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momogogo
momogogo
·
09-11
就算加息，又能咋地？
美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%
若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”
美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-29
我理你个鬼
美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了
过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。
美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-20
回归正常
港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元
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momogogo
momogogo
·
07-14
$美光科技(MU)$
拉胯
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momogogo
momogogo
·
06-29
吃饱了撑的吗？
三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格
三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。
三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-28
$ST华谊(300027)$
在你们创业板IPO第一天，我就知道你们是来圈钱的，今天才被打回原形，还是晚了，这类公司这类人群，应该更早被甄别出来。
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-25
你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了
伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署
仍有条款存在争议。
伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-21
理华尔街作甚？
英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？
英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。
英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-19
神棍进化为搅屎棍
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momogogo
momogogo
·
05-18
我呸
英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！
高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。
英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITB\">五三银行</a>首席美国经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议“最后拼图”今夜揭晓！8月CPI或达3.4%，加息概率现已飙破73%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-11 09:30 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","XLRI":"The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Premium Income 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ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1494773.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2666512931","content_text":"9月11日，美国劳工统计局将于美东时间上午8:30(北京时间今夜20:30)公布8月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这份报告将是美联储下周利率决议前获得的最后一块通胀拼图。若道琼斯共识正确，报告将显示上月所有商品和服务价格环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率达3.4%。但剔除食品和能源价格后，核心通胀的环比和同比预期分别为0.2%和2.4%。结合周四公布的生产者价格指数(PPI，衡量批发通胀的指标)，CPI将有助于美联储官员预判其首选通胀指标——个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数在9月底公布时的表现。该数据预计也将在下周三联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决策中占据重要分量，任何一个百分点的变化都可能意味着维持利率不变还是加息。“9月FOMC决策最终取决于CPI数据……因为PCE的大部分分项源自CPI，”野村经济学家在报告中表示。“目前，我们维持美联储9月FOMC会议不加息的预测。但若8月CPI数据，尤其是与PCE相关的分项意外上行，将显著增加下周政策收紧的可能性。”周四PPI数据发布后，根据芝商所FedWatch对期货价格的衡量，交易员将加息25个基点的概率提升至73%以上。然而，预期一直波动不定，高度依赖数据及能源价格走势，这使得周五数据的利害关系更为重大。美联储主席凯文·沃什已表示，货币政策方向依赖市场指标。“9月美联储决策在月初看来势均力敌。9月能源价格飙升可能在下周美联储会议时使天平偏向加息，”五三银行首席美国经济学家比尔·亚当斯表示。“明天8月CPI报告出现重大意外，或与伊朗达成最后一刻协议，仍可能影响决策。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SSO":0.6,"SHY":1.5,"MYCN":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"AGZD":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"NELS":1.5,"HIBL":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"OOQB":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,"TUA":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"BIV":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,"IBTJ":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"TBIL":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"SH":0.6,"BOXX":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"QSWN":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