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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-12-13
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Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>
Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal furth
Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-12-08
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Ivanhojh
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2021-12-07
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Ivanhojh
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2021-12-05
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-12-01
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Direct Listings Jump. Why This Path to Going Public Is Getting Noticed.<blockquote>直接列表跳转。为什么这条上市之路受到关注。</blockquote>
Direct listings have jumped this year, but are still in the single digits because that path to the p
Direct Listings Jump. Why This Path to Going Public Is Getting Noticed.<blockquote>直接列表跳转。为什么这条上市之路受到关注。</blockquote>
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-11-30
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Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron<blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官表示疫苗对奥密克戎的效果可能较差</blockquote>
SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be a
Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron<blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官表示疫苗对奥密克戎的效果可能较差</blockquote>
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-11-29
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November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>
As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor
November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-11-23
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Tesla Cybertruck reservation backlog reaches $80 billion in value based on latest tally<blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉 Cybertruck 预订积压价值达到 800 亿美元</blockquote>
Based on the latest tally, Tesla has a backlog of over 1.2 million Cybertruck reservations worth ove
Tesla Cybertruck reservation backlog reaches $80 billion in value based on latest tally<blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉 Cybertruck 预订积压价值达到 800 亿美元</blockquote>
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-11-15
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Ivanhojh
Ivanhojh
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2021-11-14
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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604886191","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期调整可能尚未结束。</li><li>尽管存在短期调整潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储的宽松货币立场可能比许多人预期的更早面临严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对股市熊市有着完美的记录。过去 170 年的每一次 NBER 衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期的后期阶段并不意味着股票处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展良好。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。其他历来可靠的领先指标尚未预示着经济衰退即将到来。在上一份报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。最常见的情况是，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市达到峰值。同样，收益率曲线尚未出现衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股市从 12 月初的最新高点回调了 5%-10%。正如我们 11 月中旬在 Seeking Alpha 上发表的文章所解释的那样，这种下降并不奇怪，因为市场正在火爆。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现 5%-10% 的调整。尽管如此，修正可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期阶段可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前的环境可能对央行来说极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年高出20%以上。这是自 70 年代以来该指数的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个记录两位数通货膨胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。不仅商品因供应短缺而变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是一个肇事逃逸的事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从 11 月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500是12月6日低点的延伸领先对角线。这是短期调整可能尚未结束的信号。该模式可能会转变为朝向 4250-4390 的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据表明，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R 将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一站。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变得糟糕之前提供进一步的暗示。底线是，尽管短期有进一步修正的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li> <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li> <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期调整可能尚未结束。</li><li>尽管存在短期调整潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储的宽松货币立场可能比许多人预期的更早面临严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对股市熊市有着完美的记录。过去 170 年的每一次 NBER 衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期的后期阶段并不意味着股票处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展良好。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。其他历来可靠的领先指标尚未预示着经济衰退即将到来。在上一份报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。最常见的情况是，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市达到峰值。同样，收益率曲线尚未出现衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股市从 12 月初的最新高点回调了 5%-10%。正如我们 11 月中旬在 Seeking Alpha 上发表的文章所解释的那样，这种下降并不奇怪，因为市场正在火爆。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现 5%-10% 的调整。尽管如此，修正可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期阶段可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前的环境可能对央行来说极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲采购价格比去年高出20%以上。这是自 70 年代以来该指数的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个记录两位数通货膨胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。不仅商品因供应短缺而变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是一个肇事逃逸的事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从 11 月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500是12月6日低点的延伸领先对角线。这是短期调整可能尚未结束的信号。该模式可能会转变为朝向 4250-4390 的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据表明，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R 将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一站。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变得糟糕之前提供进一步的暗示。底线是，尽管短期有进一步修正的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602043578,"gmtCreate":1638947471300,"gmtModify":1638947471596,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602043578","repostId":"2189719656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606161047,"gmtCreate":1638843660945,"gmtModify":1638843661341,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606161047","repostId":"2189686612","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608806123,"gmtCreate":1638673844331,"gmtModify":1638673844520,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608806123","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603962544,"gmtCreate":1638353829251,"gmtModify":1638353829725,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603962544","repostId":"1163333225","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163333225","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638353038,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163333225?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Direct Listings Jump. Why This Path to Going Public Is Getting Noticed.<blockquote>直接列表跳转。为什么这条上市之路受到关注。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163333225","media":"Barrons","summary":"Direct listings have jumped this year, but are still in the single digits because that path to the p","content":"<p>Direct listings have jumped this year, but are still in the single digits because that path to the public markets is a narrow one—so narrow that most companies will keep choosing IPOs or SPAC mergers, experts tell <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>专家表示，今年直接上市数量激增，但仍处于个位数，因为通往公开市场的道路非常狭窄——如此狭窄，以至于大多数公司将继续选择 IPO 或 SPAC 合并<i>巴伦。</i></blockquote></p><p> So far this year, 942 companies have gone public—raising $299 billion, numbers from Dealogic show. The totals for initial public offerings and special-purpose acquisition company mergers are 383 and 559, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Dealogic 的数据显示，今年到目前为止，已有 942 家公司上市，筹集了 2990 亿美元。首次公开募股和特殊目的收购公司合并的总数分别为383起和559起。</blockquote></p><p> By comparison, only seven firms have used a direct listing—raising not one dime, simply listing their stocks on exchanges. Still, the seven is more than half of the 13 companies to use a direct listing since 2018.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，只有七家公司使用了直接上市——不筹集一分钱，只是在交易所上市。尽管如此，这七家公司仍占 2018 年以来使用直接上市的 13 家公司的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p> “We may see more late-stage companies seeking to do direct listings,” said Eddie Molloy, co-head of equity capital markets for the Americas at Morgan Stanley. “They will not replace IPOs, but instead provide companies another avenue to the public markets.”</p><p><blockquote>“摩根士丹利美洲股权资本市场联席主管埃迪-莫洛伊（Eddie Molloy）说：”我们可能会看到更多后期公司寻求直接上市。“它们不会取代首次公开募股，而是为公司提供了另一条进入公开市场的途径”。</blockquote></p><p> IPO expert Jay Ritter also expects the number of direct listings to increase—as long as there are no blowups like an accounting scandal that could taint the method.</p><p><blockquote>IPO专家杰伊·里特（Jay Ritter）也预计，只要没有会计丑闻等可能玷污这种方法的爆炸事件，直接上市的数量就会增加。</blockquote></p><p> “More and more companies will use direct listings to avoid selling underpriced shares in a traditional IPO or to avoid the dilution due to sponsor shares that come with a SPAC merger,” said Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor who studies IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>“研究 IPO 的佛罗里达大学金融学教授里特说：”越来越多的公司将采用直接上市的方式，以避免在传统 IPO 中出售低价股票，或避免 SPAC 合并带来的保荐人股份被稀释。