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各自远飏
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
05-15
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
再次接回
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
05-07
$甲骨文(ORCL)$
看看今天能不能站稳200吧
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
04-22
感觉每次财报都是大跌[无语]
又到特斯拉财报夜，市场最关心这三件事
特斯拉周三美股盘后发布一季度财报，但华尔街真正盯紧的，是Robotaxi扩张迟缓、Optimus量产悬而未决，以及一项规模堪称"天文数字"的Terafab芯片制造计划背后的估值逻辑。股价年内已跌近19%，巴克莱警告自由现金流或持续为负至2029年——这份财报，将是市场重新校准特斯拉叙事的关键时刻。
又到特斯拉财报夜，市场最关心这三件事
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
04-09
$拼多多(PDD)$
中概是真惨啊
$蔚来(NIO)$
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
2025-12-31
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
下跌通道... 惨
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
2025-12-12
$Strategy(MSTR)$
太可怕了...
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
2025-11-11
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
加回来！
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各自远飏
各自远飏
·
2025-11-07
$文远知行(WRD)$
史上买过最拉胯的 哈哈 换小马
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各自远飏
各自远飏
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2025-11-06
$文远知行(WRD)$
太垃了...
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各自远飏
各自远飏
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2025-11-04
$文远知行(WRD)$
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 再次接回","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 再次接回","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 再次接回","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564506268755016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561693688603704,"gmtCreate":1778163949517,"gmtModify":1778163951482,"author":{"id":"3557030929608626","authorId":"3557030929608626","name":"各自远飏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c0333718a26c071c8bdc19bbb0130e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557030929608626","authorIdStr":"3557030929608626"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看看今天能不能站稳200吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看看今天能不能站稳200吧","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 