"TMF":1.5,".SPX":2,"MUNX":1.5,"SDOW":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"BND":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"GBIL":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"DOG":0.6,"EMPB":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"DMAX":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"BUCK":1.5,"SPXL":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".IXIC":2,"AGG":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"SPYU":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"RAUS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591109713944848,"gmtCreate":1785317768870,"gmtModify":1785317770633,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我理你个鬼","listText":"我理你个鬼","text":"我理你个鬼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591109713944848","repostId":"1196328231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196328231","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785315516,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196328231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196328231","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储决议前夜：这一次，华尔街真的猜不透了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 16:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一、最值得关注：利率决定本身</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>二、沃什真正想传递什么？</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种策略也存在争议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>焦点仍在9月</strong></h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","SGOV":"Ishares Trust Ishares 0-3 Month Treasury BOND ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion",".DJI":"道琼斯","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","TMV":"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SHV":"Ishares Trust Trust Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196328231","content_text":"过去，美联储召开议息会议前，市场通常早已对结果形成一致预期，但这一次却不同。两周前，市场普遍认为，美联储将在本次会议上继续维持利率于3.5%至3.75%区间不变。多位美联储高层此前释放的信号也显示，只有在通胀重新走强的情况下才有必要加息。而6月公布的通胀数据低于预期，使市场一度认为，若需要进一步收紧政策，也更可能等到9月。然而，上周美伊停火协议破裂、油价迅速上涨后，市场情绪开始发生变化。越来越多交易员开始押注7月加息，而这种预期又进一步推高了市场的加息定价，形成了“预期推动预期”的局面。周二，利率期货市场显示，美联储本周加息的概率约为三分之一，预测市场给出的概率则略低一些。市场之所以重新开始讨论7月加息，并非因为美联储官员释放了新的信号，而是投资者开始猜测，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是否会基于自己的判断推动一次“意外加息”。因此，这场会议越来越像是在猜测一位主席的决策逻辑，而非整个委员会的共识。一、最值得关注：利率决定本身如果美联储维持利率不变，这仍然是最符合市场主流预期的结果。无论是6月偏温和的通胀数据，还是此前多位官员释放的政策信号，都支持继续观望。两周前，沃什在长达五小时的国会听证会上，也没有任何为加息提前铺路的表态。若最终按兵不动，市场将重点关注是否出现反对票。如果有委员支持加息，意味着委员会内部要求进一步收紧政策的声音正在增强。过去，美联储主席通常会通过调整声明措辞，或暗示未来会议更可能采取行动，来减少委员公开投下反对票。但沃什一直主张减少这种“前瞻性指引”，如果坚持这一做法，他可能更难避免内部意见分歧被公开。如果美联储意外宣布加息，则意味着政策立场发生明显转向。这不仅会削弱此前官员释放政策信号的可信度，也可能带来政治影响。过去一年，白宫一直强调美国通胀已受到控制、当前利率偏高。如果由特朗普提名的美联储主席推动加息，无疑将向市场传递完全相反的信息，也有助于打消外界关于沃什受白宫影响的质疑。二、沃什真正想传递什么？如果选择加息，更大的意义或许在于释放一种政策态度。沃什一直强调，要结束美国过去五年来持续高于2%目标的通胀局面。如果在前任主席选择等待的时候率先行动，将比任何公开讲话都更能体现其控制通胀的决心。不过，这种策略也存在争议。纽约联储主席、FOMC副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）本月早些时候明确表示，美联储的公信力来自于依据经济数据作出正确决策，而不是试图通过货币政策本身去塑造市场对央行的信任。此外，即便真的加息，沃什也尚未解释，更高的利率将如何缓解当前的通胀压力。他此前曾表示，对于油价等供给冲击，美联储短期内几乎无能为力；同时，他也认为，人工智能带来的生产率提升未来有望帮助压低物价。三、新闻发布会可能比决议更重要无论最终是否加息，市场都将高度关注沃什如何解释这一决定。过去两个月，他不断强调恢复价格稳定，并多次表示，美联储必须为持续偏高的通胀负责。如果最终维持利率不变，市场最关心的问题将是：既然如此强调抗通胀，为何这次没有采取行动？未来又需要哪些条件才会促使美联储加息？相比上次会议，中东局势已经重新恶化，油价风险明显上升。如果美联储选择加息，沃什给出的理由将直接影响市场走势。如果他将加息描述为纠正过去长期未能实现2%通胀目标的第一步，市场可能会认为本轮加息周期才刚刚开始，一些分析人士甚至预计，长期美债收益率可能因此回落，因为投资者会相信美联储终于下定决心控制通胀。但如果沃什强调，这只是针对当前局势的一次性应对措施，那么市场解读将相对温和，对未来政策路径的指引意义也会大打折扣。美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau指出，如果美联储在通胀数据已经明显降温的背景下突然加息，却没有充分解释原因，市场可能会过度解读这一决定，甚至引发新的波动。