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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-22
expecting a dip in the market
Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>
If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and
Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-18
buy both!!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-10
Adobe good buy!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-09
alphabet is a no brainer buy!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-07
reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-06
definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-02
yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper
Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>
Summary Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy
Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-01
Are we gonna see another cathie?
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-08-01
hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!
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ngckkk
ngckkk
·
2021-07-31
Intel need alot of catchup to do
Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>
Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl
Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>
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a dip in the market ","listText":"expecting a dip in the market ","text":"expecting a dip in the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832698325","repostId":"1176431153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176431153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629604617,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176431153?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176431153","media":"Barron's","summary":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and ","content":"<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直在等待伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（forBerkshire Hathaway）将其 1440 亿美元现金及等价物中的一大部分用于收购，那么你就得再等一会儿了，也许还要等很久。根据该公司最新的 10-Q 文件，伯克希尔不仅没有在第二季度进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和他的投资副手托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler）在此期间净卖出了约 10 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持了 2020 年收购的艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克三只制药股的股份。该公司还在本季度出售了 700 万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量减少至 6000 万股，目前价值 32 亿美元。伯克希尔小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了 grocerKroger 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其两大持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在 8.87 亿股，目前价值 1340 亿美元，美国银行持有 10.1 亿股，价值 410 亿美元。截至 6 月 30 日，伯克希尔的总股本持有量超过 3000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度中每个季度都买入了约 60 亿美元的股票，约占每个时期流通股的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>而且它并不是唯一的买家；这两类股票今年都上涨了约 25%，领先于标准普尔 500 指数约 20% 的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收红，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在那些日子里均下跌了近 2%。美联储货币政策委员会周三公布的最新会议纪要显示，官员们正在就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌 1.1%，至 35,120.08 点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.7%，至 14,714.66 点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到它们掉落</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了 5 月至 7 月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者手持大流行病储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉这些钱.沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等本季度的销售额和利润都超过了华尔街的预测。（参见“购物者再次涌入商场和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物 Motherboard 报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据正在网上出售，这给 ofT-Mobile UScame 带来了压力。T-Mobile 随后证实，有人未经授权访问了该公司的一些数据，其中包括大约 5400 万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司宣布出人意料地更换首席执行官。其现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基 (Alex Gorsky) 将于 1 月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托 (Joaquin Duato)，此前他已掌管这家市值近 5000 亿美元的公司长达 9 年，并在该公司工作了 30 年。现年 59 岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易年鉴</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司 Firmillumina 完成了对 Grail 的 71 亿美元收购，该公司致力于早期癌症检测。与联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.F。Hillebrand Group 以约 15 亿欧元（18 亿美元）现金收购.