社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
srdstom
IP属地:河北
+关注
帖子 · 19
帖子 · 19
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-28
通胀的代价鲍威尔不知道吗?等疫情结束通胀和大量的负债,会使流动资本逃离美国,到时候我也想请教你怎么办
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
看
3,464
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-20
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
说句大家不爱听的,只要股市大跌川普就会无下限的把股市正回来,所以建议仓位高的可以适当减仓,我感觉大的波动还得到11月左右现在有点早
看
5,824
回复
3
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-07
阿里退了有的是中国人买
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
看
5,210
回复
4
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-05
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
如果没入的可以在下周一考虑入一些,现在没跑的,其实也不用太恐慌,美元指数下到92点多了,是该看看美联储这波钱你还敢印吗
看
5,919
回复
1
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-03
说实话很难,除非出现刚印完钱,结果股市暴跌的情况
47年股市老兵:美股两年内或暴跌80%
Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师亨特(David Hunter)认为,目前全球经济正在经历一场可怕的“大破灭”,将分为两个阶段。根据亨特的预期,第二阶段将在今年年底或者
47年股市老兵:美股两年内或暴跌80%
看
2,559
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-08-02
有一天美联储印完钱,股市结果不涨反跌这时候,鲍威尔就心态炸了
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
看
3,258
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-07-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
其实看看老虎上面的关注数就知道这股什么样了
看
4,174
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-07-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
我想起了全职高手的那句话,只不过是从头再来罢了,有什么大不了的呢
看
4,718
回复
1
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-07-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
大单瞬间进了好几千
看
6,548
回复
1
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
srdstom
srdstom
·
2020-07-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
全是小单卖的
看
1,523
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
暂无关注
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3521097519220479","uuid":"3521097519220479","gmtCreate":1558003497397,"gmtModify":1558003497397,"name":"srdstom","pinyin":"srdstom","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":35,"tweetSize":19,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":3,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-2","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识探索家","description":"观看学堂课程满20节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cc10a4789c3eaa019b225a55136cf9","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f0cbf3ae1b0a4593ddb3434df74ce0","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.05.10","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"河北","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":973434763,"gmtCreate":1598589732052,"gmtModify":1704219737888,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通胀的代价鲍威尔不知道吗?等疫情结束通胀和大量的负债,会使流动资本逃离美国,到时候我也想请教你怎么办","listText":"通胀的代价鲍威尔不知道吗?等疫情结束通胀和大量的负债,会使流动资本逃离美国,到时候我也想请教你怎么办","text":"通胀的代价鲍威尔不知道吗?等疫情结束通胀和大量的负债,会使流动资本逃离美国,到时候我也想请教你怎么办","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973434763","repostId":"1106908086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970726010,"gmtCreate":1597915272530,"gmtModify":1704217214588,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>说句大家不爱听的,只要股市大跌川普就会无下限的把股市正回来,所以建议仓位高的可以适当减仓,我感觉大的波动还得到11月左右现在有点早","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>说句大家不爱听的,只要股市大跌川普就会无下限的把股市正回来,所以建议仓位高的可以适当减仓,我感觉大的波动还得到11月左右现在有点早","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$说句大家不爱听的,只要股市大跌川普就会无下限的把股市正回来,所以建议仓位高的可以适当减仓,我感觉大的波动还得到11月左右现在有点早","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