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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
10-27
搞出小霸王的人 叫人不作恶 看看80后近视率 再做岳不群吧
段永平称偏好谷歌“不作恶”
10月26日，价值投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，他很喜欢谷歌的“不作恶”，认为比“做个好人”更容易理解。 上述表态源于一名网友就行事准则向其请教。该网友回忆，入社会时被家人教育“做个好人、要善良”，在
段永平称偏好谷歌“不作恶”
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
10-10
看新闻炒股 底裤都亏没了
英伟达悄然重新定义自由现金流，千亿回购计划暗藏水分？
英伟达将对OpenAI、Anthropic等242家企业的股权投资列为"战略用途"，从自由现金流中扣除。经此调整，上半财年自由现金流从官方口径699亿美元骤降至217亿美元，缩水近七成。与此同时，公司新增249亿美元长期债务以支撑回购，2350亿美元回购计划的可持续性存疑。
英伟达悄然重新定义自由现金流，千亿回购计划暗藏水分？
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
06-17
3000亿是伊朗半官方媒体透露的消息 作为一个财经媒体引用如此不严谨的信息源 太不应该了
美伊协议核心条款曝光：伊朗石油出口即刻解禁，核项目维持现状，海峡快速重启仍存变数
美伊将于6月19日在瑞士签署14点谅解备忘录，协议签署后立即解除伊朗原油出口制裁，在达成最终协议前，双方同意伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态。美国总统特朗普在法国七国集团峰会上公开表态，称该协议已成定局，将有效阻止伊朗发展核武器。协议中最引人注目的条款及对市场最直接的影响是，美国将立即允许伊朗出口原油。
美伊协议核心条款曝光：伊朗石油出口即刻解禁，核项目维持现状，海峡快速重启仍存变数
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
01-23
放屁
全球掀起“抛售美国”大潮，默契选择两大主题：亚洲科技股与黄金
人们正在寻求分散投资。
全球掀起“抛售美国”大潮，默契选择两大主题：亚洲科技股与黄金
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
2025-12-18
垃圾简体中文文章
SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配
问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。
SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
2024-10-18
屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多
特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！
分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。
特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
2023-01-30
中国哪家公司能降价？
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
2023-01-14
特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分
Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>
SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c
Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>
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他哥_8297
他哥_8297
·
2023-01-11
因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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23:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月26日，价值投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，他很喜欢谷歌的“不作恶”，认为比“做个好人”更容易理解。</p>\n<p>上述表态源于一名网友就行事准则向其请教。该网友回忆，入社会时被家人教育“做个好人、要善良”，在追求更高利润时常感到不适；随着时间推移这种不适减弱，直到近日听到师傅对入世徒弟的忠告“不作恶”，顿感“把行为准则拉宽了”，并询问按此准则行事是否合适，同时担心该准则或略显宽泛。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xueqiu.com/1247347556/413796617","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2678319732","content_text":"10月26日，价值投资人段永平在社交平台发文称，他很喜欢谷歌的“不作恶”，认为比“做个好人”更容易理解。\n上述表态源于一名网友就行事准则向其请教。该网友回忆，入社会时被家人教育“做个好人、要善良”，在追求更高利润时常感到不适；随着时间推移这种不适减弱，直到近日听到师傅对入世徒弟的忠告“不作恶”，顿感“把行为准则拉宽了”，并询问按此准则行事是否合适，同时担心该准则或略显宽泛。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LTL":1,"SNPE":1,"VOX":1,"XDAT":1,"GOOGL":1,"GOOY":1,"GXPC":1,"CQTM":1,"GOOP":1,"CNEQ":1,"GGLS":1,"GOOL":1,"EFIV":1,"GOU":1,"ILDR":1,"JGRO":1,"GOOG":1,"METV":1,"TRUC":1,"SGOOGmain":1,"GGLL":1,"GOOW":1,"SKYY":1,"XLC":1,"FCOM":1,"GOGL":1,"CMAG":1,"OGIG":1,"GOOX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616784687383304,"gmtCreate":1791601402090,"gmtModify":1791601404234,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看新闻炒股 底裤都亏没了","listText":"看新闻炒股 底裤都亏没了","text":"看新闻炒股 底裤都亏没了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616784687383304","repostId":"2674002860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2674002860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1791594609,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2674002860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-10 09:10","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"英伟达悄然重新定义自由现金流，千亿回购计划暗藏水分？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2674002860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达将对OpenAI、Anthropic等242家企业的股权投资列为\"战略用途\"，从自由现金流中扣除。经此调整，上半财年自由现金流从官方口径699亿美元骤降至217亿美元，缩水近七成。与此同时，公司新增249亿美元长期债务以支撑回购，2350亿美元回购计划的可持续性存疑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>英伟达一个措辞上的细微变化，正在重塑投资者对这家芯片巨头财务健康状况的理解。</p>\n<p>今年9月28日，英伟达宣布将股票回购授权规模扩大1500亿美元至2350亿美元，并在公告中悄然嵌入一句关键表述——<strong>"我们将以净超出战略用途的自由现金流（excess free cash flow net of strategic uses）形式回馈股东"</strong>。据《华尔街日报》报道，这句话实质上是在向投资者发出信号：<strong>英伟达对外的股权投资，同样会压缩可用于回购和分红的现金。</strong>这一表述几乎未引发市场关注，但其背后的财务逻辑影响深远。</p>\n<p><strong>若将英伟达的战略股权投资及股权激励相关现金支出纳入计算，其今年上半财年的实际自由现金流将从官方口径的699亿美元骤降至约217亿美元——缩水近七成。</strong>与此同时，英伟达在同期斥资约310亿美元用于超出维持股本不变所需的额外回购，并新增长期债务249亿美元至324亿美元，部分依赖举债来支撑回购力度。这一组合引发外界对其回购可持续性的质疑。</p>\n<h2>“净战略用途”：一句话改变回购逻辑</h2>\n<p>英伟达此次措辞调整的核心，在于将战略股权投资纳入自由现金流的扣减范畴。</p>\n<p>传统意义上，自由现金流通常以经营活动现金流减去资本支出（capex）计算，被视为企业在维持运营后可自由支配的现金代理指标。然而，英伟达的资本支出形态已不局限于厂房设备，还延伸至对AI生态系统内企业的股权投资。</p>\n<p>英伟达披露，截至目前，公司持有13家上市公司及229家私营公司的股权，涵盖数据中心建设、AI模型开发、能源供应及硬件制造等领域，其中包括OpenAI和Anthropic等知名AI企业。<strong>英伟达将上述投资定性为“战略性”而非“可选择性”，认为这些投资有助于加速其计算平台及整体AI市场的发展。</strong></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，这些被投企业同时也是英伟达芯片的买家，形成一种循环动态——英伟达向其注资，被投企业再用这些资金购买英伟达产品。这一循环结构已引发市场对AI繁荣可持续性的担忧。</p>\n<h2>数字背后：自由现金流被高估多少？</h2>\n<p><strong>英伟达并未正式修改自由现金流的定义，官方仍沿用传统公式。