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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
05-21
$中国奥园(03883)$
缺德玩意
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
05-19
$中国奥园(03883)$
真垃圾呀
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
03-14
$房多多(DUO)$
垃圾就是垃圾
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2024-10-03
这个货还活着呢？婴儿底发明者，但凡脸皮薄一点都会跳楼自杀
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2024-05-31
垃圾公司
阿里巴巴-SW05月31日主力大幅流出1.33亿元 散户资金买入
05月31日, 阿里巴巴-SW股价跌1.83%，报收74.90元，成交金额111.92亿元，换手率0.77%，振幅3.93%，量比3.16。阿里巴巴-SW今日主力资金净流出1.33亿元，上一交易日主力净流入819万元。该股近5个交易日下跌6.85%，主力资金累计净流出2.04亿元，其中1个交易日为股价上涨时净流出；近20日主力资金累计净流入7073万元，其中净流入天数为8日。
阿里巴巴-SW05月31日主力大幅流出1.33亿元 散户资金买入
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2024-05-23
**垃圾
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2023-11-30
$京东(JD)$
京东卖假货，投诉都没用，现在京东早就变了 ，成了一个没有信用度的平台，成了股东的提款机，成了高管的修养所
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2023-10-27
因为数据造假了
为何三季度GDP数据很好，美股却下跌了？
事件2023年10月26日美国商务部经济分析局发布：2023年三季度美国实际GDP年化季环比初值4.9%，同比为2.9%。但从二三季度开始，非住宅建筑投资增速出现了边际放缓，23年前三个季度制造业投资增速分别为32.6%、16.3%和3.2%。净出口方面，Q3小幅拖累GDP增速0.08个百分点。强劲的经济数据为何导致美股下挫？强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。若经济无法保持目前的韧性，美股将面临更多调整风险。
为何三季度GDP数据很好，美股却下跌了？
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2023-07-13
只要是有利可图，美债泡沫不破，美联储官员就会在加息的问题上一直试探，
通胀仍未被征服！这一指标抬头正给美联储继续加息创造条件
《华尔街日报》认为，美国通胀仍未被征服，由于实际工资才刚刚开始增长，美联储需要抓住机会完成其抗通胀的工作。而周三公布的消费者价格指数报告给出的答案仍然是否定的，尽管通胀正越来越接近美联储2%的目标。上个月CPI同比下降至3%，这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平，并且远低于5月份的4%。然而，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI仅下降至4.8%，下降速度较慢。如今，实际利率终于转为正值，一项指标显示，去年货币供应量下降了4%。
通胀仍未被征服！这一指标抬头正给美联储继续加息创造条件
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小脑虎头
小脑虎头
·
2023-07-06
把厂子玩破产然后高管低价收购，这个剧情有点熟
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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16:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴-SW05月31日主力大幅流出1.33亿元 散户资金买入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439513509","media":"自选股智能写手","summary":"05月31日, 阿里巴巴-SW股价跌1.83%，报收74.90元，成交金额111.92亿元，换手率0.77%，振幅3.93%，量比3.16。阿里巴巴-SW今日主力资金净流出1.33亿元，上一交易日主力净流入819万元。该股近5个交易日下跌6.85%，主力资金累计净流出2.04亿元，其中1个交易日为股价上涨时净流出；近20日主力资金累计净流入7073万元，其中净流入天数为8日。","content":"<html><body><article><p>05月31日, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>股价跌1.83%，报收74.90元，成交金额111.92亿元，<span>换手率</span>0.77%，振幅3.93%，<span>量比</span>3.16。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>-SW今日主力资金（超大单+大单）净流出1.33亿元，上一交易日主力净流入819万元。</p><p>该股近5个交易日下跌6.85%，主力资金累计净流出2.04亿元，其中1个交易日为股价上涨时净流出；近20日主力资金累计净流入7073万元，其中净流入天数为8日。