看看今天能不能站稳200吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561693688603704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556350071494648,"gmtCreate":1776856231971,"gmtModify":1776856234645,"author":{"id":"3557030929608626","authorId":"3557030929608626","name":"各自远飏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c0333718a26c071c8bdc19bbb0130e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557030929608626","authorIdStr":"3557030929608626"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"感觉每次财报都是大跌[无语] ","listText":"感觉每次财报都是大跌[无语] ","text":"感觉每次财报都是大跌[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556350071494648","repostId":"2629138610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629138610","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776848707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629138610?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-22 17:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"又到特斯拉财报夜，市场最关心这三件事","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629138610","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉周三美股盘后发布一季度财报，但华尔街真正盯紧的，是Robotaxi扩张迟缓、Optimus量产悬而未决，以及一项规模堪称\"天文数字\"的Terafab芯片制造计划背后的估值逻辑。股价年内已跌近19%，巴克莱警告自由现金流或持续为负至2029年——这份财报，将是市场重新校准特斯拉叙事的关键时刻。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特斯拉周三美股盘后发布一季度财报，但华尔街真正盯紧的，是Robotaxi扩张迟缓、Optimus量产悬而未决，以及一项规模堪称"天文数字"的Terafab芯片制造计划背后的估值逻辑。股价年内已跌近19%，巴克莱警告自由现金流或持续为负至2029年——这份财报，将是市场重新校准特斯拉叙事的关键时刻。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>即将于周三美股盘后（北京时间周四凌晨）发布一季度业绩，但投资者的目光已远超季度盈亏本身。在Robotaxi扩张进度迟缓、Optimus机器人量产时间表模糊，以及一项规模堪称"天文数字"的芯片制造计划横空出世的背景下，这份财报将成为市场重新校准特斯拉估值叙事的关键节点。</p><p>据FactSet数据，华尔街预计特斯拉一季度调整后每股收益为37美分，高于去年同期的27美分；营收预计为222亿美元，同比增长约15%；息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预计为32亿美元，同比增长约17%。</p><p>但特斯拉已提前披露电动车销量及储能产品部署量均低于市场预期，基本面弱势已在市场预期之内。巴克莱分析师Dan Levy在研报中指出，特斯拉股价年初至今已下跌约19%，跑输<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数逾20个百分点，反映出投资者对Robotaxi扩张进度及Optimus量产前景的失望情绪。</p><p>对市场而言，财报数字本身或许并非最大变量。Jefferies分析师Philippe Houchois在致客户的报告中警告，此次业绩"将进一步凸显愿景与执行之间的鸿沟"，并可能引发外界对融资问题的担忧；他还补充称，相关结果或将"强化"特斯拉最终与SpaceX合并的逻辑。巴克莱维持特斯拉"持股观望"评级，目标价360美元。<strong>本次财报电话会议上，管理层就资本支出、Robotaxi扩张及Optimus进展给出的指引，将是决定市场反应方向的核心变量。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2963149478\">资本支出：规模之争，悬念未解</h2><p>进入本次财报季，市场最核心的问题是：特斯拉是否会上调资本支出指引，以及Terafab等超大型项目的融资路径是否会进一步明朗。