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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-23
Wow
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-13
Good
Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>
Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon
Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-10
Great
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-08
Oh
A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来:您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>
Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down
A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来:您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-02
Wow
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-03-01
Wow
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-02-28
Wow
Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>
Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from
Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-02-28
Ok
Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>
The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an intervi
Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>
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RLST
RLST
·
2021-02-25
Good
The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>
Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199
The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>
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RLST
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2021-02-24
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23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128328","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon","content":"<p>Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后,该公司股价走低。植物,但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说,火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉(股票代码:TSLA)没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任,该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%,至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说,这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元,交易价格高于700美元,跌至约560美元,然后反弹,周四上涨4.7%,至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上,他向全国发表讲话,重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后,将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说:“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说,联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点,并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息,但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说,这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放,因此债券收益率正在上升,给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面,道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因,较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一,它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二,高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比,利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下,投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择,这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而,周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说:“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会,野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-12 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后,该公司股价走低。植物,但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说,火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉(股票代码:TSLA)没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任,该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%,至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说,这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元,交易价格高于700美元,跌至约560美元,然后反弹,周四上涨4.7%,至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上,他向全国发表讲话,重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后,将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说:“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说,联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点,并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息,但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说,这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放,因此债券收益率正在上升,给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面,道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因,较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一,它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二,高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比,利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下,投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择,这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而,周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说:“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会,野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128328","content_text":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323507671,"gmtCreate":1615351691093,"gmtModify":1703487759015,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323507671","repostId":"1166521966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320774006,"gmtCreate":1615183915105,"gmtModify":1703485319260,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh ","listText":"Oh ","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320774006","repostId":"1174323549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174323549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615182391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174323549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来:您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174323549","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down","content":"<p>Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.</p><p><blockquote>过去三周,股市向投资者发出了严厉警告:股市也可能下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconic<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-oriented<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>尽管基准<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC),标志性<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI),并以增长为导向<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)陶醉于从2020年3月23日熊市低点破纪录的反弹,股市崩盘的条件正在准备中。</blockquote></p><p> Since emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动力,我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问,崩盘和调整是投资周期中不可避免的一部分,有些人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点,以下是每个投资者都应该牢记的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.从历史上看,席勒市盈率大于30会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述,市场并不经常给我们崩溃即将到来的迹象。到目前为止,席勒·标普500市盈率(P/E)是极少数在预测崩盘方面有着完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去10年经通货膨胀调整的收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>过去150年来,席勒市盈率平均值为16.79。截至2021年3月3日,席勒市盈率为34.59,是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹,标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟,例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然,2020年3月的崩盘与估值无关,纯粹是对千载难逢的疫情的回应。尽管如此,这并不能改变席勒市盈率前四次超过30导致标普500下跌20%至89%的事实。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说,历史表明,当席勒市盈率超过30时,下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌,重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌走势是多么普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据,自1950年初以来,广受关注的标准普尔500指数已有38次下跌至少10%。在这71年的时间里,我们平均每1.87年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>记住,平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里,修正很少。例如,1991年至1996年间没有发生过一次两位数的崩盘或调整。相比之下,过去11年中有7次出现两位数的百分比下降,另外至少有8次下降,降幅在5.8%至9.9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>纠正是健康和正常的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均回调时间长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者感到沮丧,但这里有一些好消息:大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到1950年,标普500 38次两位数百分比修正中,有24次在104个或更短的日历日(约3.5个月)内触底。在157到288个日历日之间,又过了7天才达到低谷。这意味着在过去的七十多年里,只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时,标普500自1950年以来已经花了7,168天进行修正。