</p><p>|05月31日主力加仓幅度前10个股||#|股票简称|主力净额占比|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08187\">积木集团</a>|7.85%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01380\">中国金石</a>|3.45%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00673\">中国卫生集团</a>|1.39%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08200\">修身堂</a>|1.27%|#|MOSHOUSE|0.69%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09689\">金泰丰国际控股</a>|0.43%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02535\">泓基集团</a>|0.42%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08186\">曼妠</a>|0.42%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">复星医药</a>|0.41%|#|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01421\">工盖有限公司</a>|0.40%|</p><p>（以上内容为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>自选股基于公开消息，由程序或算法<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>生成，仅作为用户看盘参考，不作为投资建议或交易依据。股市有风险，请谨慎决策。）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴-SW05月31日主力大幅流出1.33亿元 散户资金买入</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240531161619957e954b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1502":"双十一","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0251144936.SGD":"Fidelity Sustainable Asia 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阿里巴巴-SW股价跌1.83%，报收74.90元，成交金额111.92亿元，换手率0.77%，振幅3.93%，量比3.16。阿里巴巴-SW今日主力资金（超大单+大单）净流出1.33亿元，上一交易日主力净流入819万元。该股近5个交易日下跌6.85%，主力资金累计净流出2.04亿元，其中1个交易日为股价上涨时净流出；近20日主力资金累计净流入7073万元，其中净流入天数为8日。|05月31日主力加仓幅度前10个股||#|股票简称|主力净额占比|#|积木集团|7.85%|#|中国金石|3.45%|#|中国卫生集团|1.39%|#|修身堂|1.27%|#|MOSHOUSE|0.69%|#|金泰丰国际控股|0.43%|#|泓基集团|0.42%|#|曼妠|0.42%|#|复星医药|0.41%|#|工盖有限公司|0.40%|（以上内容为腾讯自选股基于公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为用户看盘参考，不作为投资建议或交易依据。股市有风险，请谨慎决策。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"09988":1,"BABA":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308989416239272,"gmtCreate":1716464705393,"gmtModify":1716472713280,"author":{"id":"3519508048768513","authorId":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","idStr":"3519508048768513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**垃圾","listText":"**垃圾","text":"**垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308989416239272","repostId":"1174633103","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":247066868707640,"gmtCreate":1701356940683,"gmtModify":1701357166163,"author":{"id":"3519508048768513","authorId":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","idStr":"3519508048768513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$ </a>京东卖假货，投诉都没用，现在京东早就变了 ，成了一个没有信用度的平台，成了股东的提款机，成了高管的修养所","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$ </a>京东卖假货，投诉都没用，现在京东早就变了 ，成了一个没有信用度的平台，成了股东的提款机，成了高管的修养所","text":"$京东(JD)$ 京东卖假货，投诉都没用，现在京东早就变了 ，成了一个没有信用度的平台，成了股东的提款机，成了高管的修养所","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/247066868707640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":234898530406488,"gmtCreate":1698376146226,"gmtModify":1698376147140,"author":{"id":"3519508048768513","authorId":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","idStr":"3519508048768513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为数据造假了","listText":"因为数据造假了","text":"因为数据造假了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/234898530406488","repostId":"1181089401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181089401","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1698368781,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181089401?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-27 09:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为何三季度GDP数据很好，美股却下跌了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181089401","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"事件2023年10月26日美国商务部经济分析局发布：2023年三季度美国实际GDP年化季环比初值4.9%，同比为2.9%。但从二三季度开始，非住宅建筑投资增速出现了边际放缓，23年前三个季度制造业投资增速分别为32.6%、16.3%和3.2%。净出口方面，Q3小幅拖累GDP增速0.08个百分点。强劲的经济数据为何导致美股下挫？强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。若经济无法保持目前的韧性，美股将面临更多调整风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>目前标普500风险溢价为-1.27%，美股相对美债而言缺乏投资价值。强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2183391500\">事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年10月26日美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）发布：2023年三季度美国实际GDP年化季环比初值4.9%（前值2.1%），同比为2.9%（前值2.4%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_405603589\">核心观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国23年Q3实际GDP环比折年率初值4.9%，反映出消费大幅升温、存货投资顺周期增长和政府支出偏强。</strong>固定资产投资方面，非住宅投资录得-0.1%（前值7.4%），拉动GDP增速0个百分点，主因在二季度高增幅的基础上出现了较明显的边际放缓。其中建筑增幅1.6%（前值16.1%），设备转负-3.8%（前值7.7%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在21年底的基建投资和就业法案（IIJA）和通胀削减法案（IRA）陆续落地生效之后，受益于直接投资和间接补贴支持，美国基建和以半导体工厂为代表的制造业建筑投资在今年上半年直线拉升。但从二三季度开始，非住宅建筑投资增速出现了边际放缓，23年前三个季度制造业投资增速分别为32.6%、16.3%和3.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">住宅投资提速至3.9%（前值-2.2%），拉动GDP增速0.2个百分点。在高利率的环境下，这部分反映出成屋供给向趋势回归偏缓慢的影响，但是美债利率高位已促使30年抵押贷款利率升至7.6%，预计住宅投资项往后走势偏弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得注意两点：1）去年10月通过的《2023纳税年度税收通货膨胀调整》将纳税标准扣除额提高了约7%，2023年1月开始执行拉动今年美国个人消费支出（名义值）多增1-1.8%；2）换算成同比，Q3实际经济增速为2.9%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>受美国《通胀削减法案》与《芯片法案》提振，前三个季度的非住宅固定资产投资升温，带动了存货投资的顺周期调整。</strong>Q3存货投资拉动经济增速1.3个百分点，一方面反映出在二季度低增幅的基础上，存货投资项本身具有扩大波动的特点，另一方面，这也反映出经济顺周期下的库存调整。另外，政府支出Q3对GDP拉动达到0.8个百分点，其中国防拉动0.3个百分点（前值0.1个百分点）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>由于拜登政府供给侧经济学的财政支持、强劲劳动力市场和夏季消费升温等因素叠加，Q3个人消费支出拉动GDP增速2.7个百分点。</strong>个人消费支出环比折年增速升至4.0%（前值0.8%），其中商品项4.8%（前值0.5%），主要反映耐用品消费大幅提升7.6%（前值-0.3%），服务3.6%（前值1.0%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除公共投资和产业补贴之外，拜登财政政策具有补贴中低收入劳动者的特点，该部分人群的边际消费倾向较高，基于通胀调节因素的税收减免、学生贷款减免等因素对于高利率环境形成了有效对冲，支持Q3消费强劲反弹。