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  ·08-12
  @iHuman洪恩
  美联储官员齐声警告通胀风险！今夜7月CPI料成加息路径关键裁决
  美联储于7月29日将政策利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间不变。美联储12名拥有投票权的政策制定者中有3人持异议，并投票主张加息。在美联储上月底公布最新利率决议后，多位政策制定者警告通胀持续高企的风险，并释放了对收紧货币政策的开放态度。哈马克正是美联储7月政策会议上三名支持加息的异议官员之一。美联储官员在下一步利率方向上已现分歧。
  美联储官员齐声警告通胀风险！今夜7月CPI料成加息路径关键裁决
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left;\">8月12日，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，与劳动力市场的任何疲软相比，他更加担心通胀过高。不过目前尚不清楚这种担忧是否转化为他对上月几位同僚所希望的加息行动的支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">古尔斯比在周二发布的一段于6月22日录制的视频中表示：“目前我们经济面临的最大问题，并不是产业崩溃和就业岗位崩溃，而是价格上涨得太快。我们面临通胀问题，而人们痛恨通胀。”他在观察失业率、招聘率和裁员率等指标后表示：“它们表明劳动力市场是稳定的——谈不上好，这是我对它的描述。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储于7月29日将政策利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间不变。美联储12名拥有投票权的政策制定者中有3人持异议，并投票主张加息。古尔斯比今年没有投票权，而面对持续超过美联储2%目标水平、且已经持续五年多的通胀，他也没有透露自己是否支持维持利率不变的决定。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在美联储上月底公布最新利率决议后，多位政策制定者警告通胀持续高企的风险，并释放了对收紧货币政策的开放态度。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周一表示，为将通胀重新压回美联储2%的目标水平，未来可能需要不止一次加息。她认为，目前利率水平尚未对美国经济形成“有意义的限制”，通胀也不太可能自行回落至目标水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">哈马克周一接受采访时表示，单次加息25个基点可能不足以对整体经济产生太大影响，因此，如果美联储需要通过货币政策进一步压低通胀，最终可能需要采取“一定次数”的加息行动。不过，她同时强调，目前并不希望预先判断究竟需要加息多少次，也不愿提前设定本轮政策调整的终点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">哈马克正是美联储7月政策会议上三名支持加息的异议官员之一。在会后声明中，哈马克已经警告，通胀维持在高位的时间越长，未来将其重新压回目标水平的难度就越大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆上周表示，在通胀率高于美联储2%目标的情况下，政策制定者无法承受在等待强劲生产率增长可能性的同时忍受更高的通胀。穆萨莱姆表示：“在此背景下，关键是货币政策要对实质通胀形成有效抑制，而不是为了追求明天的生产率增长而忍受今天稍高的通胀。”他补充道：“央行对长期经济增长最重要的贡献，是提供物价稳定的背景，企业可以在此背景下规划推动经济增长的投资与创新。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储理事库克同样于上周重申，如果未来通胀未能继续放缓，她准备支持进一步加息，并警告称，随着通胀持续高于2%目标的时间不断延长，美联储可能没有太多时间继续等待，否则未来控制通胀的难度将进一步加大。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则表示，美联储目前应开始逐步提高利率，以压低仍高于目标的通胀，并避免未来因通胀进一步固化而被迫采取更激进的加息措施。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，也有政策制定者持谨慎态度。支持继续观望的美联储官员认为，关税、能源价格以及地缘政治冲突带来的部分价格冲击可能具有暂时性，过早加息可能在通胀自然回落之前对劳动力市场造成不必要的压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_722743672\">关键通胀报告定调未来加息路径</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">每一次通胀数据都可能改写政策叙事，而本周的CPI和PPI尤为重要。美联储官员在下一步利率方向上已现分歧。上周疲弱的非农报告又为政策前景增添了不确定性——就业岗位减少的同时失业率却小幅下行，信号混乱。但鉴于美联储当前将通胀作为首要考量，若数据超预期甚至仅符合预期，官员们可能被迫重新考虑收紧政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">新任美联储主席面临的挑战与鲍威尔时期如出一辙。在就业市场信号尚不清晰(单月数据不足以判断过热或过冷)的背景下，顽固的价格压力仍将是决策的关键砝码。美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau上周五表示，上月的CPI很可能属于“一次性”异常，而“符合我们预期的报告将增强美联储在9月加息的理由”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国7月CPI数据将于北京时间周三20:30公布。目前市场一致预期显示：整体CPI预计环比上涨0.1%、同比上涨3.4%;核心CPI预计环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨2.5%。两项同比指标均较6月回落0.1个百分点。