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Benson_7377

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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·06-17
  这个垃圾，上周不是喊2500吗
  黄金最坏时刻已经过去？巴克莱高喊“抄底”，花旗上调目标价
  巴克莱与花旗同日喊多！黄金历经25%深度调整，美伊谅解备忘录签署在即，油价预期全面逆转，通胀逆风趋于消散。花旗将3个月目标价升至4500美元，6至12个月看涨5000美元；巴克莱断言：此轮是"价格重置"，不是牛市终结。
  黄金最坏时刻已经过去？巴克莱高喊“抄底”，花旗上调目标价
  1,090 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·02-05
  $白银/美元(XAGUSD.FOREX)$
  1,363 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·02-02
  $黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
  1,192 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·01-21
  $贵州茅台(600519)$ 垃圾，无语了
  1,369 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2025-09-23
  $两倍做多波动率指数期货ETF(UVIX)$ $联合健康(UNH)$
  法拉第未来投资Qualigen Therapeutics，支持其进入加密和Web3领域
  法拉第未来计划指派管理团队领导新的业务。
  法拉第未来投资Qualigen Therapeutics，支持其进入加密和Web3领域
  1,381 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2022-12-15
  跟她就死
  坚定看多！“木头姐”再次抄底特斯拉和Coinbase
  凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的基金周三买入了特斯拉和Coinbase的更多股份，强调了她的信念，即电动汽车和加密货币是未来的主要趋势。伍德旗下包括方舟创新ETF（ARKK）在内的所有基金当天买
  坚定看多！“木头姐”再次抄底特斯拉和Coinbase
  3,377 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2022-01-07
  大脸了，3.一股都没有
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,109 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2021-09-17
  中信不说我还想买，它发话了，肯定不能买
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,026 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2020-11-30
  $晶科能源(JKS)$sb,公布假财报日期坑人，小心再骗一次
  3,398 评论
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- Benson_7377Benson_7377
  ·2020-11-17
  $晶科能源(JKS)$这不是欺诈吗？说好的财报不发，误发人啊
  3,475 评论
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15:13","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"黄金最坏时刻已经过去？巴克莱高喊“抄底”，花旗上调目标价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643731461","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴克莱与花旗同日喊多！黄金历经25%深度调整，美伊谅解备忘录签署在即，油价预期全面逆转，通胀逆风趋于消散。花旗将3个月目标价升至4500美元，6至12个月看涨5000美元；巴克莱断言：此轮是\"价格重置\"，不是牛市终结。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>巴克莱与花旗同日喊多！黄金历经25%深度调整，美伊谅解备忘录签署在即，油价预期全面逆转，通胀逆风趋于消散。花旗将3个月目标价升至4500美元，6至12个月看涨5000美元；巴克莱断言：此轮是&#34;价格重置&#34;，不是牛市终结。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在经历长达2.5个月、幅度高达20%至25%的深度回调后，黄金正站在关键转折点上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月15日，巴克莱与花旗两大机构同日发声，前者明确喊出&#34;是时候增加黄金敞口&#34;，后者则将3个月金价目标价从4000美元/盎司上调至4500美元/盎司。两家机构的共同判断：<strong>此轮调整更像是一次价格重置，而非牛市终结。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c270acf8ca418346e5418181da7c3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">触发这一轮乐观预判的核心催化剂，是美伊两国宣布将于本周五正式签署谅解备忘录（MoU）。