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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
07-30
加息更会大跌吗
十年最强鹰派分歧？美联储继续按兵不动、强调通胀承诺，但三票委支持加息
市场聚焦9月会议美联储9月15日至16日会议前，还将公布两份关键通胀数据。市场认为，若未来两个月物价压力重新升温，美联储仍存在年内加息的可能。此外，如果美联储最终恢复加息，也可能再次引发与特朗普政府之间的政策分歧。
十年最强鹰派分歧？美联储继续按兵不动、强调通胀承诺，但三票委支持加息
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
07-17
$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$
美伊战争周末结束吗
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-12-31
$2倍做多CRCL ETF-Leverage Shares(CRCG)$
为什么不跟正股走
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-11-26
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
后悔没听孩子的话，买CRCL还不如买HOOD呢
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-11-26
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
怎么与HOOD差这么多呀
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-11-12
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
财报大超预期，抱抱待涨
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-10-27
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
为什么不涨 ，而HOOD却大涨呢，二者不是同类吗？
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3
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1
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-10-09
$量子之歌(QSG)$
教理财的公司肯定会管理自己的市值的
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-09-25
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$
稳定什么，稳定币应该也能稳定股市，指数大跌时稳定币大涨
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天上给我掉馅饼
天上给我掉馅饼
·
2025-09-25
有点高，不是相当高，30日均线差不多
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02:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"十年最强鹰派分歧？美联储继续按兵不动、强调通胀承诺，但三票委支持加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100657900","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场聚焦9月会议美联储9月15日至16日会议前，还将公布两份关键通胀数据。市场认为，若未来两个月物价压力重新升温，美联储仍存在年内加息的可能。此外，如果美联储最终恢复加息，也可能再次引发与特朗普政府之间的政策分歧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“新美联储通讯社”：这是2016年来首次三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票，分歧凸显联储内部面临越来越大的应对通胀压力。本次声明显示，四分之一的票委支持加息25基点。声明继续重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如大多数市场人士所料，美联储继续按兵不动，但在沃什接掌后的第二次货币政策会议就暴露了内部对于何时加息的分歧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间7月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间继续维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。至此，在截至去年末连续三次会议降息后，FOMC进入2026年以来的五次货币政策会议均按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次美联储决策符合大多数市场人士的意料。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计本周不加息的概率接近70%、有一次25基点加息的概率略微超过30%，9月下次会议继续保持利率不变的概率不到24%，到12月，利率不变的概率不足9%，至少两次25基点加息的概率约有58%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次公布的决议声明几乎沿用了6月的上次会议声明说辞。和上次一样，本次声明继续强调，美联储致力于实现价格稳定。本次声明再次重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次声明照搬了上次声明中对通胀的评价，“相对于（FOMC）委员会2%的目标，通胀率仍处高位，这在一定程度上反映了导致能源等特定领域价格上涨的供应冲击。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比上次，本次声明只有一处大变动：投票结果显示，在12名今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的委员中，有九人赞成保持利率不变，三人反对此决定。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos评论称，这是2016年来首次有三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos撰文指出，此次分歧凸显，在沃什接任主席两个月后，美联储内部正面临越来越大的压力，这种压力要求联储针对已连续五年高于目标水平的通胀采取行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos在决议公布前就指出，如果此次会议有一两位委员投票反对暂停加息，就清晰地表明FOMC内部的鹰派压力正积聚。以往的美联储主席可以通过在声明中加入鹰派或鸽派措辞、或暗示下次会议更可能行动等方式，来安抚潜在的异见者。但沃什明确表示要抛弃这些工具，因此他可能没有足够的手段把分歧压在台面之下。</p><h2 id=\"id_2406285375\">本次声明最大变化：四分之一FOMC票委支持加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据本次会议声明，三名对利率决议投反对票的FOMC委员均为地区联储主席。