焦点仍在9月无论本周结果如何，都未必意味着未来政策方向已经确定。真正决定9月是否加息的，仍将是整个夏季公布的通胀数据。美联储官员此前已经给出明确判断：如果未来几个月通胀重新走强，9月加息的可能性将明显上升；如果通胀继续降温，美联储则有理由继续保持耐心，等待更多经济数据验证趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,"ESmain":2,"QQQ":2,"TMV":2,".DJI":2,"TQQQ":2,"TBT":2,"AGG":2,"VGSH":2,"TLT":2,"NQmain":2,"BOXX":2,"SHY":2,"SHV":2,"IEF":2,"SGOV":2,"TLH":2,"TMF":2,".SPX":2,"EDV":2,"UBT":2,"VGIT":2,"VGLT":2,"HYG":2,"SQQQ":2,"TLTW":2,"YMmain":2,"BND":2,"SCHO":2,"GOVT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587711926759992,"gmtCreate":1784515871653,"gmtModify":1784515873295,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"回归正常","listText":"回归正常","text":"回归正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587711926759992","repostId":"1195266647","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195266647","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784514198,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195266647?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 10:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击 | 智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195266647","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX跌超10%，股价跌破200港元","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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10:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">MINIMAX-W</a>跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/471def1433b0397b6c7fd5a45dc166ff\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9d6040a0845516a8f8d6acac45fdcaf","relate_stocks":{"00100":"MINIMAX-W","02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195266647","content_text":"7月20日，智谱跌超11%，股价跌破1000港元大关；MINIMAX-W跌超10%，股价跌破200港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":2.1,"00100":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585758777521272,"gmtCreate":1784038954760,"gmtModify":1784038956492,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 拉胯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 拉胯","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 拉胯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585758777521272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580439775388288,"gmtCreate":1782739097716,"gmtModify":1782739099481,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","listText":"吃饱了撑的吗？","text":"吃饱了撑的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580439775388288","repostId":"1187092008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187092008","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1782737781,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187092008?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-29 20:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187092008","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三星、SK海力士、美光在美遭集体诉讼，涉嫌操纵内存价格</title>\n<style 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left;\">三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技被美国部分消费者起诉，指控其涉嫌合谋操纵内存价格。随着近期“芯片通胀”加剧——包括苹果产品提价——当地消费者和小企业已采取法律行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据美国科技媒体Wccftech及法律刊物LAW360报道，14名个人消费者以及包括个人电脑零售商在内的三家小企业，于本月25日向加利福尼亚州联邦法院提起了诉讼。原告指控，这三家生产全球绝大部分DRAM的企业自2022年起在供应和定价上进行串通，导致过去四年间价格飙升约700%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原告称，这三家公司以向高带宽内存（HBM）转型为由，减少了DRAM的供应。“这些DRAM寡头企业系统性地协调了向HBM的转移，以及DDR3和DDR4的停产。”他们还表示，苹果近期全面上调产品价格是此次诉讼的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这起诉讼目前规模尚小，但如果法院认可原告主张并正式批准为集体诉讼，规模可能进一步扩大。代表原告的反垄断律师事务所Bathaee Dunne正争取将此案定性为集体诉讼，以代表所有购买含DRAM产品的普通消费者和企业。该律所此前曾在一起指控谷歌数字广告串通的案件中胜诉。