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- DazityDazity
  ·2021-02-11
  Wow
  Investors set for commodities ‘bull run’ as prices rise in tandem
  Broad-based recent gains have not been seen in decades and spur talk of ‘supercycle’ The broad upswi
  Investors set for commodities ‘bull run’ as prices rise in tandem
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- DazityDazity
  ·2021-02-10
  Oof
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- DazityDazity
  ·2021-02-08
  Nice
  Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market
  There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop Look who’s back. After a long absence, active indiv
  Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market
  985 评论
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- DazityDazity
  ·2021-02-08
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- DazityDazity
  ·2021-02-08
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Some are even predicting a prolonger period of commodity-intensive growth that marks a repeat of the so-called “supercycle” of the 2000s — where oil and metal prices hit record highs as China’s rapid industrialisation caught the industry napping.</p>\n<p>“It’s easy — and largely accurate — to present the 2021 commodity outlook as a V-shaped vaccine trade,” said Goldman Sachs in a recent report. “What we think is key, however, is that this recovery in commodity prices will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market for commodities.”</p>\n<p>Commodities, which have been out favour with investors for the best part of a decade, have enjoyed a strong run in recent months helped by demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer of natural resources. Soyabean prices are up more than 50 per cent over the past year, while copper has risen around 40 per cent. Oil, meanwhile, has rebounded to its highest since the early days of the coronavirus crisis. Brent, the international standard, hit $60 on Monday.</p>\n<p>The rally has been exceptionally wide-ranging. A basket of 27 commodity futures — from coffee to nickel — tracked by specialist asset manager SummerHaven showed that all had positive returns over the six months to mid-January, including any gains from rolling over futures contracts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27002730a162c7e367ac38b6ffc4ae1\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"1000\"></p>\n<p>“This is really unusual. We’ve looked back 50 years and we’ve never seen this basket of commodities all go up at once,” said managing partner Kurt Nelson.</p>\n<p>Still, some investors say the market is not ready to embark on a new supercycle just yet. “What we certainly do have at the moment is a cyclical recovery driven by restocking in Europe, the US and China and boosted by supply disruptions,” said George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One. He said a broader shift is “two to three years away”.</p>\n<p>SummerHaven’s Nelson says a key catalyst for the rally has been a concern that the unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies enacted during the crisis will feed inflation, encouraging fund managers to protect themselves by buying commonly used hedges such as oil and metals.</p>\n<p>Given that most commodities are priced in dollars, last year’s slide in the value of the greenback is also making them cheaper in other currencies, adding to demand.</p>\n<p>Eliot&nbsp;Geller, a partner at CoreCommodity Management, thinks this macroeconomic backdrop for commodities is stronger than at any time in the previous decade.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“Since 2010, we have seen equity markets rally, a strong US dollar, interest rates trend lower and inflation expectations decline,” he said. “Today, we have the threat of rising inflation, a weaker dollar and interest rates that are already zero or negative.”</p>\n<p>Those predicting a new supercycle — often described as prolonged period of surging demand that outstrips supply — point to global recovery programmes that put greater emphasis on job creation and environmental sustainability than on inflation control.</p>\n<p>“The past decade has seen monetary policy, which was more supportive for financial assets, while current fiscal policy should be more supportive for real assets like commodities,” said Don Casturo, the founder of specialist asset manager Quantix Commodities.</p>\n<p>Commodity bulls also see a supply gap coming. Goldman reckons the energy transition has the potential to create $1tn-$2tn a year in infrastructure investment over the next decade as the world reduces its reliance on carbon. That should drive up demand for a variety of raw materials, including copper, which will be need to wire the solar panels and electric cars of the new economy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020a07ab14b3198018a17698d2bce3eb\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"1000\"></p>\n<p>Years of low prices, meanwhile, have forced producers to curb spending on new projects and expansions, holding back supply. This is not only true of the oil industry, where investment had been slashed, but also mining.</p>\n<p>“There needs to be a price blowout to bring on the new supply,” said James Johnstone, co-head of emerging and frontier markets at&nbsp;RWC Partners, a London-based investment manager that has invested in a number of copper producers.</p>\n<p>Some doubt that this upswing in commodity prices can match the last.</p>\n<p>“Historically a supercycle happens every 30 to 40 years and we are just out of one. So this would be an exception,” said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Swiss private bank Julius Baer. “And if you look at what triggered the last supercycle it was Chinese urbanisation and the immense spend of it. The energy transition won’t happen as quickly.”</p>\n<p>But others think the stage is set for a broad-based rally can well outlast the pandemic. “The set-up for commodities is really extraordinary. Not just for the next three to six months but for the next decade,” said SummerHaven’s Nelson.</p>","source":"lsy1580170736413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors set for commodities ‘bull run’ as prices rise in tandem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors set for commodities ‘bull run’ as prices rise in tandem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 18:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/27086ad8-bc84-4e2e-9195-91880fa6916f><strong>Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Broad-based recent gains have not been seen in decades and spur talk of ‘supercycle’\nThe broad upswing in commodity prices since the depths of the coronavirus crisis represents just the first leg of a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/27086ad8-bc84-4e2e-9195-91880fa6916f\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/27086ad8-bc84-4e2e-9195-91880fa6916f","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144142338","content_text":"Broad-based recent gains have not been seen in decades and spur talk of ‘supercycle’\nThe broad upswing in commodity prices since the depths of the coronavirus crisis represents just the first leg of a sector-wide “bull market” fanned by government spending, analysts and investors say.\nWall Street banks are telling their clients to increase their exposure to raw materials, which are poised to benefit from a vaccine-driven global economic recovery, aided by fiscal stimulus. Some are even predicting a prolonger period of commodity-intensive growth that marks a repeat of the so-called “supercycle” of the 2000s — where oil and metal prices hit record highs as China’s rapid industrialisation caught the industry napping.