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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-05
Thanks for the warning
A Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的警告: 我们距离 1981 年还有很长的路要走</blockquote>
The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old —
A Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的警告: 我们距离 1981 年还有很长的路要走</blockquote>
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-03
Great
U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%<blockquote>周三美股低开;道指下跌0.11%</blockquote>
(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment d
U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%<blockquote>周三美股低开;道指下跌0.11%</blockquote>
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-03
Nani
Ocugen stock soars after partner Bharat Biotech COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows 81% efficacy<blockquote>合作伙伴Bharat Biotech COVID-19候选疫苗显示出81%的功效后,Ocugen股价飙升</blockquote>
(March 3) Shares of Histogenics soared 41.0%, after the biopharmaceutical company said its co-develo
Ocugen stock soars after partner Bharat Biotech COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows 81% efficacy<blockquote>合作伙伴Bharat Biotech COVID-19候选疫苗显示出81%的功效后,Ocugen股价飙升</blockquote>
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-02
Yo //
@Ohyeah996
:Lol
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-02
Woah
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-03-02
Nice
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
·
2021-02-26
Cool
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
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2021-02-26
Cool
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Isabelkhoo
Isabelkhoo
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2021-02-26
Nice
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for the warning ","listText":"Thanks for the warning ","text":"Thanks for the warning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367195217","repostId":"1112359794","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112359794","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614911874,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112359794?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的警告: 我们距离 1981 年还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112359794","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — ","content":"<p>The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. </p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司年度信函——一如既往地由现年 90 岁的首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特撰写——于上周末发布。</blockquote></p><p>Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon mots and insights, has become a kind of annual tradition for much of the financial world. Analysts, money managers, journalists, and investors of all stripes tend to read it the weekend it comes out, even if they own no shares.</p><p><blockquote>阅读伯克希尔的信,寻找巴菲特的好话和见解的复活节彩蛋,已经成为金融界大部分人的一种年度传统。分析师、基金经理、记者和各类投资者倾向于在它发布的周末阅读它,即使他们没有股票。</blockquote></p><p>Your editor is one such reader: Though never a shareholder, we’ve been perusing the Buffett letters for nearly 20 years. We also have all of the old letters on file, dating back long before we were born. The best one of all, in our view, is the Buffett Partnership letter covering 1965, available here.</p><p><blockquote>您的编辑就是这样一位读者: 虽然我们从未成为过巴菲特的股东,但我们已经阅读巴菲特的信件近 20 年了。我们还有所有的旧信件存档,可以追溯到我们出生之前很久。我们认为,其中最好的一封是涵盖 1965 年的巴菲特合伙信,可在此处获取。</blockquote></p><p>The 2021 letter felt somber and restrained compared to past years. This makes sense, given what America and the world had to go through in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与往年相比,2021年的信感觉阴郁而克制。考虑到美国和世界在2020年必须经历的事情,这是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p>Still, in terms of pessimism and dark warnings — far from the normal fare for Buffett — this passage on the “bleak future” for fixed-income investors stood out:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,就悲观情绪和黑暗警告而言--这与巴菲特的正常表现相去甚远--这段关于固定收益投资者 “黯淡未来 ”的段落还是格外引人注目:</blockquote></p><p><i>[B]onds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at year end – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[B]onds现在不是该去的地方。你能相信最近10年期美国国债的收益率——年底收益率为0.93%——比1981年9月15.8%的收益率下降了94%?在某些大国和重要国家,如德国和日本,投资者从数万亿美元的主权债务中获得负回报。全球固定收益投资者——无论是养老基金、保险公司还是退休人员——都面临着黯淡的未来。</i></blockquote></p><p>Per Buffett’s calculation, over the course of almost four decades — from September 1981 to year-end 2020 — the yield on the 10-year note fell by 94%.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特的计算,在近四十年的时间里--从 1981 年 9 月到 2020 年底--10 年期国债的收益率下降了 94%。</blockquote></p><p>In regard to falling yields, here is another remarkable stat per Chris Bloomstran, the president and chief investment officer of Semper Augustus: As of Feb. 27, the price of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond had fallen by more than 16% in three months — a drop that erased 10 full years’ worth of coupon payments. Also per Bloomstran, the 10-year gave up 7 years’ worth of coupons in that time.</p><p><blockquote>关于收益率下降,Semper Augustus 总裁兼首席投资官克里斯-布卢姆斯特兰(Chris Bloomstran)给出了另一个值得注意的数据: 截至 2 月 27 日,美国 30 年期国债价格在三个月内下跌了 16% 以上,这一跌幅抹去了 10 年的息票支付。此外,根据 Bloomstran 的说法,10 年期学生在此期间放弃了 7 年的优惠券。