</p><p>特斯拉在上季度财报中给出的2026年资本支出指引为逾200亿美元，用于支持包括锂精炼厂、磷酸铁锂电池工厂、Cybercab、Semi卡车、休斯顿超级工厂及Optimus产线在内的六条工厂及产线建设，以及AI算力基础设施的扩充。特斯拉计划将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>H100等效GPU数量从2025年底的约12万块提升至6月底的约28万块，<strong>巴克莱估算，仅GPU采购成本即超过35亿美元，配套基础设施投入另需约25至30亿美元。</strong></p><p>然而，上述200亿美元指引明确排除了Terafab芯片工厂和太阳能工厂两大项目。3月，特斯拉发布Terafab计划，目标是建设年产1太瓦算力的芯片制造基地，规模约为当前全球AI算力总产出的50倍，SpaceX、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>及Super Micro Computer均参与其中。</p><p>Terafab若全面落地，总资本支出规模可能高达5万亿至13万亿美元；即便聚焦于近中期地面芯片生产，初期100至200吉瓦/年的产能目标也可能需要5000亿至1万亿美元投入。巴克莱认为，Terafab目前缺乏具体建设时间表和融资方案，属于"待验证的故事"；</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>方面，特斯拉计划于2028年前在美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>100吉瓦制造产能，此前有报道称特斯拉已与中国供应商就价值29亿美元的太阳能生产设备展开谈判，计划于今年8月前交付；巴克莱估算该项目资本支出至少需要300亿美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Andrew Percoco预计特斯拉全年资本支出可能增至250亿至350亿美元，并估算在210亿美元资本支出情境下，2026年自由现金流将为负84亿美元；FactSet数据显示，市场一致预期为负自由现金流超过47亿美元。</p><p>对此，GraniteShares首席执行官Will Rhind在接受MarketWatch采访时表示："即便2026年自由现金流预期持续下修，特斯拉仍拥有业内最强劲的净现金头寸和资产负债表灵活性，足以同时押注所有这些方向——这正是其估值溢价的支撑所在。"<strong>巴克莱则预计，大规模资本支出将导致特斯拉自由现金流持续为负，这一状况可能延续至2029年。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1112234613\">Robotaxi：扩张加速，但规模化仍是疑问</h2><p>Robotaxi的规模化进展，是当前驱动特斯拉估值的核心叙事，也是本次财报最受关注的议题之一。</p><p>周末，特斯拉宣布将Robotaxi服务扩展至达拉斯和休斯顿部分区域，此前该服务仅覆盖德克萨斯州奥斯汀和加州旧金山湾区。这是特斯拉自今年1月在奥斯汀启动有限无人监督服务以来，首次实现实质性地域扩张。特斯拉还计划于今年6月底前将服务扩展至至少九座城市，包括拉斯维加斯和佛罗里达州三座城市。</p><p>然而，扩张规模有限的现实与投资者预期之间的落差，已引发明显不满。众包追踪数据显示，达拉斯和休斯顿两地合计仅有4辆车辆被记录在运营中。去年7月，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克曾声称，到2025年底将向约"一半"美国人口提供Robotaxi服务；但这一目标显然未能兑现。特斯拉投资者平台上，一位持有27.5万股的投资者直接发问："为何Robotaxi网络的推进如此缓慢？"另一位股东则追问："为何距上次指引不足90天，进度就已落后？"</p><p>UBS分析师Joseph Spak在本月初的研报中表示，他预计在特斯拉目标城市中不会看到"有意义的规模化"，并维持中性评级，目标价352美元。他写道："我们相信技术在持续改善，基础设施也将逐步完善，但考虑到安全文化的重要性，特斯拉的推进速度将较为缓慢。"<strong>摩根士丹利则指出，Robotaxi服务的加速落地对于支撑特斯拉高估值"至关重要"。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_168887793\">Optimus：期待兑现，有待验证</h2><p>除Robotaxi外，Optimus机器人是特斯拉当前另一条核心增长叙事，但目前均处于"展示多于落地"的阶段，本次财报电话会议上的管理层表态将至关重要。</p><p>据Say Technologies的数据，股东在投资者平台上最关注的问题正是Optimus的时间表。一位持有220万股的投资者问道："Optimus V3何时发布？由于Model X和S生产线提前于年中停产，Optimus量产何时启动？"