往后看，在高院判决逆转拜登政府对学生贷款的减免之后，财政支持的边际退坡和高利率的滞后效果或被延后至24年浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>净出口方面，</strong>Q3小幅拖累GDP增速0.08个百分点。美国的商品和服务贸易赤字近三个季度走势波动偏平，往后看，在亚洲和欧洲经济体增速均承压的情况下，美国净出口难以成为经济的主要拉动来源，特别在制造业和基建投资位于长上行周期的背景下。其中，8月份商品逆差收窄，消费品和资本品进口偏弱，但工业用品和材料进口有所提升，反映出非住宅固定投资的持续动能。服务顺差8月增加至262亿美元（前值252亿美元），旅游和金融服务出口均有小幅提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>强劲的经济数据为何导致美股下挫？目前标普500风险溢价为-1.27%，美股相对美债而言缺乏投资价值。</strong>首先，20日鲍威尔讲话后，CME仍反映市场预期美联储不会在11月份进一步加息，但是在12月或1月抬升终端利率的预期概率在20%以上。强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，由图4可知，目前标普500指数风险溢价为-1.27%，表明其相对美债而言缺乏投资价值，只要美债收益率继续保持高位、美联储不再通过银行定期融资计划等项目为市场注入流动性，美股就存在调整压力。若经济无法保持目前的韧性，美股将面临更多调整风险。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a09104667e8003cc5a257efb5db1992\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"721\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c92f1cc9dcc43754c58577c851d4dbe\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"713\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbdcbf8b73677719d2f634a5332a7a4f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为何三季度GDP数据很好，美股却下跌了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为何三季度GDP数据很好，美股却下跌了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-27 09:06 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kYYgqPYdNesaNKvAq-v9Zg><strong>招商宏观静思录</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前标普500风险溢价为-1.27%，美股相对美债而言缺乏投资价值。强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。事件2023年10月26日美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）发布：2023年三季度美国实际GDP年化季环比初值4.9%（前值2.1%），同比为2.9%（前值2.4%）。核心观点美国23年Q3实际GDP环比折年率初值4.9%，反映出消费大幅升温、存货投资顺周期增长和政府...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kYYgqPYdNesaNKvAq-v9Zg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kYYgqPYdNesaNKvAq-v9Zg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181089401","content_text":"目前标普500风险溢价为-1.27%，美股相对美债而言缺乏投资价值。强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。事件2023年10月26日美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）发布：2023年三季度美国实际GDP年化季环比初值4.9%（前值2.1%），同比为2.9%（前值2.4%）。核心观点美国23年Q3实际GDP环比折年率初值4.9%，反映出消费大幅升温、存货投资顺周期增长和政府支出偏强。固定资产投资方面，非住宅投资录得-0.1%（前值7.4%），拉动GDP增速0个百分点，主因在二季度高增幅的基础上出现了较明显的边际放缓。其中建筑增幅1.6%（前值16.1%），设备转负-3.8%（前值7.7%）。在21年底的基建投资和就业法案（IIJA）和通胀削减法案（IRA）陆续落地生效之后，受益于直接投资和间接补贴支持，美国基建和以半导体工厂为代表的制造业建筑投资在今年上半年直线拉升。但从二三季度开始，非住宅建筑投资增速出现了边际放缓，23年前三个季度制造业投资增速分别为32.6%、16.3%和3.2%。住宅投资提速至3.9%（前值-2.2%），拉动GDP增速0.2个百分点。在高利率的环境下，这部分反映出成屋供给向趋势回归偏缓慢的影响，但是美债利率高位已促使30年抵押贷款利率升至7.6%，预计住宅投资项往后走势偏弱。值得注意两点：1）去年10月通过的《2023纳税年度税收通货膨胀调整》将纳税标准扣除额提高了约7%，2023年1月开始执行拉动今年美国个人消费支出（名义值）多增1-1.8%；2）换算成同比，Q3实际经济增速为2.9%。受美国《通胀削减法案》与《芯片法案》提振，前三个季度的非住宅固定资产投资升温，带动了存货投资的顺周期调整。