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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-22
expecting a dip in the market
Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然不买。这是它卖的东西。</blockquote>
If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and
Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然不买。这是它卖的东西。</blockquote>
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-18
buy both!!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-10
Adobe good buy!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-09
alphabet is a no brainer buy!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-07
reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-06
definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-02
yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper
Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在获利了结，稍后再回来</blockquote>
Summary Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy
Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在获利了结，稍后再回来</blockquote>
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-01
Are we gonna see another cathie?
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-01
hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-07-31
Intel need alot of catchup to do
Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>
Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl
Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>
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a dip in the market ","listText":"expecting a dip in the market ","text":"expecting a dip in the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832698325","repostId":"1176431153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176431153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629604617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176431153?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然不买。这是它卖的东西。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176431153","media":"Barron's","summary":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and ","content":"<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果您一直在等待伯克希尔哈撒韦公司将其1440亿美元现金及等价物中的很大一部分用于收购，那么您将不得不等待更长的时间——也许更长。根据该公司最新的10-Q报告，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不仅在第二季度未能进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特及其投资副手托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒在此期间净卖出了约10亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司减持了三只药品股的股份——艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克——这三只药品股都是在2020年收购的。该公司还在本季度出售了700万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量削减至6000万股，目前价值32亿美元。伯克希尔哈撒韦小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了杂货商克罗格的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其最大的两个持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在8.87亿股，目前价值1,340亿美元，美国银行持有10.1亿股，价值410亿美元。截至6月30日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的总股本超过3000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度每个季度都买入了约60亿美元的股票，约占每个时期已发行股票的1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>它不是唯一的买家。这两个股票类别今年都上涨了约25%，领先于标准普尔500指数约20%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收盘下跌，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。这些天，标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均下跌近2%。周三公布的美联储货币政策委员会最新会议纪要显示，官员们就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开了激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买量——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌1.1%，至35,120.08点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%，至14,714.66点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到他们倒下</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了5月至7月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者拥有大流行储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉它们。沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等公司本季度的销售额和利润超出了华尔街的预期。（参见“购物者再次挤满购物中心和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物Motherboard报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据在网上出售，该公司股价承压。T-Mobile后来证实，该公司的一些数据遭到了未经授权的访问，包括大约5400万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司出人意料地宣布首席执行官换届。该公司现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基(Alex Gorsky)将于1月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托(Joaquin Duato)，此前他执掌该公司九年，在该公司工作了三十年，市值近5000亿美元。现年59岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易编年史</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司Lumina以71亿美元收购了致力于早期癌症检测的Grail。与美国联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.FHillebrand Group以约15亿欧元（18亿美元）现金收购……工具制造商Stanley Black&Decker同意以16亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的MTD 80%的股份。MTD以Cub Cadet和Troy-Bilt品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将通过全股票交易将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有48%的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市地从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然不买。这是它卖的东西。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然不买。这是它卖的东西。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果您一直在等待伯克希尔哈撒韦公司将其1440亿美元现金及等价物中的很大一部分用于收购，那么您将不得不等待更长的时间——也许更长。根据该公司最新的10-Q报告，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不仅在第二季度未能进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特及其投资副手托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒在此期间净卖出了约10亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司减持了三只药品股的股份——艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克——这三只药品股都是在2020年收购的。该公司还在本季度出售了700万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量削减至6000万股，目前价值32亿美元。伯克希尔哈撒韦小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了杂货商克罗格的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其最大的两个持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在8.87亿股，目前价值1,340亿美元，美国银行持有10.1亿股，价值410亿美元。截至6月30日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的总股本超过3000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度每个季度都买入了约60亿美元的股票，约占每个时期已发行股票的1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>它不是唯一的买家。这两个股票类别今年都上涨了约25%，领先于标准普尔500指数约20%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收盘下跌，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。