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Liionel

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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-10-19
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$should we take some profits or wait for longer
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-17
  Stonks!
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-09
  I like the stock
  These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>
  I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold
  These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-06
  Cmonnnnn diamond hands
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-03
  Hold! And here for coins.
  Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>
  Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but shor
  Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-02
  Here for coins hehe
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- LiionelLiionel
  ·2021-02-02
  Here for coins hehehehe
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>should we take some profits or wait for longer","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>should we take some profits or wait for longer","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$should we take some profits or wait for 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like the stock","listText":"I like the stock","text":"I like the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383600387","repostId":"1149038980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149038980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612864337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149038980?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149038980","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold","content":"<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149038980","content_text":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.\nFor those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):\n1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.\n2. Sell at the “zero point.”  Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.\n3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”\n4. Take the money and run:When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.\n5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.\n6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.\n7. Stop bragging about how much money you made: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves\n8. Use a time stop:Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).\n9. Sell half or all of the position:It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.\n10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.\n11. Trade small after you made or lost big:If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.\nYou don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.\n12. Don’t take on too much risk:Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.\nThe meme-stock pyramid scheme\nThose who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.\nMy advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380596958,"gmtCreate":1612547200274,"gmtModify":1703763583730,"author":{"id":"3574854132255610","authorId":"3574854132255610","name":"Liionel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a464a3be8fd43c16b52d559dc5306110","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574854132255610","authorIdStr":"3574854132255610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cmonnnnn diamond hands&nbsp;","listText":"Cmonnnnn diamond hands&nbsp;","text":"Cmonnnnn diamond hands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380596958","repostId":"1132260998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314124687,"gmtCreate":1612322438449,"gmtModify":1703760343614,"author":{"id":"3574854132255610","authorId":"3574854132255610","name":"Liionel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a464a3be8fd43c16b52d559dc5306110","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574854132255610","authorIdStr":"3574854132255610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold! And here for coins.&nbsp;","listText":"Hold! And here for coins.&nbsp;","text":"Hold! And here for coins.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314124687","repostId":"1172237562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172237562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612320389,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172237562?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-03 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172237562","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but shor","content":"<p>Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.</p><p><blockquote>GameStopGME、-60.00%和其他目标股票的卖空者最近受到了打击，但卖空可能有助于保持牛市的活力。</blockquote></p><p> Short-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.</p><p><blockquote>做空，根据学术研究，对美国股市随后12个月的回报有很强的预测力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前空头兴趣异常低。</blockquote></p><p> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.</p><p><blockquote>林根伯格是卖空者行为方面的领先专家。他在接受采访时观察到：“即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12月和1月的空头兴趣也接近历史低位。事实上，除了2018年12月，这是自2008年危机前以来空头兴趣的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote></p><p> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.</p><p><blockquote>警惕将空头兴趣低解读为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格表示，逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，总的来说，卖空者是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.</p><p><blockquote>请仔细注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于其潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这一调整后的比率甚至比未经调整的原始比率更加乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，该调整后比率显示出解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使当前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔500SPX指数可能会在12个月内上涨+1.39%，同时在此过程中大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One big caveat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一个大警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别看跌，但仍然选择不大幅卖空。当投资者情绪旺盛、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时，这种情况最常见。他说，在这种时候，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，他们中的许多人会退缩到观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.</p><p><blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站传奇的专栏中提到了这种被称为“套利极限”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫结束时，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推到了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>目前有些人认为我们正处于类似于20世纪90年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们不应该过分强调卖空者缺乏侵略性。如果没有这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来12个月是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-03 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.</p><p><blockquote>GameStopGME、-60.00%和其他目标股票的卖空者最近受到了打击，但卖空可能有助于保持牛市的活力。</blockquote></p><p> Short-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.</p><p><blockquote>做空，根据学术研究，对美国股市随后12个月的回报有很强的预测力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前空头兴趣异常低。</blockquote></p><p> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.</p><p><blockquote>林根伯格是卖空者行为方面的领先专家。他在接受采访时观察到：“即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12月和1月的空头兴趣也接近历史低位。事实上，除了2018年12月，这是自2008年危机前以来空头兴趣的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote></p><p> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.</p><p><blockquote>警惕将空头兴趣低解读为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格表示，逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，总的来说，卖空者是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.</p><p><blockquote>请仔细注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于其潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这一调整后的比率甚至比未经调整的原始比率更加乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，该调整后比率显示出解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使当前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔500SPX指数可能会在12个月内上涨+1.39%，同时在此过程中大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One big caveat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一个大警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别看跌，但仍然选择不大幅卖空。当投资者情绪旺盛、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时，这种情况最常见。他说，在这种时候，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，他们中的许多人会退缩到观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.</p><p><blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站传奇的专栏中提到了这种被称为“套利极限”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫结束时，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推到了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>目前有些人认为我们正处于类似于20世纪90年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们不应该过分强调卖空者缺乏侵略性。如果没有这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来12个月是看涨的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f274618dde80cee69492990094f7510","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172237562","content_text":"Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.\nShort-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.\nRinggenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.\nBe wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.\nNote carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.\nNote also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.\nOne big caveat\nRinggenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.\nI mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.\nThere are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315247559,"gmtCreate":1612259411271,"gmtModify":1703759414369,"author":{"id":"3574854132255610","authorId":"3574854132255610","name":"Liionel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a464a3be8fd43c16b52d559dc5306110","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574854132255610","authorIdStr":"3574854132255610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here for coins hehe&nbsp;","listText":"Here for coins hehe&nbsp;","text":"Here for coins hehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315247559","repostId":"2108781616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315695091,"gmtCreate":1612239318013,"gmtModify":1703759168908,"author":{"id":"3574854132255610","authorId":"3574854132255610","name":"Liionel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a464a3be8fd43c16b52d559dc5306110","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574854132255610","authorIdStr":"3574854132255610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here for coins hehehehe","listText":"Here for coins hehehehe","text":"Here for coins hehehehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315695091","repostId":"1183603122","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}