但实际数字的差距触目惊心。</strong></p>\n<p>据《华尔街日报》分析，在截至今年7月26日的上半财年内：</p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>英伟达用于购买股权投资的现金流出为<strong>424亿美元</strong>，出售所得为72亿美元，<strong>净流出达352亿美元</strong>；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>若将上述净流出视同资本支出处理，英伟达自由现金流将从<strong>699亿美元减半至347亿美元</strong>；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>此外，员工股权激励相关的现金支出同样未被纳入传统自由现金流计算。同期，英伟达为员工股票归属支付的现金预扣税款达<strong>45亿美元</strong>，另有约<strong>90亿美元</strong>的回购用于对冲股权激励带来的股本稀释；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>扣除员工股权激励相关现金支出后，再叠加股权投资净流出，<strong>英伟达上半财年的调整后自由现金流约为217亿美元</strong>，较官方口径缩水约69%。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>与此同时，英伟达在同期新增长期债务249亿美元，这在一定程度上解释了公司如何在战略投资和股权激励吸收大量现金的情况下，仍维持了可观的额外回购规模。</p>\n<h2>2350亿回购授权：华尔街预期能否兑现？</h2>\n<p>英伟达2350亿美元的回购授权规模庞大，兑现需要持续强劲的现金流支撑。</p>\n<p>据Visible Alpha汇编的华尔街分析师预测数据，英伟达在2028财年（截至2028年1月）的自由现金流均值预期超过<strong>3300亿美元</strong>，理论上足以覆盖全部回购授权及分红支出。</p>\n<p>然而，英伟达自身已通过措辞调整暗示，<strong>未来仍需持续向被投企业注入大量资金。</strong>若战略股权投资规模维持高位，调整后的实际可分配现金流将远低于传统口径下的预测数字，回购计划的实际执行空间也将相应收窄。</p>\n<h2>信息披露：英伟达领先同行，但仍不够</h2>\n<p>在信息透明度方面，英伟达已率先做出改进。</p>\n<p>英伟达上季度调整了现金流量表的列报方式，<strong>将债务类证券与股权类证券在投资活动项下完全分开披露</strong>（其持有的债务证券均为美国国债或机构债券），使投资者得以自行进行上述调整。</p>\n<p>相比之下，微软、亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet均将债务投资与股权投资合并列报，令投资者难以进行同类拆分。《华尔街日报》认为，其他公司应效仿英伟达的做法。</p>\n<p>但即便如此，英伟达的披露改进仍只是起点。<strong>自由现金流的真实面貌远比表面复杂，投资者需要现金流量表提供更高程度的透明度，才能准确评估这家AI时代最重要芯片公司的真实财务状况与回购能力。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达悄然重新定义自由现金流，千亿回购计划暗藏水分？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达悄然重新定义自由现金流，千亿回购计划暗藏水分？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-10 09:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>英伟达一个措辞上的细微变化，正在重塑投资者对这家芯片巨头财务健康状况的理解。</p>\n<p>今年9月28日，英伟达宣布将股票回购授权规模扩大1500亿美元至2350亿美元，并在公告中悄然嵌入一句关键表述——<strong>"我们将以净超出战略用途的自由现金流（excess free cash flow net of strategic uses）形式回馈股东"</strong>。据《华尔街日报》报道，这句话实质上是在向投资者发出信号：<strong>英伟达对外的股权投资，同样会压缩可用于回购和分红的现金。</strong>这一表述几乎未引发市场关注，但其背后的财务逻辑影响深远。</p>\n<p><strong>若将英伟达的战略股权投资及股权激励相关现金支出纳入计算，其今年上半财年的实际自由现金流将从官方口径的699亿美元骤降至约217亿美元——缩水近七成。</strong>与此同时，英伟达在同期斥资约310亿美元用于超出维持股本不变所需的额外回购，并新增长期债务249亿美元至324亿美元，部分依赖举债来支撑回购力度。这一组合引发外界对其回购可持续性的质疑。</p>\n<h2>“净战略用途”：一句话改变回购逻辑</h2>\n<p>英伟达此次措辞调整的核心，在于将战略股权投资纳入自由现金流的扣减范畴。</p>\n<p>传统意义上，自由现金流通常以经营活动现金流减去资本支出（capex）计算，被视为企业在维持运营后可自由支配的现金代理指标。然而，英伟达的资本支出形态已不局限于厂房设备，还延伸至对AI生态系统内企业的股权投资。</p>\n<p>英伟达披露，截至目前，公司持有13家上市公司及229家私营公司的股权，涵盖数据中心建设、AI模型开发、能源供应及硬件制造等领域，其中包括OpenAI和Anthropic等知名AI企业。<strong>英伟达将上述投资定性为“战略性”而非“可选择性”，认为这些投资有助于加速其计算平台及整体AI市场的发展。</strong></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，这些被投企业同时也是英伟达芯片的买家，形成一种循环动态——英伟达向其注资，被投企业再用这些资金购买英伟达产品。这一循环结构已引发市场对AI繁荣可持续性的担忧。</p>\n<h2>数字背后：自由现金流被高估多少？</h2>\n<p><strong>英伟达并未正式修改自由现金流的定义，官方仍沿用传统公式。但实际数字的差距触目惊心。</strong></p>\n<p>据《华尔街日报》分析，在截至今年7月26日的上半财年内：</p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>英伟达用于购买股权投资的现金流出为<strong>424亿美元</strong>，出售所得为72亿美元，<strong>净流出达352亿美元</strong>；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>若将上述净流出视同资本支出处理，英伟达自由现金流将从<strong>699亿美元减半至347亿美元</strong>；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>此外，员工股权激励相关的现金支出同样未被纳入传统自由现金流计算。同期，英伟达为员工股票归属支付的现金预扣税款达<strong>45亿美元</strong>，另有约<strong>90亿美元</strong>的回购用于对冲股权激励带来的股本稀释；</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p>扣除员工股权激励相关现金支出后，再叠加股权投资净流出，<strong>英伟达上半财年的调整后自由现金流约为217亿美元</strong>，较官方口径缩水约69%。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>与此同时，英伟达在同期新增长期债务249亿美元，这在一定程度上解释了公司如何在战略投资和股权激励吸收大量现金的情况下，仍维持了可观的额外回购规模。</p>\n<h2>2350亿回购授权：华尔街预期能否兑现？</h2>\n<p>英伟达2350亿美元的回购授权规模庞大，兑现需要持续强劲的现金流支撑。</p>\n<p>据Visible Alpha汇编的华尔街分析师预测数据，英伟达在2028财年（截至2028年1月）的自由现金流均值预期超过<strong>3300亿美元</strong>，理论上足以覆盖全部回购授权及分红支出。</p>\n<p>然而，英伟达自身已通过措辞调整暗示，<strong>未来仍需持续向被投企业注入大量资金。</strong>若战略股权投资规模维持高位，调整后的实际可分配现金流将远低于传统口径下的预测数字，回购计划的实际执行空间也将相应收窄。</p>\n<h2>信息披露：英伟达领先同行，但仍不够</h2>\n<p>在信息透明度方面，英伟达已率先做出改进。</p>\n<p>英伟达上季度调整了现金流量表的列报方式，<strong>将债务类证券与股权类证券在投资活动项下完全分开披露</strong>（其持有的债务证券均为美国国债或机构债券），使投资者得以自行进行上述调整。</p>\n<p>相比之下，微软、亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet均将债务投资与股权投资合并列报，令投资者难以进行同类拆分。《华尔街日报》认为，其他公司应效仿英伟达的做法。</p>\n<p>但即便如此，英伟达的披露改进仍只是起点。<strong>自由现金流的真实面貌远比表面复杂，投资者需要现金流量表提供更高程度的透明度，才能准确评估这家AI时代最重要芯片公司的真实财务状况与回购能力。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3783308","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2674002860","content_text":"英伟达一个措辞上的细微变化，正在重塑投资者对这家芯片巨头财务健康状况的理解。\n今年9月28日，英伟达宣布将股票回购授权规模扩大1500亿美元至2350亿美元，并在公告中悄然嵌入一句关键表述——\"我们将以净超出战略用途的自由现金流（excess free cash flow net of strategic uses）形式回馈股东\"。据《华尔街日报》报道，这句话实质上是在向投资者发出信号：英伟达对外的股权投资，同样会压缩可用于回购和分红的现金。这一表述几乎未引发市场关注，但其背后的财务逻辑影响深远。\n若将英伟达的战略股权投资及股权激励相关现金支出纳入计算，其今年上半财年的实际自由现金流将从官方口径的699亿美元骤降至约217亿美元——缩水近七成。与此同时，英伟达在同期斥资约310亿美元用于超出维持股本不变所需的额外回购，并新增长期债务249亿美元至324亿美元，部分依赖举债来支撑回购力度。这一组合引发外界对其回购可持续性的质疑。\n“净战略用途”：一句话改变回购逻辑\n英伟达此次措辞调整的核心，在于将战略股权投资纳入自由现金流的扣减范畴。\n传统意义上，自由现金流通常以经营活动现金流减去资本支出（capex）计算，被视为企业在维持运营后可自由支配的现金代理指标。然而，英伟达的资本支出形态已不局限于厂房设备，还延伸至对AI生态系统内企业的股权投资。