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者孤勇
奔向星辰大海
IP属地：广西
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
06-22
降息加息都是割你们的韭菜
美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息
花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。
美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
06-21
为什么不叫以色列停止别国的侵略行动
特朗普就黎巴嫩问题再度威胁伊朗
新华社消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗必须立即停止在黎巴嫩的“代理人”行动，否则美国将会再次对伊朗发起猛烈打击，“就像上周那样，而且会更猛烈”。
特朗普就黎巴嫩问题再度威胁伊朗
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-29
$华亿金控(08123)$
又合股后又跌没百七十，这操作没谁了
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-25
这家伙就是利用政权炒股[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
一季度做了3711笔交易！高频交易、先买后吹，这是“白宫股神”特朗普的交易策略
特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为"非主动委托"的交易，与其公开为相关公司"站台"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。
一季度做了3711笔交易！高频交易、先买后吹，这是“白宫股神”特朗普的交易策略
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-19
继续打，打到同意所有为止，光🦶的还怕有鞋穿的。你也要让他尝尝没鞋穿的滋味。
伊朗消息称美方展现灵活性，伊方重申核心立场
总台记者当地时间18日获悉，一位伊朗高级消息人士称，美国在允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下维持有限的和平核活动方面展现了灵活性。但在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上，华盛顿只同意按照分阶段的时间表解冻其中四分之一的资产。消息人士表示，伊朗希望美国重新考虑针对以上问题的相关立场。该消息人士称，伊朗在其新提案中再次强调结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及解除海上制裁的要求。消息还称，伊朗核计划和铀浓缩等问题仍然是美伊谈判中最棘手的部分，已被推迟到后续几轮谈判中讨论。（总台记者 张颖哲）
伊朗消息称美方展现灵活性，伊方重申核心立场
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-12
股市怎么知道海峡能不能通行运油？
国际油价大涨，美国与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”
全球原油市场继续呈现供应趋紧的局面。
国际油价大涨，美国与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-08
$华亿金控(08123)$
华亿又有排跌了[开心]
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-07
一个使劲吹胀，一个使劲踢爆[开心] [开心] [开心]
美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”
双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。
美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-05
$中食民安(08283)$
还有四五十分，又有排跌在[开心]
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者孤勇
者孤勇
·
05-01
因为代替阿达的产品出来了[开心]
科技巨头AI支出大增，为什么英伟达还跌了？
市场担忧核心在于，谷歌宣布向外部销售自研TPU芯片，亚马逊自研Trainium芯片年化营收突破200亿美元，英伟达最大客户正加速成为其竞争对手。分析师警示此举可能"从根本上颠覆英伟达"，但也有观点认为AI需求爆发式增长下，供给才是瓶颈。
科技巨头AI支出大增，为什么英伟达还跌了？
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17:08","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645407520","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除"宽松偏向"措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为"异常值"，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是"异常值"，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的"异常值"，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街"投降"：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺"修复"价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是"明智之举"。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开："如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。"曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储转鹰、华尔街纷纷投降，花旗成“最后的倔强”：坚持10月重启降息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 17:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除"宽松偏向"措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。</strong>花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为"异常值"，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。</p><h2 id=\"430d6906\">花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，<strong>油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。</strong>基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145ed3577bad64f1f3fafc29756e7824\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><h2 id=\"f5ce59ca\">花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，<strong>而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。</strong>该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8022e8ffcf8fdd63935db0bd1297e88f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"429\"/></p><h2 id=\"pce\">花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是"异常值"，通胀画面并不统一</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；<strong>但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。</strong>花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4b0e811a52a84b5662f999ae1a5c2a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的"异常值"，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。</p><h2 id=\"ab66a449\">华尔街"投降"：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺"修复"价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是"明智之举"。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开："如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。"曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"ZROZ":"PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","SPY":"标普500ETF","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark 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ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775196","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645407520","content_text":"花旗认为，美联储下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。