空2008年美国次贷危机而闻名全球，也是奥斯卡获奖电影《大空头》（The Big Short）中主角的原型。　　“我没有平仓特斯拉空头头寸。它自己就在变小，”伯里周五在Substack上的一篇新帖子中写道。　　这家电动汽车制造商的股价周四暴跌15%，此前公布的季度财报令人失望。该股周五再跌3%，使7月累计跌幅扩大至约26%，股价跌至约308美元。伯里在6月底曾表示，他在416.22美元的价格做空了特斯拉。　　伯里表示，他继续持有相当规模的英伟达看跌期权，并且通过看跌期权继续做空景顺QQQ信托基金以及Palantir Technologies。　　在解释其英伟达投资逻辑时，伯里认为，对人工智能基础设施的需求更多是由融资安排驱动，而非最终客户需求。他表示，“很大一部分，甚至可能是大部分”当前及未来的需求是通过表外循环融资安排实现的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EFIV":0.6,"07788":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"IDRV":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"09366":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"VT":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"USD":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"METV":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"07388":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"WANT":0.6,"09766":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"NVDA":1.86,"NVYY":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"WATS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"07366":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TSLA":1.94,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"07766":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"ABFL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":585340677374280,"gmtCreate":1783936867804,"gmtModify":1783937396249,"author":{"id":"3491225479053506","authorId":"3491225479053506","name":"爱吹牛的傻大江","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc10a946092110bc129113fb13247f1","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491225479053506","idStr":"3491225479053506"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"神经病这人","listText":"神经病这人","text":"神经病这人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585340677374280","repostId":"2651191069","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2651191069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1783932913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2651191069?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-13 16:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”杀疯了！迈克尔·伯里从底层技术狙击AI信仰，AI牛市迎来“清算时刻”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651191069","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。