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们分别是克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）和达拉斯联储主席洛根（Lorie K. Logan）。声明显示，这三人均支持本次会议加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这相当于，四分之一的今年FOMC票委倾向于本次就采取加息行动。上次会后公布的点阵图显示，在18名提供利率预期的美联储决策者中，共九人预计今年至少有一次25个基点的加息，其中六人预计至少有此类加息两次。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0990570145f0072ea9ef55ee63493578\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周FOMC会议的投票结果印证了沃什在担任美联储主席前后作出的联储会有“内战”这一预言。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上次FOMC会议上，包括沃什在内的全体FOMC票委同意维持政策利率不变，这是利率决议九个月来首次获票委全票支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，随着中东局势紧张不断推升油价，新一轮通胀压力浮现，美联储在上次会议转向暗示加息可能性超过降息后面临新的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos本周一撰文指出，本周的FOMC会议是对沃什整套策略的一次集中检验。如果选择维持利率不变，问题就来了：沃什上任两个月来反复强调美联储绝不容忍通胀超标，但如果按兵不动又不给出任何行动触发条件，市场自然会质疑这些强硬表态究竟有没有牙齿。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下截图中的红字为本次美联储删除的上次FOMC会议声明内容，绿字为本次声明的新增内容。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fffb516d78be349faa51925ace5d4c0\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p>风险提示及免责条款</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十年最强鹰派分歧？美联储继续按兵不动、强调通胀承诺，但三票委支持加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-30 02:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“新美联储通讯社”：这是2016年来首次三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票，分歧凸显联储内部面临越来越大的应对通胀压力。本次声明显示，四分之一的票委支持加息25基点。声明继续重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如大多数市场人士所料，美联储继续按兵不动，但在沃什接掌后的第二次货币政策会议就暴露了内部对于何时加息的分歧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间7月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间继续维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。至此，在截至去年末连续三次会议降息后，FOMC进入2026年以来的五次货币政策会议均按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次美联储决策符合大多数市场人士的意料。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计本周不加息的概率接近70%、有一次25基点加息的概率略微超过30%，9月下次会议继续保持利率不变的概率不到24%，到12月，利率不变的概率不足9%，至少两次25基点加息的概率约有58%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次公布的决议声明几乎沿用了6月的上次会议声明说辞。和上次一样，本次声明继续强调，美联储致力于实现价格稳定。本次声明再次重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次声明照搬了上次声明中对通胀的评价，“相对于（FOMC）委员会2%的目标，通胀率仍处高位，这在一定程度上反映了导致能源等特定领域价格上涨的供应冲击。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比上次，本次声明只有一处大变动：投票结果显示，在12名今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的委员中，有九人赞成保持利率不变，三人反对此决定。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos评论称，这是2016年来首次有三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos撰文指出，此次分歧凸显，在沃什接任主席两个月后，美联储内部正面临越来越大的压力，这种压力要求联储针对已连续五年高于目标水平的通胀采取行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos在决议公布前就指出，如果此次会议有一两位委员投票反对暂停加息，就清晰地表明FOMC内部的鹰派压力正积聚。以往的美联储主席可以通过在声明中加入鹰派或鸽派措辞、或暗示下次会议更可能行动等方式，来安抚潜在的异见者。但沃什明确表示要抛弃这些工具，因此他可能没有足够的手段把分歧压在台面之下。</p><h2 id=\"id_2406285375\">本次声明最大变化：四分之一FOMC票委支持加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据本次会议声明，三名对利率决议投反对票的FOMC委员均为地区联储主席。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们分别是克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）和达拉斯联储主席洛根（Lorie K. Logan）。声明显示，这三人均支持本次会议加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这相当于，四分之一的今年FOMC票委倾向于本次就采取加息行动。上次会后公布的点阵图显示，在18名提供利率预期的美联储决策者中，共九人预计今年至少有一次25个基点的加息，其中六人预计至少有此类加息两次。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0990570145f0072ea9ef55ee63493578\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周FOMC会议的投票结果印证了沃什在担任美联储主席前后作出的联储会有“内战”这一预言。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上次FOMC会议上，包括沃什在内的全体FOMC票委同意维持政策利率不变，这是利率决议九个月来首次获票委全票支持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，随着中东局势紧张不断推升油价，新一轮通胀压力浮现，美联储在上次会议转向暗示加息可能性超过降息后面临新的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Timiraos本周一撰文指出，本周的FOMC会议是对沃什整套策略的一次集中检验。