据花旗研究，这一事件有望推动霍尔木兹海峡贸易流于7月中下旬基本恢复正常，油市将重新聚焦疲软的供需基本面——花旗将2026年三季度至2027年布伦特原油预测分别下调至75美元、70美元和65美元/桶（此前预测为110美元、90美元和80美元/桶）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗认为，地缘政治紧张缓解后，通胀压力将趋于减轻，此前拖累金价的关键宏观逆风或将逐步消退。花旗同时维持6至12个月5000美元/盎司的看涨预测，但提示金价仍面临较大波动风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴克莱则从汇率、股票策略及衍生品三个维度全面复盘本轮下跌。该行认为，美元走强约2.5%、标普500指数涨逾10%的双重压制，叠加拥挤多头仓位集中出清，共同酿成了这场急速调整。<strong>但中期支撑完好无损：通胀居高不下、政策不确定性持续、各国央行储备多元化的战略需求，一旦地缘政治压力趋稳，上述因素将重新主导金价走向。据巴克莱估算，美国CPI每上升1个百分点，黄金价格约上涨5%，这一通胀传导机制将构成本轮反弹的核心动力。</strong></p><h2 id=\"mo-u\">美伊谅解备忘录：关键催化剂登场，油价预期全面逆转</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据花旗研究，美伊谈判的突破被视为今年最重要的大宗商品市场事件之一。花旗指出，目前市场已消化签署的消息本身，但尚未充分定价霍尔木兹海峡流量在中期持续恢复的情景——<strong>否则，当前原油价格应较现水平低约10至15美元/桶，这意味着油价仍有进一步下行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗基准情景（概率60%）为：MoU正式签署后谈判持续推进，油市到2027年将出现约400万桶/日的纸面供应盈余，原油价格届时大概率跌破70美元/桶。花旗同时设定了两个尾部情景：牛市情景（概率20%）为局势短暂缓和后再度爆发冲突；熊市情景（概率20%）为阿联酋、沙特及伊朗产能快速爬坡叠加俄乌停火协议落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>油价回落的溢出效应直接利好贵金属。</strong>花旗认为，<strong>中东冲突带来的能源通胀冲击是此前金价承压的重要根源之一——高油价推升通胀预期，进而迫使央行维持鹰派立场、压制实际利率下行空间。随着油价压力减轻，这一传导链条有望逐步反转，为金价打开上行通道。</strong></p><h2 id=\"8c7ce88f\">巴克莱：此轮调整是&#34;重置&#34;，不是终局</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据巴克莱研究，2024年1月以来黄金累计涨幅超过100%，在今年1月冲高至约5500美元/盎司后，随即经历约25%的回调，将价格拉回至2025年11月水平。巴克莱指出，考虑到此前技术面高度延伸、相对宏观因素（尤其是实际利率）存在明显超涨，本轮调整并不令人意外。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值角度看，巴克莱团队表示，<strong>金价已回归该行公允价值模型估算的约4150美元/盎司区间。该模型将美国CPI、标普500、美元指数和央行购金需求列为金价的四大核心驱动因素。今年以来，美元与股市联袂走强，对黄金构成负面压制；与此同时，部分新兴市场央行为稳定本币、在中东冲突期间出售黄金储备，带来额外卖压，进一步压低了金价。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4891c2b2bf5a739a30d43bce7a36e21\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"440\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在期权市场层面，据巴克莱衍生品策略团队，市场仓位和期权定价指标已从年初极端水平显著正常化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最值得关注的是：看涨期权隐含波动率已从年初深度溢价逆转为近十年最低水平，而看跌期权偏度则因对冲需求回升，升至近十年高位。这一结构性转变意味着，<strong>通过期权捕捉上行不对称收益的性价比已大幅提升，市场情绪的整体出清也为新一轮上行奠定了更健康的技术基础。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc01c6787f96f841de36164c2c6a152\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><h2 id=\"ff1144a9\">通胀长尾效应：金价最强力的结构支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴克莱将美国通胀视为黄金中长期走势的主导变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其模型估算，<strong>美国CPI每上升1个百分点，金价约上涨5%，这意味着中东能源冲击对CPI的累计推升效应，即便在油价最终回落后，也将以持续性通胀的形式长期嵌入金价的上行逻辑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在更宏观的结构性视角下，巴克莱认为多重长期利好仍完好无损。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其一，去美元化趋势持续演进，逐步侵蚀美元储备需求。