</blockquote></p><p>Imagine clipping coupons on your government bonds for a full decade — then taking a hit on the principal worth all of the payments and then some, over the course of just 12 weeks. Now imagine trying to be a government bond investor moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>想象一下,将政府债券的息票剪掉整整十年,然后在短短 12 周内,所有付款和部分付款的本金都会受到打击。现在想象一下,试图成为一名政府债券投资者。</blockquote></p><p>For holders of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the pain is increasing because the U.S. economy is reflating, powered by vaccine optimism, pent-up demand, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus. Economic growth of the rip-roaring variety is coming, with inflation to follow on the heels of that.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期持有美国国债的人来说,痛苦正在加剧,因为在疫苗乐观情绪、被压抑的需求和海啸财政刺激的推动下,美国经济正在重新通货膨胀。经济增长即将到来,随之而来的是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>If you’ll pardon the cheap rhyme, the interest-rate mantra “lower for longer” now looks “wrong and wronger.” Per data from Bespoke Investment Group, the 2021 sell-off in the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index has already produced the third-worst percentage since records began in 1988 — and the year is still young.</p><p><blockquote>如果你原谅这个廉价的押韵,那么利率口头禅 “更长时间地降低 ”现在看起来 “越来越错误”。根据 Bespoke Investment Group 的数据,2021 年美林 10 年以上国债指数的抛售已经产生了自 1988 年有记录以来第三差的百分比,而且这一年还年轻。</blockquote></p><p>Then, too, Buffett’s harkening back to 1981, and a 94% decline in yields over nearly 40 years, is a sobering reminder of how far the pendulum has swung. The chart below, via FRED, shows the four-decade journey of the 10-year yield from 1980 to today.</p><p><blockquote>此外,巴菲特还回顾了 1981 年,以及近 40 年来收益率下降了 94%,这也清醒地提醒我们钟摆已经摆动了多远。下图通过 FRED 显示了 10 年期国债收益率从 1980 年至今的四十年历程。</blockquote></p><p>It is hard to beat the 10-year yield for a vivid illustration of what Ray Dalio calls “the long-term debt cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>很难比 10 年期国债收益率更能生动地诠释雷-达里奥-评级(Ray Dalio Martin)的 “长期债务周期 ”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36263398704c16a502896748461035c5\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Long-Term Debt Cycle is the cyclical pattern by which interest rates and inflation pressures tend to fall, even as debt and leverage levels rise, for decades at a time.</p><p><blockquote>长期债务周期是一种周期性模式,即使债务和杠杆水平上升,利率和通胀压力也往往会在几十年内下降。</blockquote></p><p>At the beginning of the long-term debt cycle — which had its genesis in 1981 — inflation was sky-high, while debt and leverage levels were low.</p><p><blockquote>起源于 1981 年的长期债务周期开始时,通货膨胀率极高,而债务和杠杆水平却很低。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rates peaked in 1981 because that was the year Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally “broke the back of inflation” in a way investors could acknowledge.</p><p><blockquote>1981 年,利率达到顶峰,因为那一年,美联储主席保罗-沃尔克(Paul Volcker)终于以投资者可以承认的方式 “打破了通货膨胀的脊梁”。</blockquote></p><p>Volcker’s efforts to kill off inflation, through a multi-year period of painfully high interest rates, were part of what cleaned out the debt and the leverage. The United States went through not one, but two recessions in the early 1980s, spaced about 14 months apart, as the price of borrowing went through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔克通过多年令人痛苦的高利率来抑制通货膨胀,这也是清理债务和杠杆的部分原因。20 世纪 80 年代初,随着借贷价格飙升,美国经历了两次衰退,相隔约 14 个月。</blockquote></p><p>But Volker’s successful anti-inflation campaign, coupled with low debt-and-leverage levels, was the very thing that allowed a new long-term debt cycle to kick off.</p><p><blockquote>但沃尔克成功的反通胀运动,加上低债务和低杠杆水平,正是新的长期债务周期得以启动的原因。</blockquote></p><p>The build-up of debt to GDP from 1980 onward, as shown in the FRED chart below, is a sort of inverted image of the falling 10-year yield. That is because, in a standard long-term debt cycle, debt levels go up as inflation and borrowing costs go down.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/078f1f48bf80854f84c01fc648e7b5f4\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The “bleak future” that Buffett warned of for fixed income investors relates to what happens when the long-term debt cycle reaches its farthest point.</p><p><blockquote>如下图 FRED 所示,自 1980 年以来,债务占 GDP 的增长是 10 年期国债收益率下降的一种倒置图像。这是因为,在标准的长期债务周期中,债务水平随着通货膨胀和借贷成本的下降而上升。巴菲特警告固定收益投资者的 “黯淡未来 ”与长期债务周期达到最远时会发生什么有关。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Think of a giant, slow-moving pendulum that swings in the same direction over a 40-plus-year period. Over that entire window of time, bond yields and inflation pressures are falling, even as debt and leverage levels rise.</p><p><blockquote>想象一个巨大的、缓慢移动的钟摆,在40多年的时间里朝同一个方向摆动。在整个时期内,尽管债务和杠杆水平上升,但债券收益率和通胀压力都在下降。</blockquote></p><p>Once the pendulum starts to swing the other way, a multi-decade trend in the opposite direction occurs. Instead of falling for decades on end, yields go into a pattern of rising for decades on end (which means bond prices fall); and instead of debt and leverage building up to ever-higher levels as a percentage of output over time, there is a far less pleasant multi-decade period where debt and leverage levels are cut back (or inflated away) to a lesser percentage of output over time, rolling back the previous extreme.</p><p><blockquote>一旦钟摆开始反向摆动,就会出现相反方向的几十年趋势。收益率不是连续几十年下降,而是进入了连续几十年上升的模式(这意味着债券价格下跌);随着时间的推移,债务和杠杆占产出的百分比并没有上升到越来越高的水平,而是在一个不太愉快的几十年里,随着时间的推移,债务和杠杆水平被削减(或膨胀)到较低的产出百分比,回滚之前的极端。