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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2022-11-08
  左右通吃？
  两年前做空瑞幸的幕后推手，如今公开做多：瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克！
  “瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克”在这份报告中，马自铭将瑞幸的目标价设定为46.25美元，市值目标设定为150亿美元。这一丑闻曝光后，瑞幸在4月初发布公告承认了财报造假的事实，并于6月被勒令退市。这份匿名报告称，做空行动始于瑞幸上市之初。瑞幸的造假行为导致其投资者损失了数十亿美元，震惊了监管机构，其股价在当时最高暴跌幅度达85%。
  两年前做空瑞幸的幕后推手，如今公开做多：瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克！
  2,919 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-14
  $瑞幸咖啡(LK)$还有什么妖儿仔。
  5,304 2
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-13
  $吉利德科学(GILD)$不上不下，没得搞了。
  3,248 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-11
  $二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$万花丛中一点绿。
  3,099 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-09
  $波音(BA)$后世怎么看。
  4,512 1
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-08
  $标普500ETF(SPY)$连年新高。
  2,882 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-06
  $达达集团(DADA)$你赚到钱了么。
  3,897 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-05
  $标普500ETF(SPY)$[微笑]
  3,053 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-06-04
  $标普500ETF(SPY)$下不来了。
  3,227 评论
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- king_2020king_2020
  ·2020-05-29
  $网易(NTES)$新的故事，新的起点。
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11:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两年前做空瑞幸的幕后推手，如今公开做多：瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165522916","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克”在这份报告中，马自铭将瑞幸的目标价设定为46.25美元，市值目标设定为150亿美元。这一丑闻曝光后，瑞幸在4月初发布公告承认了财报造假的事实，并于6月被勒令退市。这份匿名报告称，做空行动始于瑞幸上市之初。瑞幸的造假行为导致其投资者损失了数十亿美元，震惊了监管机构，其股价在当时最高暴跌幅度达85%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>曾重创瑞幸的始作俑者雪湖资本，如今却摇身一变成了瑞幸的大多头。</b></blockquote><p>空头也翻多，瑞幸正在开启“重生剧本”。</p><p>周一傍晚，雪湖资本创始人马自铭在某金融网站平台上公开表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>的浴火重生是“中国商业史上的奇迹”，并强调了自己的看多立场。他还附上了一份演示文件和一份长达81页的看多报告。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc67272f666a7db1b53fb8c3d58a5ad6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>马自铭周一在接受媒体采访时表示，<b>自己已经买入了瑞幸的少数股份，</b>并认为该公司的估值将大幅飙升：</p><blockquote>我从来没有想过这家公司会东山再起。