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查理Mango
一直在回本的路上
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
08-11
太酷了
消息称苹果以玻璃为主体的iPhone仍将按计划于2027周年纪念日推出
据彭博援引知情人士透露，苹果公司仍计划在iPhone问世20周年之际推出一款以玻璃为主体的全新设计手机，这反驳了一份声称该计划已被取消的分析师报告。知情人士表示，苹果预计将于明年推出iPhone Pr
消息称苹果以玻璃为主体的iPhone仍将按计划于2027周年纪念日推出
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
07-23
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
此股已废
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
06-19
鸽子
华尔街点评“沃什首秀：立场或许“转鹰”，今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”
尽管Warsh首次FOMC会议释放出超预期鹰派信号，但高盛、大摩、汇丰、瑞银和德银均未将加息纳入基准情形。机构普遍认为，美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大，未来政策不确定性上升，但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前，按兵不动仍是最可能路径。
华尔街点评“沃什首秀：立场或许“转鹰”，今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
06-01
$2倍做多AVAV ETF-Defiance(AVXX)$
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
05-21
$Wolfspeed Inc.(WOLF)$
昨天补了缺口了
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
04-22
$叮咚买菜(DDL)$
每天就是2-3分钱来去
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
04-17
二季度交付绝对爆表
从交付疲软到AI愿景：德银如何重新定价特斯拉？
智通财经APP获悉，特斯拉下周将公布财报，德意志银行针对该季度表现、Robotaxi业务以及 Terafab 项目，提供了最新的分析观点。德银将特斯拉目标价小幅从480美元下调至465美元，此调整反映了对估值模型及框架所做的细微修正;维持“买入”评级。德银指出，特斯拉一季度交付表现如预期偏软。该行指出，特斯拉2026年第一季度的销量表现，主要反映了此前预期的各类不利因素，但其整体进度仍有望达成德银对全年的销量预测。
从交付疲软到AI愿景：德银如何重新定价特斯拉？
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
04-10
$三生制药(01530)$
一路下跌啊 搞什么 业绩好 也要割韭菜
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
04-01
$三生制药(01530)$
加油
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查理Mango
查理Mango
·
03-09
这种人人都亏损的环境 叮咚还盈利 已经很牛了
@虾米焗芝士：
$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ 按照这一段时间的表现来看，基本上也就到这里了吧。如果大环境给力的话，现阶段要不就是整理，要么就应该在掉头往上走了。
$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ 按照这一段时间的表现来看，基本上也就到这里了吧。如果大环境给力的话，现阶段要不就是整理，要么就应该在掉头往上走了。
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息称苹果以玻璃为主体的iPhone仍将按计划于2027周年纪念日推出\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-11 09:37 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据彭博援引知情人士透露，苹果公司仍计划在iPhone问世20周年之际推出一款以玻璃为主体的全新设计手机，这反驳了一份声称该计划已被取消的分析师报告。知情人士表示，苹果预计将于明年推出iPhone Pro机型，采用全新的玻璃质感外观。在这些内部代号为V73和V74的手机上，正面和背面均采用玻璃材料，且该材料将向机身两侧弯曲，中间配有金属中框。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bf4565bc4c9ea6e0ff587a10365663","relate_stocks":{"LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) 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20:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评“沃什首秀：立场或许“转鹰”，今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644088604","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管Warsh首次FOMC会议释放出超预期鹰派信号，但高盛、大摩、汇丰、瑞银和德银均未将加息纳入基准情形。机构普遍认为，美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大，未来政策不确定性上升，但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前，按兵不动仍是最可能路径。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储新主席Kevin Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措，迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。</p>\n<p><strong>会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要（SEP）：18位提交预测的委员中，有9人预计今年将至少加息一次，与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。</strong></p>\n<p>市场对此反应明显偏鹰：2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点，美元走强，美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，据追风交易台，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>、瑞银及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。</strong></p>\n<p>机构普遍认为，美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大，<strong>未来政策不确定性上升，但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前，按兵不动仍是最可能路径。</strong>与此同时，各大行一致上调加息风险评估，认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革，正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。</p>\n<h2>各机构维持按兵不动基准预测，但上调加息风险</h2>\n<p>尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号，华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。</p>\n<p>高盛报告认为，今年加息的风险上升，但基准情形仍是利率不变。</p>\n<p>该行指出，若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲，多数委员可能支持加息；但该行判断，12位有投票权的委员中，多数仍倾向于维持利率不变，且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认，将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源，届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测，并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息，但强调这是"非常接近的判断"——若油价传导至核心通胀，或劳动力市场进一步收紧，美联储将不会降息。