</blockquote></p><p>Then, once the pendulum has swung all the way back, it swings forward yet again, a kind of permanent oscillation between high interest rates versus low, coupled with low debt levels versus high. And because a nation’s economy is immortal — assuming the nation continues to exist — these generational patterns of build-up and roll-back can repeat ad infinitum.</p><p><blockquote>然后,一旦钟摆一直向后摆动,它就会再次向前摆动,这是一种高利率与低利率、低债务水平与高债务水平之间的永久振荡。因为一个国家的经济是不朽的--假设这个国家继续存在--这些世代积累和倒退的模式可以无限重复。</blockquote></p><p>What a majority of investors haven’t yet realized is that their entire personal experience in markets — going all the way back to 1981 — is geared toward the pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者还没有意识到,他们个人在市场中的整个经历--可以追溯到 1981 年--都指向长期债务周期中令人愉快的一半。</blockquote></p><p>All that they know on a gut-feel basis — unless they were active market participants in the 1970s — is that left-to-right pendulum swing where interest rates fall, as debt and leverage rise and rise.</p><p><blockquote>他们凭直觉所知道的一切——除非他们在 20 世纪 70 年代是活跃的市场参与者——就是随着债务和杠杆不断上升,利率会下降的左右钟摆摆动。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett’s warning to fixed-income investors is a reminder we are headed for the less-pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle — the multi-decade period where interest rates rise and rise, and then rise some more, as governments, corporations, and consumers either actively reduce their debt loads or see the value of those debts inflated away.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对固定收益投资者的警告提醒我们,我们正走向长期债务周期中不太愉快的一半--几十年来,随着政府、企业和消费者要么积极减少债务负担,要么眼睁睁地看着这些债务的价值膨胀,利率不断上升,然后又上升更多。</blockquote></p><p>Then, too, inflation is a part of the process because the debt adjustment almost always happens more via inflation than hardcore belt-tightening: It is just easier to reduce the debt load via printing press, which reduces the percentage ratio of debt-to-output over time. That tendency also explains why inflation will likely roar higher again — with interest rates rising up with it — over the next decade or two (or three, or four).</p><p><blockquote>此外,通货膨胀也是这一过程的一部分,因为债务调整几乎总是更多地通过通货膨胀而不是铁杆勒紧裤腰带:通过印刷机减少债务负担更容易,这可以降低债务与产出的百分比随着时间的推移。这一趋势也解释了为什么通货膨胀可能会在未来一二十年(或三四年)再次飙升,利率也会随之上升。</blockquote></p><p>Just for fun, we took the 10-year yield chart and flipped the image horizontally (below), to create a visual picture of how the next 40 years might look if the long-term debt cycle retraced its steps perfectly. It’s never that simple, of course, but as a mental exercise, it’s worthwhile trying to imagine interest rates following a path like the one below.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31778f96af4d69be42e3fed9c5d32a1\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bottom line is that very few investors are ready for the world that is coming.</p><p><blockquote>为了好玩,我们拿了 10 年期收益率图表,并将图像水平翻转(如下),以创建一幅如果长期债务周期完美地回溯其步骤,未来 40 年可能会是什么样子的视觉画面。当然,这从来都不是那么简单,但作为一项脑力练习,值得试着想象利率沿着下面这条路径发展。底线是,很少有投资者为即将到来的世界做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>With “lower for longer” becoming “wrong and wronger” as the U.S. prepares for emerging-market-like levels of growth in the year ahead — and the Federal Reserve signaling it is fine with a jump in long-term yields, at least for now — dislocations in vulnerable areas of the stock market are likely just beginning.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国为未来一年类似新兴市场的增长水平做准备,“长期走低 ”正变得 “越来越错误”--美联储表示,至少目前来看,长期收益率的跃升是可以接受的--股市脆弱领域的混乱很可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p><i>Originally by Beverly Becker for TradeSmith.com</i>.</p><p><blockquote><i>最初由 Beverly Becker 为 TradeSmith.com 撰写</i>.</blockquote></p><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p><p><blockquote>本文表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见,不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点和意见。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的警告: 我们距离 1981 年还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-05 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. </p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司年度信函——一如既往地由现年 90 岁的首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特撰写——于上周末发布。</blockquote></p><p>Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon mots and insights, has become a kind of annual tradition for much of the financial world. Analysts, money managers, journalists, and investors of all stripes tend to read it the weekend it comes out, even if they own no shares.</p><p><blockquote>阅读伯克希尔的信,寻找巴菲特的好话和见解的复活节彩蛋,已经成为金融界大部分人的一种年度传统。分析师、基金经理、记者和各类投资者倾向于在它发布的周末阅读它,即使他们没有股票。</blockquote></p><p>Your editor is one such reader: Though never a shareholder, we’ve been perusing the Buffett letters for nearly 20 years. We also have all of the old letters on file, dating back long before we were born. The best one of all, in our view, is the Buffett Partnership letter covering 1965, available here.</p><p><blockquote>您的编辑就是这样一位读者: 虽然我们从未成为过巴菲特的股东,但我们已经阅读巴菲特的信件近 20 年了。我们还有所有的旧信件存档,可以追溯到我们出生之前很久。我们认为,其中最好的一封是涵盖 1965 年的巴菲特合伙信,可在此处获取。</blockquote></p><p>The 2021 letter felt somber and restrained compared to past years. This makes sense, given what America and the world had to go through in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与往年相比,2021年的信感觉阴郁而克制。