其核心逻辑在于：油价急速下跌正消除通胀上行风险，失业金人数上升预示劳动力市场季节性走弱，且核心PCE的强势受股价推升，属于各类通胀指标中的“异常值”，不反映广义消费价格压力。在美联储出人意料地大幅转鹰、华尔街主流机构相继撤回宽松预期之际，花旗集团坚持逆势判断，认为年内降息依然是大概率事件，并将基准情景锁定为10月重启宽松周期。6月FOMC会议上，18名联储官员中有9人的利率点阵图指向今年加息，远超市场和分析师预期。主席沃什在会后声明中正式删除\"宽松偏向\"措辞，并拒绝提供任何前瞻指引。受此冲击，掉期市场迅速将首次加息预期从2027年3月提前至今年10月，市场目前已为今年剩余时间定价约37个基点的加息幅度，2年期美债收益率会后创下3月以来最大单日涨幅。面对这一鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行在最新研报中正式撤回宽松预测，预计美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，将利率推高至4.1%，并警告7月便可能提前采取行动；高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan则警告，若通胀数据持续顽固，美联储最早秋季重启加息，且极可能以连续2至3次的系列行动出现。花旗Andrew Hollenhorst团队则维持与市场截然相反的基准预测：下一步行动是降息而非加息，基准情景为10月降息25个基点，随后12月和2027年1月再各降25个基点。花旗的核心论点在于：油价急剧下跌正在消除通胀的主要上行风险，初请失业金人数趋势性上升正复制2024年和2025年的季节性走弱模式，而核心PCE在各类通胀指标中日益显现为\"异常值\"，其强势更多反映股价上涨而非广义消费价格压力。花旗的逻辑之一：油价下行正在消除通胀上行风险花旗坚持降息预测的第一个核心论点，来自油价的急速下跌。该行认为，油价走低将带动汽油价格下行，从而消除此前通胀上行的主要来源。基于市场的通胀预期指标已随油价同步回落，10年期通胀盈亏平衡率已降至冲突爆发前的低点水平。花旗指出，若联储官员有更充裕的时间消化这一能源价格的最新变化，本次FOMC会议的鹰派程度将会明显降低。该行认为，随着油价下行效果逐步在数据中体现，未来数月通胀数据将趋于温和，有助于推动更多联储官员在9月前转向更为鸽派的立场，并为年底前降息创造条件。花旗的逻辑之二：劳动力市场走弱信号复制往年季节性规律花旗的第二个核心论点，聚焦于劳动力市场正在浮现的早期走弱信号。初请失业金人数和持续领取失业金人数均已连续数周呈上升趋势。花旗指出，这一模式在2024年和2025年均曾出现，随后均引发了一系列偏弱的月度就业报告和失业率上升，而失业率上升正是花旗预期美联储年内降息的关键驱动力。该行预计，初请失业金人数（6月20日当周）将维持在22.4万附近，持续领取失业金人数小幅增至181.3万，4周移动平均仍将继续走高。当前绝对水平虽仍不高，但若上升趋势持续，将与劳动力市场逐步走弱的判断相符。就整体经济而言，花旗追踪的二季度GDP增速预测为2.5%。消费方面，5月零售销售控制组数据环比增长0.7%，韧性仍在，但实际可支配收入增长已放缓至近乎零增长，储蓄率维持低位，暗示支出增速下行风险正在积聚。花旗的逻辑之三：核心PCE是\"异常值\"，通胀画面并不统一花旗逆势坚守的第三个逻辑支柱，在于对核心PCE数据本身的质疑。5月核心CPI月率仅录得0.21%，呈现温和；但花旗预计，即将公布的5月核心PCE月率将高达0.37%，两者之间已出现显著背离。花旗认为，核心PCE当前偏强的原因具有特殊性：该指标高度受AI相关价格影响，且直接受股价上涨推升——5月PPI数据显示投资组合管理费用月率大涨4.8%，主要反映股价从4月初低点到5月初高位的回升，而非消费端的真实价格压力。从横向比较来看，达拉斯联储修剪均值PCE、旧金山联储周期性PCE、克利夫兰联储中位数PCE以及核心CPI，均显示出比核心PCE更为温和的通胀走势。花旗认为，核心PCE正日益成为各类通胀指标中的\"异常值\"，而非反映广义消费价格压力的可靠信号。花旗预计，随着AI相关价格在下半年趋于横盘，核心PCE与核心CPI之间的差距将逐步收窄，通胀整体走势将更趋向于支持政策宽松。在其预测路径下，核心PCE同比增速预计将从当前的3.3%附近逐步回落，至2027年年中前后降至2.1%-2.2%区间。华尔街\"投降\"：德银预测两次加息，高盛示警连环收紧然而，面对沃什的鹰派冲击，华尔街机构纷纷改变立场。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在研报中明确，此前之所以迟迟未上调预测，主要源于两大不确定性：伊朗局势带来的经济前景高度不确定性，以及新任联储主席沃什的货币政策反应函数尚不清晰。6月FOMC会议的结果一举打消了这两大顾虑。德银大幅上调通胀预测，将2026年底和2027年核心PCE预期分别调升至3.2%和2.5%，并将基准预测更新为：美联储将于9月和12月各加息一次、累计50个基点，利率升至4.1%；此后2027年全年按兵不动，2028年上半年才开始降息。德银同时警告鹰派风险：若沃什已公开承诺\"修复\"价格稳定问题而委员会未及时行动，其公信力将受到考验——这意味着7月便可能提前加息，且若要完全撤回去年连续降息所产生的宽松效果，全年加息幅度或需扩大至75个基点。高盛副董事长Rob Kaplan则明确表示，若从现在到9月通胀数据仍未降温，秋季加息将是\"明智之举\"。他特别强调，美联储的政策调整极少以单次孤立行动出现，利率变动通常以2至3次系列行动展开：\"如果9月采取行动，你需要做好准备，可能还会有一到两次加息。\"曾历经多个货币政策周期的Kaplan基于历史经验的警告，为市场敲响了警钟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBIL":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"VIX":2,"SVXY":0.6,"ZROZ":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"SVIX":0.6,"VGLT":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"UDN":1.5,".DJI":2,"IEF":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"NQmain":2,"VGIT":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"VIXmain":2,"IEI":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"FAZ":1.5,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2,"MUB":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"YMmain":2,"SPY":1.5,"VIXY":2,"BOND":1.5,"QQQ":2,"BND":1.5,".IXIC":2,"TLH":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"SCHO":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"VXX":2,"NGHT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"UVIX":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":577648425726272,"gmtCreate":1782050919633,"gmtModify":1782093356187,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"为什么不叫以色列停止别国的侵略行动","listText":"为什么不叫以色列停止别国的侵略行动","text":"为什么不叫以色列停止别国的侵略行动","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577648425726272","repostId":"1133405038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133405038","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1782050601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133405038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-21 22:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普就黎巴嫩问题再度威胁伊朗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133405038","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"新华社消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗必须立即停止在黎巴嫩的“代理人”行动，否则美国将会再次对伊朗发起猛烈打击，“就像上周那样，而且会更猛烈”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新华社消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗必须立即停止在黎巴嫩的“代理人”行动，否则美国将会再次对伊朗发起猛烈打击，“就像上周那样，而且会更猛烈”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普就黎巴嫩问题再度威胁伊朗</title>\n<style 