若原告最终在集体诉讼中胜诉，被告企业将须支付三倍赔偿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三星电子和SK海力士此前在美国曾因合谋行为被定罪，这一点也令人担忧。这两家公司均被认定在21世纪初在美国从事价格操纵，不仅被处以巨额罚款，还导致高管被判入狱。不过，包括投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）在内的业内机构预计，该诉讼至少在今年年底前不会影响内存价格。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","MULL":"2倍做多MU 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在你们创业板IPO第一天，我就知道你们是来圈钱的，今天才被打回原形，还是晚了，这类公司这类人群，应该更早被甄别出来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/569240516617712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":567949781476104,"gmtCreate":1779680821350,"gmtModify":1779681452412,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了","listText":"你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了","text":"你们累不累啊？大家都懒得叼你们这摊烂泥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/567949781476104","repostId":"1152925080","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152925080","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1779679808,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152925080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-25 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152925080","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"仍有条款存在争议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊媒称伊美尚未达成谅解备忘录，鲁比奥则称协议仍可能于周一签署</title>\n<style 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left;\">伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：<strong>仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f19eed0dfe9b6f15725f2f7a21a5852","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152925080","content_text":"伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社今天(5月25日)援引一名知情人士的话称，迄今为止美伊双方尚未达成最终谅解备忘录，仍有条款存在争议。鉴于美国过往谈判中屡次失信，伊朗对美方不抱任何乐观预期，即便达成协议，也会密切监督美方履约情况，一旦美方违背承诺，伊朗将保留全部谈判筹码予以反制。(CCTV国际时讯)另一方面，据半岛电视台报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示：仍有希望与伊朗达成协议。在任何与伊朗达成的协议中，以色列都有权进行自卫。随着谈判的继续，与伊朗的潜在协议最早仍可能于周一签署。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566523486848104,"gmtCreate":1779345724539,"gmtModify":1779345726894,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理华尔街作甚？","listText":"理华尔街作甚？","text":"理华尔街作甚？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566523486848104","repostId":"2637047068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637047068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779344091,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2637047068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 14:14","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637047068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达业绩创下最佳的一次“超预期”，为何华尔街还嫌不“完美”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>英伟达盘后下跌，当"超预期"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，<strong>当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1105007441\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，<strong>这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。</strong>他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场<strong>“knife fight”</strong>。他认为，这<strong>份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1051977213\" style=\"text-align: left;\">数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，<strong>Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。</p><h2 id=\"id_3870000170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。</strong>她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963357280\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，<strong>对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。