考虑到美国和世界在2020年必须经历的事情,这是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p>Still, in terms of pessimism and dark warnings — far from the normal fare for Buffett — this passage on the “bleak future” for fixed-income investors stood out:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此,就悲观情绪和黑暗警告而言--这与巴菲特的正常表现相去甚远--这段关于固定收益投资者 “黯淡未来 ”的段落还是格外引人注目:</blockquote></p><p><i>[B]onds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at year end – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[B]onds现在不是该去的地方。你能相信最近10年期美国国债的收益率——年底收益率为0.93%——比1981年9月15.8%的收益率下降了94%?在某些大国和重要国家,如德国和日本,投资者从数万亿美元的主权债务中获得负回报。全球固定收益投资者——无论是养老基金、保险公司还是退休人员——都面临着黯淡的未来。</i></blockquote></p><p>Per Buffett’s calculation, over the course of almost four decades — from September 1981 to year-end 2020 — the yield on the 10-year note fell by 94%.</p><p><blockquote>根据巴菲特的计算,在近四十年的时间里--从 1981 年 9 月到 2020 年底--10 年期国债的收益率下降了 94%。</blockquote></p><p>In regard to falling yields, here is another remarkable stat per Chris Bloomstran, the president and chief investment officer of Semper Augustus: As of Feb. 27, the price of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond had fallen by more than 16% in three months — a drop that erased 10 full years’ worth of coupon payments. Also per Bloomstran, the 10-year gave up 7 years’ worth of coupons in that time.</p><p><blockquote>关于收益率下降,Semper Augustus 总裁兼首席投资官克里斯-布卢姆斯特兰(Chris Bloomstran)给出了另一个值得注意的数据: 截至 2 月 27 日,美国 30 年期国债价格在三个月内下跌了 16% 以上,这一跌幅抹去了 10 年的息票支付。此外,根据 Bloomstran 的说法,10 年期学生在此期间放弃了 7 年的优惠券。</blockquote></p><p>Imagine clipping coupons on your government bonds for a full decade — then taking a hit on the principal worth all of the payments and then some, over the course of just 12 weeks. Now imagine trying to be a government bond investor moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>想象一下,将政府债券的息票剪掉整整十年,然后在短短 12 周内,所有付款和部分付款的本金都会受到打击。现在想象一下,试图成为一名政府债券投资者。</blockquote></p><p>For holders of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the pain is increasing because the U.S. economy is reflating, powered by vaccine optimism, pent-up demand, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus. Economic growth of the rip-roaring variety is coming, with inflation to follow on the heels of that.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期持有美国国债的人来说,痛苦正在加剧,因为在疫苗乐观情绪、被压抑的需求和海啸财政刺激的推动下,美国经济正在重新通货膨胀。经济增长即将到来,随之而来的是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>If you’ll pardon the cheap rhyme, the interest-rate mantra “lower for longer” now looks “wrong and wronger.” Per data from Bespoke Investment Group, the 2021 sell-off in the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index has already produced the third-worst percentage since records began in 1988 — and the year is still young.</p><p><blockquote>如果你原谅这个廉价的押韵,那么利率口头禅 “更长时间地降低 ”现在看起来 “越来越错误”。根据 Bespoke Investment Group 的数据,2021 年美林 10 年以上国债指数的抛售已经产生了自 1988 年有记录以来第三差的百分比,而且这一年还年轻。</blockquote></p><p>Then, too, Buffett’s harkening back to 1981, and a 94% decline in yields over nearly 40 years, is a sobering reminder of how far the pendulum has swung. The chart below, via FRED, shows the four-decade journey of the 10-year yield from 1980 to today.</p><p><blockquote>此外,巴菲特还回顾了 1981 年,以及近 40 年来收益率下降了 94%,这也清醒地提醒我们钟摆已经摆动了多远。下图通过 FRED 显示了 10 年期国债收益率从 1980 年至今的四十年历程。</blockquote></p><p>It is hard to beat the 10-year yield for a vivid illustration of what Ray Dalio calls “the long-term debt cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>很难比 10 年期国债收益率更能生动地诠释雷-达里奥-评级(Ray Dalio Martin)的 “长期债务周期 ”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36263398704c16a502896748461035c5\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Long-Term Debt Cycle is the cyclical pattern by which interest rates and inflation pressures tend to fall, even as debt and leverage levels rise, for decades at a time.</p><p><blockquote>长期债务周期是一种周期性模式,即使债务和杠杆水平上升,利率和通胀压力也往往会在几十年内下降。</blockquote></p><p>At the beginning of the long-term debt cycle — which had its genesis in 1981 — inflation was sky-high, while debt and leverage levels were low.</p><p><blockquote>起源于 1981 年的长期债务周期开始时,通货膨胀率极高,而债务和杠杆水平却很低。</blockquote></p><p>Interest rates peaked in 1981 because that was the year Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally “broke the back of inflation” in a way investors could acknowledge.</p><p><blockquote>1981 年,利率达到顶峰,因为那一年,美联储主席保罗-沃尔克(Paul Volcker)终于以投资者可以承认的方式 “打破了通货膨胀的脊梁”。</blockquote></p><p>Volcker’s efforts to kill off inflation, through a multi-year period of painfully high interest rates, were part of what cleaned out the debt and the leverage. The United States went through not one, but two recessions in the early 1980s, spaced about 14 months apart, as the price of borrowing went through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔克通过多年令人痛苦的高利率来抑制通货膨胀,这也是清理债务和杠杆的部分原因。20 世纪 80 年代初,随着借贷价格飙升,美国经历了两次衰退,相隔约 14 个月。</blockquote></p><p>But Volker’s successful anti-inflation campaign, coupled with low debt-and-leverage levels, was the very thing that allowed a new long-term debt cycle to kick off.</p><p><blockquote>但沃尔克成功的反通胀运动,加上低债务和低杠杆水平,正是新的长期债务周期得以启动的原因。</blockquote></p><p>The build-up of debt to GDP from 1980 onward, as shown in the FRED chart below, is a sort of inverted image of the falling 10-year yield. That is because, in a standard long-term debt cycle, debt levels go up as inflation and borrowing costs go down.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/078f1f48bf80854f84c01fc648e7b5f4\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The “bleak future” that Buffett warned of for fixed income investors relates to what happens when the long-term debt cycle reaches its farthest point.