马斯克此前曾表示Optimus V3将于3月亮相，但最终仅公布了一段简短宣传视频，并将正式发布推迟以修复相关问题。</p><p>今年1月，他表示Optimus将于2027年底前向公众发售，量产则将于今年晚些时候在部分原用于生产电动车的产线上启动。晨星分析师Seth Goldstein对MarketWatch表示："到2028年，随着特斯拉开始从Robotaxi和机器人业务中产生收入，我们应该真正开始看到这一转变在财务数据上的体现。"</p><p><strong>巴克莱对此持谨慎态度，Optimus方面，巴克莱目前仅在模型中纳入十年内有限的销量预测。不过，巴克莱也承认，任何关于上述项目的具体进展披露，都将对股价产生正面催化作用。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2206206871\">基本面：弱势已被消化，下行风险犹存</h2><p>在三大主题之外，特斯拉核心汽车业务的基本面持续承压，尽管市场对此已有较充分预期。</p><p>巴克莱预计特斯拉一季度汽车业务毛利率（剔除监管积分、含股权激励）约为14.4%，环比下降约350个基点，主要拖累因素包括：交付量环比减少约6万辆（降幅约14%）、以及钢铁、铝、铜及贵金属等原材料成本上涨。部分抵消因素包括关税退款收益——特斯拉100%美国本土制造的特性使其有望获得IEEPA关税退款——以及定价稳定和区域销售结构改善。</p><p>在监管积分方面，巴克莱预计一季度收入约为3亿美元，低于上季度的5.42亿美元及去年同期的5.95亿美元。储能业务方面，一季度部署量为8.8吉瓦时，远低于市场预期的14.4吉瓦时，巴克莱预计该业务毛利率将从上季度的约29%降至约25%。</p><p>从全年维度看，巴克莱预计特斯拉2026年交付量约为161万辆，低于2025年的164万辆，亦低于市场一致预期的约167万辆；全年每股收益预测为1.57美元，低于市场一致预期的1.94美元。值得注意的是，市场一致预期已从一年前的3.82美元大幅下调，但Dan Levy认为下调空间尚未完全释放。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>又到特斯拉财报夜，市场最关心这三件事</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n又到特斯拉财报夜，市场最关心这三件事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-22 17:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>特斯拉周三美股盘后发布一季度财报，但华尔街真正盯紧的，是Robotaxi扩张迟缓、Optimus量产悬而未决，以及一项规模堪称"天文数字"的Terafab芯片制造计划背后的估值逻辑。股价年内已跌近19%，巴克莱警告自由现金流或持续为负至2029年——这份财报，将是市场重新校准特斯拉叙事的关键时刻。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>即将于周三美股盘后（北京时间周四凌晨）发布一季度业绩，但投资者的目光已远超季度盈亏本身。在Robotaxi扩张进度迟缓、Optimus机器人量产时间表模糊，以及一项规模堪称"天文数字"的芯片制造计划横空出世的背景下，这份财报将成为市场重新校准特斯拉估值叙事的关键节点。</p><p>据FactSet数据，华尔街预计特斯拉一季度调整后每股收益为37美分，高于去年同期的27美分；营收预计为222亿美元，同比增长约15%；息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预计为32亿美元，同比增长约17%。</p><p>但特斯拉已提前披露电动车销量及储能产品部署量均低于市场预期，基本面弱势已在市场预期之内。巴克莱分析师Dan Levy在研报中指出，特斯拉股价年初至今已下跌约19%，跑输<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数逾20个百分点，反映出投资者对Robotaxi扩张进度及Optimus量产前景的失望情绪。</p><p>对市场而言，财报数字本身或许并非最大变量。Jefferies分析师Philippe Houchois在致客户的报告中警告，此次业绩"将进一步凸显愿景与执行之间的鸿沟"，并可能引发外界对融资问题的担忧；他还补充称，相关结果或将"强化"特斯拉最终与SpaceX合并的逻辑。巴克莱维持特斯拉"持股观望"评级，目标价360美元。<strong>本次财报电话会议上，管理层就资本支出、Robotaxi扩张及Optimus进展给出的指引，将是决定市场反应方向的核心变量。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2963149478\">资本支出：规模之争，悬念未解</h2><p>进入本次财报季，市场最核心的问题是：特斯拉是否会上调资本支出指引，以及Terafab等超大型项目的融资路径是否会进一步明朗。