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其二，发达市场央行长期倾向于容忍略高于目标的通胀水平，将持续侵蚀法币购买力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其三，财政赤字扩张与关税政策带来的货币贬值预期，赋予黄金超越历史相关性的额外溢价支撑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">央行购金数据同样显示，结构性需求依然稳固。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，2026年一季度央行黄金购买量（以盎司计）环比增长17%，以美元计则因金价高企环比大增38%。一季度主要买入方为波兰和乌兹别克斯坦央行，全球最大稳定币发行商Tether亦持续加仓，一季度购入12.6吨，总储备升至154吨，买入规模位居全球第四，超越多数主要央行。土耳其和俄罗斯则因稳定本币需求出现大规模净卖出。巴克莱认为，随着地缘政治紧张趋稳，此前出售黄金储备的新兴市场央行有望重启增持。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金最坏时刻已经过去？巴克莱高喊“抄底”，花旗上调目标价</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金最坏时刻已经过去？巴克莱高喊“抄底”，花旗上调目标价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-16 15:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>巴克莱与花旗同日喊多！黄金历经25%深度调整，美伊谅解备忘录签署在即，油价预期全面逆转，通胀逆风趋于消散。花旗将3个月目标价升至4500美元，6至12个月看涨5000美元；巴克莱断言：此轮是&#34;价格重置&#34;，不是牛市终结。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在经历长达2.5个月、幅度高达20%至25%的深度回调后，黄金正站在关键转折点上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月15日，巴克莱与花旗两大机构同日发声，前者明确喊出&#34;是时候增加黄金敞口&#34;，后者则将3个月金价目标价从4000美元/盎司上调至4500美元/盎司。两家机构的共同判断：<strong>此轮调整更像是一次价格重置，而非牛市终结。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c270acf8ca418346e5418181da7c3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">触发这一轮乐观预判的核心催化剂，是美伊两国宣布将于本周五正式签署谅解备忘录（MoU）。据花旗研究，这一事件有望推动霍尔木兹海峡贸易流于7月中下旬基本恢复正常，油市将重新聚焦疲软的供需基本面——花旗将2026年三季度至2027年布伦特原油预测分别下调至75美元、70美元和65美元/桶（此前预测为110美元、90美元和80美元/桶）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗认为，地缘政治紧张缓解后，通胀压力将趋于减轻，此前拖累金价的关键宏观逆风或将逐步消退。花旗同时维持6至12个月5000美元/盎司的看涨预测，但提示金价仍面临较大波动风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴克莱则从汇率、股票策略及衍生品三个维度全面复盘本轮下跌。该行认为，美元走强约2.5%、标普500指数涨逾10%的双重压制，叠加拥挤多头仓位集中出清，共同酿成了这场急速调整。<strong>但中期支撑完好无损：通胀居高不下、政策不确定性持续、各国央行储备多元化的战略需求，一旦地缘政治压力趋稳，上述因素将重新主导金价走向。据巴克莱估算，美国CPI每上升1个百分点，黄金价格约上涨5%，这一通胀传导机制将构成本轮反弹的核心动力。</strong></p><h2 id=\"mo-u\">美伊谅解备忘录：关键催化剂登场，油价预期全面逆转</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据花旗研究，美伊谈判的突破被视为今年最重要的大宗商品市场事件之一。花旗指出，目前市场已消化签署的消息本身，但尚未充分定价霍尔木兹海峡流量在中期持续恢复的情景——<strong>否则，当前原油价格应较现水平低约10至15美元/桶，这意味着油价仍有进一步下行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">花旗基准情景（概率60%）为：MoU正式签署后谈判持续推进，油市到2027年将出现约400万桶/日的纸面供应盈余，原油价格届时大概率跌破70美元/桶。花旗同时设定了两个尾部情景：牛市情景（概率20%）为局势短暂缓和后再度爆发冲突；熊市情景（概率20%）为阿联酋、沙特及伊朗产能快速爬坡叠加俄乌停火协议落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>油价回落的溢出效应直接利好贵金属。</strong>花旗认为，<strong>中东冲突带来的能源通胀冲击是此前金价承压的重要根源之一——高油价推升通胀预期，进而迫使央行维持鹰派立场、压制实际利率下行空间。随着油价压力减轻，这一传导链条有望逐步反转，为金价打开上行通道。