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left;\">新华社消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗必须立即停止在黎巴嫩的“代理人”行动，否则美国将会再次对伊朗发起猛烈打击，“就像上周那样，而且会更猛烈”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae19786f4043b41efa9dba2e5214b0af","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133405038","content_text":"新华社消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗必须立即停止在黎巴嫩的“代理人”行动，否则美国将会再次对伊朗发起猛烈打击，“就像上周那样，而且会更猛烈”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":569475025809896,"gmtCreate":1780036194838,"gmtModify":1780037158566,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08123\">$华亿金控(08123)$ </a> 又合股后又跌没百七十，这操作没谁了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08123\">$华亿金控(08123)$ </a> 又合股后又跌没百七十，这操作没谁了","text":"$华亿金控(08123)$ 又合股后又跌没百七十，这操作没谁了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569475025809896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":567852717058208,"gmtCreate":1779673641167,"gmtModify":1779673715022,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这家伙就是利用政权炒股[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"这家伙就是利用政权炒股[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"这家伙就是利用政权炒股[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/567852717058208","repostId":"2637096374","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637096374","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779591240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637096374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-24 10:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一季度做了3711笔交易！高频交易、先买后吹，这是“白宫股神”特朗普的交易策略","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637096374","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为\"非主动委托\"的交易，与其公开为相关公司\"站台\"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为"非主动委托"的交易，与其公开为相关公司"站台"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普2026年一季度累计执行了3711笔证券交易，交易规模介于2.2亿至7.5亿美元之间——这是美国在任总统史无前例的资本市场操作量级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据美国政府道德办公室（OGE）5月14日公开的财务披露文件，特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易。文件显示，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为"非主动委托"（unsolicited，即由客户方而非经纪人发起）的交易，与其公开为相关公司"站台"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一面是特朗普集团所称的"第三方独立管理的自动化操作"，另一面是批评者所指的"先买入、后吹捧"——两种叙事交织缠绕，构成了围绕这位"白宫股神"最核心的争议。</p><h2 id=\"id_1344845995\">自动化交易、指数复制与税务收割</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3711笔交易中，超过2000笔发生在3月——伊朗战争引发市场波动率飙升的时期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易的数量和广度涉及数百只证券，大量为小额交易，指向自动化执行而非人工逐笔决策。部分股票在同一天内被反复买卖，说明这份披露可能是多个账户交易的汇总。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资平台Vise联合创始人瓦萨瓦达（Samir Vasavada）指出，披露中的个股与罗素3000指数成分股重合度约达90%，符合"直接指数化"（direct indexing）策略的特征——投资者不买指数基金，而是直接持有指数的全部成分股，目的是进行所谓的"税务亏损收割"：当某只成分股下跌产生浮亏时，系统自动将其卖出，这笔"已实现亏损"可用于抵扣其他投资收益的应缴税款；卖出后再买入同行业类似股票，维持组合对基准指数的整体跟踪。仓位方向没变，但主打一个省税。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易时点也验证了这一操作思路。交易第二繁忙的日期是3月23日，恰逢标普500、400、600及100指数的成分股调整日，同日富时罗素基准也有新股纳入。2月12日和3月18日——标普500跌幅均超1%——分别录得155笔和124笔卖出，正是系统在下跌日自动扫描亏损头寸、集中"收割"的典型表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"税务亏损收割可能是当今高净值和超高净值投资者中最常见的策略，"瓦萨瓦达说，"当你持有数百甚至数千只个股，系统每天都在扫描可收割的亏损头寸时，交易笔数自然就会非常多。我们认为特朗普这份披露文件很可能就是这种策略大规模运作的样子。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普集团的说法与此一致：总统的投资由第三方金融机构独立管理，通过"自动化、模型驱动的投资组合和直接指数化策略"执行，本人、家族及公司均不参与决策。副总统万斯亦称总统在椭圆形办公室炒股的说法"荒谬"。而历届美国总统在任期间通常使用盲目信托或分散化共同基金管理资产，特朗普的做法打破了这一惯例。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但数据中还嵌套着另一层不那么"自动化"的故事。</p><h2 id=\"id_2965487413\">"先买后吹"：非主动委托交易的另一面</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3711笔交易中，625笔被标注为"非主动委托"。它们几乎全部集中在3月，在美国袭击伊朗后的首个交易日大幅激增，绝大多数为买入操作，整体风格比文件中其他系统性交易更为临时和随机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更引人关注的，是多笔此类交易与特朗普公开为相关公司背书的时间线：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>赛默飞世尔（Thermo Fisher）：</strong> 3月11日，特朗普参观赛默飞俄亥俄工厂，盛赞其为"伟大的公司"，鼓励药企与其合作实现制造业回流。同日，他买入1.5万至5万美元赛默飞股票，该笔交易被标注为"非主动委托"。而此前他已在2月12日（5.1万至11.5万美元）和3月2日（1.5万至5万美元）两度建仓，参观当日累计持仓规模最高可达21.5万美元。一位总统在参观一家公司的同一天买入该公司股票，且交易由客户方主导而非经纪人发起——这直接冲击了"独立管理"的叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>苹果（Apple）：</strong> 同日3月11日，特朗普在肯塔基州演讲中赞扬苹果CEO库克。当天买入25万至50万美元苹果股票，标注为"非主动委托"。整个3月，他累计买入200万至720万美元苹果股票，含五笔"非主动委托"交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美光（Micron）：</strong> 3月25日买入5万至10万美元美光股票，标注为"非主动委托"。次日他致电福克斯新闻节目"The Five"，称"我刚见了美光的负责人，这是最炙手可热的公司之一"。3月2日至25日累计买入21.7万至53万美元，含四笔"非主动委托"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>戴尔（Dell）：</strong> 2月10日买入100万至500万美元戴尔股票。9天后在佐治亚州演讲中号召听众"去买台戴尔电脑"。此后他在多个公开场合反复推荐戴尔产品，5月8日白宫母亲节活动上的背书更将戴尔股价推至历史新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>英伟达与AMD：</strong> 1月6日，特朗普分别买入50万至100万美元英伟达股票和5万至10万美元AMD股票。一周后的1月13日，美国商务部正式批准向中国出售部分英伟达芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在买入的另一端，特朗普一季度也进行了大规模减持。亚马逊、Meta和微软的单笔卖出均落入最高披露区间——500万至2500万美元，同时保留了较小规模的买入，呈"大卖小买"的主动敞口管理模式。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc4731a7df8e486a37314899cb64582\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3276469814\">合规争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普的资产目前由其子小唐纳德·特朗普管理的信托持有，而非将受益人与投资决策完全隔离的合规"盲目信托"（qualified blind trust）。