伯里所说的人工智能“参数陷阱”意味着什么?费城半导体指数今年以来已上涨88%。数月以来，伯里一直在建立针对人工智能热门科技股交易的空头头寸。伯里7月10日的文章则有所不同，因为他攻击的不是价格标签，而是AI技术架构。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月13日，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。<strong>电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔·伯里近期频繁做空操作更明显聚焦于AI算力基建相关的拥挤交易以及AI半导体资本开支周期，比如伯里通过看跌期权或空头表达了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、美光、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的看空仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这位因成功且精准预测2008年美国房地产崩盘与次贷危机全面爆发而声名鹊起的全球顶级投资者最新的一系列做空AI主题的高频操作，被市场解读为他对AI基建狂潮驱动的仓位极度拥挤的存储芯片主题、半导体制造设备以及AI GPU/AI ASIC这类AI芯片相关热门股票看空立场，以及对于愈发庞大AI算力基础设施资本开支的投资回报预期和高估值科技股基本面前景的系统性怀疑</strong>。此前他还通过13F披露过对英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的看跌期权头寸。随着周一韩国股市再度暴跌至熔断以及全球股票市场与AI算力相关的热门科技股陷入剧烈波动，一些投资者开始赞同AI泡沫即将破裂的论调并且加入伯里对于AI主题的做空阵营。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>伯里近期韩国政府主导的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>史无前例巨额存储芯片扩产计划视为AI投资周期“开始走向终点”的重要标志之一，伯里将韩国项目视为“峰值资本开支信号”而非“即时产能信号”，并称其是AI繁荣“终结的开端”。</strong>他的判断并不是认为这些工厂将在明年立即造成供给过剩，而是基于半导体行业经典的蛛网周期：最乐观的需求预测、最高的芯片价格和最宽松的融资条件，往往促使所有厂商在周期高点同时宣布巨额扩产;由于先进晶圆厂从规划、土地、电力和洁净室建设、半导体设备大规模导入到量产需要多年，真正的供给洪峰通常会在市场需求已经降温时到来。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大空头”最新做空操作以及对于AI超级牛市的极度悲观看跌立场，<strong>可谓与美国银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>以及野村等华尔街金融巨头们的积极看涨立场截然相反</strong>，这些全球最顶级金融巨头们一致认为随着企业IT预算越来越来越大规模流向AI智能体相关的应用生态与AI推理算力预算，加之OpenAI GPT-5.6与ChatGPT Work智能体的推出以及Anthropic有望从长期亏损迈向整体利润狂飙式增长的全新基本面扩张阶段，全球对于AI算力需求近乎无止境。</p><h2 id=\"id_883884072\">“大空头”伯里高呼AI“参数陷阱”，坚定用空头仓位狙击AI投资热潮</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有着“大空头”称号的伯里在最新发布的推文动态中引用了蒂姆·伯顿版本的《蝙蝠侠》中小丑的一句经典台词：“在苍白的月光下与魔鬼共舞。”他将人工智能热潮称为“群体成瘾”<strong>，并预测它“可能在千刀万剐中走向死亡”。7月1日，他在美国存储芯片制造巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>(MU.US)股价达到1,051.87美元时的历史最高位附近时选择做空该股，而此前一年间，该股股价已经上涨近700%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月10日，他在Substack上发表了更为具体的对于全球AI投资热潮的悲观论调与看空观点，其内容已经超越了对AI泡沫破裂以及AI半导体主题昂贵估值的担忧。这是对整个人工智能行业赖以建立的技术基础发起的空头攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>迈克尔·伯里称，人工智能技术路径从一开始就走错了道路，而且如今已被困在其中。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这篇文章的论点围绕伯里所谓的“一开始就错了”展开。