</strong></p><h2 id=\"8c7ce88f\">巴克莱：此轮调整是&#34;重置&#34;，不是终局</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据巴克莱研究，2024年1月以来黄金累计涨幅超过100%，在今年1月冲高至约5500美元/盎司后，随即经历约25%的回调，将价格拉回至2025年11月水平。巴克莱指出，考虑到此前技术面高度延伸、相对宏观因素（尤其是实际利率）存在明显超涨，本轮调整并不令人意外。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值角度看，巴克莱团队表示，<strong>金价已回归该行公允价值模型估算的约4150美元/盎司区间。该模型将美国CPI、标普500、美元指数和央行购金需求列为金价的四大核心驱动因素。今年以来，美元与股市联袂走强，对黄金构成负面压制；与此同时，部分新兴市场央行为稳定本币、在中东冲突期间出售黄金储备，带来额外卖压，进一步压低了金价。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4891c2b2bf5a739a30d43bce7a36e21\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"440\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在期权市场层面，据巴克莱衍生品策略团队，市场仓位和期权定价指标已从年初极端水平显著正常化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最值得关注的是：看涨期权隐含波动率已从年初深度溢价逆转为近十年最低水平，而看跌期权偏度则因对冲需求回升，升至近十年高位。这一结构性转变意味着，<strong>通过期权捕捉上行不对称收益的性价比已大幅提升，市场情绪的整体出清也为新一轮上行奠定了更健康的技术基础。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc01c6787f96f841de36164c2c6a152\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><h2 id=\"ff1144a9\">通胀长尾效应：金价最强力的结构支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴克莱将美国通胀视为黄金中长期走势的主导变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其模型估算，<strong>美国CPI每上升1个百分点，金价约上涨5%，这意味着中东能源冲击对CPI的累计推升效应，即便在油价最终回落后，也将以持续性通胀的形式长期嵌入金价的上行逻辑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在更宏观的结构性视角下，巴克莱认为多重长期利好仍完好无损。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其一，去美元化趋势持续演进，逐步侵蚀美元储备需求。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其二，发达市场央行长期倾向于容忍略高于目标的通胀水平，将持续侵蚀法币购买力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其三，财政赤字扩张与关税政策带来的货币贬值预期，赋予黄金超越历史相关性的额外溢价支撑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">央行购金数据同样显示，结构性需求依然稳固。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，2026年一季度央行黄金购买量（以盎司计）环比增长17%，以美元计则因金价高企环比大增38%。一季度主要买入方为波兰和乌兹别克斯坦央行，全球最大稳定币发行商Tether亦持续加仓，一季度购入12.6吨，总储备升至154吨，买入规模位居全球第四，超越多数主要央行。土耳其和俄罗斯则因稳定本币需求出现大规模净卖出。巴克莱认为，随着地缘政治紧张趋稳，此前出售黄金储备的新兴市场央行有望重启增持。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","UYM":"基础材料指数ETF-ProShares两倍做多","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","IGLD":"FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF®","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold 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Shares ETF","BAR":"GraniteShares Gold Shares","SGDM":"Sprott Gold Miners ETF","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","KGLD":"Kurv Gold Enhanced Income ETF","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774778","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2643731461","content_text":"巴克莱与花旗同日喊多！黄金历经25%深度调整，美伊谅解备忘录签署在即，油价预期全面逆转，通胀逆风趋于消散。花旗将3个月目标价升至4500美元，6至12个月看涨5000美元；巴克莱断言：此轮是\"价格重置\"，不是牛市终结。在经历长达2.5个月、幅度高达20%至25%的深度回调后，黄金正站在关键转折点上。