\n“It’s easy — and largely accurate — to present the 2021 commodity outlook as a V-shaped vaccine trade,” said Goldman Sachs in a recent report. “What we think is key, however, is that this recovery in commodity prices will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market for commodities.”\nCommodities, which have been out favour with investors for the best part of a decade, have enjoyed a strong run in recent months helped by demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer of natural resources. Soyabean prices are up more than 50 per cent over the past year, while copper has risen around 40 per cent. Oil, meanwhile, has rebounded to its highest since the early days of the coronavirus crisis. Brent, the international standard, hit $60 on Monday.\nThe rally has been exceptionally wide-ranging. A basket of 27 commodity futures — from coffee to nickel — tracked by specialist asset manager SummerHaven showed that all had positive returns over the six months to mid-January, including any gains from rolling over futures contracts.\n\n“This is really unusual. We’ve looked back 50 years and we’ve never seen this basket of commodities all go up at once,” said managing partner Kurt Nelson.\nStill, some investors say the market is not ready to embark on a new supercycle just yet. “What we certainly do have at the moment is a cyclical recovery driven by restocking in Europe, the US and China and boosted by supply disruptions,” said George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One. He said a broader shift is “two to three years away”.\nSummerHaven’s Nelson says a key catalyst for the rally has been a concern that the unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies enacted during the crisis will feed inflation, encouraging fund managers to protect themselves by buying commonly used hedges such as oil and metals.\nGiven that most commodities are priced in dollars, last year’s slide in the value of the greenback is also making them cheaper in other currencies, adding to demand.\nEliot Geller, a partner at CoreCommodity Management, thinks this macroeconomic backdrop for commodities is stronger than at any time in the previous decade.\n “Since 2010, we have seen equity markets rally, a strong US dollar, interest rates trend lower and inflation expectations decline,” he said. “Today, we have the threat of rising inflation, a weaker dollar and interest rates that are already zero or negative.”\nThose predicting a new supercycle — often described as prolonged period of surging demand that outstrips supply — point to global recovery programmes that put greater emphasis on job creation and environmental sustainability than on inflation control.\n“The past decade has seen monetary policy, which was more supportive for financial assets, while current fiscal policy should be more supportive for real assets like commodities,” said Don Casturo, the founder of specialist asset manager Quantix Commodities.\nCommodity bulls also see a supply gap coming. Goldman reckons the energy transition has the potential to create $1tn-$2tn a year in infrastructure investment over the next decade as the world reduces its reliance on carbon. That should drive up demand for a variety of raw materials, including copper, which will be need to wire the solar panels and electric cars of the new economy.\n\nYears of low prices, meanwhile, have forced producers to curb spending on new projects and expansions, holding back supply. This is not only true of the oil industry, where investment had been slashed, but also mining.\n“There needs to be a price blowout to bring on the new supply,” said James Johnstone, co-head of emerging and frontier markets at RWC Partners, a London-based investment manager that has invested in a number of copper producers.\nSome doubt that this upswing in commodity prices can match the last.\n“Historically a supercycle happens every 30 to 40 years and we are just out of one. So this would be an exception,” said Norbert Rücker, head of economics at Swiss private bank Julius Baer. “And if you look at what triggered the last supercycle it was Chinese urbanisation and the immense spend of it. The energy transition won’t happen as quickly.”\nBut others think the stage is set for a broad-based rally can well outlast the pandemic. “The set-up for commodities is really extraordinary. Not just for the next three to six months but for the next decade,” said SummerHaven’s Nelson.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381826878,"gmtCreate":1612954684194,"gmtModify":1703767403558,"author":{"id":"3574414701609267","authorId":"3574414701609267","name":"Dazity","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574414701609267","authorIdStr":"3574414701609267"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oof","listText":"Oof","text":"Oof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381826878","repostId":"1136063454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389224062,"gmtCreate":1612779936956,"gmtModify":1703764896669,"author":{"id":"3574414701609267","authorId":"3574414701609267","name":"Dazity","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574414701609267","authorIdStr":"3574414701609267"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389224062","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p>\n<p>Look who’s back.</p>\n<p>After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p>\n<p><b>The comeback</b></p>\n<p>It’s been a long time coming.</p>\n<p>The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p>\n<p>He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p>\n<p>A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p>\n<p>At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p>\n<p>Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p>\n<p>The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p>\n<p>That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p>\n<p>No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p>\n<p>But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p>\n<p><b>‘Structural change’</b></p>\n<p>Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p>\n<p>If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p>\n<p>After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p>\n<p>But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p>\n<p>While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p>\n<p>The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p>\n<p>“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p>\n<p>Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p>\n<p><b>Leveling the field</b></p>\n<p>Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p>\n<p>Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p>\n<p>Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p>\n<p>Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p>\n<p>On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p>\n<p>Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p>\n<p><b>Next leg?</b></p>\n<p>While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p>\n<p>Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p>\n<p>And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p>\n<p>Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p>\n<p>“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389222025,"gmtCreate":1612779749067,"gmtModify":1703764893729,"author":{"id":"3574414701609267","authorId":"3574414701609267","name":"Dazity","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574414701609267","authorIdStr":"3574414701609267"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389222025","repostId":"1134902557","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389226822,"gmtCreate":1612779718066,"gmtModify":1703764893212,"author":{"id":"3574414701609267","authorId":"3574414701609267","name":"Dazity","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574414701609267","authorIdStr":"3574414701609267"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389226822","repostId":"1134902557","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}