他认为，人工智能的发展选择了语言优先，而本应选择推理优先;此后整个行业一直在为这一选择付出代价，却始终没有完全承认这一点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他围绕所谓的“巴拉德测试”构建这一论点。这是一个哲学案例，涉及一位名叫梅尔维尔·巴拉德的人物;他在获得强大的语言能力之前，就已经具备了深刻的推理能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>伯里借此提出一个具体观点：真正的理解并不需要语言。语言是智能的输出形式，而不是智能的来源。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“我们误把人工智能的输出——语言——当成了它的引擎——推理。”伯里在Substack付费订阅平台上写道。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照他对人工智能行业技术路线的解读，行业发现语言是一个可以处理的问题，于是围绕语言进行优化;并不是因为语言能够通向通用人工智能，而是因为语言具有显著可扩展性，也更容易获得庞大科技产业融资。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里认为，模型生成文本的能力越来越强。投资者对此给予奖励。行业于是继续沿着这条道路前进。而在这一过程中，生成语言与真正进行推理之间的差别不知不觉被忽视了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>伯里所说的人工智能“参数陷阱”意味着什么?所谓“参数陷阱”，是指一个行业开始认定规模更大就等同于AI大模型性能更好：更多模型参数、更大规模AI算力基础设施、更多数据输入、更庞大的模型。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">每一次规模升级，都会在基准测试分数和演示效果上带来肉眼可见的改善。但伯里的观点在于，扩大语言模型规模并不能解决底层的逻辑推理问题，只会让这种模拟显得更加令用户们对于语言输出信服。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这会产生真实的财务后果。那些正在人工智能算力基础设施上投入数千亿美元的公司，押注的正是规模扩张最终能够实现通用人工智能目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据TheStreet报道，超大规模云计算公司2026年的人工智能支出可能达到7,250亿美元。费城半导体指数今年以来已上涨88%。英伟达市值约为5.45万亿美元，过去12个月市盈率为43倍。所有这些估值与支出，都建立在当前规模扩张路径(即scaling path)能够长期奏效这一假设之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里认为，这条路径可能行不通。如果整个行业正以如此庞大的规模投入资金，只为改进一个并非真正目标的东西，那么整笔交易的经济逻辑就会完全不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这篇Substack文章并非凭空出现。<strong>数月以来，伯里一直在建立针对人工智能热门科技股交易的空头头寸。他披露的做空标的包括英伟达、特斯拉、美光科技、应用材料、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>以及iShares半导体交易所交易基金。正如此前媒体披露，他于7月1日披露的美光空头仓位，是在该股已经上涨近700%之后建立的。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5885237acec7f497b667090fa78b1117\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他对AI半导体板块高估值的分析观点指出，费城半导体指数在过去15年的预期市盈率区间内，已经接近峰值水平。<strong>他的论点在于，AI半导体类股票交易价格上涨，是因为超大规模云计算公司正在大举投入人工智能训练/推理算力集群;而超大规模云计算公司之所以继续大举投入，又是因为它们迫切需求这些AI半导体以及AI基建相关的核心基础设施硬件，因此推动全球芯片股不断上涨。这个反馈循环看起来像真实需求，但其中一部分实际上只是市场反身性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年6月，美股“科技七巨头”(即Magnificent Seven)的总市值蒸发超过2.2万亿美元。伯里在这一轮下跌期间一直维持空头仓位，而且非但没有缓和做空立场，反而进一步强化了他的做空立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为什么伯里的AI技术路线批评比估值论更难被忽视?