换言之，没有法律或实际屏障阻止特朗普介入资产管理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">竞选法律中心总法律顾问佩恩（Kedric Payne）说得直白："总统持有个股本身就是一个固有问题——公众会假定他利用职位进行有利可图的投资。总统不应有任何利用职位谋取经济利益的表象。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按照联邦法律，特朗普须在交易发生后45天内申报，但多笔交易未能按时申报，最终被罚款200美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两党议员已开始推动立法。参议员沃伦称此类交易"应该是违法的"；众议员马加齐纳与共和党众议员罗伊联合提出禁止国会议员炒股的两党法案，另一项法案将禁令扩展至总统和副总统。参议员吉利布兰德则称特朗普的操作是"对其所服务公民的深刻背叛"，"民选官员——尤其是总统——不应该炒股。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，达特茅斯教授萨瑟多特（Bruce Sacerdote）在学术研究中给出了一个颇具玩味的发现：尽管交易量"惊人"，但他并未找到特朗普明显跑赢市场的确凿证据——"即使在政策变动或发推的情况下也是如此。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，对市场而言，总统赚了多少从来不是核心问题。当投资者开始围绕总统言论而非基本面来布局，美国资本市场长期维系的公平交易原则，面临的就是一场信任危机。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一季度做了3711笔交易！高频交易、先买后吹，这是“白宫股神”特朗普的交易策略</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一季度做了3711笔交易！高频交易、先买后吹，这是“白宫股神”特朗普的交易策略\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-24 10:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为"非主动委托"的交易，与其公开为相关公司"站台"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普2026年一季度累计执行了3711笔证券交易，交易规模介于2.2亿至7.5亿美元之间——这是美国在任总统史无前例的资本市场操作量级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据美国政府道德办公室（OGE）5月14日公开的财务披露文件，特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易。文件显示，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为"非主动委托"（unsolicited，即由客户方而非经纪人发起）的交易，与其公开为相关公司"站台"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一面是特朗普集团所称的"第三方独立管理的自动化操作"，另一面是批评者所指的"先买入、后吹捧"——两种叙事交织缠绕，构成了围绕这位"白宫股神"最核心的争议。</p><h2 id=\"id_1344845995\">自动化交易、指数复制与税务收割</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3711笔交易中，超过2000笔发生在3月——伊朗战争引发市场波动率飙升的时期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易的数量和广度涉及数百只证券，大量为小额交易，指向自动化执行而非人工逐笔决策。部分股票在同一天内被反复买卖，说明这份披露可能是多个账户交易的汇总。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资平台Vise联合创始人瓦萨瓦达（Samir Vasavada）指出，披露中的个股与罗素3000指数成分股重合度约达90%，符合"直接指数化"（direct indexing）策略的特征——投资者不买指数基金，而是直接持有指数的全部成分股，目的是进行所谓的"税务亏损收割"：当某只成分股下跌产生浮亏时，系统自动将其卖出，这笔"已实现亏损"可用于抵扣其他投资收益的应缴税款；卖出后再买入同行业类似股票，维持组合对基准指数的整体跟踪。仓位方向没变，但主打一个省税。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易时点也验证了这一操作思路。交易第二繁忙的日期是3月23日，恰逢标普500、400、600及100指数的成分股调整日，同日富时罗素基准也有新股纳入。2月12日和3月18日——标普500跌幅均超1%——分别录得155笔和124笔卖出，正是系统在下跌日自动扫描亏损头寸、集中"收割"的典型表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"税务亏损收割可能是当今高净值和超高净值投资者中最常见的策略，"瓦萨瓦达说，"当你持有数百甚至数千只个股，系统每天都在扫描可收割的亏损头寸时，交易笔数自然就会非常多。我们认为特朗普这份披露文件很可能就是这种策略大规模运作的样子。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普集团的说法与此一致：总统的投资由第三方金融机构独立管理，通过"自动化、模型驱动的投资组合和直接指数化策略"执行，本人、家族及公司均不参与决策。副总统万斯亦称总统在椭圆形办公室炒股的说法"荒谬"。而历届美国总统在任期间通常使用盲目信托或分散化共同基金管理资产，特朗普的做法打破了这一惯例。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但数据中还嵌套着另一层不那么"自动化"的故事。</p><h2 id=\"id_2965487413\">"先买后吹"：非主动委托交易的另一面</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3711笔交易中，625笔被标注为"非主动委托"。它们几乎全部集中在3月，在美国袭击伊朗后的首个交易日大幅激增，绝大多数为买入操作，整体风格比文件中其他系统性交易更为临时和随机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更引人关注的，是多笔此类交易与特朗普公开为相关公司背书的时间线：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>赛默飞世尔（Thermo Fisher）：</strong> 3月11日，特朗普参观赛默飞俄亥俄工厂，盛赞其为"伟大的公司"，鼓励药企与其合作实现制造业回流。同日，他买入1.5万至5万美元赛默飞股票，该笔交易被标注为"非主动委托"。而此前他已在2月12日（5.1万至11.5万美元）和3月2日（1.5万至5万美元）两度建仓，参观当日累计持仓规模最高可达21.5万美元。一位总统在参观一家公司的同一天买入该公司股票，且交易由客户方主导而非经纪人发起——这直接冲击了"独立管理"的叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>苹果（Apple）：</strong> 同日3月11日，特朗普在肯塔基州演讲中赞扬苹果CEO库克。当天买入25万至50万美元苹果股票，标注为"非主动委托"。整个3月，他累计买入200万至720万美元苹果股票，含五笔"非主动委托"交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美光（Micron）：</strong> 3月25日买入5万至10万美元美光股票，标注为"非主动委托"。次日他致电福克斯新闻节目"The Five"，称"我刚见了美光的负责人，这是最炙手可热的公司之一"。3月2日至25日累计买入21.7万至53万美元，含四笔"非主动委托"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>戴尔（Dell）：</strong> 2月10日买入100万至500万美元戴尔股票。9天后在佐治亚州演讲中号召听众"去买台戴尔电脑"。此后他在多个公开场合反复推荐戴尔产品，5月8日白宫母亲节活动上的背书更将戴尔股价推至历史新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>英伟达与AMD：</strong> 1月6日，特朗普分别买入50万至100万美元英伟达股票和5万至10万美元AMD股票。一周后的1月13日，美国商务部正式批准向中国出售部分英伟达芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在买入的另一端，特朗普一季度也进行了大规模减持。亚马逊、Meta和微软的单笔卖出均落入最高披露区间——500万至2500万美元，同时保留了较小规模的买入，呈"大卖小买"的主动敞口管理模式。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc4731a7df8e486a37314899cb64582\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3276469814\">合规争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特朗普的资产目前由其子小唐纳德·特朗普管理的信托持有，而非将受益人与投资决策完全隔离的合规"盲目信托"（qualified blind trust）。换言之，没有法律或实际屏障阻止特朗普介入资产管理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">竞选法律中心总法律顾问佩恩（Kedric Payne）说得直白："总统持有个股本身就是一个固有问题——公众会假定他利用职位进行有利可图的投资。总统不应有任何利用职位谋取经济利益的表象。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按照联邦法律，特朗普须在交易发生后45天内申报，但多笔交易未能按时申报，最终被罚款200美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两党议员已开始推动立法。