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- 大萌萌萌萌哒大萌萌萌萌哒
  ·2023-10-24
  iPhone降价的是哪个平台？多多吗？
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 大萌萌萌萌哒大萌萌萌萌哒
  ·2022-08-05
  谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。
  市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场
  市场不再相信美联储。
  市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场
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- 大萌萌萌萌哒大萌萌萌萌哒
  ·2021-02-10
  说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120012174","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场不再相信美联储。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。</p><p>然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。</p><p>昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。</p><p>媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称<b>“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”，并且重申，她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。</b></p><p>此外她还强调称，加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”：</p><blockquote>我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的，我们会达到那里，我们会看到。</blockquote><p>她还补充道：</p><blockquote><b>利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调</b>，也许到那时我们会暂停，然后我们可以开始把利率降下来，但是现在很难设想到那么远。</blockquote><p>Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前，她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。</p><p>总而言之，<b>Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点，旨在告诫市场，不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心，不要再“唱反调”。</b></p><p>但现在问题就是，市场真的会听吗？</p><p>市场不再相信美联储</p><p>市场与美联储之间的大战，7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。</p><p><b>在此之前，市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。</b></p><p>当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后，在今年早些时候，美联储开始正视通胀压力。</p><p>当时美联储告诉市场，控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是，通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境，从而提高借贷成本，抑制投资和需求，消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”，在持续一段时间之后，最终实现物价平稳。</p><p><b>其中，美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中，之后再逐步传递至实体经济。</b></p><p>由此可见，市场在其中的地位举足轻重。</p><p>起初，市场接受了这套说辞。</p><p>所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升，接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击，接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象，认为一切都是为了控制通胀。</p><p>然而他们看到的结果是，美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%，再度刷新40年新高。</p><p><b>美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽，市场不再相信美联储。</b></p><p>因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后，立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。</p><p>市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策，他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。</p><p>在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。</p><p>到这个时候，市场欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局。</p><p>然而他们可能没想到的是，他们抗争得越久，结局就会越惨烈。</p><p>顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛</p><p>因为美联储不会放弃。</p><p>当市场押注美联储“转向”，从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时，相当于放松了金融市场环境。</p><p><b>而这导致的后果是，高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”，更多需求被激发出来，缓和了经济衰退风险，抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。</b></p><p>而且讽刺的是，这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”，就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动，却是在缓和这种风险。</p><p><b>总之，如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策，那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进，通过继续加息来打击市场，直到市场屈服。</b></p><p>而这个过程注定是惨烈的。</p><p>因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀，进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固，导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。</p><p>而等到市场终于无力抵抗，愿意和美联储达成合作时，一切只会变得非常糟糕。</p><p>而且抵抗时间越长，情况越糟糕。</p><p>到时候，已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利，摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。</p><p>顽强抵抗，等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 11:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666843","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1120012174","content_text":"在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”，并且重申，她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。此外她还强调称，加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”：我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的，我们会达到那里，我们会看到。她还补充道：利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调，也许到那时我们会暂停，然后我们可以开始把利率降下来，但是现在很难设想到那么远。Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前，她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。总而言之，Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点，旨在告诫市场，不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心，不要再“唱反调”。但现在问题就是，市场真的会听吗？市场不再相信美联储市场与美联储之间的大战，7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。在此之前，市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后，在今年早些时候，美联储开始正视通胀压力。当时美联储告诉市场，控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是，通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境，从而提高借贷成本，抑制投资和需求，消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”，在持续一段时间之后，最终实现物价平稳。其中，美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中，之后再逐步传递至实体经济。由此可见，市场在其中的地位举足轻重。起初，市场接受了这套说辞。所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升，接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击，接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象，认为一切都是为了控制通胀。然而他们看到的结果是，美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%，再度刷新40年新高。美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽，市场不再相信美联储。因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后，立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策，他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。到这个时候，市场欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局。然而他们可能没想到的是，他们抗争得越久，结局就会越惨烈。顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛因为美联储不会放弃。当市场押注美联储“转向”，从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时，相当于放松了金融市场环境。而这导致的后果是，高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”，更多需求被激发出来，缓和了经济衰退风险，抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。而且讽刺的是，这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”，就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动，却是在缓和这种风险。总之，如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策，那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进，通过继续加息来打击市场，直到市场屈服。而这个过程注定是惨烈的。因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀，进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固，导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。而等到市场终于无力抵抗，愿意和美联储达成合作时，一切只会变得非常糟糕。而且抵抗时间越长，情况越糟糕。到时候，已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利，摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。顽强抵抗，等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381672348,"gmtCreate":1612966619684,"gmtModify":1703767591502,"author":{"id":"3566963788402909","authorId":"3566963788402909","name":"大萌萌萌萌哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b9cf0d5159a0e4f722ff8988925249","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566963788402909","authorIdStr":"3566963788402909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381672348","repostId":"1126709563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}