工具制造商 Stanley Black & Decker 同意以 16 亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的 MTD 80% 的股份。MTD 以 Cub Cadet 和 Troy-Bilt 品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将以全股票交易的形式将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有 48% 的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett’s Berkshire Still Isn’t Buying. Here’s What It Sold.<blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔仍然不买账。以下是它的售价。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直在等待伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（forBerkshire Hathaway）将其 1440 亿美元现金及等价物中的一大部分用于收购，那么你就得再等一会儿了，也许还要等很久。根据该公司最新的 10-Q 文件，伯克希尔不仅没有在第二季度进行重大收购，而且首席执行官沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）和他的投资副手托德-库姆斯（Todd Combs）和特德-韦施勒（Ted Weschler）在此期间净卖出了约 10 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持了 2020 年收购的艾伯维、百时美施贵宝和默克三只制药股的股份。该公司还在本季度出售了 700 万股通用汽车股票，将其持有量减少至 6000 万股，目前价值 32 亿美元。伯克希尔小幅削减了雪佛龙的持仓，并增持了 grocerKroger 的股份。</blockquote></p><p> There were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.</p><p><blockquote>其两大持股没有变化。该公司持有的苹果股份稳定在 8.87 亿股，目前价值 1340 亿美元，美国银行持有 10.1 亿股，价值 410 亿美元。截至 6 月 30 日，伯克希尔的总股本持有量超过 3000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> As for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.</p><p><blockquote>至于自己的股票，伯克希尔是买家，在过去两个季度中每个季度都买入了约 60 亿美元的股票，约占每个时期流通股的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> And it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.</p><p><blockquote>而且它并不是唯一的买家；这两类股票今年都上涨了约 25%，领先于标准普尔 500 指数约 20% 的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Last WeekPre-Tantrum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上周发脾气前</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.</p><p><blockquote>股指本周收红，本周大部分抛售发生在周二和周三。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在那些日子里均下跌了近 2%。美联储货币政策委员会周三公布的最新会议纪要显示，官员们正在就何时开始撤回自2020年3月以来实施的紧急刺激措施展开激烈辩论。美联储可能会在今年秋天开始减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买——目前每月总计1200亿美元。道琼斯指数本周收盘下跌 1.1%，至 35,120.08 点；标准普尔指数下跌0.6%，至4441.67点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.7%，至 14,714.66 点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shop Till They Drop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购物直到它们掉落</b></blockquote></p><p> Retailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)</p><p><blockquote>零售商公布了 5 月至 7 月第二季度的业绩。总体情况是，消费者手持大流行病储蓄和联邦刺激现金，并渴望花掉这些钱.沃尔玛、塔吉特、家得宝、梅西百货等本季度的销售额和利润都超过了华尔街的预测。（参见“购物者再次涌入商场和实体店”。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calling All Hackers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>呼叫所有黑客</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.</p><p><blockquote>在线出版物 Motherboard 报道称，声称来自无线网络运营商服务器的客户数据正在网上出售，这给 ofT-Mobile UScame 带来了压力。T-Mobile 随后证实，有人未经授权访问了该公司的一些数据，其中包括大约 5400 万人的记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passing the Baton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>传递接力棒</b></blockquote></p><p> Johnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司宣布出人意料地更换首席执行官。其现任首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基 (Alex Gorsky) 将于 1 月份将权力移交给华金·杜阿托 (Joaquin Duato)，此前他已掌管这家市值近 5000 亿美元的公司长达 9 年，并在该公司工作了 30 年。现年 59 岁的杜阿托现任强生执行委员会副主席。61岁的戈尔斯基将于明年担任新设立的执行主席一职。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Annals of Deal Making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易年鉴</b></blockquote></p><p> Gene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.</p><p><blockquote>基因测序公司 Firmillumina 完成了对 Grail 的 71 亿美元收购，该公司致力于早期癌症检测。与联邦贸易委员会的法律战仍在继续……德国物流公司德国邮政将收购海运代理公司J.F。Hillebrand Group 以约 15 亿欧元（18 亿美元）现金收购.工具制造商 Stanley Black & Decker 同意以 16 亿美元现金收购其尚未拥有的 MTD 80% 的股份。MTD 以 Cub Cadet 和 Troy-Bilt 品牌生产割草机和其他户外电动工具……必和必拓集团将以全股票交易的形式将其石油和天然气部门与伍德赛德石油公司合并，其股东持有 48% 的股份。该矿商还将把其主要股票市场上市从伦敦转移到悉尼。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-holdings-news-51629509250?siteid=yhoof2&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176431153","content_text":"If you’ve been waiting forBerkshire Hathawayto spend a decent chunk of its $144 billion in cash and equivalents on an acquisition, you’ll have to wait a little longer—maybe a lot longer. Not only did Berkshire fail to make a significant purchase in the second quarter, but CEO Warren Buffett and his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were net sellers of about $1 billion of stocks in the period, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.