970726010","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550742667100539","authorId":"3550742667100539","name":"Monster777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886d9dc49878363f068696e39deae9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550742667100539","authorIdStr":"3550742667100539"},"content":"同意,标普周线和日线还是很强势,感染快六百万都影响不了,只有等十一月会出什么黑天鹅了","text":"同意,标普周线和日线还是很强势,感染快六百万都影响不了,只有等十一月会出什么黑天鹅了","html":"同意,标普周线和日线还是很强势,感染快六百万都影响不了,只有等十一月会出什么黑天鹅了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944334826,"gmtCreate":1596770667565,"gmtModify":1704213542158,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿里退了有的是中国人买","listText":"阿里退了有的是中国人买","text":"阿里退了有的是中国人买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944334826","repostId":"1123784279","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3500417017057661","authorId":"3500417017057661","name":"首都嚣张首帅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3500417017057661","authorIdStr":"3500417017057661"},"content":"阿里有什么好买的,阿里的股权架构明摆着就是侮辱人智商,不如腾讯","text":"阿里有什么好买的,阿里的股权架构明摆着就是侮辱人智商,不如腾讯","html":"阿里有什么好买的,阿里的股权架构明摆着就是侮辱人智商,不如腾讯"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945569914,"gmtCreate":1596619404538,"gmtModify":1704212904613,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>如果没入的可以在下周一考虑入一些,现在没跑的,其实也不用太恐慌,美元指数下到92点多了,是该看看美联储这波钱你还敢印吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>如果没入的可以在下周一考虑入一些,现在没跑的,其实也不用太恐慌,美元指数下到92点多了,是该看看美联储这波钱你还敢印吗","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$如果没入的可以在下周一考虑入一些,现在没跑的,其实也不用太恐慌,美元指数下到92点多了,是该看看美联储这波钱你还敢印吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945569914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544082811133558","authorId":"3544082811133558","name":"大家都是读书人20313","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecbf3ef0b12f086c26217fd8f6c79b3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544082811133558","authorIdStr":"3544082811133558"},"content":"您好,请教一下,92的dxy美元指数,和历史上哪些时期类似呢?当时是怎么处理,战争还是缩表?","text":"您好,请教一下,92的dxy美元指数,和历史上哪些时期类似呢?当时是怎么处理,战争还是缩表?","html":"您好,请教一下,92的dxy美元指数,和历史上哪些时期类似呢?当时是怎么处理,战争还是缩表?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945362418,"gmtCreate":1596461616134,"gmtModify":1704212258880,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说实话很难,除非出现刚印完钱,结果股市暴跌的情况","listText":"说实话很难,除非出现刚印完钱,结果股市暴跌的情况","text":"说实话很难,除非出现刚印完钱,结果股市暴跌的情况","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945362418","repostId":"1193900324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193900324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1596459530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193900324?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-03 20:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"47年股市老兵:美股两年内或暴跌80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193900324","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师亨特(David Hunter)认为,目前全球经济正在经历一场可怕的“大破灭”,将分为两个阶段。根据亨特的预期,第二阶段将在今年年底或者","content":"<p><i>Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师亨特(David Hunter)认为,目前全球经济正在经历一场可怕的“大破灭”,将分为两个阶段。根据亨特的预期,第二阶段将在今年年底或者明年年初开始,比当下正在进行的第一阶段要“急剧得多也深重得多”,而这就意味着美股在该阶段当中将受到最高80%的损失。与此同时,由于史无前例的刺激和通货膨胀压力,金价在这个十年之内将涨至1万美元,甚至更高。</i></p>\n<p>这位已经在业界浸淫47年的超级老兵近期接受媒体采访时坦言:“我认为我们现在已经处在了大破灭当中。我在这里所谓的‘破灭’,意思是说这局面要比普通的衰退规模更严重,更有破坏力,但又没有萧条那么旷日持久。”</p>\n<p>在亨特看来,这场灾难将分为两个阶段,第一阶段是最初的冲击和短命的复苏,而第二个阶段就是“急剧得多也深重得多”的下滑了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1833b17e40cc399298053cba21b56a3d\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"234\"></p>\n<p>目前正在上演的,当然是第一阶段。