</p>\n<p>汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年，同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方，并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>报告指出，一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活，为未来几次会议的加息创造条件；但与此同时，今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降，可能导致金融条件显著收紧，反而限制近期加息的空间。</p>\n<h2>点阵图五五开，鹰派程度超预期</h2>\n<p>6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而，会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。</p>\n<p>此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息，远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵，18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次，其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上，1人预计加息75个基点；8人预计利率不变，1人仍预计降息。</p>\n<p>通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%，核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出，几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时，2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%，失业率预测则微降至4.3%。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出，该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%，明显低于美联储中位数，这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>Warsh新闻发布会：鹰派基调，拒绝前瞻指引</h2>\n<p>Warsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰，但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。</p>\n<p>在通胀问题上，Warsh多次强调美联储"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标"，并重申"通胀是一种选择"。据德意志银行报告，他在发布会上提及"价格稳定"达12次之多，政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为："委员会将实现价格稳定。"</p>\n<p>在劳动力市场方面，Warsh未提及任何下行风险，称就业数据"正朝着好的方向发展"，并表示"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的，而是我们所欢迎的"。</p>\n<p>据瑞银报告，他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域（如住房）具有一定限制性，但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述，并将这一"不均衡"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。</p>\n<p>在前瞻指引方面，Warsh明确表示已"放弃前瞻指引"，并认为"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳，而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应"。</p>\n<p>他同时透露，自己未提交点阵预测，并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告，他在发布会上使用"工作组"一词多达29次。</p>\n<h2>五大工作组启动，政策框架面临系统性重审</h2>\n<p>Warsh宣布成立五个工作组，涵盖：1）美联储沟通机制；2）资产负债表；3）现有数据来源的使用与依赖；4）转型时代的生产率与就业；5）通胀框架。</p>\n<p>Warsh表示工作组将在"未来几周内"启动，预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论，成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。</p>\n<p>在沟通机制方面，Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度，并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——"新闻发布会是有用的，但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说"。摩根士丹利报告指出，若主席本人不认可SEP流程，该框架的可持续性存疑，但在工作组得出结论之前，其他委员仍将继续提交预测。</p>\n<p>在资产负债表方面，汇丰报告指出，政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为"在适当时候"进行，暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度，并为未来重启缩表留有空间。</p>\n<p>在通胀框架方面，Warsh明确表示，在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前，不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评“沃什首秀：立场或许“转鹰”，今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-18 20:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储新主席Kevin Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措，迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。</p>\n<p><strong>会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要（SEP）：18位提交预测的委员中，有9人预计今年将至少加息一次，与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。</strong></p>\n<p>市场对此反应明显偏鹰：2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点，美元走强，美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，据追风交易台，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>、瑞银及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。</strong></p>\n<p>机构普遍认为，美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大，<strong>未来政策不确定性上升，但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前，按兵不动仍是最可能路径。</strong>与此同时，各大行一致上调加息风险评估，认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革，正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。</p>\n<h2>各机构维持按兵不动基准预测，但上调加息风险</h2>\n<p>尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号，华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。</p>\n<p>高盛报告认为，今年加息的风险上升，但基准情形仍是利率不变。</p>\n<p>该行指出，若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲，多数委员可能支持加息；但该行判断，12位有投票权的委员中，多数仍倾向于维持利率不变，且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认，将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源，届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测，并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息，但强调这是"非常接近的判断"——若油价传导至核心通胀，或劳动力市场进一步收紧，美联储将不会降息。