</p><p><blockquote>如下图 FRED 所示,自 1980 年以来,债务占 GDP 的增长是 10 年期国债收益率下降的一种倒置图像。这是因为,在标准的长期债务周期中,债务水平随着通货膨胀和借贷成本的下降而上升。巴菲特警告固定收益投资者的 “黯淡未来 ”与长期债务周期达到最远时会发生什么有关。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Think of a giant, slow-moving pendulum that swings in the same direction over a 40-plus-year period. Over that entire window of time, bond yields and inflation pressures are falling, even as debt and leverage levels rise.</p><p><blockquote>想象一个巨大的、缓慢移动的钟摆,在40多年的时间里朝同一个方向摆动。在整个时期内,尽管债务和杠杆水平上升,但债券收益率和通胀压力都在下降。</blockquote></p><p>Once the pendulum starts to swing the other way, a multi-decade trend in the opposite direction occurs. Instead of falling for decades on end, yields go into a pattern of rising for decades on end (which means bond prices fall); and instead of debt and leverage building up to ever-higher levels as a percentage of output over time, there is a far less pleasant multi-decade period where debt and leverage levels are cut back (or inflated away) to a lesser percentage of output over time, rolling back the previous extreme.</p><p><blockquote>一旦钟摆开始反向摆动,就会出现相反方向的几十年趋势。收益率不是连续几十年下降,而是进入了连续几十年上升的模式(这意味着债券价格下跌);随着时间的推移,债务和杠杆占产出的百分比并没有上升到越来越高的水平,而是在一个不太愉快的几十年里,随着时间的推移,债务和杠杆水平被削减(或膨胀)到较低的产出百分比,回滚之前的极端。</blockquote></p><p>Then, once the pendulum has swung all the way back, it swings forward yet again, a kind of permanent oscillation between high interest rates versus low, coupled with low debt levels versus high. And because a nation’s economy is immortal — assuming the nation continues to exist — these generational patterns of build-up and roll-back can repeat ad infinitum.</p><p><blockquote>然后,一旦钟摆一直向后摆动,它就会再次向前摆动,这是一种高利率与低利率、低债务水平与高债务水平之间的永久振荡。因为一个国家的经济是不朽的--假设这个国家继续存在--这些世代积累和倒退的模式可以无限重复。</blockquote></p><p>What a majority of investors haven’t yet realized is that their entire personal experience in markets — going all the way back to 1981 — is geared toward the pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者还没有意识到,他们个人在市场中的整个经历--可以追溯到 1981 年--都指向长期债务周期中令人愉快的一半。</blockquote></p><p>All that they know on a gut-feel basis — unless they were active market participants in the 1970s — is that left-to-right pendulum swing where interest rates fall, as debt and leverage rise and rise.</p><p><blockquote>他们凭直觉所知道的一切——除非他们在 20 世纪 70 年代是活跃的市场参与者——就是随着债务和杠杆不断上升,利率会下降的左右钟摆摆动。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett’s warning to fixed-income investors is a reminder we are headed for the less-pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle — the multi-decade period where interest rates rise and rise, and then rise some more, as governments, corporations, and consumers either actively reduce their debt loads or see the value of those debts inflated away.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对固定收益投资者的警告提醒我们,我们正走向长期债务周期中不太愉快的一半--几十年来,随着政府、企业和消费者要么积极减少债务负担,要么眼睁睁地看着这些债务的价值膨胀,利率不断上升,然后又上升更多。</blockquote></p><p>Then, too, inflation is a part of the process because the debt adjustment almost always happens more via inflation than hardcore belt-tightening: It is just easier to reduce the debt load via printing press, which reduces the percentage ratio of debt-to-output over time. That tendency also explains why inflation will likely roar higher again — with interest rates rising up with it — over the next decade or two (or three, or four).</p><p><blockquote>此外,通货膨胀也是这一过程的一部分,因为债务调整几乎总是更多地通过通货膨胀而不是铁杆勒紧裤腰带:通过印刷机减少债务负担更容易,这可以降低债务与产出的百分比随着时间的推移。这一趋势也解释了为什么通货膨胀可能会在未来一二十年(或三四年)再次飙升,利率也会随之上升。</blockquote></p><p>Just for fun, we took the 10-year yield chart and flipped the image horizontally (below), to create a visual picture of how the next 40 years might look if the long-term debt cycle retraced its steps perfectly. It’s never that simple, of course, but as a mental exercise, it’s worthwhile trying to imagine interest rates following a path like the one below.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31778f96af4d69be42e3fed9c5d32a1\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bottom line is that very few investors are ready for the world that is coming.</p><p><blockquote>为了好玩,我们拿了 10 年期收益率图表,并将图像水平翻转(如下),以创建一幅如果长期债务周期完美地回溯其步骤,未来 40 年可能会是什么样子的视觉画面。当然,这从来都不是那么简单,但作为一项脑力练习,值得试着想象利率沿着下面这条路径发展。底线是,很少有投资者为即将到来的世界做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>With “lower for longer” becoming “wrong and wronger” as the U.S. prepares for emerging-market-like levels of growth in the year ahead — and the Federal Reserve signaling it is fine with a jump in long-term yields, at least for now — dislocations in vulnerable areas of the stock market are likely just beginning.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国为未来一年类似新兴市场的增长水平做准备,“长期走低 ”正变得 “越来越错误”--美联储表示,至少目前来看,长期收益率的跃升是可以接受的--股市脆弱领域的混乱很可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p><i>Originally by Beverly Becker for TradeSmith.com</i>.</p><p><blockquote><i>最初由 Beverly Becker 为 TradeSmith.com 撰写</i>.</blockquote></p><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p><p><blockquote>本文表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见,不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点和意见。