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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-11-19
  Baba down to double digit at this rate! [喷血]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-07-23
  Ok
  Biden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In 'Bind' Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze<blockquote>拜登淡化通胀，预测企业将因劳动力短缺而“束缚”，然后出现大脑冻结</blockquote>
  President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling aCNNtown hall in Ci
  Biden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In 'Bind' Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze<blockquote>拜登淡化通胀，预测企业将因劳动力短缺而“束缚”，然后出现大脑冻结</blockquote>
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-07-22
  Please like. Thanks
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,485 评论
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-07-22
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-22
  Oh dear
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-22
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-22
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-22
  So what does it mean for the market?
  Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>
  Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect
  Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-22
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,112 评论
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- AmateurIAmateurI
  ·2021-06-21
  Interesting article!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,511 评论
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down to double digit&nbsp;at this rate!&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"Baba down to double digit&nbsp;at this rate!&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"Baba down to double digit at this rate! [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876392852","repostId":"2184899191","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172797856,"gmtCreate":1626993084575,"gmtModify":1631890913913,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172797856","repostId":"1172546594","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172546594","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626963813,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1172546594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In 'Bind' Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze<blockquote>拜登淡化通胀，预测企业将因劳动力短缺而“束缚”，然后出现大脑冻结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172546594","media":"zerohedge","summary":"President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling aCNNtown hall in Ci","content":"<p>President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling a<i>CNN</i>town hall in Cincinnati that it won't persist as the economy emerges from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统周三摆脱了对长期通胀的担忧，并表示<i>CNN</i>辛辛那提市政厅表示，随着经济走出疫情，这种情况不会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/667604940c5d09d04d8141c6810c2609\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"<b>There will be near-term inflation</b>\" because the economy is recovering, he said, adding that 'most economists' think \"it’s highly unlikely that it’s going to be long-term inflation that’s going to get out of hand.\"</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>近期会有通货膨胀</b>“因为经济正在复苏，”他说，并补充说'大多数经济学家'认为 “长期通胀不太可能失控”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a683ce14e2b21dab4dac41ad2dcd5ac\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"507\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">He then cautioned restaurant owners and others in the hospitality sector that recovery may not be swift - telling one restaurant owner that he may be \"in a bind for a while\" because workers are seeking better wages and working conditions, according to<i>Bloomberg</i>.</p><p><blockquote>随后，他警告餐馆老板和酒店业的其他人，复苏可能不会很快——他告诉一位餐馆老板，他可能会“陷入困境一段时间”，因为工人们正在寻求更好的工资和工作条件<i>彭博社</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"It really is a matter of people deciding now that they have opportunities to do other things</b>,\" he said, adding \"People are looking to make more money and to bargain.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“这实际上是人们现在决定他们有机会做其他事情的问题</b>他说，并补充说，“人们希望赚更多的钱并讨价还价。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Inflation has become a political liability for the White House in recent weeks. The U.S. experienced the largest surge in consumer prices in more than 12 years last month, with a Labor Department gauge rising 5.4% compared to one year ago.</i>    <i>“</i>  <i><b>Inflation is driving the cost of everything through the roof</b></i>  <i>,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said at a news conference Wednesday opposing Democratic calls for Biden’s long-term social spending plan. -Bloomberg</i>  Republicans, meanwhile, largely blame Biden and Democrats for the labor shortages at restaurants and other low-wage businesses<b>because overly-generous pandemic stimulus has removed incentives to get back to work</b>. Biden, in response, suggests these low-margin businesses should simply pay people more - calling rising wages a \"feature' of his economic plans.