参议员沃伦称此类交易"应该是违法的"；众议员马加齐纳与共和党众议员罗伊联合提出禁止国会议员炒股的两党法案，另一项法案将禁令扩展至总统和副总统。参议员吉利布兰德则称特朗普的操作是"对其所服务公民的深刻背叛"，"民选官员——尤其是总统——不应该炒股。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，达特茅斯教授萨瑟多特（Bruce Sacerdote）在学术研究中给出了一个颇具玩味的发现：尽管交易量"惊人"，但他并未找到特朗普明显跑赢市场的确凿证据——"即使在政策变动或发推的情况下也是如此。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，对市场而言，总统赚了多少从来不是核心问题。当投资者开始围绕总统言论而非基本面来布局，美国资本市场长期维系的公平交易原则，面临的就是一场信任危机。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","VERS":"PROSHARES METAVERSE ETF","AAPU":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-Direxion","APLY":"AAPL期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0174119429.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" ACC","AAPW":"AAPL周配息ETF-Roundhill","OGE":"OGE Energy Corp","YMAG":"YieldMax Magnificent 7 Fund of Option Income ETF","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","AAPX":"2倍做多Apple ETF-T-Rex","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BULZ":"MicroSectors FANG & Innovation 3X Leveraged ETN","AAPY":"AAPL收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","WTAI":"WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0345768740.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) INC","AAPB":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-GraniteShares","LU2637965513.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A10\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","AAPD":"1倍做空AAPL ETF-Direxion","MAGY":"Roundhill Magnificent Seven Covered Call ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","PTF":"Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772984","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637096374","content_text":"特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为\"非主动委托\"的交易，与其公开为相关公司\"站台\"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。美国总统特朗普2026年一季度累计执行了3711笔证券交易，交易规模介于2.2亿至7.5亿美元之间——这是美国在任总统史无前例的资本市场操作量级。据美国政府道德办公室（OGE）5月14日公开的财务披露文件，特朗普在2026年前三个月进行了大规模证券交易。文件显示，这些交易背后叠加了指数跟踪、税务亏损收割、自动化执行等多重策略，但其中625笔标注为\"非主动委托\"（unsolicited，即由客户方而非经纪人发起）的交易，与其公开为相关公司\"站台\"的时间形成了令人瞩目的重合。一面是特朗普集团所称的\"第三方独立管理的自动化操作\"，另一面是批评者所指的\"先买入、后吹捧\"——两种叙事交织缠绕，构成了围绕这位\"白宫股神\"最核心的争议。自动化交易、指数复制与税务收割3711笔交易中，超过2000笔发生在3月——伊朗战争引发市场波动率飙升的时期。交易的数量和广度涉及数百只证券，大量为小额交易，指向自动化执行而非人工逐笔决策。部分股票在同一天内被反复买卖，说明这份披露可能是多个账户交易的汇总。投资平台Vise联合创始人瓦萨瓦达（Samir Vasavada）指出，披露中的个股与罗素3000指数成分股重合度约达90%，符合\"直接指数化\"（direct indexing）策略的特征——投资者不买指数基金，而是直接持有指数的全部成分股，目的是进行所谓的\"税务亏损收割\"：当某只成分股下跌产生浮亏时，系统自动将其卖出，这笔\"已实现亏损\"可用于抵扣其他投资收益的应缴税款；卖出后再买入同行业类似股票，维持组合对基准指数的整体跟踪。仓位方向没变，但主打一个省税。交易时点也验证了这一操作思路。交易第二繁忙的日期是3月23日，恰逢标普500、400、600及100指数的成分股调整日，同日富时罗素基准也有新股纳入。2月12日和3月18日——标普500跌幅均超1%——分别录得155笔和124笔卖出，正是系统在下跌日自动扫描亏损头寸、集中\"收割\"的典型表现。\"税务亏损收割可能是当今高净值和超高净值投资者中最常见的策略，\"瓦萨瓦达说，\"当你持有数百甚至数千只个股，系统每天都在扫描可收割的亏损头寸时，交易笔数自然就会非常多。我们认为特朗普这份披露文件很可能就是这种策略大规模运作的样子。\"特朗普集团的说法与此一致：总统的投资由第三方金融机构独立管理，通过\"自动化、模型驱动的投资组合和直接指数化策略\"执行，本人、家族及公司均不参与决策。副总统万斯亦称总统在椭圆形办公室炒股的说法\"荒谬\"。而历届美国总统在任期间通常使用盲目信托或分散化共同基金管理资产，特朗普的做法打破了这一惯例。但数据中还嵌套着另一层不那么\"自动化\"的故事。\"先买后吹\"：非主动委托交易的另一面3711笔交易中，625笔被标注为\"非主动委托\"。它们几乎全部集中在3月，在美国袭击伊朗后的首个交易日大幅激增，绝大多数为买入操作，整体风格比文件中其他系统性交易更为临时和随机。更引人关注的，是多笔此类交易与特朗普公开为相关公司背书的时间线：赛默飞世尔（Thermo Fisher）： 3月11日，特朗普参观赛默飞俄亥俄工厂，盛赞其为\"伟大的公司\"，鼓励药企与其合作实现制造业回流。同日，他买入1.5万至5万美元赛默飞股票，该笔交易被标注为\"非主动委托\"。而此前他已在2月12日（5.1万至11.5万美元）和3月2日（1.5万至5万美元）两度建仓，参观当日累计持仓规模最高可达21.5万美元。一位总统在参观一家公司的同一天买入该公司股票，且交易由客户方主导而非经纪人发起——这直接冲击了\"独立管理\"的叙事。苹果（Apple）： 同日3月11日，特朗普在肯塔基州演讲中赞扬苹果CEO库克。当天买入25万至50万美元苹果股票，标注为\"非主动委托\"。整个3月，他累计买入200万至720万美元苹果股票，含五笔\"非主动委托\"交易。美光（Micron）： 3月25日买入5万至10万美元美光股票，标注为\"非主动委托\"。次日他致电福克斯新闻节目\"The Five\"，称\"我刚见了美光的负责人，这是最炙手可热的公司之一\"。3月2日至25日累计买入21.7万至53万美元，含四笔\"非主动委托\"。戴尔（Dell）： 2月10日买入100万至500万美元戴尔股票。9天后在佐治亚州演讲中号召听众\"去买台戴尔电脑\"。此后他在多个公开场合反复推荐戴尔产品，5月8日白宫母亲节活动上的背书更将戴尔股价推至历史新高。英伟达与AMD： 1月6日，特朗普分别买入50万至100万美元英伟达股票和5万至10万美元AMD股票。一周后的1月13日，美国商务部正式批准向中国出售部分英伟达芯片。在买入的另一端，特朗普一季度也进行了大规模减持。亚马逊、Meta和微软的单笔卖出均落入最高披露区间——500万至2500万美元，同时保留了较小规模的买入，呈\"大卖小买\"的主动敞口管理模式。合规争议特朗普的资产目前由其子小唐纳德·特朗普管理的信托持有，而非将受益人与投资决策完全隔离的合规\"盲目信托\"（qualified blind trust）。换言之，没有法律或实际屏障阻止特朗普介入资产管理。竞选法律中心总法律顾问佩恩（Kedric Payne）说得直白：\"总统持有个股本身就是一个固有问题——公众会假定他利用职位进行有利可图的投资。总统不应有任何利用职位谋取经济利益的表象。\"按照联邦法律，特朗普须在交易发生后45天内申报，但多笔交易未能按时申报，最终被罚款200美元。两党议员已开始推动立法。参议员沃伦称此类交易\"应该是违法的\"；众议员马加齐纳与共和党众议员罗伊联合提出禁止国会议员炒股的两党法案，另一项法案将禁令扩展至总统和副总统。参议员吉利布兰德则称特朗普的操作是\"对其所服务公民的深刻背叛\"，\"民选官员——尤其是总统——不应该炒股。\"不过，达特茅斯教授萨瑟多特（Bruce Sacerdote）在学术研究中给出了一个颇具玩味的发现：尽管交易量\"惊人\"，但他并未找到特朗普明显跑赢市场的确凿证据——\"即使在政策变动或发推的情况下也是如此。\"不过，对市场而言，总统赚了多少从来不是核心问题。当投资者开始围绕总统言论而非基本面来布局，美国资本市场长期维系的公平交易原则，面临的就是一场信任危机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":0.74,"AAPU":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"MAGY":0.9,"AAPW":0.6,"BULZ":0.9,"AMZN":0.6,"META":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"VERS":0.74,"AAPB":0.6,"WTAI":0.74,"TSLA":0.6,"PTF":0.74,"AAPY":0.6,"OGE":1,"MSFT":0.6,"YMAG":0.9,"GOOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565608075961320,"gmtCreate":1779122225880,"gmtModify":1779122228466,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"继续打，打到同意所有为止，光🦶的还怕有鞋穿的。