大多数看空人工智能的人提出的都是估值论点：股票太贵、AI算力相关支出过于庞大、回报尚未兑现。这些论点确实存在现实依据，但也早已为市场所熟悉，而且市场过去多次听到这些观点，却没有受到太大影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里7月10日的文章则有所不同，因为他攻击的不是价格标签，而是AI技术架构。他认为，当前这一代人工智能或许正在越来越擅长完成一件并非真正通用AI目标的事情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个能够生成更具说服力语言输出的系统，并不一定正在更加接近真正的人工智能推理能力。如果这一判断成立，那么AI算力规模扩张理论所面临的崩塌，将比估值批评者所描述的更加根本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他预测，人工智能叙事“可能在千刀万剐中走向死亡”。这一措辞是经过刻意选择的。他并不是在预测某个单一的崩盘时刻，而是在描述一种信心逐渐遭到侵蚀的过程：随着人工智能实际能力与投资者此前假设之间的差距，越来越难以依靠更大参数、更加昂贵AI算力集群打造的模型和更好的基准测试加以掩饰，市场信念将一点点瓦解。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里的警告对长期追踪人工智能相关热门股票的投资者们而言意味着什么?伯里过去也曾过早作出判断。他在2023年8月呼吁卖出股票，但此后美国股票市场上涨了66%。他做空英伟达股票可能已经超过一年，而该股仍持续上涨。即便一个结构性判断最终正确，也并不意味着市场会在任何特定时间点认同这一观点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月10日这篇文章的不同之处，在于其论点非常具体。<strong>他并不只是说人工智能太贵，而是指出当前这轮人工智能浪潮最初作出的一项具体技术决策，并认为这项决策让整个行业似乎走上了错误道路。这并不是多头能够凭借一次超预期财报轻易搪塞过去的问题。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于持有人工智能算力基础设施相关半导体或者AI算力集群产业链股票，或者任何估值建立在“当前一代大型语言模型正通往真正通用人工智能”这一假设之上的科技公司的投资者而言，伯里的论点值得深思。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他的立场最终可能被证明是错的。他过去也曾判断错误。但是上一次他对一个主要市场提出如此具体的结构性批判论断时，事实最终证明他是正确的。</p><h2 id=\"id_1574172731\">“大空头”伯里与华尔街巨头们围绕”AI算力基建主题见顶论”展开世纪对赌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国巨额扩产是伯里做空AI的重要“晚周期象征”，他的完整AI空头逻辑还依赖AI大模型技术路线的规模化彻底宣告失效、AI商业回报不及资本开支、极端估值与杠杆仓位极端化以及未来供给集中释放同时发生。投资者真正应跟踪的不是远期投资公告本身，而是晶圆厂投产时间、存储位元供给增速、客户库存、长期采购协议取消率、HBM与通用存储价格、云厂商资本开支占总营收比例，以及围绕AI算力基建的创收能否持续快于折旧和运营成本增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一些“AI算力基建周期见顶”以及“AI泡沫即将破裂”这些悲观论调支持者们看来，如果AI大模型能力边际收益下降、算力转售增多且存储产能在需求放缓时集中落地，伯里的空头框架就可能从过早的逆势交易，演变为AI算力超级周期真正的顶部剧本。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美银与野村则代表对伯里最有力的反方论证：当前真正约束行业的仍是供给不足，而不是供给过剩。高带宽存储器占用更多晶圆面积并挤压通用动态随机存取存储器和闪存产能，新建晶圆厂又需要五至十年以上才能形成有效供给;SK海力士首席执行官甚至预计2027年将出现史上最严重的存储短缺，客户需求到2030年以后仍可能高于供给能力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银和野村的最新研究报告可谓默契指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>出售闲置算力也可以解释为提高利用率和资本回报率，而不一定意味着需求见顶;若算力出租降低单位代币成本，新增应用和调用量可能产生“杰文斯悖论”，反而扩大总计算与存储需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>华尔街知名投资机构野村发布研报反驳“半导体见顶论”，美国银行(BofA)本周最新发布的研报则显示，预计到2027年，在AI智能体大浪潮之下AI推理算力持续激增的强力推动大趋势背景下，全球云计算和人工智能相关基础设施资本支出将达到1.5万亿美元，并指出，当前包括存储芯片股票的AI半导体夏季回调是一轮健康重置轨迹，而不是人工智能算力需求层面出现任何结构性变化。