</p><p><blockquote><i>最近几周，通货膨胀已成为白宫的政治负担。美国上个月经历了12年多来最大的消费者价格飙升，劳工部的一项指标与一年前相比上涨了5.4%。</i><i>“</i><i><b>通货膨胀正在推高所有东西的成本</b></i><i>肯塔基州参议院少数党领袖米奇-麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）在周三的新闻发布会上反对民主党评级拜登的长期社会支出计划。-彭博社</i>与此同时，共和党人主要将餐馆和其他低工资企业的劳动力短缺归咎于拜登和民主党人<b>因为过于慷慨的大流行刺激措施消除了重返工作岗位的动力</b>作为回应，拜登建议这些低利润企业应该给员工更多的工资——称工资上涨是他经济计划的一个“特征”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd04b1d760874109565cfabae2d919e\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"559\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>J</b><b>ob openings continue to hit record highs</b>despite elevated unemployment. According to the report, the hotel and restaurant industries had 1.25 million vacant jobs in May, up from 807,000 in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>J</b><b>ob开业继续创下历史新高</b>尽管失业率上升。根据该报告，5月份酒店和餐饮业有125万个职位空缺，高于2020年2月的80.7万个。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of people who work as waiters and waitresses decided that they don’t want to do that anymore because there’s other opportunities and higher wages, because there’s a lot of openings now and jobs and people are beginning to move,\" said Biden.</p><p><blockquote>“拜登说：”很多从事服务员工作的人决定不想再做了，因为有其他机会和更高的工资，因为现在有很多职位空缺，工作和人员开始流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Infrastructure, Vaccinations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基础设施、疫苗接种</b></blockquote></p><p> Biden also expressed confidence that he can still secure the passage of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package despite GOP lawmakers blocking its first congressional vote on Wednesday - which Biden called \"irrelevant.\"</p><p><blockquote>拜登还表示相信，尽管共和党议员周三阻止了国会的首次投票，但他仍然能够确保 1 万亿美元的两党基础设施一揽子计划的通过——拜登称该计划“无关紧要”。</blockquote></p><p> \"It’s necessary, I really mean it. It’s going to not only increase job opportunities but increase commerce. It’s a good thing and I think we’re going to get it done,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是必要的，我是认真的。这不仅会增加就业机会，还会促进商业发展。这是一件好事，我认为我们会做到这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> As the<i>Financial Times</i>notes, \"Although US growth and job creation have jumped since Biden took office in January,<b>the economic outlook has been clouded by the resurgence of coronavirus because of the rapid spread of the contagious Delta variant as well as an unnerving rise in inflation</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>金融时报</i>他指出，“尽管自拜登一月份上任以来，美国经济增长和就业创造大幅增长，<b>由于传染性德尔塔变异毒株的迅速传播以及令人不安的通货膨胀上升，冠状病毒的卷土重来给经济前景蒙上了阴影</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p> Biden also pushed vaccinations, which have slowed in the United States as cases nudge higher. He said they would receive final approval from the Food and Drug Administration soon, and would be available for children under the age of 12.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还推动了疫苗接种，但随着病例增加，美国的疫苗接种速度已经放缓。他说，它们将很快获得美国食品药品监督管理局的最终批准，并将适用于12岁以下的儿童。</blockquote></p><p> \"We have a pandemic for those who haven’t gotten the vaccination. It’s that basic, that simple,\" he said. \"<u><i><b>If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized</b></i></u>.<i><b>You’re not going to be in an ICU unit. And you are not going to die.</b></i>\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于那些没有接种疫苗的人来说，我们有一个大流行病。这是最基本的，最简单的，”他说。<u><i><b>如果您接种了疫苗，您就不会住院</b></i></u>.<i><b>你不会在重症监护室。你不会死的。</b></i>\"</blockquote></p><p> <b>Except40% of UK hospital admissionsare those who have been vaccinated, while Israel has had even higher numbers</b>, and the most vaccinated countries are experiencing<b>COVID case spikes</b>vs. the least-vaccinated. Meanwhile, over 6,000 people have<i>officially</i>died shortly after receiving the vaccine, according to the&nbsp;CDC.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了英国40%的住院病人是接种过疫苗的人，而以色列的人数甚至更高</b>接种疫苗最多的国家正在经历<b>新冠病例激增</b>与接种疫苗最少的人。与此同时，超过6000人<i>正式</i>据疾病预防控制中心称，接种疫苗后不久死亡。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174a8c547f5a0be8e7a4018d1d646579\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e0835984a9d20a1a321432753ad11f\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d35eded3a3bfac23a186cb7feee6a80\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Biden had an<b>awkward brain freeze</b>during the vaccine Q&amp;A.</p><p><blockquote>拜登已经<b>尴尬的大脑冻结</b>在疫苗问答期间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106e46a3028532086fc49841235f2fd1\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83ce29d43f252b5b72c5106e5d5f3652\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Filibuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阻挠议事</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Biden slammed Republican legislators over voting integrity legislation, calling them \"Jim Crow on steroids,\" however<b>he maintained his support for the legislative filibuster</b>.