许多几乎不可能的事情发生了。</blockquote><p>他补充称，<b>瑞幸目前占雪湖管理资产的15%左右。</b>但他没有透露自己持有多少瑞幸股票或其管理的资产，只说这比其在2021年初披露的30亿美元要少。</p><p>马自铭称这是“几乎不可能的事”，令投资者更为意外的是，雪湖资本正是几年前提交做空报告、揭发瑞幸财务造假丑闻的幕后推手。直到今年10月，瑞幸的股价才从当时的暴跌中慢慢反弹回来。</p><p><b>“天时、地利、人和”</b></p><p>对于看好瑞幸的具体理由，马自铭在这份长达81页的报告中用了“天时、地利、人和”来形容瑞幸的重生，他认为，三者缺一不可：</p><ul><li>“天时”是指瑞幸这种咖啡点单自提的销售模式，在疫情爆发后并没有明显受到阻碍，并且相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>作为“办公场所”的角色，瑞幸可以夺取更多市场份额；</li></ul><ul><li>“地利”是指瑞幸推出了更多更合国人胃口的咖啡产品（如黑糖波比拿铁、生椰拿铁等），扩大了目标市场。雪湖认为瑞幸还会进一步下沉到中国中小城市，这与只在大城市受欢迎的星巴克来说是非常明显的先发优势；</li></ul><ul><li>最后的“人和”，是指大钲资本（Centurium Capital）彻底重组了瑞幸的管理层。瑞幸于今年3月脱离了破产保护，现在由总部位于北京的私募股权投资公司大钲资本控股，该公司也是瑞幸的早期投资者。大钲资本已撤换了瑞幸的大部分高层管理人员，并解雇了前董事长、首席执行官和其他早期实施造假的员工。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d08f08695b849c07222d0063dcdfe8b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>马自铭说，这份报告由雪湖今年年初开始编制，于今年8月完成。他向媒体表示：“因为涉及到大量的实地工作，至少花了半年多的时间。”可以看出，马自铭为做多瑞幸可谓是劳心劳神花了不少心思。</p><p>他还表示，雪湖的研究涉及10万多名瑞幸顾客的在线消费者调查。在编写报告期间，他没有与瑞幸沟通过。</p><p><b>“瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克”</b></p><p>在这份报告中，<b>马自铭将瑞幸的目标价设定为46.25美元，市值目标设定为150亿美元。</b>瑞幸目前股价约为18美元，市值约为44亿美元。此外，预计投资瑞幸的内部收益率可以在一年半内（2022年8月-2023年12月）达到131%。</p><p>马自铭认为瑞幸的净利润将在2024年达到28亿人民币，届时市盈率约为35倍，<b>这相当于雪湖对星巴克中国业务的估值。</b></p><p>马自铭在接受媒体采访时表示：</p><blockquote><b>我买入瑞幸，因为我认为这家公司超过星巴克只是时间问题。</b></blockquote><p>从财务数据来看，瑞幸的确在缩小与星巴克之间的差距。瑞幸财报显示，今年第二季度营收增长72%至4.93亿美元，自营门店利润率30.6%，净增门店数615家；而星巴克在中国的销售额明显放缓，二季度下降了44%至5.445亿美元。</p><p>2021年，瑞幸报告了1.07亿美元的净利润，这是其有史以来的首次年度盈利。</p><p>雪湖于2021年底关闭了其亚洲基金，目前仍有两只专注于中国的基金。2021年1月，马自铭高调看涨博彩公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02282\">美高梅中国</a>，然而事实证明，此次押注并不成功。</p><p>但马自铭对这一次的赌注显然信心十足。他表示，只要瑞幸能够保持增长，就打算“数年”持有该公司的股票。<b>除了瑞幸的增长前景，他也非常看好其在美国重新上市的可能性：</b></p><blockquote>我要告诉全世界，这是一家好公司。我已经审查过了，我已经做好了功课。</blockquote><p><b>空头也翻多，瑞幸“守得云开见月明”</b></p><p>不仅马自铭自称瑞幸的重生几乎是“不可能的事”，作为旁观者，市场也对马自铭空翻多立场的转变感到不可思议。因为有传言称，雪湖资本正是几年前重创瑞幸的始作俑者。</p><p>将时间线拉回到几年前——2019年5月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>正式登陆纳斯达克。