\n英伟达披露，截至目前，公司持有13家上市公司及229家私营公司的股权，涵盖数据中心建设、AI模型开发、能源供应及硬件制造等领域，其中包括OpenAI和Anthropic等知名AI企业。英伟达将上述投资定性为“战略性”而非“可选择性”，认为这些投资有助于加速其计算平台及整体AI市场的发展。\n值得注意的是，这些被投企业同时也是英伟达芯片的买家，形成一种循环动态——英伟达向其注资，被投企业再用这些资金购买英伟达产品。这一循环结构已引发市场对AI繁荣可持续性的担忧。\n数字背后：自由现金流被高估多少？\n英伟达并未正式修改自由现金流的定义，官方仍沿用传统公式。但实际数字的差距触目惊心。\n据《华尔街日报》分析，在截至今年7月26日的上半财年内：\n\n\n英伟达用于购买股权投资的现金流出为424亿美元，出售所得为72亿美元，净流出达352亿美元；\n\n\n若将上述净流出视同资本支出处理，英伟达自由现金流将从699亿美元减半至347亿美元；\n\n\n此外，员工股权激励相关的现金支出同样未被纳入传统自由现金流计算。同期，英伟达为员工股票归属支付的现金预扣税款达45亿美元，另有约90亿美元的回购用于对冲股权激励带来的股本稀释；\n\n\n扣除员工股权激励相关现金支出后，再叠加股权投资净流出，英伟达上半财年的调整后自由现金流约为217亿美元，较官方口径缩水约69%。\n\n\n与此同时，英伟达在同期新增长期债务249亿美元，这在一定程度上解释了公司如何在战略投资和股权激励吸收大量现金的情况下，仍维持了可观的额外回购规模。\n2350亿回购授权：华尔街预期能否兑现？\n英伟达2350亿美元的回购授权规模庞大，兑现需要持续强劲的现金流支撑。\n据Visible Alpha汇编的华尔街分析师预测数据，英伟达在2028财年（截至2028年1月）的自由现金流均值预期超过3300亿美元，理论上足以覆盖全部回购授权及分红支出。\n然而，英伟达自身已通过措辞调整暗示，未来仍需持续向被投企业注入大量资金。若战略股权投资规模维持高位，调整后的实际可分配现金流将远低于传统口径下的预测数字，回购计划的实际执行空间也将相应收窄。\n信息披露：英伟达领先同行，但仍不够\n在信息透明度方面，英伟达已率先做出改进。\n英伟达上季度调整了现金流量表的列报方式，将债务类证券与股权类证券在投资活动项下完全分开披露（其持有的债务证券均为美国国债或机构债券），使投资者得以自行进行上述调整。\n相比之下，微软、亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet均将债务投资与股权投资合并列报，令投资者难以进行同类拆分。《华尔街日报》认为，其他公司应效仿英伟达的做法。\n但即便如此，英伟达的披露改进仍只是起点。自由现金流的真实面貌远比表面复杂，投资者需要现金流量表提供更高程度的透明度，才能准确评估这家AI时代最重要芯片公司的真实财务状况与回购能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVYY":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"USD":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"METV":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"NVC":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"09388":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"09788":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"NVDA":1.97,"IXN":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"VT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576077286396120,"gmtCreate":1781657852747,"gmtModify":1781659889607,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"3000亿是伊朗半官方媒体透露的消息 作为一个财经媒体引用如此不严谨的信息源 太不应该了","listText":"3000亿是伊朗半官方媒体透露的消息 作为一个财经媒体引用如此不严谨的信息源 太不应该了","text":"3000亿是伊朗半官方媒体透露的消息 作为一个财经媒体引用如此不严谨的信息源 太不应该了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576077286396120","repostId":"1118515923","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118515923","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781657592,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118515923?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-17 08:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美伊协议核心条款曝光：伊朗石油出口即刻解禁，核项目维持现状，海峡快速重启仍存变数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118515923","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美伊将于6月19日在瑞士签署14点谅解备忘录，协议签署后立即解除伊朗原油出口制裁，在达成最终协议前，双方同意伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态。美国总统特朗普在法国七国集团峰会上公开表态，称该协议已成定局，将有效阻止伊朗发展核武器。协议中最引人注目的条款及对市场最直接的影响是，美国将立即允许伊朗出口原油。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊将于6月19日在瑞士签署14点谅解备忘录，协议签署后立即解除伊朗原油出口制裁，在达成最终协议前，双方同意伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态。美国承诺为伊朗经济重建提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，但霍尔木兹海峡通航规则分歧犹存。60天谈判窗口内，核协议能否落地仍悬而未决。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国与伊朗即将正式签署一项包含14点要点的谅解备忘录，以期永久结束双方冲突，该临时和平协议将立即解除对伊朗石油出口的封锁，并为未来60天的最终核协议谈判铺平道路。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据媒体报道，美伊预计将于6月19日在瑞士正式签署谅解备忘录。美国副总统JD Vance与伊朗议会议长Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf将率团出席签署仪式。美国总统特朗普在法国七国集团峰会上公开表态，称该协议已成定局，将有效阻止伊朗发展核武器。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">协议中最引人注目的条款及对市场最直接的影响是，美国将立即允许伊朗出口原油。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》16日报道，<strong>在美国与伊朗本周签署谅解备忘录后，伊朗即可对外销售其石油和燃料。</strong>报道援引匿名知情人士的话说，针对银行、运输和保险等伊朗石油出口相关行业的制裁也将同时获得豁免。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在核问题上，据媒体报道，伊朗在草案中重申永远不会制造核武器。<strong>在达成最终协议前，双方同意维持现状：即伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态，</strong>而美国不在该地区增兵或实施新制裁。草案指出，浓缩核材料的命运以及包括伊朗核需求在内的其他相关问题，将在最终协议中得到妥善解决。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管和平协议带来重大利好，但市场对供应链的全面恢复仍持谨慎态度。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，<strong>霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放时间及通航条件依然存在分歧，而草案中提及的3000亿美元重建资金及超千亿美元冻结资产的释放细节，仍需在未来的多边博弈中进一步落实与验证。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_778896580\">立即豁免原油出口，提振市场供应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》报道，备忘录签署后，美国财政部将立即豁免对伊朗原油、石化产品及其衍生品的出口制裁，并涵盖银行、保险和运输等相关配套服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这一举措旨在为伊朗提供结束冲突的早期财政激励。</strong>非营利组织“反对核伊朗”及船舶追踪数据显示，载有原油的伊朗超级油轮Diona号已离开恰巴哈尔港，穿过美国封锁区驶离阿曼湾，这是自4月美国实施封锁以来的首次过境。随后，第二艘超级油轮Hero II也完成了穿越。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Farzin Nadimi指出，允许伊朗出口石油是白宫为促使伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡而放弃的关键筹码。以色列国家安全研究所的Sima Shine则认为，相比于伊朗可能恢复的石油走私活动，将其合法化不仅提供了切实的经济激励，更有助于直接降低全球能源价格。</p><h2 id=\"id_2222264525\">3000亿美元重建基金与解冻资产争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体获取的草案显示，美国承诺与其地区合作伙伴共同制定一项全面计划，<strong>为伊朗的经济重建与发展提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，实施机制将在60天内制定。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。