这意味着平均修正时间为188天,或者说刚刚超过6个月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的11年牛市进行比较,你就会明白为什么乐观是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.现代的矫正平均要短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>提示“但是等等——还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里,调整和崩盘相对短暂,但在现代,它们的时间甚至更短。我将“现代时代”定义为计算机的崛起,它极大地帮助了交易并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地用1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来,标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫,929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值,现代崩盘或调整的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者能够即时获取信息,华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被拆除。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.70%的市场最糟糕的日子之后都是最好的涨幅</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个肯定会引起人们注意的有趣统计数据是股市最好的日子和最差的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时试图逃跑,但历史表明,这是最糟糕的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年,摩根资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告,研究了标普500 20年的滚动回报。摩根大通资产管理公司特别研究了如果投资者在20年期间只错过了市场最好的几天,他们的回报会有何不同。2000年1月3日至2019年12月31日期间,如果错过20个最好的日子,就会有效地抹去6%的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标普500最好的日子和最糟糕的日子是多么接近。根据“退出市场的影响”报告,从2000年1月3日到2020年4月19日,“最糟糕的十天中有七天在第二天(摩根资产管理公司强调)之后出现了20年来的前10名回报或各自年份的前10名回报。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场,你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.长期投资者冲击1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终让这38次下跌中的每一次都成为过去。在许多情况下,只需几周或几个月就可以消除下降。出于实际目的,您何时在调整或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份,并长期持有这些股票,你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果你需要进一步的证据,Crestmont Research关于标普500的数据显示,1919年至2019年间,该指数的20年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上,在这101年的时期中,只有两个年末的平均年总回报率(即包括股息)低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有,历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只股票可能成为股市崩盘的最大赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫·加德纳和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时,倾听是值得的。毕竟,他们经营了十多年的时事通讯,<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>,使市场翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大最佳购买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切,但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明,尽早了解他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来:您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来:您需要了解的6个指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.</p><p><blockquote>过去三周,股市向投资者发出了严厉警告:股市也可能下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconic<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-oriented<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>尽管基准<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC),标志性<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI),并以增长为导向<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)陶醉于从2020年3月23日熊市低点破纪录的反弹,股市崩盘的条件正在准备中。</blockquote></p><p> Since emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动力,我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问,崩盘和调整是投资周期中不可避免的一部分,有些人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点,以下是每个投资者都应该牢记的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.从历史上看,席勒市盈率大于30会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述,市场并不经常给我们崩溃即将到来的迹象。到目前为止,席勒·标普500市盈率(P/E)是极少数在预测崩盘方面有着完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去10年经通货膨胀调整的收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>过去150年来,席勒市盈率平均值为16.79。截至2021年3月3日,席勒市盈率为34.59,是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹,标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟,例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然,2020年3月的崩盘与估值无关,纯粹是对千载难逢的疫情的回应。尽管如此,这并不能改变席勒市盈率前四次超过30导致标普500下跌20%至89%的事实。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说,历史表明,当席勒市盈率超过30时,下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌,重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌走势是多么普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据,自1950年初以来,广受关注的标准普尔500指数已有38次下跌至少10%。在这71年的时间里,我们平均每1.87年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>记住,平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里,修正很少。例如,1991年至1996年间没有发生过一次两位数的崩盘或调整。相比之下,过去11年中有7次出现两位数的百分比下降,另外至少有8次下降,降幅在5.8%至9.9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>纠正是健康和正常的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均回调时间长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者感到沮丧,但这里有一些好消息:大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到1950年,标普500 38次两位数百分比修正中,有24次在104个或更短的日历日(约3.5个月)内触底。在157到288个日历日之间,又过了7天才达到低谷。这意味着在过去的七十多年里,只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时,标普500自1950年以来已经花了7,168天进行修正。这意味着平均修正时间为188天,或者说刚刚超过6个月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的11年牛市进行比较,你就会明白为什么乐观是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.现代的矫正平均要短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>提示“但是等等——还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里,调整和崩盘相对短暂,但在现代,它们的时间甚至更短。我将“现代时代”定义为计算机的崛起,它极大地帮助了交易并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地用1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来,标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫,929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值,现代崩盘或调整的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者能够即时获取信息,华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被拆除。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.70%的市场最糟糕的日子之后都是最好的涨幅</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个肯定会引起人们注意的有趣统计数据是股市最好的日子和最差的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时试图逃跑,但历史表明,这是最糟糕的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年,摩根资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告,研究了标普500 20年的滚动回报。摩根大通资产管理公司特别研究了如果投资者在20年期间只错过了市场最好的几天,他们的回报会有何不同。2000年1月3日至2019年12月31日期间,如果错过20个最好的日子,就会有效地抹去6%的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标普500最好的日子和最糟糕的日子是多么接近。根据“退出市场的影响”报告,从2000年1月3日到2020年4月19日,“最糟糕的十天中有七天在第二天(摩根资产管理公司强调)之后出现了20年来的前10名回报或各自年份的前10名回报。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场,你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.长期投资者冲击1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终让这38次下跌中的每一次都成为过去。在许多情况下,只需几周或几个月就可以消除下降。出于实际目的,您何时在调整或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份,并长期持有这些股票,你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果你需要进一步的证据,Crestmont Research关于标普500的数据显示,1919年至2019年间,该指数的20年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上,在这101年的时期中,只有两个年末的平均年总回报率(即包括股息)低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有,历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只股票可能成为股市崩盘的最大赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫·加德纳和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时,倾听是值得的。毕竟,他们经营了十多年的时事通讯,<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>,使市场翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大最佳购买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切,但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明,尽早了解他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174323549","content_text":"Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.\nDespite the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconicDow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-orientedNasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.\nSince emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.\nWith this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.\n1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically\nAs noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.\nOver the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.\nHere's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.\nIn other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.\n2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years\nNo matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.\nAccording to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.