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- flersgflersg
  ·2021-06-29
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  Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段没有太大的上升空间</blockquote>
  Summary We believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited. There’s a risk that A
  Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段没有太大的上升空间</blockquote>
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- flersgflersg
  ·2021-06-29
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Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c924c06e6e942d2f9570a908bd2cbc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>stockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为，持有爱彼迎股票的上行空间相当有限。</li><li>爱彼迎有可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。</li><li>考虑到爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近 17 倍，我们认为在现阶段最好避免这种情况。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？Best Short Ideas的成员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。了解更多 »</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>stockcam/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</p><p><blockquote>尽管是近年来最热门的 IPO 之一，但我们认为拥有爱彼迎 (ABNB) 股票的上涨空间相当有限。该公司不仅很难在短期内恢复到大流行前的水平，而且爱彼迎还有可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。考虑到这一点，以及爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近 17 倍，我们认为在现阶段最好避免这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lots of Challenges Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来面临诸多挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&amp;P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎由学生 B. Chesky、J. Gebbia 和 N. Blecharczyk 于 2008 年创立，现已从沙发冲浪服务发展成为世界上最大的酒店公司之一，拥有 560 万个房源和约 900 亿美元的市值。自 2020 年 12 月上市以来，该公司股价已升值 100% 以上，但近几个月来，爱彼迎的股价自峰值以来下跌了近 40%，目前交易价格约为每股 150 美元。尽管如此，Airbnb 的股票在过去几个季度的表现仍然好于标普500指数，按目前的市值计算，该公司的估值高于万豪国际集团（MAR）、希尔顿全球集团（HLT）和凯悦酒店集团（H）的总和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef3e4eb912dfcf2991dffb45bb17bbf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&amp;D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>虽然对于那些在首次公开募股后立即买入爱彼迎的人来说，该股的表现相对较好，但该公司的财务数据显示，其业务距离恢复到大流行前的水平还有很长的路要走。虽然爱彼迎管理层去年试图通过降低收入成本和优化员工人数来最大限度地减少损失，以抵御大流行病，但其研发费用仍同比大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, in&nbsp;Q1&nbsp;alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>此外，仅在第一季度，爱彼迎就报告亏损 11.7 亿美元，因为其主要市场在这三个月中尚未完全开放，而一些国家甚至收紧了行动限制，导致利润表现不佳。除此之外，爱彼迎还花费了 3.77 亿美元用于债务偿还，2.92 亿美元用于负荷协议认股权证，1.13 亿美元用于经营租赁资产和办公空间改善，2.29 亿美元用于股票薪酬计划。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，爱彼迎第一季度的 EBITDA 为负 5900 万美元，而净营业利润率则降至前所未有的负值。由于业绩如此糟糕，可以肯定的是，爱彼迎的业务至少还需要几年时间才能恢复到 COVID-19 之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎的另一个缺点是，在大流行后的世界中，它似乎没有获得任何市场份额。随着旅行限制的取消，美国人正在寻求再次旅行，并已经在为暑假做准备。不过，根据 Statista 的调查，2021 年最受欢迎的住宿预订方式是通过住宿本身的网站，而不是通过爱彼迎或预订（BKNG）。最重要的是，由于缺乏价格优势，爱彼迎将很难超越其更受欢迎的同行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b1811b12027157d4dcd81ba478a0c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1275\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What’s worse about Airbnb is that according to&nbsp;Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎更糟糕的是，据彭博社报道，该公司正在向其客户支付数百万美元，让他们保持沉默，而这些客户在预订的公寓内成为各种犯罪的受害者。彭博社甚至发现，该公司有一个预算超过5000万美元的秘密部门，其员工总是试图在事件进入公共领域之前、在媒体介入之前解决所有事件，以保持其声誉完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.</p><p><blockquote>因此，数百个故事仍未被报道，因为该公司向被冒犯的客户付款以换取保密协议。通过这样做，爱彼迎试图隐瞒在租来的公寓里不安全的住宿和各种暴力案件的事实。虽然到目前为止，这帮助爱彼迎避免了一场重大的声誉危机，但这表明该公司的商业模式存在一些重大缺陷，因为它建立在陌生人可以相互信任的理念之上。</blockquote></p><p> As the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司的进一步发展，可用房源数量每天都在增加，爱彼迎可能会出现无法让一些被冒犯的客户噤声的情况，从而面临声誉危机，这将对其股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> Considering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it&nbsp;trades&nbsp;at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们认为爱彼迎是一只有风险的股票，特别是因为它的交易价格几乎是其销售额的 17 倍。其股价从几个月前的峰值下跌表明，这一势头正在慢慢消退，我们认为该股短期内没有可能从目前的长期水平走高。此外，由于 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的传播，欧洲可能出现的声誉危机以及进一步封锁的风险也超过了拥有该公司的机会。因此，我们认为最好避免爱彼迎维持在目前的水平，因为该公司面临着诸多挑战，这将使其更难很快恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段没有太大的上升空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb: Not A Lot Of Upside At This Stage<blockquote>爱彼迎：现阶段没有太大的上升空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 17:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited.</li>  <li>There’s a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future.</li>  <li>Considering that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c924c06e6e942d2f9570a908bd2cbc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>stockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为，持有爱彼迎股票的上行空间相当有限。</li><li>爱彼迎有可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。