</p><p>特斯拉在上季度财报中给出的2026年资本支出指引为逾200亿美元，用于支持包括锂精炼厂、磷酸铁锂电池工厂、Cybercab、Semi卡车、休斯顿超级工厂及Optimus产线在内的六条工厂及产线建设，以及AI算力基础设施的扩充。特斯拉计划将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>H100等效GPU数量从2025年底的约12万块提升至6月底的约28万块，<strong>巴克莱估算，仅GPU采购成本即超过35亿美元，配套基础设施投入另需约25至30亿美元。</strong></p><p>然而，上述200亿美元指引明确排除了Terafab芯片工厂和太阳能工厂两大项目。3月，特斯拉发布Terafab计划，目标是建设年产1太瓦算力的芯片制造基地，规模约为当前全球AI算力总产出的50倍，SpaceX、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>及Super Micro Computer均参与其中。</p><p>Terafab若全面落地，总资本支出规模可能高达5万亿至13万亿美元；即便聚焦于近中期地面芯片生产，初期100至200吉瓦/年的产能目标也可能需要5000亿至1万亿美元投入。巴克莱认为，Terafab目前缺乏具体建设时间表和融资方案，属于"待验证的故事"；</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>方面，特斯拉计划于2028年前在美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>100吉瓦制造产能，此前有报道称特斯拉已与中国供应商就价值29亿美元的太阳能生产设备展开谈判，计划于今年8月前交付；巴克莱估算该项目资本支出至少需要300亿美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Andrew Percoco预计特斯拉全年资本支出可能增至250亿至350亿美元，并估算在210亿美元资本支出情境下，2026年自由现金流将为负84亿美元；FactSet数据显示，市场一致预期为负自由现金流超过47亿美元。</p><p>对此，GraniteShares首席执行官Will Rhind在接受MarketWatch采访时表示："即便2026年自由现金流预期持续下修，特斯拉仍拥有业内最强劲的净现金头寸和资产负债表灵活性，足以同时押注所有这些方向——这正是其估值溢价的支撑所在。"<strong>巴克莱则预计，大规模资本支出将导致特斯拉自由现金流持续为负，这一状况可能延续至2029年。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1112234613\">Robotaxi：扩张加速，但规模化仍是疑问</h2><p>Robotaxi的规模化进展，是当前驱动特斯拉估值的核心叙事，也是本次财报最受关注的议题之一。</p><p>周末，特斯拉宣布将Robotaxi服务扩展至达拉斯和休斯顿部分区域，此前该服务仅覆盖德克萨斯州奥斯汀和加州旧金山湾区。这是特斯拉自今年1月在奥斯汀启动有限无人监督服务以来，首次实现实质性地域扩张。特斯拉还计划于今年6月底前将服务扩展至至少九座城市，包括拉斯维加斯和佛罗里达州三座城市。</p><p>然而，扩张规模有限的现实与投资者预期之间的落差，已引发明显不满。众包追踪数据显示，达拉斯和休斯顿两地合计仅有4辆车辆被记录在运营中。去年7月，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克曾声称，到2025年底将向约"一半"美国人口提供Robotaxi服务；但这一目标显然未能兑现。特斯拉投资者平台上，一位持有27.5万股的投资者直接发问："为何Robotaxi网络的推进如此缓慢？"另一位股东则追问："为何距上次指引不足90天，进度就已落后？"</p><p>UBS分析师Joseph Spak在本月初的研报中表示，他预计在特斯拉目标城市中不会看到"有意义的规模化"，并维持中性评级，目标价352美元。他写道："我们相信技术在持续改善，基础设施也将逐步完善，但考虑到安全文化的重要性，特斯拉的推进速度将较为缓慢。"<strong>摩根士丹利则指出，Robotaxi服务的加速落地对于支撑特斯拉高估值"至关重要"。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_168887793\">Optimus：期待兑现，有待验证</h2><p>除Robotaxi外，Optimus机器人是特斯拉当前另一条核心增长叙事，但目前均处于"展示多于落地"的阶段，本次财报电话会议上的管理层表态将至关重要。</p><p>据Say Technologies的数据，股东在投资者平台上最关注的问题正是Optimus的时间表。一位持有220万股的投资者问道："Optimus V3何时发布？由于Model X和S生产线提前于年中停产，Optimus量产何时启动？"马斯克此前曾表示Optimus V3将于3月亮相，但最终仅公布了一段简短宣传视频，并将正式发布推迟以修复相关问题。</p><p>今年1月，他表示Optimus将于2027年底前向公众发售，量产则将于今年晚些时候在部分原用于生产电动车的产线上启动。