\nKeep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.\nCorrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.\n3. The average correction is six months long\nAlthough corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.\nDating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.\nWhen we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.\n4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average\nCue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.\nEven though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.\nSince 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.\nWith the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.\n5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains\nAnother interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.\nLast year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.\nBut what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"\nIf you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.\n6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000\nI saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.\nA bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.\nIf you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.\n10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash\nWhen investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has quadrupled the market.*\nDavid and Tom just revealed what they believe are theten best buysfor investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365345601,"gmtCreate":1614698497403,"gmtModify":1703480095936,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365345601","repostId":"2116599540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362912249,"gmtCreate":1614586769981,"gmtModify":1703478487719,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362912249","repostId":"1155083909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607113,"gmtCreate":1614468057832,"gmtModify":1703477628796,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow ","listText":"Wow ","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607113","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b> shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升,较上周一度上涨近200%(但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌)。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图,预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨利差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元,目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍,需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权利差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,看涨期权价差不仅更便宜,而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响(难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求)。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是,其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升,随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股票走低,直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃(从而导致溢价崩溃)的风险。因此,即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法(尤其是在持有看跌观点时)是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关,但在这里适用于实际创建目标(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子,这里有一只蝴蝶,其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上,到期日为3月19日:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动率被压缩,则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b> shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升,较上周一度上涨近200%(但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌)。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图,预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨利差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元,目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍,需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权利差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,看涨期权价差不仅更便宜,而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响(难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求)。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是,其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升,随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股票走低,直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃(从而导致溢价崩溃)的风险。因此,即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法(尤其是在持有看跌观点时)是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关,但在这里适用于实际创建目标(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子,这里有一只蝴蝶,其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上,到期日为3月19日:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动率被压缩,则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366607921,"gmtCreate":1614468027763,"gmtModify":1703477628120,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366607921","repostId":"1103930774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103930774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103930774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103930774","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an intervi","content":"<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company <b>QuantumScape</b> (NYSE:QS) has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>(纽约证券交易所股票代码:QS)确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后,周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the electric-vehicle (EV) sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后,今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车(EV)行业作为投机性股票进行交易,希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天,QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访!金融,这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中,辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化,该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称,它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说,他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术,使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示,其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西,对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用,”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而,成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落,正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy QuantumScape Stock Rose Then Fell Thursday<blockquote>为什么QuantumScape股票周四先涨后跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.</p><p><blockquote>备受投资者关注的固态电动汽车电池制造商的首席执行官今天接受了采访。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company <b>QuantumScape</b> (NYSE:QS) has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>有抱负的固态电池技术公司股票<b>量子景观</b>(纽约证券交易所股票代码:QS)确实经历了起起落落。今天该股的走势反映了这种模式。在开盘上涨10%后,周四收盘下跌超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the electric-vehicle (EV) sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在2020年底飙升三位数后,今年迄今已下跌超过30%。该公司倾向于将电动汽车(EV)行业作为投机性股票进行交易,希望彻底改变电动汽车电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Today, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.</p><p><blockquote>今天,QuantumScape首席执行官Jagdeep Singh接受了雅虎的采访!金融,这可能导致该股交易波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> During today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的采访中,辛格重申了该公司上周在财报中与投资者分享的一些积极进展。该公司正在努力将固态电池技术商业化,该技术可以为电动汽车制造商提供更安全、充电更快、续航里程更长的电池。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称,它已经成功制造了第一个四层多层电池。这有助于确认该技术是可行的。辛格补充说,他计划在今年年底前扩大该技术,使其拥有8至10层电池。这将使该公司能够向汽车制造商提供样品电池。</blockquote></p><p> Singh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.</p><p><blockquote>辛格还表示,其他行业也对这项技术感兴趣。“像电网的固定存储这样的东西,对于电池来说是一个非常重要的应用,”辛格在采访中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Successful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.</p><p><blockquote>然而,成功的商业生产还远未得到保证。任何投资都应该完全属于投资组合的投机部分。投资者应该预计业务发展和股票都会起起落落,正如今天的涨跌所看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/25/why-quantumscape-stock-rose-then-fell-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103930774","content_text":"The CEO of the solid-state EV battery maker that has garnered much investor interest gave an interview today.