</p><p><blockquote>然而，拜登抨击共和党立法者投票支持诚信立法，称他们为“服用类固醇的吉姆·克劳”<b>他坚持支持立法阻挠议事</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"There’s no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done,\" adding \"Nothing at all will get done.\" He followed up by saying that there was 'too much at stake' to risk that level of 'chaos' that a filibuster fight would ignite.</p><p><blockquote>“没有理由保护它，除非你会让整个国会陷入混乱，什么也做不了，”他补充说，“什么也做不了”。他接着表示，“利害关系太大”，不能冒着阻挠议事斗争可能引发的“混乱”的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d8c272e874c5a6f1934e8124015d02\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In 'Bind' Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze<blockquote>拜登淡化通胀，预测企业将因劳动力短缺而“束缚”，然后出现大脑冻结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden Downplays Inflation, Predicts Businesses Will Be In 'Bind' Over Labor Shortages, Then Has Brain Freeze<blockquote>拜登淡化通胀，预测企业将因劳动力短缺而“束缚”，然后出现大脑冻结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling a<i>CNN</i>town hall in Cincinnati that it won't persist as the economy emerges from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统周三摆脱了对长期通胀的担忧，并表示<i>CNN</i>辛辛那提市政厅表示，随着经济走出疫情，这种情况不会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/667604940c5d09d04d8141c6810c2609\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"<b>There will be near-term inflation</b>\" because the economy is recovering, he said, adding that 'most economists' think \"it’s highly unlikely that it’s going to be long-term inflation that’s going to get out of hand.\"</p><p><blockquote>\"<b>近期会有通货膨胀</b>“因为经济正在复苏，”他说，并补充说'大多数经济学家'认为 “长期通胀不太可能失控”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a683ce14e2b21dab4dac41ad2dcd5ac\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"507\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">He then cautioned restaurant owners and others in the hospitality sector that recovery may not be swift - telling one restaurant owner that he may be \"in a bind for a while\" because workers are seeking better wages and working conditions, according to<i>Bloomberg</i>.</p><p><blockquote>随后，他警告餐馆老板和酒店业的其他人，复苏可能不会很快——他告诉一位餐馆老板，他可能会“陷入困境一段时间”，因为工人们正在寻求更好的工资和工作条件<i>彭博社</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"It really is a matter of people deciding now that they have opportunities to do other things</b>,\" he said, adding \"People are looking to make more money and to bargain.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“这实际上是人们现在决定他们有机会做其他事情的问题</b>他说，并补充说，“人们希望赚更多的钱并讨价还价。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>Inflation has become a political liability for the White House in recent weeks. The U.S. experienced the largest surge in consumer prices in more than 12 years last month, with a Labor Department gauge rising 5.4% compared to one year ago.</i>    <i>“</i>  <i><b>Inflation is driving the cost of everything through the roof</b></i>  <i>,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said at a news conference Wednesday opposing Democratic calls for Biden’s long-term social spending plan. -Bloomberg</i>  Republicans, meanwhile, largely blame Biden and Democrats for the labor shortages at restaurants and other low-wage businesses<b>because overly-generous pandemic stimulus has removed incentives to get back to work</b>. Biden, in response, suggests these low-margin businesses should simply pay people more - calling rising wages a \"feature' of his economic plans.</p><p><blockquote><i>最近几周，通货膨胀已成为白宫的政治负担。美国上个月经历了12年多来最大的消费者价格飙升，劳工部的一项指标与一年前相比上涨了5.4%。</i><i>“</i><i><b>通货膨胀正在推高所有东西的成本</b></i><i>肯塔基州参议院少数党领袖米奇-麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）在周三的新闻发布会上反对民主党评级拜登的长期社会支出计划。-彭博社</i>与此同时，共和党人主要将餐馆和其他低工资企业的劳动力短缺归咎于拜登和民主党人<b>因为过于慷慨的大流行刺激措施消除了重返工作岗位的动力</b>作为回应，拜登建议这些低利润企业应该给员工更多的工资——称工资上涨是他经济计划的一个“特征”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd04b1d760874109565cfabae2d919e\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"559\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>J</b><b>ob openings continue to hit record highs</b>despite elevated unemployment. According to the report, the hotel and restaurant industries had 1.25 million vacant jobs in May, up from 807,000 in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>J</b><b>ob开业继续创下历史新高</b>尽管失业率上升。根据该报告，5月份酒店和餐饮业有125万个职位空缺，高于2020年2月的80.7万个。</blockquote></p><p> \"A lot of people who work as waiters and waitresses decided that they don’t want to do that anymore because there’s other opportunities and higher wages, because there’s a lot of openings now and jobs and people are beginning to move,\" said Biden.</p><p><blockquote>“拜登说：”很多从事服务员工作的人决定不想再做了，因为有其他机会和更高的工资，因为现在有很多职位空缺，工作和人员开始流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Infrastructure, Vaccinations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基础设施、疫苗接种</b></blockquote></p><p> Biden also expressed confidence that he can still secure the passage of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package despite GOP lawmakers blocking its first congressional vote on Wednesday - which Biden called \"irrelevant.