社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
Eskimo1989
IP属地：陕西
+关注
帖子 · 6
帖子 · 6
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
08-31 21:46
然后狠狠通胀？
特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗
据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。
特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗
看
54
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
08-15
请把问号改成叹号🤣
本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？
美国7月CPI、PPI及零售销售数据全面走软，叠加就业降温，市场对美联储9月加息概率从75%骤降至25%，推动全球股市连续三周上涨。然而，油价仍处高位，美债收益率曲线陡化，债市长端持续为通胀与财政赤字定价，两周后杰克逊霍尔会议将成关键风向标。
本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？
看
893
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
07-10
把问号改成叹号
五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？
美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。
五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？
看
651
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
05-06
这不就100了哈哈哈
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
看
695
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
2021-02-16
利好电车？
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
看
3,562
回复
评论
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
Eskimo1989
Eskimo1989
·
2021-02-14
所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
3,535
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574914618440647","uuid":"3574914618440647","gmtCreate":1611820594808,"gmtModify":1613355006050,"name":"Eskimo1989","pinyin":"eskimo1989","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":1},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.28","exceedPercentage":"60.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":1},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"陕西","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":602714097980328,"gmtCreate":1788183984712,"gmtModify":1788183986588,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"然后狠狠通胀？","listText":"然后狠狠通胀？","text":"然后狠狠通胀？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602714097980328","repostId":"1129121966","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129121966","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1788181920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129121966?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-31 21:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129121966","media":"CCTV 国际视讯","summary":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。</span><br/><span>当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be8a95e1c4b730405f139b7b658f434c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"382\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1721357159105","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-31 21:12 北京时间 <a href=https://weibo.com/u/1371701597><strong>CCTV 国际视讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7890b392eb05e9c52fa3cef1b0d5dd","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129121966","content_text":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"USO":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597009562883008,"gmtCreate":1786772450679,"gmtModify":1786772452562,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","listText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","text":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597009562883008","repostId":"2659127667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2659127667","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786770596,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659127667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-15 13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659127667","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国7月CPI、PPI及零售销售数据全面走软，叠加就业降温，市场对美联储9月加息概率从75%骤降至25%，推动全球股市连续三周上涨。然而，油价仍处高位，美债收益率曲线陡化，债市长端持续为通胀与财政赤字定价，两周后杰克逊霍尔会议将成关键风向标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-15 13:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","WAMA":"WisdomTree U.S. Adaptive Moving Average Fund","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","NEMD":"Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","EBUF":"Innovator Emerging Markets 10 Buffer ETF - Quarterly","UVIX":"2倍做多恐慌指数期货ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","MYCN":"SPDR SSGA My2034 Corporate Bond ETF","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779497","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659127667","content_text":"美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一\"暂停叙事\"发出挑战。9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。股市在欢呼\"美联储转向\"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：7月CPI环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；7月PPI环比持平，低于预期；7月零售销售环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。Evercore ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，\"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险\"。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值\"大概率已经过去\"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，\"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生\"。但鹰派声音并未沉默。毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。债市长端发出截然不同的信号本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易\"美联储即将停止加息\"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但\"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑\"。在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":2,"BOXX":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"SVXY":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"VIXY":2,".SPX":2,"NEMD":1.5,".DJI":2,"SPY":1.5,"CIVG":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"MYCN":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"VGIT":1.5,"EBUF":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"ESmain":2,"IEI":1.5,"MUB":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"YMmain":2,"SVIX":0.6,"BND":1.5,"VIXmain":2,"LIAJ":1.5,"VXX":2,"BIL":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,".IXIC":2,"UBT":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"VIX":2,"UUP":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"UVIX":0.6,"USHY":1.5,"NQmain":2,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"VOO":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584209367617952,"gmtCreate":1783660669555,"gmtModify":1783663135833,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把问号改成叹号","listText":"把问号改成叹号","text":"把问号改成叹号","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584209367617952","repostId":"2650901472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2650901472","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783660020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2650901472?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-10 13:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650901472","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-10 13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2077746001.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A2 SGD-H","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1564329628.SGD":"Blackrock Dynamic High Income A2 SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","TDIV":"第一信托纳斯达克科技股利指数基金","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","09086":"华夏纳指-U","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2097344357.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2764263203.CNY":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (CNYHDG) ACC","SG9999001077.SGD":"United International Growth Fund SGD","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1181866309.USD":"摩根大通环球策略总报酬基金A (acc)","LU2041044095.USD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 USD","03455":"景顺QQQ","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0095938881.EUR":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Macro Opportunities A (acc) EUR","LU1803068623.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE \"AH1\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999014906.USD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc USD","LU1340139317.AUD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Macro Opportunities A (acc) AUD-H","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1334329650.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Macro Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","BK4543":"AI","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0345768740.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2102340556.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - RISK PARITY FACTOR \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco","LU1645745479.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0347712357.USD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU1127390331.HKD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","LU1400636491.USD":"Allianz Europe Income and Growth Cl AMg DIS H2-USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999014880.SGD":"大华全球优质成长基金Acc SGD","LU0949170426.SGD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 SGD-H","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","LU0107464264.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL INNOVATION EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2361045086.USD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU1221951046.USD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU1221951129.SGD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0124676726.USD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1196500208.SGD":"NORDEA STABLE RETURN \"HB\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - December","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0823417653.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2491050154.USD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","TYLG":"GLOBAL X INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COVERED CALL & GROWTH ETF","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","LU1032955483.USD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE000YTNTUN2.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG)INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1202635105.USD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USDHDG) INC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2191332357.