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冰棍棍儿

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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-23
  $英伟达(NVDA)$ 政策没有什么信用，大趋势还是要被国产挤压盈利空间
  1,125 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-18
  准备好资金随时开空
  若特朗普真“开了”鲍威尔，对市场意味着什么？这是高盛的“金价4500美元”情景
  尽管特朗普一再以解雇威胁鲍威尔采取降息，但此举并不具备法律合理性，美国最高法院5月对“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能为其干预美联储决策打开大门。在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致对美元体系信心的崩塌，进而推动金价飙升。
  若特朗普真“开了”鲍威尔，对市场意味着什么？这是高盛的“金价4500美元”情景
  1,478 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-17
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 今天直接爆了呀，集体下杀
  1,283 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-10
  $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 34.5开单
  1,557 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-09
  中国做空美债就行了，手里那么多票，直接核爆
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  252 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-07
  $A50指数主连 2504(CNmain)$ 今天拉五个点就爽了
  1,319 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·04-07
  $三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 24开仓，捡钱了
  1,385 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·2024-09-19
  降息大涨，不降也大涨。。。。看看明天a股什么反应
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,980 1
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·2024-05-25
  $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ 下不来了这是，持续拉高
  2,685 评论
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- 冰棍棍儿冰棍棍儿
  ·2024-01-05
  $以星航运(ZIM)$ 能到50吗
  4,105 评论
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政策没有什么信用，大趋势还是要被国产挤压盈利空间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427591913071432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425791005225544,"gmtCreate":1744976294867,"gmtModify":1744976301105,"author":{"id":"3573125605148257","authorId":"3573125605148257","name":"冰棍棍儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a648587f134de396ca3eb735261ac6e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573125605148257","authorIdStr":"3573125605148257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"准备好资金随时开空","listText":"准备好资金随时开空","text":"准备好资金随时开空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/425791005225544","repostId":"2528036039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2528036039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1744962202,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2528036039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-18 15:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"若特朗普真“开了”鲍威尔，对市场意味着什么？这是高盛的“金价4500美元”情景","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2528036039","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管特朗普一再以解雇威胁鲍威尔采取降息，但此举并不具备法律合理性，美国最高法院5月对“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能为其干预美联储决策打开大门。在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致对美元体系信心的崩塌，进而推动金价飙升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>尽管特朗普一再以解雇威胁鲍威尔采取降息，但此举并不具备法律合理性，美国最高法院5月对“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能为其干预美联储决策打开大门。在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致对美元体系信心的崩塌，进而推动金价飙升。</p></blockquote><p>特朗普对鲍威尔下战书？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>警告：美联储独立性危机或引发金价飙升。