但在2020年1月底，美国知名做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters Research）公开发布了一份匿名做空报告，<b>指控瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假，伪造了高达3亿美元的营收额，门店销量、商品售价、广告费用、其他产品的净收入都被夸大。</b></p><p>这份报告并非空穴来风，而是动用了大量人力物力进行调查，论据十分充足。这一丑闻曝光后，瑞幸在4月初发布公告承认了财报造假的事实，并于6月被勒令退市。</p><p>而无论是媒体报道，还是市场传言，<b>这份匿名报告的来源都直指雪湖资本。</b></p><p>这份匿名报告称，<b>做空行动始于瑞幸上市之初。</b>雪湖资本先委托咨询公司寻找专业人士，展开对瑞幸咖啡的商业模式进行讨论，意图寻找其中存在的问题点。在拿到关于瑞幸的疑点信息后，雪湖整理了包括销售数据在内的突破口，并提交了这份做空报告。</p><p>这在当时令雪湖声名鹊起。但马自铭自己并未就是否参与了这份报告，或者参与了任何关于瑞幸的商业调查发表评论。</p><p>瑞幸的造假行为导致其投资者损失了数十亿美元，震惊了监管机构，其股价在当时最高暴跌幅度达85%。退市后，瑞幸一直在粉单市场进行交易。</p><p>不过今年以来，瑞幸股价上涨了超过80%，10月再度站上17美元关口——这也是公司当年IPO的价格。时隔两年，瑞幸股价终于艰难回升，也难怪马自铭盛赞其“浴火重生”了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c16319a698b60e41f8d6de7786f6bf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两年前做空瑞幸的幕后推手，如今公开做多：瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-08 11:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674385><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>曾重创瑞幸的始作俑者雪湖资本，如今却摇身一变成了瑞幸的大多头。空头也翻多，瑞幸正在开启“重生剧本”。周一傍晚，雪湖资本创始人马自铭在某金融网站平台上公开表示，瑞幸咖啡的浴火重生是“中国商业史上的奇迹”，并强调了自己的看多立场。他还附上了一份演示文件和一份长达81页的看多报告。马自铭周一在接受媒体采访时表示，自己已经买入了瑞幸的少数股份，并认为该公司的估值将大幅飙升：我从来没有想过这家公司会东山再起...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674385\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c6455ef80d23573ed85d61bbc37d01","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4209":"餐馆","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","SBUX":"星巴克","LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674385","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165522916","content_text":"曾重创瑞幸的始作俑者雪湖资本，如今却摇身一变成了瑞幸的大多头。空头也翻多，瑞幸正在开启“重生剧本”。周一傍晚，雪湖资本创始人马自铭在某金融网站平台上公开表示，瑞幸咖啡的浴火重生是“中国商业史上的奇迹”，并强调了自己的看多立场。他还附上了一份演示文件和一份长达81页的看多报告。马自铭周一在接受媒体采访时表示，自己已经买入了瑞幸的少数股份，并认为该公司的估值将大幅飙升：我从来没有想过这家公司会东山再起。许多几乎不可能的事情发生了。他补充称，瑞幸目前占雪湖管理资产的15%左右。但他没有透露自己持有多少瑞幸股票或其管理的资产，只说这比其在2021年初披露的30亿美元要少。马自铭称这是“几乎不可能的事”，令投资者更为意外的是，雪湖资本正是几年前提交做空报告、揭发瑞幸财务造假丑闻的幕后推手。直到今年10月，瑞幸的股价才从当时的暴跌中慢慢反弹回来。“天时、地利、人和”对于看好瑞幸的具体理由，马自铭在这份长达81页的报告中用了“天时、地利、人和”来形容瑞幸的重生，他认为，三者缺一不可：“天时”是指瑞幸这种咖啡点单自提的销售模式，在疫情爆发后并没有明显受到阻碍，并且相比星巴克作为“办公场所”的角色，瑞幸可以夺取更多市场份额；“地利”是指瑞幸推出了更多更合国人胃口的咖啡产品（如黑糖波比拿铁、生椰拿铁等），扩大了目标市场。