</li><li>考虑到爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近 17 倍，我们认为在现阶段最好避免这种情况。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？Best Short Ideas的成员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。了解更多 »</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>stockcam/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.</p><p><blockquote>尽管是近年来最热门的 IPO 之一，但我们认为拥有爱彼迎 (ABNB) 股票的上涨空间相当有限。该公司不仅很难在短期内恢复到大流行前的水平，而且爱彼迎还有可能面临声誉危机，这将对其未来的股价产生负面影响。考虑到这一点，以及爱彼迎的交易价格已经是其销售额的近 17 倍，我们认为在现阶段最好避免这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lots of Challenges Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来面临诸多挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&amp;P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎由学生 B. Chesky、J. Gebbia 和 N. Blecharczyk 于 2008 年创立，现已从沙发冲浪服务发展成为世界上最大的酒店公司之一，拥有 560 万个房源和约 900 亿美元的市值。自 2020 年 12 月上市以来，该公司股价已升值 100% 以上，但近几个月来，爱彼迎的股价自峰值以来下跌了近 40%，目前交易价格约为每股 150 美元。尽管如此，Airbnb 的股票在过去几个季度的表现仍然好于标普500指数，按目前的市值计算，该公司的估值高于万豪国际集团（MAR）、希尔顿全球集团（HLT）和凯悦酒店集团（H）的总和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef3e4eb912dfcf2991dffb45bb17bbf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&amp;D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>虽然对于那些在首次公开募股后立即买入爱彼迎的人来说，该股的表现相对较好，但该公司的财务数据显示，其业务距离恢复到大流行前的水平还有很长的路要走。虽然爱彼迎管理层去年试图通过降低收入成本和优化员工人数来最大限度地减少损失，以抵御大流行病，但其研发费用仍同比大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, in&nbsp;Q1&nbsp;alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>此外，仅在第一季度，爱彼迎就报告亏损 11.7 亿美元，因为其主要市场在这三个月中尚未完全开放，而一些国家甚至收紧了行动限制，导致利润表现不佳。除此之外，爱彼迎还花费了 3.77 亿美元用于债务偿还，2.92 亿美元用于负荷协议认股权证，1.13 亿美元用于经营租赁资产和办公空间改善，2.29 亿美元用于股票薪酬计划。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，爱彼迎第一季度的 EBITDA 为负 5900 万美元，而净营业利润率则降至前所未有的负值。由于业绩如此糟糕，可以肯定的是，爱彼迎的业务至少还需要几年时间才能恢复到 COVID-19 之前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎的另一个缺点是，在大流行后的世界中，它似乎没有获得任何市场份额。随着旅行限制的取消，美国人正在寻求再次旅行，并已经在为暑假做准备。不过，根据 Statista 的调查，2021 年最受欢迎的住宿预订方式是通过住宿本身的网站，而不是通过爱彼迎或预订（BKNG）。最重要的是，由于缺乏价格优势，爱彼迎将很难超越其更受欢迎的同行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425b1811b12027157d4dcd81ba478a0c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1275\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What’s worse about Airbnb is that according to&nbsp;Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎更糟糕的是，据彭博社报道，该公司正在向其客户支付数百万美元，让他们保持沉默，而这些客户在预订的公寓内成为各种犯罪的受害者。彭博社甚至发现，该公司有一个预算超过5000万美元的秘密部门，其员工总是试图在事件进入公共领域之前、在媒体介入之前解决所有事件，以保持其声誉完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.</p><p><blockquote>因此，数百个故事仍未被报道，因为该公司向被冒犯的客户付款以换取保密协议。通过这样做，爱彼迎试图隐瞒在租来的公寓里不安全的住宿和各种暴力案件的事实。虽然到目前为止，这帮助爱彼迎避免了一场重大的声誉危机，但这表明该公司的商业模式存在一些重大缺陷，因为它建立在陌生人可以相互信任的理念之上。</blockquote></p><p> As the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司的进一步发展，可用房源数量每天都在增加，爱彼迎可能会出现无法让一些被冒犯的客户噤声的情况，从而面临声誉危机，这将对其股票产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> Considering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it&nbsp;trades&nbsp;at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们认为爱彼迎是一只有风险的股票，特别是因为它的交易价格几乎是其销售额的 17 倍。其股价从几个月前的峰值下跌表明，这一势头正在慢慢消退，我们认为该股短期内没有可能从目前的长期水平走高。此外，由于 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的传播，欧洲可能出现的声誉危机以及进一步封锁的风险也超过了拥有该公司的机会。因此，我们认为最好避免爱彼迎维持在目前的水平，因为该公司面临着诸多挑战，这将使其更难很快恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436955-airbnb-not-a-lot-of-upside-at-this-stage\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436955-airbnb-not-a-lot-of-upside-at-this-stage","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106703008","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe believe that the upside of owning Airbnb shares is fairly limited.\nThere’s a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future.\nConsidering that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Best Short Ideas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.Learn More »\n\nstockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nDespite being one of the hottest IPOs of the last years, we believe that the upside of owning Airbnb (ABNB) shares is fairly limited. Not only the company will struggle to return to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but there’s also a risk that Airbnb could face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its share price in the future. Considering this and the fact that Airbnb already trades at nearly 17 times its sales, we believe that it’s better to avoid it at the current stage.\nLots of Challenges Ahead\nFounded in 2008 by students B. Chesky, J. Gebbia, and N. Blecharczyk, Airbnb has grown from couch-surfing service to one of the biggest hospitality companies in the world with 5.6 million listings and a market value of ~$90 billion. The company’s stock has appreciated by over 100% since it went public in December 2020 but in recent months Airbnb’s shares have declined by almost 40% since their peak and currently trade around ~$150 per share. Despite this, Airbnb’s stock still had a better performance than the S&P 500 Index in the last few quarters, and at the current market capitalization the company is valued higher than Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), and Hyatt Hotels (H) combined.