<strong>特朗普明确表示美国不会出资，并要求伊朗必须先“证明自己”。美国高级官员透露，华盛顿将寻求其他国家和私营部门提供投资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，备忘录要求释放伊朗被限制的资金。据央视新闻报道，伊朗央行行长Abdolnaser Hemmati强调，备忘录明确规定了美国解冻资产的义务，这些属于伊朗央行的资金将根据国家经济需求和外汇优先事项进行分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据悉，伊朗拥有约1000亿美元的受限资产，相比于可随时撤销的制裁豁免，资产所有权的转移将为伊朗带来更为持久的经济利益。</p><h2 id=\"id_4012745266\">海峡开放进程及通航规则面临考验</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在海上交通方面，美国将在备忘录签署后立即解除封锁，不干涉伊朗的航运，并在最多30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态。同时，伊朗确保波斯湾至阿曼湾的双向商船通行在30天内恢复至战前水平。美国还承诺在最终协议达成后的30天内从周边地区撤军。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管特朗普承诺海峡将在本周五前开放，但欧洲多国政府、能源投资者和航运公司对此持高度怀疑态度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了水雷清除存在的实质性安全风险外，海峡的长期通航规则也引发严重分歧。伊朗方面暗示，在60天的谈判期结束后，将向过往船只收取导航费。特朗普则对阿联酋领导人表示，海峡将“永久”免费开放。美国高级官员承认，60天后的海峡通航地位仍将是后续谈判的重要议题。</p><h2 id=\"id_3314505032\">60天谈判窗口与地缘政治风险隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">备忘录的签署仅是长期和平进程的第一步。双方同意在最终协议达成前维持现状：伊朗重申永远不会生产核武器并保持核项目现状，美国则承诺不施加新制裁或在地区增兵。此外，协议要求包括黎巴嫩在内的“所有战线”实现立即且永久的停火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>然而，地区局势与双边互信依然脆弱。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf在与黎巴嫩官员的通话中要求以色列撤出被占领土，而以色列政界则呼吁继续打击真主党，这为协议的全面推进埋下隐患。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JD Vance强调协议将建立在严格的核查系统之上，白宫也警告称若伊朗违约将毫不犹豫地恢复军事打击。未来60天，双方能否在多重分歧中达成需联合国安理会约束性决议批准的最终协议，仍充满高度不确定性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美伊协议核心条款曝光：伊朗石油出口即刻解禁，核项目维持现状，海峡快速重启仍存变数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-17 08:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊将于6月19日在瑞士签署14点谅解备忘录，协议签署后立即解除伊朗原油出口制裁，在达成最终协议前，双方同意伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态。美国承诺为伊朗经济重建提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，但霍尔木兹海峡通航规则分歧犹存。60天谈判窗口内，核协议能否落地仍悬而未决。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国与伊朗即将正式签署一项包含14点要点的谅解备忘录，以期永久结束双方冲突，该临时和平协议将立即解除对伊朗石油出口的封锁，并为未来60天的最终核协议谈判铺平道路。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据媒体报道，美伊预计将于6月19日在瑞士正式签署谅解备忘录。美国副总统JD Vance与伊朗议会议长Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf将率团出席签署仪式。美国总统特朗普在法国七国集团峰会上公开表态，称该协议已成定局，将有效阻止伊朗发展核武器。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">协议中最引人注目的条款及对市场最直接的影响是，美国将立即允许伊朗出口原油。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》16日报道，<strong>在美国与伊朗本周签署谅解备忘录后，伊朗即可对外销售其石油和燃料。</strong>报道援引匿名知情人士的话说，针对银行、运输和保险等伊朗石油出口相关行业的制裁也将同时获得豁免。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在核问题上，据媒体报道，伊朗在草案中重申永远不会制造核武器。<strong>在达成最终协议前，双方同意维持现状：即伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态，</strong>而美国不在该地区增兵或实施新制裁。草案指出，浓缩核材料的命运以及包括伊朗核需求在内的其他相关问题，将在最终协议中得到妥善解决。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管和平协议带来重大利好，但市场对供应链的全面恢复仍持谨慎态度。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，<strong>霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放时间及通航条件依然存在分歧，而草案中提及的3000亿美元重建资金及超千亿美元冻结资产的释放细节，仍需在未来的多边博弈中进一步落实与验证。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_778896580\">立即豁免原油出口，提振市场供应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》报道，备忘录签署后，美国财政部将立即豁免对伊朗原油、石化产品及其衍生品的出口制裁，并涵盖银行、保险和运输等相关配套服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这一举措旨在为伊朗提供结束冲突的早期财政激励。</strong>非营利组织“反对核伊朗”及船舶追踪数据显示，载有原油的伊朗超级油轮Diona号已离开恰巴哈尔港，穿过美国封锁区驶离阿曼湾，这是自4月美国实施封锁以来的首次过境。随后，第二艘超级油轮Hero II也完成了穿越。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Farzin Nadimi指出，允许伊朗出口石油是白宫为促使伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡而放弃的关键筹码。以色列国家安全研究所的Sima Shine则认为，相比于伊朗可能恢复的石油走私活动，将其合法化不仅提供了切实的经济激励，更有助于直接降低全球能源价格。</p><h2 id=\"id_2222264525\">3000亿美元重建基金与解冻资产争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体获取的草案显示，美国承诺与其地区合作伙伴共同制定一项全面计划，<strong>为伊朗的经济重建与发展提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，实施机制将在60天内制定。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。<strong>特朗普明确表示美国不会出资，并要求伊朗必须先“证明自己”。美国高级官员透露，华盛顿将寻求其他国家和私营部门提供投资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，备忘录要求释放伊朗被限制的资金。据央视新闻报道，伊朗央行行长Abdolnaser Hemmati强调，备忘录明确规定了美国解冻资产的义务，这些属于伊朗央行的资金将根据国家经济需求和外汇优先事项进行分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据悉，伊朗拥有约1000亿美元的受限资产，相比于可随时撤销的制裁豁免，资产所有权的转移将为伊朗带来更为持久的经济利益。</p><h2 id=\"id_4012745266\">海峡开放进程及通航规则面临考验</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在海上交通方面，美国将在备忘录签署后立即解除封锁，不干涉伊朗的航运，并在最多30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态。同时，伊朗确保波斯湾至阿曼湾的双向商船通行在30天内恢复至战前水平。美国还承诺在最终协议达成后的30天内从周边地区撤军。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管特朗普承诺海峡将在本周五前开放，但欧洲多国政府、能源投资者和航运公司对此持高度怀疑态度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了水雷清除存在的实质性安全风险外，海峡的长期通航规则也引发严重分歧。伊朗方面暗示，在60天的谈判期结束后，将向过往船只收取导航费。特朗普则对阿联酋领导人表示，海峡将“永久”免费开放。美国高级官员承认，60天后的海峡通航地位仍将是后续谈判的重要议题。</p><h2 id=\"id_3314505032\">60天谈判窗口与地缘政治风险隐患</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">备忘录的签署仅是长期和平进程的第一步。双方同意在最终协议达成前维持现状：伊朗重申永远不会生产核武器并保持核项目现状，美国则承诺不施加新制裁或在地区增兵。此外，协议要求包括黎巴嫩在内的“所有战线”实现立即且永久的停火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>然而，地区局势与双边互信依然脆弱。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf在与黎巴嫩官员的通话中要求以色列撤出被占领土，而以色列政界则呼吁继续打击真主党，这为协议的全面推进埋下隐患。