</p>\n<p>汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年，同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方，并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>报告指出，一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活，为未来几次会议的加息创造条件；但与此同时，今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降，可能导致金融条件显著收紧，反而限制近期加息的空间。</p>\n<h2>点阵图五五开，鹰派程度超预期</h2>\n<p>6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而，会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。</p>\n<p>此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息，远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵，18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次，其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上，1人预计加息75个基点；8人预计利率不变，1人仍预计降息。</p>\n<p>通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%，核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出，几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时，2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%，失业率预测则微降至4.3%。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出，该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%，明显低于美联储中位数，这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>Warsh新闻发布会：鹰派基调，拒绝前瞻指引</h2>\n<p>Warsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰，但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。</p>\n<p>在通胀问题上，Warsh多次强调美联储"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标"，并重申"通胀是一种选择"。据德意志银行报告，他在发布会上提及"价格稳定"达12次之多，政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为："委员会将实现价格稳定。"</p>\n<p>在劳动力市场方面，Warsh未提及任何下行风险，称就业数据"正朝着好的方向发展"，并表示"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的，而是我们所欢迎的"。</p>\n<p>据瑞银报告，他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域（如住房）具有一定限制性，但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述，并将这一"不均衡"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。</p>\n<p>在前瞻指引方面，Warsh明确表示已"放弃前瞻指引"，并认为"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳，而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应"。</p>\n<p>他同时透露，自己未提交点阵预测，并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告，他在发布会上使用"工作组"一词多达29次。</p>\n<h2>五大工作组启动，政策框架面临系统性重审</h2>\n<p>Warsh宣布成立五个工作组，涵盖：1）美联储沟通机制；2）资产负债表；3）现有数据来源的使用与依赖；4）转型时代的生产率与就业；5）通胀框架。</p>\n<p>Warsh表示工作组将在"未来几周内"启动，预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论，成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。</p>\n<p>在沟通机制方面，Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度，并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——"新闻发布会是有用的，但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说"。摩根士丹利报告指出，若主席本人不认可SEP流程，该框架的可持续性存疑，但在工作组得出结论之前，其他委员仍将继续提交预测。</p>\n<p>在资产负债表方面，汇丰报告指出，政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为"在适当时候"进行，暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度，并为未来重启缩表留有空间。</p>\n<p>在通胀框架方面，Warsh明确表示，在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前，不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4a0b1fc6027770175963cad649f64b","relate_stocks":{"LU0158827781.USD":" 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Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措，迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。\n会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要（SEP）：18位提交预测的委员中，有9人预计今年将至少加息一次，与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。\n市场对此反应明显偏鹰：2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点，美元走强，美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。\n尽管如此，据追风交易台，高盛、摩根士丹利、汇丰、瑞银及德意志银行等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。\n机构普遍认为，美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大，未来政策不确定性上升，但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前，按兵不动仍是最可能路径。与此同时，各大行一致上调加息风险评估，认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革，正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。\n各机构维持按兵不动基准预测，但上调加息风险\n尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号，华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。\n高盛报告认为，今年加息的风险上升，但基准情形仍是利率不变。\n该行指出，若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲，多数委员可能支持加息；但该行判断，12位有投票权的委员中，多数仍倾向于维持利率不变，且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认，将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源，届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。\n摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测，并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息，但强调这是\"非常接近的判断\"——若油价传导至核心通胀，或劳动力市场进一步收紧，美联储将不会降息。