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-warning-from-warren-buffett%3A-were-a-long-way-from-1981-2021-03-04\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-warning-from-warren-buffett%3A-were-a-long-way-from-1981-2021-03-04","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112359794","content_text":"The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon mots and insights, has become a kind of annual tradition for much of the financial world. Analysts, money managers, journalists, and investors of all stripes tend to read it the weekend it comes out, even if they own no shares.Your editor is one such reader: Though never a shareholder, we’ve been perusing the Buffett letters for nearly 20 years. We also have all of the old letters on file, dating back long before we were born. The best one of all, in our view, is the Buffett Partnership letter covering 1965, available here.The 2021 letter felt somber and restrained compared to past years. This makes sense, given what America and the world had to go through in 2020.Still, in terms of pessimism and dark warnings — far from the normal fare for Buffett — this passage on the “bleak future” for fixed-income investors stood out:[B]onds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at year end – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.Per Buffett’s calculation, over the course of almost four decades — from September 1981 to year-end 2020 — the yield on the 10-year note fell by 94%.In regard to falling yields, here is another remarkable stat per Chris Bloomstran, the president and chief investment officer of Semper Augustus: As of Feb. 27, the price of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond had fallen by more than 16% in three months — a drop that erased 10 full years’ worth of coupon payments. Also per Bloomstran, the 10-year gave up 7 years’ worth of coupons in that time.Imagine clipping coupons on your government bonds for a full decade — then taking a hit on the principal worth all of the payments and then some, over the course of just 12 weeks. Now imagine trying to be a government bond investor moving forward.For holders of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the pain is increasing because the U.S. economy is reflating, powered by vaccine optimism, pent-up demand, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus. Economic growth of the rip-roaring variety is coming, with inflation to follow on the heels of that.If you’ll pardon the cheap rhyme, the interest-rate mantra “lower for longer” now looks “wrong and wronger.” Per data from Bespoke Investment Group, the 2021 sell-off in the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index has already produced the third-worst percentage since records began in 1988 — and the year is still young.Then, too, Buffett’s harkening back to 1981, and a 94% decline in yields over nearly 40 years, is a sobering reminder of how far the pendulum has swung. The chart below, via FRED, shows the four-decade journey of the 10-year yield from 1980 to today.It is hard to beat the 10-year yield for a vivid illustration of what Ray Dalio calls “the long-term debt cycle.”The Long-Term Debt Cycle is the cyclical pattern by which interest rates and inflation pressures tend to fall, even as debt and leverage levels rise, for decades at a time.At the beginning of the long-term debt cycle — which had its genesis in 1981 — inflation was sky-high, while debt and leverage levels were low.Interest rates peaked in 1981 because that was the year Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally “broke the back of inflation” in a way investors could acknowledge.Volcker’s efforts to kill off inflation, through a multi-year period of painfully high interest rates, were part of what cleaned out the debt and the leverage. The United States went through not one, but two recessions in the early 1980s, spaced about 14 months apart, as the price of borrowing went through the roof.But Volker’s successful anti-inflation campaign, coupled with low debt-and-leverage levels, was the very thing that allowed a new long-term debt cycle to kick off.The build-up of debt to GDP from 1980 onward, as shown in the FRED chart below, is a sort of inverted image of the falling 10-year yield. That is because, in a standard long-term debt cycle, debt levels go up as inflation and borrowing costs go down.The “bleak future” that Buffett warned of for fixed income investors relates to what happens when the long-term debt cycle reaches its farthest point.Think of a giant, slow-moving pendulum that swings in the same direction over a 40-plus-year period. Over that entire window of time, bond yields and inflation pressures are falling, even as debt and leverage levels rise.Once the pendulum starts to swing the other way, a multi-decade trend in the opposite direction occurs. Instead of falling for decades on end, yields go into a pattern of rising for decades on end (which means bond prices fall); and instead of debt and leverage building up to ever-higher levels as a percentage of output over time, there is a far less pleasant multi-decade period where debt and leverage levels are cut back (or inflated away) to a lesser percentage of output over time, rolling back the previous extreme.Then, once the pendulum has swung all the way back, it swings forward yet again, a kind of permanent oscillation between high interest rates versus low, coupled with low debt levels versus high. And because a nation’s economy is immortal — assuming the nation continues to exist — these generational