</blockquote></p><p> The first direct listing came nearly four years ago, on April 3, 2018, when Spotify (SPOT) opened for trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The music-streaming service didn’t raise any money with its offering, but ended its first day as a public company with a nearly $27 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>首次直接上市发生在近四年前，即 2018 年 4 月 3 日，当时 Spotify (SPOT) 在纽约证券交易所开市交易。这家音乐流媒体服务没有通过发行筹集到任何资金，但在上市第一天就以近 270 亿美元的估值结束了上市。</blockquote></p><p> In the next two years, five companies direct listed: Watford Holdings, the reinsurance firm; the messaging app Slack Technologies; Palantir Technologies (PLTR), the data analytics company; Asana (ASAN), which offers project management software; and Thryv Holdings (THRY), a provider of marketing automation software for small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的两年里，有五家公司直接上市：再保险公司沃特福德控股公司；消息应用Slack Technologies；数据分析公司 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)；提供项目管理软件的Asana（ASAN）；以及小型企业营销自动化软件提供商 Thryv Holdings (THRY)。</blockquote></p><p> This year—and with a month still to go—the total stands at seven: Roblox (RBLX), the gaming platform; cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN);Squarespace (SQSP), the website design and hosting firm; the money transfer firm Wise; ZipRecruiter (ZIP), the employment marketplace; Amplitude (AMPL), the product analytics company; and eyewear start-up Warby Parker (WRBY).</p><p><blockquote>今年——还有一个月的时间——总数为七个：Roblox (RBLX)，游戏平台；加密货币交易所比特币基地（COIN）；Squarespace (SQSP)，网站设计和托管公司；汇款公司明智；ZipRecruiter（ZIP），就业市场；Amplitude (AMPL)，产品分析公司；以及眼镜初创公司 Warby Parker (WRBY)。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest public offerings is expected to come next year from Stripe, the online payment processor, which is considering a direct listing, Bloomberg reported. Stripe didn’t return requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，在线支付处理商 Stripe 预计将于明年进行最大规模的公开募股之一，该公司正在考虑直接上市。Stripe 没有回复置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 13 direct listings since 2018, eight picked the NYSE and four settled on the Nasdaq. Wise listed its shares on the London Stock Exchange in July.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年以来的13家直接上市中，有8家选择了纽约证券交易所，4家选择了纳斯达克。Wise 于 7 月在伦敦证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The mechanics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>力学</b></blockquote></p><p> The appeal of a direct listing might not be obvious to the retail investor. After all, like an IPO or a SPAC merger, a direct listing requires the same paperwork—essentially a prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission—and roughly the same amount of time, 12 to 18 months, according to David Ethridge, co-lead of PwC’s IPO Services. The 12 to 18 months includes the time that companies need to prepare for life as a public entities, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户投资者来说，直接上市的吸引力可能并不明显。普华永道首次公开募股服务联席主管大卫-埃斯里奇（David Ethridge）表示，毕竟，与首次公开募股或特殊目的收购公司合并一样，直接上市需要相同的文书工作--本质上是向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书--以及大致相同的时间，即 12 到 18 个月。Ethridge说，12到18个月包括公司作为公共实体需要为生活做准备的时间。</blockquote></p><p> But there are real differences: how money is raised and where it goes, and the role played by investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>但确实存在差异：资金如何筹集、流向何处，以及投资银行所扮演的角色。</blockquote></p><p> First, the money. Companies that opt for an IPO typically need fresh capital and use the offering to sell stock to investors. In a direct listing, shareholders—most often founders, investors who were in on the ground floor, and employees—sell their stock and they get the money, not the company.</p><p><blockquote>首先，钱。选择 IPO 的公司通常需要新的资本，并利用此次发行向投资者出售股票。在直接上市中，股东——通常是创始人、一楼的投资者和员工——出售他们的股票，他们得到钱，而不是公司。</blockquote></p><p> Two experts—Magdalena Heinrich, Bank of America’s co-head of U.S. technology equity capital markets and venture capitalist Eric Liaw—point out that companies that don’t immediately need capital are better suited for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>两位专家--美国银行美国技术股权资本市场联席主管玛格达莱娜-海因里希（Magdalena Heinrich）和风险投资家埃里克-廖（Eric Liaw）--指出，不立即需要资金的公司更适合直接上市。</blockquote></p><p> “The key criteria for [companies] choosing a direct listing is whether their balance sheet is sufficiently strong that they don’t need to raise money in the offering,” said Liaw, a general partner at IVP, a venture-capital firm that has invested in over 400 companies, including 125 publicly traded entities.</p><p><blockquote>“IVP 是一家风险投资公司，已投资了 400 多家公司，其中包括 125 家上市公司，IVP 的普通合伙人 Liaw 说：”[公司]选择直接上市的关键标准是其资产负债表是否足够强劲，以至于不需要在发行中筹集资金。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the investment banks. In an IPO, banks underwrite the sale of shares. They help write the prospectus, set the price for the offering, sell the stock to investors through their network the night before the company lists, help set the roadshow, and give support once the stock begins trading.</p><p><blockquote>第二，投资银行。在首次公开募股中，银行承销股票的出售。他们帮助撰写招股说明书，设定发行价格，在公司上市前一天晚上通过他们的网络向投资者出售股票，帮助安排路演，并在股票开始交易后提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, underwriting fees are the single biggest direct cost in an IPO— an average of 5% to 7% of gross IPO proceeds, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>Ethridge 表示，因此，承销费是 IPO 中最大的直接成本，平均占 IPO 总收益的 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Several banks typically work on a big IPO and split the fees. For example, Airbnb (ABNB), the home sharing service, raised $3.5 billion last December with its public offering. Three dozen banks, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs,worked on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>几家银行通常会进行大型 IPO 并分摊费用。例如，家庭共享服务公司爱彼迎（ABNB）去年12月通过公开募股筹集了35亿美元。以摩根士丹利和高盛为首的三十多家银行参与了这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a direct listing, banks act as financial advisors. Still, they help prepare the company’s registration statement, and assist with positioning the business, according to a guide on direct listings from the law firm Gibson Dunn. They also act as market makers and guide the price, said an investment banker who has worked on several deals.</p><p><blockquote>在直接上市中，银行充当财务顾问。尽管如此，根据吉布森-邓恩（Gibson Dunn）律师事务所的直接上市指南，他们还是会帮助准备公司的注册声明，并协助企业定位。一位参与过几笔交易的投资银行家表示，他们还充当做市商并引导价格。</blockquote></p><p> Their fees are “materially” less, but just how much less is hard to determine with only a dozen direct listings, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>Ethridge 说，他们的费用 “大幅 ”降低，但究竟降低了多少，只有十几个直接挂牌很难确定。</blockquote></p><p> “It wouldn’t surprise me if the total fees paid of gross spread is 50% of what might otherwise be paid [in IPOs],” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果毛利差支付的总费用是[首次公开募股]可能支付的费用的 50%，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Oddly enough, though, banks generally make as much with a direct listing because fewer work on a deal so the split is bigger, said Richard Truesdell, co-head of global capital markets at Davis Polk, who worked on the Spotify and Watford direct listings.</p><p><blockquote>Davis Polk 全球资本市场联席主管理查德·特鲁斯德尔 (Richard Truesdell) 曾参与 Spotify 和 Watford 的直接上市工作，但奇怪的是，银行通常通过直接上市赚取同样多的收入，因为交易的工作量较少，因此分割更大。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase is a case in point. The crypto exchange ended its first day as a public company in March with a near $86 billion market cap. Its financial advisors totaled four, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.</p><p><blockquote>比特币基地就是一个很好的例子。这家加密货币交易所在 3 月份结束了作为上市公司的第一天，市值接近 860 亿美元。其财务顾问共有四家，包括高盛和摩根大通。</blockquote></p><p> “Even though the total comp is substantially less, it’s not less per bank,” Truesdell said</p><p><blockquote>“Truesdell 说：”尽管总薪酬大幅减少，但每家银行的薪酬并没有减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> The real winners in a direct listing could very well be investors—both institutions and regular people.</p><p><blockquote>直接上市的真正赢家很可能是投资者——包括机构和普通人。</blockquote></p><p> Institutions like direct listings because many don’t have a lockup—the 90 to 180 days that investors in an IPO have to wait before they can sell their shares. In a direct listing, investors can unload their shares as soon the company begins trading.</p><p><blockquote>机构喜欢直接上市，因为许多机构都没有禁售期--首次公开募股的投资者必须等待 90 到 180 天才能出售股票。在直接上市中，投资者可以在公司开始交易后立即抛售股票。</blockquote></p><p> No lockup makes it easier for the likes of Wellington Management, which manages $1.4 trillion in assets, to build positions “right out of the shoot,” said Michael Carmen, a senior managing director at Wellington, which has helped take more than 2,000 companies public since 2010—four through direct listings.</p><p><blockquote>惠灵顿公司（Wellington Management）高级董事总经理迈克尔-卡门（Michael Carmen）说，管理着 1.4 万亿美元资产的惠灵顿管理公司（Wellington Management）等公司更容易 “一开始 ”就建仓。</blockquote></p><p> More important, direct listings can be better for regular people. In an IPO, institutional investors will buy shares of a company at the offer price the night before the debut. Then, the next day, the stock will jump in price as all kinds of investors try to get shares.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，直接挂牌对普通人来说可能更好。在首次公开募股中，机构投资者将在首次公开募股前一天晚上以发行价购买公司股票。