</p><p>眼看欧洲央行一再降息，特朗普再次将矛头直指鲍威尔，扬言再不降息就要解雇他——这正在给金融市场带来新的不确定性。</p><p>分析指出，尽管法律上不明确，<strong>但特朗普团队内部与市场专家均警告此举可能导致严重的市场崩溃。</strong></p><p>高盛指出，历史上每当中央银行失去独立性时，都会导致法定货币信心危机，金价因此大幅上涨。高盛预测，<strong>一旦美联储沦为政治工具，将推升金价涨至4500美元/盎司。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_273445388\">特朗普急了？一天3遍点名炮轰鲍威尔</h2><p>当地时间周三，鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话，其间他重申，关税政策等政策让经济面临很高的不确定性，联储要等到形势更明朗再考虑降息。当被问及美联储是否会在股市暴跌时干预时，鲍威尔直言不会。</p><p>周四早上，特朗普在社交媒体媒体发帖称：</p><blockquote><p>总是太迟和错误的”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔昨天发布了一份报告，<strong>这是又一次典型的、完全的“混乱”！</strong></p><p>鲍威尔早就应该像欧洲央行那样降低利率，但他现在应该肯定降低它们。<strong>鲍威尔的离职越快越好！</strong></p></blockquote><p><strong>周四美股午盘时段，特朗普又两次喊话鲍威尔。</strong></p><p>特朗普说：我认为鲍威尔并没有做好本职工作。如果我提出要求，他就得离开。鲍威尔让我高兴不起来。他总是行动迟缓；隔了几十分钟，特朗普又“炮轰”鲍威尔，说美联储应当降息，这是联储亏欠美国民众的。鲍威尔将面临很大的政治压力。</p><p>据媒体报道，<strong>特朗普已经谈论解雇鲍威尔有一段时间了，但他的顾问们一直在努力阻止。</strong></p><p>特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上坚称，如果他要求鲍威尔离职，鲍威尔就会下台。但当特朗普被问及是否试图罢免美联储主席时，他没有给出明确答案；而鲍威尔则坚决表态，自己不会离开。</p><h2 id=\"id_1084138726\">特朗普做得到吗？关键看5月的这项裁决</h2><p>这其中的一个关键问题是：特朗普是否有权力解雇鲍威尔？</p><p>目前看来，这个答案并不明确。</p><p>根据联邦法律，美联储理事由总统提名，并经参议院确认，任期为14年；其中1人同时担任主席，任期为4年。这期间，总统必须“有正当理由”（通常理解为不当行为或渎职）才能解除他们的职务。</p><p>这一限制旨在保护美联储不受政治干预。<strong>然而，美国最高法院5月的一项裁决可能会改变这一切。</strong></p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，特朗普政府已紧急请求美国最高法院授权总统解雇两家独立联邦机构的高级官员（国家劳动关系委员会的Gwynne Wilcox和功绩制保护委员会的Cathy Harris），并要求在5月举行特别开庭审理此案。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Krishna Guha警告，“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能会通过扩大总统权力，<strong>允许总统解雇先前被认为不受政治压力影响的机构的官员，从而破坏美联储和其他政府机构的独立性。</strong></p><p>鲍威尔在周三讲话也提及此案：</p><blockquote><p>“有人经常谈论这个案例。我不认为这个决定会适用于美联储，但我不确定。我们目前密切监控的情况是这样。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2201988519\">贝森特和沃伦警告：市场崩溃风险迫在眉睫</h2><p>据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特已多次警告白宫官员，<strong>任何试图解雇鲍威尔的行为都可能使金融市场不稳定。</strong></p><p>与此同时，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）也在接受采访时警告，解雇美联储主席可能导致美国市场崩溃。</p><p>虽然沃伦常常公开批评鲍威尔，但她承认解雇美联储主席将带来非常大的风险：</p><blockquote><p>“虽然我经常与鲍威尔就法规和利率问题发生冲突，但请理解这一点：如果美国总统可以解雇鲍威尔主席，它将使美国市场崩溃。”</p></blockquote><p>Schwab金融研究中心首席固定收益策略师Kathy Jones告诫说，<strong>试图解雇鲍威尔可能会加剧对美国国债和美元的抛售，这种模式通常只出现在新兴市场经济体或当对一个国家的治理信心被动摇时才会出现。</strong></p><p>Jones表示：</p><blockquote><p>“这在主要发达国家是不会做的事情，他越是这样大力推进，情况就越糟。”</p><p>“即使投资者认可鲍威尔的潜在替代者，但损害已经造成——债券收益率将上升，美元下跌。因为没有任何可信度可言。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2762310861\">高盛：美联储“被控制”的极端情况下，金价将飙到4500美元</h2><p>在这场关于美联储独立性的争论中，高盛的分析师警告称，一旦美联储失去独立性，市场将面临极端波动。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，在高盛的极端情景预测中，<strong>一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致美元贬值、实际利率下降，进而推动金价飙升。</strong></p><p>当美联储的决策不再基于经济数据而是基于白宫的政治需求时，黄金将被作为避险资产疯抢。高盛指出，历史上每当中央银行失去独立性时，都会导致法定货币信心危机，金价因此大幅上涨。</p><p>高盛预计，在极端尾部风险情境下，如市场对美联储从属或美国储备政策变化风险的关注增加，导致央行需求持续升至110吨/月，美国衰退带来ETF持有量反弹至疫情时期水平，投机性头寸达到历史范围顶部，<strong>金价到2025年底可能接近4500美元/盎司。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>若特朗普真“开了”鲍威尔，对市场意味着什么？这是高盛的“金价4500美元”情景</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n若特朗普真“开了”鲍威尔，对市场意味着什么？这是高盛的“金价4500美元”情景\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-18 15:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745467><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管特朗普一再以解雇威胁鲍威尔采取降息，但此举并不具备法律合理性，美国最高法院5月对“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能为其干预美联储决策打开大门。