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在高盛看来AI牛市远未宣告结束，而是从“AI芯片购置狂潮”进入“大规模建设AI工厂”的第二阶段——即下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心高性能CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板、MLCC、电子布与广泛晶圆代工等“AI工厂”全栈AI算力基础设施层。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">野村反驳“半导体见顶论”的关键，不是简单说AI芯片还会涨，而是指出AI云基础设施需求正在从单点GPU短缺扩散为系统性零部件错配。按照野村研究框架，2026年和2027年AI服务器营收预计分别增长78%和76%，全球数据中心项目从240个增至280个，其中吉瓦级项目约50个，2027年新增算力部署预计达32GW，2028年也已有23GW可见度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>迈克尔·伯里做空AI主题的底层逻辑并非简单认为“人工智能没有价值”，而是押注技术路线、资本回报和市场定价三者之间出现了危险错配。在AI底层技术路径层面，他认为当前产业把语言生成这一“智能输出”误当成了推理本身，通过增加参数、训练数据和计算量不断改善模型表达能力，却未必同步建立稳定的因果推理、世界模型和长期规划能力</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在资本回报和市场定价等AI经济层面，行业却按照“继续扩大模型就能逼近通用智能”的假设，投入数千亿美元建设芯片、数据中心和电力系统。如果边际能力提升逐渐放缓，而可货币化营收无法覆盖折旧、电力、存储和融资成本，那么整个AI基础设施估值体系将面临资本回报率下修。伯里把这种风险概括为人工智能的“错误起点”和“参数陷阱”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他的第二层逻辑是典型的反身性泡沫与资本开支周期：芯片股上涨强化AI需求无上限的叙事，超大规模云厂商因此更容易融资并扩大资本开支;不断增长的订单又推高芯片企业盈利预期和股价，继而刺激供应链进一步扩产。这个循环在上行期看似是需求验证，但在伯里看来，部分增长实际上源于资产价格、融资能力与企业投资决策相互强化，而不是终端AI现金流已经充分兑现。<strong>他近期做空英伟达、美光、应用材料、半导体交易所交易基金、特斯拉和卡特彼勒，实际上是在覆盖AI资本周期的多个环节——AI集群核心加速器(AI GPU/AI ASIC/TPU)、存储芯片、晶圆制造设备系统、自动驾驶叙事以及数据中心建设相关资本品，而不是只针对某一家AI相关科技公司</strong>。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”杀疯了！迈克尔·伯里从底层技术狙击AI信仰，AI牛市迎来“清算时刻”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”杀疯了！迈克尔·伯里从底层技术狙击AI信仰，AI牛市迎来“清算时刻”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-13 16:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1466529.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月13日，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔·伯里近期频繁做空操作更明显聚焦于AI算力基建相关的拥挤交易以及AI半导体资本开支周期，比如伯里通过看跌期权或空头表达了对英伟达、特斯拉、美光、应用材料、iShares半导体ETF的看空仓位...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1466529.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","MU":"美光科技","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL 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ETF-T-Rex"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1466529.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2651191069","content_text":"7月13日，有着“大空头”称号的迈克尔·伯里一直在他的Substack订阅平台上发布“末日将至”的悲观言论，并且在全球资金持续蜂拥至AI算力基建主题之际，大举做空热门AI科技股票。