个人中心 - 老虎社区

wallence82

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 234帖子 · 234
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- wallence82wallence82
  ·2022-01-01
  Believe in Crsp will do better in 2022
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,400 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-30
  I agree with the writer. Just keep buying
  Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff
  Summary Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest
  Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff
  2,996 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-30
  It a profitable company. Why investors keep dumping.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,491 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-29
  Agree
  Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish
  SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly su
  Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish
  2,071 4
  5
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-29
  Get a good VR to try
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,481 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-28
  It's time to buy
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,206 1
  3
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-27
  Time for Tesla to the moon
  The next Tesla is proving hard to find
  New York Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.A number of upstart electric vehicle makers' stock prices soared in recent years, as investors looked for the next company to shake up the car market. But all have struggled recently -- as has Tesla itself.Rivian was briefly the third-most-valuable automaker on the planet, behind only Tesla and Toyota, despite having yet to report any sales when it went public. When it finally reported its first sales on De
  The next Tesla is proving hard to find
  2,512 2
  8
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-26
  Why sold the stock?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,920 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-24
  Load up Coinbase for upcoming rally
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,299 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- wallence82wallence82
  ·2021-12-23
  The beginning of bull
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,417 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
暂无关注

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3564307944903490","uuid":"3564307944903490","gmtCreate":1601216686336,"gmtModify":1617026879072,"name":"wallence82","pinyin":"wallence82","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":19,"headSize":507,"tweetSize":234,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":2,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.40%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.86%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":692284846,"gmtCreate":1640994794649,"gmtModify":1640994794874,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Believe in Crsp will do better in 2022","listText":"Believe in Crsp will do better in 2022","text":"Believe in Crsp will do better in 2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692284846","repostId":"1149303444","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692079649,"gmtCreate":1640817035413,"gmtModify":1640817035630,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I agree with the writer. Just keep buying","listText":"I agree with the writer. Just keep buying","text":"I agree with the writer. Just keep buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692079649","repostId":"1102262158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102262158","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640670598,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102262158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102262158","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li>\n <li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li>\n <li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an&nbsp;article&nbsp;highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p>\n<p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p>\n<p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p>\n<p><b>Gaming</b></p>\n<p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p>\n<p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p>\n<p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p>\n<p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p>\n<p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p>\n<p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p>\n<p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p>\n<p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p>\n<p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p>\n<p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li>\n <li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li>\n <li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li>\n <li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>E-Commerce</b></p>\n<p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p>\n<p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p>\n<p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p>\n<p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p>\n<p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p>\n<p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p>\n<p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p>\n<p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p>\n<p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p>\n<p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p>\n<p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p>\n<p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p>\n<p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p>\n<p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p>\n<p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p>\n<p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p>\n<p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p>\n<p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p>\n<p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p>\n<p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p>\n<p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p>\n<p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's,&nbsp;Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p>\n<p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p>\n<p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p>\n<p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p>\n<p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476940-sea-limited-understand-the-recent-selloff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102262158","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.\nI dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.\nI consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.\nFurthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.\nIt's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.\nBecause Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.\nGaming\nSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.\nThe game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.\nWith the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.\nRegardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.\nThus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.\nSource: Earnings Call Presentation\nIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.\nWhile 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).\nGarena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.\nThis means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.\nI believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:\n\nNext year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.\nThe peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.