在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致对美元体系信心的崩塌，进而推动金价飙升。特朗普对鲍威尔下战书？高盛警告：美联储独立性危机或引发金价飙升。眼看欧洲央行一再降息，特朗普再次将矛头直指鲍威尔，扬言...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745467\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a08f80442b43a4ae11e65452198eae","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745467","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2528036039","content_text":"尽管特朗普一再以解雇威胁鲍威尔采取降息，但此举并不具备法律合理性，美国最高法院5月对“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能为其干预美联储决策打开大门。在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致对美元体系信心的崩塌，进而推动金价飙升。特朗普对鲍威尔下战书？高盛警告：美联储独立性危机或引发金价飙升。眼看欧洲央行一再降息，特朗普再次将矛头直指鲍威尔，扬言再不降息就要解雇他——这正在给金融市场带来新的不确定性。分析指出，尽管法律上不明确，但特朗普团队内部与市场专家均警告此举可能导致严重的市场崩溃。高盛指出，历史上每当中央银行失去独立性时，都会导致法定货币信心危机，金价因此大幅上涨。高盛预测，一旦美联储沦为政治工具，将推升金价涨至4500美元/盎司。特朗普急了？一天3遍点名炮轰鲍威尔当地时间周三，鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话，其间他重申，关税政策等政策让经济面临很高的不确定性，联储要等到形势更明朗再考虑降息。当被问及美联储是否会在股市暴跌时干预时，鲍威尔直言不会。周四早上，特朗普在社交媒体媒体发帖称：总是太迟和错误的”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔昨天发布了一份报告，这是又一次典型的、完全的“混乱”！鲍威尔早就应该像欧洲央行那样降低利率，但他现在应该肯定降低它们。鲍威尔的离职越快越好！周四美股午盘时段，特朗普又两次喊话鲍威尔。特朗普说：我认为鲍威尔并没有做好本职工作。如果我提出要求，他就得离开。鲍威尔让我高兴不起来。他总是行动迟缓；隔了几十分钟，特朗普又“炮轰”鲍威尔，说美联储应当降息，这是联储亏欠美国民众的。鲍威尔将面临很大的政治压力。据媒体报道，特朗普已经谈论解雇鲍威尔有一段时间了，但他的顾问们一直在努力阻止。特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上坚称，如果他要求鲍威尔离职，鲍威尔就会下台。但当特朗普被问及是否试图罢免美联储主席时，他没有给出明确答案；而鲍威尔则坚决表态，自己不会离开。特朗普做得到吗？关键看5月的这项裁决这其中的一个关键问题是：特朗普是否有权力解雇鲍威尔？目前看来，这个答案并不明确。根据联邦法律，美联储理事由总统提名，并经参议院确认，任期为14年；其中1人同时担任主席，任期为4年。这期间，总统必须“有正当理由”（通常理解为不当行为或渎职）才能解除他们的职务。这一限制旨在保护美联储不受政治干预。然而，美国最高法院5月的一项裁决可能会改变这一切。华尔街见闻此前提及，特朗普政府已紧急请求美国最高法院授权总统解雇两家独立联邦机构的高级官员（国家劳动关系委员会的Gwynne Wilcox和功绩制保护委员会的Cathy Harris），并要求在5月举行特别开庭审理此案。Evercore ISI分析师Krishna Guha警告，“特朗普诉Wilcox”案的裁决可能会通过扩大总统权力，允许总统解雇先前被认为不受政治压力影响的机构的官员，从而破坏美联储和其他政府机构的独立性。鲍威尔在周三讲话也提及此案：“有人经常谈论这个案例。我不认为这个决定会适用于美联储，但我不确定。我们目前密切监控的情况是这样。”贝森特和沃伦警告：市场崩溃风险迫在眉睫据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特已多次警告白宫官员，任何试图解雇鲍威尔的行为都可能使金融市场不稳定。与此同时，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）也在接受采访时警告，解雇美联储主席可能导致美国市场崩溃。虽然沃伦常常公开批评鲍威尔，但她承认解雇美联储主席将带来非常大的风险：“虽然我经常与鲍威尔就法规和利率问题发生冲突，但请理解这一点：如果美国总统可以解雇鲍威尔主席，它将使美国市场崩溃。”Schwab金融研究中心首席固定收益策略师Kathy Jones告诫说，试图解雇鲍威尔可能会加剧对美国国债和美元的抛售，这种模式通常只出现在新兴市场经济体或当对一个国家的治理信心被动摇时才会出现。Jones表示：“这在主要发达国家是不会做的事情，他越是这样大力推进，情况就越糟。”“即使投资者认可鲍威尔的潜在替代者，但损害已经造成——债券收益率将上升，美元下跌。因为没有任何可信度可言。”高盛：美联储“被控制”的极端情况下，金价将飙到4500美元在这场关于美联储独立性的争论中，高盛的分析师警告称，一旦美联储失去独立性，市场将面临极端波动。华尔街见闻此前提及，在高盛的极端情景预测中，一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力，不顾通胀风险而大幅降息，这将导致美元贬值、实际利率下降，进而推动金价飙升。当美联储的决策不再基于经济数据而是基于白宫的政治需求时，黄金将被作为避险资产疯抢。高盛指出，历史上每当中央银行失去独立性时，都会导致法定货币信心危机，金价因此大幅上涨。高盛预计，在极端尾部风险情境下，如市场对美联储从属或美国储备政策变化风险的关注增加，导致央行需求持续升至110吨/月，美国衰退带来ETF持有量反弹至疫情时期水平，投机性头寸达到历史范围顶部，金价到2025年底可能接近4500美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425231129178488,"gmtCreate":1744826268787,"gmtModify":1744826270289,"author":{"id":"3573125605148257","authorId":"3573125605148257","name":"冰棍棍儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a648587f134de396ca3eb735261ac6e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573125605148257","authorIdStr":"3573125605148257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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