\nBerkshire pared its stakes in three drug stocks—AbbVie,Bristol-Myers Squibb, andMerck—all acquired in 2020. The company also sold seven millionGeneral Motorsshares in the quarter, cutting its holding to 60 million shares, now worth $3.2 billion. Berkshire trimmed itsChevronposition slightly, and added to its stake in grocerKroger.\nThere were no changes in its two largest holdings. The company’sApplestake held steady at 887 million shares, now worth $134 billion, andBank of Americastood at 1.01 billion shares, worth $41 billion. Berkshire’s total equity holdings topped $300 billion as of June 30.\nAs for its own shares, Berkshire was a buyer, scooping up about $6 billion of stock in each of the past two quarters, or about 1% of the shares outstanding in each period.\nAnd it wasn’t the only buyer; both share classes are up about 25% this year, ahead of theS&P 500index’s total return of about 20%.\nLast WeekPre-Tantrum\nStock indexes finished the week in the red, with the bulk of the week’s selling coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite,andDow Jones Industrial Averageeach sank close to 2% over those days. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee’s latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed an active debate among officials about when to begin withdrawing the emergency stimulus in place since March 2020. The Fed could begin reducing its U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases—currently running at a combined $120 billion a month—this fall. The Dow finished the week down 1.1%, at 35,120.08; the S&P lost 0.6%, to 4441.67; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, to 14,714.66.\nShop Till They Drop\nRetailers reported their results for the May-to-July period, their second quarter. The overall picture is of consumers armed with pandemic savings and federal stimulus cash—and eager to spend it.Walmart,Target,Home Depot,Macy’s,and more topped Wall Street’s forecasts for sales and profits in the quarter. (See“Shoppers Are Crowding Malls and Bricks-and-Mortar Stores Again.”)\nCalling All Hackers\nShares ofT-Mobile UScame under pressure after reports in the online publication Motherboard that customer data claiming to be from the wireless network operator’s servers was for sale online. T-Mobile later confirmed that there had been unauthorized access to some of the company’s data, including records for roughly 54 million people.\nPassing the Baton\nJohnson & Johnsonannounced a surprise CEO transition. Its current chief executive, Alex Gorsky, will hand the reins to Joaquin Duato in January after nine years in charge and three decades at the company, which has a market value of nearly $500 billion. Duato, 59, is currently the vice chairman of J&J’s executive committee. Gorsky, 61, will assume the post of executive chairman, a newly created role, next year.\nAnnals of Deal Making\nGene-sequencing firmIlluminaclosed a $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail, which works on early cancer detection. A legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission continues…German logistics firm Deutsche Post will acquire ocean freight-forwarding company J.F. Hillebrand Group for about 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in cash…ToolmakerStanley Black & Deckeragreed to pay $1.6 billion in cash for the 80% of MTD Holdings that it doesn’t already own. MTD makes lawn mowers and other outdoor power tools under the Cub Cadet and Troy-Bilt brands…BHP Groupwill merge its oil-and-gas unit withWoodside Petroleumin an all-stock deal, with its shareholders owning 48%. The miner will also shift its primary stock market listing from London to Sydney.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833523247,"gmtCreate":1629250871889,"gmtModify":1631889238099,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"buy both!! ","listText":"buy both!! ","text":"buy both!