然后，第二天，随着各种投资者试图获得股票，股票价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “Retail drives the pop that first day,” Truesdell, of Davis Polk, told <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>“Davis Polk 的 Truesdell 说：”零售业推动了第一天的流行。<i>巴伦。</i></blockquote></p><p> The upshot: The stock for a traditional IPO can often become too expensive for the regular people during its first day of trading. Consider Airbnb again. Shares more than doubled from the $68 IPO price, closing at $144.71.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：传统 IPO 的股票在交易的第一天对普通人来说往往过于昂贵。再考虑一下爱彼迎。股价较 68 美元的 IPO 价格上涨了一倍多，收于 144.71 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “With a direct listing, [retail investors] have all the same rights as other institutions out there,” said Wellington’s Carmen.</p><p><blockquote>“惠灵顿的卡门说：”通过直接上市，[散户投资者]拥有与其他机构相同的权利。</blockquote></p><p> Avoiding the first-day pop is one reason why Amplitude chose a direct listing, said Spenser Skates, co-founder and CEO. Amplitude rose a mere 9.6% from its opening price.</p><p><blockquote>联合创始人兼首席执行官 Spenser Skates 表示，避免首日流行是 Amplitude 选择直接上市的原因之一。Amplitude 较开盘价仅上涨 9.6%。</blockquote></p><p> When a company’s stock rises 30% or 50% or 100% in its debut, the IPO was mispriced, Skates said. Companies are “giving up a huge amount of value for no reason other than a good press headline,” Skates said.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 说，当一家公司的股价在首次公开募股时上涨了 30%、50% 或 100%，那么 IPO 的定价就是错误的。斯卡茨说，公司 “放弃了大量的价值，没有其他原因，只是为了一个好的媒体头条”。</blockquote></p><p> For companies, analyst coverage is important. Analysts have clients. They rate stocks. They give outlooks. And direct listings don’t typically generate the same level of analyst coverage as IPOs, which have a roadshow.</p><p><blockquote>对于公司来说，分析师的报道很重要。分析师有客户。他们给股票评级。他们给出了前景。直接上市通常不会像有路演的 IPO 那样获得相同水平的分析师报道。</blockquote></p><p> Most of the companies that have direct listed replaced the roadshow with an “analyst day,” where investors, including regular people, learn about the business. Coinbase, for example, hosted a Reddit: “Ask Us Anything.”</p><p><blockquote>大多数直接上市的公司都用 “分析师日 ”取代了路演，让包括普通人在内的投资者了解业务。例如，Coinbase 主办了一个 Reddit： “有任何问题都可以问我们”。</blockquote></p><p> But the lack of analyst coverage isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. “If you are Spotify you know you’ll get coverage so you don’t worry about it. People won’t ignore a $30 billion market cap company,” Wellington’s Carmen said.</p><p><blockquote>但缺乏分析师报道并不一定会破坏交易。“如果你是 Spotify，你就知道你会得到保险，所以你不用担心。人们不会忽视一家市值 300 亿美元的公司，”惠灵顿的卡门说。</blockquote></p><p> Skates didn’t seem fazed that Amplitude had to reach out to the analysts—and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 似乎并不担心 Amplitude 不得不联系分析师和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a little more work on part of companies to make sure all of the information is out there,” he said. “You still get the analyst coverage.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”公司还需要做更多的工作，以确保所有信息都在那里。“你仍然可以得到分析师的报道。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional IPOs, Skates said, get a “little more investor interest but that’s because they’re doing a massive multi-hundred [million] giveaway.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 说，传统的 IPO 会得到 “更多投资者的兴趣，但那是因为它们要提供数亿美元的巨额赠品。</blockquote></p><p> “As a CEO, you don’t want investors looking for a quick flip on stock. You really want those committed to the long term.”</p><p><blockquote>“作为首席执行官，你不希望投资者寻求快速炒股。你真正想要的是那些致力于长远发展的投资者”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Direct Listings Jump. Why This Path to Going Public Is Getting Noticed.<blockquote>直接列表跳转。为什么这条上市之路受到关注。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDirect Listings Jump. Why This Path to Going Public Is Getting Noticed.<blockquote>直接列表跳转。为什么这条上市之路受到关注。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Direct listings have jumped this year, but are still in the single digits because that path to the public markets is a narrow one—so narrow that most companies will keep choosing IPOs or SPAC mergers, experts tell <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>专家表示，今年直接上市数量激增，但仍处于个位数，因为通往公开市场的道路非常狭窄——如此狭窄，以至于大多数公司将继续选择 IPO 或 SPAC 合并<i>巴伦。</i></blockquote></p><p> So far this year, 942 companies have gone public—raising $299 billion, numbers from Dealogic show. The totals for initial public offerings and special-purpose acquisition company mergers are 383 and 559, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Dealogic 的数据显示，今年到目前为止，已有 942 家公司上市，筹集了 2990 亿美元。首次公开募股和特殊目的收购公司合并的总数分别为383起和559起。</blockquote></p><p> By comparison, only seven firms have used a direct listing—raising not one dime, simply listing their stocks on exchanges. Still, the seven is more than half of the 13 companies to use a direct listing since 2018.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，只有七家公司使用了直接上市——不筹集一分钱，只是在交易所上市。尽管如此，这七家公司仍占 2018 年以来使用直接上市的 13 家公司的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p> “We may see more late-stage companies seeking to do direct listings,” said Eddie Molloy, co-head of equity capital markets for the Americas at Morgan Stanley. “They will not replace IPOs, but instead provide companies another avenue to the public markets.”</p><p><blockquote>“摩根士丹利美洲股权资本市场联席主管埃迪-莫洛伊（Eddie Molloy）说：”我们可能会看到更多后期公司寻求直接上市。“它们不会取代首次公开募股，而是为公司提供了另一条进入公开市场的途径”。</blockquote></p><p> IPO expert Jay Ritter also expects the number of direct listings to increase—as long as there are no blowups like an accounting scandal that could taint the method.</p><p><blockquote>IPO专家杰伊·里特（Jay Ritter）也预计，只要没有会计丑闻等可能玷污这种方法的爆炸事件，直接上市的数量就会增加。</blockquote></p><p> “More and more companies will use direct listings to avoid selling underpriced shares in a traditional IPO or to avoid the dilution due to sponsor shares that come with a SPAC merger,” said Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor who studies IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>“研究 IPO 的佛罗里达大学金融学教授里特说：”越来越多的公司将采用直接上市的方式，以避免在传统 IPO 中出售低价股票，或避免 SPAC 合并带来的保荐人股份被稀释。</blockquote></p><p> The first direct listing came nearly four years ago, on April 3, 2018, when Spotify (SPOT) opened for trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The music-streaming service didn’t raise any money with its offering, but ended its first day as a public company with a nearly $27 billion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>首次直接上市发生在近四年前，即 2018 年 4 月 3 日，当时 Spotify (SPOT) 在纽约证券交易所开市交易。这家音乐流媒体服务没有通过发行筹集到任何资金，但在上市第一天就以近 270 亿美元的估值结束了上市。</blockquote></p><p> In the next two years, five companies direct listed: Watford Holdings, the reinsurance firm; the messaging app Slack Technologies; Palantir Technologies (PLTR), the data analytics company; Asana (ASAN), which offers project management software; and Thryv Holdings (THRY), a provider of marketing automation software for small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的两年里，有五家公司直接上市：再保险公司沃特福德控股公司；消息应用Slack Technologies；数据分析公司 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)；提供项目管理软件的Asana（ASAN）；以及小型企业营销自动化软件提供商 Thryv Holdings (THRY)。</blockquote></p><p> This year—and with a month still to go—the total stands at seven: Roblox (RBLX), the gaming platform; cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN);Squarespace (SQSP), the website design and hosting firm; the money transfer firm Wise; ZipRecruiter (ZIP), the employment marketplace; Amplitude (AMPL), the product analytics company; and eyewear start-up Warby Parker (WRBY).</p><p><blockquote>今年——还有一个月的时间——总数为七个：Roblox (RBLX)，游戏平台；加密货币交易所比特币基地（COIN）；Squarespace (SQSP)，网站设计和托管公司；汇款公司明智；ZipRecruiter（ZIP），就业市场；Amplitude (AMPL)，产品分析公司；以及眼镜初创公司 Warby Parker (WRBY)。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest public offerings is expected to come next year from Stripe, the online payment processor, which is considering a direct listing, Bloomberg reported. Stripe didn’t return requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，在线支付处理商 Stripe 预计将于明年进行最大规模的公开募股之一，该公司正在考虑直接上市。Stripe 没有回复置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 13 direct listings since 2018, eight picked the NYSE and four settled on the Nasdaq. Wise listed its shares on the London Stock Exchange in July.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年以来的13家直接上市中，有8家选择了纽约证券交易所，4家选择了纳斯达克。Wise 于 7 月在伦敦证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The mechanics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>力学</b></blockquote></p><p> The appeal of a direct listing might not be obvious to the retail investor. After all, like an IPO or a SPAC merger, a direct listing requires the same paperwork—essentially a prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission—and roughly the same amount of time, 12 to 18 months, according to David Ethridge, co-lead of PwC’s IPO Services. The 12 to 18 months includes the time that companies need to prepare for life as a public entities, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户投资者来说，直接上市的吸引力可能并不明显。普华永道首次公开募股服务联席主管大卫-埃斯里奇（David Ethridge）表示，毕竟，与首次公开募股或特殊目的收购公司合并一样，直接上市需要相同的文书工作--本质上是向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书--以及大致相同的时间，即 12 到 18 个月。Ethridge说，12到18个月包括公司作为公共实体需要为生活做准备的时间。</blockquote></p><p> But there are real differences: how money is raised and where it goes, and the role played by investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>但确实存在差异：资金如何筹集、流向何处，以及投资银行所扮演的角色。