你也要让他尝尝没鞋穿的滋味。","listText":"继续打，打到同意所有为止，光🦶的还怕有鞋穿的。你也要让他尝尝没鞋穿的滋味。","text":"继续打，打到同意所有为止，光🦶的还怕有鞋穿的。你也要让他尝尝没鞋穿的滋味。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565608075961320","repostId":"1147190760","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147190760","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1779115115,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147190760?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-18 22:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗消息称美方展现灵活性，伊方重申核心立场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147190760","media":"央视新闻客户端","summary":"总台记者当地时间18日获悉，一位伊朗高级消息人士称，美国在允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下维持有限的和平核活动方面展现了灵活性。但在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上，华盛顿只同意按照分阶段的时间表解冻其中四分之一的资产。消息人士表示，伊朗希望美国重新考虑针对以上问题的相关立场。该消息人士称，伊朗在其新提案中再次强调结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及解除海上制裁的要求。消息还称，伊朗核计划和铀浓缩等问题仍然是美伊谈判中最棘手的部分，已被推迟到后续几轮谈判中讨论。（总台记者 张颖哲）","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>总台记者当地时间18日获悉，一位伊朗高级消息人士称，美国在允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下维持有限的和平核活动方面展现了灵活性。但在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上，华盛顿只同意按照分阶段的时间表解冻其中四分之一的资产。消息人士表示，伊朗希望美国重新考虑针对以上问题的相关立场。</p><p>该消息人士称，伊朗在其新提案中再次强调结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及解除海上制裁的要求。</p><p>消息还称，伊朗核计划和铀浓缩等问题仍然是美伊谈判中最棘手的部分，已被推迟到后续几轮谈判中讨论。（总台记者 张颖哲）</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗消息称美方展现灵活性，伊方重申核心立场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗消息称美方展现灵活性，伊方重申核心立场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-18 22:38 北京时间 <a href=https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=2723249607648639287&t=1779114808219&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=11995ADE-0D6C-466C-B1E5-4354941E3DDD_800807819525&share_to=copy_url><strong>央视新闻客户端</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>总台记者当地时间18日获悉，一位伊朗高级消息人士称，美国在允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下维持有限的和平核活动方面展现了灵活性。但在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上，华盛顿只同意按照分阶段的时间表解冻其中四分之一的资产。消息人士表示，伊朗希望美国重新考虑针对以上问题的相关立场。该消息人士称，伊朗在其新提案中再次强调结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及解除海上制裁的要求。消息还称，伊朗核计划和铀浓缩等问题仍然是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=2723249607648639287&t=1779114808219&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=11995ADE-0D6C-466C-B1E5-4354941E3DDD_800807819525&share_to=copy_url\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/663c92fcfcc7507c5c2de66390b530f9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=2723249607648639287&t=1779114808219&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=11995ADE-0D6C-466C-B1E5-4354941E3DDD_800807819525&share_to=copy_url","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147190760","content_text":"总台记者当地时间18日获悉，一位伊朗高级消息人士称，美国在允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下维持有限的和平核活动方面展现了灵活性。但在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上，华盛顿只同意按照分阶段的时间表解冻其中四分之一的资产。消息人士表示，伊朗希望美国重新考虑针对以上问题的相关立场。该消息人士称，伊朗在其新提案中再次强调结束战争、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及解除海上制裁的要求。消息还称，伊朗核计划和铀浓缩等问题仍然是美伊谈判中最棘手的部分，已被推迟到后续几轮谈判中讨论。（总台记者 张颖哲）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QMmain":2,"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563410252040304,"gmtCreate":1778570982776,"gmtModify":1778570985537,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"股市怎么知道海峡能不能通行运油？","listText":"股市怎么知道海峡能不能通行运油？","text":"股市怎么知道海峡能不能通行运油？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563410252040304","repostId":"1155929655","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155929655","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778570739,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155929655?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-12 15:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"国际油价大涨，美国与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155929655","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"全球原油市场继续呈现供应趋紧的局面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二，WTI及布伦特油价均快速拉升，涨幅超2%，美国总统特朗普称与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”。盛宝银行的分析师指出：“油价已连续第二个交易日上涨，原因在于随着霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航的前景依然渺茫，全球原油市场继续呈现供应趋紧的局面。”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca94b1dc0a686d30e23952b0c086f9eb\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>与此同时，市场目光正转向即将发布的一系列月度展望报告，美国能源信息署（EIA）将于周二晚些时候发布报告，而国际能源署（IEA）与石油输出国组织（OPEC）的报告则定于周三发布，投资者期待从中获取更多关于供需前景的指引。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价大涨，美国与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-12 15:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周二，WTI及布伦特油价均快速拉升，涨幅超2%，美国总统特朗普称与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”。