\"</p><p><blockquote>拜登还表示相信，尽管共和党议员周三阻止了国会的首次投票，但他仍然能够确保 1 万亿美元的两党基础设施一揽子计划的通过——拜登称该计划“无关紧要”。</blockquote></p><p> \"It’s necessary, I really mean it. It’s going to not only increase job opportunities but increase commerce. It’s a good thing and I think we’re going to get it done,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是必要的，我是认真的。这不仅会增加就业机会，还会促进商业发展。这是一件好事，我认为我们会做到这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> As the<i>Financial Times</i>notes, \"Although US growth and job creation have jumped since Biden took office in January,<b>the economic outlook has been clouded by the resurgence of coronavirus because of the rapid spread of the contagious Delta variant as well as an unnerving rise in inflation</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>金融时报</i>他指出，“尽管自拜登一月份上任以来，美国经济增长和就业创造大幅增长，<b>由于传染性德尔塔变异毒株的迅速传播以及令人不安的通货膨胀上升，冠状病毒的卷土重来给经济前景蒙上了阴影</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p> Biden also pushed vaccinations, which have slowed in the United States as cases nudge higher. He said they would receive final approval from the Food and Drug Administration soon, and would be available for children under the age of 12.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还推动了疫苗接种，但随着病例增加，美国的疫苗接种速度已经放缓。他说，它们将很快获得美国食品药品监督管理局的最终批准，并将适用于12岁以下的儿童。</blockquote></p><p> \"We have a pandemic for those who haven’t gotten the vaccination. It’s that basic, that simple,\" he said. \"<u><i><b>If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized</b></i></u>.<i><b>You’re not going to be in an ICU unit. And you are not going to die.</b></i>\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于那些没有接种疫苗的人来说，我们有一个大流行病。这是最基本的，最简单的，”他说。<u><i><b>如果您接种了疫苗，您就不会住院</b></i></u>.<i><b>你不会在重症监护室。你不会死的。</b></i>\"</blockquote></p><p> <b>Except40% of UK hospital admissionsare those who have been vaccinated, while Israel has had even higher numbers</b>, and the most vaccinated countries are experiencing<b>COVID case spikes</b>vs. the least-vaccinated. Meanwhile, over 6,000 people have<i>officially</i>died shortly after receiving the vaccine, according to the&nbsp;CDC.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了英国40%的住院病人是接种过疫苗的人，而以色列的人数甚至更高</b>接种疫苗最多的国家正在经历<b>新冠病例激增</b>与接种疫苗最少的人。与此同时，超过6000人<i>正式</i>据疾病预防控制中心称，接种疫苗后不久死亡。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174a8c547f5a0be8e7a4018d1d646579\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e0835984a9d20a1a321432753ad11f\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d35eded3a3bfac23a186cb7feee6a80\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Biden had an<b>awkward brain freeze</b>during the vaccine Q&amp;A.</p><p><blockquote>拜登已经<b>尴尬的大脑冻结</b>在疫苗问答期间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106e46a3028532086fc49841235f2fd1\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83ce29d43f252b5b72c5106e5d5f3652\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Filibuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阻挠议事</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Biden slammed Republican legislators over voting integrity legislation, calling them \"Jim Crow on steroids,\" however<b>he maintained his support for the legislative filibuster</b>.</p><p><blockquote>然而，拜登抨击共和党立法者投票支持诚信立法，称他们为“服用类固醇的吉姆·克劳”<b>他坚持支持立法阻挠议事</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"There’s no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done,\" adding \"Nothing at all will get done.\" He followed up by saying that there was 'too much at stake' to risk that level of 'chaos' that a filibuster fight would ignite.</p><p><blockquote>“没有理由保护它，除非你会让整个国会陷入混乱，什么也做不了，”他补充说，“什么也做不了”。他接着表示，“利害关系太大”，不能冒着阻挠议事斗争可能引发的“混乱”的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d8c272e874c5a6f1934e8124015d02\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-downplays-inflation-predicts-businesses-will-be-bind-over-persistent-labor\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-downplays-inflation-predicts-businesses-will-be-bind-over-persistent-labor","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172546594","content_text":"President Joe Biden waved off long-term inflation concerns on Wednesday, telling aCNNtown hall in Cincinnati that it won't persist as the economy emerges from the pandemic.\n\n\"There will be near-term inflation\" because the economy is recovering, he said, adding that 'most economists' think \"it’s highly unlikely that it’s going to be long-term inflation that’s going to get out of hand.\"\nHe then cautioned restaurant owners and others in the hospitality sector that recovery may not be swift - telling one restaurant owner that he may be \"in a bind for a while\" because workers are seeking better wages and working conditions, according toBloomberg.\n\"It really is a matter of people deciding now that they have opportunities to do other things,\" he said, adding \"People are looking to make more money and to bargain.\"\n\nInflation has become a political liability for the White House in recent weeks. The U.S. experienced the largest surge in consumer prices in more than 12 years last month, with a Labor Department gauge rising 5.4% compared to one year ago.