值得关注的是，环比增速将由6月的-0.4%转为正增长，反映出能源价格降幅收窄以及部分通胀分项的反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济团队预测更为鸽派，预计7月核心CPI环比上涨0.19%(低于市场共识0.2%)，整体CPI仅涨0.05%。高盛同时警告，油价反弹将让市场难以彻底放松。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>则推演了五种情景，其中最可能出现(概率40%)的结果是核心通胀在0.2%至0.25%之间，预计将推动<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨0.25%至0.75%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银预计CPI环比将录得0.15%，核心CPI环比增幅可能达到0.26%。美国银行分析师认为，如果通胀数据意外低于预期，美元可能出现更强烈的反应，因为这将在很大程度上排除美联储9月加息的可能性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芝商所“美联储观察”数据显示，截至8月12日，市场预计美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为50.1%，加息25个基点的概率为49.9%。这一概率在月初一度接近80%后逐步回落，目前处于五五开的关键节点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69f45645aac9aa3d95a1218f4ee4056d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"200\" 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储官员齐声警告通胀风险！今夜7月CPI料成加息路径关键裁决\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-12 12:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1478858.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月12日，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，与劳动力市场的任何疲软相比，他更加担心通胀过高。不过目前尚不清楚这种担忧是否转化为他对上月几位同僚所希望的加息行动的支持。古尔斯比在周二发布的一段于6月22日录制的视频中表示：“目前我们经济面临的最大问题，并不是产业崩溃和就业岗位崩溃，而是价格上涨得太快。我们面临通胀问题，而人们痛恨通胀。”他在观察失业率、招聘率和裁员率等指标后表示：“它们表明劳动力市场是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1478858.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","NAPR":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - April","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x 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October","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","DIA":"道琼斯ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1478858.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658923855","content_text":"8月12日，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，与劳动力市场的任何疲软相比，他更加担心通胀过高。不过目前尚不清楚这种担忧是否转化为他对上月几位同僚所希望的加息行动的支持。古尔斯比在周二发布的一段于6月22日录制的视频中表示：“目前我们经济面临的最大问题，并不是产业崩溃和就业岗位崩溃，而是价格上涨得太快。我们面临通胀问题，而人们痛恨通胀。”他在观察失业率、招聘率和裁员率等指标后表示：“它们表明劳动力市场是稳定的——谈不上好，这是我对它的描述。”美联储于7月29日将政策利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间不变。美联储12名拥有投票权的政策制定者中有3人持异议，并投票主张加息。古尔斯比今年没有投票权，而面对持续超过美联储2%目标水平、且已经持续五年多的通胀，他也没有透露自己是否支持维持利率不变的决定。在美联储上月底公布最新利率决议后，多位政策制定者警告通胀持续高企的风险，并释放了对收紧货币政策的开放态度。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周一表示，为将通胀重新压回美联储2%的目标水平，未来可能需要不止一次加息。她认为，目前利率水平尚未对美国经济形成“有意义的限制”，通胀也不太可能自行回落至目标水平。哈马克周一接受采访时表示，单次加息25个基点可能不足以对整体经济产生太大影响，因此，如果美联储需要通过货币政策进一步压低通胀，最终可能需要采取“一定次数”的加息行动。不过，她同时强调，目前并不希望预先判断究竟需要加息多少次，也不愿提前设定本轮政策调整的终点。哈马克正是美联储7月政策会议上三名支持加息的异议官员之一。在会后声明中，哈马克已经警告，通胀维持在高位的时间越长，未来将其重新压回目标水平的难度就越大。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆上周表示，在通胀率高于美联储2%目标的情况下，政策制定者无法承受在等待强劲生产率增长可能性的同时忍受更高的通胀。穆萨莱姆表示：“在此背景下，关键是货币政策要对实质通胀形成有效抑制，而不是为了追求明天的生产率增长而忍受今天稍高的通胀。”他补充道：“央行对长期经济增长最重要的贡献，是提供物价稳定的背景，企业可以在此背景下规划推动经济增长的投资与创新。”