\n汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年，同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方，并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。\n德意志银行报告指出，一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活，为未来几次会议的加息创造条件；但与此同时，今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降，可能导致金融条件显著收紧，反而限制近期加息的空间。\n点阵图五五开，鹰派程度超预期\n6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而，会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。\n此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息，远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵，18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次，其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上，1人预计加息75个基点；8人预计利率不变，1人仍预计降息。\n通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%，核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出，几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时，2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%，失业率预测则微降至4.3%。\n摩根士丹利报告指出，该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%，明显低于美联储中位数，这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。\nWarsh新闻发布会：鹰派基调，拒绝前瞻指引\nWarsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰，但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。\n在通胀问题上，Warsh多次强调美联储\"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标\"，并重申\"通胀是一种选择\"。据德意志银行报告，他在发布会上提及\"价格稳定\"达12次之多，政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为：\"委员会将实现价格稳定。\"\n在劳动力市场方面，Warsh未提及任何下行风险，称就业数据\"正朝着好的方向发展\"，并表示\"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的，而是我们所欢迎的\"。\n据瑞银报告，他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域（如住房）具有一定限制性，但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述，并将这一\"不均衡\"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。\n在前瞻指引方面，Warsh明确表示已\"放弃前瞻指引\"，并认为\"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳，而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应\"。\n他同时透露，自己未提交点阵预测，并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告，他在发布会上使用\"工作组\"一词多达29次。\n五大工作组启动，政策框架面临系统性重审\nWarsh宣布成立五个工作组，涵盖：1）美联储沟通机制；2）资产负债表；3）现有数据来源的使用与依赖；4）转型时代的生产率与就业；5）通胀框架。\nWarsh表示工作组将在\"未来几周内\"启动，预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论，成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。\n在沟通机制方面，Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度，并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——\"新闻发布会是有用的，但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说\"。摩根士丹利报告指出，若主席本人不认可SEP流程，该框架的可持续性存疑，但在工作组得出结论之前，其他委员仍将继续提交预测。\n在资产负债表方面，汇丰报告指出，政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为\"在适当时候\"进行，暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度，并为未来重启缩表留有空间。\n在通胀框架方面，Warsh明确表示，在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前，不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHV":0.6,".DJI":2,"BBLB":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,".IXIC":2,"VIXY":2,".SPX":2,"BBSB":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"TBJL":0.6,"TLTX":0.6,"QQQ":2,"BWX":0.6,"ESmain":2,"NQmain":2,"IEF":0.6,"IGOV":0.6,"TLTW":0.6,"TSYW":0.6,"VIX":2,"SVIX":0.6,"TLT":1.61,"UVIX":0.6,"BBIB":0.6,"FLGV":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"SQQQ":2,"TQQQ":2,"BWZ":0.6,"TLTI":0.6,"ISHG":0.6,"TFJL":0.6,"YMmain":2,"VIXmain":2,"SGOV":0.6,"VXX":2,"IEI":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"TLH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570526466413328,"gmtCreate":1780292908179,"gmtModify":1780294169882,"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569472643212871","idStr":"3569472643212871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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每天就是2-3分钱来去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556402820563376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554619639264840,"gmtCreate":1776439762465,"gmtModify":1776439764958,"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569472643212871","idStr":"3569472643212871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"二季度交付绝对爆表","listText":"二季度交付绝对爆表","text":"二季度交付绝对爆表","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554619639264840","repostId":"2628270981","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2628270981","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776424515,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2628270981?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-17 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从交付疲软到AI愿景：德银如何重新定价特斯拉？