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833523247","repostId":"1141614406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896873601,"gmtCreate":1628572671203,"gmtModify":1631888035655,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Adobe good buy! ","listText":"Adobe good buy! ","text":"Adobe good buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896873601","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898864450,"gmtCreate":1628485426970,"gmtModify":1631889238108,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy! ","listText":"alphabet is a no brainer buy! ","text":"alphabet is a no brainer buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898864450","repostId":"2157418003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891013813,"gmtCreate":1628306413432,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt ","listText":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt ","text":"reopening the economy will benefit such sectors no doubt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891013813","repostId":"1174322042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893002499,"gmtCreate":1628218537811,"gmtModify":1631889238109,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price! ","listText":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price! ","text":"definitely! it's worth at least double the current price!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893002499","repostId":"1150788850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805800938,"gmtCreate":1627867905624,"gmtModify":1631889238111,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper ","listText":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper ","text":"yup, totally agree with the article. price of apple will drop so sell now and buy back cheaper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805800938","repostId":"1130492644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130492644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627867792,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130492644?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130492644","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later<blockquote>苹果：现在拿走你的利润，以后再来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li> <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li> <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股息收益率理论是健康公司股票被高估和被低估的一个很好的指标。</li><li>苹果目前的高增长是暂时的。</li><li>苹果正在成为股息贵族。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>克里斯托弗·朱/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对待苹果 (AAPL)，就好像它已经找到了第二次增长高峰。事实上，苹果现在是一头成熟的摇钱树，而不是一头崭露头角的小牛。疫情让许多公司比他们希望的更快地过渡到互联网。这对苹果来说是好事，但由于它在大流行之前就已经是一家成熟的企业，因此它将恢复到大流行前的正常增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 2016 年至 2020 年的 5 年平均股息率为 1.46%，目前苹果的股息率为 0.68%。苹果已经支付股息近 10 年了，平均收益率约为 1.4%。为了让苹果提供这样的收益率，股价必须下跌至 75-85 美元的范围。现在是时候在你的苹果利润恢复到平均水平之前拿走它了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么苹果被高估，股息收益率理论</b></blockquote></p><p> Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>投资质量趋势创始人杰拉尔丁-韦斯（Geraldine Weiss）通过一本名为《股息不要说谎》的书推广了股息收益率理论。股息收益率理论的本质是，优质公司往往具有 “正常 ”的收益率，随着市场对公司的喜爱或失去喜爱，股息收益率会波动，从而创造买卖机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法股息收益率</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果的股息收益率历史。从平均收益率一栏可以看出，苹果目前的平均收益率是苹果首次开始派息以来的最低水平。这表明苹果是一个尖叫卖家。另一方面，苹果上一次平均收益率超过 2% 是在 2016 年。当时，苹果是一个尖叫的买家。巧合的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）开始购买苹果股票的同一年。</blockquote></p><p> The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p><p><blockquote>之所以有效，是因为股息收益率是股价的乘积。从上图可以看出，从2016年到2018年，股息收益率有所下降，这表明苹果的股价有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经，2016年1月1日至2018年12月31日苹果股价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p><p><blockquote>事情正是如此。在 2018 年的巅峰时期，苹果的股息收益率为 1.28%。此时，苹果的 5 年期平均收益率为 1.86%。2018 年底，苹果的股息率为 1.97%。正如你现在所看到的，公司的股息收益率可以很好地代表公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Time Is not different</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这次也不例外</b></blockquote></p><p> I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>我知道你们中的一些人在想，嗯，股息收益率理论很好，但多亏了新冠疫情，这次情况有所不同。我不认为这次对苹果来说会有什么不同，原因是苹果在大流行病之前就已经成熟了。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和许多其他科技公司确实从疫情中受益，但苹果与Shopify、Zoom和Disney Plus有着显著的不同。也就是说，苹果已经在很大程度上渗透了其整个潜在市场。在疫情之前，我们大多数人从未听说过Zoom。我们开始在家工作，需要一个远程通信的解决方案，bam Zoom利用了这一点。在疫情之前，iPhone仍然是被击败的智能手机，拥有数千万用户的智能手机，是远在中国的必备身份象征。2012年我在中国留学了一个学期。