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隔壁老程

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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·01-09
  这不是韭菜进场[笑哭]
  散户资金开年延续“扫货”狂潮，美股牛市之音仍在轰鸣
  华尔街分析师们表示，散户投资者的强劲看涨信心帮助稳定了近期的市场回调趋势，如果他们非常愿意继续买入股票，美国股市的涨势可能会持续下去。这种强劲的散户信心在近期回调时帮助稳定了股票市场。散户投资者们的影响力仍然在持续扩大。散户们的看涨热情还蔓延到了衍生品市场。
  散户资金开年延续“扫货”狂潮，美股牛市之音仍在轰鸣
  108 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-10-28
  $微型NQ100指数2512(MNQ2512)$ 要死了，空了一万点上来，倾家荡产
  1,259 2
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-09-20
  第一次降息缓涨，后面得历经考验了
  1,500 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-09-11
  第一。短期高点驱动是政策，等美国降息。
  1,056 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-08-19
  $东方甄选(01797)$ 暴跌，乌鸦嘴!
  1,082 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-08-06
  回调十个点吧
  1,570 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-07-18
  追高等着被套吧，空单已经开好了。
  1,489 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2025-07-10
  最后的狂欢，马上一地鸡毛。
  1,526 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2024-11-08
  $微型NQ100指数主连 2412(MNQmain)$ 空他们
  1,661 评论
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- 隔壁老程隔壁老程
  ·2024-10-29
  $微型NQ100指数主连 2412(MNQmain)$ 空2000个点。
  1,747 评论
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20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"散户资金开年延续“扫货”狂潮，美股牛市之音仍在轰鸣","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602375924","media":"智通财经","summary":"华尔街分析师们表示，散户投资者的强劲看涨信心帮助稳定了近期的市场回调趋势，如果他们非常愿意继续买入股票，美国股市的涨势可能会持续下去。这种强劲的散户信心在近期回调时帮助稳定了股票市场。散户投资者们的影响力仍然在持续扩大。散户们的看涨热情还蔓延到了衍生品市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月9日，对于怀疑美国股市在经历新一轮大涨之势后还能上涨多少的那些立场较谨慎的华尔街机构投资者们来说，屡创历史新高的美国股票市场的一个愈发占据主导性质的非机构力量仍然明显偏于看涨立场。这些自2025年4月全球股市罕见暴跌以来为美股强劲的长期牛市提供重大且持续的增量看涨驱动力的投资者们，并不像历史数据所显示的那样归功于各大机构资金，而是基本属于“散户型投资者”。</p><p>根据来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>证券业务部门(JPMorgan Securities)的资深分析师Arun Jain表示，散户交易者们在2025年创下历史纪录性的交易额以及投资收益表现后，已将“逢低买入”热潮延续到新的一年。</p><p>根据该大型<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>的统计数据，1月美股市场的前四个交易日散户们的股票买入量达到了近八个月来的第二高水平，而日常股票买入量始终高于85%的历史观察值，这显示出散户投资者们异常强烈的看涨信心。</p><p>华尔街分析师们表示，散户投资者的强劲看涨信心帮助稳定了近期的市场回调趋势，如果他们非常愿意继续买入股票，美国股市的涨势可能会持续下去。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93638dfe67978c906e92fd3d1cf7bafc\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"464\"/></p><p>这种强劲的散户信心在近期回调时帮助稳定了股票市场。考虑到这一群体在华尔街长期主导的美股市场日益增长的影响力，如果散户投资者继续大量购买股票，美国股市的牛市行情可能会强劲继续，继续演绎长期牛市轨迹，这也意味着美股大盘基准——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数飙升至1万点关口可能只是时间问题。