在疫情突发,造成经济全面溃退之后,近期的各种经济数据虽然整体而言依然呈现疲软态势,但是确实是在逐渐走出谷底了。</p>\n<p>然而根据亨特的解读,这些并不值得高兴,因为这些也就意味着第二阶段正在日益临近,只有在经历了那一轮痛苦的洗礼后,全球经济才能真正看到曙光。</p>\n<p>换言之,这些现在渐次好转的指标,几乎注定将要再次大举恶化。他解释说,当下靠着各国央行和政府拼命刺激支撑的经济复苏,其实是严重失衡的,许多需要得到帮助的经济部门和因素并没有得到真正的支持,因此也注定是不能持久的。</p>\n<p>“也许是今年年底,也许是明年年初,我们就将结束这一轮反弹,再度进入下行通道。我认为,在第二阶段当中,我们将遇到更多的偿付能力危机。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4738e71de49822fdecb301188a4256a9\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"234\"></p>\n<p>亨特的这番偿付危机预言很容易就会让人联想到另外一位市场老兵的观念。著名分析师、投资人胡斯曼(John Hussman)曾经先后准确预测到了互联网泡沫破灭和全球金融危机,他近年以来一直都在重复着崩盘的预测。不久前的一份研究报告当中,他附上了上面这张图表,清楚地展现了企业破产急剧窜升的势头。胡斯曼指出,偿付问题就是追随着过度发债和过度杠杆化的脚步而产生的,这后两者也正是亨特一直高度关注的因素,在他看来,这一切正是灾难的绝佳前奏。</p>\n<p>“我们的债务水平现在已经远远超出了我们的控制能力。”亨特感叹,“一旦遇到不测,这些杠杆实际上是可以将必然到来的经济冲击放大不知多少倍的。”</p>\n<p>在亨特看来,这麻烦还将造成一系列深远的影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d4aa9c41f38a03174d602b409d5322\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"234\"></p>\n<p>亨特认为,股市未来的危机就在于,除了前面提到的这个超级大利空之外,股市自己还将以贪婪自戕——经历一场疯狂的融涨,冲上历史新高,为戏剧性暴跌奠定基础。他解释说,根本环境已经严重恶化,市场迟早有一天会突然醒悟,而对这一前景,投资者还没有留意到,然后再加上规模惊人的刺激,涨势便也就成为了顺理成章的产物。</p>\n<p>“因此,我相信,在未来几个月时间当中,我们将目睹……我一直以来都预测说标普500指数将涨至4200点,甚至是4500点——这一目标今年年内就将达成,我觉得很可能在秋季就可以了。”他的判断是,“所谓融涨,就是说其轨迹将极为惊人,比起之前走出3月低点的涨势,更加接近直线。”</p>\n<p>当投资者的乐观达到无以复加,市场进一步上行的动力完全耗尽,而经济依然处在深深绝望当中时,局面就将开始走向相反的方向了。虽然亨特对股市的前景看法极为悲观,但是他高度看好黄金。金价在刚刚结束的7月当中上涨了11%,创造了近八年来的最佳单月表现纪录,目前已经无限接近2000美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fec2d9593691a54292213d9e43a9fec\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"234\"></p>\n<p>“我认为,在今年结束之前,金价将来到2300美元。”他补充道,“在接下来的大破灭当中,黄金预计也将和所有其他资产一样,受到价格冲击。不过,虽然我预计股市在第二阶段将下跌80%,进入极端可怕的熊市,但是黄金和黄金公司的股票,相对之下只是会适度盘整,比如下跌30%或者35%左右。”</p>\n<p>亨特这番预测背后的逻辑其实并不复杂——史无前例的刺激将导致通货膨胀大举抬升,而美元将因此削弱,金价自然会在这样的背景下上涨。</p>\n<p>“我相信,到这个十年结束的时候,金价将达到1万美元,当然也可能会更高。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>47年股市老兵:美股两年内或暴跌80%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n47年股市老兵:美股两年内或暴跌80%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-03 20:58 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-24FbwJ_pGxVLT_WFYvp9g><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师亨特(David Hunter)认为,目前全球经济正在经历一场可怕的“大破灭”,将分为两个阶段。根据亨特的预期,第二阶段将在今年年底或者明年年初开始,比当下正在进行的第一阶段要“急剧得多也深重得多”,而这就意味着美股在该阶段当中将受到最高80%的损失。与此同时,由于史无前例的刺激和通货膨胀压力,金价在这个十年之内将涨至1万美元,甚至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-24FbwJ_pGxVLT_WFYvp9g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419b5155e439a98adb758860d51445db","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-24FbwJ_pGxVLT_WFYvp9g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193900324","content_text":"Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师亨特(David Hunter)认为,目前全球经济正在经历一场可怕的“大破灭”,将分为两个阶段。根据亨特的预期,第二阶段将在今年年底或者明年年初开始,比当下正在进行的第一阶段要“急剧得多也深重得多”,而这就意味着美股在该阶段当中将受到最高80%的损失。与此同时,由于史无前例的刺激和通货膨胀压力,金价在这个十年之内将涨至1万美元,甚至更高。\n这位已经在业界浸淫47年的超级老兵近期接受媒体采访时坦言:“我认为我们现在已经处在了大破灭当中。我在这里所谓的‘破灭’,意思是说这局面要比普通的衰退规模更严重,更有破坏力,但又没有萧条那么旷日持久。”\n在亨特看来,这场灾难将分为两个阶段,第一阶段是最初的冲击和短命的复苏,而第二个阶段就是“急剧得多也深重得多”的下滑了。\n\n目前正在上演的,当然是第一阶段。在疫情突发,造成经济全面溃退之后,近期的各种经济数据虽然整体而言依然呈现疲软态势,但是确实是在逐渐走出谷底了。\n然而根据亨特的解读,这些并不值得高兴,因为这些也就意味着第二阶段正在日益临近,只有在经历了那一轮痛苦的洗礼后,全球经济才能真正看到曙光。\n换言之,这些现在渐次好转的指标,几乎注定将要再次大举恶化。他解释说,当下靠着各国央行和政府拼命刺激支撑的经济复苏,其实是严重失衡的,许多需要得到帮助的经济部门和因素并没有得到真正的支持,因此也注定是不能持久的。\n“也许是今年年底,也许是明年年初,我们就将结束这一轮反弹,再度进入下行通道。我认为,在第二阶段当中,我们将遇到更多的偿付能力危机。”\n\n亨特的这番偿付危机预言很容易就会让人联想到另外一位市场老兵的观念。著名分析师、投资人胡斯曼(John Hussman)曾经先后准确预测到了互联网泡沫破灭和全球金融危机,他近年以来一直都在重复着崩盘的预测。不久前的一份研究报告当中,他附上了上面这张图表,清楚地展现了企业破产急剧窜升的势头。