在那段时间里，我的教授告诉我们身份象征对中国人有多重要。所有年龄段的学生在父母给他们买 iPhone 之前都不会去上学，因为没有 iPhone，他们就会丢 “面子”。许多人买不起手机套餐，我和我的朋友们目睹了许多人拥有一部iPhone只是为了炫耀。那是在 2012 年，也就是疫情爆发前 8 年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第三季度*涵盖 2021 年 4 月至 6 月*</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，苹果的大部分收入来自产品。进一步下降的产品被确定为iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、家居和配件。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone再次占据了大多数。iPhone销量的高增长率也佐证了这样一种理论，即这一轮增长是由于似乎每3年发生一次的苹果超级周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha Financials，作者整理</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>过去10年的模式是1年的强劲增长，随后是2年的缓慢增长。正如您所看到的，这导致 10 年复合年增长率约为 10% - 13%，具体取决于我们在周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2017 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们看到了2015年的超级周期，随后是2016年和2017年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Apple2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况再次发生在最近的2018年超级周期中，随后是2019年和2020年的增长下降。</blockquote></p><p> When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p><p><blockquote>当我们查看这些时期按产品划分的收入时，我们可以看到iPhone销量下降，而其他类别无法弥补明年的收入损失。在接下来的一年，即 2017 年和 2020 年，其他收入来源的增长足以推动苹果总收入的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p><p><blockquote>模式可能会重复，直到发生一些事情改变它们。我看不到这样的催化剂，目前 iPhone 的销售再次将苹果的收入推向了创纪录的水平。iPhone的销售似乎卖得很好，因为即将向5G过渡，许多iPhone用户的设备至少有3年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12于2020年10月亮相并发布。这意味着超级周期预计将随着预计在9月或10月发布的iPhone 13而结束。我相信这表明 2022 财年对于苹果股东来说将是艰难的一年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的第三幕也是最后一幕--摇钱树</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要关注苹果作为股息贵族的未来。苹果正在向更多基于服务的收入转型。这是一项利润率较高的业务，但爆炸性创新较少，这意味着增长将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前的股价，投资者根据一些乐观的假设 “锁定 ”未来 10 年 9% 的目标回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li> <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li> <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li> </ul> All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>前5年增长19.3%，后5年增长12%。</li><li>预期股息增长率为17.5%</li><li>苹果恢复到21的历史市盈率。</li></ul>所有这些加在一起意味着苹果 10 年后的股价将为 293.47 美元，股息将为每股 4.43 美元，现有股东的收益率为 1.5%，更接近他们目前的 5 年平均收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的股息支付率为 15.86%。德州仪器（TXN）和 Intuit（INTU）等 IT 行业的其他公司的派息率分别为 51% 和 25%，这表明苹果未来几年的股息将更高。预计 2031 年每股收益为 14 美元，51% 的派息意味着股息为 7 美元/sh。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇，股息增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据5年平均股息收益率和当前股息增长率，股息很可能会增加至1.03-1.14美元。为了让苹果在预计的未来股息下保持其历史收益率，苹果股价必须在 80 美元左右交易价格。苹果有可能支付并将股息提高到 1.89 美元。苹果在 2020 年的股息上花费了 140 亿美元，将股息提高到 1.89 美元将使股价增至 310 亿美元。这将把他们的派息率提高到34%，这是摇钱树公司的典型派息率。</blockquote></p><p> The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我预测的预期股息是基于股息占用的经营现金流百分比。在过去的3年里，这一比例从15%到18%不等。我使用了大约 1001.5 亿美元的运营现金流，按 19% 计算，您可以获得 1.14 美元的股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法现金流量表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p><p><blockquote>最后，股息收益率低于1%可能成为苹果的常态。如果目前 2021 年 0.63% 的平均收益率成为新常态，那么根据我预测的股息增长，苹果的股价应升至 163.49 美元至 180.95 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p><p><blockquote>卖掉苹果，现在就拿你的利润。超级周期将会结束。稍后回来，在股息收益率较高时以折扣价购买苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130492644","content_text":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.\n\nChristopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment\nInvestment Thesis\nInvestors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.\nApple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.\nWhy Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory\nDividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.\nSource: Seeking Alphadividend yield\nHere we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.\nThe reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.\nSource: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018\nThat is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.\nThis Time Is not different\nI know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.\nIt is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.\nSource: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*\nAs we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.\n\nAgain the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author\nThe pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.