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- 横王發横王發
  ·2021-06-26
  Wow
  US IPO Weekly Recap: Doximity pops more than 100% in a 16 IPO week
  16 IPOs went public in another active week for the IPO market, led by digital physicians network Dox
  US IPO Weekly Recap: Doximity pops more than 100% in a 16 IPO week
  414 评论
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- 横王發横王發
  ·2021-06-23
  Wow
  HK property agent Midland hits 28-month high on profit forecast
  ** Shares of property agent Midland Holdings Ltd rise as much as 12.9% to HK$1.75, their highest sin
  HK property agent Midland hits 28-month high on profit forecast
  329 评论
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- 横王發横王發
  ·2021-06-22
  That’s good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  178 评论
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- 横王發横王發
  ·2021-06-22
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  361 评论
  4
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- 横王發横王發
  ·2021-06-22
  Wow
  Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next
  Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's "Taper Tantrum" spa
  Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next
  262 评论
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The week’s IPOs were joined by four SPACs, as well as one postponement, Chinese social networking platform&nbsp;<b>Soulgate</b>(SSR).</p>\n<p><b>Doximity</b>&nbsp;(DOCS) priced above the range to raise $606 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. While growth may slow as conditions normalize post-pandemic, the company has a sticky customer base and strong track record of profitability. Doximity finished up 115%.</p>\n<p>The largest deal of the week, Chinese freight platform&nbsp;<b>Full Truck Alliance</b>(YMM) priced at the high end to raise $1.6 billion at a $20.8 billion market cap. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21. The company is unprofitable though free cash flow turned positive in 2020. Full Truck finished up 4%.</p>\n<p>Integrated insurer&nbsp;<b>Bright Health Group</b>(BHG) downsized and priced below the range to raise $924 million at a $12.7 billion market cap. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding. However, the company is unprofitable, and its medical cost ratio has increased over the last several years. Bright Health finished down 4%.</p>\n<p><b>Confluent</b>(CFLT) priced above the range to raise $828 million at an $11.7 billion market cap. Founded by the original creators of Apache Kafka, Confluent’s data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company has demonstrated growth but S&amp;M spending has widened losses. Confluent finished up 28%.</p>\n<p>Car wash brand&nbsp;<b>Mister Car Wash</b>(MCW) priced at the low end to raise $563 million at a $4.9 billion market cap. Profitable with strong margins and solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company is slightly concentrated in certain states, and it is leveraged post-IPO. Mister Car Wash finished up 35%.</p>\n<p>HR services provider&nbsp;<b>First Advantage</b>(FA) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $383 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. Profitable with positive cash flow, First Advantage provides solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. The company operates in a highly competitive market, and revenue depends on hiring rates. First Advantage finished up 37%.</p>\n<p>Chinese grocery delivery platform&nbsp;<b>Missfresh</b>(MF) priced at the low end to raise $273 million at a $3.2 billion market cap. Missfresh’s mobile app and Mini Program allow consumers to purchase groceries from their phone, which are then delivered to their door by a delivery driver. The company is a leader in its market, though it is unprofitable, and revenue declined in the 1Q21. Missfresh finished down 26%.</p>\n<p>Customer experience software provider&nbsp;<b>Sprinklr</b>(CXM) downsized and priced below the range to raise $266 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has improved its gross margins, though it is historically unprofitable due to high S&amp;M costs. Sprinklr finished up 28%.</p>\n<p>Gene editing biotech&nbsp;<b>Graphite Bio</b>(GRPH) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $238 million at a $999 million market cap. Graphite's lead candidate aims to correct the mutation that causes sickle cell disease and restore normal adult hemoglobin expression. The company has received IND clearance and intends to enroll a Phase 1/2 trial in the 2H21, with initial data expected by the end of 2022. Graphite finished up 9%.