胡斯曼指出,偿付问题就是追随着过度发债和过度杠杆化的脚步而产生的,这后两者也正是亨特一直高度关注的因素,在他看来,这一切正是灾难的绝佳前奏。\n“我们的债务水平现在已经远远超出了我们的控制能力。”亨特感叹,“一旦遇到不测,这些杠杆实际上是可以将必然到来的经济冲击放大不知多少倍的。”\n在亨特看来,这麻烦还将造成一系列深远的影响。\n\n亨特认为,股市未来的危机就在于,除了前面提到的这个超级大利空之外,股市自己还将以贪婪自戕——经历一场疯狂的融涨,冲上历史新高,为戏剧性暴跌奠定基础。他解释说,根本环境已经严重恶化,市场迟早有一天会突然醒悟,而对这一前景,投资者还没有留意到,然后再加上规模惊人的刺激,涨势便也就成为了顺理成章的产物。\n“因此,我相信,在未来几个月时间当中,我们将目睹……我一直以来都预测说标普500指数将涨至4200点,甚至是4500点——这一目标今年年内就将达成,我觉得很可能在秋季就可以了。”他的判断是,“所谓融涨,就是说其轨迹将极为惊人,比起之前走出3月低点的涨势,更加接近直线。”\n当投资者的乐观达到无以复加,市场进一步上行的动力完全耗尽,而经济依然处在深深绝望当中时,局面就将开始走向相反的方向了。虽然亨特对股市的前景看法极为悲观,但是他高度看好黄金。金价在刚刚结束的7月当中上涨了11%,创造了近八年来的最佳单月表现纪录,目前已经无限接近2000美元。\n\n“我认为,在今年结束之前,金价将来到2300美元。”他补充道,“在接下来的大破灭当中,黄金预计也将和所有其他资产一样,受到价格冲击。不过,虽然我预计股市在第二阶段将下跌80%,进入极端可怕的熊市,但是黄金和黄金公司的股票,相对之下只是会适度盘整,比如下跌30%或者35%左右。”\n亨特这番预测背后的逻辑其实并不复杂——史无前例的刺激将导致通货膨胀大举抬升,而美元将因此削弱,金价自然会在这样的背景下上涨。\n“我相信,到这个十年结束的时候,金价将达到1万美元,当然也可能会更高。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945022594,"gmtCreate":1596338260518,"gmtModify":1704211999233,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有一天美联储印完钱,股市结果不涨反跌这时候,鲍威尔就心态炸了","listText":"有一天美联储印完钱,股市结果不涨反跌这时候,鲍威尔就心态炸了","text":"有一天美联储印完钱,股市结果不涨反跌这时候,鲍威尔就心态炸了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945022594","repostId":"1162043447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941426741,"gmtCreate":1594994823283,"gmtModify":1704207737936,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>其实看看老虎上面的关注数就知道这股什么样了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>其实看看老虎上面的关注数就知道这股什么样了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$其实看看老虎上面的关注数就知道这股什么样了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941426741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941662656,"gmtCreate":1594893978975,"gmtModify":1704207308199,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我想起了全职高手的那句话,只不过是从头再来罢了,有什么大不了的呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我想起了全职高手的那句话,只不过是从头再来罢了,有什么大不了的呢","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我想起了全职高手的那句话,只不过是从头再来罢了,有什么大不了的呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941662656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941124647,"gmtCreate":1594826905489,"gmtModify":1704207044256,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>大单瞬间进了好几千","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>大单瞬间进了好几千","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$大单瞬间进了好几千","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941124647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547798491035461","authorId":"3547798491035461","name":"古城有佳话","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d400da69631486882659d35e4b7c724","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547798491035461","authorIdStr":"3547798491035461"},"content":"机构这两天趁着洗盘悄悄的加仓,默默地等着财报再收割一波韭菜。而韭菜只会在现在逃跑,财报的时候又跑进来。真替韭菜们担心。","text":"机构这两天趁着洗盘悄悄的加仓,默默地等着财报再收割一波韭菜。而韭菜只会在现在逃跑,财报的时候又跑进来。真替韭菜们担心。","html":"机构这两天趁着洗盘悄悄的加仓,默默地等着财报再收割一波韭菜。而韭菜只会在现在逃跑,财报的时候又跑进来。真替韭菜们担心。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941128958,"gmtCreate":1594826552974,"gmtModify":1704207038562,"author":{"id":"3521097519220479","authorId":"3521097519220479","name":"srdstom","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521097519220479","authorIdStr":"3521097519220479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>全是小单卖的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>全是小单卖的","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$全是小单卖的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941128958","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}