</blockquote></p><p> First, the money. Companies that opt for an IPO typically need fresh capital and use the offering to sell stock to investors. In a direct listing, shareholders—most often founders, investors who were in on the ground floor, and employees—sell their stock and they get the money, not the company.</p><p><blockquote>首先，钱。选择 IPO 的公司通常需要新的资本，并利用此次发行向投资者出售股票。在直接上市中，股东——通常是创始人、一楼的投资者和员工——出售他们的股票，他们得到钱，而不是公司。</blockquote></p><p> Two experts—Magdalena Heinrich, Bank of America’s co-head of U.S. technology equity capital markets and venture capitalist Eric Liaw—point out that companies that don’t immediately need capital are better suited for a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote>两位专家--美国银行美国技术股权资本市场联席主管玛格达莱娜-海因里希（Magdalena Heinrich）和风险投资家埃里克-廖（Eric Liaw）--指出，不立即需要资金的公司更适合直接上市。</blockquote></p><p> “The key criteria for [companies] choosing a direct listing is whether their balance sheet is sufficiently strong that they don’t need to raise money in the offering,” said Liaw, a general partner at IVP, a venture-capital firm that has invested in over 400 companies, including 125 publicly traded entities.</p><p><blockquote>“IVP 是一家风险投资公司，已投资了 400 多家公司，其中包括 125 家上市公司，IVP 的普通合伙人 Liaw 说：”[公司]选择直接上市的关键标准是其资产负债表是否足够强劲，以至于不需要在发行中筹集资金。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the investment banks. In an IPO, banks underwrite the sale of shares. They help write the prospectus, set the price for the offering, sell the stock to investors through their network the night before the company lists, help set the roadshow, and give support once the stock begins trading.</p><p><blockquote>第二，投资银行。在首次公开募股中，银行承销股票的出售。他们帮助撰写招股说明书，设定发行价格，在公司上市前一天晚上通过他们的网络向投资者出售股票，帮助安排路演，并在股票开始交易后提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, underwriting fees are the single biggest direct cost in an IPO— an average of 5% to 7% of gross IPO proceeds, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>Ethridge 表示，因此，承销费是 IPO 中最大的直接成本，平均占 IPO 总收益的 5% 至 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Several banks typically work on a big IPO and split the fees. For example, Airbnb (ABNB), the home sharing service, raised $3.5 billion last December with its public offering. Three dozen banks, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs,worked on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>几家银行通常会进行大型 IPO 并分摊费用。例如，家庭共享服务公司爱彼迎（ABNB）去年12月通过公开募股筹集了35亿美元。以摩根士丹利和高盛为首的三十多家银行参与了这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a direct listing, banks act as financial advisors. Still, they help prepare the company’s registration statement, and assist with positioning the business, according to a guide on direct listings from the law firm Gibson Dunn. They also act as market makers and guide the price, said an investment banker who has worked on several deals.</p><p><blockquote>在直接上市中，银行充当财务顾问。尽管如此，根据吉布森-邓恩（Gibson Dunn）律师事务所的直接上市指南，他们还是会帮助准备公司的注册声明，并协助企业定位。一位参与过几笔交易的投资银行家表示，他们还充当做市商并引导价格。</blockquote></p><p> Their fees are “materially” less, but just how much less is hard to determine with only a dozen direct listings, Ethridge said.</p><p><blockquote>Ethridge 说，他们的费用 “大幅 ”降低，但究竟降低了多少，只有十几个直接挂牌很难确定。</blockquote></p><p> “It wouldn’t surprise me if the total fees paid of gross spread is 50% of what might otherwise be paid [in IPOs],” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果毛利差支付的总费用是[首次公开募股]可能支付的费用的 50%，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> Oddly enough, though, banks generally make as much with a direct listing because fewer work on a deal so the split is bigger, said Richard Truesdell, co-head of global capital markets at Davis Polk, who worked on the Spotify and Watford direct listings.</p><p><blockquote>Davis Polk 全球资本市场联席主管理查德·特鲁斯德尔 (Richard Truesdell) 曾参与 Spotify 和 Watford 的直接上市工作，但奇怪的是，银行通常通过直接上市赚取同样多的收入，因为交易的工作量较少，因此分割更大。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase is a case in point. The crypto exchange ended its first day as a public company in March with a near $86 billion market cap. Its financial advisors totaled four, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.</p><p><blockquote>比特币基地就是一个很好的例子。这家加密货币交易所在 3 月份结束了作为上市公司的第一天，市值接近 860 亿美元。其财务顾问共有四家，包括高盛和摩根大通。</blockquote></p><p> “Even though the total comp is substantially less, it’s not less per bank,” Truesdell said</p><p><blockquote>“Truesdell 说：”尽管总薪酬大幅减少，但每家银行的薪酬并没有减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> The real winners in a direct listing could very well be investors—both institutions and regular people.</p><p><blockquote>直接上市的真正赢家很可能是投资者——包括机构和普通人。</blockquote></p><p> Institutions like direct listings because many don’t have a lockup—the 90 to 180 days that investors in an IPO have to wait before they can sell their shares. In a direct listing, investors can unload their shares as soon the company begins trading.</p><p><blockquote>机构喜欢直接上市，因为许多机构都没有禁售期--首次公开募股的投资者必须等待 90 到 180 天才能出售股票。在直接上市中，投资者可以在公司开始交易后立即抛售股票。</blockquote></p><p> No lockup makes it easier for the likes of Wellington Management, which manages $1.4 trillion in assets, to build positions “right out of the shoot,” said Michael Carmen, a senior managing director at Wellington, which has helped take more than 2,000 companies public since 2010—four through direct listings.</p><p><blockquote>惠灵顿公司（Wellington Management）高级董事总经理迈克尔-卡门（Michael Carmen）说，管理着 1.4 万亿美元资产的惠灵顿管理公司（Wellington Management）等公司更容易 “一开始 ”就建仓。</blockquote></p><p> More important, direct listings can be better for regular people. In an IPO, institutional investors will buy shares of a company at the offer price the night before the debut. Then, the next day, the stock will jump in price as all kinds of investors try to get shares.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，直接挂牌对普通人来说可能更好。在首次公开募股中，机构投资者将在首次公开募股前一天晚上以发行价购买公司股票。然后，第二天，随着各种投资者试图获得股票，股票价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “Retail drives the pop that first day,” Truesdell, of Davis Polk, told <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>“Davis Polk 的 Truesdell 说：”零售业推动了第一天的流行。<i>巴伦。</i></blockquote></p><p> The upshot: The stock for a traditional IPO can often become too expensive for the regular people during its first day of trading. Consider Airbnb again. Shares more than doubled from the $68 IPO price, closing at $144.71.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：传统 IPO 的股票在交易的第一天对普通人来说往往过于昂贵。再考虑一下爱彼迎。股价较 68 美元的 IPO 价格上涨了一倍多，收于 144.71 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “With a direct listing, [retail investors] have all the same rights as other institutions out there,” said Wellington’s Carmen.</p><p><blockquote>“惠灵顿的卡门说：”通过直接上市，[散户投资者]拥有与其他机构相同的权利。</blockquote></p><p> Avoiding the first-day pop is one reason why Amplitude chose a direct listing, said Spenser Skates, co-founder and CEO. Amplitude rose a mere 9.6% from its opening price.</p><p><blockquote>联合创始人兼首席执行官 Spenser Skates 表示，避免首日流行是 Amplitude 选择直接上市的原因之一。Amplitude 较开盘价仅上涨 9.6%。</blockquote></p><p> When a company’s stock rises 30% or 50% or 100% in its debut, the IPO was mispriced, Skates said. Companies are “giving up a huge amount of value for no reason other than a good press headline,” Skates said.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 说，当一家公司的股价在首次公开募股时上涨了 30%、50% 或 100%，那么 IPO 的定价就是错误的。斯卡茨说，公司 “放弃了大量的价值，没有其他原因，只是为了一个好的媒体头条”。</blockquote></p><p> For companies, analyst coverage is important. Analysts have clients. They rate stocks. They give outlooks. And direct listings don’t typically generate the same level of analyst coverage as IPOs, which have a roadshow.</p><p><blockquote>对于公司来说，分析师的报道很重要。分析师有客户。他们给股票评级。他们给出了前景。直接上市通常不会像有路演的 IPO 那样获得相同水平的分析师报道。</blockquote></p><p> Most of the companies that have direct listed replaced the roadshow with an “analyst day,” where investors, including regular people, learn about the business. Coinbase, for example, hosted a Reddit: “Ask Us Anything.”</p><p><blockquote>大多数直接上市的公司都用 “分析师日 ”取代了路演，让包括普通人在内的投资者了解业务。例如，Coinbase 主办了一个 Reddit： “有任何问题都可以问我们”。</blockquote></p><p> But the lack of analyst coverage isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. “If you are Spotify you know you’ll get coverage so you don’t worry about it. People won’t ignore a $30 billion market cap company,” Wellington’s Carmen said.</p><p><blockquote>但缺乏分析师报道并不一定会破坏交易。“如果你是 Spotify，你就知道你会得到保险，所以你不用担心。人们不会忽视一家市值 300 亿美元的公司，”惠灵顿的卡门说。</blockquote></p><p> Skates didn’t seem fazed that Amplitude had to reach out to the analysts—and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 似乎并不担心 Amplitude 不得不联系分析师和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a little more work on part of companies to make sure all of the information is out there,” he said. “You still get the analyst coverage.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”公司还需要做更多的工作，以确保所有信息都在那里。“你仍然可以得到分析师的报道。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional IPOs, Skates said, get a “little more investor interest but that’s because they’re doing a massive multi-hundred [million] giveaway.</p><p><blockquote>Skates 说，传统的 IPO 会得到 “更多投资者的兴趣，但那是因为它们要提供数亿美元的巨额赠品。</blockquote></p><p> “As a CEO, you don’t want investors looking for a quick flip on stock. You really want those committed to the long term.”</p><p><blockquote>“作为首席执行官，你不希望投资者寻求快速炒股。你真正想要的是那些致力于长远发展的投资者”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/direct-listings-jump-why-this-path-to-going-public-is-getting-noticed-51638305261?