</p>\n<p>Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Monte Rosa Therapeutics</b>(GLUE) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $222 million at a $911 million market cap. The company plans to select one of its selective, orally bioavailable GSPT1-directed MGD molecules for use in a genetically-defined subset of non-small cell lung cancer patients by the 2H21, and submit an IND in the 1H22. Monte Rosa finished down 1%.</p>\n<p>Irish DMT biotech&nbsp;<b>GH Research</b>(GHRS) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $160 million at an $809 million market cap. The company is developing its proprietary 5-MeO-DMT compound in a Phase 2 trial in the Netherlands for patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression. GH Research finished up 20%.</p>\n<p>Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Elevation Oncology</b>(ELEV) priced at the midpoint to raise $100 million at a $403 million market cap. Elevation's lead program is focused on neuregulin-1, or NRG1, fusions. It has initiated a Phase 2 trial of seribantumab, an anti-HER3 monoclonal antibody, in advanced solid tumors harboring an NRG1 fusion. Elevation finished down 29%.</p>\n<p>Biopharmaceutical reagents provider&nbsp;<b>Alpha Teknova</b>(TKNO) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $96 million at a $470 million market cap. Alpha Teknova provides critical reagents that enable the discovery, research, development and production of biopharmaceutical products. As of March 31, 2021, Alpha Teknova had over 3,000 active customers. Alpha Teknova finished up 56%.</p>\n<p><b>Miromatrix Medical</b>&nbsp;(MIRO) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $43 million at a $191 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product. Miromatrix finished up 42%.</p>\n<p>Antibiotic biotech&nbsp;<b>Acurx Pharmaceuticals</b>(ACXP) priced at the midpoint to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year. Acurx finished up 32%.</p>\n<p>CBD products maker&nbsp;<b>Grove</b>(GRVI) priced at the midpoint to raise $11 million at a $79 million market cap. Fast growing and profitable in the 9mo FY21, Grove develops, produces, markets, and sells raw materials, white label products, and end consumer products containing the industrial hemp plant extract, Cannabidiol (CBD). Grove finished up 57%.</p>\n<p>Four SPACs raised $520 million led by&nbsp;<b>FinTech Acquisition VI</b>(FTVIU), which raised $220 million.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddaee6ee8ea0594af65c20afe2b09fb2\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"708\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adbfd8143d6b3c07799a5b5568126eae\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"498\"></p>\n<p>23 IPOs submitted initial filings. Chinese vaping brand&nbsp;<b>Aspire Global</b>(ASPG) plans to raise $161 million. Fitness franchise&nbsp;<b>F45 Training</b>(FXLV), luxury social club operator&nbsp;<b>Membership Collective</b>(MCG), soft drink maker&nbsp;<b>Zevia</b>(ZVIA), specialty insurer&nbsp;<b>Ryan Specialty Group</b>(RYAN), ocular medical device maker&nbsp;<b>Sight Sciences</b>(SGHT), Italy-based<b>Stevanato Group</b>(STVN), real estate manager&nbsp;<b>Bridge Investment Group</b>(BRDG), consumer banking platform&nbsp;<b>Blend Labs</b>(BLND), database developer<b>Couchbase</b>(BASE), interior design software provider&nbsp;<b>Manycore Tech</b>(KOOL), Chinese tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Spark Education</b>(SPRK), oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Vividion Therapeutics</b>(VVID), e-commerce platform&nbsp;<b>VTEX</b>(VTEX), digital marketing services provider&nbsp;<b>Gambling.com Group</b>(GAMB), bone marrow disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Imago BioSciences</b>(IMGO), French biotech&nbsp;<b>Dynacure</b>(DYCU), microbial testing device provider&nbsp;<b>Rapid Micro Biosystems</b>(RPID), legal software provider&nbsp;<b>CS Disco</b>(LAW), oncology biotechs&nbsp;<b>Erasca</b>(ERAS) and&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL), and fitness franchisor&nbsp;<b>Xponential Fitness</b>(XPOF) all filed to raise $100 million. Medical imaging software provider&nbsp;<b>Perspectum Group</b>(SCAN) filed to raise $75 million.</p>\n<p>10 SPACs submitted initial filings led by Sagansky and Sloan’s&nbsp;<b>Spinning Eagle Acquisition</b>(SPNGU), which plans to raise $2 billion.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5405c3b71416d44598b8debbc72ba0c6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"707\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d74d7af7f2c5dced4672868bf036d03\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"663\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4854a0e989f2eb5923924d3cdf1083\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"554\">\n<p>This past week, Renaissance Capital released its2Q 2021 US IPO Market Review, exploring the second quarter’s record-breaking activity, best and worst performers, and outlook for the 3Q.