晨星分析师Seth Goldstein对MarketWatch表示："到2028年，随着特斯拉开始从Robotaxi和机器人业务中产生收入，我们应该真正开始看到这一转变在财务数据上的体现。"</p><p><strong>巴克莱对此持谨慎态度，Optimus方面，巴克莱目前仅在模型中纳入十年内有限的销量预测。不过，巴克莱也承认，任何关于上述项目的具体进展披露，都将对股价产生正面催化作用。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2206206871\">基本面：弱势已被消化，下行风险犹存</h2><p>在三大主题之外，特斯拉核心汽车业务的基本面持续承压，尽管市场对此已有较充分预期。</p><p>巴克莱预计特斯拉一季度汽车业务毛利率（剔除监管积分、含股权激励）约为14.4%，环比下降约350个基点，主要拖累因素包括：交付量环比减少约6万辆（降幅约14%）、以及钢铁、铝、铜及贵金属等原材料成本上涨。部分抵消因素包括关税退款收益——特斯拉100%美国本土制造的特性使其有望获得IEEPA关税退款——以及定价稳定和区域销售结构改善。</p><p>在监管积分方面，巴克莱预计一季度收入约为3亿美元，低于上季度的5.42亿美元及去年同期的5.95亿美元。储能业务方面，一季度部署量为8.8吉瓦时，远低于市场预期的14.4吉瓦时，巴克莱预计该业务毛利率将从上季度的约29%降至约25%。</p><p>从全年维度看，巴克莱预计特斯拉2026年交付量约为161万辆，低于2025年的164万辆，亦低于市场一致预期的约167万辆；全年每股收益预测为1.57美元，低于市场一致预期的1.94美元。值得注意的是，市场一致预期已从一年前的3.82美元大幅下调，但Dan Levy认为下调空间尚未完全释放。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) 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PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770591","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2629138610","content_text":"特斯拉周三美股盘后发布一季度财报，但华尔街真正盯紧的，是Robotaxi扩张迟缓、Optimus量产悬而未决，以及一项规模堪称\"天文数字\"的Terafab芯片制造计划背后的估值逻辑。股价年内已跌近19%，巴克莱警告自由现金流或持续为负至2029年——这份财报，将是市场重新校准特斯拉叙事的关键时刻。特斯拉即将于周三美股盘后（北京时间周四凌晨）发布一季度业绩，但投资者的目光已远超季度盈亏本身。在Robotaxi扩张进度迟缓、Optimus机器人量产时间表模糊，以及一项规模堪称\"天文数字\"的芯片制造计划横空出世的背景下，这份财报将成为市场重新校准特斯拉估值叙事的关键节点。据FactSet数据，华尔街预计特斯拉一季度调整后每股收益为37美分，高于去年同期的27美分；营收预计为222亿美元，同比增长约15%；息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预计为32亿美元，同比增长约17%。但特斯拉已提前披露电动车销量及储能产品部署量均低于市场预期，基本面弱势已在市场预期之内。巴克莱分析师Dan Levy在研报中指出，特斯拉股价年初至今已下跌约19%，跑输标普500指数逾20个百分点，反映出投资者对Robotaxi扩张进度及Optimus量产前景的失望情绪。对市场而言，财报数字本身或许并非最大变量。Jefferies分析师Philippe Houchois在致客户的报告中警告，此次业绩\"将进一步凸显愿景与执行之间的鸿沟\"，并可能引发外界对融资问题的担忧；他还补充称，相关结果或将\"强化\"特斯拉最终与SpaceX合并的逻辑。巴克莱维持特斯拉\"持股观望\"评级，目标价360美元。本次财报电话会议上，管理层就资本支出、Robotaxi扩张及Optimus进展给出的指引，将是决定市场反应方向的核心变量。资本支出：规模之争，悬念未解进入本次财报季，市场最核心的问题是：特斯拉是否会上调资本支出指引，以及Terafab等超大型项目的融资路径是否会进一步明朗。特斯拉在上季度财报中给出的2026年资本支出指引为逾200亿美元，用于支持包括锂精炼厂、磷酸铁锂电池工厂、Cybercab、Semi卡车、休斯顿超级工厂及Optimus产线在内的六条工厂及产线建设，以及AI算力基础设施的扩充。特斯拉计划将英伟达H100等效GPU数量从2025年底的约12万块提升至6月底的约28万块，巴克莱估算，仅GPU采购成本即超过35亿美元，配套基础设施投入另需约25至30亿美元。然而，上述200亿美元指引明确排除了Terafab芯片工厂和太阳能工厂两大项目。3月，特斯拉发布Terafab计划，目标是建设年产1太瓦算力的芯片制造基地，规模约为当前全球AI算力总产出的50倍，SpaceX、英特尔及Super Micro Computer均参与其中。