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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  [Gosh] [Gosh] [Gosh]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Good read
  Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>
  Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank
  Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Interesting post !
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Yessas
  AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>
  Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks. A multipronged bet onAMC Enter
  AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Great article !
  Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>
  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris
  Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Pls like and comment thanks
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  [Miser]
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Nice
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- SherrsSherrs
  ·2021-06-13
  Yes
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[Gosh] [Gosh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186753496","repostId":"1124998394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186759694,"gmtCreate":1623543918318,"gmtModify":1634032051870,"author":{"id":"3573174276560010","authorId":"3573174276560010","name":"Sherrs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f003f4af6fc65fd76a1951870f6d3bc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573174276560010","authorIdStr":"3573174276560010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186759694","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什 (Michael Brush) 就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足够高的水平，足以撼动股市，可能导致高达 15% 的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并促使美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都将扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，将通货膨胀率推至5%的13年来新高。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的相反。在此之前，我们先来看看今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，10 年期国债收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% 升至 1.7%？好吧，期待重复。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观经济学家弗兰齐斯卡-帕尔马斯（Franziska Palmas）说：”我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。她的研究小组预计，到今年年底，10年期国债收益率为2.25%，到2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>这将比目前的 1.5% 水平有很大的进步。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Fed渐缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）淡化了央行缩减债券购买规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。联邦公开市场委员会是制定货币政策的美联储部门。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>“《预测市场》（Predicting the Markets）一书的作者、亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）负责人埃德-亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）说：”在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔将越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得'实质性进一步进展'。鲍威尔曾多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得 “实质性进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼预测：”鉴于经济的表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。缩减规模是指美联储减少债券购买。这收紧了货币供应，从而抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会在股市中引发 “缩减规模狂潮”，这意味着标普500 SPX 指数（+0.19%）、道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.04%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.35%）等指数将大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如何应对债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩可能导致的抛售时，要记住的关键是为什么这些事情会发生，以及历史告诉我们股票如何表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减收益率和不断上升的债券收益率会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但事实并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌，或者充其量是横盘波动。但随后随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了困境并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩政策的发生是有充分理由的，有助于企业——强劲的经济增长。这将收益推高很多，从而将估值重置为较低的水平——回到投资者感到舒适的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>“Leuthold 市场策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，让市场走高。这是一个健康的发展”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场烟火，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将把标普500的收益推至年底的220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，该指数的市盈率（P/E）将降至 18-19，接近或低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。“他说：”这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 不要采取“防御”策略</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的 “稳定”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取守势，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性的名字会带来收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也受到利率上升的打击，这会降低股息以及支付股息的股票和债券的价值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最好方法是将你的投资组合与过热的经济联系起来。这是利润增长和利润杠杆最好的地方，”保尔森说。“防守是得不到的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 选择受益于增长的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济快速增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着工业股、基础材料消费品、小盘股和国际股票等周期性股票。“保尔森说：”增长放缓的消费品和公用事业将跟不上市场的增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议 Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17% 和 Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在 2020 年 9 月和 2019 年 11 月温习股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。