\nWhat happened\nThe stock of aspiring solid-state battery technology company QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) has certainly seen ups and downs. Movement in the stock today mirrored that pattern. After an early 10% jump, shares closed more than 3% lower on Thursday.\nSo what\nShares of the company are down more than 30% year to date after a triple-digit spike in late 2020. The company tends to trade with the electric-vehicle (EV) sector as a speculative stock hoping to revolutionize EV battery technology.\nToday, QuantumScape CEO Jagdeep Singh gave an interview to Yahoo! Finance, which may have contributed to the stock's volatile trading.\nNow what\nDuring today's interview, Singh reiterated some positive developments the company shared with investors last week in its earnings release. The company is working toward commercializing the solid-state battery technology that could provide EV makers with a safer, faster-charging battery that can also deliver longer ranges.\nThe company reported it has successfully built its first multilayer battery cell with four layers. This helps confirm the technology is feasible. Singh added that he plans to scale up the technology to have an eight to 10-layer cell by the end of this year. That would allow the company to deliver sample cells to automotive manufacturers.\nSingh also said there is interest from other sectors for the technology. \"Things like stationary storage for the grid, that's a really important application for batteries,\" Singh stated in the interview.\nSuccessful commercial production is far from guaranteed, however. Any investment should be squarely in a speculative portion of a portfolio. And investors should expect ups and downs for both the business developments and the stock, as was seen with today's jump and drop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361957207,"gmtCreate":1614191930009,"gmtModify":1634550783891,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361957207","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面,后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC),曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并,周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中,市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%,今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候,我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC,并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势,您可能会注意到,特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度,其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多,今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今,每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF(最著名的ARK Innovation ETF)表现非常好,几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利,但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事,自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来,我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。(我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。):</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则:现金为王,因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此,简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了,任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的(至少,我希望他们现在已经认识到了),伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道,他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要,但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利,因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告:你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报,至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底,却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此,因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来,很明显我应该巧妙地说,‘嘿,JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了,不值得你为此付出代价,’”他说。每个月,他都考虑向他的订户提供警告,但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”:在他将一家公司加入他的名单后,该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说,‘嘿,这是一个顶部,你们都应该卖出’,这将是一个灾难性的事件,”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份,每次我都会得出结论,我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”,他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告],但另一半——新订户——会被激怒,因为他们刚刚进来,”他说。“太可怕了,我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快,他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去,我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄,”吉尔德说。“但在2001年,我们发出同样的文献,同样的邀请函,就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天,他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有,下一刻,你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元,然后你的房子突然就被留置权了,”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零,即使他们的技术和想法继续发展,并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说,CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面,后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC),曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并,周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中,市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%,今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候,我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC,并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势,您可能会注意到,特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度,其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多,今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今,每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF(最著名的ARK Innovation ETF)表现非常好,几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利,但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事,自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来,我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。(我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。):</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则:现金为王,因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此,简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了,任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的(至少,我希望他们现在已经认识到了),伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道,他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要,但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利,因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告:你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报,至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底,却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此,因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来,很明显我应该巧妙地说,‘嘿,JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了,不值得你为此付出代价,’”他说。每个月,他都考虑向他的订户提供警告,但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”:在他将一家公司加入他的名单后,该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说,‘嘿,这是一个顶部,你们都应该卖出’,这将是一个灾难性的事件,”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份,每次我都会得出结论,我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”,他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告],但另一半——新订户——会被激怒,因为他们刚刚进来,”他说。“太可怕了,我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快,他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去,我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄,”吉尔德说。“但在2001年,我们发出同样的文献,同样的邀请函,就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天,他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有,下一刻,你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元,然后你的房子突然就被留置权了,”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零,即使他们的技术和想法继续发展,并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说,CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363606459,"gmtCreate":1614130582571,"gmtModify":1634551065601,"author":{"id":"3555027716709439","authorId":"3555027716709439","name":"RLST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b7bffaca05b5c5fc2858ada8443840","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555027716709439","idStr":"3555027716709439"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363606459","repostId":"2113801076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}