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JD Vance强调协议将建立在严格的核查系统之上，白宫也警告称若伊朗违约将毫不犹豫地恢复军事打击。未来60天，双方能否在多重分歧中达成需联合国安理会约束性决议批准的最终协议，仍充满高度不确定性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9693162a6637965a02f6a988f059f3bd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118515923","content_text":"美伊将于6月19日在瑞士签署14点谅解备忘录，协议签署后立即解除伊朗原油出口制裁，在达成最终协议前，双方同意伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态。美国承诺为伊朗经济重建提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，但霍尔木兹海峡通航规则分歧犹存。60天谈判窗口内，核协议能否落地仍悬而未决。美国与伊朗即将正式签署一项包含14点要点的谅解备忘录，以期永久结束双方冲突，该临时和平协议将立即解除对伊朗石油出口的封锁，并为未来60天的最终核协议谈判铺平道路。据媒体报道，美伊预计将于6月19日在瑞士正式签署谅解备忘录。美国副总统JD Vance与伊朗议会议长Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf将率团出席签署仪式。美国总统特朗普在法国七国集团峰会上公开表态，称该协议已成定局，将有效阻止伊朗发展核武器。协议中最引人注目的条款及对市场最直接的影响是，美国将立即允许伊朗出口原油。据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》16日报道，在美国与伊朗本周签署谅解备忘录后，伊朗即可对外销售其石油和燃料。报道援引匿名知情人士的话说，针对银行、运输和保险等伊朗石油出口相关行业的制裁也将同时获得豁免。在核问题上，据媒体报道，伊朗在草案中重申永远不会制造核武器。在达成最终协议前，双方同意维持现状：即伊朗保持其核项目的现有状态，而美国不在该地区增兵或实施新制裁。草案指出，浓缩核材料的命运以及包括伊朗核需求在内的其他相关问题，将在最终协议中得到妥善解决。 尽管和平协议带来重大利好，但市场对供应链的全面恢复仍持谨慎态度。双方同意在30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态，霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放时间及通航条件依然存在分歧，而草案中提及的3000亿美元重建资金及超千亿美元冻结资产的释放细节，仍需在未来的多边博弈中进一步落实与验证。立即豁免原油出口，提振市场供应据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》报道，备忘录签署后，美国财政部将立即豁免对伊朗原油、石化产品及其衍生品的出口制裁，并涵盖银行、保险和运输等相关配套服务。这一举措旨在为伊朗提供结束冲突的早期财政激励。非营利组织“反对核伊朗”及船舶追踪数据显示，载有原油的伊朗超级油轮Diona号已离开恰巴哈尔港，穿过美国封锁区驶离阿曼湾，这是自4月美国实施封锁以来的首次过境。随后，第二艘超级油轮Hero II也完成了穿越。华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员Farzin Nadimi指出，允许伊朗出口石油是白宫为促使伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡而放弃的关键筹码。以色列国家安全研究所的Sima Shine则认为，相比于伊朗可能恢复的石油走私活动，将其合法化不仅提供了切实的经济激励，更有助于直接降低全球能源价格。3000亿美元重建基金与解冻资产争议媒体获取的草案显示，美国承诺与其地区合作伙伴共同制定一项全面计划，为伊朗的经济重建与发展提供至少3000亿美元的融资保障，实施机制将在60天内制定。然而，资金来源成为各方博弈的焦点。特朗普明确表示美国不会出资，并要求伊朗必须先“证明自己”。美国高级官员透露，华盛顿将寻求其他国家和私营部门提供投资。此外，备忘录要求释放伊朗被限制的资金。据央视新闻报道，伊朗央行行长Abdolnaser Hemmati强调，备忘录明确规定了美国解冻资产的义务，这些属于伊朗央行的资金将根据国家经济需求和外汇优先事项进行分配。据悉，伊朗拥有约1000亿美元的受限资产，相比于可随时撤销的制裁豁免，资产所有权的转移将为伊朗带来更为持久的经济利益。海峡开放进程及通航规则面临考验在海上交通方面，美国将在备忘录签署后立即解除封锁，不干涉伊朗的航运，并在最多30天内将海上交通恢复至满负荷状态。同时，伊朗确保波斯湾至阿曼湾的双向商船通行在30天内恢复至战前水平。美国还承诺在最终协议达成后的30天内从周边地区撤军。尽管特朗普承诺海峡将在本周五前开放，但欧洲多国政府、能源投资者和航运公司对此持高度怀疑态度。除了水雷清除存在的实质性安全风险外，海峡的长期通航规则也引发严重分歧。伊朗方面暗示，在60天的谈判期结束后，将向过往船只收取导航费。特朗普则对阿联酋领导人表示，海峡将“永久”免费开放。美国高级官员承认，60天后的海峡通航地位仍将是后续谈判的重要议题。60天谈判窗口与地缘政治风险隐患备忘录的签署仅是长期和平进程的第一步。双方同意在最终协议达成前维持现状：伊朗重申永远不会生产核武器并保持核项目现状，美国则承诺不施加新制裁或在地区增兵。此外，协议要求包括黎巴嫩在内的“所有战线”实现立即且永久的停火。然而，地区局势与双边互信依然脆弱。Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf在与黎巴嫩官员的通话中要求以色列撤出被占领土，而以色列政界则呼吁继续打击真主党，这为协议的全面推进埋下隐患。JD Vance强调协议将建立在严格的核查系统之上，白宫也警告称若伊朗违约将毫不犹豫地恢复军事打击。未来60天，双方能否在多重分歧中达成需联合国安理会约束性决议批准的最终协议，仍充满高度不确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"content":"然后回复我的这位仁兄还在用豆包看美国新闻 回去做a股吧兄弟 a股才适合你","text":"然后回复我的这位仁兄还在用豆包看美国新闻 回去做a股吧兄弟 a股才适合你","html":"然后回复我的这位仁兄还在用豆包看美国新闻 回去做a股吧兄弟 a股才适合你"},{"author":{"id":"3538458176058351","authorId":"3538458176058351","name":"Ruosong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815eb794e0dfe4ac8a13f8e0d781888","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3538458176058351","idStr":"3538458176058351"},"content":"各方都报道了，可信度很高","text":"各方都报道了，可信度很高","html":"各方都报道了，可信度很高"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524853121851544,"gmtCreate":1769164648351,"gmtModify":1769172870708,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"放屁","listText":"放屁","text":"放屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524853121851544","repostId":"1191015886","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191015886","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769144352,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191015886?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-23 12:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球掀起“抛售美国”大潮，默契选择两大主题：亚洲科技股与黄金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191015886","media":"智通财经","summary":"人们正在寻求分散投资。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>以亚洲新兴股市为核心的全球新兴市场股票，以及新兴市场主权货币、黄金与白银等国际贵金属资产延续了2025年末以及2026年开年以来的无比强劲涨势。随着美国与包括欧洲传统盟友在内的多国主权政府之间的日益紧张关系对美元资产造成重大抛售压力，新一波“抛售美国”浪潮，可谓彻底激活全球范围内的多元化资金流动并且重新点燃全球多元资产配置趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">围绕韩国股市、中国A股与港股以及中国台湾股市、印度股市为主题的亚洲新兴市场股市投资浪潮可谓吸引全球资金蜂拥而至，黄金与白银等贵金属资产也在积极跟随这股多元化资金流动趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在周五亚盘交易时间段，随着新兴亚洲股市加速上涨，尤其是韩国和中国香港股市、A股的那些亚洲新兴市场科技股领涨整个亚洲新兴市场股市，衡量亚洲新兴股市的一项MSCI基准股指继前几日强劲涨势后，周五再度攀升至历史新高点位，并且该指数还创下历史最高的收盘点位，与此同时衡量全球范围新兴市场的MSCI新兴市场股票指数在亚洲新兴股市带领之下也朝着历史新高点位奔去。投资者们正以创纪录的速度向新兴市场股票型基金注入现金，使得MSCI新兴市场股票指数接连创下历史新高，同时亚洲主权货币与主权债也在近日获得资金涌入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfdebe8cc82a3a19de2ee58f9ffe1c1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最新市场动态消息显示，中国央行将人民币的每日中间价设定为超过7元人民币兑1美元的强劲水平，这是两年多以来的首次，可谓推动了整个亚洲新兴市场主权货币的整体上涨态势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金价格在“去美元化”大浪潮以及货币贬值危机、地缘政治局势升温导致避险资金持续涌入推动之下，上涨至接近5000美元/盎司这一史诗级关口。