</p><p>美股市场正见证着一代&#34;完全不一样&#34;的散户投资者：他们在市场动荡时勇敢抄底，在每次回调时都积极买入，推动市场屡创新高。有华尔街策略师表示，这一乐观的看涨现象背后，是散户投资者构成的根本性变化：新一代投资者缺乏熊市记忆，只经历了长期牛市的甜蜜。</p><h2 id=\"id_4000643900\">只要散户们想买，美股涨势就停不下来</h2><p>“市场似乎更多地由资金流动而非估值驱动，因此——只要散户投资者们仍然非常愿意并能够持续将资金投入股票市场，这对美股市场来说无疑是个非常积极的牛市信号。”来自Interactive Brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。</p><p>截至目前，这一信号依然是绿色的积极增长颜色。自2026年年初以来(累计四个交易日统计数据)，散户投资者们已买入价值约101亿美元的美国股票——主要通过交易所交易基金(即指数型ETF)——这一数据远超过去12个月每周五个交易日约65亿美元的平均股票买入水平，摩根大通的一项统计数据显示。</p><p>这波新一轮股票买入浪潮跟随了2025年散户型投资者们的无比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>表现。根据摩根大通的统计数据，2025年全年度的散户资金流入几乎是过去五年平均水平的足足两倍，相比2021年创下的前历史纪录高出17%，并比2024年更是大幅增长了近60%。仅在12月单月，散户们股票买入热潮就创下了自“4月初期解放日逢低买入狂热”以来的最大月度股票买入量。</p><p>据摩根大通的统计数据显示，类似4月的这种最为简单但也是最有效的逢低买入投资策略为散户投资者们带来了非常丰厚的投资回报，散户型资金在去年实现获利超过20%，超越了标普500指数的同期表现。最强劲收益区间的起始时间基本都出现在2025年上半年的前四个月内的逢低买入时间点，当时散户积极在三次主要的暴跌之后(DeepSeek时刻引发的美股深度修正、3月的看涨动能回撤和4月初解放日大崩盘)大举加仓，2025年散户投资者们大约有75%的单只股票敞口来自这些时间段的操作。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b438fe7774c152ef8f521eab38c006ae\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p>2025年，科技巨头们可谓主导了散户们的资金流入，比如“AI芯片霸主”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)股价全年大涨40%，以及常年来颇受散户们青睐的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)吸引了散户的热切追捧情绪。尽管从5月起单只股票交易额有所降温，但个股以及指数型ETF的散户买入规模继续保持高位，帮助整体美国股票需求维持在较高水平。</p><p>散户投资者们的影响力仍然在持续扩大。根据巴克莱全球股票策略负责人Alexander Altmann的统计数据，大约超过一半的美国家庭拥有股票类资产，且美国家庭财富中有超过30%与美国股市挂钩，可谓创历史新高。</p><p>Citadel Securities的统计数据显示，散户投资者们现在占美国股票市场累计交易量的超过20%，并占Options Clearing Corp.(美国最大规模股票衍生品清算组织)客户交易量的约60%。</p><p>不过，随着美国消费者的债务负担不断上升，散户投资者们能否继续大规模投资尚不明朗。</p><p>“长期以来，‘逢低买入’策略对大多数散户投资者都非常有效，”Sosnick表示，“合理预期，在这一策略失败之前，它仍然会是受欢迎的策略。但是就像所有‘万无一失’的策略最终都会失效一样，最终也可能因这种策略而遭遇损失。”</p><p>一个值得注意的变化是，散户投资者开始涌向贵金属领域。摩根大通分析师Jain写道，2025年，散户投资者们购买的全球最大规模黄金ETF——SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)份额比过去五年加起来的还多。该ETF基金价值在2025年上涨了约64%，受金价上涨和全球央行大量购买黄金锁推动，地缘政治风险加剧则进一步刺激了全球投资者对于黄金的需求。</p><h2 id=\"id_3758903717\">曾精准预言“夏日抛售”的华尔街大佬重磅发声：散户们愈发青睐看涨期权策略</h2><p>华尔街的金融巨头们近年来越来越密切关注散户投资者的行为与散户资金流统计数据，因为这一群体近年来堪称是所谓“meme股”和更广泛市场上涨的关键推动力。正是全球散户投资者们持续的逢低买入浪潮帮助标普500指数从4月初特朗普对等关税政策引发的剧烈抛售潮中大举反弹并屡次创下历史新高。</p><p>散户们的看涨热情还蔓延到了衍生品市场。根据Citadel Securities股票和股指衍生品战略负责人Scott Rubner的说法，假期结束之后，美国股票市场的期权交易活动迅速回升，过去36周中的35周，散户投资者们都在大举购买看涨期权。</p><p>这位曾经在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>工作过多年的华尔街明星策略师Scott Rubner，近年来准确预测美股两次重大回调，尤其是在2024年6月底美股基准指数之一——标普500指数接连创下新高时，Rubner准确预测美股将在夏末下跌。