\nSource: Apple2017 10-K\nHere we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.\nSource: Apple2020 10-K\nAgain it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.\nWhen we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.\n\nPatterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.\nThe iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.\nApple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow\nInvestors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.\nAt the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.\n\nGrowth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.\nAn expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%\nApple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.\n\nAll of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.\nApple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.\nRisk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase\nBased on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.\nThe expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.\nSource: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement\nLastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.\nConclusion\nSell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802257145,"gmtCreate":1627784260487,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Are we gonna see another cathie? ","listText":"Are we gonna see another cathie? ","text":"Are we gonna see another cathie?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802257145","repostId":"1141267906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802254983,"gmtCreate":1627784189542,"gmtModify":1631889238116,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential! ","listText":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential! ","text":"hold SKLZ for long term! it has potential!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802254983","repostId":"1146192957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802018716,"gmtCreate":1627698663935,"gmtModify":1631885479234,"author":{"id":"3556014229499035","authorId":"3556014229499035","name":"ngckkk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e114dfd4580625c8151f1dd0b330fc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556014229499035","authorIdStr":"3556014229499035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do ","listText":"Intel need alot of catchup to do ","text":"Intel need alot of catchup to do","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802018716","repostId":"1115580649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115580649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627687297,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115580649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115580649","media":"Barron's","summary":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and recl","content":"<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel’s New CEO Vows to Move Faster. But Hold Off on the Stock for Now<blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官誓言要加快步伐。但目前暂时不要购买该股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官表示，该公司将获得下一代全球最令人垂涎的芯片制造机器的使用权，并在 2025 年前夺回其技术领先地位。他认为公司的价值可以 “翻三倍、翻四倍”。我五分好奇，四分之一信服。</blockquote></p><p> This past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”</p><p><blockquote>上周，自二月份以来一直担任英特尔（股票代码：INTC）负责人的帕特-基尔辛格（Pat Gelsinger）接受了挑战，向一个认为医生有时会挤出来的人解释他的 “节点 ”四年计划。原来，他们也是芯片制造一代，基辛格计划与他们中的许多人竞争。“他告诉我：”英特尔太傲慢了。“我们正在迅速分解这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>投资银行雷蒙德·詹姆斯预测，今年，英特尔将出售 85% 的所谓客户端计算芯片，包括笔记本电脑等。这将在两年内下降 7 个百分点，而竞争对手 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 的涨幅也一样快。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.</p><p><blockquote>服务器的趋势也类似。评论网站 Tom's Hardware 和 AnandTech 称，英特尔最新的服务器芯片有了很大的进步，但 AMD 在性能方面仍然领先。大型组织和数据中心的买家规避风险，重视支持和长期经验，不仅仅是性价比，但这不会永远减缓英特尔的份额损失。与此同时，个人电脑领域的下滑被 Covid-19 家庭办公室购买量的激增所抵消，但这种情况可能会改变。</blockquote></p><p> How did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔是如何落后的？它进行了全有或全无的技术赌注，导致了死胡同，而竞争对手则进行了频繁的、渐进式的改进。它采用了一种称为极紫外光刻（EUV）的新制造技术，该技术比传统光刻技术在硅中塞入了更多的电路。</blockquote></p><p> And it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>它对权力转向台积电（TSM）等代工厂的反应可能很慢。台积电不仅仅是接受命令。其营业利润率是 AMD 的两倍。所以，英特尔一直在设计和制造两线作战。