6月15日，巴克莱与花旗两大机构同日发声，前者明确喊出\"是时候增加黄金敞口\"，后者则将3个月金价目标价从4000美元/盎司上调至4500美元/盎司。两家机构的共同判断：此轮调整更像是一次价格重置，而非牛市终结。触发这一轮乐观预判的核心催化剂，是美伊两国宣布将于本周五正式签署谅解备忘录（MoU）。据花旗研究，这一事件有望推动霍尔木兹海峡贸易流于7月中下旬基本恢复正常，油市将重新聚焦疲软的供需基本面——花旗将2026年三季度至2027年布伦特原油预测分别下调至75美元、70美元和65美元/桶（此前预测为110美元、90美元和80美元/桶）。花旗认为，地缘政治紧张缓解后，通胀压力将趋于减轻，此前拖累金价的关键宏观逆风或将逐步消退。花旗同时维持6至12个月5000美元/盎司的看涨预测，但提示金价仍面临较大波动风险。巴克莱则从汇率、股票策略及衍生品三个维度全面复盘本轮下跌。该行认为，美元走强约2.5%、标普500指数涨逾10%的双重压制，叠加拥挤多头仓位集中出清，共同酿成了这场急速调整。但中期支撑完好无损：通胀居高不下、政策不确定性持续、各国央行储备多元化的战略需求，一旦地缘政治压力趋稳，上述因素将重新主导金价走向。据巴克莱估算，美国CPI每上升1个百分点，黄金价格约上涨5%，这一通胀传导机制将构成本轮反弹的核心动力。美伊谅解备忘录：关键催化剂登场，油价预期全面逆转据花旗研究，美伊谈判的突破被视为今年最重要的大宗商品市场事件之一。花旗指出，目前市场已消化签署的消息本身，但尚未充分定价霍尔木兹海峡流量在中期持续恢复的情景——否则，当前原油价格应较现水平低约10至15美元/桶，这意味着油价仍有进一步下行空间。花旗基准情景（概率60%）为：MoU正式签署后谈判持续推进，油市到2027年将出现约400万桶/日的纸面供应盈余，原油价格届时大概率跌破70美元/桶。花旗同时设定了两个尾部情景：牛市情景（概率20%）为局势短暂缓和后再度爆发冲突；熊市情景（概率20%）为阿联酋、沙特及伊朗产能快速爬坡叠加俄乌停火协议落地。油价回落的溢出效应直接利好贵金属。花旗认为，中东冲突带来的能源通胀冲击是此前金价承压的重要根源之一——高油价推升通胀预期，进而迫使央行维持鹰派立场、压制实际利率下行空间。随着油价压力减轻，这一传导链条有望逐步反转，为金价打开上行通道。巴克莱：此轮调整是\"重置\"，不是终局据巴克莱研究，2024年1月以来黄金累计涨幅超过100%，在今年1月冲高至约5500美元/盎司后，随即经历约25%的回调，将价格拉回至2025年11月水平。巴克莱指出，考虑到此前技术面高度延伸、相对宏观因素（尤其是实际利率）存在明显超涨，本轮调整并不令人意外。从估值角度看，巴克莱团队表示，金价已回归该行公允价值模型估算的约4150美元/盎司区间。该模型将美国CPI、标普500、美元指数和央行购金需求列为金价的四大核心驱动因素。今年以来，美元与股市联袂走强，对黄金构成负面压制；与此同时，部分新兴市场央行为稳定本币、在中东冲突期间出售黄金储备，带来额外卖压，进一步压低了金价。在期权市场层面，据巴克莱衍生品策略团队，市场仓位和期权定价指标已从年初极端水平显著正常化。最值得关注的是：看涨期权隐含波动率已从年初深度溢价逆转为近十年最低水平，而看跌期权偏度则因对冲需求回升，升至近十年高位。这一结构性转变意味着，通过期权捕捉上行不对称收益的性价比已大幅提升，市场情绪的整体出清也为新一轮上行奠定了更健康的技术基础。通胀长尾效应：金价最强力的结构支撑巴克莱将美国通胀视为黄金中长期走势的主导变量。其模型估算，美国CPI每上升1个百分点，金价约上涨5%，这意味着中东能源冲击对CPI的累计推升效应，即便在油价最终回落后，也将以持续性通胀的形式长期嵌入金价的上行逻辑。在更宏观的结构性视角下，巴克莱认为多重长期利好仍完好无损。其一，去美元化趋势持续演进，逐步侵蚀美元储备需求。其二，发达市场央行长期倾向于容忍略高于目标的通胀水平，将持续侵蚀法币购买力。其三，财政赤字扩张与关税政策带来的货币贬值预期，赋予黄金超越历史相关性的额外溢价支撑。央行购金数据同样显示，结构性需求依然稳固。据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，2026年一季度央行黄金购买量（以盎司计）环比增长17%，以美元计则因金价高企环比大增38%。一季度主要买入方为波兰和乌兹别克斯坦央行，全球最大稳定币发行商Tether亦持续加仓，一季度购入12.6吨，总储备升至154吨，买入规模位居全球第四，超越多数主要央行。土耳其和俄罗斯则因稳定本币需求出现大规模净卖出。巴克莱认为，随着地缘政治紧张趋稳，此前出售黄金储备的新兴市场央行有望重启增持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"PICK":1.5,"IGLD":0.6,"DUST":1.5,"BAR":1.5,"GBUG":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"XME":1.5,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"BEGS":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"UYM":1.5,"GCmain":2,"PALL":1.5,"BGLD":0.6,"GLTR":1.5,"CEF":1.5,"KGLD":0.6,"JNUG":1.5,"SHNY":1.5,"MGC2602":2,"GOLY":1.5,"FGDL":1.5,"DULL":1.5,"GLDY":0.6,"OUNZ":1.5,"AAAU":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"1OZmain":2,"IAUI":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"UGL":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