2025年2月19日标普500指数刷新历史高点当天，他再次示警散户和机构资金动能正在消退，随后该指数迅速转向下跌，在2025年4月更是重挫15%跌入技术性修正区间。</p><p>公开信息显示，Scott Rubner在高盛任职近十年，离职前担任高盛全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家。他深耕于全球资金流向研究超过20年，在华尔街以极其精准的市场时机预判而著称。</p><p>“2025年散户交易流的定义特征是持续且狂热的看涨情绪，在我们的平台上，散户型投资者全年赚取了超过200亿美元的期权投资收益，而他们带着获利的资本进入了2026年1月，”Rubner在周二给客户的报告中写道。</p><p>Citadel Securities预计，这种强劲的散户投资者们看涨动态将持续，特别是在AI算力基础设施、量子计算、人形机器人技术、自动化以及太空旅行等热门投资主题上。</p><p>来自国际大行瑞银(UBS)的策略师们预计，英伟达等芯片巨头们所主导的AI投资热潮与强劲的利润增长将支撑2026年的美股市场牛市轨迹。“我们注意到，远期市盈率倍数仅较年初略有上升，这进一步强化了一个事实：推动市场上涨的是强劲的盈利增长，而不是市场担忧的‘估值泡沫’。”该行的策略师们写道。瑞银预计，标普500指数成分股的整体每股收益在2026年将同比增长约10%，推动该指数在2026年年底达到7,700点。</p><p>来自华尔街的资深策略师Ed Yardeni也认为该指数明年将达到7,700点，并将其期待的“咆哮的2020年代”(Roaring 2020s)情景的概率设为60%。他在核心理由中提到：AI基建热潮如火如荼无疑有助于半导体股票继续推动美股牛市，加之今年通过的“One Big Beautiful Bill”(即特朗普政府主导的“大而美”法案)带来的税收利好以及AI热潮等因素。与Bartels领导的Sanctuary策略师团队的预测类似，在Yardeni看来，在2030年前后，标普500指数将达到10000点。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>散户资金开年延续“扫货”狂潮，美股牛市之音仍在轰鸣</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n散户资金开年延续“扫货”狂潮，美股牛市之音仍在轰鸣\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 20:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391191.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月9日，对于怀疑美国股市在经历新一轮大涨之势后还能上涨多少的那些立场较谨慎的华尔街机构投资者们来说，屡创历史新高的美国股票市场的一个愈发占据主导性质的非机构力量仍然明显偏于看涨立场。这些自2025年4月全球股市罕见暴跌以来为美股强劲的长期牛市提供重大且持续的增量看涨驱动力的投资者们，并不像历史数据所显示的那样归功于各大机构资金，而是基本属于“散户型投资者”。根据来自摩根大通证券业务部门(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391191.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391191.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602375924","content_text":"1月9日，对于怀疑美国股市在经历新一轮大涨之势后还能上涨多少的那些立场较谨慎的华尔街机构投资者们来说，屡创历史新高的美国股票市场的一个愈发占据主导性质的非机构力量仍然明显偏于看涨立场。这些自2025年4月全球股市罕见暴跌以来为美股强劲的长期牛市提供重大且持续的增量看涨驱动力的投资者们，并不像历史数据所显示的那样归功于各大机构资金，而是基本属于“散户型投资者”。根据来自摩根大通证券业务部门(JPMorgan Securities)的资深分析师Arun Jain表示，散户交易者们在2025年创下历史纪录性的交易额以及投资收益表现后，已将“逢低买入”热潮延续到新的一年。根据该大型金融机构的统计数据，1月美股市场的前四个交易日散户们的股票买入量达到了近八个月来的第二高水平，而日常股票买入量始终高于85%的历史观察值，这显示出散户投资者们异常强烈的看涨信心。华尔街分析师们表示，散户投资者的强劲看涨信心帮助稳定了近期的市场回调趋势，如果他们非常愿意继续买入股票，美国股市的涨势可能会持续下去。这种强劲的散户信心在近期回调时帮助稳定了股票市场。考虑到这一群体在华尔街长期主导的美股市场日益增长的影响力，如果散户投资者继续大量购买股票，美国股市的牛市行情可能会强劲继续，继续演绎长期牛市轨迹，这也意味着美股大盘基准——标普500指数飙升至1万点关口可能只是时间问题。美股市场正见证着一代\"完全不一样\"的散户投资者：他们在市场动荡时勇敢抄底，在每次回调时都积极买入，推动市场屡创新高。有华尔街策略师表示，这一乐观的看涨现象背后，是散户投资者构成的根本性变化：新一代投资者缺乏熊市记忆，只经历了长期牛市的甜蜜。只要散户们想买，美股涨势就停不下来“市场似乎更多地由资金流动而非估值驱动，因此——只要散户投资者们仍然非常愿意并能够持续将资金投入股票市场，这对美股市场来说无疑是个非常积极的牛市信号。”来自Interactive Brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。