</strong>据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。</p><h2 id=\"id_1474008724\" style=\"text-align: left;\">更大的考验在长期预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>客户集中度也是风险点。</strong>Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94518631ea8630131b1a8562c1b55bdd","relate_stocks":{"LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344357.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772797","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637047068","content_text":"英伟达盘后下跌，当\"超预期\"成为常态，市场要的不再是另一张漂亮成绩单，而是能重新抬高长期增长曲线的新故事。英伟达又一次交出“超预期业绩加上调指引”的成绩单，但市场反应显示，对全球AI龙头而言，强劲增长已不再自动等于股价上涨。英伟达财年第一季度营收为816亿美元，高于市场预期的790亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后每股收益为1.87美元，高于预期的1.75美元。公司预计7月季度营收为910亿美元，也高于FactSet共识预期的873亿美元。即便如此，英伟达股价周三盘后最终下跌约1%。公司给出的调整后毛利率目标为75%，与最近一个季度持平，没有出现市场担忧的利润率收缩，但仍未能推动股价走高。Direxion产品与策略高级副总裁Ryan Lee写道，“市场要求世界最大公司做到完美。”Direxion资本市场负责人Jake Behan补充称，当预期已经如此之高时，即使一份强劲财报，如果没有实质性抬高长期前景，也可能压制股价。业绩全面高于预期，但“惊喜”不再稀缺英伟达本季度核心指标几乎全面超过华尔街预期。营收同比增速从上一季度的73.2%加快至85%，也高于去年11月季度62%的同比增速。调整后每股收益同样高于市场预期。数据中心仍是最大支柱。财年第一季度数据中心收入为752亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，高于FactSet预期的731亿美元。公司称增长来自Blackwell架构的持续强劲需求。Investing.com分析师Thomas Monteiro认为，这是英伟达最近几个季度中“最干净的一次超预期”，因为业绩不仅跨过了很高的门槛，也回应了市场围绕AI交易的一些更大疑问。他认为，目前没有看到需求放缓的明显迹象。但投资者的反应更谨慎。Jefferies交易台分析师Jeffrey Favuzza将盘后走势称为一场“knife fight”。他认为，这份财报之后，买方对2027年和2028年的盈利预期未必会明显上调。数据中心仍在加速，网络业务成为关键支撑英伟达增长的质量，更多体现在数据中心内部结构上。除GPU需求外，网络业务正在成为更重要的收入来源。公司本季度数据中心网络收入达到148亿美元，创下纪录，同比增长199%，环比增长35%，高于分析师预期的140亿美元。更广义的计算与网络业务收入为756亿美元，同比增长88%，环比增长21%。CFO Colette Kress在电话会上表示，Blackwell架构已经“无处不在”，并被主要超大规模云厂商，云服务商和主要模型开发商采用和部署。她还提到，OpenAI的新GPT-5.5模型依赖Blackwell。这对市场很重要。AI基础设施支出不再只是购买单一芯片，而是转向系统，网络和集群能力。Monteiro称，英伟达正在捕捉AI建设中更大份额的支出，客户不仅购买芯片，也购买连接和扩展这些芯片的系统。华尔街寻找新叙事：CPU，推理和智能体AI英伟达最熟悉的投资叙事是GPU，但华尔街正在要求更多。HSBC的Frank Lee此前写道，GPU动能已经成为“相对不那么有意义”的投资叙事，因为云公司AI资本开支正流向更多领域，包括内存，网络和服务器CPU。英伟达试图给出新的增长路径。随着AI从训练转向推理，并进一步进入智能体AI阶段，CPU的重要性上升。Jensen Huang在电话会上表示，未来可能会出现数十亿个AI智能体，推理硬件需求将随之增加。他称，“思考”发生在GPU上，而编排基本运行在CPU上。Colette Kress表示，Vera CPU为英伟达打开了一个全新的2000亿美元可服务市场。她还称，公司今年对CPU收入已有接近200亿美元的可见度，这将为英伟达成为全球领先CPU供应商奠定基础。英伟达的Vera CPU将与下一代Rubin GPU协同工作。Jensen Huang表示，公司预计销售“数百万个Rubin”，并且每两个Rubin将连接一个Vera。这意味着CPU并非简单替代GPU，而是嵌入英伟达的系统级销售模式。股东回报大幅提高，但仍有人嫌不够英伟达同时试图通过资本回报扩大投资者基础。公司宣布将股票回购计划增加800亿美元，加上此前授权中剩余的385亿美元，回购空间进一步扩大。财年第一季度，英伟达回购金额为193.1亿美元，是上一季度38.2亿美元的四倍多，也较上年同期增长37%。公司还将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，隐含股息率从0.02%升至0.45%。这回应了部分投资者诉求。BofA的Vivek Arya此前写道，英伟达股票已被约78%的主动型基金经理持有，较大的既有持仓可能使未来股价上涨面临挑战；其他大型科技公司曾通过提高现金回报吸引股息和收入型投资者。但回报力度仍未完全满足市场。Jeffrey Favuzza称，对部分投资者而言，800亿美元回购“略低于预期”。据Birinyi Associates截至4月中旬的数据，只有苹果曾宣布过规模更大的回购授权。更大的考验在长期预期这份财报没有显示AI需求放缓，也没有显示毛利率承压，但它没有完全解除华尔街的长期疑虑。Gabelli Funds投资组合经理John Belton此前表示，英伟达是AI资本开支的主要受益者，但未来几年关键问题是这些资本开支是否能产生回报。他称，最新一轮财报后，超大规模云厂商今年AI支出趋势指向约7000亿美元。客户集中度也是风险点。Belton表示，英伟达约一半收入来自少数超大规模客户，而这些客户正在显著消耗自由现金流。投资者将关注英伟达是否能扩大客户基础。英伟达也在调整披露框架。公司将报告结构改为“数据中心”和“边缘计算”两大类，数据中心再细分为超大规模云厂商以及ACIE，即AI云，工业和企业。Founder ETFs投资组合经理Michael Monaghan称，这一变化显示出Jensen Huang眼中的增长方向，主权AI，企业和物理AI已经大到值得单独披露。因此，英伟达的问题不是业绩不强，而是强劲已被充分预期。