这些天，标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均下跌近2%。周三公布的美联储货币政策委员会最新会议纪要显示，官员们就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开了激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买量——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌1.1%，至35,120.08点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%，至14,714.66点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到他们倒下</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了5月至7月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者拥有大流行储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉它们。沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等公司本季度的销售额和利润超出了华尔街的预期。（参见“购物者再次挤满购物中心和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物Motherboard报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据在网上出售，该公司股价承压。T-Mobile后来证实，该公司的一些数据遭到了未经授权的访问，包括大约5400万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司出人意料地宣布首席执行官换届。该公司现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基(Alex Gorsky)将于1月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托(Joaquin Duato)，此前他执掌该公司九年，在该公司工作了三十年，市值近5000亿美元。现年59岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易编年史</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司Lumina以71亿美元收购了致力于早期癌症检测的Grail。与美国联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.FHillebrand Group以约15亿欧元（18亿美元）现金收购……工具制造商Stanley Black&Decker同意以16亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的MTD 80%的股份。MTD以Cub Cadet和Troy-Bilt品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将通过全股票交易将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有48%的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市地从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176431153","content_text":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.\nBerkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.\nThere were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.\nAs for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.\nAnd it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.\nLast WeekPre-Tantrum\nStock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.\nShop Till They Drop\nRetailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)\nCalling All Hackers\nShares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.\nPassing the Baton\nJohnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.\nAnnals of Deal Making\nGene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833523247,"gmtCreate":1629250871889,"gmtModify":1631889238099,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy both!! ","listText":"buy both!! ","text":"buy both!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833523247","repostId":"1141614406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896873601,"gmtCreate":1628572671203,"gmtModify":1631888035655,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adobe good buy! ","listText":"Adobe good buy! ","text":"Adobe good buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896873601","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898864450,"gmtCreate":1628485426970,"gmtModify":1631889238108,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy! ","listText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy! ","text":"alphabet is a no brainer buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898864450","repostId":"2157418003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891013813,"gmtCreate":1628306413432,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt ","listText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt ","text":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891013813","repostId":"1174322042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893002499,"gmtCreate":1628218537811,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price! ","listText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price! ","text":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893002499","repostId":"1150788850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805800938,"gmtCreate":1627867905624,"gmtModify":1631889238111,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper ","listText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper ","text":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805800938","repostId":"1130492644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130492644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627867792,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130492644?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在获利了结，稍后再回来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130492644","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票高估和低估的重要指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·觉/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果（AAPL）就好像它已经找到了第二次增长。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头初露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是件好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2016年至2020年的5年平均股息率为1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为0.68%。苹果已支付股息近10年，平均收益率约为1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至75美元至85美元的范围。现在是时候在苹果利润恢复到均值之前获利了结了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>股息收益率理论是由投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁·韦斯通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广的。股息收益率理论的本质是，高质量的公司往往具有“正常”的收益率，随着市场爱上或不爱上该公司，股息收益率会波动以创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这里我们有苹果的股息收益率历史。查看平均收益率栏可以看到，苹果目前的平均收益率是自苹果首次开始支付股息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫出售。另一方面，苹果平均收益率上一次高于2%是在2016年。当时，苹果是一个令人尖叫的买家。巧合的是，同年Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)开始购买苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。看上图，你可以看到2016年到2018年股息收益率下降，这表明苹果的股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>这正是发生的事情。2018年峰值时，苹果的股息收益率为1.28%。此时，苹果5年期收益率平均值为1.86%。2018年底，苹果的股息收益率为1.97%。正如您现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人现在在想，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次不同了。