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZIP":"ZipRecruiter Inc.","THRY":"Thryv Holdings Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQSP":"Squarespace Inc.","ABNB":"爱彼迎","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","AMPL":"AmplitudeE, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ASAN":"阿莎娜",".DJI":"道琼斯","WRBY":"Warby Parker Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/direct-listings-jump-why-this-path-to-going-public-is-getting-noticed-51638305261?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163333225","content_text":"Direct listings have jumped this year, but are still in the single digits because that path to the public markets is a narrow one—so narrow that most companies will keep choosing IPOs or SPAC mergers, experts tell Barron’s.\nSo far this year, 942 companies have gone public—raising $299 billion, numbers from Dealogic show. The totals for initial public offerings and special-purpose acquisition company mergers are 383 and 559, respectively.\nBy comparison, only seven firms have used a direct listing—raising not one dime, simply listing their stocks on exchanges. Still, the seven is more than half of the 13 companies to use a direct listing since 2018.\n“We may see more late-stage companies seeking to do direct listings,” said Eddie Molloy, co-head of equity capital markets for the Americas at Morgan Stanley. “They will not replace IPOs, but instead provide companies another avenue to the public markets.”\nIPO expert Jay Ritter also expects the number of direct listings to increase—as long as there are no blowups like an accounting scandal that could taint the method.\n“More and more companies will use direct listings to avoid selling underpriced shares in a traditional IPO or to avoid the dilution due to sponsor shares that come with a SPAC merger,” said Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor who studies IPOs.\nThe first direct listing came nearly four years ago, on April 3, 2018, when Spotify (SPOT) opened for trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The music-streaming service didn’t raise any money with its offering, but ended its first day as a public company with a nearly $27 billion valuation.\nIn the next two years, five companies direct listed: Watford Holdings, the reinsurance firm; the messaging app Slack Technologies; Palantir Technologies (PLTR), the data analytics company; Asana (ASAN), which offers project management software; and Thryv Holdings (THRY), a provider of marketing automation software for small businesses.\nThis year—and with a month still to go—the total stands at seven: Roblox (RBLX), the gaming platform; cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN);Squarespace (SQSP), the website design and hosting firm; the money transfer firm Wise; ZipRecruiter (ZIP), the employment marketplace; Amplitude (AMPL), the product analytics company; and eyewear start-up Warby Parker (WRBY).\nOne of the biggest public offerings is expected to come next year from Stripe, the online payment processor, which is considering a direct listing, Bloomberg reported. Stripe didn’t return requests for comment.\nOf the 13 direct listings since 2018, eight picked the NYSE and four settled on the Nasdaq. Wise listed its shares on the London Stock Exchange in July.\nThe mechanics\nThe appeal of a direct listing might not be obvious to the retail investor. After all, like an IPO or a SPAC merger, a direct listing requires the same paperwork—essentially a prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission—and roughly the same amount of time, 12 to 18 months, according to David Ethridge, co-lead of PwC’s IPO Services. The 12 to 18 months includes the time that companies need to prepare for life as a public entities, Ethridge said.\nBut there are real differences: how money is raised and where it goes, and the role played by investment banks.\nFirst, the money. Companies that opt for an IPO typically need fresh capital and use the offering to sell stock to investors. In a direct listing, shareholders—most often founders, investors who were in on the ground floor, and employees—sell their stock and they get the money, not the company.\nTwo experts—Magdalena Heinrich, Bank of America’s co-head of U.S. technology equity capital markets and venture capitalist Eric Liaw—point out that companies that don’t immediately need capital are better suited for a direct listing.\n“The key criteria for [companies] choosing a direct listing is whether their balance sheet is sufficiently strong that they don’t need to raise money in the offering,” said Liaw, a general partner at IVP, a venture-capital firm that has invested in over 400 companies, including 125 publicly traded entities.\nSecond, the investment banks. In an IPO, banks underwrite the sale of shares. They help write the prospectus, set the price for the offering, sell the stock to investors through their network the night before the company lists, help set the roadshow, and give support once the stock begins trading.\nConsequently, underwriting fees are the single biggest direct cost in an IPO— an average of 5% to 7% of gross IPO proceeds, Ethridge said.\nSeveral banks typically work on a big IPO and split the fees. For example, Airbnb (ABNB), the home sharing service, raised $3.5 billion last December with its public offering. Three dozen banks, led by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs,worked on the deal.\nIn a direct listing, banks act as financial advisors. Still, they help prepare the company’s registration statement, and assist with positioning the business, according to a guide on direct listings from the law firm Gibson Dunn. They also act as market makers and guide the price, said an investment banker who has worked on several deals.\nTheir fees are “materially” less, but just how much less is hard to determine with only a dozen direct listings, Ethridge said.\n“It wouldn’t surprise me if the total fees paid of gross spread is 50% of what might otherwise be paid [in IPOs],” he said.\nOddly enough, though, banks generally make as much with a direct listing because fewer work on a deal so the split is bigger, said Richard Truesdell, co-head of global capital markets at Davis Polk, who worked on the Spotify and Watford direct listings.\nCoinbase is a case in point. The crypto exchange ended its first day as a public company in March with a near $86 billion market cap. Its financial advisors totaled four, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.\n“Even though the total comp is substantially less, it’s not less per bank,” Truesdell said\nThe investors\nThe real winners in a direct listing could very well be investors—both institutions and regular people.\nInstitutions like direct listings because many don’t have a lockup—the 90 to 180 days that investors in an IPO have to wait before they can sell their shares. In a direct listing, investors can unload their shares as soon the company begins trading.\nNo lockup makes it easier for the likes of Wellington Management, which manages $1.4 trillion in assets, to build positions “right out of the shoot,” said Michael Carmen, a senior managing director at Wellington, which has helped take more than 2,000 companies public since 2010—four through direct listings.\nMore important, direct listings can be better for regular people. In an IPO, institutional investors will buy shares of a company at the offer price the night before the debut. Then, the next day, the stock will jump in price as all kinds of investors try to get shares.\n“Retail drives the pop that first day,” Truesdell, of Davis Polk, told Barron’s.\nThe upshot: The stock for a traditional IPO can often become too expensive for the regular people during its first day of trading. Consider Airbnb again. Shares more than doubled from the $68 IPO price, closing at $144.71.\n“With a direct listing, [retail investors] have all the same rights as other institutions out there,” said Wellington’s Carmen.\nAvoiding the first-day pop is one reason why Amplitude chose a direct listing, said Spenser Skates, co-founder and CEO. Amplitude rose a mere 9.6% from its opening price.\nWhen a company’s stock rises 30% or 50% or 100% in its debut, the IPO was mispriced, Skates said. Companies are “giving up a huge amount of value for no reason other than a good press headline,” Skates said.\nFor companies, analyst coverage is important. Analysts have clients. They rate stocks. They give outlooks. And direct listings don’t typically generate the same level of analyst coverage as IPOs, which have a roadshow.\nMost of the companies that have direct listed replaced the roadshow with an “analyst day,” where investors, including regular people, learn about the business. Coinbase, for example, hosted a Reddit: “Ask Us Anything.”\nBut the lack of analyst coverage isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. “If you are Spotify you know you’ll get coverage so you don’t worry about it. People won’t ignore a $30 billion market cap company,” Wellington’s Carmen said.\nSkates didn’t seem fazed that Amplitude had to reach out to the analysts—and investors.\n“It’s a little more work on part of companies to make sure all of the information is out there,” he said. “You still get the analyst coverage.”