对华尔街而言，下一步需要看到的不是又一次超预期，而是足以重新抬高长期增长曲线的新证据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDB":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDA":2,"ANV":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565825932980552,"gmtCreate":1779175508973,"gmtModify":1779175943564,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","listText":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","text":"神棍进化为搅屎棍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565825932980552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":565588730515704,"gmtCreate":1779117494384,"gmtModify":1779118323785,"author":{"id":"3514005164997802","authorId":"3514005164997802","name":"momogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3684297724403710f530e832805c95","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514005164997802","idStr":"3514005164997802"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我呸","listText":"我呸","text":"我呸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565588730515704","repostId":"2636040182","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636040182","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779090103,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2636040182?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-18 15:41","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636040182","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的"股价与隐含波动率同步走高"信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为"黄灯"的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，<strong>AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的"股价上涨、波动率同步攀升"并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1e2337b20aeef89405d8a6597f776b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。</p><h2 id=\"1999-2000\">技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，<strong>SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。</strong>他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36f9526614c6a4f937fbc06448114ad\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，"Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。</p><h2 id=\"6c5cb624\">英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。<strong>市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，</strong>当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88218154fef6886fa8c3c0db1a0ef58a\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"630\"/></p><h2 id=\"16b36633\">期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，<strong>看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。</strong>据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd66cc208451fa186e387522427abbf4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。"市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，"SpotGamma在报告中写道，"任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。</p><h2 id=\"72e2cbe0\">市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体"健康"，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的"资金来源"效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的"风险撤出"动作。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达周三财报夜：决定AI牛市命运的一战来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-18 15:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的"股价与隐含波动率同步走高"信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为"黄灯"的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，<strong>AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的"股价上涨、波动率同步攀升"并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1e2337b20aeef89405d8a6597f776b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"623\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。</p><h2 id=\"1999-2000\">技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，<strong>SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。</strong>他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36f9526614c6a4f937fbc06448114ad\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，"Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。</p><h2 id=\"6c5cb624\">英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。