美联储理事库克同样于上周重申，如果未来通胀未能继续放缓，她准备支持进一步加息，并警告称，随着通胀持续高于2%目标的时间不断延长，美联储可能没有太多时间继续等待，否则未来控制通胀的难度将进一步加大。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则表示，美联储目前应开始逐步提高利率，以压低仍高于目标的通胀，并避免未来因通胀进一步固化而被迫采取更激进的加息措施。不过，也有政策制定者持谨慎态度。支持继续观望的美联储官员认为，关税、能源价格以及地缘政治冲突带来的部分价格冲击可能具有暂时性，过早加息可能在通胀自然回落之前对劳动力市场造成不必要的压力。关键通胀报告定调未来加息路径每一次通胀数据都可能改写政策叙事，而本周的CPI和PPI尤为重要。美联储官员在下一步利率方向上已现分歧。上周疲弱的非农报告又为政策前景增添了不确定性——就业岗位减少的同时失业率却小幅下行，信号混乱。但鉴于美联储当前将通胀作为首要考量，若数据超预期甚至仅符合预期，官员们可能被迫重新考虑收紧政策。新任美联储主席面临的挑战与鲍威尔时期如出一辙。在就业市场信号尚不清晰(单月数据不足以判断过热或过冷)的背景下，顽固的价格压力仍将是决策的关键砝码。美国银行经济学家Stephen Juneau上周五表示，上月的CPI很可能属于“一次性”异常，而“符合我们预期的报告将增强美联储在9月加息的理由”。美国7月CPI数据将于北京时间周三20:30公布。目前市场一致预期显示：整体CPI预计环比上涨0.1%、同比上涨3.4%;核心CPI预计环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨2.5%。两项同比指标均较6月回落0.1个百分点。值得关注的是，环比增速将由6月的-0.4%转为正增长，反映出能源价格降幅收窄以及部分通胀分项的反弹。高盛经济团队预测更为鸽派，预计7月核心CPI环比上涨0.19%(低于市场共识0.2%)，整体CPI仅涨0.05%。高盛同时警告，油价反弹将让市场难以彻底放松。摩根大通则推演了五种情景，其中最可能出现(概率40%)的结果是核心通胀在0.2%至0.25%之间，预计将推动标普500指数上涨0.25%至0.75%。德银预计CPI环比将录得0.15%，核心CPI环比增幅可能达到0.26%。美国银行分析师认为，如果通胀数据意外低于预期，美元可能出现更强烈的反应，因为这将在很大程度上排除美联储9月加息的可能性。芝商所“美联储观察”数据显示，截至8月12日，市场预计美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为50.1%，加息25个基点的概率为49.9%。这一概率在月初一度接近80%后逐步回落，目前处于五五开的关键节点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYU":0.6,"AGG":1.5,"07568":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"XBIL":1.5,"EDGF":1.5,"SPDN":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"09086":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"03034":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"JUCY":1.5,"NOCT":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"OOQB":1.5,"03086":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"07266":0.6,"NELS":1.5,"07261":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"EDV":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"07522":0.6,"SHY":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"RMIF":1.5,"TQQY":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"XTEN":1.5,"QID":0.6,"PBDC":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"CIVG":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"BND":1.5,"SDOW":0.6,"TPLS":1.5,"LQD":1.5,"QQQM":0.6,"QSWN":1.5,"03455":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"MYCN":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"02834":0.6,".DJI":2,"TLT":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"BIV":1.5,"SPXS":0.6,"JPST":1.5,"FLXI":1.5,"NDX":2,"RAUS":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"09834":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"AGZD":1.5,"SPYQ":0.6,"RULE":1.5,"NJUL":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"VEXC":1.5,"IVV":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IBTJ":1.5,".IXIC":2,"SH":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"GBIL":1.5,".SPX":2,"UDOW":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"PSQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}