</p>\n<p><b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p>\n<p>The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr></tr>\n </thead>\n</table>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Weekly Recap: Doximity pops more than 100% in a 16 IPO week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Weekly Recap: Doximity pops more than 100% in a 16 IPO week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 08:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83314/US-IPO-Weekly-Recap-Doximity-pops-more-than-100-in-a-16-IPO-week><strong>Renaissance Capital</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>16 IPOs went public in another active week for the IPO market, led by digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS), which soared 104% in its debut. The week’s IPOs were joined by four SPACs, as well as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83314/US-IPO-Weekly-Recap-Doximity-pops-more-than-100-in-a-16-IPO-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ACXP":"Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC*","YMM":"满帮","TKNO":"Alpha Teknova, Inc.","GHRS":"GH Research PLC","CFLT":"Confluent, Inc.","GLUE":"Monte Rosa Therapeutics","DOCS":"Doximity, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MCW":"Mister Car Wash, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CXM":"Sprinklr, Inc.","FA":"First Advantage Corp.",".DJI":"道琼斯","ELEV":"Elevation Oncology, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83314/US-IPO-Weekly-Recap-Doximity-pops-more-than-100-in-a-16-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134306371","content_text":"16 IPOs went public in another active week for the IPO market, led by digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS), which soared 104% in its debut. The week’s IPOs were joined by four SPACs, as well as one postponement, Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR).\nDoximity (DOCS) priced above the range to raise $606 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. While growth may slow as conditions normalize post-pandemic, the company has a sticky customer base and strong track record of profitability. Doximity finished up 115%.\nThe largest deal of the week, Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) priced at the high end to raise $1.6 billion at a $20.8 billion market cap. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21. The company is unprofitable though free cash flow turned positive in 2020. Full Truck finished up 4%.\nIntegrated insurer Bright Health Group(BHG) downsized and priced below the range to raise $924 million at a $12.7 billion market cap. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding. However, the company is unprofitable, and its medical cost ratio has increased over the last several years. Bright Health finished down 4%.\nConfluent(CFLT) priced above the range to raise $828 million at an $11.7 billion market cap. Founded by the original creators of Apache Kafka, Confluent’s data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company has demonstrated growth but S&M spending has widened losses. Confluent finished up 28%.\nCar wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW) priced at the low end to raise $563 million at a $4.9 billion market cap. Profitable with strong margins and solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company is slightly concentrated in certain states, and it is leveraged post-IPO. Mister Car Wash finished up 35%.\nHR services provider First Advantage(FA) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $383 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. Profitable with positive cash flow, First Advantage provides solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. The company operates in a highly competitive market, and revenue depends on hiring rates. First Advantage finished up 37%.\nChinese grocery delivery platform Missfresh(MF) priced at the low end to raise $273 million at a $3.2 billion market cap. Missfresh’s mobile app and Mini Program allow consumers to purchase groceries from their phone, which are then delivered to their door by a delivery driver. The company is a leader in its market, though it is unprofitable, and revenue declined in the 1Q21. Missfresh finished down 26%.\nCustomer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) downsized and priced below the range to raise $266 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has improved its gross margins, though it is historically unprofitable due to high S&M costs. Sprinklr finished up 28%.