我仍然喜欢并拥有这两款产品，尽管它们分别上涨了 48% 和 157%，是标普500的两到四倍。最近的内部买入证实他们正在买入并持有当前水平附近。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。林德布拉德提供前往异国情调的专门邮轮探险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要出货</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购可能很有诱惑力。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握正确的时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼说：”你必须做出两个明智的决定。“你必须在纠错前下车，然后再决定什么时候回来。我不知道有多少人能坚持这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器经常出局后再也进不来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“保尔森说：”试图避免更正可能会给自己带来麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到 2% 或更高。因此，不要持有债券，因为当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌--除非你只是打算持有到期以获得收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 理财</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着 10 年期国债的长期利率上升速度比短期利率快得多。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年 8 月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通 JPM（-0.07%）和美国银行 BAC（+0.41%）的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得拥有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被骗了--通货膨胀是股市投资者的一大风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什 (Michael Brush) 就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足够高的水平，足以撼动股市，可能导致高达 15% 的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并促使美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都将扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，将通货膨胀率推至5%的13年来新高。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的相反。在此之前，我们先来看看今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，10 年期国债收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% 升至 1.7%？好吧，期待重复。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观经济学家弗兰齐斯卡-帕尔马斯（Franziska Palmas）说：”我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。她的研究小组预计，到今年年底，10年期国债收益率为2.25%，到2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>这将比目前的 1.5% 水平有很大的进步。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Fed渐缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）淡化了央行缩减债券购买规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。联邦公开市场委员会是制定货币政策的美联储部门。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>“《预测市场》（Predicting the Markets）一书的作者、亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）负责人埃德-亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）说：”在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔将越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得'实质性进一步进展'。鲍威尔曾多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得 “实质性进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼预测：”鉴于经济的表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。缩减规模是指美联储减少债券购买。这收紧了货币供应，从而抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会在股市中引发 “缩减规模狂潮”，这意味着标普500 SPX 指数（+0.19%）、道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.04%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.35%）等指数将大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如何应对债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩可能导致的抛售时，要记住的关键是为什么这些事情会发生，以及历史告诉我们股票如何表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减收益率和不断上升的债券收益率会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但事实并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌，或者充其量是横盘波动。但随后随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了困境并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩政策的发生是有充分理由的，有助于企业——强劲的经济增长。这将收益推高很多，从而将估值重置为较低的水平——回到投资者感到舒适的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>“Leuthold 市场策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，让市场走高。这是一个健康的发展”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场烟火，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将把标普500的收益推至年底的220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，该指数的市盈率（P/E）将降至 18-19，接近或低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。“他说：”这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 不要采取“防御”策略</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的 “稳定”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取守势，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性的名字会带来收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也受到利率上升的打击，这会降低股息以及支付股息的股票和债券的价值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最好方法是将你的投资组合与过热的经济联系起来。这是利润增长和利润杠杆最好的地方，”保尔森说。“防守是得不到的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 选择受益于增长的公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济快速增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着工业股、基础材料消费品、小盘股和国际股票等周期性股票。“保尔森说：”增长放缓的消费品和公用事业将跟不上市场的增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议 Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17% 和 Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在 2020 年 9 月和 2019 年 11 月温习股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。我仍然喜欢并拥有这两款产品，尽管它们分别上涨了 48% 和 157%，是标普500的两到四倍。最近的内部买入证实他们正在买入并持有当前水平附近。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。林德布拉德提供前往异国情调的专门邮轮探险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要出货</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购可能很有诱惑力。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握正确的时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“亚德尼说：”你必须做出两个明智的决定。“你必须在纠错前下车，然后再决定什么时候回来。