雪湖认为瑞幸还会进一步下沉到中国中小城市，这与只在大城市受欢迎的星巴克来说是非常明显的先发优势；最后的“人和”，是指大钲资本（Centurium Capital）彻底重组了瑞幸的管理层。瑞幸于今年3月脱离了破产保护，现在由总部位于北京的私募股权投资公司大钲资本控股，该公司也是瑞幸的早期投资者。大钲资本已撤换了瑞幸的大部分高层管理人员，并解雇了前董事长、首席执行官和其他早期实施造假的员工。马自铭说，这份报告由雪湖今年年初开始编制，于今年8月完成。他向媒体表示：“因为涉及到大量的实地工作，至少花了半年多的时间。”可以看出，马自铭为做多瑞幸可谓是劳心劳神花了不少心思。他还表示，雪湖的研究涉及10万多名瑞幸顾客的在线消费者调查。在编写报告期间，他没有与瑞幸沟通过。“瑞幸将在中国超越星巴克”在这份报告中，马自铭将瑞幸的目标价设定为46.25美元，市值目标设定为150亿美元。瑞幸目前股价约为18美元，市值约为44亿美元。此外，预计投资瑞幸的内部收益率可以在一年半内（2022年8月-2023年12月）达到131%。马自铭认为瑞幸的净利润将在2024年达到28亿人民币，届时市盈率约为35倍，这相当于雪湖对星巴克中国业务的估值。马自铭在接受媒体采访时表示：我买入瑞幸，因为我认为这家公司超过星巴克只是时间问题。从财务数据来看，瑞幸的确在缩小与星巴克之间的差距。瑞幸财报显示，今年第二季度营收增长72%至4.93亿美元，自营门店利润率30.6%，净增门店数615家；而星巴克在中国的销售额明显放缓，二季度下降了44%至5.445亿美元。2021年，瑞幸报告了1.07亿美元的净利润，这是其有史以来的首次年度盈利。雪湖于2021年底关闭了其亚洲基金，目前仍有两只专注于中国的基金。2021年1月，马自铭高调看涨博彩公司美高梅中国，然而事实证明，此次押注并不成功。但马自铭对这一次的赌注显然信心十足。他表示，只要瑞幸能够保持增长，就打算“数年”持有该公司的股票。除了瑞幸的增长前景，他也非常看好其在美国重新上市的可能性：我要告诉全世界，这是一家好公司。我已经审查过了，我已经做好了功课。空头也翻多，瑞幸“守得云开见月明”不仅马自铭自称瑞幸的重生几乎是“不可能的事”，作为旁观者，市场也对马自铭空翻多立场的转变感到不可思议。因为有传言称，雪湖资本正是几年前重创瑞幸的始作俑者。将时间线拉回到几年前——2019年5月，瑞幸咖啡正式登陆纳斯达克。但在2020年1月底，美国知名做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters Research）公开发布了一份匿名做空报告，指控瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假，伪造了高达3亿美元的营收额，门店销量、商品售价、广告费用、其他产品的净收入都被夸大。这份报告并非空穴来风，而是动用了大量人力物力进行调查，论据十分充足。这一丑闻曝光后，瑞幸在4月初发布公告承认了财报造假的事实，并于6月被勒令退市。而无论是媒体报道，还是市场传言，这份匿名报告的来源都直指雪湖资本。这份匿名报告称，做空行动始于瑞幸上市之初。雪湖资本先委托咨询公司寻找专业人士，展开对瑞幸咖啡的商业模式进行讨论，意图寻找其中存在的问题点。在拿到关于瑞幸的疑点信息后，雪湖整理了包括销售数据在内的突破口，并提交了这份做空报告。这在当时令雪湖声名鹊起。但马自铭自己并未就是否参与了这份报告，或者参与了任何关于瑞幸的商业调查发表评论。瑞幸的造假行为导致其投资者损失了数十亿美元，震惊了监管机构，其股价在当时最高暴跌幅度达85%。退市后，瑞幸一直在粉单市场进行交易。不过今年以来，瑞幸股价上涨了超过80%，10月再度站上17美元关口——这也是公司当年IPO的价格。时隔两年，瑞幸股价终于艰难回升，也难怪马自铭盛赞其“浴火重生”了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LK":0.9,"LKNCY":0.9,"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952499930,"gmtCreate":1592135880520,"gmtModify":1704198138098,"author":{"id":"3531738151047302","authorId":"3531738151047302","name":"king_2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fdda13721a26a07e4e301aca74b2c41","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3531738151047302","authorIdStr":"3531738151047302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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