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU2463028550.USD":"AB SICAV I AMERICAN MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1564329115.USD":"Blackrock Dynamic High Income A6 USD","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","07261":"FL二华夏纳一百","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1564329461.SGD":"Blackrock Dynamic High Income A6 SGD-H","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0426417589.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","IXN":"iShares Trust S&P Global Informa","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1188199696.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income A Dis SGD","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU2095319765.USD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A USD","FSTA":"Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0545562505.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SNPE":"Xtrackers S&P 500 Scored & Screened ETF","LU2210150020.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD","LU2210149790.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD-H","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4612":"AI芯片","SG9999018865.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Dist SGD-H","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU0960925559.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income A Acc SGD","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0879622024.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income A Dis SGD-H","07522":"FI二华夏纳一百","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","07568":"FI二南方纳指","LU1633808545.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0823417737.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0950375773.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC A","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU1228905037.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","LU0784385170.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI ASSET INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHGD) INC","LU0323239441.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY CLIMATE CHANGE \"AC\" ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0784385840.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A2 USD","FTEC":"Fidelity MSCI Information Techno","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2506951875.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0871640123.AUD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INC \"A8\" (AUD HDG) INC","LU2506952097.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2506951958.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2764262908.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2298321311.HKD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU1043141396.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","09834":"安硕纳指一百—U","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1236620750.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (USD) INC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1043141123.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) INC 2","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","EFIV":"SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UGE":"PROSHARES ULTRA CONSUMER STAPLES","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0994945656.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","LU1989763005.USD":"东方汇理教育基金A2 Acc","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU1670756490.USD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0757359368.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0426412945.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2279689827.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income Sustainable A (mth) SGD-H","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","02834":"安硕纳指一百","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","NULC":"Nuveen ESG Large-Cap ETF","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","OGIG":"ALPS O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","CNEQ":"Alger Concentrated Equity ETF","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October","LU2083900584.USD":"HSBC GIF US INCOME FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0345774391.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","HK0000304805.HKD":"PICTET 战略收益基金 P类港元","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","HK0000304797.USD":"PICTET 战略收益基金 P类 美元","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","ROM":"ProShares Ultra Technology","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0342679015.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY UNCONSTRAINED \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU1582987597.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) INC","NJUL":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - July","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0138981039.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE MULTI ASSET INCOME \"A\" INC","NJAN":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - January","LU1697837992.HKD":"BGF DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000819398.USD":"BLACKROCK PREMIER SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME FUND A10 (USD)INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0302445910.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU0894486033.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC MF","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0894485498.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKD) ACC","GPIQ":"GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1 Acc SGD-H","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","03034":"南方纳指一百","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0187121727.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","HK0000532082.HKD":"ALLIANZ SELECTION INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1564329032.USD":"BGF DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4576":"AR","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","SPTE":"SP FUNDS S&P GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2275660780.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU0210528500.USD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","BK4577":"网络游戏","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0689626769.HKD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1400636657.SGD":"Allianz Europe Income and Growth Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0859254822.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2047632596.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2100268510.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","NAPR":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - April","LU3102509885.SGD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL INCOME \"A8P\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2413666426.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0072461881.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A2\" ACC","LU1228905540.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1861127337.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL MULTI ASSET SUSTAINABILITY BALANCED \"AMG\" (USD) INC","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1400636574.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0133085943.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US BLUE CHIP EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0784383803.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0174119429.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","RTH":"零售指数ETF-HOLDRs","LU2462591350.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU1121112475.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","03086":"华夏纳指","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2092937221.SGD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 SGD-H","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1235295455.SGD":"Fidelity Global Multi Asset Growth & Income A-ACC-SGD","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPYB":"Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2637965513.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A10\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU0323240290.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY CLIMATE CHANGE \"AD\" INC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2092937148.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 SGD-H","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776621","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2650901472","content_text":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量\"真实服务量\"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，变更的选择方式\"看起来是为了降低通胀\"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的\"统一战线\"，计划分三步推进。第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，\"基本是1999年的镜像\"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。沃什表示，美国经济\"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有\"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"07266":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"09834":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"03455":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"07568":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"FSTA":0.6,"07261":0.6,"ROM":0.6,".SPX":2,"SPYU":0.6,"03034":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"07522":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NDX":2,"02834":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"03086":0.6,".DJI":2,"FTEC":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,".IXIC":2,"TQQQ":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"XLP":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPYH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561297443738264,"gmtCreate":1778067205849,"gmtModify":1778072257248,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","listText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","text":"这不就100了哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561297443738264","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385058969,"gmtCreate":1613489958551,"gmtModify":1613489958551,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好电车？","listText":"利好电车？","text":"利好电车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385058969","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}