我不知道有多少人能坚持这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器经常出局后再也进不来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“保尔森说：”试图避免更正可能会给自己带来麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到 2% 或更高。因此，不要持有债券，因为当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌--除非你只是打算持有到期以获得收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 理财</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着 10 年期国债的长期利率上升速度比短期利率快得多。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年 8 月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通 JPM（-0.07%）和美国银行 BAC（+0.41%）的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得拥有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186750123,"gmtCreate":1623543865862,"gmtModify":1634032053098,"author":{"id":"3573174276560010","authorId":"3573174276560010","name":"Sherrs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f003f4af6fc65fd76a1951870f6d3bc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573174276560010","authorIdStr":"3573174276560010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting post !","listText":"Interesting post !","text":"Interesting post !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186750123","repostId":"1133871419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186727335,"gmtCreate":1623543832427,"gmtModify":1634032054211,"author":{"id":"3573174276560010","authorId":"3573174276560010","name":"Sherrs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f003f4af6fc65fd76a1951870f6d3bc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573174276560010","authorIdStr":"3573174276560010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yessas&nbsp;","listText":"Yessas&nbsp;","text":"Yessas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186727335","repostId":"1104635261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104635261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104635261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104635261","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Enter","content":"<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital 的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>多管齐下的赌注 onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39% 本月对 Mudrick Capital Management LP 进行了回旋镖，Mudrick Capital Management LP 是最新一家成为日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约 10%，原因是 AMC 股价的飙升意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 和其他股票的价格在 1 月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）的亏损凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资风险有多大--甚至会对一家与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森-穆德里克（Jason Mudrick）几个月来一直在交易 AMC 的股票、期权和债券，这激发了个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金对 AMC 的风险敞口。这些知情人士说，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以约 40 美元的价格从穆德里克手中购买 AMC 股票的权利，但最近 Reddit 推动的购买活动卷土重来，将 AMC 的股价推向了新纪录，这些衍生品合约却膨胀成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的 AMC 战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital 的高管正在与 AMC 进行谈判，计划于 5 月下旬从该公司购买更多股票。 6 月 1 日，AMC 披露，Mudrick Capital 已同意以每股 27.12 美元的价格直接从该公司购买 2.305 亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了这只股票获利，彭博新闻社报道了这一快速转变，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 1 日，Reddit 华尔街投注论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀.他们搬起石头砸了自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子将穆德里克称为 “失败者”、“人渣袋”和 “一大堆没有未来的 S-T”。论坛成员互相敦促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>在穆德里克内部，随着 AMC 反弹势头的增强，高管们越来越担心。6 月 1 日晚，该公司的风险委员会在股价收于 32 美元后召开会议，决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>已经晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 2 日，AMC 的股价在几个小时内就突破了 40 美元，盘中最高触及 72.62 美元。看涨期权期权价格在穆德里克资本推动的交易狂潮中飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了破产，该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital 出售的债务回报率约为 5%，但在考虑其期权交易后，该基金在 AMC 上净亏损约 5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位人士说，穆德里克先生的基金今年仍上涨了约 12%。与此同时，年初购买 AMC 股票并持有的投资者上涨了约 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的一个决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发了国会听证会，并引起了美国证券交易委员会的审查。现在，越来越多的对冲基金在社交媒体上追踪个人投资者的情绪，并更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率贷款给陷入困境的公司，或者在破产法庭上将现有债务换成股权。穆德里克管理着全公司约 35 亿美元的投资，并持有电子烟制造商 NJOY Holdings Inc. 和卫星通信公司 GlobalStarInc. 的大量非流动性股份。根据汇丰另类投资集团的数据，该旗舰基金报告称，从2018年到2020年，年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但陷入困境的投资机会让 findas 变得更加困难。美联储提供的宽松资金甚至让陷入困境的公司也可以进入债务市场。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，推出了几家特殊目的收购公司，就 AMC 而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于 AMC，以每美元 20 美分的价格购买债券，在 12 月份借给该公司 1 亿美元，并将部分债券交换为新股。在 Covid-19 大流行封锁期间，本已面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC 股价低至 2 美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将重新对大屏幕娱乐产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，日内交易者首次涌入 AMC，在社交媒体上互相敦促#SaveAMC，并短暂地将股价提升至 20 美元左右。AMC 股权价值的上升推高了债券价格--穆德里克资本持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番--很快就回报了穆德里克先生的乐观情绪。AMC 利用其飙升的股价，在 1 月下旬筹集了近 10 亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克出售了 AMC 股票的看涨期权期权，产生了即时收入，以抵消连锁影院确实面临问题时的潜在损失。这些衍生品让买家可以选择以约 40 美元的价格从 Mudrick Capital 购买 AMC 股票——当股价低于 10 美元时，这似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与 AMC 首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 就提供额外资金事宜保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，他将衍生品合约作为保险单保留。