盛宝银行的分析师指出：“油价已连续第二个交易日上涨，原因在于随着霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航的前景依然渺茫，全球原油市场继续呈现供应趋紧的局面。”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca94b1dc0a686d30e23952b0c086f9eb\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>与此同时，市场目光正转向即将发布的一系列月度展望报告，美国能源信息署（EIA）将于周二晚些时候发布报告，而国际能源署（IEA）与石油输出国组织（OPEC）的报告则定于周三发布，投资者期待从中获取更多关于供需前景的指引。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c66a5b9bfdc49a131bfa0c4be6018c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155929655","content_text":"周二，WTI及布伦特油价均快速拉升，涨幅超2%，美国总统特朗普称与伊朗的停火协议已“命悬一线”。盛宝银行的分析师指出：“油价已连续第二个交易日上涨，原因在于随着霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航的前景依然渺茫，全球原油市场继续呈现供应趋紧的局面。”与此同时，市场目光正转向即将发布的一系列月度展望报告，美国能源信息署（EIA）将于周二晚些时候发布报告，而国际能源署（IEA）与石油输出国组织（OPEC）的报告则定于周三发布，投资者期待从中获取更多关于供需前景的指引。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4241092552921442","authorId":"4241092552921442","name":"Brother honghu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be894fe39e5336f6add78f78e3919715","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4241092552921442","authorIdStr":"4241092552921442"},"content":"问这话就证明股市不适合你[捂脸]","text":"问这话就证明股市不适合你[捂脸]","html":"问这话就证明股市不适合你[捂脸]"},{"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorIdStr":"3568099945700012"},"content":"[开心]你去算命啊 可以算出来","text":"[开心]你去算命啊 可以算出来","html":"[开心]你去算命啊 可以算出来"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561890733847840,"gmtCreate":1778212061436,"gmtModify":1778212063596,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08123\">$华亿金控(08123)$ </a> 华亿又有排跌了[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08123\">$华亿金控(08123)$ </a> 华亿又有排跌了[开心] ","text":"$华亿金控(08123)$ 华亿又有排跌了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561890733847840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561498699990856,"gmtCreate":1778116417169,"gmtModify":1778118994808,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一个使劲吹胀，一个使劲踢爆[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"一个使劲吹胀，一个使劲踢爆[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"一个使劲吹胀，一个使劲踢爆[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561498699990856","repostId":"1124503554","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124503554","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778116171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124503554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-07 09:09","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124503554","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒称伊朗将在周四回应美方提议，伊朗议长斥责其为“虚假媒体叙事”</title>\n<style 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09:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据CNN：<strong>一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。</strong></p><p>据伊朗Press TV报道，<strong>伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。</strong>周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f667d36a087f6144733e56bd1e3f0377","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124503554","content_text":"据CNN：一位消息人士表示，伊朗预计将于周四向调解人提交关于美国提出的结束战争提议的答复。伊朗一直在对美国提出的提议进行审查，消息人士称，双方正在朝着达成一项结束战争的协议而努力。据伊朗Press TV报道，伊朗议会议长驳斥了近期有关德黑兰与华盛顿之间即将达成某种协议的报道，称这些报道具有误导性，是源自美国的、屡见不鲜的虚假媒体叙事的一部分。周四，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫在社交媒体上发文，提及了美国媒体Axios关于此类安排的报道，并讽刺地将其称为“Operation Fauxios”（假装行动）。他指出，此类报道的流传反映了美国媒体报道中的一种惯常模式，尤其是那些援引匿名消息来源的报道——伊朗官员曾多次驳斥这些报道毫无根据，而事后事实也总是证明这些报道是错误的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":560818341672912,"gmtCreate":1777950318652,"gmtModify":1777955266258,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08283\">$中食民安(08283)$ </a> 还有四五十分，又有排跌在[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08283\">$中食民安(08283)$ </a> 还有四五十分，又有排跌在[开心] ","text":"$中食民安(08283)$ 还有四五十分，又有排跌在[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/560818341672912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559427316704520,"gmtCreate":1777610710414,"gmtModify":1777610712763,"author":{"id":"3493342122005714","authorId":"3493342122005714","name":"者孤勇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce5543f38f2fb74c09dad1c08971c13","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493342122005714","authorIdStr":"3493342122005714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"因为代替阿达的产品出来了[开心] ","listText":"因为代替阿达的产品出来了[开心] ","text":"因为代替阿达的产品出来了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559427316704520","repostId":"2632693334","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2632693334","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777597570,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2632693334?