</blockquote></p><p> There have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.</p><p><blockquote>还有其他更长的轮班。计算能力已经迁移到云端，所以我们可以用更长时间的个人机器。像人工智能这样的高级应用有利于高度并行处理，就像视频游戏一样；英伟达（NVDA）将其长期的成功转化为数据中心的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.</p><p><blockquote>股市的判断是严峻的。十年前，英特尔的市值为 1180 亿美元，比台积电、英伟达和 AMD 的总和高出 400 亿美元。现在，英特尔的市值接近2200亿美元，但其他公司加起来只有1.1万亿美元。经过股票回购和股息后，英特尔投资者在此期间的收益超过 220%。但他们的标准普尔 500 指数本可以上涨近 100 点，或者 PHLX 半导体指数本可以上涨 700 点。</blockquote></p><p> A positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的迹象是，近年来离开英特尔的顶级工程师正在回归。“盖尔辛格说：”他们感受到了魔力的回归。但这需要的不仅仅是魔法。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官表示，目前他将部分依赖外部代工厂，同时建立一个为其他芯片制造商提供服务的代工厂。亚利桑那州的两家新工厂正在建设中，耗资 200 亿美元，这还不包括设备。据报道，该公司还就以 300 亿美元收购 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，基尔辛格说：“随着时间的推移，会有整合，我们将成为整合者”。</blockquote></p><p> Now, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.</p><p><blockquote>现在来说说这些节点： 英特尔一直使用不断缩小的长度来命名它们，比如 “10 纳米”。这些数字用于指特定的晶体管部件，但在现代架构中，芯片制造商一直在随意抛出测量值。所以，从现在开始，这只是数字： 今年晚些时候的英特尔 7，然后是 4，然后是 3。然后是英特尔 20A 和 18A，让人想起 “埃时代”。埃是纳米的十分之一，那么这些名字会基于测量结果吗？不：它们只是为了营销。为了清晰起见，我给新的命名方案打了4分，从橙色到圆周率。</blockquote></p><p> The new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新的节点映射不仅仅是一个重命名。提议的芯片改进将是快速和稳定的。英特尔将从明年的批次开始采用 EUV。2024 年，该公司将进行十多年来的首次重大架构变革，并表示将在性能上赶上竞争对手。第二年，它将通过竞争，转向 EUV 的继任者 high-NA EUV。NA代表数值孔径，但它可以代表牛轧糖和杏仁，只要性能增益像承诺的那样大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.<i>Barron’s</i>has been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.</p><p><blockquote>多头和空头都认为该计划是激进的。看空者说，这将花费太多，结果要几年才能知道，而且从现在到那时，英特尔将继续失去市场份额。看涨者表示，英特尔将稳定其份额，而风险反映在其股价是今年预计收益的 11 倍，约为大盘价格的一半。<i>巴伦</i>一直在推动英特尔的重塑工作。犹豫不决的投资者可能希望等到11月，届时英特尔将召开分析师会议，并可能为其计划定价。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.</p><p><blockquote>大量资金将用于设备。EUV 机器由 ASML Holding (ASML) 制造，该公司现在拥有巨大的实力。“看好英特尔的 Needham 分析师奎因-博尔顿（Quinn Bolton）说：”如果 ASML 想要决定代工领域的市场份额，那么它将这些制造位置分配给谁将产生相当大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”</p><p><blockquote>基辛格说他现在有他需要的EUV机器。关于 high-NA 以及他与 ASML 的合同关系，他说：“我们将成为这些工具的首批生产用户”。</blockquote></p><p> ASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>正如你所想象的那样，ASML 的股价距离天堂还差一埃，是今年盈利预测的 48 倍。EUV 机器的买家也需要其他公司的齿轮。博尔顿最喜欢的股票投资者是应用材料公司（AMAT）。多年来，它的价格已经翻了五倍，但市盈率仍然是普通的 20 倍左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/intel-new-ceo-wait-to-buy-stock-51627685968?mod=mw_latestnews&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115580649","content_text":"Intelwill get dibs on the next generation of the world’s most coveted chip-making machines, and reclaim its technology lead by 2025, says the company’s new CEO. He reckons the company could “triple, quadruple” in value. I’m quintuply intrigued, and one-quarter convinced.\nThis past week, Pat Gelsinger, head of Intel (ticker: INTC) since February, rose to the challenge of explaining his four-year plan for “nodes” to a guy who thought those were things doctors sometimes squeeze. It turns out they’re also chip manufacturing generations, and Gelsinger plans to race through a lot of them. “Intel was too arrogant,” he tells me. “We’re breaking that down very rapidly.”\nThis year, Intel will sell 85% of chips for so-called client computing, including laptops and such, predicts investment bank Raymond James. That would be a seven point drop in two years, and rivalAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD) has risen as quickly.\nThe trend in servers is similar. The review sites Tom’s Hardware and AnandTech say that Intel’s latest server chips are a big improvement, but that AMD still holds a lead in performance. Buyers for big organizations and data centers are risk-averse, prizing support and long experience, not just price-to-performance ratios, but that won’t slow Intel’s share losses forever. Its slippage in personal computers, meanwhile, has been offset by a Covid-19 surge in home-office buying, but that could change.\nHow did Intel fall behind? It made all-or-nothing technology bets that led to dead ends, while rivals turned out frequent, incremental improvements. It passed over a new manufacturing technique called extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, which crams more circuits into silicon than traditional lithography.