\nGene editing biotech Graphite Bio(GRPH) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $238 million at a $999 million market cap. Graphite's lead candidate aims to correct the mutation that causes sickle cell disease and restore normal adult hemoglobin expression. The company has received IND clearance and intends to enroll a Phase 1/2 trial in the 2H21, with initial data expected by the end of 2022. Graphite finished up 9%.\nOncology biotech Monte Rosa Therapeutics(GLUE) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $222 million at a $911 million market cap. The company plans to select one of its selective, orally bioavailable GSPT1-directed MGD molecules for use in a genetically-defined subset of non-small cell lung cancer patients by the 2H21, and submit an IND in the 1H22. Monte Rosa finished down 1%.\nIrish DMT biotech GH Research(GHRS) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $160 million at an $809 million market cap. The company is developing its proprietary 5-MeO-DMT compound in a Phase 2 trial in the Netherlands for patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression. GH Research finished up 20%.\nOncology biotech Elevation Oncology(ELEV) priced at the midpoint to raise $100 million at a $403 million market cap. Elevation's lead program is focused on neuregulin-1, or NRG1, fusions. It has initiated a Phase 2 trial of seribantumab, an anti-HER3 monoclonal antibody, in advanced solid tumors harboring an NRG1 fusion. Elevation finished down 29%.\nBiopharmaceutical reagents provider Alpha Teknova(TKNO) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $96 million at a $470 million market cap. Alpha Teknova provides critical reagents that enable the discovery, research, development and production of biopharmaceutical products. As of March 31, 2021, Alpha Teknova had over 3,000 active customers. Alpha Teknova finished up 56%.\nMiromatrix Medical (MIRO) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $43 million at a $191 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product. Miromatrix finished up 42%.\nAntibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP) priced at the midpoint to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year. Acurx finished up 32%.\nCBD products maker Grove(GRVI) priced at the midpoint to raise $11 million at a $79 million market cap. Fast growing and profitable in the 9mo FY21, Grove develops, produces, markets, and sells raw materials, white label products, and end consumer products containing the industrial hemp plant extract, Cannabidiol (CBD). Grove finished up 57%.\nFour SPACs raised $520 million led by FinTech Acquisition VI(FTVIU), which raised $220 million.\n\n23 IPOs submitted initial filings. Chinese vaping brand Aspire Global(ASPG) plans to raise $161 million. Fitness franchise F45 Training(FXLV), luxury social club operator Membership Collective(MCG), soft drink maker Zevia(ZVIA), specialty insurer Ryan Specialty Group(RYAN), ocular medical device maker Sight Sciences(SGHT), Italy-basedStevanato Group(STVN), real estate manager Bridge Investment Group(BRDG), consumer banking platform Blend Labs(BLND), database developerCouchbase(BASE), interior design software provider Manycore Tech(KOOL), Chinese tutoring platform Spark Education(SPRK), oncology biotech Vividion Therapeutics(VVID), e-commerce platform VTEX(VTEX), digital marketing services provider Gambling.com Group(GAMB), bone marrow disease biotech Imago BioSciences(IMGO), French biotech Dynacure(DYCU), microbial testing device provider Rapid Micro Biosystems(RPID), legal software provider CS Disco(LAW), oncology biotechs Erasca(ERAS) and Candel Therapeutics(CADL), and fitness franchisor Xponential Fitness(XPOF) all filed to raise $100 million. Medical imaging software provider Perspectum Group(SCAN) filed to raise $75 million.\n10 SPACs submitted initial filings led by Sagansky and Sloan’s Spinning Eagle Acquisition(SPNGU), which plans to raise $2 billion.\n\n\n\nThis past week, Renaissance Capital released its2Q 2021 US IPO Market Review, exploring the second quarter’s record-breaking activity, best and worst performers, and outlook for the 3Q.