我不认为这一次对苹果来说有什么不同，原因是因为苹果在大流行之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，苹果和许多其他科技公司都从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有很大不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个目标市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是值得击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远至中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。那段时间，我的教授告诉我们，身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买iPhone之前都不会去上学，因为没有它他们会丢脸。许多人负担不起电话套餐，我和我的朋友目睹了许多人拥有iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在2012年，比疫情大流行早了8年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果2021年第三季度*涵盖2021年4月至6月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步向下的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也支持了这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期的理论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者编译</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致10年复合年增长率约为10%-13%，具体取决于我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们按产品查看这些时期的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，其他类别无法弥补第二年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，2017年和2020年，其他收入来源的增长足以让苹果的总收入增加。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式很可能会重复，直到发生改变它们的事情。我没有看到这样的催化剂，目前iPhone的销量再次将苹果的收入带到创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月推出的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明2022财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕——摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者基于一些乐观的假设，“锁定”了未来10年9%的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，第二个5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果10年后的股价将为293.47美元，股息将为每股4.43美元，现有股东的收益率为1.5%，更接近他们当前的5年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为15.86%。德州仪器(TXN)和Intuit(INTU)等IT行业的其他公司的派息率分别为51%和25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将高得多。预计2031年每股收益为14美元，51%的派息意味着每股7美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息中维持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在80美元左右。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高至1.89美元。苹果在2020年的股息上花费了140亿美元，将股息提高到1.89美元将使股价达到310亿美元。这将使他们的派息率提高到34%，这是现金牛公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>预期股息I项目基于股息占经营现金流的百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我估计使用了1001.5亿美元的运营现金流，按19%计算，您将获得1.14美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，低于1%的股息收益率有可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前2021年0.63%的平均收益率成为新常态，根据我预计的股息增长，苹果的股价应该会上涨至163.49美元至180.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖出苹果，立即获利了结。超级周期将结束。稍后再来，等股息收益率较高时折价买入苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在获利了结，稍后再回来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在获利了结，稍后再回来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票高估和低估的重要指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·觉/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果（AAPL）就好像它已经找到了第二次增长。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头初露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是件好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2016年至2020年的5年平均股息率为1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为0.68%。苹果已支付股息近10年，平均收益率约为1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至75美元至85美元的范围。现在是时候在苹果利润恢复到均值之前获利了结了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>股息收益率理论是由投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁·韦斯通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广的。股息收益率理论的本质是，高质量的公司往往具有“正常”的收益率，随着市场爱上或不爱上该公司，股息收益率会波动以创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这里我们有苹果的股息收益率历史。查看平均收益率栏可以看到，苹果目前的平均收益率是自苹果首次开始支付股息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫出售。另一方面，苹果平均收益率上一次高于2%是在2016年。当时，苹果是一个令人尖叫的买家。巧合的是，同年Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)开始购买苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。看上图，你可以看到2016年到2018年股息收益率下降，这表明苹果的股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>这正是发生的事情。2018年峰值时，苹果的股息收益率为1.28%。此时，苹果5年期收益率平均值为1.86%。2018年底，苹果的股息收益率为1.97%。正如您现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人现在在想，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次不同了。我不认为这一次对苹果来说有什么不同，原因是因为苹果在大流行之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，苹果和许多其他科技公司都从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有很大不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个目标市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是值得击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远至中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。那段时间，我的教授告诉我们，身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买iPhone之前都不会去上学，因为没有它他们会丢脸。许多人负担不起电话套餐，我和我的朋友目睹了许多人拥有iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在2012年，比疫情大流行早了8年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果2021年第三季度*涵盖2021年4月至6月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步向下的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也支持了这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期的理论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者编译</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致10年复合年增长率约为10%-13%，具体取决于我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们按产品查看这些时期的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，其他类别无法弥补第二年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，2017年和2020年，其他收入来源的增长足以让苹果的总收入增加。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式很可能会重复，直到发生改变它们的事情。我没有看到这样的催化剂，目前iPhone的销量再次将苹果的收入带到创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月推出的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明2022财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕——摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者基于一些乐观的假设，“锁定”了未来10年9%的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，第二个5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果10年后的股价将为293.47美元，股息将为每股4.43美元，现有股东的收益率为1.5%，更接近他们当前的5年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为15.86%。德州仪器(TXN)和Intuit(INTU)等IT行业的其他公司的派息率分别为51%和25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将高得多。预计2031年每股收益为14美元，51%的派息意味着每股7美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息中维持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在80美元左右。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高至1.89美元。苹果在2020年的股息上花费了140亿美元，将股息提高到1.89美元将使股价达到310亿美元。