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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-27
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-26
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-25
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-25
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-12
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-08
  Awesome [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-07
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-07
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-02
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>
  Summary ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time. The stock price d
  ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>
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- ClarityClarity
  ·2021-07-02
  [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>
  Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p
  The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>
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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140293934","repostId":"1110626244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540427,"gmtCreate":1625232477569,"gmtModify":1631889889449,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562662036291129","idStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540427","repostId":"1129664890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129664890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625232423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129664890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129664890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 21:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129664890","content_text":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.\nWe're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.\nTread lightly with the risks involved.\n\nArturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment\nOverview\nFor those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over 50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.\nThe company operates through two segments namely platform and player.\nThe platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.\nROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors since listing on the Nasdaq in 2017.\nFinancials \nTop-Line\nROKU reported 63.46% in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of 40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with 101% year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a strategic alliance with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.\nWe think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.\nUser Growth\nSource: Statista\nROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.\nSource: GuruFocus\nTo consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.\nBottom-Line\n\nVery important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.\nMultiples\nSeeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on Seeking Alpha)\n\nMarket Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27\n\nConsidering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.\nAnother ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.\n\nShare price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44\n\nAgain, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth 181.51% over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of 0.3%.\nThe cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.\n\nAnalysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.\nUse Of Residual\nEssential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.\nLet's look at acquisition strategies.\nTo start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.\nSecondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.\nNow for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.\nOther uses of capital.\nROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.\nThe early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.\nSource: Crunchbase\nOld House Ventures was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.\nIf ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.\nShareholder Value\nSource: GuruFocus\nIt remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.\nOur Take\nROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156540876,"gmtCreate":1625232450295,"gmtModify":1631889889463,"author":{"id":"3562662036291129","authorId":"3562662036291129","name":"Clarity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290bda4a10a88bafe28971dd816e57cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562662036291129","idStr":"3562662036291129"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156540876","repostId":"1126312436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126312436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126312436?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126312436","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p","content":"<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能终结这场派对。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500上半年的表现是自1998年以来第二好的，而且没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。截至6月底，该指数今年迄今已上涨14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下另一项收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek联合创始人尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价可能会出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI原油今年迄今已上涨56%，并于周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期OPEC将增加供应。如果油价足够高，通胀可能会上升到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨”是Colas股市担忧的首要问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超出美联储预期结果，也给美国消费者带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱股市，股市长期以来一直受益于美联储的宽松货币政策，特别是如果美联储暗示加息可能比预期更早到来的话。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊吓市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，“美联储对即将到来的政策变化和/或过于激进地加息的沟通不畅”是第二个风险。例如，2018年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月内暴跌18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet的数据显示，随着经济正常化和疫情后复苏放缓，标普500公司的平均盈利增长预计将从2021年的36%放缓至2022年的11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来12个月预期市盈率为21.5倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的市盈率。在某些时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“目前估值足够高，盈利见顶可能比以前面临更大的风险。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能终结这场派对。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500上半年的表现是自1998年以来第二好的，而且没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。截至6月底，该指数今年迄今已上涨14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下另一项收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek联合创始人尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价可能会出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI原油今年迄今已上涨56%，并于周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期OPEC将增加供应。如果油价足够高，通胀可能会上升到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨”是Colas股市担忧的首要问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超出美联储预期结果，也给美国消费者带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱股市，股市长期以来一直受益于美联储的宽松货币政策，特别是如果美联储暗示加息可能比预期更早到来的话。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊吓市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，“美联储对即将到来的政策变化和/或过于激进地加息的沟通不畅”是第二个风险。例如，2018年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月内暴跌18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet的数据显示，随着经济正常化和疫情后复苏放缓，标普500公司的平均盈利增长预计将从2021年的36%放缓至2022年的11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来12个月预期市盈率为21.5倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的市盈率。在某些时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“目前估值足够高，盈利见顶可能比以前面临更大的风险。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126312436","content_text":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.\nYet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nFirst, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.\n“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”\nBoth those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.\nThat means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.\n“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.\nPeaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.\n“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}