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- HarviHarvi
  ·2021-03-23
  Thanks for sharing the insight.
  Here’s more evidence that the next decade for stocks won’t be as good as the last
  Expect gains from equities to be thin but still beat inflation and bonds Though the U.S. stock marke
  Here’s more evidence that the next decade for stocks won’t be as good as the last
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- HarviHarvi
  ·2021-03-07
  Thanks for sharing!
  Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking
  These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock
  Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking
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- HarviHarvi
  ·2021-03-03
  Thanks for sharing. Great insight!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HarviHarvi
  ·2021-02-27
  All these shall pass with better days ahead!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HarviHarvi
  ·2021-02-17
  Anyone knows why $FIT Hon Teng(06088)$is rallying?
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for sharing the insight.","listText":"Thanks for sharing the insight.","text":"Thanks for sharing the insight.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353261820","repostId":"1133296026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133296026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616486604,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133296026?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s more evidence that the next decade for stocks won’t be as good as the last","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133296026","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expect gains from equities to be thin but still beat inflation and bonds\nThough the U.S. stock marke","content":"<p>Expect gains from equities to be thin but still beat inflation and bonds</p>\n<p>Though the U.S. stock market may win its current battle with the bond market, it could lose the war.</p>\n<p>Based on a simple regression model built on the historical relationship between stocks, bonds, interest rates, and inflation, investors can expect stocks to perform about 3.3 percentage points better than bonds annually over the coming decade. But that doesn’t mean equities will produce a return that is anything close to their historical average.</p>\n<p>Currently, for example, the bond market recently signaled that the 10-year Treasury&nbsp;will produce an inflation-adjusted loss of 0.7 percentage points annualized over the next decade. (That’s the difference between the 10-year yield and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.) Assuming the econometric model is right, that means U.S. stocks will beat inflation by 2.6 annualized percentage points between now and 2031 — only slightly more than a third of its long-term average.</p>\n<p>What this in effect means: While the stock market may be overvalued, the bond market is even more so. How you respond is therefore a function of whether you base your asset allocation on relative or absolute returns.</p>\n<p>One who has made a big splash recently focusing on stocks in relative terms is Robert Shiller, the Yale University finance professor and Nobel laureate. He argues that&nbsp;stocks’ otherwise expensive valuationsare cheap when viewed in relation to today’s rock-bottom interest rates.</p>\n<p>Shiller’s arguments raise more than just a few eyebrows, since for years he was assumed to be solidly in the bearish camp. His Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE), otherwise known as the Shiller P/E, has been well above-average for several years now. It currently is higher than 98% of all monthly readings since 1881, exceeded only by the even-loftier levels registered at the top of the internet bubble in the late 1990s.</p>\n<p>Both perspectives can be correct. Stocks may be cheap relative to bonds, even if they are expensive in their own right.</p>\n<p>This distinction between relative and absolute is illustrated by the chart below. The data points in the chart were calculated by Elroy Dimson, a professor at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School and chairman of its Centre for Endowment Management. Dimson also is co-author of Credit Suisse’s&nbsp;Global Investment Returns Yearbook, which is based on the complete return histories for the stock and bond markets in 23 different countries dating back to 1900.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a28df2072c9966827b23640005b9882\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"874\"></p>\n<p>Dimson took all the countries and years in his database, a total of 2,382 separate observations, and segregated them into eight groups: The first and eighth contained the 5% of country-years with the lowest and highest real rates, respectively. Groups 2 through 7 contained successive 15% of the observations. For each group, he calculated bonds’ and stocks’ average real returns over the subsequent five years.</p>\n<p>Several stark patterns are evident from the chart. Stocks outperformed bonds in all eight groups. But notice that returns for both assets were consistently higher, as real interest rates at the beginning of the five-year periods were themselves higher.</p>\n<p>Notice also from the chart where the U.S. currently stands on this spectrum of real interest rates. While the U.S. is not in the lowest category that is associated with negative real equity returns over the subsequent five years, its stock market is disturbingly close.</p>\n<p><b>Where to turn?</b></p>\n<p>It’s important that we consider stocks from both relative and absolute perspectives. But many of us focus on equity valuations in relative terms only, which is dangerous.</p>\n<p>If you needed a reminder why, recall the housing debacle in 2008. Each house was valued for mortgage purposes relative to other houses in its neighborhood. But those relative valuations proved to be of little solace when the whole market collapsed. It’s not out of the question that a similar scenario could play out in the stock and bond markets.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, it’s not easy figuring out where to turn in an investment environment in which everything is expensive. It’s probably easier to know what not to do.</p>\n<p>One option that seems particularly dangerous is going further and further out on the risk spectrum. Yet it appears that many investors are aggressively betting on highly speculative investments. A few of these securities will likely reward investors, but history shows that, on average, they will underperform the broad stock market on a risk-adjusted basis.</p>\n<p>My hunch is that we need to face squarely that we’re entering an extended era of low returns for all financial assets. Painful as that realization is, we need to adjust our financial and retirement plans accordingly. The sooner we plan for modest returns, the more likely the necessary adjustment will be less painful.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s more evidence that the next decade for stocks won’t be as good as the last</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s more evidence that the next decade for stocks won’t be as good as the last\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-23 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-more-evidence-that-the-next-decade-for-stocks-wont-be-as-good-as-the-last-11616193108?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Expect gains from equities to be thin but still beat inflation and bonds\nThough the U.S. stock market may win its current battle with the bond market, it could lose the war.\nBased on a simple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-more-evidence-that-the-next-decade-for-stocks-wont-be-as-good-as-the-last-11616193108?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-more-evidence-that-the-next-decade-for-stocks-wont-be-as-good-as-the-last-11616193108?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1133296026","content_text":"Expect gains from equities to be thin but still beat inflation and bonds\nThough the U.S. stock market may win its current battle with the bond market, it could lose the war.