\nTraditional IPOs, Skates said, get a “little more investor interest but that’s because they’re doing a massive multi-hundred [million] giveaway.\n“As a CEO, you don’t want investors looking for a quick flip on stock. You really want those committed to the long term.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMPL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQSP":0.9,"WRBY":0.9,"ZIP":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"ASAN":0.9,"THRY":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609186307,"gmtCreate":1638252189264,"gmtModify":1638252189398,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609186307","repostId":"1141430877","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141430877","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638251771,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141430877?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron<blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官表示疫苗对奥密克戎的效果可能较差</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141430877","media":"Reuters","summary":"SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be a","content":"<p>SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>路透悉尼 11 月 30 日 - 制药商 Moderna 的负责人表示，新冠肺炎疫苗不太可能像以前那样有效对抗冠状病毒的奥密克戎变种，这引发了金融市场对疫情轨迹的新担忧。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta,\" Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“我认为，没有哪个世界（效率）能达到与达美航空相同的水平……”</blockquote></p><p> \"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为这将是一个物质下降。我只是不知道下降多少，因为我们需要等待数据。但我交谈过的所有科学家......都说‘这不会是好的’。”</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗耐药性可能会导致更多的疾病和住院，并延长疫情，他的言论引发了石油、股票和澳元等增长风险资产的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.</p><p><blockquote>班塞尔补充说，病毒用来感染人类细胞的蛋白质刺突有大量突变，这意味着目前的疫苗作物可能需要修改。</blockquote></p><p> He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.</p><p><blockquote>他早些时候在 CNBC 上表示，可能需要几个月的时间才能开始运送一种确实有效对抗奥密克戎的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Fear of the new variant, despite a lack of information about its severity, has already triggered delays to some economic reopening plans and the reimposition of some travel and movement restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管缺乏关于其严重性的信息，但对新变种的恐惧已经引发了一些经济重新开放计划的延迟，以及一些旅行和行动限制的重新实施。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron<blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官表示疫苗对奥密克戎的效果可能较差</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron<blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官表示疫苗对奥密克戎的效果可能较差</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 13:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>路透悉尼 11 月 30 日 - 制药商 Moderna 的负责人表示，新冠肺炎疫苗不太可能像以前那样有效对抗冠状病毒的奥密克戎变种，这引发了金融市场对疫情轨迹的新担忧。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta,\" Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“我认为，没有哪个世界（效率）能达到与达美航空相同的水平……”</blockquote></p><p> \"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为这将是一个物质下降。我只是不知道下降多少，因为我们需要等待数据。但我交谈过的所有科学家......都说‘这不会是好的’。”</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗耐药性可能会导致更多的疾病和住院，并延长疫情，他的言论引发了石油、股票和澳元等增长风险资产的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.</p><p><blockquote>班塞尔补充说，病毒用来感染人类细胞的蛋白质刺突有大量突变，这意味着目前的疫苗作物可能需要修改。</blockquote></p><p> He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.</p><p><blockquote>他早些时候在 CNBC 上表示，可能需要几个月的时间才能开始运送一种确实有效对抗奥密克戎的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Fear of the new variant, despite a lack of information about its severity, has already triggered delays to some economic reopening plans and the reimposition of some travel and movement restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管缺乏关于其严重性的信息，但对新变种的恐惧已经引发了一些经济重新开放计划的延迟，以及一些旅行和行动限制的重新实施。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-moderna-ceo-says-vaccines-055048321.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-moderna-ceo-says-vaccines-055048321.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141430877","content_text":"SYDNEY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.\n\"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta,\" Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.\n\"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'\"\nVaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar.\nBancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified.\nHe had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.\nFear of the new variant, despite a lack of information about its severity, has already triggered delays to some economic reopening plans and the reimposition of some travel and movement restrictions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600588502,"gmtCreate":1638174265738,"gmtModify":1638174362516,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600588502","repostId":"1124072014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124072014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638140765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124072014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124072014","media":"yahoo","summary":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor","content":"<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周归来，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。共识经济学家预计 11 月份将恢复 50 万个工作岗位，招聘速度仅比 10 月份的 53.1 万个工作岗位略有放缓。失业率预计也将从10月份的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情浪潮的风险越来越大以及可用工人供应的减少将很快影响就业增长。”上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更明显的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可能会下降。”<i>恶化</i>阿什沃斯补充说：“在未来几个月里，覆盖 1 亿 [万] 工人的联邦疫苗授权将于 1 月 4 日开始。这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计 10 月份平均时薪将[环比]增长 0.4%”。</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长 5.0%，继 10 月份已经增长 4.9% 之后进一步加速，这是自 2 月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张——虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利——也加剧了人们对持续通胀的担忧。经济分析局上周公布的 10 月份个人消费支出 (PCE) 平减指数显示，该指数年增长率为 5.0%，为 1990 年以来最大涨幅。核心 PCE（美联储首选的剔除波动的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨 4.1%，为三十年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据反映了紧张的劳动力市场，并预示着 11 月份就业报告可能会强劲。上周，首次申请失业救济人数降至 19.9 万人的 52 年来最低点，打破了疫情时代之前的低点和疫情之前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均水平。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间激烈的劳动力竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。共识经济学家预计，11 月份劳动力参与率只会小幅上升，达到 61.7%，高于 10 月份的 61.6%，但远低于 2020 年 2 月的 63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>让经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体的就业增长得到公平对待，已成为美联储的一个重点。这些方面仍有待弥合的距离也是美联储在货币政策支持方面保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列比预期更热门的通胀报告之后，这些报告似乎需要更加鹰派的政策倾斜和加息速度快于预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长，这进一步表明美联储将继续关注劳动力市场作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳在上周的一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已被大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席 11 月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10 月份待售房屋销售环比（预期 0.7%，9 月份为 -2.3%）；达拉斯美联储 11 月制造业活动指数（预期 17.0，10 月 14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，9月环比（预期1.2%，8月1.0%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月环比（预期 1.30%，8 月 1.17%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月（上月为 19.66%）；MNI芝加哥采购经理人指数，11月（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数，11 月（预期 110.0，10 月 113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA 抵押贷款申请，11 月 26 日（前一周 1.8%）；11 月 ADP 就业变化（预计 515,000 人，10 月 571,000 人）；Markit 美国 11 月制造业 PMI 最终值（上月为 59.1）；10 月份建筑支出环比（预期 0.5%，9 月份为 -0.5%）；ISM 制造业，11 月（预期 61.0，10 月 60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11 月（10 月-71.7%）；截至 11 月 27 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为 199,000 人）；持续索赔，11 月 20 日（前一周 2,049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11 月非农就业人数变化（预计 500,000 人，10 月 531,000 人）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11 月份平均小时收益环比（预期 0.4%，10 月份 0.4%）；11 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.0%，10 月份 4.9%）；Markit 美国服务业 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 57.0）；Markit 美国综合 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10 月份最终订单（先前印刷-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>收益日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General (DG)、Kroger (KR) 开市前；Ulta Beauty (ULTA) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovember jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周归来，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。共识经济学家预计 11 月份将恢复 50 万个工作岗位，招聘速度仅比 10 月份的 53.1 万个工作岗位略有放缓。失业率预计也将从10月份的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情浪潮的风险越来越大以及可用工人供应的减少将很快影响就业增长。”上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更明显的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可能会下降。”<i>恶化</i>阿什沃斯补充说：“在未来几个月里，覆盖 1 亿 [万] 工人的联邦疫苗授权将于 1 月 4 日开始。这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计 10 月份平均时薪将[环比]增长 0.4%”。</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长 5.0%，继 10 月份已经增长 4.9% 之后进一步加速，这是自 2 月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张——虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利——也加剧了人们对持续通胀的担忧。经济分析局上周公布的 10 月份个人消费支出 (PCE) 平减指数显示，该指数年增长率为 5.0%，为 1990 年以来最大涨幅。核心 PCE（美联储首选的剔除波动的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨 4.1%，为三十年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据反映了紧张的劳动力市场，并预示着 11 月份就业报告可能会强劲。上周，首次申请失业救济人数降至 19.9 万人的 52 年来最低点，打破了疫情时代之前的低点和疫情之前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均水平。