Q3存货投资拉动经济增速1.3个百分点，一方面反映出在二季度低增幅的基础上，存货投资项本身具有扩大波动的特点，另一方面，这也反映出经济顺周期下的库存调整。另外，政府支出Q3对GDP拉动达到0.8个百分点，其中国防拉动0.3个百分点（前值0.1个百分点）。由于拜登政府供给侧经济学的财政支持、强劲劳动力市场和夏季消费升温等因素叠加，Q3个人消费支出拉动GDP增速2.7个百分点。个人消费支出环比折年增速升至4.0%（前值0.8%），其中商品项4.8%（前值0.5%），主要反映耐用品消费大幅提升7.6%（前值-0.3%），服务3.6%（前值1.0%）。除公共投资和产业补贴之外，拜登财政政策具有补贴中低收入劳动者的特点，该部分人群的边际消费倾向较高，基于通胀调节因素的税收减免、学生贷款减免等因素对于高利率环境形成了有效对冲，支持Q3消费强劲反弹。往后看，在高院判决逆转拜登政府对学生贷款的减免之后，财政支持的边际退坡和高利率的滞后效果或被延后至24年浮现。净出口方面，Q3小幅拖累GDP增速0.08个百分点。美国的商品和服务贸易赤字近三个季度走势波动偏平，往后看，在亚洲和欧洲经济体增速均承压的情况下，美国净出口难以成为经济的主要拉动来源，特别在制造业和基建投资位于长上行周期的背景下。其中，8月份商品逆差收窄，消费品和资本品进口偏弱，但工业用品和材料进口有所提升，反映出非住宅固定投资的持续动能。服务顺差8月增加至262亿美元（前值252亿美元），旅游和金融服务出口均有小幅提升。强劲的经济数据为何导致美股下挫？目前标普500风险溢价为-1.27%，美股相对美债而言缺乏投资价值。首先，20日鲍威尔讲话后，CME仍反映市场预期美联储不会在11月份进一步加息，但是在12月或1月抬升终端利率的预期概率在20%以上。强劲的数据又增加了未来继续加息的可能性，美债收益率暂时难以明显回落。另一方面，由图4可知，目前标普500指数风险溢价为-1.27%，表明其相对美债而言缺乏投资价值，只要美债收益率继续保持高位、美联储不再通过银行定期融资计划等项目为市场注入流动性，美股就存在调整压力。若经济无法保持目前的韧性，美股将面临更多调整风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197511289708560,"gmtCreate":1689250218527,"gmtModify":1689255496887,"author":{"id":"3519508048768513","authorId":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","idStr":"3519508048768513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要是有利可图，美债泡沫不破，美联储官员就会在加息的问题上一直试探，","listText":"只要是有利可图，美债泡沫不破，美联储官员就会在加息的问题上一直试探，","text":"只要是有利可图，美债泡沫不破，美联储官员就会在加息的问题上一直试探，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197511289708560","repostId":"2351704447","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2351704447","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1689248865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2351704447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-13 19:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"通胀仍未被征服！这一指标抬头正给美联储继续加息创造条件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2351704447","media":"金十数据","summary":"《华尔街日报》认为，美国通胀仍未被征服，由于实际工资才刚刚开始增长，美联储需要抓住机会完成其抗通胀的工作。而周三公布的消费者价格指数报告给出的答案仍然是否定的，尽管通胀正越来越接近美联储2%的目标。上个月CPI同比下降至3%，这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平，并且远低于5月份的4%。然而，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI仅下降至4.8%，下降速度较慢。如今，实际利率终于转为正值，一项指标显示，去年货币供应量下降了4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>《华尔街日报》认为，美国通胀仍未被征服，<strong>由于实际工资才刚刚开始增长，美联储需要抓住机会完成其抗通胀的工作。</strong></p><p>该报道指出，对于美联储主席鲍威尔来说，投资者就像在旅游途中坐在后座上的孩子一样，每隔几分钟就要问一次：“我们到了吗？”而<strong>周三公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告给出的答案仍然是否定的，尽管通胀正越来越接近美联储2%的目标。</strong></p><p>《华尔街日报》称，虽然通胀率继续下降，但服务价格和不包括食品和能源的核心CPI仍然保持不变。上个月CPI同比下降至3%，这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平，并且远低于5月份的4%。下降的主要原因是能源和食品价格下降。然而，<strong>扣除食品和能源的核心CPI仅下降至4.8%，下降速度较慢。</strong></p><p>住房一直是价格上涨的最大贡献者，在过去几个月里该分项没有太大变化。租金上个月上涨了0.5%，比去年同期上涨了8.3%。据报道，虽然一些地铁地段的房屋租金开始下降，但<strong>高房价和不断上升的利率不仅使人们需要为住房花费更多租金，而且还在对租金施加上行压力。