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ACXP":0.9,"BHG":0.9,"CFLT":0.9,"CXM":0.9,"DOCS":0.9,"ELEV":0.9,"FA":0.9,"FTVIU":0.9,"GHRS":0.9,"GLUE":0.9,"GRPH":0.9,"GRVI":0.9,"MCW":0.9,"MF":0.9,"MIRO":0.9,"TKNO":0.9,"YMM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123611393,"gmtCreate":1624420320412,"gmtModify":1634006360630,"author":{"id":"3568355731782322","authorId":"3568355731782322","name":"横王發","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568355731782322","authorIdStr":"3568355731782322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123611393","repostId":"2145306443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145306443","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624415718,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145306443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"HK property agent Midland hits 28-month high on profit forecast","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145306443","media":"Reuters","summary":"** Shares of property agent Midland Holdings Ltd rise as much as 12.9% to HK$1.75, their highest sin","content":"<p>** Shares of property agent Midland Holdings Ltd rise as much as 12.9% to HK$1.75, their highest since February 2019</p>\n<p>** Stock on course for the best day since Nov. 24; the ninth-biggest percentage gainer on the Hong Kong bourse</p>\n<p>** Co expects a net profit for the six months ending June compared to HK$24 mln ($3.1 mln) loss a year ago ()</p>\n<p>** Attributes performance to an increase in market share in Hong Kong and a rebound in the residential property market</p>\n<p>** Says it recorded a net profit of HK$160 mln in the first five months of 2021</p>\n<p>** The Hong Kong Hang Seng sub-index tracking property firms</p>\n<p>eases 0.3%, while the benchmark index climbs 0.5%</p>\n<p>** As of last close, stock had soared 109.5% this year </p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HK property agent Midland hits 28-month high on profit forecast</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHK property agent Midland hits 28-month high on profit forecast\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>** Shares of property agent Midland Holdings Ltd rise as much as 12.9% to HK$1.75, their highest since February 2019</p>\n<p>** Stock on course for the best day since Nov. 24; the ninth-biggest percentage gainer on the Hong Kong bourse</p>\n<p>** Co expects a net profit for the six months ending June compared to HK$24 mln ($3.1 mln) loss a year ago ()</p>\n<p>** Attributes performance to an increase in market share in Hong Kong and a rebound in the residential property market</p>\n<p>** Says it recorded a net profit of HK$160 mln in the first five months of 2021</p>\n<p>** The Hong Kong Hang Seng sub-index tracking property firms</p>\n<p>eases 0.3%, while the benchmark index climbs 0.5%</p>\n<p>** As of last close, stock had soared 109.5% this year </p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01200":"美联集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145306443","content_text":"** Shares of property agent Midland Holdings Ltd rise as much as 12.9% to HK$1.75, their highest since February 2019\n** Stock on course for the best day since Nov. 24; the ninth-biggest percentage gainer on the Hong Kong bourse\n** Co expects a net profit for the six months ending June compared to HK$24 mln ($3.1 mln) loss a year ago ()\n** Attributes performance to an increase in market share in Hong Kong and a rebound in the residential property market\n** Says it recorded a net profit of HK$160 mln in the first five months of 2021\n** The Hong Kong Hang Seng sub-index tracking property firms\neases 0.3%, while the benchmark index climbs 0.5%\n** As of last close, stock had soared 109.5% this year","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01200":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129020452,"gmtCreate":1624345722576,"gmtModify":1634007465051,"author":{"id":"3568355731782322","authorId":"3568355731782322","name":"横王發","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568355731782322","authorIdStr":"3568355731782322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That’s good","listText":"That’s good","text":"That’s good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129020452","repostId":"2145822032","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129020081,"gmtCreate":1624345628343,"gmtModify":1634007465524,"author":{"id":"3568355731782322","authorId":"3568355731782322","name":"横王發","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568355731782322","authorIdStr":"3568355731782322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129020081","repostId":"2145628031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129064733,"gmtCreate":1624345514722,"gmtModify":1634007466019,"author":{"id":"3568355731782322","authorId":"3568355731782322","name":"横王發","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568355731782322","authorIdStr":"3568355731782322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129064733","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}