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间激烈的劳动力竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。共识经济学家预计，11 月份劳动力参与率只会小幅上升，达到 61.7%，高于 10 月份的 61.6%，但远低于 2020 年 2 月的 63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>让经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体的就业增长得到公平对待，已成为美联储的一个重点。这些方面仍有待弥合的距离也是美联储在货币政策支持方面保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列比预期更热门的通胀报告之后，这些报告似乎需要更加鹰派的政策倾斜和加息速度快于预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长，这进一步表明美联储将继续关注劳动力市场作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳在上周的一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已被大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席 11 月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10 月份待售房屋销售环比（预期 0.7%，9 月份为 -2.3%）；达拉斯美联储 11 月制造业活动指数（预期 17.0，10 月 14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，9月环比（预期1.2%，8月1.0%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月环比（预期 1.30%，8 月 1.17%）；S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月（上月为 19.66%）；MNI芝加哥采购经理人指数，11月（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数，11 月（预期 110.0，10 月 113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA 抵押贷款申请，11 月 26 日（前一周 1.8%）；11 月 ADP 就业变化（预计 515,000 人，10 月 571,000 人）；Markit 美国 11 月制造业 PMI 最终值（上月为 59.1）；10 月份建筑支出环比（预期 0.5%，9 月份为 -0.5%）；ISM 制造业，11 月（预期 61.0，10 月 60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11 月（10 月-71.7%）；截至 11 月 27 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为 199,000 人）；持续索赔，11 月 20 日（前一周 2,049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11 月非农就业人数变化（预计 500,000 人，10 月 531,000 人）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11 月份平均小时收益环比（预期 0.4%，10 月份 0.4%）；11 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.0%，10 月份 4.9%）；Markit 美国服务业 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 57.0）；Markit 美国综合 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10 月份最终订单（先前印刷-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>收益日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General (DG)、Kroger (KR) 开市前；Ulta Beauty (ULTA) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124072014","content_text":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.\nThe Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.\n\"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.\n\"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply couldworsenover the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"\nOn a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.\nGrowing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.\nOther recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.\nEven given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.\nReturning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.\n\"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday:Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)\nTuesday:FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)\nWednesday:MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book\nThursday:Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)\nFriday:Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday:No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday:Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close\nWednesday:PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close\nThursday:Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close\nFriday:No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875511450,"gmtCreate":1637668033202,"gmtModify":1637668033327,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875511450","repostId":"1172702648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172702648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637667706,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1172702648?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Cybertruck reservation backlog reaches $80 billion in value based on latest tally<blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉 Cybertruck 预订积压价值达到 800 亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172702648","media":"Electrek","summary":"Based on the latest tally, Tesla has a backlog of over 1.2 million Cybertruck reservations worth ove","content":"<p>Based on the latest tally, Tesla has a backlog of over 1.2 million Cybertruck reservations worth over $80 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉积压了超过 120 万辆 Cybertruck 预订，价值超过 800 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s still no production in sight.</p><p><blockquote>但目前还看不到生产的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck almost two years ago to the day.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在大约两年前的今天推出了 Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> The electric pickup truck was supposed to be in production already, but the automaker delayed the program as it focused on growing Model Y production.</p><p><blockquote>这款电动皮卡车本应已经投入生产，但该汽车制造商推迟了该计划，因为它专注于增加 Model Y 的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s best estimate now puts the start of Cybertruck production in late 2022.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的最佳估计是，Cybertruck 的生产将于 2022 年底开始。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Tesla is still taking reservations for the electric pickup truck.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉仍在接受电动皮卡车的预订。</blockquote></p><p> The Cybertruck reservation program has been quite successful.</p><p><blockquote>Cybertruck预订计划非常成功。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla received over 250,000 reservations for the Cybertruck within a week of unveiling the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官 Elon Musk 宣布，特斯拉在推出 Cybertruck 一周内收到了超过 25 万份预订。</blockquote></p><p> Generally, Tesla receives a lot of reservations early after an unveiling, and then it tapers off — but that wasn’t the case with the Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，特斯拉在亮相后不久就会收到很多预订，然后就会逐渐减少--但 Cybertruck 的情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Even throughout the pandemic, sources told us that some Tesla stores were getting hundreds of Cybertruck reservations per week, and Cybertruck pre-orders even helped boost sales.</p><p><blockquote>即使在整个疫情，消息人士告诉我们，一些特斯拉商店每周都会收到数百份 Cybertruck 预订，Cybertruck 预购甚至有助于促进销售。</blockquote></p><p> The number was last updated in June 2020, and at that point, the number had risen to over 650,000 Cybertruck reservations.</p><p><blockquote>该数字最后一次更新是在 2020 年 6 月，当时该数字已上升到超过 65 万个 Cybertruck 预订量。</blockquote></p><p> A crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally by the Cybertruck forum with over 28,000 entries put reservations at over 1 million back in May 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Cybertruck 论坛众包的 Cybertruck 预订统计显示，2021 年 5 月，预订量超过 28,000 个条目，预订量超过 100 万次。</blockquote></p><p> Now the tally estimates that Tesla has over 1,270,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck:</p><p><blockquote>现在，统计估计特斯拉电动皮卡车的预订量超过 1,270,000 辆：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be2bdc3adecef01ce7ea51655673dac\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"658\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The tally also collects information on the reservations that show the vast majority are ordering the Dual Motor and Tri Motor versions of the Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>统计还收集了预订信息，显示绝大多数人订购的是双电机和三电机版本的Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> As we recently reported,Tesla has decided to remove references to trims and pricing of the Cybertruckfrom its website last month.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们最近报道的那样， 特斯拉上个月决定从其网站上删除有关 Cybertruck 装饰和定价的信息。</blockquote></p><p> But based on the prices previously disclosed by Tesla, it would put the average sale price at $58,000 and the value of the reservations at over $80 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但根据特斯拉此前披露的价格，平均售价为 58,000 美元，预订价值超过 800 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, the fact that Tesla requires only a $100 deposit for the Cybertruck (used to be $1,000 for Model 3/Y) makes it less of a commitment to place a reservation resulting in the take rate from reservation to order is expected to be lower.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，事实上，特斯拉只需要100美元的Cybertruck押金（过去Model 3/Y为1000美元），这使得预订的承诺减少，导致从预订到订单的接受率预计会更低。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, Tesla is certainly leading the electric pickup truck market in terms of reservations, but several companies are beating the company to market.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，就预订量而言，特斯拉无疑是电动皮卡市场的领导者，但有几家公司正在击败该公司进入市场。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has already started deliveries of the R1T electric pickup. GM is expected to start deliveries of the Hummer EV pickup by the end of next month, and Ford will deliver the F-150 Lightning next year.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian已经开始交付 R1T 电动皮卡。通用汽车预计将于下月底开始交付悍马电动皮卡，福特将于明年交付 F-150 Lightning。</blockquote></p><p> But the real race is not who can deliver the first electric pickup truck. It’s who can achieve volume production and deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>但真正的竞争并不是谁能交付第一辆电动皮卡车。