电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔·伯里近期频繁做空操作更明显聚焦于AI算力基建相关的拥挤交易以及AI半导体资本开支周期，比如伯里通过看跌期权或空头表达了对英伟达、特斯拉、美光、应用材料、iShares半导体ETF的看空仓位。这位因成功且精准预测2008年美国房地产崩盘与次贷危机全面爆发而声名鹊起的全球顶级投资者最新的一系列做空AI主题的高频操作，被市场解读为他对AI基建狂潮驱动的仓位极度拥挤的存储芯片主题、半导体制造设备以及AI GPU/AI ASIC这类AI芯片相关热门股票看空立场，以及对于愈发庞大AI算力基础设施资本开支的投资回报预期和高估值科技股基本面前景的系统性怀疑。此前他还通过13F披露过对英伟达和Palantir的看跌期权头寸。随着周一韩国股市再度暴跌至熔断以及全球股票市场与AI算力相关的热门科技股陷入剧烈波动，一些投资者开始赞同AI泡沫即将破裂的论调并且加入伯里对于AI主题的做空阵营。伯里近期韩国政府主导的SK海力士与三星电子史无前例巨额存储芯片扩产计划视为AI投资周期“开始走向终点”的重要标志之一，伯里将韩国项目视为“峰值资本开支信号”而非“即时产能信号”，并称其是AI繁荣“终结的开端”。他的判断并不是认为这些工厂将在明年立即造成供给过剩，而是基于半导体行业经典的蛛网周期：最乐观的需求预测、最高的芯片价格和最宽松的融资条件，往往促使所有厂商在周期高点同时宣布巨额扩产;由于先进晶圆厂从规划、土地、电力和洁净室建设、半导体设备大规模导入到量产需要多年，真正的供给洪峰通常会在市场需求已经降温时到来。大空头”最新做空操作以及对于AI超级牛市的极度悲观看跌立场，可谓与美国银行、高盛以及野村等华尔街金融巨头们的积极看涨立场截然相反，这些全球最顶级金融巨头们一致认为随着企业IT预算越来越来越大规模流向AI智能体相关的应用生态与AI推理算力预算，加之OpenAI GPT-5.6与ChatGPT Work智能体的推出以及Anthropic有望从长期亏损迈向整体利润狂飙式增长的全新基本面扩张阶段，全球对于AI算力需求近乎无止境。“大空头”伯里高呼AI“参数陷阱”，坚定用空头仓位狙击AI投资热潮有着“大空头”称号的伯里在最新发布的推文动态中引用了蒂姆·伯顿版本的《蝙蝠侠》中小丑的一句经典台词：“在苍白的月光下与魔鬼共舞。”他将人工智能热潮称为“群体成瘾”，并预测它“可能在千刀万剐中走向死亡”。7月1日，他在美国存储芯片制造巨头美光科技(MU.US)股价达到1,051.87美元时的历史最高位附近时选择做空该股，而此前一年间，该股股价已经上涨近700%。7月10日，他在Substack上发表了更为具体的对于全球AI投资热潮的悲观论调与看空观点，其内容已经超越了对AI泡沫破裂以及AI半导体主题昂贵估值的担忧。这是对整个人工智能行业赖以建立的技术基础发起的空头攻击。迈克尔·伯里称，人工智能技术路径从一开始就走错了道路，而且如今已被困在其中。这篇文章的论点围绕伯里所谓的“一开始就错了”展开。他认为，人工智能的发展选择了语言优先，而本应选择推理优先;此后整个行业一直在为这一选择付出代价，却始终没有完全承认这一点。他围绕所谓的“巴拉德测试”构建这一论点。这是一个哲学案例，涉及一位名叫梅尔维尔·巴拉德的人物;他在获得强大的语言能力之前，就已经具备了深刻的推理能力。伯里借此提出一个具体观点：真正的理解并不需要语言。语言是智能的输出形式，而不是智能的来源。“我们误把人工智能的输出——语言——当成了它的引擎——推理。”伯里在Substack付费订阅平台上写道。按照他对人工智能行业技术路线的解读，行业发现语言是一个可以处理的问题，于是围绕语言进行优化;并不是因为语言能够通向通用人工智能，而是因为语言具有显著可扩展性，也更容易获得庞大科技产业融资。伯里认为，模型生成文本的能力越来越强。投资者对此给予奖励。行业于是继续沿着这条道路前进。而在这一过程中，生成语言与真正进行推理之间的差别不知不觉被忽视了。伯里所说的人工智能“参数陷阱”意味着什么?所谓“参数陷阱”，是指一个行业开始认定规模更大就等同于AI大模型性能更好：更多模型参数、更大规模AI算力基础设施、更多数据输入、更庞大的模型。每一次规模升级，都会在基准测试分数和演示效果上带来肉眼可见的改善。但伯里的观点在于，扩大语言模型规模并不能解决底层的逻辑推理问题，只会让这种模拟显得更加令用户们对于语言输出信服。这会产生真实的财务后果。那些正在人工智能算力基础设施上投入数千亿美元的公司，押注的正是规模扩张最终能够实现通用人工智能目标。据TheStreet报道，超大规模云计算公司2026年的人工智能支出可能达到7,250亿美元。费城半导体指数今年以来已上涨88%。英伟达市值约为5.45万亿美元，过去12个月市盈率为43倍。所有这些估值与支出，都建立在当前规模扩张路径(即scaling path)能够长期奏效这一假设之上。伯里认为，这条路径可能行不通。如果整个行业正以如此庞大的规模投入资金，只为改进一个并非真正目标的东西，那么整笔交易的经济逻辑就会完全不同。