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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-07-01
Up up up
EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>
EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and L
EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-24
[贱笑]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-22
[惊讶]
One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>
Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their "facts" into conte
One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-18
What next?
Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>
Duck for cover, gold bulls. That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the preci
Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-16
Samsung phone
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-15
Costco
My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>
These companies make good long-term core holdings. Stock investing starts with picking the right com
My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-13
For rich people only
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-12
[得意]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-12
Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media
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IchiGo
IchiGo
·
2021-06-11
Yeah[得意]
China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>
(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a
China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>
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up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158695522","repostId":"1175411154","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175411154","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625146583,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175411154?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175411154","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and L","content":"<p>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于车辆交付，电动汽车股在周四早盘交易中飙升。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 1% 至 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a850dc2f94b465cace256883ee0685a8\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%；</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng delivered 6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在2021年6月交付了6,565辆汽车，创下历史新高，同比增长617%；</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street expects Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计特斯拉公司最近一个季度的交付量约为 20 万辆，这对于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 制造的电动汽车来说将是一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 21:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于车辆交付，电动汽车股在周四早盘交易中飙升。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 1% 至 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a850dc2f94b465cace256883ee0685a8\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%；</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng delivered 6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在2021年6月交付了6,565辆汽车，创下历史新高，同比增长617%；</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street expects Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计特斯拉公司最近一个季度的交付量约为 20 万辆，这对于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 制造的电动汽车来说将是一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175411154","content_text":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 1% and 6%.\n\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;\nXpeng delivered 6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;\nWall Street expects Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126332421,"gmtCreate":1624544092663,"gmtModify":1631894043637,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126332421","repostId":"1155360226","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129802451,"gmtCreate":1624368115873,"gmtModify":1631894043651,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶] ","listText":"[惊讶] ","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129802451","repostId":"1145563175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145563175","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624359605,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145563175?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145563175","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into conte","content":"<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet <b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky <b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy <i>every</i> traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the <i>outflow</i> of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than <i>bogus</i> US Treasuries are <i>bloated</i> U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is <i>contextually</i> troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage) <i>not</i> making the headlines yet <i>now</i> making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into <i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a <i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the <i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy <i>today</i> (with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s <i>Blitzkrieg</i> or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like <i>you</i> to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real <i>casus belli</i> (reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was <i>already</i> in a debt crisis long <i>before</i> the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and <b>tanking currencies</b> try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that <i>real</i> rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet <b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky <b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy <i>every</i> traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the <i>outflow</i> of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than <i>bogus</i> US Treasuries are <i>bloated</i> U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is <i>contextually</i> troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage) <i>not</i> making the headlines yet <i>now</i> making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into <i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a <i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the <i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy <i>today</i> (with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s <i>Blitzkrieg</i> or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like <i>you</i> to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real <i>casus belli</i> (reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was <i>already</i> in a debt crisis long <i>before</i> the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and <b>tanking currencies</b> try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that <i>real</i> rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145563175","content_text":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.\nToward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.\nContext 1: The Rising Growth Headline\nRecently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.\nFair enough.\nBut given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…\n\n…such “growth” is not surprising.\nIn other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.\nIn a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.\nIn short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.\nAnd yet the madness continues…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.\nContext 2: The Treasury “Market”?\nHow can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?\nSounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?\nSuch context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.\nThe Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.\nIn short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”\nWith central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.\nContext 3: Deflation is back?\nHardly.\nLast week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.\nThe very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky rather than “transitory”and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.\nBut if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.\nAs I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—tanking markets or surging inflation.Eventually, we foresee both.\nMeanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.\nTranslated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.\nContext 4: Rising Stock Markets\nDespite reaching nosebleed levels which defy every traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.\nBut context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.\n\nNo Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks\nBased upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.\nThis is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.\nThe next question is “why”?\nThe answer is multiple yet simple.\nFirst, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.\nStated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.\nInflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.\nSuch deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the outflow of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.\nOption 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.\nSadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than bogus US Treasuries are bloated U.S. stocks.\nIn short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.\nDon’t believe me?\nSee for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:\nThis is contextually troublesome for a number of reasons.\nFirst, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).\nLonger term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…\nAs for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.\nOf course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.\nNothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.\nRight now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.\nYet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.\nThat could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.\nIn short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.\nThe sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage) not making the headlines yet now making all-time highs.\nAs a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.\nJust saying…\nContext 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth\nThe World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.\nGood stuff, right?\nWell, not when placed into context…\nThe last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a global world war.\nObviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.\nComing out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…\nAs the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.\nWhat followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.\nIn short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.\nThe same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.\nNeedless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.\nIronically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the Wehrmacht, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy today (with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s Blitzkrieg or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.\nWhen it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?\nThe policy makers would like you to think so.\nFolks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real casus belli (reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.\nBut regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.\nThe simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was already in a debt crisis long before the first Corona headline of early 2020.\nToday, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.\n\nSo, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.\nIn the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.\nGiven this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.\nBut as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.\nThe Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.