关键在于谁能实现批量生产和交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1627037122897","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Cybertruck reservation backlog reaches $80 billion in value based on latest tally<blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉 Cybertruck 预订积压价值达到 800 亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Cybertruck reservation backlog reaches $80 billion in value based on latest tally<blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉 Cybertruck 预订积压价值达到 800 亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Electrek</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 19:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Based on the latest tally, Tesla has a backlog of over 1.2 million Cybertruck reservations worth over $80 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新统计，特斯拉积压了超过 120 万辆 Cybertruck 预订，价值超过 800 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s still no production in sight.</p><p><blockquote>但目前还看不到生产的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck almost two years ago to the day.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在大约两年前的今天推出了 Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> The electric pickup truck was supposed to be in production already, but the automaker delayed the program as it focused on growing Model Y production.</p><p><blockquote>这款电动皮卡车本应已经投入生产，但该汽车制造商推迟了该计划，因为它专注于增加 Model Y 的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s best estimate now puts the start of Cybertruck production in late 2022.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的最佳估计是，Cybertruck 的生产将于 2022 年底开始。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, Tesla is still taking reservations for the electric pickup truck.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉仍在接受电动皮卡车的预订。</blockquote></p><p> The Cybertruck reservation program has been quite successful.</p><p><blockquote>Cybertruck预订计划非常成功。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla received over 250,000 reservations for the Cybertruck within a week of unveiling the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官 Elon Musk 宣布，特斯拉在推出 Cybertruck 一周内收到了超过 25 万份预订。</blockquote></p><p> Generally, Tesla receives a lot of reservations early after an unveiling, and then it tapers off — but that wasn’t the case with the Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，特斯拉在亮相后不久就会收到很多预订，然后就会逐渐减少--但 Cybertruck 的情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Even throughout the pandemic, sources told us that some Tesla stores were getting hundreds of Cybertruck reservations per week, and Cybertruck pre-orders even helped boost sales.</p><p><blockquote>即使在整个疫情，消息人士告诉我们，一些特斯拉商店每周都会收到数百份 Cybertruck 预订，Cybertruck 预购甚至有助于促进销售。</blockquote></p><p> The number was last updated in June 2020, and at that point, the number had risen to over 650,000 Cybertruck reservations.</p><p><blockquote>该数字最后一次更新是在 2020 年 6 月，当时该数字已上升到超过 65 万个 Cybertruck 预订量。</blockquote></p><p> A crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally by the Cybertruck forum with over 28,000 entries put reservations at over 1 million back in May 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Cybertruck 论坛众包的 Cybertruck 预订统计显示，2021 年 5 月，预订量超过 28,000 个条目，预订量超过 100 万次。</blockquote></p><p> Now the tally estimates that Tesla has over 1,270,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck:</p><p><blockquote>现在，统计估计特斯拉电动皮卡车的预订量超过 1,270,000 辆：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be2bdc3adecef01ce7ea51655673dac\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"658\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The tally also collects information on the reservations that show the vast majority are ordering the Dual Motor and Tri Motor versions of the Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>统计还收集了预订信息，显示绝大多数人订购的是双电机和三电机版本的Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> As we recently reported,Tesla has decided to remove references to trims and pricing of the Cybertruckfrom its website last month.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们最近报道的那样， 特斯拉上个月决定从其网站上删除有关 Cybertruck 装饰和定价的信息。</blockquote></p><p> But based on the prices previously disclosed by Tesla, it would put the average sale price at $58,000 and the value of the reservations at over $80 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但根据特斯拉此前披露的价格，平均售价为 58,000 美元，预订价值超过 800 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, the fact that Tesla requires only a $100 deposit for the Cybertruck (used to be $1,000 for Model 3/Y) makes it less of a commitment to place a reservation resulting in the take rate from reservation to order is expected to be lower.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，事实上，特斯拉只需要100美元的Cybertruck押金（过去Model 3/Y为1000美元），这使得预订的承诺减少，导致从预订到订单的接受率预计会更低。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, Tesla is certainly leading the electric pickup truck market in terms of reservations, but several companies are beating the company to market.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，就预订量而言，特斯拉无疑是电动皮卡市场的领导者，但有几家公司正在击败该公司进入市场。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has already started deliveries of the R1T electric pickup. GM is expected to start deliveries of the Hummer EV pickup by the end of next month, and Ford will deliver the F-150 Lightning next year.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian已经开始交付 R1T 电动皮卡。通用汽车预计将于下月底开始交付悍马电动皮卡，福特将于明年交付 F-150 Lightning。</blockquote></p><p> But the real race is not who can deliver the first electric pickup truck. It’s who can achieve volume production and deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>但真正的竞争并不是谁能交付第一辆电动皮卡车。关键在于谁能实现批量生产和交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://electrek.co/2021/11/23/tesla-cybertruck-reservation-backlog-80-billion-value-tally/\">Electrek</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://electrek.co/2021/11/23/tesla-cybertruck-reservation-backlog-80-billion-value-tally/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172702648","content_text":"Based on the latest tally, Tesla has a backlog of over 1.2 million Cybertruck reservations worth over $80 billion.\nBut there’s still no production in sight.\nTesla unveiled the Cybertruck almost two years ago to the day.\nThe electric pickup truck was supposed to be in production already, but the automaker delayed the program as it focused on growing Model Y production.\nTesla’s best estimate now puts the start of Cybertruck production in late 2022.\nIn the meantime, Tesla is still taking reservations for the electric pickup truck.\nThe Cybertruck reservation program has been quite successful.\nCEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla received over 250,000 reservations for the Cybertruck within a week of unveiling the vehicle.\nGenerally, Tesla receives a lot of reservations early after an unveiling, and then it tapers off — but that wasn’t the case with the Cybertruck.\nEven throughout the pandemic, sources told us that some Tesla stores were getting hundreds of Cybertruck reservations per week, and Cybertruck pre-orders even helped boost sales.\nThe number was last updated in June 2020, and at that point, the number had risen to over 650,000 Cybertruck reservations.\nA crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally by the Cybertruck forum with over 28,000 entries put reservations at over 1 million back in May 2021.\nNow the tally estimates that Tesla has over 1,270,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck:\n\nThe tally also collects information on the reservations that show the vast majority are ordering the Dual Motor and Tri Motor versions of the Cybertruck.\nAs we recently reported,Tesla has decided to remove references to trims and pricing of the Cybertruckfrom its website last month.\nBut based on the prices previously disclosed by Tesla, it would put the average sale price at $58,000 and the value of the reservations at over $80 billion.\nTo be fair, the fact that Tesla requires only a $100 deposit for the Cybertruck (used to be $1,000 for Model 3/Y) makes it less of a commitment to place a reservation resulting in the take rate from reservation to order is expected to be lower.\nEither way, Tesla is certainly leading the electric pickup truck market in terms of reservations, but several companies are beating the company to market.\nRivian has already started deliveries of the R1T electric pickup. GM is expected to start deliveries of the Hummer EV pickup by the end of next month, and Ford will deliver the F-150 Lightning next year.\nBut the real race is not who can deliver the first electric pickup truck. It’s who can achieve volume production and deliveries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873559472,"gmtCreate":1636966158406,"gmtModify":1636966158838,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873559472","repostId":"2183046479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873100237,"gmtCreate":1636869669032,"gmtModify":1636869669205,"author":{"id":"3575241823069388","authorId":"3575241823069388","name":"Ivanhojh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41f0bf4ce9ad13477b3d5ba49c8d025","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575241823069388","idStr":"3575241823069388"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873100237","repostId":"1103944030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}