这篇Substack文章并非凭空出现。数月以来，伯里一直在建立针对人工智能热门科技股交易的空头头寸。他披露的做空标的包括英伟达、特斯拉、美光科技、应用材料、卡特彼勒以及iShares半导体交易所交易基金。正如此前媒体披露，他于7月1日披露的美光空头仓位，是在该股已经上涨近700%之后建立的。他对AI半导体板块高估值的分析观点指出，费城半导体指数在过去15年的预期市盈率区间内，已经接近峰值水平。他的论点在于，AI半导体类股票交易价格上涨，是因为超大规模云计算公司正在大举投入人工智能训练/推理算力集群;而超大规模云计算公司之所以继续大举投入，又是因为它们迫切需求这些AI半导体以及AI基建相关的核心基础设施硬件，因此推动全球芯片股不断上涨。这个反馈循环看起来像真实需求，但其中一部分实际上只是市场反身性。2026年6月，美股“科技七巨头”(即Magnificent Seven)的总市值蒸发超过2.2万亿美元。伯里在这一轮下跌期间一直维持空头仓位，而且非但没有缓和做空立场，反而进一步强化了他的做空立场。为什么伯里的AI技术路线批评比估值论更难被忽视?大多数看空人工智能的人提出的都是估值论点：股票太贵、AI算力相关支出过于庞大、回报尚未兑现。这些论点确实存在现实依据，但也早已为市场所熟悉，而且市场过去多次听到这些观点，却没有受到太大影响。伯里7月10日的文章则有所不同，因为他攻击的不是价格标签，而是AI技术架构。他认为，当前这一代人工智能或许正在越来越擅长完成一件并非真正通用AI目标的事情。一个能够生成更具说服力语言输出的系统，并不一定正在更加接近真正的人工智能推理能力。如果这一判断成立，那么AI算力规模扩张理论所面临的崩塌，将比估值批评者所描述的更加根本。他预测，人工智能叙事“可能在千刀万剐中走向死亡”。这一措辞是经过刻意选择的。他并不是在预测某个单一的崩盘时刻，而是在描述一种信心逐渐遭到侵蚀的过程：随着人工智能实际能力与投资者此前假设之间的差距，越来越难以依靠更大参数、更加昂贵AI算力集群打造的模型和更好的基准测试加以掩饰，市场信念将一点点瓦解。伯里的警告对长期追踪人工智能相关热门股票的投资者们而言意味着什么?伯里过去也曾过早作出判断。他在2023年8月呼吁卖出股票，但此后美国股票市场上涨了66%。他做空英伟达股票可能已经超过一年，而该股仍持续上涨。即便一个结构性判断最终正确，也并不意味着市场会在任何特定时间点认同这一观点。7月10日这篇文章的不同之处，在于其论点非常具体。他并不只是说人工智能太贵，而是指出当前这轮人工智能浪潮最初作出的一项具体技术决策，并认为这项决策让整个行业似乎走上了错误道路。这并不是多头能够凭借一次超预期财报轻易搪塞过去的问题。对于持有人工智能算力基础设施相关半导体或者AI算力集群产业链股票，或者任何估值建立在“当前一代大型语言模型正通往真正通用人工智能”这一假设之上的科技公司的投资者而言，伯里的论点值得深思。他的立场最终可能被证明是错的。他过去也曾判断错误。但是上一次他对一个主要市场提出如此具体的结构性批判论断时，事实最终证明他是正确的。“大空头”伯里与华尔街巨头们围绕”AI算力基建主题见顶论”展开世纪对赌韩国巨额扩产是伯里做空AI的重要“晚周期象征”，他的完整AI空头逻辑还依赖AI大模型技术路线的规模化彻底宣告失效、AI商业回报不及资本开支、极端估值与杠杆仓位极端化以及未来供给集中释放同时发生。投资者真正应跟踪的不是远期投资公告本身，而是晶圆厂投产时间、存储位元供给增速、客户库存、长期采购协议取消率、HBM与通用存储价格、云厂商资本开支占总营收比例，以及围绕AI算力基建的创收能否持续快于折旧和运营成本增长。在一些“AI算力基建周期见顶”以及“AI泡沫即将破裂”这些悲观论调支持者们看来，如果AI大模型能力边际收益下降、算力转售增多且存储产能在需求放缓时集中落地，伯里的空头框架就可能从过早的逆势交易，演变为AI算力超级周期真正的顶部剧本。美银与野村则代表对伯里最有力的反方论证：当前真正约束行业的仍是供给不足，而不是供给过剩。高带宽存储器占用更多晶圆面积并挤压通用动态随机存取存储器和闪存产能，新建晶圆厂又需要五至十年以上才能形成有效供给;SK海力士首席执行官甚至预计2027年将出现史上最严重的存储短缺，客户需求到2030年以后仍可能高于供给能力。美银和野村的最新研究报告可谓默契指出，Meta出售闲置算力也可以解释为提高利用率和资本回报率，而不一定意味着需求见顶;若算力出租降低单位代币成本，新增应用和调用量可能产生“杰文斯悖论”，反而扩大总计算与存储需求。华尔街知名投资机构野村发布研报反驳“半导体见顶论”，美国银行(BofA)本周最新发布的研报则显示，预计到2027年，在AI智能体大浪潮之下AI推理算力持续激增的强力推动大趋势背景下，全球云计算和人工智能相关基础设施资本支出将达到1.5万亿美元，并指出，当前包括存储芯片股票的AI半导体夏季回调是一轮健康重置轨迹，而不是人工智能算力需求层面出现任何结构性变化。在高盛看来AI牛市远未宣告结束，而是从“AI芯片购置狂潮”进入“大规模建设AI工厂”的第二阶段——即下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI 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