\n\n\n“\nInflation is driving the cost of everything through the roof\n,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said at a news conference Wednesday opposing Democratic calls for Biden’s long-term social spending plan. -Bloomberg\n\nRepublicans, meanwhile, largely blame Biden and Democrats for the labor shortages at restaurants and other low-wage businessesbecause overly-generous pandemic stimulus has removed incentives to get back to work. Biden, in response, suggests these low-margin businesses should simply pay people more - calling rising wages a \"feature' of his economic plans.\n\nJob openings continue to hit record highsdespite elevated unemployment. According to the report, the hotel and restaurant industries had 1.25 million vacant jobs in May, up from 807,000 in February 2020.\n\"A lot of people who work as waiters and waitresses decided that they don’t want to do that anymore because there’s other opportunities and higher wages, because there’s a lot of openings now and jobs and people are beginning to move,\" said Biden.\nInfrastructure, Vaccinations\nBiden also expressed confidence that he can still secure the passage of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package despite GOP lawmakers blocking its first congressional vote on Wednesday - which Biden called \"irrelevant.\"\n\"It’s necessary, I really mean it. It’s going to not only increase job opportunities but increase commerce. It’s a good thing and I think we’re going to get it done,\" he said.\nAs theFinancial Timesnotes, \"Although US growth and job creation have jumped since Biden took office in January,the economic outlook has been clouded by the resurgence of coronavirus because of the rapid spread of the contagious Delta variant as well as an unnerving rise in inflation.\"\nBiden also pushed vaccinations, which have slowed in the United States as cases nudge higher. He said they would receive final approval from the Food and Drug Administration soon, and would be available for children under the age of 12.\n\"We have a pandemic for those who haven’t gotten the vaccination. It’s that basic, that simple,\" he said. \"If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized.You’re not going to be in an ICU unit. And you are not going to die.\"\nExcept40% of UK hospital admissionsare those who have been vaccinated, while Israel has had even higher numbers, and the most vaccinated countries are experiencingCOVID case spikesvs. the least-vaccinated. Meanwhile, over 6,000 people haveofficiallydied shortly after receiving the vaccine, according to the CDC.\nBiden had anawkward brain freezeduring the vaccine Q&A.\n\nFilibuster\nBiden slammed Republican legislators over voting integrity legislation, calling them \"Jim Crow on steroids,\" howeverhe maintained his support for the legislative filibuster.\n\"There’s no reason to protect it other than you’re going to throw the entire Congress into chaos and nothing will get done,\" adding \"Nothing at all will get done.\" He followed up by saying that there was 'too much at stake' to risk that level of 'chaos' that a filibuster fight would ignite.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172224168,"gmtCreate":1626963386754,"gmtModify":1631890913924,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like. Thanks","listText":"Please like. Thanks","text":"Please like. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172224168","repostId":"1110204064","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172225860,"gmtCreate":1626963355251,"gmtModify":1631890913937,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172225860","repostId":"1107511555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120139593,"gmtCreate":1624313071212,"gmtModify":1631890913950,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh dear","listText":"Oh dear","text":"Oh dear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120139593","repostId":"1155858890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120130217,"gmtCreate":1624312998939,"gmtModify":1631890913965,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120130217","repostId":"1186997776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120130817,"gmtCreate":1624312977839,"gmtModify":1631890913977,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120130817","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120197500,"gmtCreate":1624312925900,"gmtModify":1631890913990,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So what does it mean for the market?","listText":"So what does it mean for the market?","text":"So what does it mean for the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120197500","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释美联储如何引发下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应引发的火焰和硫磺中，我们注意到有两个切实的变化，尽管不太引人注目：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将 IOER 和 RRP 利率均上调 5 个基点（美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测，而花旗、牛津经济、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行预测利率不会变化是错误的），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的 0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如 Curvature Securities 回购大师 Scott Skyrm 上周所写，“显然美联储打算将隔夜利率推至零以上，并耗尽 RRP 工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要实现的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对隔夜费率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么呢？