\nBased on a simple regression model built on the historical relationship between stocks, bonds, interest rates, and inflation, investors can expect stocks to perform about 3.3 percentage points better than bonds annually over the coming decade. But that doesn’t mean equities will produce a return that is anything close to their historical average.\nCurrently, for example, the bond market recently signaled that the 10-year Treasury will produce an inflation-adjusted loss of 0.7 percentage points annualized over the next decade. (That’s the difference between the 10-year yield and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.) Assuming the econometric model is right, that means U.S. stocks will beat inflation by 2.6 annualized percentage points between now and 2031 — only slightly more than a third of its long-term average.\nWhat this in effect means: While the stock market may be overvalued, the bond market is even more so. How you respond is therefore a function of whether you base your asset allocation on relative or absolute returns.\nOne who has made a big splash recently focusing on stocks in relative terms is Robert Shiller, the Yale University finance professor and Nobel laureate. He argues that stocks’ otherwise expensive valuationsare cheap when viewed in relation to today’s rock-bottom interest rates.\nShiller’s arguments raise more than just a few eyebrows, since for years he was assumed to be solidly in the bearish camp. His Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE), otherwise known as the Shiller P/E, has been well above-average for several years now. It currently is higher than 98% of all monthly readings since 1881, exceeded only by the even-loftier levels registered at the top of the internet bubble in the late 1990s.\nBoth perspectives can be correct. Stocks may be cheap relative to bonds, even if they are expensive in their own right.\nThis distinction between relative and absolute is illustrated by the chart below. The data points in the chart were calculated by Elroy Dimson, a professor at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School and chairman of its Centre for Endowment Management. Dimson also is co-author of Credit Suisse’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook, which is based on the complete return histories for the stock and bond markets in 23 different countries dating back to 1900.\n\nDimson took all the countries and years in his database, a total of 2,382 separate observations, and segregated them into eight groups: The first and eighth contained the 5% of country-years with the lowest and highest real rates, respectively. Groups 2 through 7 contained successive 15% of the observations. For each group, he calculated bonds’ and stocks’ average real returns over the subsequent five years.\nSeveral stark patterns are evident from the chart. Stocks outperformed bonds in all eight groups. But notice that returns for both assets were consistently higher, as real interest rates at the beginning of the five-year periods were themselves higher.\nNotice also from the chart where the U.S. currently stands on this spectrum of real interest rates. While the U.S. is not in the lowest category that is associated with negative real equity returns over the subsequent five years, its stock market is disturbingly close.\nWhere to turn?\nIt’s important that we consider stocks from both relative and absolute perspectives. But many of us focus on equity valuations in relative terms only, which is dangerous.\nIf you needed a reminder why, recall the housing debacle in 2008. Each house was valued for mortgage purposes relative to other houses in its neighborhood. But those relative valuations proved to be of little solace when the whole market collapsed. It’s not out of the question that a similar scenario could play out in the stock and bond markets.\nUnfortunately, it’s not easy figuring out where to turn in an investment environment in which everything is expensive. It’s probably easier to know what not to do.\nOne option that seems particularly dangerous is going further and further out on the risk spectrum. Yet it appears that many investors are aggressively betting on highly speculative investments. A few of these securities will likely reward investors, but history shows that, on average, they will underperform the broad stock market on a risk-adjusted basis.\nMy hunch is that we need to face squarely that we’re entering an extended era of low returns for all financial assets. Painful as that realization is, we need to adjust our financial and retirement plans accordingly. The sooner we plan for modest returns, the more likely the necessary adjustment will be less painful.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NDX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320249937,"gmtCreate":1615126066129,"gmtModify":1703484875683,"author":{"id":"3569108136192916","authorId":"3569108136192916","name":"Harvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bf978245bcc77c3312cc406eb2715","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569108136192916","authorIdStr":"3569108136192916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320249937","repostId":"1185942211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185942211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614948149,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185942211?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185942211","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock ","content":"<blockquote>These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.</blockquote><p>The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.</p><p>No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.</p><p>I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d20bb030753e6466748750c5ff92028\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1087\"></p><p>The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.</p><p>The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.</p><p>On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.</p><p>You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.</p><p>No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-05 20:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1185942211","content_text":"These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365785859,"gmtCreate":1614780677871,"gmtModify":1703481025169,"author":{"id":"3569108136192916","authorId":"3569108136192916","name":"Harvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bf978245bcc77c3312cc406eb2715","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569108136192916","authorIdStr":"3569108136192916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Great insight!","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Great insight!","text":"Thanks for sharing. Great insight!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365785859","repostId":"1150809937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366856656,"gmtCreate":1614441485175,"gmtModify":1703477582296,"author":{"id":"3569108136192916","authorId":"3569108136192916","name":"Harvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bf978245bcc77c3312cc406eb2715","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569108136192916","authorIdStr":"3569108136192916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All these shall pass with better days ahead!","listText":"All these shall pass with better days ahead!","text":"All these shall pass with better days ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366856656","repostId":"2114739403","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385626476,"gmtCreate":1613546148195,"gmtModify":1634553216189,"author":{"id":"3569108136192916","authorId":"3569108136192916","name":"Harvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bf978245bcc77c3312cc406eb2715","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569108136192916","authorIdStr":"3569108136192916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone&nbsp;knows why&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06088\">$FIT Hon Teng(06088)$</a>is rallying?","listText":"Anyone&nbsp;knows why&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06088\">$FIT Hon Teng(06088)$</a>is rallying?","text":"Anyone knows why $FIT Hon Teng(06088)$is rallying?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385626476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}