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>由于模因股票交易员，对冲基金的 AMC 押注瓦解</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital 的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>多管齐下的赌注 onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39% 本月对 Mudrick Capital Management LP 进行了回旋镖，Mudrick Capital Management LP 是最新一家成为日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约 10%，原因是 AMC 股价的飙升意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 和其他股票的价格在 1 月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。穆德里克资本（Mudrick Capital）的亏损凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资风险有多大--甚至会对一家与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森-穆德里克（Jason Mudrick）几个月来一直在交易 AMC 的股票、期权和债券，这激发了个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金对 AMC 的风险敞口。这些知情人士说，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以约 40 美元的价格从穆德里克手中购买 AMC 股票的权利，但最近 Reddit 推动的购买活动卷土重来，将 AMC 的股价推向了新纪录，这些衍生品合约却膨胀成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的 AMC 战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital 的高管正在与 AMC 进行谈判，计划于 5 月下旬从该公司购买更多股票。 6 月 1 日，AMC 披露，Mudrick Capital 已同意以每股 27.12 美元的价格直接从该公司购买 2.305 亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了这只股票获利，彭博新闻社报道了这一快速转变，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 1 日，Reddit 华尔街投注论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀.他们搬起石头砸了自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子将穆德里克称为 “失败者”、“人渣袋”和 “一大堆没有未来的 S-T”。论坛成员互相敦促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>在穆德里克内部，随着 AMC 反弹势头的增强，高管们越来越担心。6 月 1 日晚，该公司的风险委员会在股价收于 32 美元后召开会议，决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>已经晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6 月 2 日，AMC 的股价在几个小时内就突破了 40 美元，盘中最高触及 72.62 美元。看涨期权期权价格在穆德里克资本推动的交易狂潮中飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了破产，该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital 出售的债务回报率约为 5%，但在考虑其期权交易后，该基金在 AMC 上净亏损约 5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位人士说，穆德里克先生的基金今年仍上涨了约 12%。与此同时，年初购买 AMC 股票并持有的投资者上涨了约 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的一个决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发了国会听证会，并引起了美国证券交易委员会的审查。现在，越来越多的对冲基金在社交媒体上追踪个人投资者的情绪，并更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率贷款给陷入困境的公司，或者在破产法庭上将现有债务换成股权。穆德里克管理着全公司约 35 亿美元的投资，并持有电子烟制造商 NJOY Holdings Inc. 和卫星通信公司 GlobalStarInc. 的大量非流动性股份。根据汇丰另类投资集团的数据，该旗舰基金报告称，从2018年到2020年，年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但陷入困境的投资机会让 findas 变得更加困难。美联储提供的宽松资金甚至让陷入困境的公司也可以进入债务市场。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，推出了几家特殊目的收购公司，就 AMC 而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于 AMC，以每美元 20 美分的价格购买债券，在 12 月份借给该公司 1 亿美元，并将部分债券交换为新股。在 Covid-19 大流行封锁期间，本已面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC 股价低至 2 美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将重新对大屏幕娱乐产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，日内交易者首次涌入 AMC，在社交媒体上互相敦促#SaveAMC，并短暂地将股价提升至 20 美元左右。AMC 股权价值的上升推高了债券价格--穆德里克资本持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番--很快就回报了穆德里克先生的乐观情绪。AMC 利用其飙升的股价，在 1 月下旬筹集了近 10 亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克出售了 AMC 股票的看涨期权期权，产生了即时收入，以抵消连锁影院确实面临问题时的潜在损失。这些衍生品让买家可以选择以约 40 美元的价格从 Mudrick Capital 购买 AMC 股票——当股价低于 10 美元时，这似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与 AMC 首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 就提供额外资金事宜保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，他将衍生品合约作为保险单保留。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104635261","content_text":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.\nMudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.\nThe development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.\nJason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.\nAs part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.\nMudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.\n“Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.\nInside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.\nIt was a day too late.\nAMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.\nMr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.\nThe impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.\nMr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.\nBut distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.\nMr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.\nDay traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.\nAround that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.\nMr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186724914,"gmtCreate":1623543799838,"gmtModify":1634032055170,"author":{"id":"3573174276560010","authorId":"3573174276560010","name":"Sherrs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f003f4af6fc65fd76a1951870f6d3bc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573174276560010","authorIdStr":"3573174276560010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article !","listText":"Great article !","text":"Great article !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186724914","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. 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