patterns of build-up and roll-back can repeat ad infinitum.What a majority of investors haven’t yet realized is that their entire personal experience in markets — going all the way back to 1981 — is geared toward the pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle.All that they know on a gut-feel basis — unless they were active market participants in the 1970s — is that left-to-right pendulum swing where interest rates fall, as debt and leverage rise and rise.Buffett’s warning to fixed-income investors is a reminder we are headed for the less-pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle — the multi-decade period where interest rates rise and rise, and then rise some more, as governments, corporations, and consumers either actively reduce their debt loads or see the value of those debts inflated away.Then, too, inflation is a part of the process because the debt adjustment almost always happens more via inflation than hardcore belt-tightening: It is just easier to reduce the debt load via printing press, which reduces the percentage ratio of debt-to-output over time. That tendency also explains why inflation will likely roar higher again — with interest rates rising up with it — over the next decade or two (or three, or four).Just for fun, we took the 10-year yield chart and flipped the image horizontally (below), to create a visual picture of how the next 40 years might look if the long-term debt cycle retraced its steps perfectly. It’s never that simple, of course, but as a mental exercise, it’s worthwhile trying to imagine interest rates following a path like the one below.The bottom line is that very few investors are ready for the world that is coming.With “lower for longer” becoming “wrong and wronger” as the U.S. prepares for emerging-market-like levels of growth in the year ahead — and the Federal Reserve signaling it is fine with a jump in long-term yields, at least for now — dislocations in vulnerable areas of the stock market are likely just beginning.Originally by Beverly Becker for TradeSmith.com.The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364009916,"gmtCreate":1614783339135,"gmtModify":1703481102112,"author":{"id":"3565691414064920","authorId":"3565691414064920","name":"Isabelkhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d46d565377e3b9597297e9ba8dff8e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565691414064920","authorIdStr":"3565691414064920"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364009916","repostId":"1130537334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130537334","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614782065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130537334?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-03 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%<blockquote>周三美股低开;道指下跌0.11%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130537334","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment d","content":"<p>(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>(3月3日)华尔街主要指数周三低开,因令人失望的2月份私人就业数据打击了人们对新冠疫苗迅速推出推动经济快速反弹的热情。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌0.11%,标普500下跌0.12%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e844edb04216bd6ef160e1ddfc0f5\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%<blockquote>周三美股低开;道指下跌0.11%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%<blockquote>周三美股低开;道指下跌0.11%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>(3月3日)华尔街主要指数周三低开,因令人失望的2月份私人就业数据打击了人们对新冠疫苗迅速推出推动经济快速反弹的热情。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌0.11%,标普500下跌0.12%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.14%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e844edb04216bd6ef160e1ddfc0f5\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130537334","content_text":"(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364000818,"gmtCreate":1614783314334,"gmtModify":1703481101242,"author":{"id":"3565691414064920","authorId":"3565691414064920","name":"Isabelkhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d46d565377e3b9597297e9ba8dff8e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565691414064920","authorIdStr":"3565691414064920"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nani","listText":"Nani","text":"Nani","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364000818","repostId":"1172714394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172714394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614783206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172714394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-03 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen stock soars after partner Bharat Biotech COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows 81% efficacy<blockquote>合作伙伴Bharat Biotech COVID-19候选疫苗显示出81%的功效后,Ocugen股价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172714394","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 3) Shares of Histogenics soared 41.0%, after the biopharmaceutical company said its co-develo","content":"<p>(March 3) Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">Histogenics</a> soared 41.0%, after the biopharmaceutical company said its co-development partner Bharat Biotech released an interim analysis of its Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, COVAXIN, which demonstrated efficacy of 81%.