\nAt some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.\nAs more printed and tanking currencies try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.\nAt that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.\nWonderful…\nContext 6: That Barbaric Relic?\nWhat the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.\nThis further means that real rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.\nSuch negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.\nHow’s that for context?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168200103,"gmtCreate":1623975259202,"gmtModify":1631894043662,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What next?","listText":"What next?","text":"What next?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168200103","repostId":"1107055650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107055650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623975076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107055650?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:11","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107055650","media":"Barrons","summary":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the preci","content":"<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The S&P 500 finished the day little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term. Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China announced plans to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 08:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The S&P 500 finished the day little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term. Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China announced plans to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107055650","content_text":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.\nOn a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.\nGold miners also got hit hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The S&P 500 finished the day little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.\nWhile the central bank held policy steady, it also signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.\nRecent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.\nGold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.\n“Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.\nIndeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.\n“The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term. Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.\nSilver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China announced plans to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160287034,"gmtCreate":1623799770928,"gmtModify":1631894043676,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Samsung phone","listText":"Samsung phone","text":"Samsung phone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160287034","repostId":"2143806765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184758667,"gmtCreate":1623726625759,"gmtModify":1631889164117,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Costco","listText":"Costco","text":"Costco","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184758667","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167323938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723810,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167323938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167323938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right com","content":"<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是良好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资始于选择合适的公司。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格上涨之前找到 nextmeme 股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位的优质公司的股票，这些公司具有不容易复制的竞争优势。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合这一描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）已成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则来做到这一点，这些原则包括以客户为中心、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润率较高的亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在是如此的主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个引人注目的主张。例如，当它进一步销售食品和服装时，就发生了这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司利润增长了一倍多，从 40 亿美元增至 88 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 好市多</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b> (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、大量的商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了一批忠实且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。好市多的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年于6月30日结束）。与此同时，其保留率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买有信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层亦密切关注改善业绩。多年来，该公司的同店销售额（comps）一直为正，在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换的影响后，去年增长了9%。在过去的五年里，经营利润从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021 年前三个季度，Comps 增长了 15.2%，经营利润增长了 26% 以上，达到 44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到高于好市多 0.8% 的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将 5 月份的付款从上一季度的 0.70 美元增加到 0.79 美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大量特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b> (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过 2.4 亿客户提供服务。该公司在近六十年前开设了第一家折扣店，它压缩了成本，并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给了顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够提供最低的商品价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步，投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验。这包括推出订阅服务 Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%，达到5642亿美元，推动经营利润上涨9.3%，达到234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。它对扁平经营利润的指导评级。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种前景无疑让一些投资者失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持主导零售商的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供 1.6% 的收益率，并且自 1974 年开始派息以来，每年都会提高季度股息。已经是股息贵族，当连胜纪录达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每一家都是你投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长的股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长的股票，以及一家持续增长并定期增加对股东的支付的主导零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是良好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资始于选择合适的公司。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格上涨之前找到 nextmeme 股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位的优质公司的股票，这些公司具有不容易复制的竞争优势。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合这一描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）已成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则来做到这一点，这些原则包括以客户为中心、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润率较高的亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在是如此的主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个引人注目的主张。例如，当它进一步销售食品和服装时，就发生了这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司利润增长了一倍多，从 40 亿美元增至 88 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 好市多</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b> (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、大量的商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了一批忠实且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。好市多的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年于6月30日结束）。与此同时，其保留率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买有信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层亦密切关注改善业绩。多年来，该公司的同店销售额（comps）一直为正，在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换的影响后，去年增长了9%。在过去的五年里，经营利润从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021 年前三个季度，Comps 增长了 15.2%，经营利润增长了 26% 以上，达到 44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到高于好市多 0.8% 的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将 5 月份的付款从上一季度的 0.70 美元增加到 0.79 美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大量特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b> (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过 2.4 亿客户提供服务。该公司在近六十年前开设了第一家折扣店，它压缩了成本，并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给了顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够提供最低的商品价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步，投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验。这包括推出订阅服务 Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%，达到5642亿美元，推动经营利润上涨9.3%，达到234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。它对扁平经营利润的指导评级。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种前景无疑让一些投资者失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持主导零售商的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供 1.6% 的收益率，并且自 1974 年开始派息以来，每年都会提高季度股息。已经是股息贵族，当连胜纪录达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每一家都是你投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长的股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长的股票，以及一家持续增长并定期增加对股东的支付的主导零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","COST":"好市多","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167323938","content_text":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.\nInstead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.\nIts presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.\nWhile its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.\n2. Costco\nCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.\nCostco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.\nWith a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.\nManagement also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.\nRecent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.\nWhile income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.\n3. Walmart\nWalmart (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.\nIt isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.\nLast year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.\nWhile this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.\nWalmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.\nWhile these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.\nThat's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182548583,"gmtCreate":1623592515042,"gmtModify":1631894043689,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"For rich people only","listText":"For rich people only","text":"For rich people only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182548583","repostId":"1191179846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188500530,"gmtCreate":1623453043520,"gmtModify":1631894043701,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[得意] ","listText":"[得意] ","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188500530","repostId":"2142273201","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188276445,"gmtCreate":1623452787587,"gmtModify":1631894043716,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","listText":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","text":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188276445","repostId":"1183458691","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181022637,"gmtCreate":1623368208629,"gmtModify":1631894043725,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah[得意] ","listText":"Yeah[得意] ","text":"Yeah[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181022637","repostId":"1152704038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152704038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623367425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152704038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152704038","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152704038","content_text":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.\nThe company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.\nAt that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.\nIn its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.\nFor 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.\nHowever, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.\nCHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH\nDidi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.\nThe mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.\nEarlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.\nLast year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.\nDidi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.\nDidi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)\nDidi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.\nGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}