截至目前，这一信号依然是绿色的积极增长颜色。自2026年年初以来(累计四个交易日统计数据)，散户投资者们已买入价值约101亿美元的美国股票——主要通过交易所交易基金(即指数型ETF)——这一数据远超过去12个月每周五个交易日约65亿美元的平均股票买入水平，摩根大通的一项统计数据显示。这波新一轮股票买入浪潮跟随了2025年散户型投资者们的无比辉煌表现。根据摩根大通的统计数据，2025年全年度的散户资金流入几乎是过去五年平均水平的足足两倍，相比2021年创下的前历史纪录高出17%，并比2024年更是大幅增长了近60%。仅在12月单月，散户们股票买入热潮就创下了自“4月初期解放日逢低买入狂热”以来的最大月度股票买入量。据摩根大通的统计数据显示，类似4月的这种最为简单但也是最有效的逢低买入投资策略为散户投资者们带来了非常丰厚的投资回报，散户型资金在去年实现获利超过20%，超越了标普500指数的同期表现。最强劲收益区间的起始时间基本都出现在2025年上半年的前四个月内的逢低买入时间点，当时散户积极在三次主要的暴跌之后(DeepSeek时刻引发的美股深度修正、3月的看涨动能回撤和4月初解放日大崩盘)大举加仓，2025年散户投资者们大约有75%的单只股票敞口来自这些时间段的操作。2025年，科技巨头们可谓主导了散户们的资金流入，比如“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)股价全年大涨40%，以及常年来颇受散户们青睐的特斯拉(TSLA.US)吸引了散户的热切追捧情绪。尽管从5月起单只股票交易额有所降温，但个股以及指数型ETF的散户买入规模继续保持高位，帮助整体美国股票需求维持在较高水平。散户投资者们的影响力仍然在持续扩大。根据巴克莱全球股票策略负责人Alexander Altmann的统计数据，大约超过一半的美国家庭拥有股票类资产，且美国家庭财富中有超过30%与美国股市挂钩，可谓创历史新高。Citadel Securities的统计数据显示，散户投资者们现在占美国股票市场累计交易量的超过20%，并占Options Clearing Corp.(美国最大规模股票衍生品清算组织)客户交易量的约60%。不过，随着美国消费者的债务负担不断上升，散户投资者们能否继续大规模投资尚不明朗。“长期以来，‘逢低买入’策略对大多数散户投资者都非常有效，”Sosnick表示，“合理预期，在这一策略失败之前，它仍然会是受欢迎的策略。但是就像所有‘万无一失’的策略最终都会失效一样，最终也可能因这种策略而遭遇损失。”一个值得注意的变化是，散户投资者开始涌向贵金属领域。摩根大通分析师Jain写道，2025年，散户投资者们购买的全球最大规模黄金ETF——SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)份额比过去五年加起来的还多。该ETF基金价值在2025年上涨了约64%，受金价上涨和全球央行大量购买黄金锁推动，地缘政治风险加剧则进一步刺激了全球投资者对于黄金的需求。曾精准预言“夏日抛售”的华尔街大佬重磅发声：散户们愈发青睐看涨期权策略华尔街的金融巨头们近年来越来越密切关注散户投资者的行为与散户资金流统计数据，因为这一群体近年来堪称是所谓“meme股”和更广泛市场上涨的关键推动力。正是全球散户投资者们持续的逢低买入浪潮帮助标普500指数从4月初特朗普对等关税政策引发的剧烈抛售潮中大举反弹并屡次创下历史新高。散户们的看涨热情还蔓延到了衍生品市场。根据Citadel Securities股票和股指衍生品战略负责人Scott Rubner的说法，假期结束之后，美国股票市场的期权交易活动迅速回升，过去36周中的35周，散户投资者们都在大举购买看涨期权。这位曾经在高盛工作过多年的华尔街明星策略师Scott Rubner，近年来准确预测美股两次重大回调，尤其是在2024年6月底美股基准指数之一——标普500指数接连创下新高时，Rubner准确预测美股将在夏末下跌。2025年2月19日标普500指数刷新历史高点当天，他再次示警散户和机构资金动能正在消退，随后该指数迅速转向下跌，在2025年4月更是重挫15%跌入技术性修正区间。公开信息显示，Scott Rubner在高盛任职近十年，离职前担任高盛全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家。他深耕于全球资金流向研究超过20年，在华尔街以极其精准的市场时机预判而著称。“2025年散户交易流的定义特征是持续且狂热的看涨情绪，在我们的平台上，散户型投资者全年赚取了超过200亿美元的期权投资收益，而他们带着获利的资本进入了2026年1月，”Rubner在周二给客户的报告中写道。Citadel Securities预计，这种强劲的散户投资者们看涨动态将持续，特别是在AI算力基础设施、量子计算、人形机器人技术、自动化以及太空旅行等热门投资主题上。来自国际大行瑞银(UBS)的策略师们预计，英伟达等芯片巨头们所主导的AI投资热潮与强劲的利润增长将支撑2026年的美股市场牛市轨迹。“我们注意到，远期市盈率倍数仅较年初略有上升，这进一步强化了一个事实：推动市场上涨的是强劲的盈利增长，而不是市场担忧的‘估值泡沫’。”该行的策略师们写道。瑞银预计，标普500指数成分股的整体每股收益在2026年将同比增长约10%，推动该指数在2026年年底达到7,700点。来自华尔街的资深策略师Ed Yardeni也认为该指数明年将达到7,700点，并将其期待的“咆哮的2020年代”(Roaring 2020s)情景的概率设为60%。他在核心理由中提到：AI基建热潮如火如荼无疑有助于半导体股票继续推动美股牛市，加之今年通过的“One Big Beautiful 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