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nWhile the stock had performed relatively well for those who managed to purchase Airbnb right after its IPO, the company’s financials show that its business is still far away from recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. While Airbnb’s management tried to minimize its losses to weather the pandemic by decreasing costs of revenues and optimizing the headcount last year, its R&D expenses were still significantly up Y/Y.\nIn addition, in Q1 alone Airbnb reported $1.17 billion in losses, as its major markets haven’t fully opened during the three months, while some countries even tightened movement restrictions, which led to the poor performance of the bottom line. On top of that, Airbnb also spent $377 million on debt repayment, $292 million in connection with the load agreement warrants, $113 million on operating lease assets and office space improvements, and $229 million on its stock-based compensation program.\nOn top of that, Airbnb has also reported a negative EBITDA of -$59 million in Q1, while its net operating margin fell to an unprecedented negative value. With such poor results, it’s safe to assume that it will take at least a couple of years for Airbnb’s business to return to its pre-COVID-19 levels.\nAnother downside of Airbnb is that it seems that it’s not gaining any market share in a post-pandemic world. As travel restrictions are lifted, Americans are looking to travel again and are already preparing for summer vacations. However, according to Statista’s survey, the most popular option of booking accommodations in 2021 is through the accommodation's own website rather than through Airbnb or Booking (BKNG). On top of that, with such a variety of choices and services, it will be significantly harder for Airbnb to outperform its more popular peers due to the lack of a pricing advantage.\nSource: Statista\nWhat’s worse about Airbnb is that according to Bloomberg, the company is paying its clients, who are becoming victims of various crimes inside the booked apartments, millions of dollars for their silence. Bloomberg even found out that the company has a secret department with a budget of over $50 million, whose employees always try to resolve all incidents before they enter a public domain and before the press is involved, in order to keep its reputation intact.\nAs a result, hundreds of stories remain unreported, as the company pays to offended clients in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement. By doing so, Airbnb tries to hide facts about unsafe stays in rented apartments and various cases of violence. While so far, this helped Airbnb to avoid a major reputational crisis, it shows that the company’s business model has some major flaws, as it rests on the idea that strangers can trust one another.\nAs the company grows further and the number of available listings increases every day, there’s a risk that there might be a situation where Airbnb won’t be able to silence some of its offended clients and as a result, it will face a reputational crisis, which will negatively affect its stock.\nConsidering all of this, we believe that Airbnb is a risky stock to own, especially since it trades at nearly 17 times its sales. The decline in its shares from the peak a couple of months ago shows that the momentum is slowly fading away and we don’t see a potential for a stock to trade higher from the current levels in the long run anytime soon. In addition, the possible reputational crisis along with the risk of further lockdowns in Europe due to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 also outweighs the opportunities of owning the company. For that reason, we believe that it’s better to avoid Airbnb at the current levels, as the company faces numerous challenges that will make it even harder for it to recover to its pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159601325,"gmtCreate":1624959452067,"gmtModify":1633946517191,"author":{"id":"3571022441007124","authorId":"3571022441007124","name":"flersg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c6ea16f7b570c4380b80f32bb5a266","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571022441007124","authorIdStr":"3571022441007124"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159601325","repostId":"2146388793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}