本周交易时间段，在格陵兰主权危机以及日本政府长期限债券价格上演大崩盘、美联储货币政策独立性遭遇特朗普威胁、主权货币因债务压力而陷入贬值危机等因素强劲支撑全球避险需求之际，贵金属之一的黄金延续其创纪录的价格涨势，黄金现货/期货价格2025年狂飙式上涨70%之后，2026年初可谓延续涨势如虹般的牛市轨迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球最大规模对冲基金桥水基金的创始人瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)认为，当前围绕美元的全球货币秩序正在崩溃，全球各大央行不再像过去那样将法币视为可靠的财富储存手段，转而增持黄金，这反映了在全球贸易战和资本战的背景下，由于美国主权债务激增以及全球地缘政治互不信任卷土重来，市场正在经历从法币向硬资产的转移。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>亚洲新兴股市杀疯了! A股与韩国股市2026年以来涨势如虹</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者们正在以前所未有的速度将资金注入亚洲新兴市场股市基金，随着资金流出美国资产的抛售旋转势头逐渐增强，MSCI亚洲新兴股市以及MSCI新兴市场股票指数均在周五创下历史新高点位，MSCI拉美股票指数则达到了自2018年4月以来的最高点，而一些拉美长期以来被华尔街唾弃的本币政府债券价格也创下了新高点位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">围绕格林兰岛屿的争斗重新引发了金融市场关于“美国经济例外主义”和“美元霸权主义”的质疑情绪，投资者们认为美国资产不再是世界上最安全以及最可信赖的长期配置资产，促使从欧洲到印度的资金纷纷分散投资组合，试图进一步减少对美国资产，尤其是计划大幅减少对于美国国债资产的长期投资依赖。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毋庸置疑的是，这股全面兴起的资金分散化流动为亚洲新兴市场股债资产自2026年开年以来的强劲反弹提供了强大动力，这一反弹得益于全球经济的韧性增长势头、人工智能支出热潮席卷全球、拉美地区的政治格局变动以及许多发展中国家的财政和货币政策重返正统性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚洲新兴市场股市无疑是全球资金分散化配置大趋势的核心受益市场。随着美国关税政策带来的持续冲击以及“美元长期贬值”与“美国例外论将逐渐崩塌”的市场共识成型，全球资金的流向开始从单一的美元资产向全球范围多元化资产扩散。在这一背景下，具备“高增长、低相关性、低估值”三重属性的亚洲新兴股票资产，尤其是围绕“高增长”属性的亚洲科技成长股，正在吸引全球资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论是在先进制程领域独一无二的台积电，还是全球存储芯片巨头三星电子、SK海力士，亦或是受益于“国产替代”大浪潮的中国芯片制造商中芯国际以及中国半导体设备巨头们，这些都是全球投资者们把握这一轮史无前例的AI技术大浪潮以及半导体超级周期不可或缺的股票标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">韩国股市可谓2026年全球股市中最亮眼的市场。全球资金对于存储芯片的无比火热看涨情绪，推动韩国股市的基准股指——Kospi韩国综合指数2025年狂涨76%，堪称2025年全球最狂野股市，主要因两大合计占比超过30%权重股——即全球存储芯片领军者SK海力士与三星电子疯涨之势，两大存储芯片巨头累计贡献了近一半的涨幅。在2026年1月22日，Kospi韩国综合指数更是一度突破5000点这一史诗级关口再创历史新高，同样得益于SK海力士与三星电子这两大权重股兼存储芯片巨头今年以来的强劲涨势，在周五，Kospi韩国综合指数则继续创下历史新高，今年以来该指数涨幅接近20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中国台湾股市以及A股市场自2026年以来的表现同样无比强劲。在超级权重股台积电的强劲涨势推动之下，中国台湾股市基准——台湾加权指数近期多次刷新纪录高点，在2026年初突破30,000点超级关口并持续不断创出新高。华尔街金融巨头高盛对台积电的评级重申为“确信买入” (Conviction Buy)，并基于对于人工智能(AI)算力需求激增的愈发乐观预期，自1月以来两次上调了台积电目标价，最新目标价高达新台币2,600元。截至周五收盘，台积电股价收于1,770新台币。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2023年以来需求火爆的AI GPU，以及近期需求炸裂的AI ASIC都离不开台积电。台积电目前为全球最大规模的合同芯片代工厂商，随着布局AI的狂热浪潮未见降温之势且继续席卷全球，其客户英伟达以及AMD、博通等芯片巨头，持续从市场对于AI最核心基础设施——AI芯片的激增趋势中受益。这些芯片巨头对台积电的芯片代工合约规模激增，进而推动台积电自去年以来业绩持续超预期强劲扩张，这也是台积电台股以及美股ADR股价近年来屡创新高的重要逻辑支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中国A股市场同样涨势强劲，其中上证指数截至周五收盘仍然强势位于2015年7月底以来的最高点位附近，此前几日曾一举创史上最长连阳纪录，2026年以来涨幅已经高达5%;创业板指数自2026年以来涨幅同样接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A股强劲涨势主要因市场对于DeepSeek引领之下中国在AI应用进展方面的持续乐观情绪以及“国产替代”热潮之下中国AI算力产业链持续强劲涨势。在全球AI算力基础设施需求持续大爆发，以及中美博弈大背景下的“国产替代”热潮之下，A股市场的多只AI算力产业链领军者与芯片设计、半导体设备龙头股股价涨势如虹且屡创历史新高，业绩亦同步大增。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通资产管理公司亚太股票基金经理奥利弗·考克斯表示，中国半导体设备商具有“卖铲人”优势——无论下游芯片厂商竞争格局如何变化，设备需求都将持续受益于产业升级以及中美博弈之下的国产芯片替代浪潮。这位管理着21亿美元资产的基金经理旗下基金在今年的业绩表现超过95%同行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“悄悄退出”美国资产</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">来自TCW集团的首席执行官凯蒂·科赫在周五接受媒体采访时表示：“人们正试图分散化投资以远离美国资产，我可以把它形容为对于长期青睐的美国主权债券资产的‘悄悄退出’。我不认为一些抛售行为会有重大公告，我认为他们将持续寻找分散化投资的机遇。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴西雷亚尔、哥伦比亚比索和智利比索等长期疲软的拉美主权货币今年已上涨超过3%。与此同时，全球最大规模的黄金购买国之一——波兰国家银行，周二批准了购买额外的150吨黄金贵金属的重大计划，此消息对于屡创新高的黄金价格而言可谓重大利好。与亚洲新兴市场股市屡创新高的逻辑类似，黄金也是全球资产多元化配置大趋势的最大受益者之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最新统计数据显示，市值规模高达1350亿美元的iShares Core MSCI新兴市场ETF(投资于全球范围的新兴市场股票，主要权重集中于中国与韩国股市)在1月吸引了近60亿美元的庞大资金净流入，有望创下自2012年该ETF基金成立以来的单月最大规模资金净流入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed8c70d36dba991e73de3946b39fc11\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行驻伦敦的资深策略师奥利弗·哈维在一份报告中写道：“新兴市场资产是全球经济增长加速的最主要受益者。当发达市场的增长机会受限或者遭遇重大负面性质逻辑时，新兴市场的前景将更加看涨。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">来自花旗集团的策略师罗希特·加尔格和戈登·高在一份报告中表示：“去美元化趋势以及美国政府财政挥霍主题又回来了。去美元化与财政赤字扩张非常有可能以更加积极的方式影响新兴市场的风险溢价，尤其是亚洲科技股，就像2025年一样。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球掀起“抛售美国”大潮，默契选择两大主题：亚洲科技股与黄金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-23 12:59 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1396645.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以亚洲新兴股市为核心的全球新兴市场股票，以及新兴市场主权货币、黄金与白银等国际贵金属资产延续了2025年末以及2026年开年以来的无比强劲涨势。随着美国与包括欧洲传统盟友在内的多国主权政府之间的日益紧张关系对美元资产造成重大抛售压力，新一波“抛售美国”浪潮，可谓彻底激活全球范围内的多元化资金流动并且重新点燃全球多元资产配置趋势。围绕韩国股市、中国A股与港股以及中国台湾股市、印度股市为主题的亚洲新兴...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1396645.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8665e3642a72cc64378124e5aa916648","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1396645.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1191015886","content_text":"以亚洲新兴股市为核心的全球新兴市场股票，以及新兴市场主权货币、黄金与白银等国际贵金属资产延续了2025年末以及2026年开年以来的无比强劲涨势。随着美国与包括欧洲传统盟友在内的多国主权政府之间的日益紧张关系对美元资产造成重大抛售压力，新一波“抛售美国”浪潮，可谓彻底激活全球范围内的多元化资金流动并且重新点燃全球多元资产配置趋势。围绕韩国股市、中国A股与港股以及中国台湾股市、印度股市为主题的亚洲新兴市场股市投资浪潮可谓吸引全球资金蜂拥而至，黄金与白银等贵金属资产也在积极跟随这股多元化资金流动趋势。在周五亚盘交易时间段，随着新兴亚洲股市加速上涨，尤其是韩国和中国香港股市、A股的那些亚洲新兴市场科技股领涨整个亚洲新兴市场股市，衡量亚洲新兴股市的一项MSCI基准股指继前几日强劲涨势后，周五再度攀升至历史新高点位，并且该指数还创下历史最高的收盘点位，与此同时衡量全球范围新兴市场的MSCI新兴市场股票指数在亚洲新兴股市带领之下也朝着历史新高点位奔去。