</strong></p><p>也许住房价格会下降，因为政府的衡量标准存在滞后性。但<strong>汽车保险和医疗保健等一些服务的价格一直在上涨</strong>，因为医疗服务提供商和保险公司开始将更高的成本转嫁给客户。汽车保险价格在过去一年增长了16.9%，上个月增长了1.7%。</p><p><strong>最好的消息是，实际工资终于开始增长</strong>，尽管要弥补两年多来的下降还有很长的路要走。上个月实际平均时薪增长了0.2%，过去12个月增长了1.2%。但仍比2020年12月低3.2%，这无疑解释了为什么美国人在低失业率的情况下仍对经济感到沮丧。</p><p>如今，实际利率终于转为正值，一项指标显示，去年货币供应量下降了4%。但《华尔街日报》表示，从历史标准来看，货币环境并没有那么紧张。<strong>市场希望鲍威尔踩下刹车，但美联储可能还需要继续完成其反通胀的工作，而当它仍有一个体面的劳动力市场时，再没有比这更好的时机了。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>通胀仍未被征服！这一指标抬头正给美联储继续加息创造条件</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n通胀仍未被征服！这一指标抬头正给美联储继续加息创造条件\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-13 19:47 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=117072&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>《华尔街日报》认为，美国通胀仍未被征服，由于实际工资才刚刚开始增长，美联储需要抓住机会完成其抗通胀的工作。该报道指出，对于美联储主席鲍威尔来说，投资者就像在旅游途中坐在后座上的孩子一样，每隔几分钟就要问一次：“我们到了吗？”而周三公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告给出的答案仍然是否定的，尽管通胀正越来越接近美联储2%的目标。《华尔街日报》称，虽然通胀率继续下降，但服务价格和不包括食品和能源的核心...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=117072&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca3664a72b9a3c688eb0a518c561de6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=117072&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2351704447","content_text":"《华尔街日报》认为，美国通胀仍未被征服，由于实际工资才刚刚开始增长，美联储需要抓住机会完成其抗通胀的工作。该报道指出，对于美联储主席鲍威尔来说，投资者就像在旅游途中坐在后座上的孩子一样，每隔几分钟就要问一次：“我们到了吗？”而周三公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告给出的答案仍然是否定的，尽管通胀正越来越接近美联储2%的目标。《华尔街日报》称，虽然通胀率继续下降，但服务价格和不包括食品和能源的核心CPI仍然保持不变。上个月CPI同比下降至3%，这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平，并且远低于5月份的4%。下降的主要原因是能源和食品价格下降。然而，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI仅下降至4.8%，下降速度较慢。住房一直是价格上涨的最大贡献者，在过去几个月里该分项没有太大变化。租金上个月上涨了0.5%，比去年同期上涨了8.3%。据报道，虽然一些地铁地段的房屋租金开始下降，但高房价和不断上升的利率不仅使人们需要为住房花费更多租金，而且还在对租金施加上行压力。也许住房价格会下降，因为政府的衡量标准存在滞后性。但汽车保险和医疗保健等一些服务的价格一直在上涨，因为医疗服务提供商和保险公司开始将更高的成本转嫁给客户。汽车保险价格在过去一年增长了16.9%，上个月增长了1.7%。最好的消息是，实际工资终于开始增长，尽管要弥补两年多来的下降还有很长的路要走。上个月实际平均时薪增长了0.2%，过去12个月增长了1.2%。但仍比2020年12月低3.2%，这无疑解释了为什么美国人在低失业率的情况下仍对经济感到沮丧。如今，实际利率终于转为正值，一项指标显示，去年货币供应量下降了4%。但《华尔街日报》表示，从历史标准来看，货币环境并没有那么紧张。市场希望鲍威尔踩下刹车，但美联储可能还需要继续完成其反通胀的工作，而当它仍有一个体面的劳动力市场时，再没有比这更好的时机了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195038943690856,"gmtCreate":1688649859392,"gmtModify":1688649861224,"author":{"id":"3519508048768513","authorId":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","idStr":"3519508048768513"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"把厂子玩破产然后高管低价收购，这个剧情有点熟","listText":"把厂子玩破产然后高管低价收购，这个剧情有点熟","text":"把厂子玩破产然后高管低价收购，这个剧情有点熟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195038943690856","repostId":"1116470725","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}