这将使他们的派息率提高到34%，这是现金牛公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>预期股息I项目基于股息占经营现金流的百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我估计使用了1001.5亿美元的运营现金流，按19%计算，您将获得1.14美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，低于1%的股息收益率有可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前2021年0.63%的平均收益率成为新常态，根据我预计的股息增长，苹果的股价应该会上涨至163.49美元至180.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖出苹果，立即获利了结。超级周期将结束。稍后再来，等股息收益率较高时折价买入苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130492644","content_text":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.\n\nChristopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment\nInvestment Thesis\nInvestors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.\nApple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.\nWhy Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory\nDividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.\nSource: Seeking Alphadividend yield\nHere we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.\nThe reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.\nSource: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018\nThat is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.\nThis Time Is not different\nI know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.\nIt is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.\nSource: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*\nAs we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.\n\nAgain the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author\nThe pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.\nSource: Apple2017 10-K\nHere we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.\nSource: Apple2020 10-K\nAgain it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.\nWhen we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.\n\nPatterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.\nThe iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.\nApple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow\nInvestors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.\nAt the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.\n\nGrowth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.\nAn expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%\nApple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.\n\nAll of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.\nApple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.\nRisk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase\nBased on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.\nThe expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.\nSource: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement\nLastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.\nConclusion\nSell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802257145,"gmtCreate":1627784260487,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Are we gonna see another cathie? ","listText":"Are we gonna see another cathie? ","text":"Are we gonna see another cathie?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802257145","repostId":"1141267906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802254983,"gmtCreate":1627784189542,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential! ","listText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential! ","text":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802254983","repostId":"1146192957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802018716,"gmtCreate":1627698663935,"gmtModify":1631885479234,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556014229499035","idStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do ","listText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do ","text":"Intel need alot of catchup to do","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802018716","repostId":"1115580649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115580649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627687297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115580649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115580649","media":"Barron's","summary":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl","content":"<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，英特尔将获得世界上最令人垂涎的下一代芯片制造机器的优先权，并在2025年之前重新夺回其技术领先地位。他认为该公司的价值可能会“增加三倍、四倍”。我有五倍的兴趣，四分之一的确信。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自2月份以来担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤压这些东西的人解释了他的“节点”四年计划。事实证明，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人赛跑。“英特尔太傲慢了，”他告诉我。“我们正在迅速解决这个问题。”</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行Raymond James预测，今年英特尔将销售85%的用于所谓客户端计算的芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降七个百分点，而其竞争对手Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)也以同样快的速度上升。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势类似。评论网站Tom's Hardware和AnandTech表示，英特尔最新的服务器芯片是一个很大的改进，但AMD在性能上仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家厌恶风险，看重支持和长期经验，而不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，其在个人电脑领域的下滑已被Covid-19家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它做出了要么全有要么全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则频繁地进行渐进式改进。它通过了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，与传统光刻相比，这种技术将更多的电路塞入硅中。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>而且它对权力向台积电（TSM）等代工厂转移的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是订单接受者。其营业利润率是AMD的两倍。因此，英特尔一直在设计和制造上进行双线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们用个人机器凑合的时间更长了。像人工智能这样的高级应用程序倾向于高度并行处理，这与视频游戏没有什么不同；英伟达(NVDA)将其长期成功与数据中心的财富进行了激烈的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是鲜明的。十年前，英特尔的市值为1180亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和AMD的总和还要高出400亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司的市值加起来为1.1万亿美元。在股票回购和股息之后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过220%。但他们在标准普尔500指数上的表现本可以高出近100点，在PHLX半导体指数上的表现可以高出700点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“他们感觉到魔力又回来了，”基辛格说。但这需要的不仅仅是魔力。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，他目前将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商服务的代工厂业务。亚利桑那州正在建设两座新工厂，耗资200亿美元（不包括设备）。