投资者们正以创纪录的速度向新兴市场股票型基金注入现金，使得MSCI新兴市场股票指数接连创下历史新高，同时亚洲主权货币与主权债也在近日获得资金涌入。最新市场动态消息显示，中国央行将人民币的每日中间价设定为超过7元人民币兑1美元的强劲水平，这是两年多以来的首次，可谓推动了整个亚洲新兴市场主权货币的整体上涨态势。黄金价格在“去美元化”大浪潮以及货币贬值危机、地缘政治局势升温导致避险资金持续涌入推动之下，上涨至接近5000美元/盎司这一史诗级关口。本周交易时间段，在格陵兰主权危机以及日本政府长期限债券价格上演大崩盘、美联储货币政策独立性遭遇特朗普威胁、主权货币因债务压力而陷入贬值危机等因素强劲支撑全球避险需求之际，贵金属之一的黄金延续其创纪录的价格涨势，黄金现货/期货价格2025年狂飙式上涨70%之后，2026年初可谓延续涨势如虹般的牛市轨迹。全球最大规模对冲基金桥水基金的创始人瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)认为，当前围绕美元的全球货币秩序正在崩溃，全球各大央行不再像过去那样将法币视为可靠的财富储存手段，转而增持黄金，这反映了在全球贸易战和资本战的背景下，由于美国主权债务激增以及全球地缘政治互不信任卷土重来，市场正在经历从法币向硬资产的转移。亚洲新兴股市杀疯了! A股与韩国股市2026年以来涨势如虹投资者们正在以前所未有的速度将资金注入亚洲新兴市场股市基金，随着资金流出美国资产的抛售旋转势头逐渐增强，MSCI亚洲新兴股市以及MSCI新兴市场股票指数均在周五创下历史新高点位，MSCI拉美股票指数则达到了自2018年4月以来的最高点，而一些拉美长期以来被华尔街唾弃的本币政府债券价格也创下了新高点位。围绕格林兰岛屿的争斗重新引发了金融市场关于“美国经济例外主义”和“美元霸权主义”的质疑情绪，投资者们认为美国资产不再是世界上最安全以及最可信赖的长期配置资产，促使从欧洲到印度的资金纷纷分散投资组合，试图进一步减少对美国资产，尤其是计划大幅减少对于美国国债资产的长期投资依赖。毋庸置疑的是，这股全面兴起的资金分散化流动为亚洲新兴市场股债资产自2026年开年以来的强劲反弹提供了强大动力，这一反弹得益于全球经济的韧性增长势头、人工智能支出热潮席卷全球、拉美地区的政治格局变动以及许多发展中国家的财政和货币政策重返正统性。亚洲新兴市场股市无疑是全球资金分散化配置大趋势的核心受益市场。随着美国关税政策带来的持续冲击以及“美元长期贬值”与“美国例外论将逐渐崩塌”的市场共识成型，全球资金的流向开始从单一的美元资产向全球范围多元化资产扩散。在这一背景下，具备“高增长、低相关性、低估值”三重属性的亚洲新兴股票资产，尤其是围绕“高增长”属性的亚洲科技成长股，正在吸引全球资金。无论是在先进制程领域独一无二的台积电，还是全球存储芯片巨头三星电子、SK海力士，亦或是受益于“国产替代”大浪潮的中国芯片制造商中芯国际以及中国半导体设备巨头们，这些都是全球投资者们把握这一轮史无前例的AI技术大浪潮以及半导体超级周期不可或缺的股票标的。韩国股市可谓2026年全球股市中最亮眼的市场。全球资金对于存储芯片的无比火热看涨情绪，推动韩国股市的基准股指——Kospi韩国综合指数2025年狂涨76%，堪称2025年全球最狂野股市，主要因两大合计占比超过30%权重股——即全球存储芯片领军者SK海力士与三星电子疯涨之势，两大存储芯片巨头累计贡献了近一半的涨幅。在2026年1月22日，Kospi韩国综合指数更是一度突破5000点这一史诗级关口再创历史新高，同样得益于SK海力士与三星电子这两大权重股兼存储芯片巨头今年以来的强劲涨势，在周五，Kospi韩国综合指数则继续创下历史新高，今年以来该指数涨幅接近20%。中国台湾股市以及A股市场自2026年以来的表现同样无比强劲。在超级权重股台积电的强劲涨势推动之下，中国台湾股市基准——台湾加权指数近期多次刷新纪录高点，在2026年初突破30,000点超级关口并持续不断创出新高。华尔街金融巨头高盛对台积电的评级重申为“确信买入” (Conviction Buy)，并基于对于人工智能(AI)算力需求激增的愈发乐观预期，自1月以来两次上调了台积电目标价，最新目标价高达新台币2,600元。截至周五收盘，台积电股价收于1,770新台币。自2023年以来需求火爆的AI GPU，以及近期需求炸裂的AI ASIC都离不开台积电。台积电目前为全球最大规模的合同芯片代工厂商，随着布局AI的狂热浪潮未见降温之势且继续席卷全球，其客户英伟达以及AMD、博通等芯片巨头，持续从市场对于AI最核心基础设施——AI芯片的激增趋势中受益。这些芯片巨头对台积电的芯片代工合约规模激增，进而推动台积电自去年以来业绩持续超预期强劲扩张，这也是台积电台股以及美股ADR股价近年来屡创新高的重要逻辑支撑。中国A股市场同样涨势强劲，其中上证指数截至周五收盘仍然强势位于2015年7月底以来的最高点位附近，此前几日曾一举创史上最长连阳纪录，2026年以来涨幅已经高达5%;创业板指数自2026年以来涨幅同样接近5%。A股强劲涨势主要因市场对于DeepSeek引领之下中国在AI应用进展方面的持续乐观情绪以及“国产替代”热潮之下中国AI算力产业链持续强劲涨势。在全球AI算力基础设施需求持续大爆发，以及中美博弈大背景下的“国产替代”热潮之下，A股市场的多只AI算力产业链领军者与芯片设计、半导体设备龙头股股价涨势如虹且屡创历史新高，业绩亦同步大增。摩根大通资产管理公司亚太股票基金经理奥利弗·考克斯表示，中国半导体设备商具有“卖铲人”优势——无论下游芯片厂商竞争格局如何变化，设备需求都将持续受益于产业升级以及中美博弈之下的国产芯片替代浪潮。这位管理着21亿美元资产的基金经理旗下基金在今年的业绩表现超过95%同行。“悄悄退出”美国资产来自TCW集团的首席执行官凯蒂·科赫在周五接受媒体采访时表示：“人们正试图分散化投资以远离美国资产，我可以把它形容为对于长期青睐的美国主权债券资产的‘悄悄退出’。我不认为一些抛售行为会有重大公告，我认为他们将持续寻找分散化投资的机遇。”巴西雷亚尔、哥伦比亚比索和智利比索等长期疲软的拉美主权货币今年已上涨超过3%。与此同时，全球最大规模的黄金购买国之一——波兰国家银行，周二批准了购买额外的150吨黄金贵金属的重大计划，此消息对于屡创新高的黄金价格而言可谓重大利好。与亚洲新兴市场股市屡创新高的逻辑类似，黄金也是全球资产多元化配置大趋势的最大受益者之一。最新统计数据显示，市值规模高达1350亿美元的iShares Core MSCI新兴市场ETF(投资于全球范围的新兴市场股票，主要权重集中于中国与韩国股市)在1月吸引了近60亿美元的庞大资金净流入，有望创下自2012年该ETF基金成立以来的单月最大规模资金净流入。德意志银行驻伦敦的资深策略师奥利弗·哈维在一份报告中写道：“新兴市场资产是全球经济增长加速的最主要受益者。当发达市场的增长机会受限或者遭遇重大负面性质逻辑时，新兴市场的前景将更加看涨。”来自花旗集团的策略师罗希特·加尔格和戈登·高在一份报告中表示：“去美元化趋势以及美国政府财政挥霍主题又回来了。去美元化与财政赤字扩张非常有可能以更加积极的方式影响新兴市场的风险溢价，尤其是亚洲科技股，就像2025年一样。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512188701500608,"gmtCreate":1766073111036,"gmtModify":1766073152493,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"垃圾简体中文文章","listText":"垃圾简体中文文章","text":"垃圾简体中文文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512188701500608","repostId":"2592904517","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592904517","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1766067620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2592904517?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-18 22:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592904517","media":"智通财经网","summary":"问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股票。</p><p>这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。</p><p>此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。<strong>但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。</strong></p><p>First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8a1b96ead6b01240cf9bb1879f76e0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><p>鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。</p><p>Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”</p><p>当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。</p><p>50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“<strong>从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。</strong>SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”</p><p><strong>分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。</strong></p><p>这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。</p><p>对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。</p><h2 id=\"id_3064329623\">“加倍押注马斯克”</h2><p><strong>另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。</strong>马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。</p><p>持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”</p><p><strong>如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。