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的增加应该会使每日联邦基金利率上升5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。再加上建议零售价上涨 5 个基点，GC 应该会上涨 5 个基点，而且确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如 Skyrm 警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术性调整无助于缓解 RRP 数量：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%，建议零售价利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入了建议零售价。好吧，如果市场回购利率和建议零售价利率都高出 5 个基点，就没有理由从建议零售价中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为 0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或存放在那里的创纪录的五万亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，boy 是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就创纪录地飙升了 50%，作为政府支持企业，激增至惊人的 7,560 亿美元（周五收盘价为 7,470 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，充斥美联储的RRP设施和清空储备几乎不是美联储的意图，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购大师（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的尸检中写道，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价贷款将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储，无处可借贷）转变为负债约束（存款流失，除了货币市场，无处可替代</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，之前 0.00% 的建议零售价率并没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性、超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储正在提供与数万亿美元票据提供的利率相比的慷慨收益率，我们即将看到一夜之间货币市场的巨大变化，数万亿美元的资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价中。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如波萨尔所说，“RRP 设施开始对储备进行消毒……未来还会有更多储备。”正如德意志银行解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误一样，对波萨尔来说，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>该公司犯了一个政策错误--只是这次是在技术利率方面--取消了准备金，因为 “在严格来说没有必要提高 RRP 设施的利率时提高利率是一回事，而将利率提高 ‘过度 ’又是另一回事--正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天我们一年连一个基点都拿不到；从最值得信赖的交易对手那里以五个基点获得无尽的纸张是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为 0 个基点太低，但目前还不是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>波萨尔警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>会扰乱“奇点”的状态</b>“就像寻求热量的导弹一样，货币市场投资者移动数千亿美元，进行急剧的 90 度转弯，寻找零区间哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在 5 个基点的情况下，货币基金有动力交易所有国库券并将现金存放在 RRP 设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下所示，6 个月内票据收益率低于 5 个基点，<b>货币基金有超过2万亿美元的钞票。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人则有买入的动机： 那些存款一直被银行 “容忍 ”的机构，到目前为止赚取零利息，他们有动机收获票据曲线提供的 0-5 个基点范围。将现金放在账单的基点比存款为零要好。<b>因此，准备金的冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个基本上被动的工具转变为一个主动的工具，该工具为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限，该工具“吸走”银行决定保留的存款。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷的策略师建议进行以下 “极端 ”思维实验： 目前银行的大部分 “Covid-19 ”存款都进入了利率较高的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存入银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/n RRP。简单地说，虽然之前美联储为银行提供了一个方便的地方来存放准备金，但现在它将积极抽干准备金，以至于我们可能会陷入另一场 2019 年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己陷入了困境<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使他们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察美联储冲销的后果。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与 2019 年的回购危机相似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以处理资金流出，<b>一些债券重的银行不能。</b>因此，佐尔坦预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从 FHLB 借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场上放贷，因为建议零售价机制将准备金从它们手中抽走，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键的资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降至之前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如佐尔坦总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”--事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份挽回了自己，当时它扩大了建议零售价的使用，但没有使其受到负债约束，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这很有效——上周三，<b>美联储将 “无限 ”数量变成了 “免费资金”，并开始对储备进行冲销。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商 (DoLR) 学习交易艺术，犯下非受迫性错误——如果美联储用定价过高的 o/n RRP 工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期额度增加流动性……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过5个基点支付数万亿美元的准备金，美联储只是埋下了下一次流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120194620,"gmtCreate":1624312869260,"gmtModify":1631890914004,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120194620","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164254313,"gmtCreate":1624213108632,"gmtModify":1631890914015,"author":{"id":"3569706111463394","authorId":"3569706111463394","name":"AmateurI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569706111463394","idStr":"3569706111463394"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting article!","listText":"Interesting article!","text":"Interesting article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164254313","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}