Terafab若全面落地，总资本支出规模可能高达5万亿至13万亿美元；即便聚焦于近中期地面芯片生产，初期100至200吉瓦/年的产能目标也可能需要5000亿至1万亿美元投入。巴克莱认为，Terafab目前缺乏具体建设时间表和融资方案，属于\"待验证的故事\"；在太阳能方面，特斯拉计划于2028年前在美国建成100吉瓦制造产能，此前有报道称特斯拉已与中国供应商就价值29亿美元的太阳能生产设备展开谈判，计划于今年8月前交付；巴克莱估算该项目资本支出至少需要300亿美元。摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Percoco预计特斯拉全年资本支出可能增至250亿至350亿美元，并估算在210亿美元资本支出情境下，2026年自由现金流将为负84亿美元；FactSet数据显示，市场一致预期为负自由现金流超过47亿美元。对此，GraniteShares首席执行官Will Rhind在接受MarketWatch采访时表示：\"即便2026年自由现金流预期持续下修，特斯拉仍拥有业内最强劲的净现金头寸和资产负债表灵活性，足以同时押注所有这些方向——这正是其估值溢价的支撑所在。\"巴克莱则预计，大规模资本支出将导致特斯拉自由现金流持续为负，这一状况可能延续至2029年。Robotaxi：扩张加速，但规模化仍是疑问Robotaxi的规模化进展，是当前驱动特斯拉估值的核心叙事，也是本次财报最受关注的议题之一。周末，特斯拉宣布将Robotaxi服务扩展至达拉斯和休斯顿部分区域，此前该服务仅覆盖德克萨斯州奥斯汀和加州旧金山湾区。这是特斯拉自今年1月在奥斯汀启动有限无人监督服务以来，首次实现实质性地域扩张。特斯拉还计划于今年6月底前将服务扩展至至少九座城市，包括拉斯维加斯和佛罗里达州三座城市。然而，扩张规模有限的现实与投资者预期之间的落差，已引发明显不满。众包追踪数据显示，达拉斯和休斯顿两地合计仅有4辆车辆被记录在运营中。去年7月，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克曾声称，到2025年底将向约\"一半\"美国人口提供Robotaxi服务；但这一目标显然未能兑现。特斯拉投资者平台上，一位持有27.5万股的投资者直接发问：\"为何Robotaxi网络的推进如此缓慢？\"另一位股东则追问：\"为何距上次指引不足90天，进度就已落后？\"UBS分析师Joseph Spak在本月初的研报中表示，他预计在特斯拉目标城市中不会看到\"有意义的规模化\"，并维持中性评级，目标价352美元。他写道：\"我们相信技术在持续改善，基础设施也将逐步完善，但考虑到安全文化的重要性，特斯拉的推进速度将较为缓慢。\"摩根士丹利则指出，Robotaxi服务的加速落地对于支撑特斯拉高估值\"至关重要\"。Optimus：期待兑现，有待验证除Robotaxi外，Optimus机器人是特斯拉当前另一条核心增长叙事，但目前均处于\"展示多于落地\"的阶段，本次财报电话会议上的管理层表态将至关重要。据Say Technologies的数据，股东在投资者平台上最关注的问题正是Optimus的时间表。一位持有220万股的投资者问道：\"Optimus V3何时发布？由于Model X和S生产线提前于年中停产，Optimus量产何时启动？\"马斯克此前曾表示Optimus V3将于3月亮相，但最终仅公布了一段简短宣传视频，并将正式发布推迟以修复相关问题。今年1月，他表示Optimus将于2027年底前向公众发售，量产则将于今年晚些时候在部分原用于生产电动车的产线上启动。晨星分析师Seth Goldstein对MarketWatch表示：\"到2028年，随着特斯拉开始从Robotaxi和机器人业务中产生收入，我们应该真正开始看到这一转变在财务数据上的体现。\"巴克莱对此持谨慎态度，Optimus方面，巴克莱目前仅在模型中纳入十年内有限的销量预测。不过，巴克莱也承认，任何关于上述项目的具体进展披露，都将对股价产生正面催化作用。基本面：弱势已被消化，下行风险犹存在三大主题之外，特斯拉核心汽车业务的基本面持续承压，尽管市场对此已有较充分预期。巴克莱预计特斯拉一季度汽车业务毛利率（剔除监管积分、含股权激励）约为14.4%，环比下降约350个基点，主要拖累因素包括：交付量环比减少约6万辆（降幅约14%）、以及钢铁、铝、铜及贵金属等原材料成本上涨。部分抵消因素包括关税退款收益——特斯拉100%美国本土制造的特性使其有望获得IEEPA关税退款——以及定价稳定和区域销售结构改善。在监管积分方面，巴克莱预计一季度收入约为3亿美元，低于上季度的5.42亿美元及去年同期的5.95亿美元。储能业务方面，一季度部署量为8.8吉瓦时，远低于市场预期的14.4吉瓦时，巴克莱预计该业务毛利率将从上季度的约29%降至约25%。从全年维度看，巴克莱预计特斯拉2026年交付量约为161万辆，低于2025年的164万辆，亦低于市场一致预期的约167万辆；全年每股收益预测为1.57美元，低于市场一致预期的1.94美元。值得注意的是，市场一致预期已从一年前的3.82美元大幅下调，但Dan 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