</strong></p><p>Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”</p><p>Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”</p><p><strong>就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。</strong></p><p>Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”</p><p>但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。</p><p>51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 22:20 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3952e78c4c7330e4960d16950edf07","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2592904517","content_text":"埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的Palantir Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。“加倍押注马斯克”另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361235944796552,"gmtCreate":1729232388369,"gmtModify":1729233708775,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","listText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","text":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361235944796552","repostId":"2476416677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476416677","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729219326,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2476416677?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-18 10:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476416677","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。","content":"<html><body><p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，<strong>这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。</p>\n<p>就在<strong>两个月前，道指对</strong><strong>哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。</strong>而在<strong>五月份</strong>Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，<strong>民主党获胜的概率被认为只有</strong><strong>58%。</strong>自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。</p>\n<p>民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。</p>\n<p>那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。</p>\n<p><strong>电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。</strong>但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。</p>\n<p>进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：</p>\n<p>若道指截至选举年的10月15日时<strong>涨幅超过10%</strong>，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。</p>\n<p>此外，统计结果显示，当道指<strong>涨幅为正但低于10%时</strong>，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当<strong>年中</strong><strong>道指回报率为负时</strong>，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。</p>\n<p>相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。<strong>人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。</strong></p>\n<p>有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，<strong>后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.jin10.com/news/24/07/-U77z3gWSESsWgVajJDTa.png/lite","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2476416677","content_text":"MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜的概率被认为只有58%。自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。\n民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。\n那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。\n电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。\n进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：\n若道指截至选举年的10月15日时涨幅超过10%，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。\n此外，统计结果显示，当道指涨幅为正但低于10%时，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当年中道指回报率为负时，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。\n相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。\n有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。\nHulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DXD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622034442,"gmtCreate":1675010390887,"gmtModify":1675042807258,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","listText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","text":"中国哪家公司能降价？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622034442","repostId":"2307216919","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626928131,"gmtCreate":1673663017823,"gmtModify":1673663321931,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","listText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","text":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626928131","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预计的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。即使在现在，特斯拉股票仍然昂贵……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-14 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预计的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。即使在现在，特斯拉股票仍然昂贵……</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628454075,"gmtCreate":1673432816497,"gmtModify":1673433362808,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","listText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","text":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628454075","repostId":"2302042504","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}