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628270981","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，特斯拉下周将公布财报，德意志银行针对该季度表现、Robotaxi业务以及 Terafab 项目，提供了最新的分析观点。德银将特斯拉目标价小幅从480美元下调至465美元，此调整反映了对估值模型及框架所做的细微修正;维持“买入”评级。德银指出，特斯拉一季度交付表现如预期偏软。该行指出，特斯拉2026年第一季度的销量表现，主要反映了此前预期的各类不利因素，但其整体进度仍有望达成德银对全年的销量预测。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>下周将公布财报，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>针对该季度表现、Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)业务以及 Terafab 项目，提供了最新的分析观点。对于即将发布的财报，德银预计核心讨论议题将包括：Robotaxi 的部署进展、人形机器人(Optimus V3)的研发进度、Cybercab 的生产计划，以及Terafab项目与资本支出的相关情况。德银将特斯拉目标价小幅从480美元下调至465美元，此调整反映了对估值模型及框架所做的细微修正;维持“买入”评级。</p><p>德银指出，特斯拉一季度交付表现如预期偏软。该行指出，特斯拉2026年第一季度的销量表现，主要反映了此前预期的各类不利因素，但其整体进度仍有望达成德银对全年的销量预测。Q1交付量为 358,023 辆，略低于市场一致预期(365,600 辆)。Model S 和 Model X 车型的有意减产，加之全球范围内电动汽车需求整体疲软，对当季的交付量造成了冲击;尽管如此，欧洲市场的消费者信心似乎已触底回升。</p><p>其次，德银表示，虽然储能业务板块预计将继续保持增长势头，但第一季度的储能产品部署量仅为 8.8 GWh，远低于市场预期的 14.4 GWh。这一缺口很可能归因于订单交付在时间上的波动性(即“履约的非连续性”)，预计后续季度该数据将呈现环比改善。总体而言，德银测算第一季度的营收约为 207 亿美元，该数据虽较上一季度有所下滑，但实现了同比正增长。该行预计汽车业务的毛利率(剔除碳排放积分收益后)约为 14.7%，较 2025 年第四季度的 17.9% 有所回落;导致这一降幅的主要因素包括：销量下滑，以及公司取消了 FSD(全自动驾驶系统)“一次性全额预付”的购买选项(该政策自 2 月 15 日起生效)。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从交付疲软到AI愿景：德银如何重新定价特斯拉？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从交付疲软到AI愿景：德银如何重新定价特斯拉？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-17 19:15 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1429965.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月17日，特斯拉下周将公布财报，德意志银行针对该季度表现、Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)业务以及 Terafab 项目，提供了最新的分析观点。对于即将发布的财报，德银预计核心讨论议题将包括：Robotaxi 的部署进展、人形机器人(Optimus V3)的研发进度、Cybercab 的生产计划，以及Terafab项目与资本支出的相关情况。德银将特斯拉目标价小幅从480美元下调至465美元，此...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1429965.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU0133085943.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US BLUE CHIP EQUITY \"A\" 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也要割韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551945238898584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566021765057498","authorId":"3566021765057498","name":"木木骑士","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcbf96a332a6a5a4261ab33230f9eb83","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566021765057498","idStr":"3566021765057498"},"content":"放量了，下周开始等机构拉升吧","text":"放量了，下周开始等机构拉升吧","html":"放量了，下周开始等机构拉升吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548874918331936,"gmtCreate":1775026155398,"gmtModify":1775026156860,"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569472643212871","idStr":"3569472643212871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01530\">$三生制药(01530)$</a> 加油","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01530\">$三生制药(01530)$</a> 加油","text":"$三生制药(01530)$ 加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548874918331936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540852489405872,"gmtCreate":1773062237117,"gmtModify":1773062239686,"author":{"id":"3569472643212871","authorId":"3569472643212871","name":"查理Mango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5da54990ef22ebb6c837a00906ad75","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569472643212871","idStr":"3569472643212871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这种人人都亏损的环境 叮咚还盈利 已经很牛了 ","listText":"这种人人都亏损的环境 叮咚还盈利 已经很牛了 ","text":"这种人人都亏损的环境 叮咚还盈利 已经很牛了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540852489405872","repostId":"540838443098160","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":540838443098160,"gmtCreate":1773058842868,"gmtModify":1773058845079,"author":{"id":"3549961257478316","authorId":"3549961257478316","name":"虾米焗芝士","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549961257478316","idStr":"3549961257478316"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ </a> 按照这一段时间的表现来看，基本上也就到这里了吧。如果大环境给力的话，现阶段要不就是整理，要么就应该在掉头往上走了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ </a> 按照这一段时间的表现来看，基本上也就到这里了吧。如果大环境给力的话，现阶段要不就是整理，要么就应该在掉头往上走了。","text":"$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ 按照这一段时间的表现来看，基本上也就到这里了吧。如果大环境给力的话，现阶段要不就是整理，要么就应该在掉头往上走了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/540838443098160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}