如果选择维持利率不变，问题就来了：沃什上任两个月来反复强调美联储绝不容忍通胀超标，但如果按兵不动又不给出任何行动触发条件，市场自然会质疑这些强硬表态究竟有没有牙齿。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下截图中的红字为本次美联储删除的上次FOMC会议声明内容，绿字为本次声明的新增内容。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fffb516d78be349faa51925ace5d4c0\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p>风险提示及免责条款</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778256","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100657900","content_text":"“新美联储通讯社”：这是2016年来首次三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票，分歧凸显联储内部面临越来越大的应对通胀压力。本次声明显示，四分之一的票委支持加息25基点。声明继续重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。如大多数市场人士所料，美联储继续按兵不动，但在沃什接掌后的第二次货币政策会议就暴露了内部对于何时加息的分歧。美东时间7月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间继续维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。至此，在截至去年末连续三次会议降息后，FOMC进入2026年以来的五次货币政策会议均按兵不动。此次美联储决策符合大多数市场人士的意料。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计本周不加息的概率接近70%、有一次25基点加息的概率略微超过30%，9月下次会议继续保持利率不变的概率不到24%，到12月，利率不变的概率不足9%，至少两次25基点加息的概率约有58%。本次公布的决议声明几乎沿用了6月的上次会议声明说辞。和上次一样，本次声明继续强调，美联储致力于实现价格稳定。本次声明再次重申，中东冲突导致经济高度不确定性，通胀仍处高位、部分源于能源价格上涨，经济稳步扩张、失业率基本保持不变。本次声明照搬了上次声明中对通胀的评价，“相对于（FOMC）委员会2%的目标，通胀率仍处高位，这在一定程度上反映了导致能源等特定领域价格上涨的供应冲击。”相比上次，本次声明只有一处大变动：投票结果显示，在12名今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的委员中，有九人赞成保持利率不变，三人反对此决定。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos评论称，这是2016年来首次有三名票委在政策调整方面投出同一立场的反对票。Timiraos撰文指出，此次分歧凸显，在沃什接任主席两个月后，美联储内部正面临越来越大的压力，这种压力要求联储针对已连续五年高于目标水平的通胀采取行动。Timiraos在决议公布前就指出，如果此次会议有一两位委员投票反对暂停加息，就清晰地表明FOMC内部的鹰派压力正积聚。以往的美联储主席可以通过在声明中加入鹰派或鸽派措辞、或暗示下次会议更可能行动等方式，来安抚潜在的异见者。但沃什明确表示要抛弃这些工具，因此他可能没有足够的手段把分歧压在台面之下。本次声明最大变化：四分之一FOMC票委支持加息25基点据本次会议声明，三名对利率决议投反对票的FOMC委员均为地区联储主席。他们分别是克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）和达拉斯联储主席洛根（Lorie K. Logan）。声明显示，这三人均支持本次会议加息25个基点。这相当于，四分之一的今年FOMC票委倾向于本次就采取加息行动。上次会后公布的点阵图显示，在18名提供利率预期的美联储决策者中，共九人预计今年至少有一次25个基点的加息，其中六人预计至少有此类加息两次。本周FOMC会议的投票结果印证了沃什在担任美联储主席前后作出的联储会有“内战”这一预言。上次FOMC会议上，包括沃什在内的全体FOMC票委同意维持政策利率不变，这是利率决议九个月来首次获票委全票支持。不过，随着中东局势紧张不断推升油价，新一轮通胀压力浮现，美联储在上次会议转向暗示加息可能性超过降息后面临新的挑战。Timiraos本周一撰文指出，本周的FOMC会议是对沃什整套策略的一次集中检验。如果选择维持利率不变，问题就来了：沃什上任两个月来反复强调美联储绝不容忍通胀超标，但如果按兵不动又不给出任何行动触发条件，市场自然会质疑这些强硬表态究竟有没有牙齿。以下截图中的红字为本次美联储删除的上次FOMC会议声明内容，绿字为本次声明的新增内容。风险提示及免责条款","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":2,".IXIC":2,"YMmain":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586724962668784,"gmtCreate":1784273499916,"gmtModify":1784273502068,"author":{"id":"3570786432005204","authorId":"3570786432005204","name":"天上给我掉馅饼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570786432005204","authorIdStr":"3570786432005204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ </a> 美伊战争周末结束吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ </a> 美伊战争周末结束吗","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 美伊战争周末结束吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586724962668784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":517014245974016,"gmtCreate":1767193857535,"gmtModify":1767193859412,"author":{"id":"3570786432005204","authorId":"3570786432005204","name":"天上给我掉馅饼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570786432005204","authorIdStr":"3570786432005204"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCG\">$2倍做多CRCL ETF-Leverage Shares(CRCG)$ </a> 为什么不跟正股走","listText":"<a 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