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-01 09:06","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"科技巨头AI支出大增，为什么英伟达还跌了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2632693334","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场担忧核心在于，谷歌宣布向外部销售自研TPU芯片，亚马逊自研Trainium芯片年化营收突破200亿美元，英伟达最大客户正加速成为其竞争对手。分析师警示此举可能\"从根本上颠覆英伟达\"，但也有观点认为AI需求爆发式增长下，供给才是瓶颈。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>科技巨头密集上调AI资本开支，理应是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的重大利好，但市场给出了截然相反的答案。</p><p>周四，英伟达股价下跌逾4%，跌破200美元关口，单日跌幅金额近10美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16762e51c43cc5bb876ef154a63a9cfb\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>此前一晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>相继公布财报，四家超大规模云计算商合计预计在2026年投入高达7250亿美元用于AI基础设施建设。</p><p>英伟达占据AI加速芯片市场约90%的份额，按常理，这一投资浪潮本应直接惠及这家芯片巨头。<strong>但是投资者的担忧，当英伟达最重要的客户开始大规模自研芯片，其市场主导地位将面临挑战。</strong></p><p>此前Alphabet宣布将向外部客户销售自研TPU芯片，亚马逊则在财报电话会议上着重强调自研芯片业务的快速增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_2690273616\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>TPU"破圈"，触动市场最敏感神经</h2><p><strong>Alphabet宣布，将向外部精选客户销售自研TPU芯片，客户可将其部署于自有数据中心基础设施之中。</strong></p><p>此前，TPU几乎完全服务于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>内部生态。一旦面向外部商业化，TPU将从英伟达GPU的潜在竞争者，演变为具有实质威胁的市场对手。</p><p>尽管TPU在通用灵活性上普遍被认为不及英伟达的解决方案，但针对特定AI应用场景，其成本效益优势较为突出。</p><p><strong>亚马逊同样在财报电话会议上强调自研芯片业务的扩张势头。</strong></p><p>据彭博报道，亚马逊CEO Andy Jassy表示，该公司芯片业务年化营收已突破200亿美元，同比呈三位数增长，核心产品为自研的Trainium芯片。</p><h2 id=\"id_1253148848\">华尔街分析师：自研芯片浪潮构成"重大风险"</h2><p>对于这一竞争态势，华尔街已有分析师发出明确警示。</p><p>Seaport Research半导体分析师Jay Goldberg直言：</p><blockquote><p>这有可能从根本上颠覆英伟达，我认为这是相当重大的风险。</p></blockquote><p>Goldberg的逻辑基于超大规模云计算商的体量与资本实力。这些公司既是英伟达最大的客户，也在持续投入资源成为其竞争者。</p><p>Alphabet第一财季云收入同比增长63%至200.3亿美元，订单积压接近翻倍至逾4600亿美元，<strong>其中相当部分由内部TPU承接。</strong></p><p>Meta则在将2026年资本开支指引上调至1250亿至1450亿美元的同时，<strong>同步推进MTIA自研芯片项目。</strong></p><p><strong>不过，并非所有分析师都认同这一悲观判断。</strong></p><p>Bernstein Research的Stacy Rasgon提出反驳，认为"纠结于谁赢谁输是错误的问题"。他的逻辑在于：<strong>AI智能体的兴起令计算需求呈爆发式增长，当前制约行业的关键因素是供给，而非需求。</strong></p><p>在此背景下，所有具备可信产能的芯片制造商，包括英伟达均能实现产能满销。</p><p>英伟达目前握有952亿美元供应承诺，合作客户覆盖OpenAI、Anthropic、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>及Meta等头部机构。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技巨头AI支出大增，为什么英伟达还跌了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技巨头AI支出大增，为什么英伟达还跌了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-01 09:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>科技巨头密集上调AI资本开支，理应是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的重大利好，但市场给出了截然相反的答案。</p><p>周四，英伟达股价下跌逾4%，跌破200美元关口，单日跌幅金额近10美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16762e51c43cc5bb876ef154a63a9cfb\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>此前一晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>相继公布财报，四家超大规模云计算商合计预计在2026年投入高达7250亿美元用于AI基础设施建设。</p><p>英伟达占据AI加速芯片市场约90%的份额，按常理，这一投资浪潮本应直接惠及这家芯片巨头。<strong>但是投资者的担忧，当英伟达最重要的客户开始大规模自研芯片，其市场主导地位将面临挑战。</strong></p><p>此前Alphabet宣布将向外部客户销售自研TPU芯片，亚马逊则在财报电话会议上着重强调自研芯片业务的快速增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_2690273616\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>TPU"破圈"，触动市场最敏感神经</h2><p><strong>Alphabet宣布，将向外部精选客户销售自研TPU芯片，客户可将其部署于自有数据中心基础设施之中。</strong></p><p>此前，TPU几乎完全服务于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>内部生态。一旦面向外部商业化，TPU将从英伟达GPU的潜在竞争者，演变为具有实质威胁的市场对手。</p><p>尽管TPU在通用灵活性上普遍被认为不及英伟达的解决方案，但针对特定AI应用场景，其成本效益优势较为突出。</p><p><strong>亚马逊同样在财报电话会议上强调自研芯片业务的扩张势头。</strong></p><p>据彭博报道，亚马逊CEO Andy Jassy表示，该公司芯片业务年化营收已突破200亿美元，同比呈三位数增长，核心产品为自研的Trainium芯片。</p><h2 id=\"id_1253148848\">华尔街分析师：自研芯片浪潮构成"重大风险"</h2><p>对于这一竞争态势，华尔街已有分析师发出明确警示。</p><p>Seaport Research半导体分析师Jay Goldberg直言：</p><blockquote><p>这有可能从根本上颠覆英伟达，我认为这是相当重大的风险。</p></blockquote><p>Goldberg的逻辑基于超大规模云计算商的体量与资本实力。这些公司既是英伟达最大的客户，也在持续投入资源成为其竞争者。</p><p>Alphabet第一财季云收入同比增长63%至200.3亿美元，订单积压接近翻倍至逾4600亿美元，<strong>其中相当部分由内部TPU承接。</strong></p><p>Meta则在将2026年资本开支指引上调至1250亿至1450亿美元的同时，<strong>同步推进MTIA自研芯片项目。</strong></p><p><strong>不过，并非所有分析师都认同这一悲观判断。</strong></p><p>Bernstein Research的Stacy Rasgon提出反驳，认为"纠结于谁赢谁输是错误的问题"。他的逻辑在于：<strong>AI智能体的兴起令计算需求呈爆发式增长，当前制约行业的关键因素是供给，而非需求。</strong></p><p>在此背景下，所有具备可信产能的芯片制造商，包括英伟达均能实现产能满销。</p><p>英伟达目前握有952亿美元供应承诺，合作客户覆盖OpenAI、Anthropic、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>及Meta等头部机构。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) 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Research半导体分析师Jay Goldberg直言：这有可能从根本上颠覆英伟达，我认为这是相当重大的风险。Goldberg的逻辑基于超大规模云计算商的体量与资本实力。这些公司既是英伟达最大的客户，也在持续投入资源成为其竞争者。Alphabet第一财季云收入同比增长63%至200.3亿美元，订单积压接近翻倍至逾4600亿美元，其中相当部分由内部TPU承接。Meta则在将2026年资本开支指引上调至1250亿至1450亿美元的同时，同步推进MTIA自研芯片项目。不过，并非所有分析师都认同这一悲观判断。Bernstein Research的Stacy Rasgon提出反驳，认为\"纠结于谁赢谁输是错误的问题\"。他的逻辑在于：AI智能体的兴起令计算需求呈爆发式增长，当前制约行业的关键因素是供给，而非需求。在此背景下，所有具备可信产能的芯片制造商，包括英伟达均能实现产能满销。英伟达目前握有952亿美元供应承诺，合作客户覆盖OpenAI、Anthropic、CoreWeave及Meta等头部机构。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDO":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}