<strong>市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，</strong>当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88218154fef6886fa8c3c0db1a0ef58a\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"630\"/></p><h2 id=\"16b36633\">期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，<strong>看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。</strong>据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd66cc208451fa186e387522427abbf4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。"市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，"SpotGamma在报告中写道，"任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。</p><h2 id=\"72e2cbe0\">市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体"健康"，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的"资金来源"效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的"风险撤出"动作。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772508","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2636040182","content_text":"高盛亮起“黄灯”警告：目前半导体板块技术面超买程度创2000年以来之最，且罕见出现股价与波动率同步走高。市场对英伟达7月指引及算力需求的预期极高，期权市场极端看涨与尾部对冲并存。由于美股今年涨势高度集中于少数AI权重股，广度存在隐患，英伟达财报的双向风险已显著放大。英伟达将于美东时间5月20日（周三）盘后发布季报，这是当前AI牛市周期的一次关键压力测试。半导体板块技术面严重超买、期权仓位高度偏向看涨，加之罕见的\"股价与隐含波动率同步走高\"信号，使这一财报窗口的双向风险较以往显著放大。高盛TMT首席专家Peter Callahan周一发布题为\"黄灯\"的简报，指出纳斯达克100指数（NDX）与费城半导体指数（SOX）上周录得本季度首个下跌周；10年期美债收益率升至约4.60%，创一年多来最大单周涨幅；油价回升至约每桶109美元；VIX同步走高。他指出，AI与半导体主题当前面临的核心矛盾是：基本面依然强劲，而技术面压力持续累积。期权分析机构SpotGamma在近期报告中指出，市场正出现罕见的\"股价上涨、波动率同步攀升\"并行格局——通常而言，二者应呈反向关系。这一信号表明，交易者在追涨的同时也在为大幅波动支付保护溢价。英伟达财报的隐含波动幅度目前已达6%，市场注意力高度聚焦于这一时间节点。财报结果及前瞻指引将直接检验市场对AI算力超级周期的预判成色。鉴于英伟达与半导体及更广泛科技板块的高度相关性，其财报表现无论向好还是向坏，均将在市场层面引发广泛联动。技术面发出1999/2000年以来最极端警示本轮半导体涨势的量级与速度已将技术面推至历史性超买水平。高盛数据显示，SOX指数自3月底低点以来已累计上涨约70%，沿途新增市值逾5万亿美元。驱动因素包括地缘政治紧张情绪的阶段性缓解、超预期的企业盈利——例如AMAT上调全年业绩指引幅度超出预期、CSCO产品订单实现同比35%的增长——以及投资者对AI算力需求的信心增强；半导体行业盈利预期年初至今已被上调逾25%。然而，Peter Callahan特别点出，SOX指数目前已高于其200日均线约60%，是自1999/2000年互联网泡沫高峰以来从未出现过的偏离幅度。他还指出，高盛高动量因子组合今年已有12个交易日出现单日±5%以上的波动，占全年交易日近15%；杠杆ETF及期权产品的快速扩张则进一步放大了这种双向弹性。\"在本周财报季（英伟达5月20日）结束、进入夏季交易之前，牢记这些战术动态是值得的，\"Callahan写道。高盛交易台整体对AI与半导体主题仍持中期建设性立场，但在战术层面建议投资者对技术面挑战保持审慎。英伟达财报：前瞻指引或比当季业绩更关键市场对英伟达的基本面前景依然乐观，但近期股价走势已在一定程度上透支了部分预期。据高盛英伟达财报前瞻报告，分析师普遍预计英伟达本季度收入将超出市场预测约20亿美元——该公司历史上的超预期幅度通常在2%至3%之间。市场更关注的是对下一季度的前瞻指引，当前分析师一致预期约为860亿美元，环比增幅约9%。其他聚焦方向包括：英伟达约1万亿美元的数据中心累计收入指引能否存在进一步上行空间，以及Agentic AI推理需求加速的叙事——尤其是其预计于2026年下半年开始发货的纯CPU机架产品。从近期价格走势来看，英伟达已连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达20%，是近两年来最长连涨周期；自3月底低点以来累计新增市值约1.7万亿美元。然而，高盛数据同时显示，英伟达过去5次财报公布后的次个交易日（T+1），有4次出现下跌，自2022年5月以来，财报触发的大幅单日上涨实际上从未出现过。期权市场：极端看涨押注与尾部对冲同步就位期权仓位结构呈现出一组内在矛盾的信号。据SpotGamma数据，整体持仓方向依然极度偏向看涨，交易者持续将英伟达看涨期权向更高行权价滚动，看涨期权偏斜（call skew）维持在90日历史区间高端，而下行保护需求极为有限。据22V Research援引数据，上周五标普500看涨期权名义成交额创下2.6万亿美元的历史纪录，看涨期权占全部期权成交量的比例高达60%；费城半导体指数RSI亦升至2000年3月以来的高位。与此同时，针对下行风险的对冲布局也在悄然展开。SpotGamma指出，围绕标普500（SPY）、半导体ETF（SMH）及DRAM相关资产的大额看跌期权结构及买入行为明显增加，且集中于深度虚值行权价区间，显示其功能更接近尾部风险对冲，而非单纯的方向性押注。\"市场参与者并非看空英伟达，但对下行情景的准备并非微不足道，\"SpotGamma在报告中写道，\"任何方向性的转变几乎都将迅速波及更广泛的市场。\"SpotGamma补充指出，英伟达自3月低点已累计上涨逾35%，当前看涨期权仓位的规模意味着，一旦财报令市场失望或引发大规模获利了结，有可能触发显著的方向性逆转。市场广度隐患：涨势正被少数股票支撑在半导体与大型科技股的强势表现之下，美股整体参与度的匮乏正在形成结构性隐忧。Peter Callahan在报告中指出，尽管标普500年初至今上涨约8%，但仅约52%的成分股录得正收益。年内明显落后的领域涵盖住宅地产、医疗器械、无政府业务敞口的工程建筑、联邦IT服务、软件与服务、独立发电商、餐饮连锁、商业地产经纪及保险经纪等多个板块。Callahan坦言，审视这些板块的走势图时，令他质疑当前市场的表现究竟体现的是整体\"健康\"，还是不过是投资者被迫将资金集中于少数大市值AI股票的\"资金来源\"效应。Oppenheimer股票衍生品团队同样指出，过去一个月内标普500成分股中仅约五分之一跑赢指数，离散度指数升至逾一年来的最高水平，而隐含相关性则接近年初至今的低点。高盛机构经纪部门（PB）最新数据亦显示，科技板块近期已出现明显的\"风险撤出\"动作。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIPS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDU":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}