\nGarena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.\nAlthough I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.\n\nE-Commerce\nSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.\nThere's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.\nOne neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.\nSource: The Author, compiled from Alexa\nShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.\nSource: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie\nOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.\nOf course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.\nSo why would a company with so much potential sell off?\nAfter the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.\nAnother complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.\nThe company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.\nDespite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.\nFor unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).\nTo understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.\nIf Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.\nGiven this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.\nSo I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.\nThus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.\nFinTech & Investments\nThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.\nThen there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.\nDespite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.\nIf one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.\nOne way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.\nFinally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.\nConclusion\nLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.\nThis optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.\nOnly fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692079011,"gmtCreate":1640816777533,"gmtModify":1640816777773,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It a profitable company. Why investors keep dumping.","listText":"It a profitable company. Why investors keep dumping.","text":"It a profitable company. Why investors keep dumping.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692079011","repostId":"2194074487","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696735096,"gmtCreate":1640765758331,"gmtModify":1640765773730,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696735096","repostId":"1168845751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168845751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640765334,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168845751?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168845751","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly su","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Lucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.</li><li>The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.</li><li>We discuss why we think it&#39;s time for EV investors to turn bullish on Lucid stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b06efeb97c339c447478d616e8e4db7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p>Lucid Group(LCID) stock has fallen 26% since our previous article (Neutral rating) was published as we encouraged investors to be patient. We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.</p><p>Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.</p><p>While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.</p><p>Therefore, we believe it&#39;s apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.</p><p>Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID Now</p><p>Lucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID&#39;s long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn&#39;t mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned &#34;range king&#34; is certainly no mean feat. It&#39;s a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson &amp; Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid&#39;s amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson&#39;s strategy of &#34;moving down the chain&#34; is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid&#39;s vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote>Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.<i>Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range</i>. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That&#39;s the future. (Insider)</blockquote><p>Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.</p><p><b>Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?</b></p><p>Let&#39;s put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It&#39;s riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we&#39;re not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF&#39;s 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.</p><p>Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It&#39;s important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it&#39;s a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that &#34;the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum.&#34; Therefore, it&#39;s a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company&#39;s rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):</p><blockquote>So, we&#39;re sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that&#39;s going to get us well through 2022. You&#39;re going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we&#39;re already doing that acceleration.<i>We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources</i>. You&#39;ll note that we still haven&#39;t even taken debt on.<i>So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt</i>. So we&#39;re feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company&#39;s ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid&#39;s FQ3&#39;21 earnings call)</blockquote><p><b>Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba3124f31c4a9080cab2f9604eef1e35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lucid stock &amp; peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p>Lucid stock&#39;s valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock&#39;s valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it&#39;s no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.</p><p>Moreover, the &#34;green tidal wave&#34; is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don&#39;t have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are &#34;perfect&#34; to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.</p><p>Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers&#39; stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):</p><blockquote>Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)</blockquote><p>Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid&#39;s business model is very robust, and that&#39;s critical.</p><p>Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.</p><p>Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors only.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-29 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477067-lucid-stock-down-33-percent-from-its-november-high-its-time-to-turn-bullish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.We discuss why we think it's time ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477067-lucid-stock-down-33-percent-from-its-november-high-its-time-to-turn-bullish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477067-lucid-stock-down-33-percent-from-its-november-high-its-time-to-turn-bullish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168845751","content_text":"SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.We discuss why we think it's time for EV investors to turn bullish on Lucid stock.Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images EntertainmentLucid Group(LCID) stock has fallen 26% since our previous article (Neutral rating) was published as we encouraged investors to be patient. We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.Therefore, we believe it's apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID NowLucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID's long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn't mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned \"range king\" is certainly no mean feat. It's a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson & Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid's amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson's strategy of \"moving down the chain\" is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid's vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future. (Insider)Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?Let's put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It's riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we're not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF's 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It's important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it's a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that \"the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum.\" Therefore, it's a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company's rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):So, we're sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that's going to get us well through 2022. You're going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we're already doing that acceleration.We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources. You'll note that we still haven't even taken debt on.So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt. So we're feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company's ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?Lucid stock & peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQLucid stock's valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock's valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it's no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.Moreover, the \"green tidal wave\" is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don't have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are \"perfect\" to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers' stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid's business model is very robust, and that's critical.Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696594424,"gmtCreate":1640730498384,"gmtModify":1640730498634,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get a good VR to try&nbsp;","listText":"Get a good VR to try&nbsp;","text":"Get a good VR to try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696594424","repostId":"2195436444","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696103894,"gmtCreate":1640644768413,"gmtModify":1640644768626,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's time to buy","listText":"It's time to buy","text":"It's time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696103894","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696024349,"gmtCreate":1640580058229,"gmtModify":1640580058443,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time for Tesla to the moon","listText":"Time for Tesla to the moon","text":"Time for Tesla to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696024349","repostId":"1138768744","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138768744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640576008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138768744?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next Tesla is proving hard to find","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138768744","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.A number of upstart electric vehicle makers' stock prices soared in recent years, as investors looked for the next company to shake up the car market. But all have struggled recently -- as has Tesla  itself.Rivian was briefly the third-most-valuable automaker on the planet, behind only Tesla and Toyota, despite having yet to report any sales when it went public. When it finally reported its first sales on De","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.</p>\n<p>A number of upstart electric vehicle makers' stock prices soared in recent years, as investors looked for the next company to shake up the car market. But all have struggled recently -- as has Tesla (TSLA) itself.</p>\n<p>Lucid, which started trading on the Nasdaq in July after a SPAC deal, had its share of good news: Its first car, the Lucid Air, won MotorTrend Car of the Year honors and was certified as having a range of 520 miles on a single charge, the longest of any EV. But company has also disclosed it faces subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange Commission about some of its claims and the SPAC deal, and shares are down from a November 16 peak.</p>\n<p>Electric truck maker Rivian had a huge hit with its November IPO, and it also won MotorTrend Truck of the Year honors. Rivian won the race to be the first all-electric pickup to reach market. Shares shot up 29% from the IPO price on its first day of trading, and gained another 71% over the next week.</p>\n<p>Rivian was briefly the third-most-valuable automaker on the planet, behind only Tesla and Toyota, despite having yet to report any sales when it went public. When it finally reported its first sales on December 16 they fell short of expectations, and the company cited the same chip and parts shortages dogging the rest of the auto industry. Shares closed Thursday down 44% from that pre-report high, and the sales report proved to be a headwind for Lucid shares as well.</p>\n<p>Even Tesla, which earlier this year became only the sixth company to reach a $1 trillion market value, has encountered recent troubles. Shares sank as much as 27% from an all-time high set on November 4 through Tuesday -- before a late-week rally lifted it back above the $1 trillion mark. Still, it is trading 13% below its all-time peak.</p>\n<p>Part of the recent problem for EV stocks is the apparent demise of the Biden administration's Build Back Better bill, which had a number of goodies for the EV industry, including enhanced tax credits for buyers that would have allowed automakers to charge more for the vehicles. Build Back Better also includes money for a network of rapid charging stations, which would have answered potential EV buyers' concerns about running out of juice while on the road.</p>\n<p>\"That was a gut punch to the EV bulls,\" said Dan Ives, tech analyst for Wedbush Securities. \"For incremental demand in 2022 and beyond, the EVs tax credits is a 15% swing factor in demand.\"</p>\n<p>But much of the decline in EV stocks took place before Sen. Joe Manchin said last week he couldn't support the legislation, throwing its future in severe doubt.</p>\n<p>Much of the dip is due to continued announcements from established automakers such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford and GM about additional investment plans in EVs. The concern is that even if consumer preferences and tougher environment rules are about to create a massive shift from gasoline-powered vehicles to electrics, stand-alone EV companies won't necessarily win the battle.</p>\n<p>\"There are going to be losers in the battle for EV market share,\" said Ives. \"Rivian coming out of gate with a delivery short fall, that couldn't have come at a worst time. It's a dark cloud on the pure play EV makers. And investors have a lot less patience with any execution missteps.\"</p>\n<p>Tesla has grown to the point where it is profitable and large enough to grow even in the face of increased competition from the established automakers. It projects sales growth of 50% or better this year and beyond. And the stock has mostly bucked the declines in the sector, rising 51% so far this year.