"DGZ":0.6,"GOAU":1.5,"MGCmain":2,"RING":1.5,"JDST":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"GLL":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"USG":1.5,"SGDM":1.5,"YGLD":0.6,"GDXJ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529532323804040,"gmtCreate":1770301238343,"gmtModify":1770301239748,"author":{"id":"3521641359092856","authorId":"3521641359092856","name":"Benson_7377","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fee9458c29cdccf10af7ec01155dc7f0","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3521641359092856","idStr":"3521641359092856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2031c4ef04369d124f9af9b021b38786\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a3048900aacd24a7da0600b9de7e1b9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>法拉第未来投资Qualigen Therapeutics，支持其进入加密和Web3领域</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1348200.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d36f0e01735c905ebf29ea428cdb83","relate_stocks":{"FFAI":"Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1348200.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1103241828","content_text":"周一， Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc股价走低，截至发稿跌近9%。Qualigen Therapeutics, Inc.盘初暴涨超180%，截至发稿涨超80%。消息面上，FFAI向Qualigen 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13:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"坚定看多！“木头姐”再次抄底特斯拉和Coinbase","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291705815","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的基金周三买入了特斯拉和Coinbase的更多股份，强调了她的信念，即电动汽车和加密货币是未来的主要趋势。伍德旗下包括方舟创新ETF（ARKK）在内的所有基金当天买","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的基金周三买入了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和Coinbase的更多股份，强调了她的信念，即电动汽车和加密货币是未来的主要趋势。</p><p>伍德旗下包括方舟创新ETF（ARKK）在内的所有基金当天买入了特斯拉近7.5万股股票，以及约29.7万股Coinbase股票，延续了自去年10月开始的逢低买入趋势。</p><p>尽管加密货币帝国FTX的崩溃引发了市场前所未有的波动，将Coinbase的股价周二推至创纪录低点，周三略有反弹，但方舟仍在继续买入Coinbase。</p><p>与此同时，特斯拉的股价处于两年多来的最低点，原因是人们担心潜在的经济衰退、美联储的鹰派立场以及创始人埃隆·马斯克继续减持该电动汽车制造商的股份。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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Wood）的基金周三买入了特斯拉和Coinbase的更多股份，强调了她的信念，即电动汽车和加密货币是未来的主要趋势。伍德旗下包括方舟创新ETF（ARKK）在内的所有基金当天买入了特斯拉近7.5万股股票，以及约29.7万股Coinbase股票，延续了自去年10月开始的逢低买入趋势。尽管加密货币帝国FTX的崩溃引发了市场前所未有的波动，将Coinbase的股价周二推至创纪录...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-15/doc-imxwttiv9772502.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c5f852a03ae51e0b36d443ba682fdf3","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" 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