\nAnd it might have been slow to react to a power shift toward foundries, likeTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM). Taiwan Semiconductor is no mere order-taker. Its operating margins are double those of AMD. So, Intel has been waging a two-front battle on designs and manufacturing.\nThere have been other, longer shifts. Computing power has migrated to the cloud, so we make do with personal machines for longer. Advanced applications like artificial intelligence favor highly parallel processing, not unlike videogames;Nvidia(NVDA) has parlayed its long success with shoot-’em-ups into data center riches.\nThe stock market’s judgment is stark. A decade ago, Intel was worth $118 billion, $40 billion more than Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and AMD combined. Now, Intel is up to nearly $220 billion, but the others combine for $1.1 trillion. After stock buybacks and dividends, Intel investors have made more than 220% over that period. But they could have done almost 100 points better with theS&P 500index—or 700 points better with thePHLX Semiconductor Index.\nA positive sign is that top engineers who left Intel in recent years are returning. “They feel the mojo coming back,” Gelsinger says. But it will take more than mojo.\nThe CEO says he will lean in part on outside foundries for now, while building a foundry operation that will serve other chip makers. Two new Arizona plants are being constructed for $20 billion, not counting equipment. The company has also reportedly held talks to buy GlobalFoundries for $30 billion.\nSpeaking generically, Gelsinger says, “There will be consolidation over time, and we will be a consolidator.”\nNow, about those nodes: Intel has been naming them using ever-shrinking lengths, like “10 nanometer.” The numbers used to refer to a specific transistor part, but with modern architectures, chip makers have been throwing around measurements willy-nilly. So, from here, it’s just numbers: Intel 7 later this year, then 4, then 3. Then we get to Intel 20A and 18A, evoking “the angstrom era.” An angstrom is a tenth of a nanometer, so will those names be based on measurements? Nope: They’re just for marketing. I give the new naming scheme a four for clarity on a scale from orange to pi.\nThe new nodemap is more than a renaming, however. Proposed chip improvements will be rapid and steady. Intel will adopt EUV starting with next year’s batch. In 2024, it will make its first major architecture change in more than a decade—and says it will catch up with rivals on performance. The following year, it will pass the competition in a shift to EUV’s successor, called high-NA EUV. NA stands for numerical aperture, but it could stand for nougat and almonds so long as the performance gains are as big as promised.\nBulls and bears agree that the plan is aggressive. Bears say that it will cost too much, that results won’t be known for years, and that Intel will continue losing market share between now and then. Bulls say Intel will stabilize its share, and that the risks are reflected in the stock price of 11 times this year’s projected earnings, about half the broad market’s price.Barron’shas been bullishon Intel’s reinvention efforts. Investors who are undecided may want to wait until November, when Intel will hold an analyst meeting, and probably put a price on its plans.\nPlenty will be spent on equipment. The EUV machines are made byASML Holding(ASML), which now wields vast power. “To the extent that ASML wants to decide market share in the foundry space, to whom it allocates those manufacturing slots is going to be pretty influential,” says Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who is bullish on Intel.\nGelsinger says he has the EUV machines he needs for now. Of high-NA and his contractual relationship with ASML, he says, “We will be the first production users of those tools.”\nASML stock, as you might imagine, is priced an angstrom short of paradise at 48 times this year’s earnings forecast. Buyers of EUV machines need gear from other companies, too. Bolton’s favorite for stock investors isApplied Materials(AMAT). It has multiplied five times in price in as many years, but still trades at a folksy 20 or so times earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}