</p>\n<p>Although that is only a fraction of the 743% gain Tesla stock achieved in 2020, it's better than most of the established automakers other than Ford, whose shares are up 131% this year after posting significant gains in its own EV efforts.</p>\n<p>The two most troubled EV stocks -- Nikola and Lordstown Motors -- lost 27% and 80% of their value, respectively, through Thursday's close, although Nikola's stock surged 18% Thursday after announcing it had finally made its first truck delivery.</p>\n<p>But earlier in the week, Nikola agreed to pay a $125 million fine to settle charges Trevor Milton, its founder and former CEO, deceived investors. Milton was forced to resign in September 2020 after questions about company's claims first surfaced. He now faces federal criminal charges.</p>\n<p>The founder and CEO of Lordstown was also forced to resign, and the company has expressed doubts that it can remain in business.</p>\n<p>The trouble those companies had living up to their early promises means companies like Lucid and Rivian will have to do more to prove themselves before they will be fully embraced by investors, Ives said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next Tesla is proving hard to find</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next Tesla is proving hard to find\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-27 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/26/investing/tesla-ev-stocks/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.\nA number of upstart electric vehicle makers' stock prices soared in recent years, as investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/26/investing/tesla-ev-stocks/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/26/investing/tesla-ev-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138768744","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Finding the next Tesla among electric vehicle stocks is proving to be difficult.\nA number of upstart electric vehicle makers' stock prices soared in recent years, as investors looked for the next company to shake up the car market. But all have struggled recently -- as has Tesla (TSLA) itself.\nLucid, which started trading on the Nasdaq in July after a SPAC deal, had its share of good news: Its first car, the Lucid Air, won MotorTrend Car of the Year honors and was certified as having a range of 520 miles on a single charge, the longest of any EV. But company has also disclosed it faces subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange Commission about some of its claims and the SPAC deal, and shares are down from a November 16 peak.\nElectric truck maker Rivian had a huge hit with its November IPO, and it also won MotorTrend Truck of the Year honors. Rivian won the race to be the first all-electric pickup to reach market. Shares shot up 29% from the IPO price on its first day of trading, and gained another 71% over the next week.\nRivian was briefly the third-most-valuable automaker on the planet, behind only Tesla and Toyota, despite having yet to report any sales when it went public. When it finally reported its first sales on December 16 they fell short of expectations, and the company cited the same chip and parts shortages dogging the rest of the auto industry. Shares closed Thursday down 44% from that pre-report high, and the sales report proved to be a headwind for Lucid shares as well.\nEven Tesla, which earlier this year became only the sixth company to reach a $1 trillion market value, has encountered recent troubles. Shares sank as much as 27% from an all-time high set on November 4 through Tuesday -- before a late-week rally lifted it back above the $1 trillion mark. Still, it is trading 13% below its all-time peak.\nPart of the recent problem for EV stocks is the apparent demise of the Biden administration's Build Back Better bill, which had a number of goodies for the EV industry, including enhanced tax credits for buyers that would have allowed automakers to charge more for the vehicles. Build Back Better also includes money for a network of rapid charging stations, which would have answered potential EV buyers' concerns about running out of juice while on the road.\n\"That was a gut punch to the EV bulls,\" said Dan Ives, tech analyst for Wedbush Securities. \"For incremental demand in 2022 and beyond, the EVs tax credits is a 15% swing factor in demand.\"\nBut much of the decline in EV stocks took place before Sen. Joe Manchin said last week he couldn't support the legislation, throwing its future in severe doubt.\nMuch of the dip is due to continued announcements from established automakers such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford and GM about additional investment plans in EVs. The concern is that even if consumer preferences and tougher environment rules are about to create a massive shift from gasoline-powered vehicles to electrics, stand-alone EV companies won't necessarily win the battle.\n\"There are going to be losers in the battle for EV market share,\" said Ives. \"Rivian coming out of gate with a delivery short fall, that couldn't have come at a worst time. It's a dark cloud on the pure play EV makers. And investors have a lot less patience with any execution missteps.\"\nTesla has grown to the point where it is profitable and large enough to grow even in the face of increased competition from the established automakers. It projects sales growth of 50% or better this year and beyond. And the stock has mostly bucked the declines in the sector, rising 51% so far this year.\nAlthough that is only a fraction of the 743% gain Tesla stock achieved in 2020, it's better than most of the established automakers other than Ford, whose shares are up 131% this year after posting significant gains in its own EV efforts.\nThe two most troubled EV stocks -- Nikola and Lordstown Motors -- lost 27% and 80% of their value, respectively, through Thursday's close, although Nikola's stock surged 18% Thursday after announcing it had finally made its first truck delivery.\nBut earlier in the week, Nikola agreed to pay a $125 million fine to settle charges Trevor Milton, its founder and former CEO, deceived investors. Milton was forced to resign in September 2020 after questions about company's claims first surfaced. He now faces federal criminal charges.\nThe founder and CEO of Lordstown was also forced to resign, and the company has expressed doubts that it can remain in business.\nThe trouble those companies had living up to their early promises means companies like Lucid and Rivian will have to do more to prove themselves before they will be fully embraced by investors, Ives said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698466649,"gmtCreate":1640497776204,"gmtModify":1640497776471,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why sold the stock?","listText":"Why sold the stock?","text":"Why sold the stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698466649","repostId":"2193491521","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698888497,"gmtCreate":1640340170040,"gmtModify":1640340170269,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Load up Coinbase for upcoming rally","listText":"Load up Coinbase for upcoming rally","text":"Load up Coinbase for upcoming rally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698888497","repostId":"2193138147","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698094606,"gmtCreate":1640256509175,"gmtModify":1640256509451,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564307944903490","authorIdStr":"3564307944903490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The beginning of bull&nbsp;","listText":"The beginning of bull&nbsp;","text":"The beginning of bull","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698094606","repostId":"2192909527","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}