据报道，该公司还就以300亿美元收购GlobalFoundries进行了谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格表示，总的来说，“随着时间的推移，将会出现整合，我们将成为整合者。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在，关于这些节点：英特尔一直在使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如“10纳米”。这些数字用于指代特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意地进行测量。因此，从这里开始，它只是数字：今年晚些时候英特尔7，然后是4，然后是3。然后我们到了英特尔20A和18A，唤起了“埃时代”。一埃是十分之一纳米，那么这些名字会基于测量吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的nodemap不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速而稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用EUV。2024年，它将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争转向EUV的继任者，称为high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能提升如承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者表示，这将花费太多，结果在几年内都不会知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看多者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的11倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦周刊</i>一直看好英特尔的重塑努力。犹豫不决的投资者可能想等到11月份，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将花在设备上。EUV机器由ASML控股公司(ASML)制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的权力。看好英特尔的Needham分析师奎因·博尔顿(Quinn Bolton)表示：“就ASML想要决定代工领域的市场份额而言，它将这些制造席位分配给谁将具有相当大的影响力。”</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格表示，他现在已经拥有了所需的EUV机器。谈到high-NA以及他与ASML的合同关系，他表示，“我们将成为这些工具的第一批生产用户。”</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，ASML股票的定价是今年盈利预测的48倍，距离天堂还差一埃。EUV机器的买家也需要其他公司的设备。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经上涨了五倍，但市盈率仍为20倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快行动。但暂时搁置该股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，英特尔将获得世界上最令人垂涎的下一代芯片制造机器的优先权，并在2025年之前重新夺回其技术领先地位。他认为该公司的价值可能会“增加三倍、四倍”。我有五倍的兴趣，四分之一的确信。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自2月份以来担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤压这些东西的人解释了他的“节点”四年计划。事实证明，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人赛跑。“英特尔太傲慢了，”他告诉我。“我们正在迅速解决这个问题。”</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行Raymond James预测，今年英特尔将销售85%的用于所谓客户端计算的芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降七个百分点，而其竞争对手Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)也以同样快的速度上升。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势类似。评论网站Tom's Hardware和AnandTech表示，英特尔最新的服务器芯片是一个很大的改进，但AMD在性能上仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家厌恶风险，看重支持和长期经验，而不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，其在个人电脑领域的下滑已被Covid-19家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它做出了要么全有要么全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则频繁地进行渐进式改进。它通过了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，与传统光刻相比，这种技术将更多的电路塞入硅中。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>而且它对权力向台积电（TSM）等代工厂转移的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是订单接受者。其营业利润率是AMD的两倍。因此，英特尔一直在设计和制造上进行双线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们用个人机器凑合的时间更长了。像人工智能这样的高级应用程序倾向于高度并行处理，这与视频游戏没有什么不同；英伟达(NVDA)将其长期成功与数据中心的财富进行了激烈的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是鲜明的。十年前，英特尔的市值为1180亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和AMD的总和还要高出400亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司的市值加起来为1.1万亿美元。在股票回购和股息之后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过220%。但他们在标准普尔500指数上的表现本可以高出近100点，在PHLX半导体指数上的表现可以高出700点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“他们感觉到魔力又回来了，”基辛格说。但这需要的不仅仅是魔力。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，他目前将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商服务的代工厂业务。亚利桑那州正在建设两座新工厂，耗资200亿美元（不包括设备）。据报道，该公司还就以300亿美元收购GlobalFoundries进行了谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格表示，总的来说，“随着时间的推移，将会出现整合，我们将成为整合者。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在，关于这些节点：英特尔一直在使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如“10纳米”。这些数字用于指代特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意地进行测量。因此，从这里开始，它只是数字：今年晚些时候英特尔7，然后是4，然后是3。然后我们到了英特尔20A和18A，唤起了“埃时代”。一埃是十分之一纳米，那么这些名字会基于测量吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的nodemap不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速而稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用EUV。2024年，它将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争转向EUV的继任者，称为high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能提升如承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者表示，这将花费太多，结果在几年内都不会知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看多者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的11倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦周刊</i>一直看好英特尔的重塑努力。犹豫不决的投资者可能想等到11月份，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将花在设备上。EUV机器由ASML控股公司(ASML)制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的权力。看好英特尔的Needham分析师奎因·博尔顿(Quinn Bolton)表示：“就ASML想要决定代工领域的市场份额而言，它将这些制造席位分配给谁将具有相当大的影响力。”</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格表示，他现在已经拥有了所需的EUV机器。谈到high-NA以及他与ASML的合同关系，他表示，“我们将成为这些工具的第一批生产用户。”</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，ASML股票的定价是今年盈利预测的48倍，距离天堂还差一埃。EUV机器的买家也需要其他公司的设备。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经上涨了五倍，但市盈率仍为20倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115580649","content_text":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.\nThis past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”\nThis year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.\nThe trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.\nHow did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.\nAnd it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.\nThere have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.\nThe stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.\nA positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.\nThe CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.\nSpeaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”\nNow, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.\nThe new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.\nBulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.\nPlenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.\nGelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”\nASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}