</p><p><blockquote>(3月3日)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">组织发生学</a>飙升41.0%,此前该生物制药公司表示,其共同开发合作伙伴Bharat Biotech发布了对其COVID-19候选疫苗科瓦克辛的3期试验的中期分析,该试验显示疗效为81%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ef5f4dcb688419ea9c6f73c920ffb8\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Bharat's Phase 3 trial in India enrolled 25,800 participants aged 18 to 91, and the first interim analysis is based on 43 cases. A review of the safety database showed severe, serious and medically attended adverse events occurred at low levels and balanced between vaccine and placebo groups.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的3期试验招募了25800名年龄在18至91岁的参与者,首次中期分析基于43例病例。对安全性数据库的审查显示,严重、严重和医疗护理的不良事件发生率较低,并且在疫苗组和安慰剂组之间保持平衡。</blockquote></p><p>\"These results, which in part suggest significant immunogenicity against the rapidly emerging UK variant, represent an additional step towards outlining the regulatory pathway for EUA and approval in the United States,\" said Ocugen Chief Executive Shankar Musunuri.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen首席执行官Shankar Musunuri表示:“这些结果部分表明针对快速出现的英国变种具有显着的免疫原性,这代表着朝着概述EUA和美国批准的监管途径又迈出了一步。”</blockquote></p><p>\"COVAXIN, a whole virion based vaccine candidate, is designed to fill a significant unmet need in our national arsenal of vaccines against COVID-19.\" Ocugen's stock has skyrocketed 3,071.5% over the past three months, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF has tacked on 6.8% and the S&P 500 has gained 5.6%.</p><p><blockquote>“科瓦克辛是一种基于整个病毒体的候选疫苗,旨在满足我们国家针对COVID-19的疫苗库中尚未满足的重大需求。”Ocugen的股价在过去三个月内飙升了3,071.5%,而iShares纳斯达克生物技术ETF上涨了6.8%,标普500上涨了5.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen stock soars after partner Bharat Biotech COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows 81% efficacy<blockquote>合作伙伴Bharat Biotech COVID-19候选疫苗显示出81%的功效后,Ocugen股价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen stock soars after partner Bharat Biotech COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows 81% efficacy<blockquote>合作伙伴Bharat Biotech COVID-19候选疫苗显示出81%的功效后,Ocugen股价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 3) Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">Histogenics</a> soared 41.0%, after the biopharmaceutical company said its co-development partner Bharat Biotech released an interim analysis of its Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, COVAXIN, which demonstrated efficacy of 81%.</p><p><blockquote>(3月3日)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">组织发生学</a>飙升41.0%,此前该生物制药公司表示,其共同开发合作伙伴Bharat Biotech发布了对其COVID-19候选疫苗科瓦克辛的3期试验的中期分析,该试验显示疗效为81%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ef5f4dcb688419ea9c6f73c920ffb8\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Bharat's Phase 3 trial in India enrolled 25,800 participants aged 18 to 91, and the first interim analysis is based on 43 cases. A review of the safety database showed severe, serious and medically attended adverse events occurred at low levels and balanced between vaccine and placebo groups.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的3期试验招募了25800名年龄在18至91岁的参与者,首次中期分析基于43例病例。对安全性数据库的审查显示,严重、严重和医疗护理的不良事件发生率较低,并且在疫苗组和安慰剂组之间保持平衡。</blockquote></p><p>\"These results, which in part suggest significant immunogenicity against the rapidly emerging UK variant, represent an additional step towards outlining the regulatory pathway for EUA and approval in the United States,\" said Ocugen Chief Executive Shankar Musunuri.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen首席执行官Shankar Musunuri表示:“这些结果部分表明针对快速出现的英国变种具有显着的免疫原性,这代表着朝着概述EUA和美国批准的监管途径又迈出了一步。”</blockquote></p><p>\"COVAXIN, a whole virion based vaccine candidate, is designed to fill a significant unmet need in our national arsenal of vaccines against COVID-19.\" Ocugen's stock has skyrocketed 3,071.5% over the past three months, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF has tacked on 6.8% and the S&P 500 has gained 5.6%.</p><p><blockquote>“科瓦克辛是一种基于整个病毒体的候选疫苗,旨在满足我们国家针对COVID-19的疫苗库中尚未满足的重大需求。”Ocugen的股价在过去三个月内飙升了3,071.5%,而iShares纳斯达克生物技术ETF上涨了6.8%,标普500上涨了5.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172714394","content_text":"(March 3) Shares of Histogenics soared 41.0%, after the biopharmaceutical company said its co-development partner Bharat Biotech released an interim analysis of its Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, COVAXIN, which demonstrated efficacy of 81%.Bharat's Phase 3 trial in India enrolled 25,800 participants aged 18 to 91, and the first interim analysis is based on 43 cases. A review of the safety database showed severe, serious and medically attended adverse events occurred at low levels and balanced between vaccine and placebo groups.\"These results, which in part suggest significant immunogenicity against the rapidly emerging UK variant, represent an additional step towards outlining the regulatory pathway for EUA and approval in the United States,\" said Ocugen Chief Executive Shankar Musunuri.\"COVAXIN, a whole virion based vaccine candidate, is designed to fill a significant unmet need in our national arsenal of vaccines against COVID-19.\" Ocugen's stock has skyrocketed 3,071.5% over the past three months, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF has tacked on 6.8% and the S&P 500 has gained 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