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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-04-09
  Yes baba undervalued
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,421 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-31
  Buy
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,325 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-29
  They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks
  Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>
  Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri
  Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>
  1,652 1
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-26
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,836 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-25
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$drop to $70 also possible
  2,408 1
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-23
  $Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Below $100 to start buying
  2,309 2
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-19
  Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,899 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-18
  No, too expensive
  Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
  We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitati
  Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
  1,333 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-17
  Crash and burn
  What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>
  The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra
  What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>
  1,415 评论
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- WSSWSS
  ·2021-03-17
  Drop to $15 then consider
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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baba undervalued","listText":"Yes baba undervalued","text":"Yes baba undervalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348801207","repostId":"2125770926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354155225,"gmtCreate":1617153698867,"gmtModify":1634522385047,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354155225","repostId":"1165607470","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352253009,"gmtCreate":1616980209701,"gmtModify":1634523343459,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","listText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","text":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352253009","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358447463,"gmtCreate":1616725680252,"gmtModify":1634524338935,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358447463","repostId":"1176747936","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351524538,"gmtCreate":1616606285924,"gmtModify":1631883800829,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$drop to $70 also possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351524538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353289995,"gmtCreate":1616501004317,"gmtModify":1634525510881,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Below $100 to start buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353289995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327445643,"gmtCreate":1616120218082,"gmtModify":1634527129210,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327445643","repostId":"2120933161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327942143,"gmtCreate":1616054873882,"gmtModify":1703496941098,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No, too expensive","listText":"No, too expensive","text":"No, too expensive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327942143","repostId":"2119971630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119971630","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616054515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119971630?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119971630","media":"Insider Monkey","summary":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitati","content":"<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606273129822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Insider Monkey</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/\">Insider Monkey</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119971630","content_text":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ).Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell? Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from one quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW), Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324640640,"gmtCreate":1615991108080,"gmtModify":1703496083732,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crash and burn","listText":"Crash and burn","text":"Crash and burn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324640640","repostId":"1139863038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139863038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615985802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139863038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139863038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra","content":"<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139863038","content_text":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows.  We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?Debt-Driven EconomyOver the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.U.S. Economic FragilityAs shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.In Wicksell’s Elegant Model we stated: “On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.Measuring FragilityLooking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.SummaryThe proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.  However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324657813,"gmtCreate":1615991040632,"gmtModify":1703496081648,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","idStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Drop to $15 then consider","listText":"Drop to $15 then consider","text":"Drop to $15 then consider","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324657813","repostId":"1179894269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}