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LUKIE

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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-12-02
  Fantastic move.
  AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading
  AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading after falling nearly 16% yesterday.
  AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-08-24
  Market up with NAS at record high.But Volume is below the average daily trading volume????Is that an ominous sign that the overall market sentiment isnt that great?? ?Anyone with an opinion on this??🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-20
  Congratulations. Another great step for mankind 🍬👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,626 评论
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-19
  Totally not encouraging. Seems a deeper correction is very possible. 🥵🥵🥵
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday
  The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating. Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-19
  Very intriguing. Hotter n shorter???. A big correction around the corner???😯😯🤔🤔
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-06
  That's good news for India.👏👏👏
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-06
  Let's buy them on d dip.😜
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-02
  All the way to the d MOON. BRANSON. GOOD JOB..👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀👅👅💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-01
  Sounds ke Choppy seas ahead. Possibly some F9 storms too. Before the green pastures till Xmas....🥵😜💰💰💰
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LUKIELUKIE
  ·2021-07-01
  Yes. After all Tesla is a fantastic growth stock.💰💰💰
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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nearly&nbsp;16% yesterday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a68ca8fecfe65830c8547d50102369\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC stock surged 7% in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-02 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading&nbsp;after falling nearly&nbsp;16% yesterday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a68ca8fecfe65830c8547d50102369\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157411492","content_text":"AMC stock surged 7% in morning trading after falling nearly 16% yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834314881,"gmtCreate":1629771714943,"gmtModify":1633682543867,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market up with NAS at record high.But Volume is below the average daily trading volume????Is that an ominous sign that the overall market sentiment isnt that great?? ?Anyone with an opinion on this??🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔","listText":"Market up with NAS at record high.But Volume is below the average daily trading volume????Is that an ominous sign that the overall market sentiment isnt that great?? ?Anyone with an opinion on this??🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔","text":"Market up with NAS at record high.But Volume is below the average daily trading volume????Is that an ominous sign that the overall market sentiment isnt that great?? ?Anyone with an opinion on this??🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834314881","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178333901,"gmtCreate":1626787721803,"gmtModify":1633771054744,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Congratulations.&nbsp; Another great step for mankind 🍬👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀","listText":"Congratulations.&nbsp; Another great step for mankind 🍬👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀","text":"Congratulations. Another great step for mankind 🍬👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178333901","repostId":"1142949651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171056917,"gmtCreate":1626698534539,"gmtModify":1631889063832,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Totally&nbsp; not encouraging.&nbsp; Seems a deeper correction is very possible.&nbsp; 🥵🥵🥵","listText":"Totally&nbsp; not encouraging.&nbsp; Seems a deeper correction is very possible.&nbsp; 🥵🥵🥵","text":"Totally not encouraging. Seems a deeper correction is very possible. 🥵🥵🥵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171056917","repostId":"1135910714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135910714","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626692784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135910714?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 19:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135910714","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor","content":"<ul>\n <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>\n <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>\n <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p>\n<p>At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p>\n<p>“What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p>\n<p>Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p>\n<p>Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p>\n<p>One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p>\n<p>Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p>\n<p>Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p>\n<p>Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p>\n<p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p>\n<p>David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p>\n<p>Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p>\n<p><b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p>\n<p><b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p>\n<p>Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-19 19:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>\n <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>\n <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p>\n<p>At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p>\n<p>“What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p>\n<p>Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p>\n<p>Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p>\n<p>One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p>\n<p>Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p>\n<p>Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p>\n<p>Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p>\n<p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p>\n<p>David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p>\n<p>Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p>\n<p><b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p>\n<p><b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p>\n<p>Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135910714","content_text":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\n\n(July 19) U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.\nAt 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused Nasdaq-100 fell 0.89%.\n\nSurging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.\n“What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.\nBusiness reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.\nAirlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in New York.Occidental Petroleumlost 4.1%, ConocoPhillips 3.6%,American Airlines Group2.3% and $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.\nOne bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. Zoom shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.\nWorries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.\nPotential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand Just Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.\nAmong other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. Pershing Square Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein Universal Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s Pershing Square said it would take a large stake in Universal, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.\nItalian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the New York Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in New York.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings: Billionaire investor William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.\nTesla Motors : On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a one-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket trading.\n\nXPeng Inc.: Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket trading.\n\nJohnson & Johnson: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.\n\nIn Asia, technology giants Alibaba and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned American companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.\nJapan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.\nDavid Chao, a market strategist at Invesco, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.\nMr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.\nIn FX, the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\nGold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171020551,"gmtCreate":1626697468473,"gmtModify":1633924868964,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very intriguing.&nbsp; Hotter n shorter???. A big correction around the corner???😯😯🤔🤔","listText":"Very intriguing.&nbsp; Hotter n shorter???. A big correction around the corner???😯😯🤔🤔","text":"Very intriguing. Hotter n shorter???. A big correction around the corner???😯😯🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171020551","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157886834,"gmtCreate":1625577968828,"gmtModify":1633939471788,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That's good news for India.👏👏👏","listText":"That's good news for India.👏👏👏","text":"That's good news for India.👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157886834","repostId":"2148801599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157892263,"gmtCreate":1625576718552,"gmtModify":1633939493513,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's buy them on d dip.😜","listText":"Let's buy them on d dip.😜","text":"Let's buy them on d dip.😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157892263","repostId":"1197405031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156922035,"gmtCreate":1625191524327,"gmtModify":1633942702665,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All the way to the d MOON. BRANSON. GOOD JOB..👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀👅👅💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰","listText":"All the way to the d MOON. BRANSON. GOOD JOB..👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀👅👅💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰","text":"All the way to the d MOON. BRANSON. GOOD JOB..👍🏻👍🏻🚀🚀🚀👅👅💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156922035","repostId":"1146482795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158176338,"gmtCreate":1625140993824,"gmtModify":1633944370116,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds ke Choppy seas ahead. Possibly some F9 storms too. Before the green pastures till Xmas....🥵😜💰💰💰","listText":"Sounds ke Choppy seas ahead. Possibly some F9 storms too. Before the green pastures till Xmas....🥵😜💰💰💰","text":"Sounds ke Choppy seas ahead. Possibly some F9 storms too. Before the green pastures till Xmas....🥵😜💰💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158176338","repostId":"2147819091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158353348,"gmtCreate":1625131329484,"gmtModify":1633944456044,"author":{"id":"3570061630390519","authorId":"3570061630390519","name":"LUKIE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1465384faaf9002099d929922af8e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570061630390519","authorIdStr":"3570061630390519"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes. After all Tesla is a fantastic growth stock.💰💰💰","listText":"Yes. After all Tesla is a fantastic growth stock.💰💰💰","text":"Yes. After all Tesla is a fantastic growth stock.💰💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158353348","repostId":"1152226778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}